2025 AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Full Draw Breakdown

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to the Australian Open Draw Show right here on Served, presented by Blue Owl Capital. This is fun. This is fun. Why be wrong? Why be wrong once or twice when you can be wrong a thousand times? That's the way we do our draw shows here on serve. For those of you that have listened before, you know, the drill for those of you that are new to our show, maybe listening to a draw.

special prediction, reveal, whatever you want to call it for the first time. We do it a little bit differently. I have not seen the draws. They are right in front of me. Techie Sean, put them down here. This is what you're seeing. Haven't seen it yet. So my first reaction is here for you. JW and I, we don't just, most prediction shows.

pick the winner, right? I could sit here and very easily go, yeah, center in Sabalenka. That sounds pretty good. I'll probably get half of that. Right. Right. No, no, no. We like to be way more wrong. We go into the weeds. We pick it all the way through. Uh, we'll pick someone to go to the third round matchups. We'll get into the weeds a little bit. So put on your nerd hats and let's get to it. Producer Mike one. How are you today?

I'm doing great. Thank you. Great. John Wertheim in the house. Techie Sean here as well. They've all probably seen the draw. I have not seen it yet. Are we doing men's or women's first, producer Mike? I think we should go women's first. Before we get fully into this draw show, I do want to acknowledge that all of us have a lot of friends who...

This draw show is fun. It'll be funny. We'll make fun of each other for past picks. It's light. It's bright. It's fun. Start of the 10-ish year. We do have to acknowledge that we all have friends.

uh who are living in devastation right now whether you lost your houses pacific palisades is pretty much gone tennis channel studios on the edge our friends there i'm sure a lot of the employees at tennis channel have have been affected by this I've been in touch with friends that I know from the tennis world.

that live in Los Angeles that were either on the edge. I know friends that have been evacuated. You have friends, you know, three or four friends that their houses burned down. Where you got married, producer Mike, I think no longer exists. Sounds like it's gone. It is tragic. It's hard to wrap your head around the images that you see and make it real. Our hearts go out.

to the people that are dealing with being displaced, with having their houses burned down, their favorite coffee shop burned down. Your favorite person that you converse with at these places in your everyday life. gone will you see that who knows and it is it is absolutely devastating so uh our our thoughts our love uh are with the people who um maybe aren't having uh you know a light bright day

That being said, Aussie Open is still going on. We are going to have to talk about it. But all the love in the world to our friends and people we don't know that, you know, empathy should rule. And it's certainly devastating what has happened with Pacific College. Yeah, we'll put a couple of donation links in the show descriptions and feel free to.

take a look at them and help out how you got them. Yeah, please do. We'll, we'll, we'll research that and vet that thoroughly. And hopefully you can give a little bit. And we thank you for listening and giving us the time to talk about it. What are we going to start with? Men's or women's draw? Let's go with the women's. Okay. Yeah. Here we go. I know the name up top. I know without seeing the draw.

my instinct is like sabalenka city but let's see what let's see what happens here i mean it's good luck seeing the draw i mean this print is i mean this is i i gotta be i gotta be honest so is this an is it Sean, is this an Aussie open thing? Why? Why is this like, I'm thinking like full Zoolander. It's like, what is this? A draw for ants?

Sean's only like 25. His eyes are still good. What is, I was going to say this, this is so heartening to hear is the one person here whose age starts with a five. I don't want to like get my iPhone flashlight out. So it's not, it's not just me that's squinting here. I mean, you know how bad it is too when I'm like too dependent. on technology where i'm like this is uh i mean yeah god bless craig craig craig tiley does so much right

You know, we have $6,000 travel vouchers and we have cold plunges and sleep pods. Can we work on the presentation of the draw? Listen, first one, this is... Insane so if you see me like looking like this, it's not because I lost my eyesight I can read them off the computer too if you need oh my gosh, okay well

Listen, the font is the tiniest I've ever seen. And apparently it's a printing off of so like notes is maybe just make it printable. But you know, it's not small as the first matchup I see.

uh anytime you get two people who have won grand slams first round of a slam it's uh noteworthy so starting off with a bit of a bang here it would have taken prime graph coming back for me to pick against Sabalenka in the first round so no disrespect to our our good friend Sloan Stevens but Sabalenka City I'm looking at uh Buzo's Monero second round

Tatiana Maria. I promise you none of these people are super pumped that they are in the same third or same first to third round section as Sabalenka. Clara Tawson just won an event. Normally, that would give me, you know, some sort of motivation to pick upset special. I like Sabalenka going through to at least the fourth round. uh maggie fresh down there on a blink of a daria seville ujiyama magdalenette buskova andreva okay so

I'm Busca was a tricky one first round for Andreva, by the way, especially if the courts are playing pretty quick. She hits a hard flat through the court, knows how to play matches, moves pretty well. Are we at the point? JW, where we can kind of not get too involved with the matchups with Andreva? Are we confident enough to just throw her in the fourth round against Sabalenka? I think so. And I think from everything I've heard, the courts.

are playing fast. Remember, uh, Tapalenka-Andreva was a French Open quarterfinal last year. Um, I'm just looking at this here. Yeah, I, I, we can... Go as deep or as shallow as you like, but I don't see a whole lot of upsets here. Bad luck for Sloan, who could use some wins, and former major champion.

But, yeah, I don't see any real upsets here. Noskova-Towson's a nice first-round match. A seed against a player, as you say, young slugger who just won an event. Towson did. But, no, I think you're right. I'm... Going chalk. And Nauskova beat Svantec last year here, right? I mean, she can play. She has a couple wins over Svantec, if I'm not mistaken. But I just, Sabalenka.

finishes last year like she did wins two slams and then starts the year with a win in brisbane it's just tough to choose uh against her all right what do we got the next section diana schneider who we talked about lefty oh and you mentioned the courts being fast In watching Hong Kong and a bunch of the other ones, they all seemed really fast on TV as I was watching. Shots were getting through the court.

That's normally an indication of what's going to happen a little bit at Australia. You rarely go from like Hong Kong is lightning and you get to Australia and it's a gritty sandbox like Indian Wells. You would expect it to be a little bit quicker. I think they've made it a little bit quicker. They had gotten a little slow for a while.

Dana Schneider, first round coach Eretto. I like Schneider going through there. Ashlyn Kruger just beat Paola Bedosa last week against Isla Tamjanovic. That's going to be, you know, the Aussie. I guess you go with form, but that's kind of a pick-a-match. I think I like... Schneider could get upset by one of those two. It's coming in first year with expectations.

Go ahead. Keep in mind, Kruger had a young American, nice player, but she retired against Pagula when they just played. So I wonder if she doesn't come in a little. beaten up yeah and to your point my only caveat to your point it's it's interesting these pullouts are they preemptive and are they you know protecting your spot or uh i mean i guess based on that i'll go with

Ayla, but I think I like Schneider through to the third round, but that's not straightforward at all. Donna Vekic with new coach Sasebeyan. Vondrozova, I think she just... retired as well, won the first set and retired. She's beat up too. That causes a little more stress when someone's actually winning a match and pulls out. That means it's, I think it's pretty serious, especially someone who's trying to climb back up the rankings. I like Donna Vekic and Schneider.

In the third round, I am taking Vekic to the fourth round, JW. I had Schneider beating Vekic, but otherwise, I think we're in agreement, unfortunately. None taken. Pavlyuchenkova. cruising through you want yawn you always pronounce better than i do so just correct me uh when wrong uh queen win is down at the bottom i don't see anyone taking queen win out i have veckage and uh and

Queen Wen. Save your comments. It's a nickname. Queen Wen Vekic in the round of 16. You have Queen Wen and Schneider in the round of 16. Is that correct? Or did you pull upset special? No. Nothing fancy so far. Coco and Sophia Kennan. Sophia Kennan upset Coco first round. Where did she beat her in a slam? Wimbledon. Wimbledon. Last year. So that's an interesting.

I think this is a little bit different. Kennan, obviously, his ball flight on the grass goes away. Coco, you know, a full 180 with confidence since that match. Very interesting. Sophia Kennan has won in Australia before. I'm not choosing against Coco in her recent form, obviously winning year-end finals. And then...

running the table at United Cup, beating Sviatek there as easily as she has before, four and four. First time she's ever kind of, four and four is a pretty comfortable win on the tours. I'm not going against Coco. It would take something crazy. I'm looking at the draw. Can I just sidebar real quick? Isn't it funny? You've got two Americans. They've each won a major.

They're not far apart in age. Actually, Kennen has a major win over Coco. And to me, this is like a 95-5 match. And I think this says a lot about... cocoa that on paper, you know, you'd be a casual fan, you'd look at this and say, Oh, man, this is tasty. And yet, these are

As I see it, two players at totally different levels right now. Yeah, and Kenny, it's not just that win over Coco because obviously she won and then she kind of had to come back. She beat Sabalenka in Rome last year. This is not someone that top players want to see.

first round I think what we're doing is is it's no disrespect to Sophia Kennan who I'm a big fan of she a lot of variety switches directions uh great I think it's it's you know it's a big deal the way that she's been able to find her way back to the tour. But I think it just speaks more to the the form that Coco has had for the last three months, or even going back to just post US Open. So it speaks to more just Coco's form.

winning year in finals and carrying it right into the next year just serving better you know it's it's weird she said she had an average serving day at united cup and it looks a lot different than her average serving days uh from March of last year to early September of, of last year. So I like Coco moving on. It would have, again, it would have taken, that's about as uncomfortable a first round draw as you can get with Sophia Kennan and.

I still like Coco. I don't know that I would choose against her here. Ooh, ooh. So Leila Fernandez, third round. I like Coco through to the fourth round. And then... Karolina Mukhova. Ooh. Against Kota Roska, I like that. Osaka against Caroline Garcia. Not going to be a lot of rallies in that one. They're looking to just throw uppercuts right away.

