Don't want to be in American Scout Floan show on seven hundred WW on this day of days. Obviously, the biggest story worldwide is Trump issuing new threats against Iran. The deadline for eight o'clock tonight is still on and either they agree to a deal or face What he said is about a four hour blitz. It would destroy every bridge, power plant, desalinization station, pretty much everything and
send them back to the Stone Ages. Overnight to the United States military struct targets on Carga Island, which is an important outpost there, and that sent shockwaves throughout the region in the world for that matter. The question is is the world as we know it going to end at eight o'clock tonight? Maybe not the world as we know it? But in his truth social rant overnight, the President basins said, look, I don't want to obliterate an
entire civilization. But those are pretty strong words from anyone, especially the United States President. On this Doctor Mark N. Slaco at the University of Dayton, former Director of International Studies and the Foreigner Human Rights Studies There also the foremost Middle East expert Middle Eastern terrorism flat from Black Black September to September to love, I should say, is the book mark welcome back? How are you? We got a well, we got a bad connection. I'm going to
put it back on hold. Here, doctor Mark and Selaco, let me try that one more time. You got me? Now? No here you well, okay, there we go. The probability that at eight o'clock tonight el Hell is going to break loose. What would you put on a scale of one to ten, ten being armageddon.
Well, let's hope that he backs off because, and I want to be clear about this, it would be a war crime to do what he is proposing, and members of the servicemen in the military know this. The past, we've talked about Trump being inconsistent, but now he's erratic in a way that raises questions about his mental health. And he's on the verge of asking the military, ordering military to commit crimes on their US Code of Military Justice,
these are war crimes. You can't cannot take out the electric grid the entire country with the intent of not advancing any military objectives, but for punishing an entire population as civilization. He says, you know it's interesting. A few weeks ago, Mark Kelly, you know Pete accept the Secretary of War tried to punish Mark Kelly and others who are making a video and which is simply remended officers that they must not obeyed illegal orders. And last week
except fired Randy George Armytief's staff. One wonders did he sort of communicate that they would not comply with these actions? But make no doubt about it, there's a really critical moment.
This sounds.
It sounds like a joke the way he goes about this. But what is what he's proposing is a very serious in terms of war crimes.
Something I saw Mark indicated the Kinan said, well, you know what, we realize there's a potential war crime here, war crimes, I should say, but if we target dual use energy sites, there may be a loophole therefore us meaning civilian or military. If the military is using some of these resources for military use, then there may be an exemption or at least some gray area there, which of course is you know the lawyers love finding gray areas on things. Legally speaking, is aaron out there, you.
Know, maybe bridges around carg Island. You have to show the military military necessity of this. I mean the phrase from the Geneva Conventions nineteen forty nine, which Dines is signatory, is a wanting death and destruction not justified by military necessity. You know, around there's a large country, march of the country is not anywhere close to many of the bridges. Is going to take out all the bridges as have nothing to do with the conflict area around the Persian Gulf,
carg Island, et cetera, et cetera. And so no, what you're talking about is sending country back to the Stone Age or the Dark Ages because he's going to co elective elect elect grids. This is what Putin and Russians were doing in Ukraine, attacking the power stations to uh weaponize.
The cold winters.
That that is, that.
Is beneath the honor and the dignity of the men and women serve us in uniform.
On the war crimes element too, I guess if you're Trump, you're thinking, well, they have nuclear weapons. Isn't that a war crime? So by me committing a crime, if you're not gonna act in Iran, why should you act on the United States.
I'm not sure the argument there.
I mean, they may have they have riched uranium, right now they're weaponizing the straits. They're they're sort of strategically they have the upper hand on Trump right now. It's frightening.
But no, the argument, well.
They're going to get a bomb and therefore, as staying used to go in war law is silent. Well that's not the case. There are there are there are laws that are embraced by militaries around the world. So no, this idea of the United States in a very unpopular war bombing the country civilian populations is it's not it's an Americans. It's dangerous that the President of States is even staying such things, contemplating such things.
Well, we've saw that. We've seen that before with him where he has you know, he threatened a lot, and then this is how he negotiates and what the outcome is here. You know, I think most people listening would be very surprised if we started flattening the entire country starting tonight as well. But you know, one more point in the war crime saying, I will say that you know you have countries like under the in the International Criminal Court, by the way, be the primary body, but
they have serious limits. There are no jurisdictions over non members state. It's like Russia, China, Israel owned by the way the United States. But you know Syria, Russia, Iraq, Afghanistan, China, Yemen, me And there's a list of countries where war crimes were committed, serious work crimes and they're never prosecuted. So you know what's the threat here? If you know the court isn't gonna come after you, it gives you leeway to do whatever the hell you want. Is the problem
the administration? It is for us. But is the problem more the international the ICC because they don't seem to be too interested in prosecuting and one for wark crimes?
Well, I mean the International Criminal Court. Might I talk about the Geneva Conventions, I separate that from the Rome Statue and the International Criminal Court when we're not a signatory to that.
Uh.
I'm not thinking about international enforcement so much. I'm worried about just the example of the American using his vast power to attack civilians. You're right, you read off the names of all these countries that that flaunt in national law, but we're not on that list. We didn't have a lot belong on that list. I mean militarily, what would that achieve anyway, we're still less. It will be a dark country in the Stone Ages, but oil still will
not be flowing through the Gulf. Rich uranium lies buried under ground, still where it was, exactly the situation was before this war started six weeks ago. So you know, the idea that we're in such a dangerous enemy here that we have to flop through international rules, we have to commit war crimes. It's just it's just militarily unsound thinking.
Uh.
And and Moreland quit frankly, illgal all right?
Uh doctor Mark Anseloca. Yeah, I'm sure most people listening go, Okay, it's Trump. He's got It's a lot of bluster, it's a lot of wind less action. Uh, this is how it negotiates. He says, we're all Hull's going to break loose, and it probably won't. Iran's ten point proposal demanded a permanent end of the war, not to cease fire. Trump blants a deal. You don't want a peace treaty, want
it's a deal deal. Is there any framework that they could bridge those two positions or is this just simply not compatible?
Well, you know, it's insane.
One has I do not have an idea where talks stand. He says, he's talking to someone the speaker of their house, speaker of their parliament, who has no power whatsoever. There's talks going. The Iranians deny the talks are going, and you're right. The deadline will come and go. The President will find some reasons say we'll make good, you know, to free we're negotiating good faith. So I've put this
back so we don't know what's going on. In other words, you can no longer trust the credibility of the president at a time of war.
Yeah, they said that the thrusts are baselests. They're going to keep fighting, and this would be the Republican Guard. Does ur Ant actually believe that they hold more leverage than Trump does right now?
Yes?
I think so.
I mean they're they're fanatic.
I'm not.
I'm not siding with Iran, of course, you know that in any way, shape or form. But uh, yeah, they're they're holding the global economy hostage right now. I mean, China is still getting its way allowed. But you know, you literally may end up with a situation where, uh and the commentator made this point some time ago that there's three to four moves is going to become the Panama Canal. Ships transiting are going to have to pay
Huran for license to go through. This will enrich he's actually enriching uh uh.
Iran right now.
So he may have to go in.
He may have to send them. There's these there's two marine expeditionary units there. There's eighty second eighty second airborne there. They got the islands mapped out. We may end up, you know now the president's in consistence on.
There, but we don't need the oil.
We've got oil. The Europeans should go get it themselves, et cetera, et cetera. That is not strategic thinking that.
Well, it doesn't work that way either. It all goes you know, that's an opeck. Basically everyone puts there to one. You can appreciate it u D. If you have a hairy buffalo party, everybody brings a bottle, you dump it in the same pod and then you drink from that. That's what oil. That's what the global oil supply is. We don't have enough oil. We don't have We may have the oil here, we just we don't have the refining capability to do it all for what we need
on a daily basis. Here that's why we're a participant in this.
Yeah, yeah, I mean.
For the president to say it's a little while abilities he was caught off guard, or except said he was sort of off guard. He didn't realize this would happened. This was this was anybody who knows geography one oh one knows that that's a checkpoint, a choke point for for navigation and for oil. What twenty five percent of the world's oil comes through there. We've known from the very beginning that that was an ultimate weapon to shut
down shut down petroleum movements. So again, the insistency is this the tactically operationally with the military doing a fabulous but strategically no one knows what this war is about anymore except now we're facing this eight o'clock, you know, catastrophic deadline, which the president push off and he'll say something like, well, there's note talks, they ask for more time,
and give them more time. But he's doing it because the military is public tail and we can't morally do this and in four hours going to take down every bridge in a country of nine hundred people, I.
Mean, yeah, that makes me thinks he's not gonna blow the whole place to you know, the Kingdom come. He's doctor Mark Anzelaco, former Director of International Studies, Founder Human Rights Studies at UD in the Middle Eastern terrorism expert on the show this morning on the read on around the President. And by the way, overnight, uh carg Island, which is a military facility as well as I believe there's some oil assets there too, is all struck by
the US military Overnight. Trump's at an eight o'clock PM deadline our time tonight either degree or they're going to hit a four hour blitz and they're going to pretty much wipe out everything in Iran when it comes to infrastructure. Part of that too is, you know, getting back to the issue of what we kind of need the people who are against the regime to like us. The more you bomb the stuff that they need to live on a daily basis, the less they're going to like us. Isn't that counterintuitive?
Yes?
And you hear the President saying, well, will Lucia's monitoring traffic and social media. They Iranian people really want us to keep bombing and keep bomb and keep bombing, and we no one believes that quite at all. Where does regime stand now in our strategic objectives. I mean, now we're facing this deadline, this catastrophic deadline right now, but there's no again, there's no clear strategic goals anymore about this conflict, and the president he's looking foolish.
Well.
The other element here too is mental stability. Yeah, the other element too, Marcus been this thing started with them having nukes, but we've heard about them having nukes since at least the nineteen nineties. And if that's true or out, we don't know. We go in, we wipe some things out, and then we pull back out. I mean, we kind of did that to some degree in Venezuela, right We went in, we got material out of there, and we
got the hell out. That's not happening here. This is looking more and marty every day, like boots on the grounds, and this is extremely unpopular with the American people. I get making sure that they don't get nuclear weapons, and I think he can do that strategically and knock some sites out and set them back a little bit and
maybe have to do that every few years. But wiping out the whole country and the boots on the ground invasion, that's something no, well, very few people in America want outside of maybe the White House.
And then because we're going to bomb them back to the Stone Age, which they deserve, said something along those lines. All but we may consider help we build a country down the road. So what would just the absurdity of that is. I mean, as we know, he shoots from the hip. He just says whatever crosses his mind, whatever he needs to say at a given moment. He literally contradicted himself in the same speech sometimes and so again there's the concerns about his inconsistency. No one knows how
to read him known, how's it erect? But beyond that, it's erratic in a way that raises questions about his mental health.
