Food is one of the great bedrocks of human existence. Given its primacy to survival, it has also increasingly become a locus for conflict, either due to famine or as an exploitable vulnerability of even the most powerful countries. Russia’s war on Ukraine made it clear that grain could be fought over in the battle for supremacy, with the whole world dependent on the outcome. Today, we have a special episode of the podcast. Our Riskgaming designer Ian Curtiss hosts Alicia Ellis , an Air Force vet...
Jun 06, 2025•35 min
Since the launch of Project Stargate by OpenAI and the debut of DeepSeek’s V3 model, there has been a raging debate in global AI circles: what’s the balance between openness and scale when it comes to the competition for the frontiers of AI performance? More compute has traditionally led to better models, but V3 showed that it was possible to rapidly improve a model with less compute. At risk in the debate is nothing less than American dominance in the AI race. Jared Dunnmon is highly concerned ...
May 30, 2025•39 min
The U.S. Congress and the executive branch have an extraordinary level of influence over all aspects of business. Yet, as businesses have become ever more complex, the gap in knowledge between legislators and regulators has dramatically increased. That pattern is even more evident when it comes to high-scale startups and the venture capital industry, a weird niche of the investment world that even other financiers often struggle to grok. So what do you do to help DC understand our little world? ...
May 23, 2025•39 min
Last week, we recirculated one of my favorite episodes in the entire archive, our May 2022 lunch debate on risk, bias and decision-making with Nobel Prize Winner Danny Kahneman, World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke, legendary investment strategist Michael Maubaussin of Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global, and our own founding managing partner Josh Wolfe. In last week’s episode, the group discussed the value of premortems, the possibility or impossibility of humans changing their minds and ...
May 16, 2025•27 min
Reindustrialization has been a persistent theme in Silicon Valley circles the past few years, and now it’s having its moment in the sun in Washington DC too. More and more policymakers, legislators and administrators have come to terms with a stark reality: America has left the means of production behind, and in the process, has surrendered some of the country’s most powerful advantages to its adversaries, namely China. This decline wasn’t inevitable, and neither will its renaissance. But with t...
May 08, 2025•26 min
This is a big week for us, since we officially re-launched the newsletter on our gorgeous new web address Riskgaming.com , which we are now hosting on Substack. You’ll find all of our archives there, as well as much easier tools to manage your subscription to our Dispatches, Event Announcements, our edited Interviews and after almost a decade, Lux Recommends.We’ve had thousands of new people subscribe and follow us over the past two years, and so I figured this re-launch week was also an opportu...
Apr 30, 2025•26 min
Europe faces an existential crisis. Long an innovation, technology and manufacturing hub, its greatest companies and wider industries have been hit hard by competition from American tech giants like Google and Chinese manufacturing powerhouses like BYD. Multiple prominent reports have circulated about how the European Union can rapidly respond before its economy struggles even more (this week, Germany announced that its economy will not grow in 2025, for the third year in a row). Today, Marko Pa...
Apr 25, 2025•45 min
Something is rotten in the state of the internet. Social networks that were once meant to be entertaining diversions have become riven with vituperative political combat that leaves all but the most blinkered acolytes running for the safety of a funny YouTube channel. Bots swarm through the discourse, as do trolls and other bad actors. How did we let such a crucial communications medium become enshittified and can we build something else in its stead? Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming d...
Apr 19, 2025•34 min
The markets have massively gyrated the past few weeks as hourly pronouncements from the White House and Mar-a-Lago seize investors with terror or relieve them of stress. At the heart of the vociferous debate around tariffs and trade is nothing less than the future economy of the United States. What should be built here? What should we outsource? Who pays for that new economic structure? Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Josh Zoffer . Josh was ...
Apr 12, 2025•49 min
With the launch of President Trump’s trade war this week, few countries are more at risk than China. Faced with a sudden and massive expansion of tariffs as well as changes to the de minimis parcel rule, the export-led development model that has led China to great wealth is now under serious threat. What should we learn from the past of U.S.-China relations in order to understand their future? Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Neil Thomas and...