Osaka coming on. We don't know what the status is with her abdominal strain. Bencic, Ostapenko, welcome back. Belinda Bencic has been away. What is that? What does that sound you hear? Is that feedback from your mic? Or is that the upset bell? Oh. Your upset meter? Oh, are you, would you like to take a walk first? I'll take it. What are you taking?

Bencic, man. Bencic over Ostapenko. Book it. It's a decent one because Ostapenko is just all over the place. I like what you're doing. I feel like it might be a little... You might be with your heart a little bit there, JW. One thing you will notice is that JW often makes his picks based on the stories he wants to write a week from now.

Dude, you're giving up the game. A little return from maternity leave. I will not follow you there. I think Ostapenko, I do like Mukhova to beat Ostapenko. I think it's Coco and Mukhova. in the round of 16. Who you got in the round of 16 there, JW? Yeah, I mean, I might talk about storylines and sentiment trumping. I mean, Naomi Osaka, two-time winner. She's...

You know, we all know this return from maternity leave hasn't gone quite as swimmingly as she's hoped. She comes to Australia. She looks great. And then all of a sudden she's got an injury. And now this draw playing, you know, another former top five player, Caroline Garcia, for the right to play. Muhova is, um, is not what the draw gods ordered for Naomi. So yeah, I have, uh, I have, yeah, same as, oh man, we got to, I got Coco beating Muhova, but, um.

I'm just going to start gratuitously picking up sets so you and I aren't always in agreement. I'm going to stay disciplined, and I know you're going to take some swings. I'm just going to wear you out. This is... We're going full Leighton Hewitt. You're going to get impatient at some point. You're going to start throwing Hail Marys, and you're going to give me three, four, and four.

That's what we're going to do. Only I competed as well as Leighton Hewitt. No one does. I'll tell you that much right now. Okay, so Coco Mujoba. In the next section, it looks like Paola Bedosa. Gibson. Niemeyer, Kostiuk. I don't have any reason not to have Bedosa and Kostiuk in the third round. I think I will take...

But Dosa there, even though she's coming off of a loss last week, she has proven to be reliable over the last six months, especially went into Wimbledon rank. What was it? A hundred and... you know seven i don't know what it was it was crazy it was not top 100 we'll put it that way so that the commenters don't correct me uh next section samsonova

Jess Pagula, is there any reason for you not to put Jess Pagula against Bedosa? Obviously, Elise Merton's second round has been a top 15 player pretty regularly, has played a lot of doubles events, won a lot of doubles events, has played the top players on big stages. Upset special. Does it start here? I like Bedosa and Pagula. Do something crazy, John. Here's your chance. I would say Samsonova is...

Had a nice little start to the year. Now, I'm a big, I'm a Jess Pagula backer, especially in big events. Maya joined her first round opponent. I think it's the second highest ranked teenager after. Um, after Mira Andreva. So, so keep an eye on that could be a little tricky, but no, I, I like Pagula. Um, she's, she's gotten pretty reliable in these, these big events. Um, I've got Pagula through. All right. I'm going to turn the page on my tiny printed sheet.

Literally, like, think of it, like, viewers, it's this big. How ridiculous is this? Come on, Tyler. Oh, my gosh. It's like the tiniest print ever. All right, and here we go. We spent some time with Rabakina last week. Who knows what's going on there? Ivan Izovich, Vukov.

He's out. He's back in. He's suspended. He's not. We don't really know the full story. I don't know that we will know the full story. What I do know is that Robacan is back, played year-end finals, played pretty well. United Cup won some matches. No shame in losing to Iga Sviantek there. Winston Jones, wild card, not what you want to see when you're a wild card, is a sixth seed. Yastrzemska, do you have any reason not to take Robachna to the third round, JW? I do.

which is I just feel like there is way too much chaos here. Here it is. There will be some interesting press conferences. I mean, I don't know if you saw, Goran spoke briefly to Ben Rothenberg, and it confirmed what we had been hearing. This was not a planned personnel change. There's just way too much going on here. Bear in mind, too, this is a player who multiple times recently has withdrawn early in majors, even after winning her first round.

I just think there's way too much chaos here. Um, I, I don't think we're back and it makes them in a weekend and, uh, we too far down Lulu son. You want to hear an interesting one from New Zealand? Um, she's the top. Ranked player from the Antipodes. She's higher ranked than any Australian player. Very nearly seated. Nice player. Played at the University of Texas. Had a good Wimbledon. I like Lulu's son to get out of this little pocket. How do you like that? I knew you would break.

He's only disciplined for so long. For those who didn't, let's not assume that everyone listens every single week, even though we hope they would. Can you explain the Evie Nizovich of things? Just quickly, we don't have to go into... balls and strikes on the relationship just what you were referring to as far as goron maybe not knowing that vukov is back in it just is is that what you were alluding to jw

Yeah, Rabakina made an off-season coaching change in the fall. She announced Goran Ivanovic would be joining the team as her coach. Everyone sort of made the assumption she was making a break from her embattled previous coach. And then... We had first week of the year, we had a very strange set of circumstances where Rabakan announces actually the former coach is in the mix again, not replacing Goran, but is back to being part of the team. The WTA responded to that by essentially saying, wait.

he's serving a provisional suspension. He won't be allowed on the grounds. Goran Ivanisevich clearly did not anticipate this. And, you know, he chose his words cautiously, but... We had heard this, and he seemed to confirm this, that he was a bit blindsided by this personnel move. There's a lot going on here, and the player will be asked about it. It's not a pleasant situation.

That does not militate in favor of playing strong tennis, even for a player who's been to the final of this event two years ago. I don't think.

Rabakina is a player you want to back these days. It's actually a wild thing. I can't imagine if I would take a job with someone coming off of a long-term... player coach relationship that she had had previously work for three or four months together show up in australia and then all of a sudden she releases a statement on social saying this person's coming back in and not knowing about it

that that i don't know that is there precedent for that i don't know that i've that that's a crazy i'm trying to imagine myself in goran's shoes assuming what he's kind of alluding to and what the assumption is behind the scenes and sources have confirmed it, that he did not know that this was going to be released. That's a crazy thing to happen, right?

Yeah, compounded by the fact that this was not a tidy breakup. Remember, you know, there were rumors that there had been a suspension. I mean, when all those stories about Goran becoming the coach were sort of this great exhale by the tennis community. Thank goodness she's going in a new... direction, there's a new voice, there's this infusion of joy now. It's quite a dynamic, as we say. I mean, it's not ideal for good tennis, and we'll...

Probably get a little bit more clarity when Rabakina goes to her next press conference. But bottom line is it's not a good situation on any level. It's a strange situation. I'll tell you that. Next section, very interesting. Matty Keys. Irina Begu, Menon, Daniel Collins down there at the 11th seed. I like keys to the third round. And this is where I actually do it. I think keys makes the fourth round. I think that's where we're back in.

goes down. I'm not ready to take the upset special before the third round, but I got keys in the fourth round. JW, who do you got coming out of that section to the fourth round? Oh, just you wait. I've got keys, and I've got her a lot farther than the fourth round. She's looked terrific. She's married. That's what we call foreshadowing. If she stays healthy. Wait, what were you saying? Foreshadowing.

Yeah, exactly. Short answer, I like Maddie Keyes. We all like Danielle Collins, but she's had a rough go of it. I think she's lost her last six matches or so. I don't think she'll lose to a qualifier in round one, but this is not. Peek Daniel Collins. Maybe she turns it around. I'm just looking down here Yeah, I have Matty keys like with bold face underlines and I know Alex here. Okay, so we'll say in that section you have Lulu playing keys

Key's going through the fourth, but we're not going further. We're going to go fourth round, and then we're going to dive in on the actual hypothetical matchups because... What is sports coverage without talking about things that aren't real yet? Yes. Let's just dive right in. Daniel Collins, we should say, has made a final and a semi at this event before. Loves playing it. She is streaky. When she is on, she is...

borderline untouchable. I don't know that there's a better ball striker when she's trying to find it. It's a little bit different, and she has been trying to find it for the better half of last year. We love the Danimal. Mike loves the Danimal. I hope she finds it together because it's just great. It's fun. She emotes. She's fun to watch. She might get pissed at someone. Let her rip tater chip. I got keys going to the fourth round. Next section, Hadad Maya.

And the other seed in that section is Katie Bolter. JW, I'm going to let you lead this one. Katie Bolter, newly engaged to an Aussie, no less. Hadat Mai is a really nice player who just doesn't. I think we talked about her. You know, she's.

She's probably six feet tall, a lefty, and just doesn't tend to get it together in the majors. I think I'm going to pick her going through because I don't see a whole lot of danger. Svitolina back from the surgery. She's in the mix. Talk about rooting for storylines. So that's under the... Yeah, I've got Hadad Maya here. I'm jumping the gun here. I've got Hadad Maya. All right, I have Bolter beating Hadad Maya to get to the third round. Ooh, and pow! Pow!

Does Paolini continue? Was 2024 the year of Paolini, or is this ride going to continue for another year, JW? You have Paolini in the third round, or you have Svitolina? I'm a believer. I'm not sure she's... Winning majors at 5'4", but we love the story. We love the variety. Good athlete. Good speed. Pow, pow, pow. I like her. So you have keys and Paolini in the fourth round. I like all my draw. I use nicknames half the time with the people. I just put pow. Pow.

It's more pew, pew, pew for her than pow. I think it's pow. You didn't watch it last year, though, because it used to be pew, pew, pew, and now it's pow. She turned it in 2024. Full sound effect. Emma Navarro. Can you nominate this segment for an award, Mike? The last 90 seconds or so has really been some of our best awards. Can you just flip that? Like a Razzie or something? No, dude. It was brilliant. Obviously.

Obviously, you've never worked on anything good and don't know what it is, Mike. That was brilliant. Emma Navarro, Peyton Stearns, tough to bet against Emma against most players at this point. Ooh, Angebor, Sakari, a lot of stars of the game that maybe haven't been playing great recently. And I think that's a bit of an understatement. They would probably tell you the same thing. Kazitkina.

