In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Blake and Matt. We discuss investing in a 457 plan with a self-directed option, Blake's gambling problem -- err, very interesting leveraged portfolio, and how to evaluate RIAs through their SEC filings as applied to Lido. Links: Analysis of Total Market vs. 60/20/20 vs. Large cap/small cap value portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com) Michael Kitces article re Four Phases of Retirement Planning: The Four Phases O...
Aug 30, 2023•44 min•Season 4Ep. 286
In this episode we answer emails from Chas, Keith and Fritz. We discuss the new Asset Camp tool offered by David Stein, basic issues of leverage (listen also Episodes 258 and 259) and the recent performance of long term treasury bonds. Links: Asset Camp: Asset Camp - Asset Camp Ben Carlson blog post: Everything & Everyone Underperforms Eventually - A Wealth of Common Sense Rational Reminder video about leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube Optimize...
Aug 24, 2023•22 min•Season 4Ep. 285
In this episode we answer emails from Jimmy, John and MyContactInfo. We discuss the foibles of trying to make investment decisions based on news, politics or macro-economic events, Joel Greenblatt's investment methodologies re value-weighting from 2010 and where there are today, and learn some more from Professor Aswath Damodaran about why you cannot use market valuation metrics and P/E ratios as a basis for decision-making in investing. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of...
Aug 20, 2023•35 min•Season 4Ep. 284
In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Wesley and Tom. We make fun of the host and talk about his personality traits and the Big Five personality test, Wesley's portfolio and the new managed futures fund, CTA, and a question about the historical performance about stocks in Great Britain. Links: Revisionist History Podcast re Cliff Asness and Disagreeableness: Malcolm Gladwell's 12 Rules for Life | Revisionist History | Malcolm Gladwell - YouTube Big Five Personality Test: Free open-source B...
Aug 16, 2023•24 min•Season 4Ep. 283
In this episode we answer emails from Kevin, Philip and Brown. We discuss (and thank) our generous listeners, our three principles -- Simplicity, Macro-allocation and Holy Grail -- and why they need to work together, using conservative portfolios for accumulation, investing in international funds in a sensible manner to maximize diversification and international currency risks, investing in utilities funds (listen also Episode 27) and property & casualty insurance companies. Whew! And THEN w...
Aug 13, 2023•38 min•Season 4Ep. 282
In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, Micah and Chris. We discuss some data anomalies of Portfolio Visualizer pertaining to REITs, how to interpret and use Monte Carlo simulations, a more aggressive variation of the Golden Butterfly portfolio (similar to the Weird Portfolio) and the recent performance of the Golden Butterfly portfolio itself. Links: Portfolio Visualizer REIT Data: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com) Micah's Alaskan Golden Butterfly Portfolio...
Aug 09, 2023•30 min•Season 4Ep. 281
In this episode we answer an email from Judy. We discuss a 2013 Michael Kitces article about risk parity, which aspects we have incorporated and which we have not (and why), and then talk about an interview of William Bernstein about his new book and some related thoughts and ramifications about bonds, crystal balls, annuities and other things. (Note: I think I said it was the 4th edition, but its really just the 2d.) And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample po...
Aug 05, 2023•41 min•Season 4Ep. 280
In this episode we open up Season Four by answering emails from Pete, Arnold and Igor. We discuss Pete's slightly levered Golden Ratio type portfolio, TJUL and buffered funds generally and a Portfolio Visualizer anomaly. It's Shplendid! Links: Optimized Portfolio Article re UPRO and other leveraged ETFs: The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2023) (optimizedportfolio.com) EDV and ZROX Comparison: ZROZ vs. EDV ETF Comparison Analysis | etf.com Perfect Portfolio Book: In Pursuit...