Mark in Silaco, he floated the idea of the US controlling the straight or her moves and charging tolls. Sept. You know the politics and how you feel about the said, But is that military or legally achievable? What would that tall?
How do you do that?
Well?
I assume so Iron was in talks with the Cutter yesterday or it was Cutter who were sort of the outside deal where they're arranged with the Iranians that their ships will pass through so when they fire the missiles from from batteries on shore. They won't attack this ship because they paid it. They paid a due, they paid a they paid the dues, they paid their fee. So
literally they could make a case by case basis. The Iran would decide they're not going to fire on this ship because they pay their due, will fire on this ship because they don't, And totally United States takes those armaments though the artillery or the missiles capabilities.
In less.
United States takes that capability away. They have militarily the power to just send up imagine insurance fees.
You imagine being god.
The insurances are the killer.
Yeah, yeah, this there's gonna be They're gonna it's gonna be a windfall from around unless we can get on the ground and get those armaments, get there's artillery, get the surface their missiles or surface to surface missiles. They they can literally enforce their demand to close down the oil for any country, uh that has not paid them due.
It's it's shocking, is the you know you.
Look at this to go okay with the chill points of straight or a moose, is there a work around there? We heard about pipelines. You know you look back in history and go the Panama Canal, which I think you brought up a little bit earlier, maybe a previous discussion, that is a little easier to cut through that. But we did that based to get the rubber to not a lot faster because we're building cars. We need oil for those same cars we did well over one hundred
years ago. So the end result here is, is there a work around you could eliminate the Straight of hor Moves from the importance of it? Is that something that's always going to be there, and is there something on the horizon technological in the future that we're going able to get the oil that we need for global supply and as well in the United States of America without having to go through that thirty mile shooting gallery to the Straight of hor Moves. It's being held hostage by the Iranians.
Yeah, I'm just by geography. They'd have to build pipeline just across the Radian Peninsula. Yeah, you know, get good on the Red Sea. So assuming you could do that and scale that to such a scale that you're getting the amount of oil that's coming out by ship per day, it would take years to build up place and would be inadequate. So no, it's the solution to the straights of our moves is to end this war.
But then again, it's up to a rand to decide if they're going to close it every so often, and then we see these price headaches that we've experienced on and off our entire lifetime. He's doctor Mark Anseilaco, former Director of International Studies, founder Human Rights Studies at UD, expert on Middle East and Middle Eastern terrorism as well. And we'll find out what happens at eight o'clock tonight.
Are you hopeful that Trump is basically just rattling the saber and at eight o'clock tonight, a whole hell of a lot of nothing happens.
Yes, I'm hoping because for him to give orders to carry out a campaign of that nature were again with the beneath the United States, beneath the dignity and the honor of the American military, and it's fled out morally on all.
Right, all the best, Mark, we'll talk again soon. I appreciate you, thanks so much for checking in. We'll continue the conversation after news of your reaction of Mark Ensilaga takes some hard chots at Trump, But if you supported Trump and said Hey, you know what, he's not an interventionist. He's not getting involved. We're no more foreign wars. This
is looking a lot like a foreign war. And for me personally, I think, you know, going in every so often, as I said, you launch some missiles, you take out their strategic nuclear sites, maybe set them back a little bit. You've got to do that check every few years or so in order to keep them from having nukes. That
seems reasonable. However, that what we're doing now is so completely over the top you look at it going if we if we do what he says he's going to do, are we looking at the precipice of World War three? Because I think we are. We'll get into that just ahead here, Sloan he seven hundred wild. All right, we're inside ten and a half hours to go before the
bombs fly in Iran. If you believe word by word what President Trump says that he wants to move forward with this, I think anyone who followed the president either supported him or a student's corner realize that he says, rattle's a saber a lot, but really doesn't follow through with these things. Now, could he be wrong this time? I think that's a distinct possibility. The reason why is we know above all else that Iran is threatening his ego.
And when they come out and say, listen, you know you're not negotia with anybody' in negoatiating with yourself, that's a shot against him. Also when he talks about what he's about to do or threatens to tonight and they said it's baseless and we're going to keep fighting. So he doesn't like to have his bluster answered with more bluster and call him a liar. And that's why I
don't know. Is it a coin toss. I have no idea how to I know how to handicap this one, but certainly it has a potential to be extremely better. And I think about this. If he follows through, you're talking no power grids, so hospitals, water treatment, communications, heating, cooling, it's all gone. You're talking a country of around ninety million people. If you wipe out all the bridges, there's no supply chain anymore, so food and medicine can't move.
That means starving kids, women, children. Logistics becomes kind of night marriage the area, and at some point, if you decide you do have to go in in country. You've got to now move your military equipment there, which means building stuff, which costs even more money, not to mention
the humanitarian catastrophe there and the retaliation. I think that's probably real because these people, you know, and again it is the ruling class that rules with that iron grip, and they don't want to give this stuff up by any stretch of the imagination, because they want the gravy tan to keep going. And there's a wild hard card obviously, the straight orform moves which about a fifth of the world's oil goes through in peace time, twenty percent of it.
And we've seen what oil prices are doing. Now can you really stand in your home to see oil prices go higher and higher? And for most American families answers no. Now does he actually do it? He said, you know times Iran appears to be negotiating good faith, but it might end tonight with another extension. Does that safe him face? We have no idea. The threat is real. The deadline is tonight. And then Trump's certain his blink before, but
well he follows throwerbacks down again. This is a presidency defining moment in my opinion for him, because He's put so much into this, and you know, I'm sorry. I get as I've said in the past, and I've gotten caught some arrows for it. But I think, you know, if you suspect that Iran is close to creating weapons grade enrichment, then somebody's got to go in and take
them out. And it's not the UN's job to do this, but I think you can do that and set them back with military strikes for sure, and that would not involve boots on the ground. And we've done that before. And is that every few years you have to do this. It seems that way in Iran, and then they'll put the effort back into rebuilding stuff and it continues to build. You know, if you just attack the military institutions, this is another reason why the Iraqi people want to see
regime change there. If you continue to do that, if you started taking out their food and water and their ability to get around, now you've created another generation of enemies towards the United States. That's the problem with this, because if we continue with this, it's going to have to be boots on the God you blow the bridges and infrastructure up, at some point, you're going to have to go in there and rebuild it. How's that looking?
And you know, the core argument here is every single time we do something like this, not saying we're going to tonight AA at the club, but every time we do it, what winds up happening is we just kick the can down the road and create a problem for the next generation. And certainly a lot of voters, in particularly Trump voters, worry about the next generation and saving American with the Americans going what kind of country is our kids going to?
Hear?
It?
Okay, well, if we do it again, we've got a long track crcord of this. Look at it. This way back in the day we arm the moujah Hadeen and we got al Qada, we got nine to eleven, we toppled Saddam Hussein. What do we get we got isis we've been doing this for forty plus years and here we are. You just it's going to create more problems down the line. And I know you go, well, maybe it's not my problem right now, but again, if worried about our kids' grandkids, the unborn in the future of America,
that puts that in jeopardy. And I know the straight ofform. This is an international waterway, it's not an American one. And if we go and somehow control that, I'm not quite sure that they're going to let the United States, even if we spill blood and treasure to go in there and make it our straight and we are the one assessing tolls, I'm not quite sure that's going to
stand in the Arab communities, Arab countries anyway. And the other matter is is you know, we're what thirty eight trillion dollars in debt, So every time we launch a missile, every time we send a carrier group, every rescue operation involving one hundred and fifty aircraft, every plane shot down, that's money we don't have. So fiscal conservatives has gone out the window a long time ago. Off have said that, and that's why a lot of folks and you mun
call it, you know, neo cons whatever the hell that means. Look, fact, the matter is, there's no fiscal conservatism in this whole thing. And every time we see something like this too, a lot then point out that a government expanded a good powers always expanded at home too. If you're concerned about those things, So is it our war? Should there be a war. Launching missile strikes is a lot different than we're about to do tonight, if that is indeed the case.
If that is indeed the case, because as we've seen in the past, Donald Trump will say a lot of stuff on social He'll throw a lot out there, and then they say, well, we got a deal, or he'll go, well, I mean, this is the final ultimatum right now, We're going to give them another forty five days to get their act together. But I don't know, is that just stalling? Is that How does that play with the Iranians and in particular the Revolutionary Guard there, But they would just
laugh it off. And it's another shot at Trump and he does not like shots at, you know, questioning him or his ego. And that's what we're dealing with. That's
a reality tonight at eight o'clock. I just don't I think eight o'clock comes and maybe there's some bombing, but maybe not to the extent he's talking, and hopefully it is military infrastructure as they did overnight at carg Island, which is it's got some oil assets there, but largely a very very small island kind of fair enough, fairly far away too from the Straight of hor Moose, which is the choke point here at seven four nine, seven thousand. Let me get to Josh and Wilmington first up on
the show this morning. Josh Haw's life so far, so good, hanging in there. At least we're not in Iran. At least we're not in Iran.
What do you got, oh, I just wanted to make the point. You know, what he's proposing is obviously, you know, horrible and dishonorable. But one aspect I haven't heard any talk about is the saber rattling or the negotiating tactic could cause a widespread terrorist attack, and you know it would be completely you know, anticipated by most people besides the people that run in our country right now.
Now, Yeah, I mean there's always that threat. Every time we do something like this, there is a build up of that sentiment that would cause someone to go. And we saw lone wolf attacks, nothing really orchestrated, like nine to eleven. The lone wolfs are out there, and every time this happens, we see another lone wolf attack. I think it was where in Austin, Texas. We had one couple of them around this country, and certainly that's a concern.
My concern even bigger than that. It certainly lost life is bad, but we're waiting for a digital nine to eleven. I mean, they're what Iran has they're really really good at, is disrupting our digital nature. I mean, can you imagine if if they did what they did to Striker, which is the medical company, a medical supply company. They basically took all their data and wiped it out, didn't even hold it hostage, it wiped it out completely and stole it.
I don't know how they were recovering from that, but could you imagine if they did that to our government infrastructure or something much much bigger? That would Twitter goes down for ten minutes, people lose their mind. Can you imagine something like that that happening on a global or national scale?
Absolutely horrible, And when our intelligence agencies disagree with our politicians. I tend to trust the intelligence in the military, and in my opinion, that was their cosensus, is that the worst thing they could do was a terrorist attack.
Yep, And I feel like we're more vulnerable for that now.
It feels like we're repeating history, and history not that long ago, you know what I'm saying? I agree, yeah, and I don't know how you do this. Finally, Joshua, without boots on the ground. I mean, if you go and blow everything up, at some point, you're gonna have to go in and rebuild stuff. And he's talking about rebuilding it bigger and better. So well, first of all, where's that money coming from. Its money we don't have.