Go back to... Wait, this is a really interesting pocket. So first, you've got two former NCAA champions in recent years, right? This should be... They should hold this match in, like, College Station with people with... Their face is painted. Emma Navarro coming off a major semi as an eighth seed. And Anstra Burrs look pretty good, I think, so far this year.

nice uh nice to see her moving well again and soccer he's having a really rough go of it i think she had to qualify in adelaide she's she's seen 31 so i don't know if that's true but she's she's been losing losing and the score lines i was looking back at united cup it was

One and two, two and three, the scorelines were rough. Not a lot of cause for optimism. I hope she turns it around. You'd be hard pressed to find a harder worker in all of tennis. I hope she turns it around, but I don't know that I would bet on it. this tournament. I have Emma and Kazitkina in the third round with a tip of the cap to Putin Seva, who is always fun to watch for various reasons. I have Emma Navarro going through to round four.

Am I wrong with that? JW, who do you got? I don't think so. M Navarro had not a great start to the year. I think she, she's won a match and lost two as we speak, but no, I think. I'm thinking Emi Navarro as well. I'm a believer there. Kasichina, we talk about a lot, a player you root for, but just it's really hard to go deep in majors when, you know, you're...

when you're struggling to get to triple digits on serves. So I think, yeah, I'm with you. So funny story. I get a text about 1.30 p.m. on Christmas Day from my good friend. Tim Culloch here in Charlotte, who I hit with all the time, part of the Charlotte Dingles crew, which is a weird thing to call yourself. But text me goes, hey, Emma Navarro, Mr. Flight from she got.

stranded in charlotte north carolina last night she's coming to hit he has a court she's coming to hit you know can you come hit i go tim my answer is yes all the time like i i just like hitting now and i would obviously love to do that I go, I'm sitting down for Christmas lunch slash dinner in 27 minutes. There aren't a lot of things that my wife gets super pissed about. I go that, no, the answer is a no. It's obviously a no for that one. As Randy Jackson used to say.

That's a no for me, dog. But anyways, I would have loved to do that normally. She could have called me. It would have gone great. Yeah, that would have been really helpful for her preparation for Australia. Respect your wife. I think she's absolutely correct. That said, can we talk about a sport that is asking its top 10 players, right? This isn't some like journeyman looking groveling for points. I mean, this is a top 10 player.

He's traveling on Christmas Day. That is what this sport is asking of its top athletes. And it has been for a long time. Sidebar on that. Yeah. Okay, let's get to the next section. Kalinskaya, Azarenka, Martich. Christiane, Katie McNally. I am going Kalensky a little streakier. I think Azarenka took some time off. I talked to her when we were...

Down in the Bahamas and basically is like, I need to take this time. I haven't played much. I haven't hit much. Seemingly refreshed, motivated. I just think she's the more bankable player at this point. I'm going to take Azarenka to round three. JW, do you like Kalinskaya going through or Azarenka or do I just have it all wrong? It's so funny. First of all, tip of the cap to Katie McNally, who is back and shares a hometown with Mike Hayden.

Pride of Cincinnati. I'm sure she knows that. No, it's funny. I had the exact same thing. We saw Vika in the Bahamas and she looks... Rested and ready to go. A former champion twice at this event. Granted, that was more than a decade ago, but I go as I rank it through as well. It's funny how your conversations change with people over time.

whereas we got to tennis a little bit. We were talking about it, but then it instantly went to our kids' reviews of the water slides at Baja Mar, and there were some differing opinions. They were very passionate about their choices. Leo, uh, liked a different one than, uh, than our son, Hank, but it was fun to catch up with Vika. Uh, he gets Fiat tech down at the bottom. Good wins. Beat Rebecca, United cup, lost to Coco.

Obviously, the offseason was weird for her with the positive for melatonin and then the, I guess, bluff of a suspension that she had already kind of served, contaminated substances. They had proven that the entire... Supply was contaminated, but Igish Vyantek, not someone that is thirsty for all the attention off the court all the time, highly motivated, highly disciplined, wants all the successes and deserves all the successes on the court by virtue of her talent and process.

But not the first person, not like a Yannick Sinner where it's like head down, just ignore everything. I think maybe she, and she talked about it. I was just scared that people thought I was lying, even though I was sure that I wasn't. Any reason to not take Shriantek to the fourth round here, JW? No, I mean, I think...

take off like 5% for every adverse scenario, right? So she's got the upper thigh wrap. She's got the scar tissue from the doping controversy. She's got a loss to Coco. She's not tended to play particularly well in Australia. She's still at 80%, and I'm thinking 80% Iga still beats anyone in this pocket. Anna Samova, who has been a, you know, she's played deep. I think Anna Samova beat, Anna Samova's beat Sabalenka here. I think she's made a.

A semifinal here? Is that right? She beat Naomi too. I think, but no, I think even if Iga is not peak Iga, I still think she gets through to the middle weekend. And this is, I mean, Radha Kanu. playing alexandrova first round uh who do you like there emma's short on practice again pulled out the morning of a match or the day before a match again in auckland which seems to be you know either

super unlucky or they're, you know, prep for Australia, but it seems to happen more and more without a lot of warning, right. Without, you know, this has been bothering me. I don't know. It seems like it's a snap decision. Listen, we don't know. We're not in the camps, but any reason for optimism with Emirata Kanu with this draw? I don't think so. I mean, Alexandrov is a very nice player. She gave Navarro a nice match the other day in Adelaide. I think...

Emma Raducanu, especially if she's not 100% physically, is going to have a tough time getting out of that first round. All right, and now we go back and we'll break down, just for a quick recap, Sabalenka and Queen Wen. are through to our, what is that, quarterfinal? I went one further. So quarterfinals, Sabalenka Queen win. I don't think there's a difference of opinion there. I think Coco Pagula, I don't know that there was any difference.

there are am i right on that so far jw those are your four also and then you got kind of nutty on the back we got a little kooky after that okay so uh let's walk this through paulini and keys Do you have Paulinian keys in the fourth round? You do, correct? Or no, did you take Bolter? No, I had, yeah, I have keys. I've got keys to the...

Whatever. Who is she beating in the quarters? No, I have Keys beating Paolini. Okay. And then Emma Navarro and Ego. So we're the same on everything. Now it might change a little bit. Sabalenka, Queen Wen. It's a repeat of last year's final. I think Sabalink is tough to bet against overall. Matchup, this is the toughest one for Queen Wen. It's the toughest one that she's had in her career.

Queen Wendt, amazing, can create a lot of pop. Obviously, a great player, gold medalist, has won a lot of tournaments, has beaten everybody, struggles with the pace on the forehand side with Sabalenka, right? Struggles to catch up with it. You see a lot more foul balls. in this matchup from Queen Wen, just with preparation, not being able to handle the pace of Sabalenka. Not a problem that is specific to her, but obviously the toughest matchup. I think she'd rather play anyone in the draw.

Then Sabalenka, Coco, and Pagula gets interesting. JW, we're going, I have Sabalenka in case that wasn't perfectly clear with my description of the matchup. I'll start here. I have Coco in the semis beating Pagula this time. Yeah, I think the Coco Sabalenka semifinal masquerading as a final is kind of my read on this whole tournament. I thought if Coco had ended up in Iga's half and had beaten Iga, that would have made for an interesting...

Final, but I think in, I think Coco beats Pagula. I think Coco gets the semis, but I just, I don't like her against Sabalenka's power. So we haven't disagreed yet. This is, I'm sure this is thrilling listening for. For all of you. Matty Keys and Paolini. I like Keys also. I like Keys to the semis, but I like I like Ega beating Emma Navarro on the bottom.

JW, are we agreeing the entire way? I have keys. No. I think Iga's... Who did I have Iga losing to in the fourth round? No, I think if Iga gets to the quarters, I don't think she's... I think she's lucky to get to the quarters. I think there's just too much discomfort there for a player who likes comfort. Whether it's Navarro or someone else, I don't think Iga's making the semis. And I think Madison Keys...

is getting all the way to the final. Wait, who'd you have Iga losing to? Azarenka or Navarro? I didn't know. I mean, last year she lost to Noskova. She's lost. I mean, I just think. I mean, last year. I mean, how far back do we want to go? She's finished two in the running. Let's say she's losing. Well.

Let's say she's losing to Navarro. Okay. I think she's going to beat Navarro. I think Iga is going to be in the final. I like Sabalenka over Sviatek in the finals of the Australian Open. Does Keys win your tournament? JW, how far are you going? I was really tempted to go there. I don't think you can quite do that with Savalenka and Coco in this kind of form, but I've always thought that Matty Keys...

Ball striking is so powerful and so pure. And, you know, she's married. Things seem to be going well for her off the court. I think she's a really dangerous player. You're giving a lot of credit to I do here, aren't you? The what? Are you giving a lot of credit to I do here? Yeah, exactly. I'm giving a lot of credit. You know what I'm giving a lot of credit to is like good mindset.

And I mean, Maddie's had so many mid-tournament injuries, too. So that's obviously a factor. But this is a former major finalist. She's still. hits that huge ball. I'm still on the Madison keys train. All right. So we differ. Finally, I have, I took the crazy route of Ega over keys, but I like sub sub coming into this draw show.

I was 95% sure, without seeing the draw, who I was going to choose as the winner. I think especially on hard courts, I think Sabalenka, especially in majors, has proven that she's different. And she came in, won Brisbane. As soon as she won Brisbane, I think that that was already written in, regardless of what these tiny names on the page say. But I like Sabalenka. John and I both like Sabalenka to win the tournament.

Yawn. You guys have Americans doing pretty well. That's because they're really good. They're really good. It's the first time I haven't chosen just Bagula to the finals in a while. Yeah, exactly. That was a good pick. Just a quick macro point on this whole event. You know, sometimes we do tennis history and there are all sorts of like kooky one-hit wonders from the 80s when not everyone played this event. This...

