Do you want to be an American? All right, here we go Scott's Long Show, seven hundred world up in the snowy Monday morning. Not the most ideal start to the week, for sure. Could be worse. It could be in New York City. They're gonna hammered right now. All right, your price is your wallet. The Supreme Court just ruled on Friday on Trump's tariffs. What the hell does this all mean for what we pay at the store? That's the question. Tariffs. It's all confusing. Even the experts are
confused by it. I'm confused by you are as well. Money's coming into the treasury through this thing where we're going to get two thousand dollars checks. So then why do we do this in the first place if it's just going to be a rebate? And not only that, what does the future hold here when it comes to these tariffs. Michelle Schultz is with Schultz Trade Law in Dallas, an expert on such things, joining the show this morning. Michelle, how are you well?
How are you five?
That's fine, everything's good except for tariffs. So Friday Supreme Court rule six y three that the tariffs are legal, and the court said, look, This is not your job. This is a job of Congress. And we've collected some one hundred and seventy five billion in tariff revenue right now, it's all up in the air, and companies are all lined up going, hey, guess what give us our money back? Here? What the hell does this all mean? It would be
the question. And then Trump hassigned a new executive order and we're going to go with fifteen percent tariffs now as a workaround of this whole thing. And everyone's head is spinning, going, Okay, I just want cheaper beef. I want to buy a Hamburger and not have to get a second mortgage. Let's jump into this whole thing, Michelle, and I guess the question is why do to take now until now for this to hit the Supreme Court? This is a lot to spend on the books. What since nineteen seventy.
Seven, Yes, I mean, well nineteen seventy four, technically the Trade Act of nineteen seventy four, And I guess, well, that's the new one that we're using. The nineteen seventy seven would be the original one, and that's the one that was struck down. So yeah, we've been using the AEPA, which is known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for many years, since nineteen seventy seven, that one, and we use it for things that are national emergencies, like
export controls. We don't want things, we don't want our goods and our technology getting in the hands of the wrong people so that they're used against us. But this one is being used for terrorists. So it's it's been the Supreme Court has really struggled with what to do with this.
One, obviously too, as split as they were. Trump not happy about it. But now he's got a workaround that. I guess another section of this law that says, well, now we can kick a fifteen percent trade allotment in for one hundred and fifty days till Congress extends them. And it seems like, if I'm reading this incorrectly, he can.
He's just transferred one terror for another and saying, all right, this one expires as an emergency in one hundred and fifty days, and I'll just come up with another reason why to extend another one hundred and fifty days. Is that what's going to happen?
That's what I expect. Yes, I think you're right on with that this new tariff is going to be maxed out at fifteen percent. So there's some good news, but it's this one is the one that's nineteen seventy seven under Section one twenty two of the Trade Act, and this particular provision allows him a lot of authority to increase tariffs for one hundred and fifty days up to fifteen percent. And so where we had a baseline of ten percent with the AIPA tariffs, those are struck down.
We now at fifteen. Yeah, so it's it's confusing and it's up and down, but they have figured it.
Out, well, I guess. But you know, the markets hate uncertainty, and we're uncertain af right now. That is the problem until maybe Congress sorts this out and we have some permanent guidance here. But I don't expect that to happen anytime soon, considering the partial shutdown and the problems Congress has obviously, Now, what happens with one hundred and seventy
five billion dollars that's in limbo right now. I'm sure you represent as a trade attorney, Michelle, interests that want to claw that money back on Well, if the Supreme Court rules against you you owe us the money we've been paying in tears how to And as a matter of fact, I think three justices, the three conservative justices, ruled against our ruled and wanted to keep this and said, listen, we get the argument, but this is going to be
a master of the treasury. That's going to be the biggest question looming here is what do we do that one hundred and seventy five billion dollars.
That's really important, and I think that the justices were right said this is going to be a mess. But in my mind, that doesn't change what the law is. And the Constitution provides that Congress has to delegate this authority to the president. He can't use it on his own.
So technically refunds are due. Customs is ready somewhat because they use an electronic system for refunds, and we've been advising our clients, the importers in the United States, to get their electronic refund process ready if they're planning to claim refunds. It's not going to be so easy as a check in the mail. You will have to actually calculate what you're owed and why and request a refund through an automated system.
She is Michelle Schultz Schultz Trade Law. She's a trade attorney with the court striking down Trump's tariffs. And what this means because he's going to pivot and use a different section of that law that gives the one hundred and fifty days unless Congress extends them. And so we're just swapping one tear for another. But what does that mean to the bottom line? And you know, these companies that are filing protective lawsuits to preserve their refund claims,
how are you actually advising companies to protect themselves? Now, this is something you would have to start a while ago. And why it's important to get these suits filed because first in line gets the money right pretty much.
I mean, that's the way it should work. And these lawsuits that were filed basically they they they stayed liquidation, which means that they put on hold the ability of customs to finalize the amount owed on these particular entries. But now we've got a completely different set of rules in place, and we've got fifteen percent not to mention section three oh one for unfair trade practices in section two thirty two for national security, we're already in use.