Aug 03, 2023•27 min•Season 4Ep. 279
In this episode we close out Season Three with a discussion of the annual rebalancings we performed last week on four of the Sample Portfolios -- the All Seasons, the Golden Butterfly, the Golden Ratio and the Risk Parity Ultimate. It's nitty and its gritty. Link to Portfolios Page: Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio Support the show
Jul 26, 2023•32 min•Season 3Ep. 278
In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Stanley. We discuss a podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud about methods of analyzing complex systems and financial markets and compare investments in small cap blend and small cap value funds. Links: Rick Bookstaber podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud: Seeking Risk: The Fab Rick Show: The Science of Risk (libsyn.com) The Origin of Wealth book: Amazon.com: The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Econ...
Jul 19, 2023•20 min•Season 3Ep. 277
In this episode we answer an email from Marcy. We discuss the modern and extended histories of the FIRE movement, FIRE movements and FIRE literature of the past from the 19th Century and beyond, the parallels of modern portfolio mistakes with those of FIRE circa 1990, and do a case study of Marcy's FIRE goals and portfolio using Portfolio Visualizer. (Errata -- I said "21%" for two allocations in the third portfolio when I meant 26%.) And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of th...
Jul 16, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 3Ep. 276
In this episode we answer questions from Esek and Jeffrey. We discuss the difficulties of assessing long term care needs and potential approaches and how RP portfolios differ and are similar to other approaches, such as buffered stock funds. Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center Portfolio Charts Heat Map Calculator: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts Larry Swedroe Discussing His Personal Portfolio Involving 50% Alternative Assets: Show Us Your Portfolio: Larry Swedr...
Jul 13, 2023•28 min•Season 3Ep. 275
In this episode we answer questions from Shplendid Spencer, Russel and MyContactInfo. We discuss the pros and cons of online calculators and how they are commonly inadequate and/or misused, why being conservative beyond realistic possibilities is probably not a good idea overall, and an article by Aswath Damodaran about Nvidia, the chip industry and the implications of AI for DIY investing. CORRECTION: I said the Heat Map calculator was at Portfolio Visualizer -- it's actually at Portfolio Chart...
Jul 09, 2023•39 min•Season 3Ep. 274
In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and Brown. We discuss passing 500,000 downloads, hi and jinks, the relationship between returns, the projected safe withdrawal rate and the Holy Grail principle, and using Berkshire Hathaway as a basis for portfolio construction. Links: Value Stock Geek with Your Truly: The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts The All Weather Strategy Paper: Bridgewater...
Jul 06, 2023•19 min•Season 3Ep. 273
In this episode we answer emails from Thurston Howell VI, MyContactInfo and Keith. We discuss DBMF and managed futures funds generally, my family's rapture with the sport of rowing and how to make basic asset location decisions to minimize taxes. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio . Additional links: Barry Ritholtz Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF) (2021): Andrew Beer on the Hedge Fund Industry (Podc...
Jul 02, 2023•43 min•Season 3Ep. 272
In this episode we answer questions from Pedro, Graham and Nathan. We discuss creating a Golden Ratio portfolio out of ITOT and other things, what to do about bond fund choices in a TSP and the ins and outs of the VCSAX Consumer Staples Fund. Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center TSP F Fund Page: F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) ITOT Analysis: ITOT – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF | Morningstar Optimal Finance Daily Podcast: Opt...
Jun 29, 2023•28 min•Season 3Ep. 271
In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Anonymous and Arun. We discuss a podcast and article about the concept of Ergodicity and how to apply it, a variation of the Golden Ratio portfolio from one of our listeners recently discussed in an interview, and the illusory benefits of dividend-paying stocks and related delusions. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio . Additional links: EconT...
Jun 25, 2023•30 min•Season 3Ep. 270
In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Barry and Rob. We discuss an article about investing in gold from Larry Swedroe and how to read it and the articles cited therein correctly, transitioning from a 60/40 portfolio to a risk-parity style portfolio and taking distributions and how to evaluate a pension vs. a lump sum. Groovy, Baby! Links: Swedroe Article: Misguided Investor Expectations on the Risk and Returns of Gold | Wealth Management "The Golden Dilemma" Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com) ...