Last 25 years or so. Go through the Australian Open. It's pretty chalk. I mean, it's a lot of Serena. It was three in a row for Martina Hingis when she ruled the roof. Naomi Osaka coming off U.S. Open wins. There have been a couple of surprise, you know, some Jenny Brady, some surprise finalists, but the winners have not been.

particularly far down on the draw sheet here. Yeah, you're right. I mean, what comes to mind is we've discussed Kennan. We've discussed, I think the big one is Tommy Johansson in 2002 from Sweden coming through and beating Safin.

and his player box uh that year if i remember correctly which the Safin player box yeah this is Wertheim's grin means that he is a knowing knowing smile our two non-tennis people have no idea what we're talking about go ahead and go ahead and google Safin player box Australian Open 2002 Then you'll understand that knowing. Mike's on it. And while you're doing that, I will get to the men's draw. But first, let's take a break. Oh, fine. It's not. Support for our show comes from Blue Owl Capital.

Hey, Mike, you know, it was a pivotal moment in my career, a specific match where I knew I had to become a little bit more professional. I was a good player, but maybe didn't have it all figured out yet. No, I don't. Which one? I played Michael Chang. Okay. in Roland Garros in the second round in 2001. I had 99 problems and cramps were one. Cramps in the fourth set.

I realized, oh, this is big boy tennis now. You got to play best of five. Your body needs to be ready to go all the time. Michael was awesome, gracious at the handshake, told me what to do for the next two hours. And so, gosh, recovered, felt good, and then went out and lost the next round.

But what does any of that have to do with Blue Owl Capital? Glad you asked, Mike. Glad you asked. Just like athletes are making their mark in the game of tennis, Blue Owl is doing the same thing in the investing landscape through vision and... Discipline. That's what I learned, Mike. That match. Well, it's redefining alternatives for investors and companies seeking private capital for long-term growth.

So stay on the lookout for the Blue Owl logo and their sponsored players during the Australian Open this year. Check out what they're all about at blueowl.com slash investing. Nice show, fuck me. And we're back. I don't know. Are we back, Mike? We're back. I'm allowed to speak again. Well, yeah, we just had to get a little word in about our good friends at Blue Isle Capital. I get it. I get it. I understand what a professional producer Mike is. All right. We know.

Top of the draw is going to be Yannick Sinner. Cards on the table. It's going to be tough for me to pick against him on a hard court as well. We just talked about Sabalenka. He did the same thing last year. Won seven tournaments, only lost six matches total. Winning in Australia, winning whenever the surface wasn't super slippery, whether it was clay or grass or whatever. So I'm going to take my first look at the draw. Not the easiest first round as I look down. Nicholas Yari.

Wortham loves this guy. Didn't you pick him to like win six Roland Garros's just last year? I think it was only five. He really came through with that first round defeat off the bat. It was a terrible call. 29 years old now. Can that be right? I looked up the head-to-head, it's one-to-one, and then I said, oh, but it was when Yannick Sinner was like 11. It was like five years ago, so don't read too much into that. Not an ideal first-rounder for Sinner, but he'll get a proper opponent.

he'll likely get through. Yeah, and as I'm looking at this section, a lot of big names. It's just we've gotten to the point with Sinner where even if it's an insanely tough matchup, you can't really choose against him. At this point, he's gotten to that level where if he's playing well, a lot of times the matchup is a little bit more irrelevant, right? Like it's not as if, oh, he's playing well, but this will really get under his skin. This will really bother him, even if it does.

It seems like he can, I think of the matchup against Barrettini last year at Wimbledon first round, where it's like, that could be the worst draw in the entire tournament. And he went out, handled his business, even with... Everything's circling that we didn't really know about at the time. Sinner Sinner is going to be... Runa is the 13 seed. I don't think he gets there. I think I like...

Matteo Berrettini, Cam Nori first round. That is a popcorn match. Nori got in trouble. Didn't he hit a fan in Auckland? I like Cam. I love Cam Nori. I think he's a workhorse. I have nothing but respect for what he does. And he did not get defaulted in that. Am I correct? Techie Sean, is that what you said? I don't believe so. So like you can't throw a racket or hit a ball and hit a fan and not get default. I hate this where there's no clarity on this rule.

Novak, he's from New Zealand, though. Isn't the rule, it's like Mickelson in Winston-Salem. If you're from the home country, don't you get a pass? Only if you play for Great Britain. Yeah, right, right. No, he was very, I mean, for the record, he was very apologetic. He's a good dude. Like, of course he would be. Yeah. I like Hercotch. I'm taking Hubie through. We got a bunch of matches at United Cup to varying levels of success, but has played.

Using a Wilson racket now. Sinner against Hubie. Do you have someone else against Sinner? And I'm assuming Sinner is getting through to the third round at least, JW. This is the year of Holger Runa. His boat is, you know, the engine stalled out last year and it was sort of puttering in the fjords of Denmark and now he's ready for action. But why? You just wanted to use the word fjord.

I just wanted to use the word puttering. I think, I don't know. I mean, I'm not a huge Hercotch believer. Just when matches tighten, he tends to tighten with it. Yeah, I don't know. Is Berrettini going to get through? Do you like Berrettini over Runa's second round? He plays double Z first round. Runa doesn't have any... Runa's a brutal draw, and he hasn't been playing well early this year.

21 years old, fresh legs. He's got the wisdom in the coaching box. I don't know. He's too good a player to lose this early in a major, isn't he? No, he's proven he's not, especially on a heart. He hasn't won a match like hardly ever at the U.S. Open. No. You take Runa. You got Runa. You can have him. The good thing about this show is we actually get, you know, we're...

making silly predictions, but we'll get some answers. Well, some of us are. All right, let's go. Let's go to the next one. Sitsipas, Alex Mickelson. What's that noise I hear? What's that beeping? Hype horn. That one. I'm going to just put a little, little, little circle. Little circle around Adrian Brody when he did that ill-advised Rasta skit that got him kicked off Saturday Night Live. Yeah, we need an upset horn. It's beeping. I think Mickelson's got a real chance here.

I do too. I'm not, I don't know if I'm completely committed yet. Um, but I am looking real hard at it. Hatching off, uh, Hatching off. I think I'm going upset special. The game's better when Steph is playing well. The speed of the court and the reports of the speed of the court are stressing me out a little bit.

I'm going to go Mickelson, and this is probably just a homer pick if we're being honest, but he played well. I think he made the quarters. Auckland losing to our new favorite player who John will talk about in a little bit from Stanford. I like Alex Mikkelsen through. In the next section, Sarundalo Bublik. Oh, Demon's going to like. Okay, well, that makes it simple. I'm going to go Demon.

With the Sarundalo section, Van de Zanskulp, I mean, no one wants to play Van de Zanskulp first round at a major, do they? Or second round at a major? So the guy who beat Carlos Alcaraz at the U.S. Open. It's hard to pick against Alex Dimonor in this little pocket, isn't it? Berg still making a run the week before. Demon, I have Demon and Sinner in the last eight. Does that make sense to you at all? Unfortunately, it does, yeah. Over Holga Runa? No Runa to beat Sinner upset from you, huh?

I mean, weirdly, if Holger gets there, he can actually, you know, maybe he has the upside there, but he's got to get through two really tough matches to even have a shot. like a like legit heart yeah no i i'm nope sinner sinner and demon uh oh next one's interesting taylor fritz and jensen brooksby i think you know i think um if you remember that us

A few years ago, Taylor Fritz had to play Tracy's son, Brandon Holt, in the first round. And it seemed to get in his head that he was playing a fellow American. It was a match he was supposed to win. He knew the guy's game. He didn't have much animosity. This is someone he knew quite well from Southern California. It did not.

It did not lead to Taylor Fritz's best tennis, and he lost that match. I don't know. Maybe there's some similar vibes here. He'd rather play someone from a different country or someone a little more obscure. He knows Brooksby's game well, but Taylor Fritz has been... So good. And keep in mind, he's coming off reaching a major, reaching the final of his previous major. I think Taylor Fritz breezes through this match and breezes through week one.

Oh, okay. Wait, hold on. Time out. I'm not going to let you get away with that, uh, that easily because your guy, your guy is sitting there waiting for, for, for Taylor Fritz. Don't just gloss over that shit. Like you haven't. been singing about this guy for the last couple of months. You like Fritz over Pericard. I hate to say this.

Yeah, you're going to give me shit for this. Perry Card, by the way, number seven with the odds makers. You think people haven't taken notice of this guy all of a sudden. But I just, I worry about best of five. And... You can serve great for an hour. You know, look at Monfils' results so far this year. As we speak, he is in the Auckland semis, has actually played really well defensively.

I don't think this is an easy, I don't think this first round match, Monfils against Pericard is a gimme. And then, yeah, if you're giving me Taylor Fritz in a best of five match with his experience and his sort of tennis IQ against a guy who's just serving bombs, I... Love Perry card. I think it's, it's a lot more than serve botting, but I don't think Taylor Fritz is going to get upset by this kid. Do you? The matchups.

because Taylor likes rhythm. He likes to be able to kind of be the enforcer. It's, I'll tell you this much. It's not the draw that Taylor Fritz wanted to see because a lot of it's going to be out of his control. Right? Like when you're playing these monsters, it's going to get to four or five all in a breaker. I think you have to give a tip of the cap. I'm taking Fritz. I'm not choosing the upset. I just think less of you because you didn't.

is all that's the five man he changes everything but the part that he did it's like he he goes i'll take fritz to the third or fourth round without even mentioning his guy like as if we were going to like gloss over the fact that Petchy pair of cards, his guy. And we like, we weren't going to at least acknowledge that. Right. Wait, I thought you would have said 38 year old guy. I'm on fees. They're, they're countrymen, two different generations. Guys playing great. Great. I, that's.