Apr 04, 2025•33 min
Chaos is the rule of the day, with markets, companies, governments and individuals being rapidly buffeted by events and change. Technology is exacerbating that chaos by offering asymmetric leverage to more people. On the positive side, technologies like AI and drones can drastically improve the productivity of workers and artists to perform their craft, benefiting us all. But there is a dark side as well: extremists are early adopters of new technologies that afford them the ability to maximize ...
Mar 28, 2025•42 min
Despite centuries of experience designing and playing war games, there is still very little rigorous research on how to evaluate what makes a good game. What’s the design goal? How much should (or even can) a game reflect reality? Are tighter or looser rules more likely to lead to productive learning? Is having fun important? That lack of rigorous analysis has historically stymied the wargaming profession, but a new generation of researchers want to push the field forward. Today, with both Danny...
Mar 21, 2025•44 min
Humans hate uncertainty, which means we are constantly looking for means to narrowly consider the future and its implications. Planning, predicting and debating what’s next may be the mainstay of any organization in the world, but organizations rarely want to confront upcoming existential challenges or radical shifts in strategy. That’s where foresight psychology comes in, with the goal of unearthing our avoidance of tough questions and finding ways to overcome them. With Danny Crichton and Laur...
Mar 14, 2025•28 min
AI and democracy are in great tension with each other. AI models are built by a priesthood of research specialists, unmoored from the will of the public. Yet, these very models are increasingly running important parts of the economy and increasingly government. How do we take advantage of these new capabilities without losing control of them? That’s the debate at the center of our conversation today with Gideon Lichfield , the writer behind the Substack “ Futurepolis ” and the former editor-in-c...
Mar 07, 2025•45 min
Amidst the upheaval in Washington, D.C. these days, one of the most notable and controversial decision from the second Trump administration has been the dismantling and closure of the United States Agency for International Development (or U.S.A.I.D.). In addition to funding humanitarian response and global public health initiatives (most notably with HIV/AIDS), the agency has prioritized governance programs all throughput the world. Traditionally, self-interest alone has proven sufficient for he...
Mar 01, 2025•34 min
There are two sides of America. One is the country’s world-leading innovation centers, which offer the highest salaries and potential wealth creation anywhere in the world. The other is the bleak deindustrialized hinterlands where former mines and factories once dotted the landscape. Here, middle class jobs have been casualized or wiped out entirely, leaving behind a depressing and well-trodden tale of economic loss. Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pev...
Feb 22, 2025•40 min
Cruel, petty and occasionally magnanimous, fates rule our lives, determining everything from our careers and romances to our financial success. Despite a burgeoning academic literature studying luck and the occasional theoretical probabilist complaining about Bayesian statistics, we haven’t brought the chance of chaotic complex systems into the classroom, and that’s particularly true in political science and international relations. That should change, and play-based learning offer new forms of ...
Feb 14, 2025•36 min
When Russia launched its war on Ukraine in early 2022, it became the first land battle on European soil since World War II. Warfare has changed dramatically since then — from first-person view drones to AI-mediated strategic communications, as well as intelligence gathering and operations — and yet, critical continuities remain between Russia’s present and past strategies and tactics. To learn more, Riskgaming host Danny Crichton interviewed Daniela Richterova , who is Senior Lecturer in Intelli...
Feb 06, 2025•39 min
There’s a growing movement to apply the best practices of technology to the U.S. government. Whether it’s Elon Musk and DOGE (the so-called Department of Government Efficiency) or the myriad of chief technology and data officers across all levels of government, the hope is that technology can enhance productivity and minimize errors, offering a better experience with government for all Americans. Few people have the wealth of experience on this front than our guest today, Christine Keung . She h...
Jan 31, 2025•41 min
It’s been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out internet cables in international waters. Outer space is being militarized by Russia and others, threatening the demilitarized posture adopted by the Outer Space Treaty. Chinese hackers are using cyber weapons to infiltrate the U.S. Treasury through the Salt Typhoon hacks, while Antarctica is being explored by multiple militaries in contravention of the peace proposed in the the...