And those don't go away. So we have some continued, some gone, we have new ones replacing the ones that are gone.
I tell you, it sound like you gout. You know, this is your job. You're the smartest person in the room, Michelle, and you're like, still not one hundred percent true of what all this means.
Yeah, I mean we have meetings about it at least weekly with various trade groups. Everyone's confused, and everyone's advising the clients to get ready for electronic refunds. You're not going to just get a check. But on the other hand, we don't know what to expect, except that the administration
seems to be relying on these other provisions. And I think within the next one hundred and fifty days, while they have this authority to impose fifteen percent, they will investigate other options like Section two thirty two and three oh one, and they so they have it, they have it lined up.
Basically, it sounds to me like if you're counting on that two thousand dollars refund from this whole thing that Trump promised your way at the back of the line that did that just get kicked down, going yeah, you're not going to get too grand.
That's what I would think. Yeah, I'm not counting on it.
Yeah, yeah, I'm not sure either. Yeah, okay, I'm just just making sure to be like, damn it, I thought it was going to get two grand. Probably not.
I know.
If you're a shopper online shop for that bat. There's a wonky legal term called deminimus, and the deminimous loophole remains closed and that pack did what you buy online, that's still in the fact explain that, yes, correct.
So there used to be a deminimous amount of eight hundred dollars which required you to file a formal customs entry and pay duties. And if you didn't, if you were buying something pretty cheap under eight hundred dollars like I would normally do online, you did not have to file a formal customs entry, didn't have to pay duties.
This administration took away the dominimus, so that now we as importers or US consumers in the end, have to pay duties on every item, no matter how small it is, even if it's under eight hundred dollars.
And that was the workaround for a lot of Chinese companies undercutting American manufacturers and you know, the patent not in your area, but you know, patent theft and things like that. They turn around and crank out a cheaper product. Get on TIMU whatever and buy a four dollars sweater that would normally cost you, you know, seven hundred dollars in the store. I get a cheap and it may last two washings. But it's gon fallow our. They were
exempt from tax and now this still stands. So it makes them on level playing field with North American manufacturers and manufacturers moreund the world.
I think that is a good. That's the very positive way to look at it. Yeah, that the consumers, we do hear a lot of complaints about Dominimus because it ends up it ends up getting passed down to the consumer. And I'm also hearing now that if the cost was passed to the consumer, then there's no chance you'll get a refund because you've already gotten your refund from your consumer. So this just gets more and more confusing.
Yeah, yeah, and the market take confusion. See the reaction is this week this section one twenty two part that he's now enacted. It can't be in the pass. It's been very country specific. You know, he had his big chart out as the point of the countries that are Gonnat nailed and what the percentages are, and then if he didn't like the person he was talking to, they
get hit with a higher tear. If this new section that he's using that expire one hundred and fifty days has to apply universally, does that complicate the trade deals the administration's already struck with countries like in the EU where they negotiated specific rates.
I believe it does, and I think that's what we'll see moving forward. It presents a new obstacle. So I have clients who, for example, already emailed me and said I was exempt before, but now I have fifteen percent. So it's actually worse for me. And I think under free trade agreements they're going to have to negotiate what they're going to allow. For example, under the US Canada Mexico agreement, see if there are any exemptions that we
can apply. But it actually is going to present significant obstacles for negotiating with new countries we haven't been thinking about.
Michelle Schultz is a trade lawyer with Schultz Trade Lawn Dallas, on the show, talking and explaining what the after effects are of this decision by the Supreme courtA on Friday that's struck down Trump's terror of Trump has since come back and said, well, you know what, I'm going to find a work around here loophole, and we're discussing that that what's this basically means when you buy stuff or the price of goods going to come down, You're going
to be able to afford what is in stores these days. You know, you go to the store when I'm when I go to the store and I look at beef and go beef ground beef. That's too damn expensive. I'll stick to chicken thighs. That's me and millions of other Americans are felt by this whole thing too. We're looking for some sense and some guidance here bottom line for businesses and importers, which you deal with, what should they be doing right now? Given the legal uncertainty around refunds.
You may go, well, I don't know, importers, exporters. You know a lot of people have side hustles and and you know companies that are running out of their house or their basement or whatever or garage, and it's going to affect them as well. So what's the advice.
Oh, yes, I mean they should be looking at all angles, maybe have a backup plan, be cautious about what you're spending because this is this does not mean that all the prices will go down. In fact, we're still seeing them go up because companies can't carry that burden any longer. They're having to pass on the amount to the consumers. And our clients are definitely doing that. Some folks are getting out of their business altogether and trying a new business.
We've seen that, especially in luxury items which people just aren't going to be buying anymore very much. And then you know, I was on a farm the other day and the guy was telling me, Hey, I get my own eggs, I make my own lettuce, I got my own tomatoes. I don't go to the grocery store anymore. And that's all by design. So not to say we should all get a farm, but people are just trying different things.
It is something to see. I don't know, and this is the first shoe to drop. Do you suspect more Supreme Court involvement is a very busy court session, for sure, Michelle. Do you expect more terror related issues coming out of the high coquarters. That's it.
