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This is Peter Kafka, the host of Channels, the show about what happens when media and tech collide. And this week, I'm talking to Katie Drummond, who runs Wire. She's found a way to breathe new life into that publication by... covering news. We started covering Doge, like several stories a day, every single day. And after like a week, I sort of looked around and was like, where is everyone else? That's this week. on channels, wherever you listen to your favorite podcast.
Hey, everyone. Welcome to Serve, brought to you by Amazon Prime. So what we do is we do a bunch of picks at the beginning of the tournament, and then we regroup like a week later and tell you what we messed up. This is the Redraw Show. brought to you by Amazon Prime. It's keeping her rackets a little bit closer. Mira Andreva rolls center, center. He lost three games in a pro match. Doesn't happen very often. Draper ran through Fronseca. We will cover that more.
During the Redraw Show, Matty Keys and Sophia Cannon, we said one of the things I got right was Matty Keys was going to get through that match, but it was going to be very tough. And... Madison Keys got through that match and it was very tough. Don't worry. I will get to the dumpster fire picks that I had later without being too self-congratulatory early. Kazakina, always a great story when she does well beating Paola Bedosa.
Bublik threw, Nori just won, Greeks for one. We're doing this right before the Novak match. We have to get it out so that you guys can consume it. So I will operate under the assumption that Novak will win that match against Misalich. But we will get there in a bit. J.W., what were your takeaways on site today? And welcome into SERV. Hey, thanks. Good to see you, buddy. Yeah, good to see you. I mean, there were some interesting results. Madison Keys.
You know, let's not gloss it over. She was down match point and sort of remembered that, yeah, I'm the one who, I got to keep the Grand Slam bit alive. I got to keep winning majors. So, yeah, when you said she had a tight match with Sonia Kennan, you did not underestimate that. Yeah, Sinner, the shortest match in the men's tournament so far. Who did he beat? Oh, yeah, LaHeshka. It's not as though he beat, you know, some qualifier that just...
Walked in from Tashkent. Beating a quality player and giving up three games, that's a statement. Yeah, what else happened? I mean, today we have Haley Batiste. We have the most Americans, male and female. into the round of 16. This is the most in 40 years. Love it. So good stuff from American tennis. Yeah, I mean, let's, you know, one thing about, there have been a lot of sort of tight and tough and fun matches, but they...
haven't tended to involve the top seeds. I mean, look at the women's side, especially, and it's chalk, chalk, chalk, take an alien Taylor Fritz out of the equation. A lot of men surviving as well. Again, we're both working on the assumption that Novak is going to get through over...
A qualifier? They had him up as Novak versus MISC, and I thought they just picked a miscellaneous player. But that is not the case. It's Filip Misalic, a qualifier. Good for him for getting this far. But yeah, I think this is all shaping up very nicely for... for week two, and yet EQ and I need to do some things over again. Don't we need? We do. Is it called Second Surf? I get it. I get it. Way to go. Way to go.
Do you guys want to hear your records so far? Just for the, cause I know I'm going to suck at this. Yeah. I kind of made happy picks up until certain points. I didn't know we were keeping it tracks that way. You're such an asshole. Go ahead. The women's Andy is one behind John 65 and 47. John is 66 and 46. The men's John. has a solid lead 62 and 50. Andy, 59 and 53. Didn't know we were doing this.
Uh, yeah, I picked every American who I thought was going to lose in the third round. Every single one just was worried about quarter semifinals. Yeah. Yeah. It's nice to make the rules up as we go. Isn't it producer Mike? You did pretty good, man. Yeah. It's great. Anyways.
Crazy idea of keeping score, too, by the way. Yeah, I know. I'm only hitting four hands. I didn't realize if it went in or out of the court, it was going to show up on the scoreboard behind us. Shut up, nerd. Let's keep going. All right. We do a men's and women's first. Let's rip through the women's. Give Novak a little bit more time. Maybe dust this guy quickly. All right. So Sabalenka versus Anna Samova. I had Clara Tawson. You had Anna Samova.
I was wrong. Any reason to not take Sabalenka over Anna Samova? John Wertheim, expert, resident expert on Served. Let's just sort of do a blanket. None of this is personal. None of this is critiquing players. Anasimovas had a very nice tournament. Actually, he tends to a lot in majors, by the way.
