Do want to be an American Scott's slum Show.
This is seven hundred w go out every course the big story State of Union last night. Trump covered a lot in his record one hundred and eight minute State of the Union address last night. We had gold medalists, we had military heroes, We had these emotional moments to argue his first year back in the White House has been a triumph. So two thirds of people who watched that last night all are in part it resonated with them, seemed to be acted positively about a little more than
the third said it was fantastic. At the same time, this had odds with other polls prior to the State of the Union that show him underwater, like six and ten voters disapprove of how the President is handling things. So it's not about them, it's about you. How much of the State of the Union messaging are you buying?
It's a simple question. Joining the show this morning to discuss and how this hit is our buddy Kevin Burton, Kevin of course with Crosstown consulting political strategist and pollster.
And welcome, thanks for having me Scott.
All right, so we all know if you've seen a State of the Union. You've seen one, You've seen them all usually and it's it's a lot of theater, it's a lot of pomp and circumstance. It's also a lot of infomercial But this one, because of that thic, you know, two thirds of people said, yeah, it was a pretty good message, was awesome. And then you look at the
polling numbers and if you believe these things. But that's the only yardstick we have to measure this at this point, other than when we go to the polls is six and ten Americans think well, we're heading the wrong direction.
He's not doing a good job.
So I look at this, the question was in your opinion as a polster and someone who's at political analyst, did he hit on the points he needed to hit on last night?
So what he did really well was he wanted to just keep making sure and the one thing that Trump is so good at and DEM's have never been able to figure this out, is he the master of kind of I don't want to say manipulation, but just controlling the narrative. So he did a really good job in that. But at the end of the day, you know, it's a dog and pony show. It is every state of the Union. I don't care who it is. Ye, So I think it's going to be more temporary that you know,
people are gonna say, oh yeah, this looks good. Affordability We heard that a lot last night. Affordability is going to continuing to be the number one issue. The one thing that Trump's doing is very similar to what Biden did is keep reiterating the stock market in four oh one case. But there's a lot of Americans who don't have that. So affordability is going to be the number one issue from now till November.
But he's kind of dismissed that. During the speech, he touched on it briefly about that. You know, he doesn't believe it's true. It's a it's a fabricated word, that affordability. No one's talking about affordability. Affordability. The way I kind of frame that is, it depends where you are. If you're someone who has means, if you have money because of your hard work, your effort, or for whatever reason.
You know the price of beef going up, for example, that's thing we all identify with, Like it doesn't affect you as much as it could be. Two dollars a pound and could be ten dollars a pund Okay, so what But of course then there's a working folk too, where you know, they're they're pinching pennies, cutting coupons and trying to save and maybe forgoing that as well. Just it depends on who's receiving the message exactly. It's just like gas prices.
For some people, it's like okay, so instead of you know, going out to dinner tonight, you know, Jeff Ruby's you go to outback. But remember the folks who propelled him to this victory were people who it was all about the economy, especially in those rough belt states. So you're seeing that their poll numbers are showing that there is a concern of economic disapproval up until last night. So now you got to see do they carry this momentum for the next you know, six months or was this
a flash in the pan. Like I said, Trump, the one thing Trump does better than probably any politicians ever is controlling the narrative.
It was a performance.
It was the ultimate reality show last night, and he just and the problem is Trump is just Trump. There's no one else besides him who can do that. Correct so you know, the State of the Union is a long ways away, so it was gonna be interesting to see. You know. I think one of the high moments, if we want to talk about that, was when he talked about the insider trading, and even Democrats clapped, and it
was a good clap back about Nancy Pelosi. I think we can all agree that we don't want our congress people insider trading.
Yeah, he had some good shots, and you expect, I mean, most State of the unions are kind of boring by design. It's more about the pomp than what's actually happening. More you know, more fluffing. But you know, you're kind of waiting for Trump zingers to come out, and he came
out with a few good ones. I thought the Nancy Pelosi thing was fantastic myself, but you know, it's an economy versus kitchen table ishes we talked about, and I think, you know, you look at the poll numbers to suggested that he's underwater, but two thirds of people watch this, and thirty sixs that people watch it for that matter, thought it was the greatest speech ever.
Two thirds said yeah it was. It was pretty positive.
Does that actually translate though to turning his numbers around in the long term.
Well, but sir, the thirty six percent is his approval rating is roughly, you know, give or take about thirty eight forty percent, So.
That's right in line. Yeah.
The one thing that Trump said that he knew better than anyone. I guess it's twelve years ago, is he knew his supporters when he said I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, and that was like, he knows his base one hundred percent. The other forty percent are Democrats. No matter what he does, it's they're not going to support him. So at the end of the day, it's
all about those independence FiOS on the middle. And that's and you know, it's that ten to fifteen percent in every election that sways the pendulum, you know, and that's who both sides are going to be targeting. You know.
There was one interesting.
Thing that I thought about the economy is that one third blames Trump, one third lanes didn't, and one third doesn't trust either. I think that's a pretty good representation of American.
That's about right.
It's so just so fractious, and it's evenly divided, and that's why that's why it feels the way it does today.