And secondly, isn't that boots on the ground and something that that pretty clearly when Trump was sent to Washington for the second time with his marching orders from the American people, it was pretty clear that the people supporting him, at least most of them anyways, said we're not going to engage in more foreign wars, and yet a year in here we are. That's a problem. That's a problem. Josh be well up in Wilmington at five point three seven four nine, seven eight hundred the Big One and
talk back on the iHeart Radio app. You wonder too, if they're looking at this going, well, you know, we've got this. The other eyes of the world are an Artemis two right now, and they're coming back. I mean, if the Iranians are talking about something disruptive, terror related, what about that space capsule that's floating around the moon
right now. Like, I don't know how hard that would be to crack that in, but that would be a very high profile message that Iranian hackers could send because all that stuff is vulnerable for sure, and they have an avenue to do it. I don't know how hard it is to get in that kind of infrastructure of
somebody eyes on it. And I'm talking about hardware digital hardware here, but you know, it does make you wonder what they are planning in a digital sense, because we're worried about terrorist attacks and dirty bombs and stuff like that. It's much easier and much more effective to do a digital attack, and we've seen them have their fingerprints on a lot of these things. That's what I lose sleepover.
I don't know how much stock I put in Trump bombiting them back to the Stone Age tonight, because it sounds like vintage Trump, just throwing stuff out there, see what sticks. Because he is very good at talking about both sides enough nobody, even those around him, I would have to think that they have no idea what the hell he's going to do next, or at least what he's going to say next. For we'd like to think that there's a plane here. But on a lot of cases, I look at it and I don't think he has
a plane. It's kind of winging it as he goes along, and you can wing stuff. I'm all for it, but in things like this, there's got to be a plan. I don't see much of a plan going on, and you know, push comes to shove. If I were a betting man, I would say that. And by the way, I think I finished fourth in my bra in the in the iHeart bracket, So clearly I'm not good at a good betting. At least I'm not at the bottom.
I suppose in the top five is pretty good. But if O are betting man, I would say you, there may be some bombs drop tonight. There may be some missiles launch to make it look like we're blowing stuff up. But you know, as far as going in and targeting desalization plants and power plants and things like that, that that seems like a bridge. So even Trump's probably just throwing that out there to see what the reaction is going to be. And the reaction, of course, there's a
lot of people pushing back, even conservatives, for that. It is rightly so, because now you're just making a problem for future generations to unpack. Because we've done this time and time again. We're not really good at state building. We can go blow stuff and then go, okay, we blew you up. We're out of here. Okay, I get that strategy. But the what we're doing here, if we do move forward with this, gonna lose a lot of support. I'll be honest with you. I think it's happening as
we speak right now. If you look at polling numbers and everything else in the price of oil is absolutely insane right now. That's going to get a lot worse if that is indeed what the plan is moving forward here. Speaking of plans moving forward, Jeff Cramering is here. He is a council member, and today they're going to vote on at least in the near future. I should say and ask him about this street takeover legislation. Here's the proposal from the City of Cincinnati to end this street
takeover nonsense, which it's kind of nonsensical. No one's been hurt yet, maybe some of the participants have. I don't haven't done that much research on it, quite honestly, I don't do I care If you're going to do stupid stuff, generally you win stupid prizes. As long as you're not hurting me, we're cool. But when you take over intersect the street corner, you got police resources they have to respond.
You've got people then speeding away, and that causes problems and maybe accidents, and who knows, someone you know, at the very least an ambulance or something could get held off been cause someone to die. We haven't seen that yet, but it's entirely possible. It's entirely possible. So following the Surgeon Street takeovers, they want an act strictor penalties, stricter penalties a thousand of two thousand dollars fine, and they want to impound the vehicle for up to six months
for the first defense. And this dovetails with Ohio House Bill fifty six that classifies this cap of driving as illegal racing drag racing basically in a felony to flu
to a fleet police. Is this enough to stop I don't know, out of state or out of town interlopers from coming here and doing what they did, like for example at Woodward where you had multiple dozens of arrests and vehicle seizures as well, but a six month vehicle on pound it Now in Louisville, I had a lawmaker on there last month to talk about what her proposal was, I believe for the second time, and she said, we want to take your car and crush it or sell it.
Now I've got a civil asset forfeiture beef with that because I don't like the government taking your stuff. I mean, if you have to take it, take it. But the problem is we've seen this with money. It's like I'm carrying some cash going on vacation and they think I'm jammed up in drugs when I'm not. They don't have to prove that. They just take the cash and keep it. So there's incentive for government to take your stuff, so
that I don't like that element of it. I don't like because they tend to abuse that, especially in an area like this that needs Hey, we need revenue. What are we gonna we gonn take your current sell it. They're talking about doing that at Louisville. I think that's a bad idea because now you're gonna have law enforcement just come in and sees your crap, and that's not good for anybody, not good for anybody, but clearly it's a serious problem. And how do we deal with that?
Cramerton coming up at ten oh seven. Ou out here on seven hundredule ol got time for a quick one REALI let me make it. Greg and Goshen here on the Scotts Slan Show. Greg, thanks for checking on what's happening.
Thanks Mary, just real quick. So Dashlee's bad enough to worry about that. There's a couple of other things that have to pass through the straits that are going to be pretty problematic here pretty quickly. Okay, if you're in the chip making business, you have to have helium. They have to remain in that environment. A lot of these people that make chips, one hundred percent of their helium comes through their two weeks of wat.
I remember there was a helium crisis not too long There was a helium crisis not too long ago as well, wasn't there? Does that recall?
I'm sorry, say I said, what.
Wasn't there a helium shortage not too long ago? So I recall it was like a big deal.
Yes, there it was, Okay, yeah, and this can still be a real shortage this time. What worries mean worse is twenty percent of the world's fertilizer comes through there. Not our fertilizer, but the world. Yep, this is fame and territory people.
Yeah, that affects us here in the United States. And farmers right now here in America are freaking out rightly so because they're seeing fertilize prices go up. Can can farmers absorb that?
No?
They pass on consumers. Consumer Can we here afford much higher food prices and much much higher oil prices? And that is that's the tipping point for us here in America. It is about our wallets in the end. And you're right, I didn't know about the helium, and certainly the fertilizer issue is very, very big, but anything passing through there.
Because the other element too is they have to get insurance on those ships, and the cost of insurance obviously is through the roof, because well, if you blow up one of these cargo ships, you're talking about billions of dollars with the not only oil in it too, but the with the the people on it and the ship itself. Those premiums are extremely high and they're aready trying. I think on top of that, I think the toll is like two million dollars or something like that. That's not
the insurance, that's the toll. So this is why gas costs so much money. You know, there's only so many ways you can move the oil too. As Anselaco said, and I kind of spit ball this the other day, going, you know, it seems to me like maybe we got to find a different way to go besides this really narrow, thirty mile wide passage where they can just you know, they can shut it down pretty easily. Is there an easier way to go on?
Now?
When it comes to the seas now, not so much. You still have to go through the strait. But is there a pipeline? Can you do? A canal? Can you do?
Any?
Answer? If you look at that peninsula right there, if you look at the strait itself, the choke point is, you know, the pinch point is it looks like, wow, we just put a pipeline. Why don't we put a pipeline or a you know, dig a tunnel or something underwater pipeline. Maybe you can't though, because it's the other thing. With the canal there would be so mountainous you just simply can't do that, whereas Panama, I mean, you're talking what in the nineteen hundreds when they did that. That's
much much different than what we're talking about here. Because there's so much mountain and terrain it'd be it's hard to get a pipeline or anything to go uphill. And then the digging, of course, you got to dig through mountains.
In order to do this.
I don't know if that's feasible or not. And you got to defend it's a whole nother thing. And then what if where they put the or if they decided to put the canal under the pipeline, that new government comes in, a radical government comes in, takes it over. So we're back to where we started again. So we got that to contend with. We'll all hulbreak lose tonight at eight o'clock. That's a big question. We'll continue to follow. A full update here in seconds on the Scotsland Show.
This is the Nation Station seven hundred WW Cincinnati.
I want to be an American.
It's flowing back on seven hundred w. O. I'm so following a surge in dangerous street takeovers, and I'd say they're pretty dangerous, mainly for the people participating, but nonetheless can't have that Cincinnati moving to an act strict or local stricter local penalties. We're talking like one to two
thousand dollars and five six months vehicle impoundment. And this is on the heels of Ohio House Bill fifty six that has codified stunt driving as illegal racing and makes it a felony to fleet police.
So on.
This will be voting on this soon as a council member. Jeff Kramerton on the Scotts Loan Showjeff, welcome back, Hey Ben.
Good to be here.
Yeah.
So before I get into the street racing thing, which is the big sexy topic, the less sexy topic, of course, the Cincinnati's income tax hike. After have pure Vaal mayor pure Val kind of punted on the timeline he wanted to propose in the first two monthster in a state of the city and now maybe three months with nothing, and I was saying, this may not happen at all this year, and this would be the earnings tax we're taught tax we're talking about in the city of Cincinnati.
And I think you said back in maybe earlier this month, that there's a plan to unveil maybe a proposal, the mayor saying it's not going to happen. Are you guys on the same page, because you're the chair of Budget and finance? So what a spring is? Spring? Is this spring? Next spring? Three springs from now? What are we talking about?
Yeah?
I am you know, no end likes to talk about tax increases, but there is in need. I think there's growing consensus that there is a need. There's never a good time to raise taxes or even talk about it, but the problem is getting worse and worse. So I have always been a strong advocate for going going, taking
this to the voters, letting them decide. You know, we talked about doing this in twenty twenty, which was a presidential year, and there's the thought that all of the message will get drowned down the presidential year and the year after that we were running, councils, running, the mayor's running, and we don't be talking about taxes when we're running. And now this year there's concerns about the economy. So
there's just never there's never a good time. The budget gets worse and worse, the streams get worse on basicity services, So I still hope that we can take this to the voters and make vccasional.
Let them decide, Well, the net profit tax and for businesses down something and they like, like by a third, the finance director said, so in December. And if the economic foundation is that shaky, why is an income tax the right move rather than deeper cuts? Or is this is this what a dest spire looks like, Jeff, I mean.
We've we've again this, this conversation continued now for twenty years since the Cincinnati alternative is when the economy is booming, our earning s tax is very high, and people say, you know, we don't we don't need it this year. So when and when is the right time the economy is shaky or earning stack is down, that's putting you know, more stream on basic city services. So when do you have this difficult conversation? Is the question?