But I think Sabalenka is, I think both of us picked her, and I don't see any reason to change. She's looking good. All right. Saba, Samsonova, and Queen Wen. I think I had Schneider through to this run. Did I take Schneider to the quarters? Yeah, you had it pretty far. Ugh. All right. Well, I'm going to take Zhang. JW, Samsonova, Queenwen. Did I miss that one too? Probably not.
Andy has the results. Give me the results. All right. Zhang Chen win. No, she's been, you know. Oh, he had it. Damn it. She's, all right. Let's, let's, let's, Sabalenka Zhang. Interesting match, but we can get to that in a second. No, you can. I mean, we can do it this way. We both had Saba. I'll take it also. Are you going to take him now? I'm sticking with it, but do note that...
Zhang won that last encounter. Sabalenka had her number for years, but Zhang is coming off a clay court win against Sabalenka. So that'll be a good match. But no, I think Sabalenka gets through. All right, down below, Paolini, Svitolina. I want to say that we both had them. And I took Paolini and you took Svitolina in this one. I'm still taking Paolini. And are you still taking Svitolina? Nothing's changed. They both look good. Yeah, they both look good. And I mean...
I have so much regard for Svitolina. See, now he's going to get credit for this one, too. This ranking system is backwards. All right, forget it. We're saving our do-overs. We're saving our mulligans for later. I'll stick with Svitolina. You got to ride with who you pick. Yeah, exactly. Rabakina.
We did not have this. We had, well, okay. So we had, I had Bencic beating Robach in the first round, but Bencic pulled out. So one thing I can't solve for with any of these is injuries, which we've had a lot of this tournament. But Bencic, I had Bencic losing to Ostapenko. We both had Ostapenko against Iga. JW, you had Ostapenko over Iga. This could take a swing because he had Paolini down and he had Iga down. This could swing it. This could bring it back to Papa here.
Who do you like, Rabakina or Spiontek? Oh, man. You know, I think Spiontek was doing backflips when she saw Ostapenko lost, but she's not. great against Rabakina either. I guess I think I gave you credit yesterday. I think we talked about Iga coming here and it's good vibes on the surface and she can...
whip that forehand. She knows the court. She's gotten, I think, it's feeling a lot like Iga. I think she's, I'm not saying she's winning this event, but I think she's sort of played herself back into some good form, good confidence. I think Iga gets her. All right. I have Iga over Rabakina and I have Iga over Paolini. Are you going Paolini over Sviantek?
No, I got a stick. What did I have? I think that's Svitolina. Did I have Svitolina? You had Svitolina as the champion. Come on. No, you didn't. I'm just projecting over what... I like Svitolina. You going Svitolina semis? It's two. I mean, honestly. I mean, you had it there at the beginning. You had Svitolina to the semis. Yeah. All right. You got to.
And I went crazy. But I give, can we just pause and give Iga some credit? There were so many question marks. Who said, I'm getting old, would Nicki Minaj sing Pound the Alarm? I mean, there was some real sort of warning bells going on. She has, Iga's played herself, no alarm. She's played herself back into form. You know what's cool is that we finally came up with a musician that Sean might know. He's like, who's Nicolas Minaj? Nicole Minaj? Who's Nicolas? All right, I have...
I had Iga to the semis. I went crazy. Went with this crazy pick. Iga to the semis. Still have Iga to the semis. Still have Saba to the final. You like Saba Lenka to the final. Still, JW? I do. All right. Ride with that. Okay, so there's some daylight. I know I'm down, not out. Top of the mountain, I think, I want to say I had, I forget who I had. Did I have Osaka? Ooh.
You guys had a soccer going pretty far. This was not great. We both have Andreva to the quarters. Are you changing anything in that matchup against Kazakina? Do note Kazakina playing a Russian in a round of 16 matches. Interesting dynamic. But no, we all have great admiration for Kazakina. But I think Andreva's been so...
She's been great on the court. She's been so sort of authoritative in her tennis. And then she's been so cool off it. She's a star. I don't think she won this event, but I think she gets back to the semis. Pretty cool when you have a wild card in their home country. Getting to the round of 16, Boisson. Beating Jacquemont. In the third round. I had Pagoula going through. I think we had the conversation. Ooh.