Super. I just, it just, but Gael is not the guy that you're talking about as the breakout star of 2025. what about number number seven with the odds are you gonna wait do you okay hold on hold on hold on we're committing we're spending too much time on this but i can't i can't sorry mike i can't lay off of this so you've mentioned monthies are you taking petty paracard to even get to fritz

Or you have Monfils upset special. I think he gets to Fritz. I'm just saying this, this guy, I mean, look, I love this guy. And some of this is probably just emotional more than anything. I don't think a 20-year-old in best of five matches playing a very tough first-rounder is a guy who's going to take out Taylor Fritz. You know what my kid's favorite thing to eat for breakfast is on school days? Waffles.

It's waffles. All right. Ben Sheldon, Brandon Nakashima. This is a, no, they wear flip-flops while eating waffles. What? What's that sound I hear? Oh, is he doing it? Yeah. Hypoorn, Shelton Nakashima. Are you doing it? Yep. Wow. I am. He's doing Nakashima over Shelton. Shelton loses first round of his warm-up event. So Nakashima, and then you look at, I don't think, some really, really good players. Bautista, Gu, Chapo, Arnoldi, Musetti playing well out of the gate this year. Do you have...

Nakashima to play Fritz? Or do you have Musetti to play? Yes? No. I'm all in on Nakashima. Gosh, you know what? You know what? You know what Wertheim does? Flip-flops? Well, that, but... when you take an upset you ride that upset like three rounds like you you won't for the life of you you won't take nakashima to upset shelton and then have nakashima lose to missetti Which, you know, by the way, you know, that's completely counter to what statistically happens so often, which is...

You know, Van de Zancho beats Carlos Alcaraz and then barely shows up for his next match. But no, I think Nakashim is only a few spots away from... from getting seated. So it's really unfortunate for Shelton anyway. But I think I'm a Nakashima believer. We need to shorten this. We need a portmanteau, but I'm a Nakashima believer.

Yeah, he's been great. He had a great summer last year. I like Fritz out of the section. I like Musetti. Wait, so who did you take? Shelton or Nakashima? I'm going to take Shelton just because he didn't, and that's fun. But I think his concern for Sheldon in this matchup early in the season, I think Nakashima gets some help on his forehand side when the court's a little bit quicker. I think it's not going to stress him at all on the backhand side. Great two-hander.

is going, is strong enough to knock down Shelton's serve. Shelton's played well here. He likes these conditions. If it gets hot next week, that is a huge benefit to Ben Shelton. Like the heat, his ball jumping off the court. I'm going to take Shelton. I'm going to have Musetti to get to Fritz only because of that Nakashima matchup, right? It's a bit of a hedge. I think Musetti is more likely to be there than Shelton, but I think Shelton...

Shelton's going to have to get through Nakashima and Musetti. I like Musetti's draw to get there a little bit better, even though in a head-to-head matchup, I'd probably take Shelton. So it's a bit of a hedge, but either way, it doesn't matter because I like Fritz getting through that section. All right. Next one. Ooh, this is it. This is the one. This is what I've been waiting for. Love Rublev. Tip of the cap.

Has been a monster of the game for a while. But here it is, Fonseca. I have randoms texting me about Fonseca. Like, people that are kind of tennis fans going, like, his name is kind of... And by randoms, I mean producer Mike. It's just, he is one of those names where you expect him to have a five next to his name at some point.

in the next two or three years at a major i think he's that good i am taking fonseca first round against against rublev are you taking rublev or is the excitement too much for you jw No, can I go on a 30-second rant here? This guy is, everyone has identified this guy as a talent. It's from a part of the world that, frankly, we could use some more tennis talent from. There hasn't really been a lot of Brazilian talent since Guga.

He goes and he wins in Jeddah, the next gen final. And what do they do? Tennis makes him qualify for the next event. So he doesn't have a five next to his name. He has a Q next to his name. What does that mean? It means he's not only crossed oceans, but has played in. lot of tennis and i just i worry young kid he's already had to play three matches the tons of talent everyone's talking about him

Can you not give him a wild card? And now he comes and he plays a seed with six sets under his belt. I don't know. Fully disagree. Fully disagree. If your ranking hasn't gotten you in, he played all last year. He was healthy all that. No.

You'll get a free pass because of the next gen. Wouldn't it be nice if the next gen winner, the young talent you've identified is like future star gets an automatic in instead of some Aussie who's, you know, fine goats during the year. So you just take it away from an Aussie player because it has.

happens to be the first grand slam of the year. Yeah. A hundred percent. Yeah. Not a, I mean, actually the next gen, like winning the next gen, even bigger. Fine. I think it's great, but there has to be, what are you giving?

the australian open for that like the atp doesn't run the australian open there is a very clear and very uh talked about divide between the tours and the slams the tours have exactly no leverage over the slams in any decision making so how does this actually get done past like prospect like past like easter bunny prospect everyone's talking about

is more deserving. That's not the conversation. All right, whatever. Let's not go down. My point is I wish this guy didn't have to qualify for the main draw because now I worry what his... stamina and durability will be like, especially against a veteran seated player. So I love this match on paper. I think Rublev gets through a very tired kid. Yeah, I don't disagree with you. The next one, Sonogo, Wawrinka. Let's see how many.

Many more trips around the tennis sun. Stan Wawrinka has. Hopefully it goes well. I like Fonseca either way, but I bet JW's taking Fonseca. How far are you riding the upset? Let's see if I'm right here. No, I'm not. I would on paper, but I don't see this kid beating. Yeah, I don't think he's beating Rublev. Does Francis get through that section over Rublev?

You ever see 30 Rock when they do Liz Lemon? Yes. We do Lululemon for Francis. Keep an eye on his attire and his footwear when he makes his debut. I think Francis gets through. Oh, wait, so you got that text from Max Eisenbud, too? Let's continue on, shall we? I can't wait till I can see the smart now. I think Francis in his new attire gets through here. I like Francis getting through as well. Poprin Mute, Hijikata, Mitchell Kruger. Good effort. Kruger getting through qualies there.

Learn a teen. No, he's, he went on a, he ripped city last year in challengers. This guy lefty can create some speed on the ball. Uh, anyone, one, I don't think Popper gets through. I like, you like this one? Hijikata. Getting through to play Medi has started the year pretty well. But obviously, I like Medvedev going through to face Francis in this section. You taking anything else, JW?

I don't know where Medvedev, you know, he obviously didn't play any tune-ups, didn't play any exos, and people wondered why, and then he gave us a pretty good... Pretty good alibi. Pretty good excused absence there. Congratulations to him. Became a father for the second time. I don't know how that will impact his performance. It might be a disguised blessing. He'll get a good night's sleep and maybe this...

gives him some head-clearing perspective. Former finalist, I like Medvedev to get through here. You mentioned Lerner team, though. Yeah. If I'm not mistaken, he didn't play any warm-up tournaments last year and was a set away from winning the tournament.

I'm not worried about reps for Medvedev. Not many people have gotten more over the last five years than he has. I like Medvedev. I just have a hard time picking against him best of five. I love Francis. I love Francis more in majors than I do, you know, the other. however many weeks out of the year uh but i like medvedev i like fritz uh to get to the semis and i jumped the gun but here we are that's that's what i like we'll get back to that we'll get back to the quarter matchups here in a second

Novak Djokovic. And can you pronounce Baza Veretti? I've been... exploded onto the scene in Auckland this week, and at least the semis, and who knows when you listen to this, might be even further. Give me a little bit of backstory on the man that will take on Novak Djokovic first round.

Great story. 19-year-old Southern Californian, nice backhand. He's working a lot with Roger Ebram, and he was a very fine college player at Stanford not long ago, a few months ago, and said, you know what, maybe we'll give this... Maybe we'll give this pro tour, maybe we'll give this a shot. And he proved to be boss of a ready, as it were. You can edit that out. No, he's won a lot of matches, made the next gen, just beat, just beat.

Alex Mickelson, he beat Tabillo also in Auckland. 19 years old, really talented kid. Not a huge ball striker, but hits bigger than he is. I think he's only about... maybe five, 10, five, 11, a buck 50, but actually plays pretty big. This is a real talent. And.

He's very close to the top 100 already. Do I think he's going to give... This guy was a Stanford undergrad taking engineering classes a few weeks ago, and now he gets to play Novak Djokovic first round of the Australian Open. Keep an eye on this kid. I don't think he's...

necessarily giving Novak much of a match, but it's been a really exciting few weeks for him. Yeah, but if you're Ram and you're in his corner, at least you can bank on the fact that Novak hasn't had much success at the Australian Open over the years. Historically, it's been a bit of an Achilles heel for Novak Djokovic because some years he didn't win. It's tough. He's lost to like at least three people there over the years.

Anyways, I like Novak through the section. One thing that we're going to talk about, and it's weird that it's coming back up because we spent some time on the Opelka-Novak matchup in our last show that came out Tuesday. I was going to say last week, but it was just a couple days ago. I made the point, three out of five sets changes everything. And so I like, I think Opelka Novak, assuming Riley is somewhat healthy, I think he gets through.

that section but mahach is is is so good that mahach opelka matchup is either one of those guys wouldn't surprise you if they were in the semis of a slam at some point i feel like mahach is is going to be maybe top 10 this year Who knows how that shakes out? I'd take Novak either way. But three out of five sets matters, and you mentioned it, big servers over the course of four or five hours in the day.

How much less likely is Opelka to pull off upset special against Novak three out of five sets versus two out of three sets in a covered indoor court where the serve sounds a pops, the toss is always in the right spot. You're not having to. throw it up to avoid the sun. All of those factors we might see in real time that we gave some time two, three days ago, right?

Yeah, I think that's a good point. I think that's why we're, you know, as happy as we are for some of these encouraging results, I think that's why we're not reading too much into a Perry card or an Opelka transferring that to deep runs at a best of five major. And then the next section, my sleeper for this year. It's your boy. He's not a sleeper anymore. Why? Because he won.