Yeah, no one wants to have that. Of course, earnings tax, income tax. You know, you're taking more out of my way. And and still Cincinnati is low compared to all the other big size cities or medium sizes for that matter, in the state of Ohio. So we're still since I think I gets lost in the mix here, we're still not acting at the rate of other cities like Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, and others.
All of our pier cities in Ohio are two point five percent. We're at one point eight percent. To put that in real dollars, if the city was at two point five percent, which no one suggesting that, but if we were, there'd be an extra two hundred million dollars
a year. Uh So you understand that why there is a strain on basic city services when we're that far below, When our rate is that far below other cities, we could have a very modest increase still be far below any other highest cities and be able to provide more basic city services, which we know people want.
Futures commissioned. I believe there reports at point one five percent, which is like, as you said, a modest increase, would that bridge the gap?
Yeah, I mean that that's that's about the number we're talking about. Is a point one five? Is it point two? Those are numbers that have been discussed. If you're going to raise taxes, are going to be able to pay for the things you promise? You don't want to be raised taxes and not have it fixed up problem to That's where the conversation has been around those amount, all.
Right, Jeff cramerding this ties into quality of life issues. You know you did a residence survey, not too happy about potholes and other issues. We see this street takeover thing happened time to time. Of course, we saw what happened on opening day. Not a street take over unless you make it a human street takeover with gunshots being fired. But back in on New Year's Eve, I think last year you had traffic stop downtown at the Banks for street race. We had thirty nine people arrested, sixty five
cars and pounded at Woodward earlier last month. And so people see that and it's just another reason to go, oh, I'm not going to downtown Cincinnati or creating business down there, or maybe I want to move out. Those are real concerns for people, not saying it's happening in big numbers, but it's a quality of life issue. So the Woodward thing that's already illegal under existing law, what would this ordinance do that's being proposed incurring by the way, in
Ohio Bill fifty six, that isn't already allowed. What else do they make a lead about.
This, Well, we're gonna be discussing a lot option. So, I mean the one that I think is most interesting is impounding cars for up to six months, so you know, you're taking the vehicle that was you know, part of this crime. They're pounding you for six months. During the last street takeover, fifty three cars were towed. Uh you know, we did get some towing teas, but you know, extending
that to six months be much more of a deterrent. Obviously, cars are the focus of this, so there's a lot of conversation around that this morning in council.
Okay, so you keep the car for six months. What if it's you know, my kid borrowed the car and they're they're sitting there watching the street right saying we're participating, or maybe they took off because they got scared. I got to get to work the next morning. What then?
Yeah, I know, I mean this is this is a very serious crime. So I mean, you have to be responsible for your vehicle. H somebody's taking your car to you to to commit a crime of this magnitude, I think you have to be held responsible. I mean, this is you know, this is dangerous. We know what these street takeovers. A lot of people are coming from outside the city of Cincinnati, which raises a lot of issues.
And you know, I think people are frustrated. To me, this is breaking the lall for the for the sake of breaking the law. I mean me, I don't think going donuts is that fun. I think people are just intentially violating the wall just to get a high up for that, and that's very frustrating. And said something about the site.
Well, all all the stops. I'm gonna interrupt you there, Jeff Gramonting, did you just say doing donuts isn't fun?
Yeah? It worked for me a little bit when I was sixteen, but I sorted I've grown it. I would hope most of them.
Yeah, Jeff, donuts are so fun. I just it just depends where you're doing the donuts. Fair enough, Okay, very donuts our hell a lot of fun. But yeah, you should be shutting intersections down to do it. No, of course not. I know you're proposing the six month Vehicle Empowerment. This is kind of based on Louisville and the last month. The person who is uh is proposing this down there in the Commonwealth is Beverly Chester Burton she was on
my show a little while ago. Uh, and she's proposed as before this time around, you're talking thirty days in jail for the first one second one they take your car and they're gonna crush it or maybe even resell it. Now that concerns me when it comes to civil asset forfeiture because we've seen this with money, people carrying cash and going almost be drug money even though they can't
prove it. They keep the money anyway, saying with the cars, police and well in this case, places like CPD that need the money, if they can resell the car, that's incentive for them to seize your car, and they drop that threshold because it's about money. I got a problem with that as a libertarian going, I don't know if the government should be taking your assets or something like this, you know, maybe season it for six months or holding on to it, say we're gonna park it here. I
guess that makes sense. But now you've incentivize them taking your stuff. That I just agree with.
This morning, when we're I mean, we're gonna look at what Louisvill's done, we're talking about the accountants. We of course want to deter this make sure this crime does not happen, make sure these criminals do not come to Cincinnati, SINETI, and balancing that with the constitutional requirement to make sure that we can port with the law. So it's gonna be a conversation. You know, I've talked to my colleague. This is what's on the table. There has been some discussion,
you know, is this is this really gonna turn? Is this serious enough? Talking about our partners, the judges of the county, So finding the right balance to what will stop this, but still uh not be of the top and violate the constitution.
All right, So you seize the car for six months to hold on to it. I think that sends a pretty strong message myself, as it's not gonna be tolerated. You get your property back in six months, and I guess you're gonna have to hoof it wherever you're going. Now, there's some as I mentioned, you know, if it's a kid borrowing a parent's car, and is that for a first defense, Jeff or this would be from right from the jump?
Yeah, I think, I mean, I mean right now, it's a frozen motion. It's right from the jump. Of course, of people can always provide mitigating circumstances as part of the criminal process. But it's you know, you if you're of course, if you go to court and you're found not guilty, because you know your your your vehicle would get released. Uh So there's got to be safety mechanisms built in, and that'll be part of the conversation.
Are these people who are actively engaged in doing the donuts in the street takeover? What about people are sitting there, maybe videoing it or just sitting on their car because they're blocked at an intersection. Is this everybody who was caught in that intersection, just the participants that are caught on video.
This notion just applies to the participants. Spectating is already a crime according to Ohio state law. So if you're spectating, you're watching these criminacs there, you know it is a misdemeanor. It's a minor crime, but that is a crime, right now.
Okay, that way seems a little about what wiggle room there? It's like, hey, look, you know what I got blocked in? What am I going to do? I got my phone, I started recording. I guess I'm a participant, but I didn't know this was happening. I suppose there's some wiggle room there, but how often have they caught the participants in these.
Of the Sinday Police Department and did a excellent job with the last street takeover where there was I think forty arrests and fifty five vehicles impounded. So it was just a tremendous job. I mean, I you know, with people driving through the streets in this reckless manner, I mean it's I can't imagine how difficult it is to you know, block those cars and arrest them, get the drivers out all a safe manner without a dangerous office
from the public. Who you get that many cars? With a testament to the Cincinnati Police Department, Yeah.
You had thirty nine people arrested in sixty five cars I believe impounded. And what happened at Woodward the last month and I saw that went wow, that that sounds a really strong message. You also concerned with those who are out of town? How do you separate that?
Do you know?
I mean technical, what's out of town? Somebody from I don't know, a kid from Westchester or Loveland or I don't know, Hyde Park or something else. You know, how do you how do you determine what's the city of Cincinnati.
Well, I think, well, I mean ye have the last time we the people from as far as way is at least we had cars from as far away as New York and Texas. Which is why the empowerment part of this motion is important because at least some of the offenders last time had a relatively small bond of one thousand dollars. So if you're from out the state, are going to come and you know, pay your bond money, get your car and be off the road and never
come back. I think that's the possibility. So that's any reason the empowerment part of this is important.
These things target and these are all organized on social media. Obviously, with the no Kale location is going to be announced at the last minute. Does this legislation, Jeff kramerding, include any tools that target organizers or promoters or just address the participants. What about those people who may have organized and that may be the same person We don't know, But if you put this up on your social feed and we find out who you are, could you wind up getting in trouble for organizing?
Yeah, that goes into constitutional issues. Obviously, there's there's first amendment issues, But are you organizing a criminal act? I think that's part of the question. So the motion talks about the empowerment. The motion also talks about anything else from a policy perspective that city Council can do. So
are we talking about that with our law department? Of course, we want to hear from the police who were there again, who did a great job, to see what they're seeing, what they're hearing, and what can be done to prevent this and make sure it doesn't happen again?
All right?
Council Member Jeff kramerting on the show on seven hundred wwfellow A member Mark Jefferies, who's on the show often proposing an ordinance aimed at specifically discouraging out of time participants by having these penalties for street takeovers, talking vehicle impoundment for the first offense up to six months, saying that you know this has worked in Louisville, and that's even more streme. They're talking about actually destroying your car
and level, so don't do it there. Spectators are targeted, and we have House Bill fifty six that's being enhanced stunt driving definition there says stunt driving which is donuts, burnout, shrifting wheelies, racing the whole thing. It's illegal, fallony fleeing. Now it's now fell into wilf found need of wilfle laid police if you're participating in a street takeover, and accountability for participants all in there as well, and you
could see how Cincinnati's builds off of the existing Ohio law. Finally, Jeff Chrimer thing thirty nine people arrested back last month in the street takeover roundup, What happened to their cases? What are the judges order? What were the decisions?
Yeah, I mean some of the bonds were very low from my opinion, especially with the nature of the crime and the transient nature of many people were out of town. So you know, I think we're talking about how to deter this and doe more penalties on the places as part of it, and certainly tracking all these crimes and developing a better partnership with our with our county judges. Important.
We've talked a lot and then productive conversations about data when it comes to any crime, what is working, what isn't effective be turned and how the city can we do that.
When we.
Had the problems over last summer. The city actually put up money with it, with our judges saying, you know, you know we need data. We help you pay for get to from someplace that we get better data. So I think that there is a need there across the board, and it's something we continue to work on and need to work on.
Are the judges hands tied? Is that the problem? You can only punish these folks so much? And does this lawlegislation give it more teeth than you know? Taking our car away of us is a big one. But I guess what I'm saying is we know, Jeff, that the laws out there where our judges are not tough on recidivism, which means repeat criminals, especially the violent felony types. It just they will released on their own recognizance and by the time they cross the threshold from from the court
to the street, they're committing crimes all over again. And judges are just too damn lax. Is that part of the problem with this.
I think that the problem is if you look at it in isolation, the penalty might not match the crime. I whan we were joking about donuts that if you say, oh, a person was in doing donuts at three o'clock in a school park. You know, you're, okay, that's not that's not the worst crime. But then if you look at this in totality, what's going on in one hundred people driving recklessly down the highway. I think we had unwull whacked in an organized manner. That becomes a much more serious.
That's the reason that we need to increase the penalty. That's the reason these takeovers are so dangerous.
Yeah, but are we going to have judges to go, well, you know what, I think it's punishing these poor young victims even though they're engaged in crime here, and I'm just not We're not going to seize their car. We're just going to let them out. I mean, you can make all the laws you want. If the judges aren't doing their part, it's pretty worthless, isn't it.