What did you have? You had Muhova. See, there's just all. Yeah, but that's what you were saying about Bencic, right? I mean, you can't account for help. Yeah, but it only works that way when it's convenient for me. Okay. Yeah. Uh, I have Pagula through JW. Do you have Pagula or a bustle? Uh, I don't think she'd be Jesse Pagula though. All right. Uh, Pagula Andreva. I'm going to stick with Andreva just cause I had her.
uh through as did you are you gonna go jess i i think i i love jess is like just like the reasoning she was not playing well going to this tournament but she's just like that person now who you expect is gonna make runs in majors which is counter to the narrative that she had had three years ago. So props to Jeff. She's awesome. Yep. And today she played Vondrosova, who was a former finalist here. You know, rough start, sort of Apache.
First hour, no problem. I'll clean it up. I'll win in three. She saves her best results for the majors. I give her a lot of credit. I think Andreva, though, is my semifinalist there. All right. And then on the bottom, I think we all – we were – We both had keys to the quarters. Haley Baptiste had a great run. She has been really fun to watch. A lot of variety, a lot of power. That will be a tough one for Maddie Keys. It's not often she goes against someone who...
you know, can kind of attempt to go blow for blow on pace of shot. I am not going to choose against Matty Keys. New life after saving that match point against Kennen, who, by the way, is an awesome story still. A lot of time for Kennen. Keys or Baptiste? Keys, but I echo your sentiments. Haley Baptiste, that's a great revelation this tournament. Coco, we've all had Coco going through.
I had critique. That was not, that was not the one. Um, that was not the one. That's another injury. That's one that I would not make if I knew we were keeping score, by the way, that was pure respect, not at the tip of the cap. And now I know. And you do it again. Like GI Joe used to say. I can't remember what they said. Keys and golf. Assuming you're taking golf through against Alexandrova. I am. I got to tell you, it's really intriguing because...
Coco has had a few of these patches, including one against Buskova today, where just the game goes off. And to her great credit, she figures out her way back onto the path. But if Maddie sort of picks apart... That forehand or takes advantage of one of these walkabouts or these lapses or cocoa service and clicking Maddy's got a real chance here Man, I don't I think I'm gonna do my first switcheroo. I'm thinking keys
I don't disagree. I think this was one of the ones where Maddie seemed to have a tougher draw. I was really worried about that Kennan match. She obviously came through that, but it was more just you like Goff's draw. I'm not flipping. But I do think that match is popcorn. I'm sure the odds will come out and Coco will be the betting favorite. I think that's a pick-em match. I'm not going to reverse my call. I still have Coco.
into the final so andreva and keys you have who are you taking in that one jw oh man um I think I talked to Matty. That was, you know, I get parked on these matches. So I can tell you everything you want about Matty Keys and Kennen. I can't tell you a whole lot about the other matches that happened at the time. Matty Keys on this surface.
She sort of sandbags it. She's really good on clay. Yes, she is. She's been to semis before. Exactly. She's been to the semis on a day like today. I mean, some of this is sort of weather dependent. All of it, a long way of saying, I kind of like Matty Keys to... I don't think she's going to go two legs of the Grand Slam, but I could see her getting to the final very easily. You could? I do. You do. Ooh, there we go. Ooh, okay. That's why we redraw, right? You know what?
Screw it. Why don't you just knock out the first two legs of the Grand Slam for Matty Keys? Just do it. Right over Saba. Do it right now. I will not go quite that. I'll go right up to that line. I will not transgress. All right. So I still have Sabalenka over Goff. JW, the old switcheroo. Sabalenka over Matty Keys in the final of our...
eat shit redraw show of which I'm eating a lot, apparently such as life. Uh, here we go. We'll take a little trip over to let's, uh, let's take a quick little break. Fine. Men's draw right after this. Support for the show comes from Amazon Prime. You might know Prime for fast free delivery or maybe as your favorite place to stream shows, movies, and sports. But it's also a great way to dive deeper into your hobbies and passions.
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I'm Claire Parker. And I'm Ashley Hamilton. And this week we're discussing Hilaria Baldwin. Why does she have so many kids? She will not answer that question for you in a way that you want it answered, but she will respond to every single thing ever written about her in a tabloid. deeply cryptic way. She's taking on the tough questions like does ADD make you speak with a Spanish accent? Does an older man guarantee happiness in a marriage?