Brisbane? That's a 250. Is he still a sleeper? Yeah, because it helps me be self-congratulatory as long as he's still a sleeper. So obviously he's still a sleeper. Okay, so GoFund, Bronzi, Fognini, Dimitrov, in case you wanted to watch an excess of talent on both sides of the net in a first rounder. I obviously can't go against Lahetchka here. Like, I need to... I will pick my sleeper through to lose to... I don't know that I can take him over Novak, but...

I'm telling you, Lahechka can play. Who do you have come out of this section with Dimitrov and Lahechka? Or is it a Fognini or is it a David Goffin? I think you're selling yourself short. Yeah, I think Lahechka is... I don't even think it's a close call. And David Grimitrop I don't think is 100% physically. Okay. I think Leheshka is getting through this, and I'm not sure this is where his ride ends, but we can get to that in a minute. We got Novak and LaHechka matchup.

That's what you're both going with? That's what we're coming back to. I mean, are you going to, you want to run this out to the quarters here? You want to do it? Are you going to do it? I'm going to give, I'm going to give you a hot take. CZE is the ITA. of 2025. What do I mean by that? What Italy was to last year, the Czech Republic is to this year. This is like a tennis powerhouse. I think Mahac may beat Novak.

As crazy as that sounds. It's a tough draw for Novak, by the way. And I think Leheschka beats, I think we have CZE, CZE, and I think Leheschka's into the quarters. No, he's not having a seizure. He's talking about the check when he says, he's not saying CZA. Kendrick reference it's this is a this is a really tough section for for Novak uncomfortable matchups like Mahach can

can beat anyone in the world for pace on a given day. Opelka obviously serves from a tree. Lahetchka, he's my guy. I think he's going to be borderline top 10 this year. This is tough. And... If you look at this section, all the variables, all of these guys not having gone super far, with the exception of Grigor, in a slam before...

I don't disagree with anything you're saying about the matchups and the potential, but if I look at this section, who is most likely to get through it to the quarterfinals? I think my answer is still Novak. Individual matchups, I'm scared. It's like, this is a brutal draw. But if I look at the four or five players that we think have the potential to get through to that section.

I still think if you run a simulation, I still think Novak gets there the most amount of times. And, you know, believe it or not, I assume he feels pretty comfortable on this court. When you need both hands to count titles somewhere. and like full use of both hands to count titles somewhere. I'll take Novak through, but I don't disagree with a lot of your takes. Wait, 30 seconds real quick. You said...

You said Novak on this court, and you're absolutely right. I mean, he has no doubt where he's going to play every single match. How much of an advantage is that? It's an advantage. I think when you're not having to adjust, cause not all courts are exactly the same. Yeah. Right. So, I mean, listen, this is, he's going to walk out into that court and feel like someone gave him a hug. Like he knows.

The way it bounces, he knows the way it sounds. He's been in this before. You have a given memory set on a certain court. So yeah, I think it matters. And none of these players are going to play there before they play him. It's not as if... Grigor is playing a top Aussie prospector. It's not as if, you know, LaHechka is going to play, you know, there before. So it's going to be their first time this year, at least, and probably first time overall.

For some of them. How much does that matter against an Opelka? Big servers like kind of tight courts. For some reason, it makes the serve feel bigger. If someone can create some space, go back, that matters too. So yeah, I don't think it's a nothing factor. I think... We get carried away with a lot of this stuff sometimes, but I think Novak and his track record, that's a great point. As much as I hate to give you credit for it, JW. Waffle. Waffle flip-flop.

It's like, like that one section was like, I'm eating an Eggo while wearing Tevas is, is what that was, which is a, maybe a bad combo. Yeah. Teva is technically on a, on a flip flop. That's how bad it was. Yeah. I got caught. Technically, you're also right. All right. Let's get to the next one. Unless you guys want to hear about footwear.

By the way, how do we feel about just flip-flops in general? Like flip-flops on planes. Can we talk about that for a second? No, that's disgusting. Because it happens a lot. So obviously we're not... Sean, are you a flip-flop guy? Do you flip-flop on planes? He said thumbs down. Are you no longer working on this podcast? I was worried he was checking bags and wearing flip-flops. Dude, he's definitely checking bags. Because he's like, flip-flop, he's like, I packed my all-terrain flippers.

He's like wearing like the, what are the ones where you can see people's toes? No one wants to see a toe on a plane. No. Yeah, exactly. Right? Gross. You know when people take a nap and they kick it off and you're staring at some guy's hairy coat? Oh, God. Hey, Jack Draper's up. Which is a natural segue to the Draper section. You're welcome. You know the section before that we thought was our worst segment ever? I think we just beat it. I think this is it.

This is our first draw of the year, too. How do you think it's going to feel to never win an award? I mean, we have a shot at something. At what? I don't know. There's podcast ones that you can pay to get them. We're going to have to. That's our only chance. All right. Jack Draper, Navone, Kokonakis, who pulled out today. Saffulin. Sebastian Korda is going to play Tommy Paul in the semis.

in the week before quarterback uh again like you feel like he's just been stops and starts where he he had a lot of momentum beat taylor fritz in canada last year had a great run and then Got hurt again and was out for three months. The eye test tells me he's top 10. Hasn't quite gotten there yet. The Draper Corda section, who do you like coming out of this section? JW.

Corda at the event his father won about a quarter century ago. No, we had Corda on Tennis Channel playing Davidovich Fokina the other day. It looked like two players almost playing a different sport. I mean, they're close in age, close in ranking, and it was like... I think it was like two and three. Korda looked terrific. And this guy, he's beaten Medvedev in Australia before. Seems healthy. That's always the asterisk. I think Korda's got a real chance to go deep, deep, deep here.

Okay, we'll get to that in a second. But you have, you're not worried about Draper, Kokonaka second round. I have Draper through to lose to Korda. I don't see a lot of... issues to that point um if we go to the next section jordan thompson who by the way a professional like winning he just knows how to win matches he's a he's a high iq Tennis player doesn't get a lot out of the forehand side, but when you watch him play, you feel like he's always correctly attempting to solve a problem.

right like I watch his matches and even if he loses just based on merit where you know he's going up against a sinner At least what he's trying is what I feel the consensus would be on high-level tennis brains in the room. I have a lot of respect for the way that he goes about his business. That being said... Alcaraz. I don't know. Are you Alcaraz Korda in that section? Yeah.

Yeah. Are you taking quarter over Alcaraz? Cause you had mentioned you jumping again here. No, we're going to, we're going to get to the quarters. So quarter Alcaraz, can you just, can you, are you going to, I know you look like you're going to, you want to do something. Korda Alcaraz. Who are you taking? And then it gets interesting. Well, it gets interesting if you make a pick on Korda Alcaraz. I think Korda...

Provided there are no injuries that flare up in the first week. So he's going to have this. He's really taking this Czech thing far. It's like even sons of Czech players he thinks are going to break out here. C-Z-E. Not to be confused. Wait, seriously. I think we got some memo with the Olympics. I think you have to call it like...

I wish Martina were here to correct me. You can't say Czech Republic anymore. It's like Chechia or something like that. Is my mic still working? See if that catches on. The country now is Chechia. They were saying on Tennis Channel the other day, and apparently it was... Correct. And I didn't know what was going on. Okay. So you have a Hetchka and Korda in that section. Just saying. Interesting. All right. Down to the next one. Casper, Rude, Munar.

Ooh, that's a tough one. Rude Mensik. I'm going to need a second to think about that one. What is that flag next to Mensik's name? Oh, it's a check flag. Oh, so you got him to the final? Yep. Again, I'm beating Casper. 19 years old, just beat Shelton. You're really giving a lot of credit to the place they were born.

19 years old, just beat Ben Shelton, plays Casper in round two. Do you have like a tourism deal that we don't know about? Jeez. We do sports gambling here. Can we gamble in like sushi or something? So I'll tell you this. I always, and this doesn't mean you're wrong about any of it, but I always would go into like the locker room and I would go in and I'd see.

like some of the Czech players, like you come in and if you see someone who's like super, super tan, it's like, oh, they've been in heat. They've been training in conditions that will be similar to Aussie. If I saw a Czech guy walk in. And pale as could be, I'm going, that guy hasn't been in heat yet. Honestly, it's like a real thing. But yeah, no, you're going to be great. Do you have Rude going over? I don't know yet. I'm Shang.

FAA. Okay. I know what I'm going to do here. I think I agree with him, even though I'm giving him shit. I'm going to go Mensic. FAA. I'm going FAA quarters here. Whoa. Yeah. How about that? How about them apples? You got mentally engaged as well, right? Yes. Everyone's everyone's good. So that means you have been the final.

Okay, this is a good question. No, because he's not married yet. Okay, well, let's let him tell his own story here. So if you go check versus the potential I do effect, is it only after they're married where you put them in a Grand Slam final? Or is it does engagement? count at all? Is it half? And how do you value just a commitment to lifelong monogamy versus being born with CZE? This is the stuff people want to hear. Go.

We can't get analytics in tennis for like errors versus winners. This is like by orders of magnitude, you're asking too much. 29 next to Felix's name is... That's an awful big number for a guy a lot of us thought would be winning majors. Be nice to see if he had a nice event here. So you didn't tell me anything. Okay, so Tabilo. All right. To be honest, I like Tommy. Okay. I, I said, I meant FAA over, over men sick. Uh, I like Tommy Paul to the quarters in his section.

Watch Kenny Shikori's second round. Just made finals in Hong Kong. Plays well on fast courts. Could actually take time away from Tommy Paul. Tommy Paul, unbelievably well-rounded player. Not someone that's going to serve you off the court. So... That one I have circled as a potential upset special, but I'm not going to choose against Tommy Paul. Playing Korda has matches in pre-Ozzy Open.