Yeah. No, I think that I think that we do from the city's perspective, we do need data, We do need tracking. That data should be available to public and may available to the citizens. And if there's a problem, I a judge is not meeting community expectations, they should be voted out. And I think that that data, in that tracking is part of that all right.
He is a council member, Jeff kramerting on the Scott's loan. She'll be voting on this street tagover issue. And hopefully that's all the information you need to Maybe not, because I know a lot of my listeners are out there doing the street takeovers. I gonna be honest with you. I disagree with a lot of my listeners are street tag over people. I'm sure. Hey, Jeff all the best man. Thanks for jumping on the shows.
Mary.
I appreciate you always, pleasure take care.
There you go.
We got a news update coming in just minutes here on the Big one seven hundred WLW, and we'll follow what's happening, of course in Iran right now. And the countdown is out, the countdown because the doomsday clock is running here. If we believe for his word what Trump said at eight o'clock tonight, the big boom goes off and we wipe the whole country out. We'll see what that looks like. If indeed that's what happens. We don't
know at this point. The only thing I've concerned about it, first of all, judges not doing what they're supposed to do. The second thing of course, is civiliss at forfeiture, which I have a problem with because we've seen jurisdictions that have been given the tools going, hey, we got to stop the flow of drugs. Okay, well see you can seize money now. Great, So now they're just seizing people's money even though they can't prove its side to drugs, and they just get to keep it. And that happens
at CBG, it happens all over the place. I just hope that this doesn't become that as the city looks for new revenue. Maybe now we'll take your car and sell it. That could be coming next, although with this version of it that's not the case for sure. So it's just a lefty eye sloan here. This is seven hundred w weld. Scott's flown here seven hundred WLW welcome to and keep you updated all day long on what is about to happen or the threat thereof to Iran
President Trump. I guess I'm looking at Fox News right now. So he spoke to Brett Bayer ahead of the eight pm deadline and said, no, this is absolutely happening sometime at eight or thereafter. A relative to blowing the the
snot out of Iran. It makes you wonder, though, if you set them back to the stone ages, as he continues to say, it's gonna happen, no power grid, no bridges, you wonder the Iranian retaliation is gonna be pretty fear But what also happens with the people we need in that country to be our allies, kind of like within right, the pushback against the totalitarian regime that's there. We're really bad at this stuff, so keep saying against stressed enough
we going away. Okay, great, now you just the people you need to help rebuild and make it a more democratic state. Is not going to happen because now you've turned the support that the United States had against it. So I don't know, we'll find we'll see what happens. Again, it's Trump, So your guess is as good as anybody's. My guess is as good as anyone's too. On what is going to happen. We'll see, So we'll keep you updated on this again. Come up at eleven oh seven.
Got a Middle Eastern expert about this and what this all looks like at eleven oh seven is the big story, The big story. Just got an email from I'll leave the name out said to live in Claremont, my employer and work location. There's a a Lunking airport. My wage is deducted from income taxes by the federal, state and city of Cincinnati. I can vote in or against the
leadership for federal and state, but not regarding Cincinnati. How many business owners, how many employees work within the city limits and pay the city income tax to which you were just talking to Jeff crimerting about, and don't have a say as to who spends that kind of income. I prefer to pay the taxes and have a say. But in Louin, not having a say accept the income tax exception integgravating. Yeah, I get it, and I think I know what you're getting at. Back to the phrase
that we learned in grade school, taxation without representation. So you're paying a tax, but you have no say in how that tax is spent. Now, I do know top of my head that courts have consistently ruled that they don't recognize that if a local municipality does something like this where the payroll tax gets kicked in or you pay taxes, you're you know, you're working in Cincinnati, you're paying Cincinnati taxes, payroll taxes, but you have no say
and how those moneys are spent? Is that technically the definition of taxation without representation? The courts so far are have ruled that it isn't simply because you know, I get the tax burden falls on people who don't have a vote for the council setting the rate. There's an accountability gap there. But they have said that, well, it's different because you choose to work there. You could always you could always leave your job and go work somewhere
else if you don't like it. And I think courts have kind of upheld that commuter not or asident peril tax is constitutional because you use city infrastructure. So Rhodes police fire is the argument, and you have indirect representation. You know, you can lobby, you can advocate, you can choose to not work there, and if it's income earned within the city. The big one is that courts treat that as a legitimate basis for taxation. But you know,
I kind of agree with you. I don't have a say, and how shouldn't I have a say in how that money is being spent? I think it's irresponsible because in this case, the revenue is declining, so you're going to raise the tax rates up again. Now it's not anywhere near what other cities have, but I think that's that's a really strong argument. You know, the early grievances on there were that the crown, that the British Crown taxed columnists. Us are predecessors who had no vote in parliament. So
we had, you know, the stamp tax. We had the Boston Tea Party. It was all related to that, saying what, I'm paying tax on all this stuff stamps, so any document had to have a government stamma to pay that. I had to pay the freight on t a t tax and they said, okay, this is stuff, throw the tea overboard rather than pay the tax on it. That's essentially what they did, and saying screw you guys. We're gonna do our own thing. And here we are here, we are screwed it up. But yeah, I totally get
that thing. But I got to pay this tax, but I don't have a say in it. And they took about, you know, you still use the roads used to.
I don't know.
I got that. So I work in we're in Madeira and years ago because you know, Willie lives here, and so he wanted to make sure that everyone paid quote unquote their fair share. So he's kind of like a liberal when it comes to lining his own pockets. And they had passed an income tax here because the anythink it was fair that those of us who lived elsewhere we're driving the roads, use their fire and police services and not have to pay for that. Yet we have
no say in the government. Well, the people that use the most city services, you know, ambulances for example, that's a big one, tend to be the people who live here. You know police, sure, but police travel all over the place, it's pretty consistent. But you know, fire and rescue, that's a different thing entirely. That tends to be more residents than in the businesses. Just by the nature of it aren't just kind of funny. It's like anything in America. You know, I want stuff and you should have to
pay for it. There's nothing different going on here, But I tend to agree with it with the email are there that Yeah, wait, I got to pay more in taxes. I don't get to say how this is spent at the problem of course, then that just makes our tax structure even more complex if they were to take that out there, because then some of you got to pay for it. It's got to go back together.
City.
I don't know how we're working all this, And this is why the tax go to so damn complicated. More towards the pay as you go tax. It seems to me to be the way to go here. What else do we have going on this morning?
Oh?
I wanted to get in this. This is interesting. This happened in Green Township. This guy, Jarvis Goodfrey, was in court yesterday. This is a dude who shot at teenagers because they were ding dong ditching. They were knocked on his door. They ran to the car, took off, They went down the street, came back around, and by the time they pulled turned around, he had shot at them, struck the car, believing the trunk, and a couple of
houses there on Starview Avenue. And he, for his troubles, is now in custody, or maybe he's out on bond. I'm not quite sure how they do this. We just had this story happen overnight in Indianapolis where a city council person there found thirteen bulletholes in his front door. Now he is a single dad and the district in which he represents is debating has come up and said, you know what, we want data centers here. And so what happened was somebody shot thirteen rounds at his front door.
After midnight. He and his son woke up to the black asked a gunfire. He said, just a few hours before, his son, his eight year old, was sitting at the dining room table playing with his legos, and that's where the rounds went through. And on the front doorstep and a zipped closed zip lock bag as a doorstep reading no data centers. And so he was one of the guys that could in his district. He backed the project and said, look, we're going to get two and a
half million dollars in an investment. We could get up to twenty million dollars more. We got construction jobs, long term tax revenue. We think we need this in the district, and so we voted for it. In for his trouble at thirteen shots fired through his front door, and of course everyone rushing to condemn this, from the people who are against the data center in the first place, to
both Republican and Democrat council caucuses and everyone's condemning. So when something like this happens, they condemned, they condemn, they condemn, And I don't think in this case. You know, I tied it to Dravis Goodfree here Godfree in Green Township. So not just the data center issue, but in both those cases you got a guy who's I mean, let's face it, we live in an age now with fear
and a lot of this has created ourselves. For mister Godfrey, I'm sure he's concerned about the West Side, He's concerned about what's happening in his neighborhood. He sees all this, you know, look at the street takeovers, which isn't inherently dangerous, but it gives a perception that there's crime all over the place, that now there's there's somebody going to kick his door, and it's going to be it's going to be another Savannah Guthrie's mom, you know, Nancy Guthrie type
of situation. You don't know now. I think when you run outside and the car that's driving away, you put a couple of rounds into it, that is definitely a felony. You know, someone firing, someone kicking your door, and if you shoot through that door. It's going to be awfully tough to convince a jerry that you thought you know someone's coming through. And now I think there are some members of jury would see that going well. It could be a home invasion or whatever, as opposed to just
a dumb prank. But we are all on the razor's edge these days, 't know if you notice that for me, you everybody, and whether it's this or what happened in Indianapolis is a little bit different in that the data center is a it's a pressure cooker issue. But I think what drives this whole thing where you had, you know, had so many politicians now and it's accelerated where there's
school board members, election workers, health officials. Now you've got city council people and others of Supreme Court justices who are being targeted for national scale grievances. I think that's the thing that social media is part of this, where it compresses information and that you think things are a lot more threatening than they are, and certain the juries
out in data centers. We know we weorrery about the environment, electricity and things like that, but these things often have a tendency to play themselves out and we think, you know, hey, daddy, I don't want a data center. Most people, if you ask them what is in the data center, I'm not quite sure, but they know they're against it. They don't want it in their neighborhood. And certainly it goes to show you that something is made basic, if not life changing.
But a data center can reach that same favorite pitch. Online is a big cultural issue. So you got locala think about, You've got local Facebook groups, you've got neighborhood apps, you've got all these things. Turned the zoning dispute into an existential threat in less than seventy two hours. So if somebody's already in the edge, they're already pissed off. You put this on top. It's too much to go and shoot somebody's door out, And it's just kind of
it's also a normalization problem. And every time we get a brick through a window, or a voicemail or thirteen round shot through a front door, or somebody pounding on your door in the middle of the night is a prank that you take as a home invasion. This is what winds up happening.
Now.
Of course, those on the left, the progressives, will tell you yeah, this would be a problem if you just got rid of all the guns. But I'll point out that ninety point nine point ninety nine percent of gun owners don't do this stuff. So we got another knucklehead out there that makes it hard for the overwhelming almost all of the rest of us who have guns to use them responsibly and enjoy their company, so to speak. And that's where things stand today. Those two stories not related,
but in some ways they are. And this has to do more with our parent oi on us looking at our shoulders that we really don't have a we tend to fabricate out and said this that the problem is that the human I think the human condition, we need some sort of strife, We need some sort of angst, We need some something to worry about, or something to worry about. We need worry. That's what drives a news cycle.