We talked to Eliza McClam and Julia Hava from Bingetopia podcast. They are Hilaria Baldwin experts, and they dove deep with us on Hilaria's latest memoir, Manual Not Included. You can listen to new episodes of Celebrity Memoir Book Club every time. Tuesday on Amazon music. All right. We are back to the redraw show brought to you by Amazon prime. And we are going to fly through these men's picks. Uh, only difference really.
I think we both had fees through, let me get organized. We both had fees, the center, center fees withdrawals. So it's center Rublev. Any reason to think that we're not choosing center here? Maybe he didn't like his performance 0-1-2 against Lehechka. Yeah, I was going to say, if only he... Right. A lot of tread on the tire. That was the most... I was just reading this. That was the most decisive major win of his career.
I think it's a proper player on the middle Saturday of a major, and he gives up three games. Yeah, I think more to come on this theme, but I think Sinner rolls here. You don't think he was a little off in that third set? He gave up two games. Remember I said maybe the fatigue of Rome may be getting to it. I think he's doing okay. All right. In the section of the draw with Demon. Menchik. Menchik. Menchik.
Either way I say it, we'll get in trouble. Yeah, you're going to get yelled at. It's obviously Bublik over Roka in the third round on his least favorite surface. So Bublik, Draper. Draper, I'm going to pencil him in. There's just no chance that JW's not going to pick him through. The quarters will save you the suspense. Draper is a man, by the way. He's crushing it. He is.
Everything that he has improved on in the last year, he wasn't ranked super high last year at this tournament. I want to say I don't think he was seeded. He wasn't seeded. He's been the third best player in the world this year to date. And he's looked like the third best player in this tournament so far. Momfis is a brutal draw here. And then the hyped matchup with Fonseca. And, you know, I...
We said in our last show, I love Fonseca. I love the story. I love the potential. I do think we're trying to make him into a contender very early. Like you heard a lot of commentators. playing footsie with him being the winner here and saying that without even like having to defend that position at all. And now...
believing fully in the potential, the upside, loving the story is not the same. You can't skip steps, right? Like you have to like build shot tolerance. You have to build defense. You have to build strategy. You have to build all these things. Draper has built those over the last two years to where he's not just potential. He's not just good sometimes. He's pretty much good all the time now. And then when he hits that.
That next level, he's dominant. He was dominant against Fonseca. Strategically, strength-wise, his ability to accept pace to his backhand and turn it. And then, you know, Fonseca's lack of ability. And actually, it's this weird thing where like forehand is so big. There are different types of things. When people are bullying him to that forehand side, which obviously the lefty, you know, the high-end lefty versus the righty, that kind of exposed some different things in Fonseca.
But defending on the forehand side is not the same as going after a dead ball on the forehand side. The ooh and ah is totally credible with Fonseca when he gets two feet under him and just rips it. I don't know that I've seen a lot of people create speed like that. defending out of the corners and shot tolerance. That's something we are going to see improve over the next year, over the next two years. When to step back on returns, trying to take Draper's serve on the ad side.
two feet inside and letting him saw you off and or kick T or fight. Again, I'm beating a dead horse here, but he finally. late in the second set, stood back and started taking rips on that first ball and got a break point. Didn't end up breaking, but Draper had to fight off a break point in that second set. He's just, he's brilliant.
And then when you go up against someone who is three, four, five in the world right now, it's different gravy. And we can't skip steps. We can simultaneously believe in his upside. We can simultaneously. believe that he could be a future number one, that he could be a Grand Slam winner. And also Draper is a man. Like he is, I mean, he is, he is there. He is built. He is ready. He looks like a future Grand Slam winner. I've been.
came into this event singing his praises for the last couple months like everyone else has. He's only built on that. Last year in that four setter against Monfils that was so physical, we would have been looking for cramps. fatigue. He's learned how to pace himself in matches. He's learned how to, you know, the fitness is there, the back end, he can stick now.
He is very content sailing back on second serves and just ripping forehands. He seems like he's complete control of his devices. Anyways, props to Draper. We will see more of Fonseca. You know, it was just weird. I'm watching the coverage and in the first couple of games, they're talking about how he might win the tournament. And then in the third set, they're just bagging on him. You know, it's like, I mean, we just have to have like, okay, you know.