I think there could be more. There have been other lawsuits filed, and we have companies interested in filing different types of lawsuits. So I think you'll continue to see resistant lawsuits. But it's going to play out over time. And in the meantime we've got that measures where every country is now at fifteen percent.
Yeah, yeah, we'll see how it plays out. She is Michelle Schultz at Schultz Trade Law in Dallas. Thanks again, Michelle, great inside, appreciate.
You, Thank you.
Scott's a pleasure, take care you know, hear this and go I just want a little closure maybe the good Okay, well they strike it down, I mean, prices are coming down. No, so we're just gonna replace those terrifts with others. But at what about all the deals you spend all this time working out with other countries in the EU and elsewhere. What happens to that? Just it's all kind of like up in the air right now, So you wonder if
that adds more confusion to it. Of course, tomorrow nine, the President will deliver his State of the Union address. Will be really interesting to see how how hard he kicks the teeth into the high Court because his initial tweets on true Social we're essentially saying, you know, we've got Republicans name only the rhinos, We've got liberals taking
over the High Court. I'm not quite sure when two of the people on the High Court are people you've just appointed yourself in your first term, how they are somehow infiltrated in that you know, the conspiracy theory nonsense is out there. It's like now they pretty much swore to up all the Constitution. That's what this looks like. Now he's working around it with the fifteen percent trades. But I'm not quite sure. You know, at some point,
and we're feeling it now. You look at your buying power ands diminished significantly, how much more pain you can stand as a consumer, and what that looks like for Congress and everything else. And we're quickly closing in on midterms, and I'm sure there are a lot of Republicans that are nervous beyond description because they see some significant backlash coming from all this in the midterm elections. And that's how things are run. Speaking of the president, there was
a breach at mar A Lago yesterday. FBI investigating for I understanding he was a guy who came in to mar A Lago had a can of gas and a shotgun twenty year old that he had just purchased, and everyone that they spoke to, family members, friends and everything, because you know, the minute the guy's name is released, everybody starts doing a deep dive on who this person was. Twenty years old. Cording's family. He's like, well, you know, we're all we're all pretty heavy Trump supporters, so this
was a shock to us. And he's a very quiet individual. Anytimes somebody goes in the shooting nut all the time, but shooting spret builda it's everyone going, well, I saw this coming. It's always like he was so quiet. We did not He didn't even like guns. He was scared.
He didn't even know how to work a gun. Went and bought a shotgun, I guess, and showed up the box with the brand new shotgun, never been fired, was still in the original packaging, I guess, was still in this guy's car at mar A Lago, showed up with a can of gas and a shotgun, dropped the can of gas and leveled the pump action shotgun at law enforcement officers, which of course would be Secret Service agents and two of them, I guess are the I guess
their Sheriff's deputies. Two they are there fire the fatal shots, and the FBI is asking for help on the breach at mar Laga going. This guy wasn't even on the radar, which is pretty scary, you know, and uncertain times and
uncertainty like what we're talking about here. There people are clearly mentally unstable that are going to want to do things and take things in their own hands, which makes us all just kind of go, well, you know, if you're crazy people out there and they're triggered by this, you got some real problems going on. Speaking of problems, New York City, we got the Great Blizzard of twenty six.
You know, we had record snow here in Cincinnati was like, oh yeah, in Cincinnati, Ohio, I don't New York City. It's like all the network affiliates that I have under the monitors here, they're all doing like round the clock of non stuff coverage, Like okay, well, when we got hammered, you you know, we didn't have eight reporters on the scene. Grant the biggest city in the country. I understand that, but you know, those of us have lived through the
last big snowstorm we had. We got through ours. Really don't give a damn, but hey, they got twenty four inches on the ground. There's like up to I think up to twenty four inch and some areas out there, and it's just coming down at three inches an hour. We had one inch an hour and as a crisis managed three inches an hour. I've seen that. That is a lot of snow. When you can't see a quarter mile, it is. It's frightening, is what it is. Because you
can get disoriented really quickly. I mean literally you walk out to your mailbox to go, wait, where'd the house go? It's that bad if you've ever been through that before. So twenty three twenty four inches in some areas out of New York City, there's over I think four or five thousand flight delays. I believe our seven thousand flight delays. So if you're flying to and from in that whole region,
you are in trouble today. If you're headed out to CBG or Indye, Columbus or Louisville, for sure, let me get a news update in. We'll get all that caught up with you very the latest on what's happening in and around the world. We have Reds Baseball that happened this weekend in Arizona, the spot all of the snow. The boys are playing baseball. The boys this summer are back.
I'll have Jeff Carr on from Lockdown Reds to talk about the first weekend of action and what you look for in the first week of spring training out in good Year. That's all coming up on the show. Coming up next on the show though, Speaking of sports, how about the US men's hockey team. Double gold for the US Olympians in the sport of hockey, and forty six years ago it was miracle on ice? Do you believe in miracles? In twenty twenty six, it's do you believe
in ghosts? What do ghosts have to do with the men winning gold in Milan? Details six minutes away slowly seven hundred wlwt