I mean here on this station and others u TV for example, but streaming it's all about the drama.
You know.
We live in times now where it's so good. And I'll say that, yes, it's so good that some of the most popular shows on television or on streaming, I should say, are what reality shows? What are reality shows? They just make up drama. It's nothing but drama. What are the Housewives shows? It's drama, rich women with drama. What's a show like I don't know. The cop shows, the CBS, NBC, ABC, all the Runner, you know, it's like csiol of what they're cop shows because we like strife,
we like the Fire Country and the Shareff Country. All these shows it's all dealing with well, we're fabricating violence because in our world now it looks like it's really really bad. But if you look through the history of the world, we live in the safest times ever. Even yes, even in the mean streets of Cincinnati. You know, if you go back to your door getting shot in or uh you know in this case a city solicitor getting a store shot in, or some kids dignit, you know,
knocking on the door and getting shot. You know, people used to sell agreemances not long ago by pulling I got and shoot each other. You know, it wasn't long ago where you could treat a loved one. Your wife, for example, didn't have many rights. And that was in America, and that wasn't really in his in terms of history, not really that long ago. And so if you see what passed for I guess acceptable behavior in public, and you talk about how crass it is today. It's kind
of different though. You know, the the the physical abuse of tolerating you beating your wife was legal, punishing your corporal punished with kids, and kids were treated as they weren't treated as children in these precious snowflakes. They were treated as cheap labor. You know, if I had a farm, which we're a grarian, not that long ago, I need I needed labor, and the best way to create labor as to what was to have unprotected sex guaranteeing that
I would cheap, free labor on my farm. And that is you know ten my my mother in law, I think they're eleven or twelve or thirteen kids in their family. Good Catholic families, they said, but they had need of the labor. So we look at kids now much much differently we did just a couple generations ago, don't we.
And I think for that very reason that's why we stand is all right, things are much better now, and whether you want to believe that or not, in some ways they're were saying now, social media certainly can be a pain in the butt, but when you talk about just the safety. You know, we don't have to worry about a poisoned water supply. It wasn't that long ago that we did.
Or food.
Food is pretty plentiful, and now to the point where the biggest thing we do is we overeat. You know, we talk about food deserts and stuff where poor pok folks have to go to a convenience store and get a twinkie as opposed to some I know, some lettuce or some spinach. The food is cheap and it's plentiful. We're killing ourselves with a knife and fork. The problems that we suffer from today are much different than we did so a generation or simply a two or three
or four ago. And that's a lot of the stuff that's surviving. So dr We need that drama, We need that element, and I think that comes from are I don't know, it's part of our DNA as human beings that you know, we literally had to fight off the wolves. You know, I've got I got a gun, I got a musket. I'm not worried about some joker online. I'm worried about a bear eating my family when we go out to get water out of the well, I'm worried about that.
That's that's a.
Real that's real worry. Or a famine. You know, crops are put in and we have a really bad winter. Well, we don't eat, we starve, we die. Yeah, that's real hand and mouth kind of living. That happened in the course of the two hundred and fifty years of our country, for sure. So a lot safer today than we were yesterday. It doesn't seem that way because we had this thing in our hand called a phone that feeds us a steady dyet based on algorithms of doom and gloom, and we,
you know, we continue to digest that as entertainment. Now to fill that void we need as human beings that we need some sort of strife in our life. The real strife we have not too bad. And you going, wow, it's luney. You're full of it because you know you're a you know, I'm worried about my next paycheck. Now, those are those are real worries. But today we even despite what you want to believe about Republicans, we still have a pretty good safety net in this country in
some areas. Certainly it does need to get better. Yeah, absolutely, but you know, buy and large. You know, you don't drive down the street and see cardboard shacks, people living in cardboard boxes, generally whole communities as you did maybe during the Great Depression. It's just simply not acceptable. Hoboes, where did they go?
And that was?
You know they've been around. You do have homeless people, but you know, the hoboes are looked at as kind of lovable people. Now we want to save them all, whether they want to save themselves or not. In a consimerable number of homeless people actually say lesson, I don't want to be housed. I might have a drug problem, sure, but I don't want to be around other people and that may meddle the disorders whatever you have it. But it used to be romanticized. It's not today. I guess
it's my point. So there you go. We got a news update coming up in just minutes here on seven hundred WW. We are in seven hundred WW Armageddon. Watch right now, because tonight a daight o'clock you may want to rethink buying a globe. So if you're going to physically buy a globe, you may want to rethink that the big globe, big globe is very worried right now.
Anyone have a globe anymore? It'd be easier for Google and Apple to redo the maps if we wipe a ran off the face of the earth tonight at eight o'clock. But I'm worried about the big globe. And if you still have a folding map, my got somebody. I'll call Triple A. What are they doing over there? I gotta be really concerned about this whole thing. Will it be wiped out tonight at eight o'clock we'll continue the countdown here on the Nation station seven hundred WW Cincinnati.
Don't want to be an American idiot?
All right?
You heard the president at eight o'clock tonight, all hell is going to break loose? Is it over for a ran? He says, if you believe in his word, that's a done deal. But we've seen this before, We've heard the rhetoric in the last minutes. So maybe the twenty third hour, all of a sudden we start backing off a little bit. But what's at play here? We got the forty eight hour ultimatum, and now eight o'clock tonight is the deadline? Is at it? Right here?
Is it all over?
As we know it are the worst fears about to become realized. He is a and by the way, we're at what nine hours now before or the map of the Middle East changes, if indeed that is true at eight o'clock tonight on that is Abdullah Hayak. He is a Middle East analyst at a DC specializing in regional security US foreign policy. Welcome back, Abdullah, good morning.
Thank you for having me.
Huh, So we hit about thirteen. Well, I want to get to the game inside. But right now, if you're too I don't know if you're too handicapped this Abdullah scale of one to ten, ten being total armageddon. Where do things stand at eight o'clock tonight? What do you think occurs?
Well?
I doubt that the Iranians are going to oblige to the demands of the president.
This war has been going for long enough to determine that.
But I don't think that the president is going to retaliate after the deadline either. As you've mentioned before, this is not the first time he sets forth the deadline, and I just don't know where the progress of the war is going to go. There hasn't been a clearly stated objective to define this war. There hasn't been any you know, determined factor in the war. It's it's all. It's a quagmire. So it's really hard to tell, and you know there there's no calculation for it.
Well, the other thing too, If we go in there and lay the waste the infrastructure, that means the bridges, that means the roads, that means the power plants, it means the desalization stations, all those things, don't we lose what we need most, and that is the the Iranian people to be on our side. We've seen this in the past where we go in Okay, regime change, that's great, and the people are turned worse than they were with
the with the regime before them. And we want people to be on our side, and I believe they are, including our allies there in the Middle East. If we go and do this, what happens to that relationship.
Well, certainly that will happen, because that's the lifeline of any society.
You know, those are the basic necessities at a society.
But the Iranian retaliation, in turn, we'll target those same infrastructure in the Middle East US allies, and that in turn will affect the US relationship that the US has with the Arab allies, especially in the Gulf. So it's definitely going to be a setback for US Middle Eastern relations.
Yeah, and we've hit something like thirteen thousand targets in five weeks. At what point does that campaign become counterproductive? On that point? Are we there yet?
That's the thing.
We haven't hit the things that hurt the regime most. If we keep hitting the launchers and the factories and military infrastructure, that's counterproductive because the Onions can just regroup in a few months and a few years and reproduce and you know, remanufacture everything they've had so far.
And it's it's fine because the.
Technology is there, the leadership is there, the objective is still there.
It's just difficult.
Yeah.
The other thing too is Iran controls the straight up our moose oil as you know now one fourteen, So oh, in that regard, it feels like Iran has the economic leverage right now.
Oh, definitely, definitely not.
And it's important to remember Scott that not only do they have leverage over the Strait of Hormos, which is all for the record forty percent of global shipping going through there, they also have leverage over another strait, which is to the west of the Strait of Hormos called the Babyl Mendev Strait, which is we're currently controlled by the Houthis in Yemen, and if they go ahead and close that, we're looking at the major global energy and
shipping crisis that's going to affect every corner of the world.
The problem, of course, is how the hell they get the oil out of the Middle East without Iran and escase the Hoo'sy's being in play, and there's no work aound for that. You know, we talked about pipelines, talking about canals and other ways to get that oil out of there. There's just there is no way because there's so much of it, and the easiest way is through that very narrow thirty mile our chow point called the Strait of Removes.
Yeah, yeah, that's that's the thing.
There's already you know, talks and reports and rumors that they're thinking of trying to make, you know, a project or a pipeline or whatever. But the bottom line is, you know, the main getaway for the oil to get out of the region is the Strait of Hormoves and unless you find the deal to you know, get that into play. There's not going to be an American victory in this war. That's just plain and simple, all right.
So negotiations a llegible and going on. Pakistan is broken in these talks. They're also a nuclear state with complex ties to both sides, and you got a factor what's their agenda here? And not only that, are these talks actually happening because the Iranians say no, Trump says yes, Pakistan's in the middle, and who knows where their interests lie.
Well, the Pakistanis are very interesting in this and there's a benefit for both sides.
Now.
The Pakistanis are getting back in the game with the US because they want to reprimand their relationship with the US, especially in light of tensions with India, because they see that the Indian American relationship is getting stronger.
They want to catch up the Americans.
They want to pull the Pakistanis back in because they don't want the Pakistanis to be full in bed with China, because they've been in bed with China for the past few years on a very strong level.
So there's a benefit on both sides.
When it comes up Dullah to Trump claiming that we've achieved regime change. I keep seeing that headline all morning today that they're dealing they're smarter, thus less radical leadership in Iran? Is that true? And from a security standpoint, does it change the behavior here on the part of Iran.
Well, you know, to his perspective, yeah, there has been regime change because they've killed the whole leadership apparatus. We can say that, but the regime in its essence still remains. Now, is it going to be less radical? Absolutely not. If one thing's taught been taught in the Middle East, that is that when one leader is assassinated, when one, you know, regime is taken out, and still the essence of the regime is there, the successor is always going to be
more radical. There are successor is always going to be more determined to get back at the US or Israel or whoever. So I don't think we're going to see, you know, an Iranian supreme leader right now calling for peace between himself and the Iran and the Israel or the US. Want to see a much more determined leader who wants to accelerate the nuclear program.
Especially especially Abdullah, when that person is the son of the guy he just killed exactly exactly.
That's even all the more reason.
It does make a lot of sense.
Right now.