He can lose and he can lose two, four and two to Draper. And I don't really think that much differently of him than I did yesterday. Like that doesn't change my mind about the outlook for the next 12 or 15 years. It's just going to happen. you know, not everyone is Rafa where you come in and worship when your first French open, like I, that's not the comparison in my mind. So let's give this wonderful story some time.
Draper was head and shoulders above him today. Upset City, center Draper. You going to do it, JW? No. But I do agree. I do think, you know, Fonseca, I think, was just totally out. This was a man against a boy. Stop ripping the TNT, man. You got to represent. I'm not ripping. I just disagree with the opinions of, give me a break. Did you see Draper?
He was practicing shirtless, I'll have you know, right outside our – he's ripped. I mean, I bet he's put on 8, 10 pounds of just heft and muscle since last year. And we're working with Henman and Petchy, and they say – This guy is a grinder. This guy works. If I'm Fonseca, I'm saying, shit, if I put in my work, I'm going to be that guy in three years? All right, sign me up. So I think this was a good lesson for Fonseca. But no, Draper's the real deal. I don't think he's beating Sinner.
He really has announced himself this year. And the fact that he's doing this on clay, I mean, let's all, you want to see Sal, by the way, you want to see Salvation Draper when he gets to Wimbledon. I already saw one story. He's going to be worth 100 million pounds if he wins Wimbledon. Talk about hype. If he, you know, just by virtue, honestly, the way he's played here so far. I heard that he put on 100 million pounds of muscle.
There you go. That lightning bolt tattoo he's got, that's going to be surrounded by. Anyway, let's keep going. But no, we love Draper. Yeah. All right. Center through Zverev down below. Do we, I, do we have, we had him bounce. Oh my God. This is where we have to just, this is where we need to, we just need to, we need to simultaneously, we need to hang our heads in shame. I'm looking at you, JW. I don't remember who.
I hope you're looking. We had Surundalo through. Oh, Surundalo. Remember way back when? Oh, boy. This is a disaster. This is a condemned area. They're putting a police tape around this part of our bracket. Honestly, I don't blame anyone if they just turn us off right now because this is just. People in the comments loved you, JW, saying about Surrenda at the end of yesterday's quick serve. Oh, my God. Acknowledging the misstep. Listen.
If we say it first, hopefully you'll take it. We suck. I like Zverev. I still maintain, I mean, this Gabe Diallo is a very nice, you know, big, heavy hitting player. I think he played at Kentucky. To beat Sorundolo on three sets on clay is just a baffling result. It might be like Sorundolo coming in with some hype mechanism, with some expectation. I didn't see it.
But I just feel like a dummy in this section because for the rest of the tournament, I've been getting credit to history and like respect and the whole thing. Didn't do it for Zverev. And I'm a moron. And then are you going to take him? You want a factoid? Sure. He was down a double break in the fifth against Griegspor last year. I remember that. It was tough to watch. Griegspor got a little tight. Yeah. Just...
Yeah, but Zverev looked really good today against a potentially tricky match against Caboli and not... He sort of uncomplicated things. Yeah, if we're allowed to redraw, which... Presumably we are since it's the name of the show. I'm going to go Zverev through here. I am too. Greek Spore has always played Zverev tough. And I think he finally beat him this year at some point. But they've had some tough matches. It's a tough setup.
It's so weird because the narrative around Zverev is he hasn't won a major. He can't win that major. But what's lost in that narrative is that he's so good in majors. He's definitely better in the extended format. against most players on Earth, maybe save for three or four, but against most of Earth, the three out of five set format favors Zverev, right? I mean, Shelton's the same. I think there's a handful of guys who are the same.
Definitely Zverev. I messed up. Down below, Nori, let's assume that Novak is through. If he's not, our apologies. He's already up one. He's upset. Yeah, he's going to win that match, I think. But Zverev and Novak. And also, I just need to, like, I didn't know. We did our draw show. I will defend one part as I lay on the grenade for my bad picks with Sarindolo.
Novak before the second round in Geneva when we do this is different than Novak winning Geneva and coming in with a little bit of confidence. He has the ability to quickly reverse. opinions based on current form. And then it's like, okay, he gets three or four matches in. I think we acknowledge that he's like a diesel engine at this point. Uh, he's driving, he's going, the car is starting. Uh, do you like Novak or Zverev assuming that you like Novak over Nori?