I think too. Presents often do this.
You know, somebody will go in fact check and I'll look at some of the fact checks and there are multiple claims in the speech that you know, gas prices, job numbers, drug numbers, tariffs, the economy of the tariffs, and in your experience of the fact checks, move numbers or uh, does it resonate.
With with people that that that's factually an accurate No.
I mean every every president in our lifetime has promised the moon, you know, or going to Mars in the state of the Union. In reality, it's a you know, it's a flash in the pan and then the numbers come back down. Yeah, I mean, I mean people kind of it. You know, the state of the Union is what you want to happen. But there's also the reality of breadlock and watching them.
And with the fact midterms are fast approaching, and we know how midterms are for the incumbent.
It's not good.
And you know another thing that Trump's does better than anybody else is the stagecraft. Right, So yeah, the hockey team, you had the Venezuelan political prisoner reunion handing out medals of honor. Right, Metal monitor guys, and we're giving, we're decorating soldiers and first responders. And he's always been a master of the made for TV moment.
Does does that translate?
How much of that translates to compensate for those pulling numbers? And did it land with audiences outside the chamber? I think it did.
I mean that's why he's president. You know, it literally looked like a Netflix made for documentary, like a you know, a show about a state of a union. The one thing that Trump understands better than anyone is marketing. He gets how to craft the message and craft the appearance because I mean, he was on TV for thirty years. In reality he was the first real reality TV star
America had, and so he understands optics better than anyone. Now, the question is, it's a long ways away the election, and you're not going to have another really chance like this to get as many viewers on so that they have, you know, seven eight months to kind of craft their message, which you know they're going with the economies high, the four one ks are good, but it all goes back to it's kind of like when you're doing a primary vote.
If people's lives are good generally speaking, they don't turn out for primaries. It's the people who are the most effective and who are passionate who will get out and vote. So like, if you work at fidelity in life's good and I don't. If you know you're middle of the road on either side, you're probably not going to vote in the primary. But if you know you're worried about milk prices, you're going to get out and vote because it's really affecting you.
Yeah, Or tax implications like that they're going to crack a Democrat's going to destroy them with tech.
You're gonna get out of the vote. It's going to motivate you.
In that context, though, Kevin, midterm framing this is from the midterm elections coming up.
As I mentioned.
In your read of last night, was the primary target audience swing voters who might be persuadable. Was it the Republican base and he's energizing or Democrats that Trump's he wants to put on the defensive, because I don't think you can do all of that. You can do maybe two of them, but probably one of those, which one I think it's all about his base. You know, we saw last November when he is not on the ballot. It's not the same. And Trump in his base, he can connect to that like no one else can.
You know, for Republicans, it's simply just turning out their voters, because if they turn out their voters at the bare minimum, you know, it's probably very close to what it is right now. You know, maybe a three three feet difference in the House on either side, and then maybe a one or two different seat in the Senate if they can really turn out their base.
Gotcha, he is Kevin Burton, Crosstime Consulting in Kentucky nor the Kentucky Political Strategy and pollster breaking down the state of the Union last night and what all this means put in context, if it moves the needle, and you know, there's a stand up moment where Trump and and keep in mind too, you know, immigration is Trump's well, was Trump's strongest suit. He's kind of slipped on that, but he asked legislators to stand if they believe in the
government's first duties to protect citizens, not illegal aliens. And the Democrats who stayed seated, quite a few of them became an instant Republican ad was that was a trap that was strategically set, it wasn't really organic.
How effective is that move?
And I'd say you go to setting traps because you know, was that last year where you know, it was all very very heated State of the Union. He just knows how to set traps for the Democrats. And you know this has been twelve years, twelve you know, twelve years Democrats have not been able to figure him out. That they just can't that there's no way of him. You know, they just can't understand them. It's almost like trying to
descend Lebron James. You can game plan for it, but when you get punched in the mouth, they they queasy, they don't know.
Yeah, they don't know what they're doing right exactly.
And you know the thing about Trump though, is is that his highs are super high, but his lows are super low. So if you're the Democrats, you're just waiting this out. Let's say he won last night, you got nine months, eight months to the general election, and you know you're really counting on those ten to fifteen percent with the people who really feel the affordability is right. And that's what I think both sides are going to be talking about the economy.
It does it help or hurt him when he says, well, it's it's fabricated. The affordability crisis, there's no such thing. Basically, that's kind of you in a nutshell what he said, the people buy That depends that he can turn out. It depends if he can turn out as base.
I mean, you know, they their team crafted the perfect political strategy of basically, if we get eighty ninety percent of our people, it doesn't matter what the Democrats do. That's how they've won two presidential elections.
So they're banking on that, and the parties are so far apart ideology from an ideological standpoint that you know, you look at Okay, well even if you go, well, I don't think tru it's the tariffs, it's not working, and there's an affordable crisis. But then you turn towards the Democrats and I look at people like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and AOC and go, well, their ideas are going to be far worse. I guess I got to stick with this guy. Is that the reality?
And that's the thing where you know they have Democrats have not been able to find a message to stick on Donald Trump.