Abdullah Hyak is here. He is a Middle East analyst, regional security expert in US foreign policy expert. Down what the what's going to happen tonight at eight o'clock? God only knows only Trump. I don't know if Trump knows at this point. I think he's waiting to see what happens if someone capitulates, is someone links what do you
think would be enough? Because because the president is about getting some cover here, what moves could I ran make in the next roughly nine hours here, less than nine hours now, I doullah that would satisfy him and go, okay, fine, we'll not do what we're said we're going to do at eight o'clock tonight. We'll give you, I don't know, a fifteen thirty forty five day break until you come up to speed here. But what could be given up by the Iranians that will allow us to wiggle out of the situation.
It's it's very hard to tell you. The President's mind has been all over the place. It's it's really difficult. But I would say he would be able to deliver a victory by saying, oh, I opened the strait of home. Was I saved global shipping? I saved the oil business,
and that would be in his favor. But another thing would be you know that Iran has subjugated to the demands of the US in terms of, you know, limiting itsmissal or drone program, stop supporting the proxies, and you know, set back in its still clear program, which is all, by the way, very unlikely.
Is Iram going to give that territory up?
Though?
What can they give up and save face?
Well, in any country is mentality. Nobody gives up anything, you know, especially the Iranians. We're forgetting a main factory that we're thinking that these guys are Western based player. These guys are from the East. They don't surrender like they do in World War One World War two. These guys they either fight to the victory or they die. That's the Eastern mentality. So they're not going to go ahead and wait to be on a desk to sign
an agreement with world leaders. They're going to want to take it out in the battlefield.
Now fight for thousands of years. This is we're only two hundred and fifty years old. They've been doing this for thousands of years.
Exactly, and I think that's the biggest miscalculation we had.
And it seems like we repeat a lot of those mistakes. Abdullah all right, so Trump floated, Okay, we're going to control the straight of our most you just kind of talked about that and charge tolls.
Is that even.
Feasible at this point without without boots on the ground there, How all of a sudden we're the one leving the tolls.
How does that?
How does that even ratic? Are logical?
I guess well it's not, because you know, the even the Iranians, they don't have boots on the ground. What happens is that the Iranians control a set of islands in the Strait, and they have their launchers there and they can set their minds from there, and.
Whatever ship they don't like, they just went it.
But the thing with the US is we don't have the enough capabilities to go ahead and cap those IRGC launching sites and to deter any interception of a mine or whatever, because it's so intricate and.
So detailed, you just can't find them.
So what the US is probably going to do is it's going to storm with you know, special operations, Navy Seals, Delta Force, in my opinion, to go in and take a few of these islands that are really you know, the tip of the spear for the Audians in this strategy and take control of them and then they'll set the toll.
It'll be a quick, fast operation.
But you know, there's no side that that's being cooked other than the fact that there's more US troops and assets and equipment being repositioned to the region.
He's a Middle East analyst specializing in regional security and US foreign policies based out of DC. It's Abdulla Hyak on Scott's Loan Show this morning. I'm seven hundred wow inside nine hours now till Trump's ultimatum of basically wiping out an entire civilization. Was his last post on True Social last night. Oil Now, I believe it above one sixteen to a barrel of price of oil continues to go up. One of the things we attacked overnight to add to this is something called carg Island, which is
it's kind of farther up from the Strait itself. It's part of it, but it's an important military and the oil installation there. What were the significance of that target.
Well, that target is you know, both a gold mine and a land mine.
Let's say harg Island is accounting for about ninety percent of all Iranian exports. It is, you know, the logistical hub for Iranian shipping. But yet again it's very well armed, it's very well fortified, and you know, it's a very big center of Iranian pride. If we're going to go ahead and take it, it has nothing to do with opening the Strait of Hormones because as you mentioned, it's about three hundred miles away from the Strait of Hormones. So what it's going to be is about crippling the
Iranian economy. It's about choke holding the Iranians by the throat and you know, suffocating them economically and financing. So is it going to be possible that they we're going to do it. I think possibly yes, because unless they opened the Strait, which is a major concern for us, We're gonna go ahead and you know, take out the Harg Island for them because that's a mere conservative because that's one of the last lifelines they have.
How much does that hurt their economy. They'll consider the fact that the Chinese are still getting their oil from Iran.
Well, the Chinese, true, they get their oil from Iran, but like Iranian oil only accounts for like about ten to fifteen percent of all Chinese oil leads, whereas the Iranians, they're oil experts, exports, it's all forty five percent going to.
China. So it's got to hurt Iran more than it's got to hurt China because China doesn't really depend that much on them.
The Iranians, however, you know, they they they're going to realize that this is despite that low percentage of dependency by the Chinese on their oil, it's still got to set back relations with Asia as a whole because it
doesn't just go to China. It goes to India, it goes to Korea, it goes to you know, the Southeast Asia countries a few So it's going to affect global economy and that's going to see Iran really isn't a reliable partner to deal business with because they're willing to, you know, put their own lives on the line and the lives of their own people and not depend the older shipping and all that, so why should they deal business with this?
So it's going to be a setback for Iran, and I don't know what the endgame is.
What role is there still for our allies here. Obviously most of the rest of that region, the Middle East doesn't want this going on, doesn't want a Ran doing what they're doing, certainly, and then of course us being a war with them. They want to sit back and continue to make their money unabated. And it seems like We've got a tremendous amount of goodwill built up in the Middle East. It would that be squandered if we did with Trump threatened snide at eight o'clock.
Well, if the strike does proceed and the retaliation against the Allies and the region comes into reality, as I expect it would, yeah, it would affect the relationship with the guilt because the Golf are just sitting there and they haven't participated in this war what not one bit, and they're seeing that there's drones and missiles flying more
into them than it is flying into Israel. For the record, since the war started, eighty seven percent of all Iranian launches have been targeted at the Gulf versus thirteen to Israel. So they're not gonna want to see this accelerate even more because they're not even in the war yet, and they know that even if they are forced into the war, the level of retaliation and launches against them are going
to be even more higher. And they're going to see that the US really doesn't care about them because it's willing to put them in the line of fire for its own objective without really caring for us.
Well, we Sawdbai under siege from drones, right, and that's part of that psychological warfare operation. You know, you're not wiping out entire buildings or entire complexes, but hell, if you can hit Dubai, you can hit pretty much anything else there.
Yeah, and Devi is getting it hit hard the most.
You know, device is getting one over a one billion dollar bill per day, Scott. They have hotel cancelations, flight cancelations, expats are leaving, rent isn't being paid, all the laborers are quitting their jobs. It's it's an economic training basically, and that's for the whole golf right now. So for for the Marathis in particular, which are getting hit hard
the most. I think the Iranians want to go ahead and break the legend of the United albumriates that you know that it's a safe haven, that it's an investment haven, that you know expats can.
Go ahead and have a new life.
They're just jealous because right across the Gulf, the Golf have managed to transform a golf story into a success story, right, and they hate it that they've managed to do it successfully and they and they themselves, the Iranians failed much better, just you know, getting back at.
Right much model level. That's why the Live Golf took They they you know, they've said a whale careful lose money for the next fifty years. We want to have that entertainment presence. We want to be an influencer in that regard with golf of all things. And this sets that whole thing back is. Look, it's very violent to live over there, to be over there anyway, and this is why all the tourist money's pulling out and other
things as well. So as a solution, there are the other Gulf states, the ones that can figure out what to do between now at eight o'clock.
No, no, the golf, the Golf's got to hold it out entirely.
They know that the risks of interfering in the war are just tremendous given the fact that they're getting a hit without being in the war.
So they're not going to risk it more.
They're not going to risk more volleys of drones and missiles even more than what it is like now. What they're probably gonna do is they've got to pressure the US, you know, to really finish the job quickly and that they can go all go home.
That's probably what's gonna happen.
I asked, most people are handicapped this. The thing is, no one knows except maybe President Trump. What's going to happen at eight o'clock tonight, if anything, He's Abdulla Hyaki is based in the DC and Jones to show this morning on the Big Ones one hundred WW is our Middle East analysts and he specializes in regional security, US foreign policy. We'll see what happens tonight after eight o'clock. Abdullah, all the best. We'll check in again soon, thank you.
I look forward to our next conversation.
All the best. We got to get a news update and we'll reset this entire topic, of course, and then how this is influencing the markets of course not good today. I think the dow S and p et cetera. I saw they were off like three three point fifty something like that. It's going to get worse for it. It's better He puts all this in the financial perspective. Next on the show on seven hundred.
WLW time to talk about money, how to make it, how to keep it, and how to keep others off your stash. This is all worth advice with Andy Shaeffer.
Well, today's a big day, big day for everyone here in the world because eight o'clock tonight it's go time, says President Trump. Four hours at bombing. So eight to midnight is the slot he's got it scheduled. By the way, get a white ran off the face of the earth, or so, he says Andy Shaeffer. To put this in financial perspective, I'm sure the markets you act positively to that.
What they I you know, the I may buy I move some positions to Google because you know it's gonna big Globe is really going to take the hit here, the Globe companies and map makers, the old school map makers out there. It's going to be troubling if Iran gets wiped off the face of the Earth, Google Maps, get a little bit of code there, no problem. But the Globe Company, the big globe manufacturers, you know that big one you got in your office there, Andy, Now
you're going to have to get a new globe. What about that?
Well, when I was little, I had this globe from my grandmother that actually had the imperialist countries in Africa, wow, years ago. And so I've always been a big fan of maps. But you know, there's a there's a lot of fear right now from investors to try to decipher, you know, what's going to happen. You know, within the next handful of hours. Today, you know, essentially three ports are is that we struck Carga Island uh in Iran, which is just off the West Bank in the Persian
Gulf of Iran. And the the interesting thing about Cargo Island is ninety percent of their crude oil flows through that. Now, we hit military targets there last month, and it left the crude infrastructure intact.
Now, if we were to seize.
The loading terminals, the pipelines, the storage tanks, and carg that would suggest a significant escalation in the conflict. Furthermore, Donald Trump also said today that Hey, eight o'clock tonight, all hell's breaking loose.
So let me jump in there. So eight o'clock tonight, let's say he goes, he goes all hell, he's gonna leash hell right, like the movie says, I don't know if I totally buy it, because it's Trump and he's waffled on this for so long. We don't know what the guy's thinking. And it seems like it's one minute night. So let's say, Okay, that's it. Fine, you're not gonna show me up, I'll show you. Takes out all the infrastructure, the bridge is, desalination plants, all the stuff we talked about.
What happens market wise, well, I think that we.