This week on Prof G Markets, we speak with Aswath Demodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business. He shares his take... on the recent tariff turmoil and what he's watching as we head into second quarter earnings. This is going to be a contest between market resilience and economic resilience as to whether, in fact, the markets are overestimating the resilience of the economy.
And that's what the actual numbers are going to deliver is maybe the economy and markets are a lot more resilient than we gave them credit for. In which case, we'll come out of this year just like we came out of 2020 and 2022 with much less damage than we thought would be created. You can find that conversation exclusively on the Prof G Markets feed. Yeah, this is like Australia Redux, right?
Novak also, I would add that these conditions have been great for him. The draw has been good for him. I mean, it's a good lesson for all of us. You make these declarative statements about players and you say, you know what? Anyway. God, I think that's kind of a pick them. I guess, man, I don't know. I think I honestly. Eight and five head to head.
Novak. I may go Novak there. I feel like once he gets to this hinge point of the middle weekend, you feel like the body's going to beat him up and he's going to have an injury. But that hasn't happened. He hasn't had a lot of wear and tear. He won this event three times, and the last guy that beat him is memorialized as a statue. I kind of think Novak's got a real shot here. What do you think? Here's where I'm going. I'm operating out of fear.
And this is how I'm going to select this one. I've wrongly disrespected both of these players. And Novak with 24 grand slams just deserves my disrespect way less. So I'm going to put Novak through on this one just as like an apology to the king. That's it.
That's it. That's scientific. All right. No other reason. I'm not even going to break down the matchup. I was going to say, this isn't about getting out of the corners. No, this is guilt. This is guilt. This is what guilt looks like. This is all about you and your therapist. And now I'm going to ruin it because Sinner's going through to the final. You? All right.
Sinner's going through to the final. All right. So we have Sinner in the final. Obviously, when these matches roll around, we will do deeper dives on quick serve. Thank you for watching those. Assuming that you have been at all. JW, Musetti or Runa? That's a good one. We both have this. I believe the head-to-head is 2-0 to the Dane. I think I saw that. Yeah, do it. Yeah.
I'll do it. Bruno? Mussetti's been great. I mean, Mussetti's just won a lot of matches and just seems like such a composed player these days. The slice really works well on all surfaces. I don't know, though. I think... I'm going to change that one up. I'm going to go Holger. Okay. I'm going to stick with Musetti.
And then the next section, we kind of, during the draw show, so there's a lot of room for stuff to go wrong here. I think it was the softest pocket, not based on the talent of the players, just based on the form. coming into the tournament, right? There wasn't a standout player where you're going, this guy has been hot. Taylor has not been playing well. Mickelson has not been winning a ton of matches. Korda had not been winning a ton of matches. Francis had been over since Monte Carlo.
And hadn't had like a big result on the clay or at least any sort of consistency on it. So no surprise that we messed this whole thing up.
But I'm going to take Francis through. Altmaier, we did say that that was going to be a tough one against Fritz. I had Fritz through the quarters just because it was like the least of... evils and risk um going through uh but i i have francis through uh against altmeyer jw you know they have a new york new york hotel in vegas i feel like this is like new york new york and paris like francis is
playing U.S. Open style tennis. He's pumped up. He's energetic. He's focused. I mean, this has really been the highest expression of Francis. I don't think he's lost a set yet. He's really looked good. He seems to be in a good place. His brother's here coaching Haley Baptiste. Ben Rothenberg wrote a great piece about that relationship. I think Francis is looking really strong, and I think this is too big an opportunity for him. I think he gets by.
the one-handed backhand of Daniel Altmaier. So Runa and Tiafoe, who do you have through to the semis? You going Francis to the semis? I think I'm going Francis to the semis. Is that crazy? Nothing's crazy. He's done. Listen, he's been in the semis of Grand Slams before, a couple of them. Three of them, I think. I've been very impressed with Francis. He's played amazingly well. And we mentioned this quickly on the original Draw Show. Stayed in...