So if you have, do you have Paul or Mensik getting through to the quarters in that section? Or are you going high porn on Nishikori over Paul's second round? No, I think, I mean, look at that. That pocket for Tommy Paul. Again, a guy who's been to the semis of this event. I think Tommy Paul is very nice. You ever see that show, Is It Cake? I wouldn't go quite that far to call this a cake.

This is a really nice pocket for Tommy Paul, though. To Tabilo, the only seed in his little quadrant, just lost to Basavoretti. I like Tommy Paul in the is it cake pocket. your kids watch that show by the way oh yes our kids can't get enough can't get enough of it all right i just had visions of my daughter going that's cake it's cake i'm like and i'm going no it's not and it was

Anyways, okay, Ugo Umber, this is hard-eating stuff. Umber hasn't quite gotten off to the start he wants this year. Oh, Arthur Fies. Who do you have in the, if we were... So you guys have heard before this podcast. You know, we have to say everyone's name correctly, but whenever I went to France, it was Haudique and I had no, I couldn't, I had no say in the matter. So if we were doing, since we're in a gym in America, who do you have in the Humbert Phil section?

I think I'm filling with fills. Quick hat tip to Habib, the first Lebanese player to ever make a major main draw. That's awesome. But I think Artie. I think you're right, by the way. I think we've talked about this before, but it was always like Venus Williams. I'm like, she's only the number one player in the world and you can't get her name right, but somehow you mispronounce...

you know, Richard instead of Richard Gasquet and you're a Philistine. Yeah. If you say Richard, Richard Gasket, it's like you, you walk the plank. Right. But they can say Venus Williams. I'm like, yeah, she's only number one in the world. Anyway. I like arty. Why even go that far? That's pretty formal. Just go art. I might go art for a reason. I like art. Yeah, all right. Baez, Kuzo.

Another art. Fernley, Kyrgios, Zverev. So a lot of question marks here. JW, have you heard any update on Zverev's injury? We undersold that, by the way, last week when we were talking about United Cup. We didn't talk about it. And we should have this guy is in the tail end of us, you know, the finals of a slam, you know, potentially every year. Do we have an update on on what's bothering Zverev at all? I don't know. There was a photo. I mean, I'm going off.

Twitter. This is, you know, we'll be in Santa Monica for tennis channel, but for the record, we won't be on site, unfortunately, which sort of hampers these kinds of things. I know I'm going off the same thing everyone else is, which is.

There was some abdominal injury, but he looked like he was good practicing. It's what you were talking about before. It's always hard to tell before majors how much of this is precautionary. You'll win more money for winning a couple of rounds than you will for tournaments. This is what careers, these are the tent poles.

How much of these are serious injuries? How much of this is just I want to be as close to 100%? I'm going to work on the assumption he's okay. I'm basing that. This is like Facebook. No fact-checking. I'm basing this on Twitter and Instagram, but he does seem to be okay. All right. And Kyrgios, does his stomach muscle feel better because he's not playing Mensik? No Mensik. No checks in the area.

Do you think Kyrgios plays, and do you think, does he get to Zverev? Hot take? Sure. How often does this happen? Serious question for you. How often does a player wait to see their draw before making a decision? Rarely. So if Kyrgios had to play pick your poison, you know, he had to play a seed first round and said, there's no way in hell I'm beating Taylor Fritz.

in my compromised physical state in a best of five match, he pulls. And if he says, I've got, you know, a British player barely in the top hundred, maybe I can play myself into this tournament. Does that ever happen that a player waits until the draw to make the decision? Not normally. But also it normally doesn't happen that you play a match a couple of weeks before a slam, say it'll be a miracle if I actually make it there because of...

how my wrist felt, and then play doubles match the next day. That rarely happens also. So I don't know. You know, there are a lot of question marks, none of which surround Nick's talent or... uh his ability to knock off the best players in the world um you know in in full flight he's the last guy you'd want to see if you were one of the top players in the world uh is he healthy where's his level at and

Is he fit enough to play three out of five sets? That was a question in the best of times with Nick. So assuming Zverev, I'm assuming you have Zverev going past Art Fills. I do, but reservedly, and I will say that, you know, it's exactly what you said. In the best of times, you couldn't count on Kyrgios durability holding up, and these are not the best of times. That said, look at this draw, and if Zverev is in fact compromised.

this could be an interesting week one for Nick Curious. Yeah, it's interesting because he has matches that he can win with Baez. I mean, I don't know that he could have gone into, and this is no disrespect to Sebastian Baez because he's kind of the opposite of... of Nick in a lot of ways. He's someone who has carved out an unbelievable career, has probably approached Nick's career high at some point of 13, maybe just shy of that. I'm sure he's been around 15, 16, 17.

I don't know if we can check that, but uber professional. You're not worried about him being prepared. It kind of stays under the radar. But if you had to choose a seed, if you're Nick Kyrgios, to play second round. the matchup against Baez with the way that you serve versus the way that he plays on a hard court is probably the one you would choose. And then listen, we talk a lot about, you know, Nick, but...

When he plays the top players, he shows up. When there's not the pressure set of disappointment, he shows up as his full self. So as far as draws go, if you're Nick Kyrgios, you're seeing this and going... oh, this is me time. Like this is, you know, no disrespect to the other three players to get him to Zverev, leaps and bounds with talent, the most talented player in the section, and then he gets the show.

Right. He gets this very of the number two in the world where he can do all of the things without a lot of downside. Right. And so as far as draws go, this has to be something that. Kyrgios, that goes down easily, right? That he digests as a show opportunity. I still like Zverev through the quarters. I need to think a little bit about Paul Zverev there, but let's do what we do.

and go back i already kind of ruined this part because i said i'm taking center to the semis when i shouldn't have in the first segment uh but it could have been worse mike could have told me to just shut up and go to break um he didn't even though Support for our show comes from Blue Owl Capital. Hey Mike, you know it was a pivotal moment?

in my career, a specific match where I knew I had to become a little bit more professional. I was a good player, but maybe didn't have it all figured out yet. No, I don't. Which one? I played Michael Chang. Okay. in Roland Garros in the second round in 2001. I had 99 problems and cramps were one. Cramps in the fourth set.

I realized, oh, this is big boy tennis now. You got to play best of five. Your body needs to be ready to go all the time. Michael was awesome, gracious at the handshake, told me what to do for the next two hours. And so, gosh, recovered, felt good, and then went out and lost the next round.

But what does any of that have to do with Blue Owl Capital? Glad you asked, Mike. Glad you asked. Just like athletes are making their mark in the game of tennis, Blue Owl is doing the same thing in the investing landscape through vision and... Discipline. That's what I learned, Mike. That match. Well, it's redefining alternatives for investors and companies seeking private capital for long-term growth.

So stay on the lookout for the Blue Owl logo and their sponsored players during the Australian Open this year. Check out what they're all about at blueowl.com slash investing. But we probably should right now. All right, and we're back. So you want to do it all now? Yeah. You want to get us out of break? You want to get us back from break? I mean, somebody has to put this train back on the tracks. God. Guy's literally been able to spell tennis for like six months.

producer mike who do you like between sinner and demon and why uh sinner because it's obvious fair enough it's about as good as i could have done there uh who do you like jw I'd say Sinner because it's obvious. No, I just think it's a bad matchup. A lot to admire about Demon, but I don't think he beats Sinner. Yeah, it's it's it's one of those things that we'll continue to talk about with center is like demon. We talk about what are the best parts of him and he is he gives he falls into.

the legacy and the reputation of Australian tennis in such a great way, right? If we look at all-time good dudes, Laver, Rosewall, like in guys that played hard.

that you wanted to see that made you happier when you were in their presence. Pat Rafter, I love, you know, I love Pat Rafter. Leighton Hewitt is the grittiest person I've ever been around in my entire life. And Demon... does a tip of the cap and does a service to those players that have come before him uh as far as australian tennis greats that being said if you look at what he does well you know

Hits a flatter ball, is able to take it early. His wheels might be the fastest person outside of Monfils in a 100-yard dash. And at this point, maybe the fastest person, maybe an Alcaraz. But you get my point. Top five fastest players on tour as far as movement and wheels. Never takes a day off. Always shows up. Played the last five months of last year. Extremely compromised. And he didn't talk about it.

right? Didn't play from Wimbledon, the U S open came up and played, made world tour finals for the first time. I love, I love the demon. I have so much respect for the demon. That being said, you look at what he does well. And then you look across the net and see Sinner and say, oh, he does all of those things probably better and more often and might have too much firepower there. So no disrespect for Demon, regardless of producer Mike's analysis.

But I'm going to go out on a limb and say I like Yannick Sinner to the semis. In this next half, we have Medvedev and Fritz. You can go first, JW. I couldn't do Nakashima. No, I think it's very similar. I think Fritz has really established himself as a player worthy of his seeding, which is now up to number four. I think, unfortunately, jumping the gun. not unlike demon. It's just not a great matchup for him against center as the last, uh, yeah. Yeah.

And then Sinner, yeah, the matchup. Go on now with your point with Sinner and Fritz because I think I'm going to be right behind you on it. No, I think Taylor Fritz is capable of winning a major. I just think that the draw did him no favors, and it's really going to be a tough matchup for him. It's hard to sort of look at X's and O's and game plan a scenario in which he beats center.

Yeah, and I think there's, you look at the top half of the draw, a lot of really fun, exciting storylines that aren't going to be talked about enough, like a Berrettini Nori first round. These are two guys that have been top 10 and made semis and finals of slams very recently. The Sitsipas-Mickelson matchup, Hatchinoff is always there. Zizu Berg's is exciting to watch, but then you get down to Fritz's section where you're looking at Petchi Paracard, Momfist, Shelton, Nakashima.

Shapovalov is exciting. Musetti is exciting. Rublev Fonseca. This is definitely the most exciting section to me. The top half of the draw is... is very, very, very exciting. Francis is like showtime. He's like, he's like the popcorn maker, right? I mean, he's, he's, he's there all the time. That being said, I'm in the same spot. I like Fritz. He's become two years ago. We have this conversation.