Jan 23, 2025•27 min
The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially die on Monday as Trump re-takes the presidency with a radically different economic program. Free trade is out and tariffs are in; globalization is dead and national sovereignty is the rule of the day. Such a change has massive implications for companies all around the world, many of whom have designed their corporate strategies for a global world. Who is affected, part...
Jan 17, 2025•37 min
When we think of booms and busts, we often think of waste. The dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the late 2010s crypto craze drew insane levels of capital into new markets, proceeded to overheat them, and then vaporized everything — leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Is there a more positive way of looking at these feverish moments of economic activity though, one that accounts for progress? That’s the question at the heart of Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber ’s new book Boo...
Jan 10, 2025•45 min
It’s been a year for the record books, and so it is with the Riskgaming podcast. We published 68 episodes this year across our main show and The Orthogonal Bet sub-series with Sam Arbesman (which we will have more to share next year!). We’ve had technologists, spies, policymakers, CEOs, authors, artists and all around renaissance wunderkinds on the show this year, and so we wanted to take a step back and highlight the best moments of some of our episodes. With host Danny Crichton narrating, here...
Dec 21, 2024•48 min
We are really excited to announce the publication of our third and latest Riskgaming scenario, "Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance.” Designed by Ian Curtiss over the course of the last year, we started beta trials of the game a few months ago with dozens of playtesters and just hosted launch runthroughs across the United States in NYC, DC and SF as well as a worldwide tour in London, Romania and Tokyo. It was great fun bringing together dozens of policymakers, tech ...
Dec 14, 2024•37 min
Recently in the Riskgaming newsletter ( “The Productivity Precipice” ), host Danny Crichton wrote about one of the biggest challenges facing America: how many of our industries — and particularly those in construction and building — are becoming some of the least-efficient in the industrialized world. Today’s podcast episode identifies yet another problem, and it regards elevators. Elevators aren’t just a conveyance of convenience, they are also crucial infrastructure for millions of Americans w...
Dec 06, 2024•42 min
Every quarter, Lux sends an update to our limited partners observing the macroeconomic environment, the changes in venture capital, and our current thinking regarding the present and future of science and technology. This time, we focused on “Titanic Lessons,” four classic parables from Greek mythology that elucidate our understanding of the world. Joining host Danny Crichton is letter writer Josh Wolfe , co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital. Whether it is Prometheus offering fire as a...
Nov 27, 2024•31 min
Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with Dave Jilk . Dave is a tech entrepreneur and writer. He’s done a ton: started multiple companies, including in AI, published works of poetry, and written scientific papers. And he’s now written a new book that is an epic poem about the origins of Artificial Gener...
Nov 21, 2024•41 min
It’s not every day that we can get our distributed Riskgaming team into one podcast studio, but we actually managed to do it from our NYC base, and with some drinks to boot. Joining host Danny Crichton is Lux’s Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and our researcher, part-time columnist and all around utility handyman Michael Magnani. We talk about the U.S. presidential election and which threats from our AI deepfake election security scenario DeepFaked and DeepSixed actually took...
Nov 18, 2024•38 min
Anduril has become one of the most-watched companies in Silicon Valley, and for good reason. Its vertiginous rise from small hardware laboratory to next-generation defense prime has entranced engineers and investors alike, and it has also garnered an increasingly long record of success in Washington DC, including its victory in securing the U.S. Air Force’s flagship Collaborative Combat Aircraft contract earlier this year. Yet for co-founder and CEO Brian Schimpf, the real magic of Anduril has b...
Nov 15, 2024•40 min
Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman . In this episode, Sam speaks with the writer Henry Oliver . Henry is the author of the fantastic new book Second Act . This book is about the idea of late bloomers and professional success later in life, and more broadly how to think about one’s career, and Sam recently reviewed it for The Wall St...
Nov 14, 2024•40 min