Europe while his team went back to play another event in Hamburg because he didn't like what he was doing, felt like he needed more matches. Team goes home, regroups for the French Open. He goes to Hamburg alone or with one member or whatever it was. But props, man, he's been committed. Like this is the payoff for leaving Houston and playing in Monte Carlo 36 hours later. You remember that move when he loses the final to Brooksby in Houston and is playing in Monte Carlo less than 36 hours later?
because he wanted to make an impact so sometimes it's a late payoff that was six weeks ago and now he's kind of uh it's bearing fruit uh you have runa i have musa i have musetti through to the the semis and no i'm gonna go francis I heard you. I'm telling you that I have Musetti. I have Musetti over Runa and I have Musetti over Francis. And I had Musetti in the original draw show as well. Okay. So down at the bottom.
Obviously, in the section of Casper Rude, Popron and Borges would be in the third round. Another thing we can't predict is injuries. I went on one the other day about Casper and how gracious he was with his injury and finishing that match. which he had no business finishing like if i was his coach i would have been yelling at him to stop like there was only damage to be done but casper if you find someone classier uh you know it's certainly a short list of options uh but alexi popper and
Playing great. And then we get down and he's playing Tommy Paul. Tommy Paul's a badass. He's so tough. The ab is wrong. The body's not right. Five setters. I've said this before on the show. Fitness is a choice, okay? Diet is a choice. Those are things that are controllable. It's just a bunch of miniature decisions that you have to make. It's not someone's forehand that you have to deal with. It's not...
trying to create topspin on the back end when you can't hit topspin on the back end, right? It's not learning something new. It's just a series of choices. Early in his career, he got all of those decisions wrong. Now he gets all of those decisions right. Props. Tommy Paul is an absolute animal. I mean, Popper has to be licking his chops. Two five-setters, a little bit beat up, but I'm just not going to pick against...
against TP. I just can't do it. He's just such a good tennis player. He's so smart with the way he plays. He doesn't take points off. He's everything that he wasn't nine years ago. And I have so much respect for that. I really, really do. J.W., Popper, or Paul? Paul, I did that match, that match with Jim and Brian Anderson, and Paul...
Wins this match. It's five sets. He had the MRI the day before. He's got this grade one tear of strain of his abdomen. That's not good for tennis, for a sport that depends on core. He wins that match in five sets. His average first...
surf speed did not drop. So he just grinded through it. And then after the match, he was not doing backflips. His main reaction seemed to be, listen, 10 years ago, I won the boys title here. I like this surface. I've kind of unperformed here, underperformed earlier in my career.
This is where I want to be. This was not like the match of my life and I'm doing a party lap around the stadium. This was like, okay, that's good. Next, next. I think he gets through this. I mean, the body is a cause for concern, but. He's really good on the surface. You watch him play in person. He is so athletic. And even when he doesn't anticipate.
He's still getting to balls and turning defense into offense. I really am a fan of his game. Yeah, you're right. This has come a long way from what the rap on him was earlier in his career. It should be instructive for other younger players. I like Tommy Paul.
Yeah. And what you said, he shouldn't be surprised by any result now. It's not as if, you know, to your point, that reaction is what it should be based on not potential anymore. It's based on accomplishment, right? That's what he should be doing. Doing the old Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, just hand the ball over after a touchdown, right? Yeah, he's just like flexing. Ben Shelton's done a great job. He's kind of just handled his business. Obviously got the walkover from Gaston.
but then beat the Tsitsipas Slayer. Gigante. Great name. I'm choosing Carlos. But I think, you know, Ben has some things that can bother Carlos. Like, right? Like, it doesn't matter how good you are. 145 is 145. You know, when it's coming at you and from a lefty, there's only so much you can do. He's obviously going to hope for...
a ton of second serve looks, right? And he will not be up in the court. Carlos will be back by the back sign, trying to find that back end and then start the point from there. Ben's going to have to pitch a great ball game. I'm going to take Carlos, but we...
we had Ben in the round of 16. And I think he's, you know, there's, there's no reason not to have him deep in these slams. He he's great in the three out of five set format. Yeah. I, I don't know. I mean, I thought you were going to go a bit. Further than that, even. Because Penn is well-rested. It's really hot. At least it was today. And Carlos was...
I mean, that last 90 minutes was some of the strangest tennis I've seen in a long time. Demir Jumer played 90 minutes of Lights Out Tennis, and it was really fun and entertaining, but Carlos really went on a walkabout. I was sitting next to Mats Wielander, and we were both looking at each other like... This is the defending champion. What is he doing out there? I think Carlos wins that match, but sometimes he goes for the showstopper shot when there's such a more obvious...
option that he passes up. Sometimes he just sort of has these walkabout, I think is the Aussie term. I think this is a little bit of a danger match for Carlos, especially if Ben's fired up. He's got those Hellfire missile. Prove it. Prove it. I don't know. Prove it. All right. All right. I wouldn't pick Ben Shelton, but I wouldn't gloss over this one.