They just haven't in a lot of ways.
It's similar to when Obama was in office, Republicans couldn't figure out a message to get him to lose an election. And that's why they're both presidents. They understand the whims of the general public. So you know for the Democrats that they've been trying for years to try to craft
the perfect message against Donald Trump. But the problem is he spent thirty He sent his whole adult life in front of the camera, so he understands entertainment, he understands narrative, he understands how to craft a message, and it's something that you know, a DC consultant can't craft when you're when a camera is in front of you. You have to be able to spend it. In a lot of politicians camp.
There's a lot of hackling. We saw el Green with his sign. He got pulled.
A play shouted corrupt president, and he responded by saying, these people are crazy, which is kind of laugh out loud. Does that out does that dry to outrage helped Trump or heard him? Is there a version where the party they didn't learn from last the mistakes they did last time, because that kind of backfired on.
Them last time.
Yes, and though I mean, you know it's so far her away, but it did backfire on him last time.
But you know, we got nine months.
I would I wouldn't read too much into that, you know, I think it's all gonna come down to the economy and the terriffs on.
The teriff thing.
The Supreme Court struck that down just a few days before the speech last night. He called it an unfortunate ruling. He said, we're going to keep it going through alternative means, and experts are saying, yeah, you're probably not gonna be able to do that either. Those will also be struck out as illegal. To someone who's watching at home worried
about the price is that land? Or did it look like he was kind of back on the seals little bit scrambling, because yeah, I guess the way to look at it is you look at the president, you look at the Supreme Court.
Hudo Americans trusts more.
Well. And his disapproval of the surme Court was very measured. It wasn't like him when he was lashing out on the Democrats. So I don't know if you noticed that, but it was a very measured and soft criticism of that. Yeah, he was a lot stronger true social than he was last night.
Yes, yes, you know.
And that's also just the changing of politics where Democrats has been really slow to understand trolling is a part of social media and Trump does it better than anyone. And there's been a lot of times where he trolls, but when push comes to shove, he'll he'll come back to a more reasonable approach. And he's a great rage baiter against Democrats. They just don't they just don't know
how to combat that. And the only person who kind of did any good was Joe Biden when he was still mentally you know, one.
Hundred percent right.
But that was a flash in the pans.
Yeah, he It was funny watching the predictable response because because even Hickeen Jeffrey said listen, shut the hell up, and clearly there are a number of Democrats that didn't heed his advice.
And here we go again.
Overall, the takeaway from this, the bottom line is what heading into the midterms here with the president's address last night.
It was a good night for the president based off of what you know, the polls show right now, But let's check back in two, three, weeks. Uh, you know, the Hakeem Jeffreys point or Johnson. They have the most, they have the worst jobs in DC. They're trying to corral two hundred and fifteen plus politicians who are all are trying to make a name for themselves. So I do not envy either of those two guys.
I guess my my takeaway from the whole thing last night was it's what I expected from the president from Donald Trump, and he was. He was in you know, Trump vinted Trump form as always, But I I guess i'd rather hear him go, hey, listen, you know, admitting that he never does this, but he'd admit, like, it's been a rough first year. Okay, we get that, I understand. But but here's the light at the end of the tunnel. Here's what's happening behind the scenes. Here's what you're not
seeing yet because all this pains lagging indicator. We are making progress. The worm is starting rather than going. It's the greatest economy ever. Everyone's excited with the hottest country in the world. I don't know if that lands with a lot of people. Quite honestly, I'd rather be told, hey, look, here's the pain part and pretty soon we're gonna have more game that.
I can live with. I don't disagree, but it's not his brand. Yep.
You know, Trump has never apologized for anything. So if he started doing that, does that make him look weak to his voters? Does that make hits? Because is that a shift in authenticity for him? So I get why he wouldn't say, you know, hey, the last year's been rough, but Trump's the outlier of all presidents. Probably a lot of other presidents would say that he dinnant and we'll see, you know, because what you were saying about the messaging points of the Democrats not standing. They can use all
those cuts of the greatest economy in the world. So overall, I think it's pretty much a wash.
You know.
If you're a Democrat, you have a lot of things that you can say I disagreed with. If you're a Republican, there's a lot of things that you can say, he's doing great. At the end of the day, it always comes down to the independence of the day, really right, and I.
Go look at it, going, Okay, what's the takeaway here? But again, time will tell if these policies are going to work out. It's not good for tariffs right now. But at some point are we going to start to see the fruits of this? And you hope, but sooner rather than later, especially with Mittrim's come up. Joining the show this morning on the Big One Scott Sland Show, Kevin Burton, Pollster A North, the Kentucky's cross Town Consultant, Thanks again for the time.
I appreciate it.
Thanks for having me, Slin.
All right, you got a buddy, We got news update here in just minutes. Julie Balk joins the show coming up and a very interesting story that she's going to get into here next on the show. Some a topic we talked about last week as a matter of fact, with Coca Cola and discriminating against men, and it's an interesting, interesting case that affects all of us who work for eleven. We'll get into that just ahead here on seven hundred WW