Could probably see a significant decline because that would even impact the transport of oil even more. And not only that, think about the costs that would go into rebuilding Iran. It's likely that we would have a big stake in that rebuilding, and it could take thirty to fifty years to get that infrastructure back to speed, so that could have an impact on the economy as well. But to your point, you know, Donald Trump has always used a
negotiating tactic called pacing and leading. He will threaten the worst and usually come back to something that is reasonable. So there's a good chance that he might, you know, put a pause on the eight o'clock deadline tonight if he feels like there's some progress with the parliamentary leaders of Iran. It's interesting with his speech that he had yesterday. I read a little bit about it, and he said at one point they felt like they had a deal in place with Iran, and they waffled on it and
you know, basically took it off the table. And so I think he's running out of patients. In addition to that, we're starting to see oil prices creep up to somewhere around one hundred and fifteen dollars per barrel. The time is running out on this conflict. If we continue to see prices go higher as far as the price of oil was concerned, and we start to reach over one hundred and twenty five dollars per barrel, that can have
a significant impact on our economy. And so investors right now are looking at and saying, you know, is there a chance that we can get a deal done. I think Donald Trump realizes that we have to this has to come to some type of capitulation, you know, immediately one way or the other so that we can start to move forward. And so today's going to be an interesting day. I'm going to keep my eye on the news because things, you know, have been changing hourly and
so there is a lot of concern out there. And that's why you likely you are going to see the markets fall today because of the fear.
Yeah, that makes sense. Eight o'clock deadline tonight deal or a four hour blitz. It's going to blow everything up in Iran right now and bamba back to the Stone Age. This is what President Trump has said. Rebuilding's going to take like one hundred years. There's an issue of war crimes in there, and they'll move forward with that. But you know Iran, the revolutionary they said, look, the restraint
is order. Now we're going to invade other countries. We're going to disrupt the original oil and gas supplies for years and years to come with acts of sabotage and everything else, and our soldiers will spill across the region. If if any of this happens tonight at eight o'clock or beyond, that also has a long term effect on the markets.
I would think yeah, and I think that would be a miscalculation on Iran's part. You know, you're starting to see the other countries near the Persian Gulf that have been pretty significant allies with us and been vocal about it too in the past. You know, they may have quietly, you know, supported the moves that we've made over there, but I think the whole region understands that Iran is
the primary destabilizing factor over there. And you know, whether it's UAE or whether it's Saudi Arabia, they have significant forces as well. You know, the missiles that the long range missiles that i RAN have are starting to dwindle. They probably have about half the amount that they had at the beginning of the conflict. So I think they're
running out of straws or running out of ideas. And I think at some point, you know, maybe tonight, that we're going to see some type of you know, action that's going to wrap all.
This up one way or the other.
Because all these other countries outside, maybe a couple outside with Iran on this thing, they just they want to get back to making money, I mean, right, but but they are right now right with the cost of oil, word is, they're making more Saudi Arabis pull them in serious money. So they benefit by the strife, don't.
They to some degree.
But you also have to understand if you can't deliver that oil and people can't buy it. You know, Fortunately, here in the United States, we've ramped up our oil productions significantly six since nineteen eighty. You know, we used to produce maybe five billion barrels a day. We're now close to fifteen billion barrels today. And we're actually a net exporter of energy now as opposed to a net importer.
And so while it does hurt us economically, it's hurting a lot of other nations more significantly, including China, including Russia. And so you know, everybody has a stake in this. You know, we are a global society, and I think that most of the other nations understand what our stance is here, and I think we have largely the support of the countries in that area.
Here's another thing, Andy Shaffer, I think most people grasp, and it's a hard concept because you know, you go to the gas station, you put gas in your car, whatever cant of oil, whatever, But all the oil goes into a global supply. All that It's like it's like a hairy buffalo party. Everybody brings a bottle of percent in. It's all the same gas. But you know, largely it's kind of of course, there's different types of crude light, suee, crewed, et cetera, et cetera. One may just go, is is
this the beginning? Where can we just live off our own oil? We don't have to import anything. Can we just turned quit participating in the global market and be isolationists? Who comes to our energy supply?
No?
No, we're worked decades away from being able to do something like that.
And the largely it has to do with the fact that, yes, we have a decent supply, but we haven't really tapped it. I mean, we have just really discovered the permium basin in recent history. Now it does seem based on some investigation, that that could be one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. But you also have to refine that oil, and we need the help of other nations to be able to refine that oil so that it can be used for everyday life. So no, we're all tied to this.
We don't have the ability to be isolationists and just use our their own energy. And I don't think that's what anybody wants. I don't think that's what the Trump administration wants. I don't think that's good for the economy. And I think that we do want to get along with our neighbors and trade is important, and so you know, we're all tied together on this.
Yeah, And I think it's because of that some point the other nations in the Middle East get together, and this could be a turning point in many ways where they're like, listen, Iran's really screwing this thing up, that they're the outlier here. We got to we got to do something about that. And maybe the United States, says our beckoning, but again, we're getting another messy war situation. I don't know how you do this without boots on
the ground at some point. If this is about getting the nukes out of there, you're going to have to do that. If it's about protecting the oil supply, you're going to need boots on the ground. This is something that's been going on for a long long time, certainly before Trump got here. He wants to end it. I don't know what the likelihood of that is, though.
Yeah, I do think that the Trump administration feels right now though, that they've eliminated a lot of the leadership that poses the major threat. He has communicated that he feels like the leadership that is in place is more moderate. I think he believed that the Iranian people are more moderate and want this change, and so it is probable
that we might see boots on the ground now. I do think it would probably be a limited amount of special Forces operations that would secure particular sites, including including oil reserves, refineries, those types of things. But at some point you're probably going to have some down there, and Americans generally don't want to see that happen, particularly after we go through what we went through in Iraq, what
we went through in Afghanistan. Usually when you put boots on the ground and foreign soil, it doesn't turn out well, and real history always always suggests that as well. So you know, hopefully you know, it's nerve wracking, you know, And and the other thing is you don't want to see Iranian civilians suffer from all of this, and they're certainly going to and so you know, we're getting to the point of no return where I think decisive leadership needs to happen.
It's I'm just not sure what that is exactly.
And I think that's the problem with we know what that leadership vacuum looks like. But and the longer this goes on, the more devastation there is, especially to desalization stations and infrastructure and we're talking electricity, the more hardship the Iranian people face. Who would be on our side, but if they live in squalor front of extended pier,
they're going to turn against us. And that is another part of the problem for sure that we've seen repeat over and over and over when we get into conflicts like this, there's no doubt about it. Normally we look at the market Sandy Schaeffer from all Worth Financial and go, well, you know what, they're seemed pretty calm. They kind of know you guys, kind of as you said, we've got
it banked in. We know what's going to happen. The problem here is nobody knows what's going to happen, and Wall Street is acting.
Like, yeah, and you know, we've looked at jobs. You know, we did get a decent job reportance in. You know, in spite of all of this, we added one hundred and seventy eight thousand new jobs in March. That topped the estimates of about sixty five thousand, you know, but I think you also have to look under the hood. There a lot of those new jobs.
Some of it is.
Seasonal, you know, when we start hitting spring those types of things. We also saw more people spending. Healthcare rebounded as kis permanent, tas strike ended. You have weather sensitive categories that also snap back. Leisure and hospitality certainly benefit from that. Construction and transportation as well. So while the headline numbers look good from a labor market standpoint, you know a lot of that is seasonal, and so I think really what people are looking to right now is
how is the FED going to react. We're actually going to get the Fed minutes on Wednesday. I'm always curious to see what Fed Shirman Powell has to say this press conference around two thirty. It does seem that, you know, this crisis in Iran, it is going to have an impact on inflation. It's possible that we could see a one percent increase in inflation, you know, from two and a half percent to three and a half percent. But
the core inflation is really what's most important. That excludes food and energy, and the FED doesn't likes that information a lot better than the full inflation report because they don't feel like they have an effect on food and energy prices.
But that's still going to probably tick up.
Zero point three percent or so from you know, two point four percent to two point seven percent. So we are starting to see this actually have an impact on inflation. And I think what that's going to do is it's going to cause the FED to pause even further. You know, previously I thought that it's likely that we could see
another cut in June. The way that the market is pricing in things right now, it's likely we don't see a cut throughout the end of the year, but you know, that can change at any minute.
Yeah.
Yeah, As we've seen in the past, and I know too about core inflation, food and energy prices are not part of that. But with the surgeon oil prices, we're going to see consumer prices spike against probably for this month and beyond.
Yeah.
Isn't that funny how the Fed, you know, kind of blows that those two areas off and everyday Americans are like, man, I mean, am I not am I not going to eat? Am I not going to go to one out, you know, and so you know, it hits American citizens hard. And so while the FED doesn't believe that, you know, it has a major impact on the economy, you know, I beg to differ. I mean, it's hard out there for
a lot of people. And if you know, if you're struggling and you live to paycheck to payche and seventy percent of the American citizens due this is a problem. And I think from a political standpoint, the Trump administration knows that too, especially with elections coming up soon.
So there's a lot at stake. These are very big decisions.
Hopefully it works out for the best, not only for the United States, but for the citizens of Iran and around the world.
But this is I think this is a critical moment in history.
Up till about eight o'clock tonight, things that that will change. After eight o'clock. Maybe things actually look pretty good, right, I mean, there are some economical releases that came out this week that said the economy's on pretty solid ground.
Yeah.
We saw the ISM Manufacturing Survey that's the Institute for Supply Management that revealed that we're continuing to grow, and that was the third consecutive month expansion, and manufacturing has continued to grow. A lot of that has to do with production and new orders, and I think that is reflective of you know, the FED basically dismissing the trade wars that we had last April. Now, there was some issues as far as contraction and manufacturing, but it seems
to have rebounded, so that's been positive. We also saw retail sales jump about point six percent of February. Spending increased across most retail categories. Online spending, auto deal dealerships, and healthcare stores all increased significantly. Jobless claims continue to come in very low, despite heavy layoffs, particularly in the technology sector. So you know, again it's all pretty lukewarm. It's it's decent, it's not great, but our economy still remains pretty resilient.
All right, this is as close to panic as Andy Schaeffer gets it. All work financial we'll find all time, maybe time again this time tomorrow. We'll see how we're looking. But who the hell knows. Yeah, it might have come over the deal as we're talking right now. Again that that feels like light years away, the way things work these days. Andy over at all Worth, as I said, there's show simply money. There's at six on fifty five k RZ. And he jumps in every Tuesday with a
little financial tune up. Perfect timing today, Andy, if you got suspenders, I'd put them on today.
Yeah, maybe we're talking in tomorrow.
Well put the suspenders on. God knows what's gonna happen. Helmets are on. It's all said, appreciate you, Thanks, Okay, Scott all right. News on the Way will continue to follow, of course. The big story today. What the hell is gonna happen in Iran tonight? Who gets to blink? Who's gonna blink? Willie. We'll pick it up next at the twelve oh six here on the Home of the Reds. Another win last night, to nothing win last night. They are getting it done here on seven hundred wol Nobody, Cincinnati,