All right, we'll see. Please talk more about it and then not pick it. I don't even think JW had Shelton to this match. Did he not? I don't think he did. Did I not? Who did he have? I mean, Shelton. Was Jari in this section? Chee-lay. Chee-chee-chee. Lay-lay-lay. Is Tabilo? JW had him losing to Sonico in the first round. Tell us more about your faith in Ben.
Wait, did we kill his audio? Go ahead. Come on. So you like the city, huh? How long has Techie Sean had a mic? Look at that. Unbelievable. From the top rope. Great. Um, that kind of felt this whole, that whole, that whole thing. You like that? Yeah. A little, uh, we waited until he was done with all that to be like, Hey, by the way, John didn't meet Freud up. All right. What do we got?
Tommy Paul and Carlos. I mean, if TP gets through this popper match, I feel like it's, this may be a dated reference. Michael, understand it. Please. mortal combat and you'd get to the end and you finally had the person wobbling and they're wobbling and they just go finish him oh yeah and you just rip their face off i feel like that's what we're gonna see i like carlos against tommy paul I like Carlos against Musetti. JW's way down on Carlos from that Zoomer match.
You want a more dated video game reference? Remember Mike Tyson punch out when they said body blow, body blow? I think Carlos delivers too many body blows. I do think Carlos needs to tighten things up because that was just a Friday night session. You're playing a guy who's a decade plus older than you are, who's not in your league, and you give him a set and an early break and a fourth set, and you have all that.
All right, let's move on. I like Carlos. So we got Senator Carlos in the final. We have Senator and Carlos. I'm setting myself up. I will say that Tyson punch out really hit me hard. So bull, the bull dude, you remember him? Yeah. He would charge you. And I remember it's like.
It made me think of Carlos because you have to think of certain ways to beat him. Bull, you had to punch him in the stomach when he was charging you. And then you got to Soda Popinski. Then you had to go left, right, left, right, left, right. And then that was it. There was like cheat codes. And then you got to Tyson and just got your ass kicked.
There was like, oh, great. I spent all day doing this and doing the left, right on Soto Popinski. Just get my ass handed to me by Tyson. Okay. Carlos in the final, what did we take? We, we, we both took Carlos, right? In the final? It's on the paper. I don't know, dude. Yeah. We both had Carlos winning the tournament. I have a feeling JW is going to flip it. See.
This is either a profile in courage or a profile in cowardice. Here it is. Do it. Switch it. He's flipping it. Flipping. Let's go. Yannick Sinner. 2025 Roland Garros champion defeating Carlos Alcaraz. I think we have just enough differences for, we're going to have a showdown here, I think, between the two of you. I'm sticking. There's no chance in hell that I'm changing.
My pick from a guy that's won Monte Carlo, Rome, French Open last year, coming into the French Open because he had a bad 60 minutes, no pun intended, against Schumer. Also, by the way, you mentioned Mats Vlander, like with this whole Fonseca thing, we mentioned a lot of players. Mats won this thing at 17 years old. Can we make that reference more often when we're talking about young people doing cool stuff?
Absolute stud. All right. So you flipped. You flipped it. He has center, center, chicken dinner. I'm going to stick with Carlos. I'm going to stick with Saba. Just this guy's confidence can just be shaken so easily with his picks. You know, Mike? Well, John, I appreciate all the detail. And then you don't go the way we all are hoping you're going to go. Oh my gosh. Give us a sonnet about these things. This guy is so nimble.
This guy is so nimble and open-minded. He's processing the data. He's processing what he's observing. He's making informed decisions. He's taking advantage of the second serve. And based on all this information, he has the courage to admit.
He might've been wrong a week ago. This guy changed a better, a better framing. This guy changed. This guy changes his mind like a fart in the wind, right? Like this is just, and with that, we thank you for watching the redraw show here on serve presented by Amazon prime. I'm sure that they are thrilled about the fart in the wind reference. We'll see us. We'll see you tomorrow. Quick serve. Thanks for watching.
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