And Fritz is great, but have we seen him do this at a major? And now it's as if we've seen him do it at a major. We see him do it every week. You know what you're getting with him all the time. And he flipped the script on matchups. against Zverev's and against Medvedev's last year, right? He used to come up on the short air end of those more often than not. And I think he flipped that last year. That being said, and we've talked about it on this podcast.

especially post-US Open, two very convincing wins at World Tour Finals for center. I think they might've been the same scoreline, a three and four, four and three, something like that. Same sort of scoreline at the US Open. It's tough to go through Yannick's center, right? You can't just beat him for pace. One, he hits it as hard as you. Two, he has more margin because there's more shape.

and he can get out of the corners and defend better if you do beat him to the punch, which is tough for Taylor Fritz. I was talking to someone the other day, and I said, I don't know that I can have more respect for what Taylor Fritz has done. right? I don't know that he's going to be an elite mover. His ball striking is through the roof. He expects to be where he's at. I have so much respect for Taylor and something I can relate to from my own career.

It's just a brutal matchup in this specific thing. It doesn't mean you're not doing something right. It doesn't mean you're not putting in the yards. It doesn't mean you're not putting in the work. This matchup specifically with Fritz and Sinner should it happen is just a very tough one for Taylor Fritz. And I would be fascinated to be in the room with Mike Russell and Paul Anacone.

as they're trying to problem solve this matchup, which on paper and with recent history has been a very, very tough one. But listen, the fact that we're kind of in this section with a lot of... really, really, really tough matchups players were both pretty comfortably putting Taylor in the semis, I think is a tip of the cap to his progress over the last 18 months, two years, three years.

That's really well said. I hope I'm not speaking out of school, but a few years ago, we were talking to Anna Cohn and said, realistically, how good is this kid? And Paul said, really, really good. This guy can win majors. Really? Because his results haven't quite been there. And he said, I'm telling you, this guy will be outworked by no one. He gets mad at himself. He's.

And Paul was sort of, I don't think that's necessarily, you know, you take a look at nice looking guy and he's got the Hugo boss. You don't think of him as necessarily a grinder. And this was three, four, five years ago. Paul was saying this guy. has got what it takes. And Paul was 100% correct. He doesn't take weeks off either. He loves, like, you worry about...

Some people entering too many tournaments. And, you know, I think the conversation is a valid one around Alcaraz, right? They play too much, too little. It seems like he needs to be fresh and motivated and needs the canvas to be nice, not to, you know, van de Zanskulp.

right i think taylor fritz he's like oh he's playing another term it's like all right that's what he does that he's he's like cal ripken like he just he shows up he's out at shortstop you know a lot of credit to him i really have a lot of respect uh for taylor fritz All right, I have these two crazy. In the next section, I have these two crazy guys in the quarters named Novak and Chuckster Alcaraz. I went crazy. And JW went a little safer with Lahetchka and Korda.

So in the battle of your Titans, who gets to the semis here, J.W., Lehechka or Korda? The big variable is health. I'm all in on Sebastian Korda. I mean, if Novak won this whole tournament, it would surprise us, or at least should surprise us, not in the slightest. I don't care what his age is. His track record is what it is. I just, you know, at some point...

Father Time does his little Tarantella dance on everyone, and it's kind of feeling like we're at that point. So I don't want to dismiss Novak out of hand again. He could win this tournament, and we'd say, you know what, how could we have been so dumb to bet against him? Speak for yourself. I think it's time for some new blood. Sebastian Korda is my short answer. Gosh, so in sections with Opelka, Mahach, Lahetchka, Dimitrov.

Draper. Alcaraz. Cordo's your guy. I mean, the Alcaraz is obviously the one that stands out. There's a lot that stands out. Novak, sorry. Good. I like it. I like it when you get nutty. I like it when you get crazy, JW. Take off that jacket. You're ready to party. When Novak beats Alcaraz in a classic, we can all have a good laugh at this, but I think...

Sebastian Korda is a player to watch. I fully agree with player to watch. Also, it's just, is this the one? I don't know that I'm there yet. It's weird. I was about to say Alcarez hasn't played anything. Got a late shutdown, you know. started training camp, but has bought himself a full off season.

by not playing anything into the lead up of Australia. Sinner didn't do it last year. Medvedev didn't do it last year. I think I used to give a lot of credit to it, but I think that was probably based in me projecting my own insecurities for my career where I needed reps.

onto other players, which apparently doesn't matter that much. You know, in Alcaraz, maybe he wants a tournament before, but we have to remember, before he won the French last year, he barely played the clay court season. He played in Madrid a couple of matches. Didn't really play anything else. And we all know how Roland Garros ended up. I'm going to go crazy. I'm going to go out on a limb and take Alcaraz in the final. Nuts. Crazy.

Going for the career major. I'm going to take Alcaraz to the finals. Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Yeah. No, to the semis, sorry. To the final. I'll get him there. I'm going to take... I'm going to take Tommy Paul to the semis, not because I think he wins a matchup head-to-head with Zverev, but just because I think the opportunity to get upset along the way and the fact that we don't know Zverev's injury situation in full. means that I'm hedging against him getting there.

which I want to choose the person who I think is most likely to get there, not who I think will win in a given matchup, Paul versus Varev. If they both get to that quarter, I'll probably choose Varev heads up. But right now, as we stand with the uncertainty around... Zverev's body in injury. I'll take Paul, but I am taking a crazy. I know I got center Alcaraz. I have center winning this tournament. So you're. Taking the top seed and the top seed. On both sides. But I can't mock you.

I can't mock you because I am too. It's supposed to be bad time for incumbents globally, but in tennis, I think we both are going with incumbents. I don't know. I mean, I think... A lot can happen. We're a long way away from the days of a big three. A lot of variables, a lot of externalities. Zverev could win this tournament. He could also go down in the first round.

I'm with you. I think Sinner is your defending champion. No. Go ahead. Wait, so do you have Korda in the finals? No. JW? You have Korda in the finals. Korda and Madison Keys are my off-the-board picks. I think Korda... I'm big on Korda. You probably gathered that over the last hour. Because his father's from CZE? Well, I was a champion 26 years ago.

27 years ago. Actually routed one of the most lopsided Grand Slam finals in history. 2-2-2 over Marcelo Rios. There you go. There you go. Facts. So quick recap. Andy has Saba and Iga with Saba winning. JWS Saba Keys with Saba winning. And then JWS Sinner Korda with Sinner winning. And India's Sinner Alcaraz, real risky. Sinner winning. Well, I always sit here and I think...

One of the things you get with not really JW, because he likes to take swings, he projects the story that he wants to write. But it's like when you do it match by match, it like... I don't know. If I think Iga is more likely to win that given matchup, then I'm going to choose her. Am I in the business of telling you what I think or am I in the business of...

I guess it's both, but I think I have to defer to what I actually think and not just making up stories for likes. What about you, JW? So if Steph Curry is... We're going to cut this if this gets too nerdy. But if Steph Curry's a 90% free throw shooter, right? Nine out of 10 times, he's going to make a free throw. Making two in a row, he goes down to 81%.

Making three in a row, there's only a... And I think you're totally right to view things that way, that in a match, in an isolated situation, yeah, you pick the favorite, you pick the better player. I just think over the course of seven of those... A lot of crazy things can happen. That's why we end up looking silly sometimes. But I don't know. I think at this event in particular, I think it's really hard to go against chalk. I think we need to probably devote 30 seconds to the fact that...

Yannick Sinner, the player we both picked to win the defending champion, we don't know if we're going to see him again after this. What will that do to his motivation and mindset? Didn't seem to impact him in New York, but I think it would be remiss if we didn't at least touch on this.

this shadow. And I think, no, I mean, you know, we, we have fun with this. It's part of predicting as part of sports. It's the whole reason sports gambling is an industry, but it's an easy way also to, to look silly. We'll see what happens. One. piece of bad sushi, one ankle sprain, and your whole draw goes kablooey. But I think that, you know, I think it says something that you and I, all jokes aside, are...

so often in agreement on these picks, because you look at these in isolated matches, and yeah, how in the world are you going to pick, you know, Novak Djokovic to lose to Basavoretti on round one, but you take seven of those together, and a lot of crazy things can happen. Yeah, and...

Also, I want to make the point, like as we go, we'll do, we do a fun redraw show where we basically make fun of each other's picks a week later. But it does matter. And I made the point on this Vera of Paul matchup. You take Paul there just because I know he's healthy. I know he's in form. I think he's less likely to get upset along the way. That might not be true, but save your comments when that matchup does come. And I choose Zverev because I have...

10 more days of Intel. You know, doubling down against something you don't think, it doesn't seem like something that's rational to me. And great point on Sinner. Listen, it's a very real possibility within five weeks, we don't see him for a year. And listen, it was his team, like... You can't get too upset about it. I don't think he personally did something on purpose. I'll never know. But it is your team. He has put himself at risk by virtue of his team's actions.

Unfortunate, but if it happens, I'm going to be sad for tennis. I'm going to be sad for Yannick Sinner, but I can't sit here and say it's absolutely wrong. You know, I'd like to see more of Yannick Sinner, not less of him. I think he's going to end up, you know, as one of our great players. It's unfortunate, but it's the way it is. I have J.W. and I both went crazy.

Sabalenka and Sinner are our winners. He took a little more risk than I did. You know what I'm excited about? Tell me. I'm excited when the I do effect becomes a real stat. At what point, if this takes hold, do people get divorced just so they can get married again and play in tennis tournaments? I don't know. I don't know what happens there, but props. Thanks for listening to serve.

Brought to you by our friends at Blue Owl Capital. We'll see you very soon. Just pumped that it's Grand Slam season. Cheers, JW. Producer Mike. Techie Sean. What do you want me to do? Do you want me to close the show now? Now it's time to close. Do you want to give me a prompt to do that? No, I think you got it. Okay. We'll see you next time.

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