Jun 22, 2023•36 min•Season 3Ep. 269
In this episode we answer emails from Jennie, Chris and Visitor 5622. We discuss Jennie's retirement situation, BTAL and long dollar funds, and VTI musings. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio . Additional links: Value Stock Geek with Your Truly: The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Sequencer:...
Jun 18, 2023•39 min•Season 3Ep. 268
In this episode we begin with a mini-rant about the THREE free steak dinner invitations we received recently. Then we answer emails from Drew, Lauren and Joe. We go over a number of useful links and information about managed futures from Drew following up on Episode 265, talk about Emerson and Jeopardy, and what to do when you reach Financial Independence early at age 39. Links: Charlie Munger Misjudgment Speech: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment - Charlie Munger Full Speech - YouTube TLDL Sho...
Jun 14, 2023•32 min•Season 3Ep. 267
In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a/ "the Dude"), Pete and Dean. We discuss box spreads, trying to market-time t-bills and interest rates, a whole host of logical fallacies and cognitive biases and a variable preferred shares fund (VRP) and what it does and doesn't do. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio . Additional links: Alpha Architect On Box Spreads: Box Spreads: An Alternative t...
Jun 11, 2023•36 min•Season 3Ep. 266
In this episode we answer emails from George, Danny, and Jamie. We discuss short-term asset allocations and considerations thereabouts, expense-tracking methodologies (led by Sister Stigmata), and manager-run managed futures funds versus replication-based funds. Links: QMHNX Page: AQR Managed Futures Strategy HV Fund - QMHNX Podcast Debate about Managed Futures Funds: 246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 | Top Traders Unplugged Support the show...
Jun 08, 2023•30 min•Season 3Ep. 265
In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark. We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity...
Jun 04, 2023•35 min•Season 3Ep. 264
In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako. We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere. Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests. Links: Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts: Tyler (@PortfolioCharts)...
May 31, 2023•24 min•Season 3Ep. 263
In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude"). We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ. Links: Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility: SSRN-id1436124.pdf Portfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator: FI...
May 25, 2023•28 min•Season 3Ep. 262
In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark, Kasey and Eric. We discuss a Kitces article about managing capital gains tax brackets, some of Mark's favorite episodes -- 208 on ideas for beginning investors and 209 about common safe-withdrawal-rate hysterias, Big ERNs' blog post on personal inflation rates and my response on his site, and the problems of substituting mental accounting about buckets and other things with actual strategies. Links: Michael Kitces Article: The Tax Impact...
May 17, 2023•25 min•Season 3Ep. 261
In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Carlos and Eric. We discuss the UPAR and RPAR risk parity ETFs and their construction, rant a bit about TIPS, discuss attractive narratives about de-dollarization in the context of cognitive biases (the possibility effect and ignoring base rates) and how our adult children use a Golden Ratio-style portfolio to save for intermediate goals. Links: Father McKenna Center donation page: Donate - Father McKenna Center UPAR webpage: UPAR Risk Parity ETF (rpar...
May 10, 2023•28 min•Season 3Ep. 260
In this episode we answer emails from Eric (x2), Ron and Jeffrey. We discuss the EconoMe Conference, my friendship with Diania Merriam, bid/ask spreads at various brokerages, an exquisite analysis of margin leverage vs. leveraged ETFs and the gold/gold miner fund GDMN. Links: EconoMe Conference 2024: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024 Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center Ron's Leverage Analysis I: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com) ...
May 03, 2023•24 min•Season 3Ep. 259
In this episode we answer emails from Bob (one of the famous Bobs), Mitchell and Davis. We discuss stable value funds vs. intermediate treasury bond funds, thinking about management issues in your 80s (and your parents), and what we have learned about leverage in portfolios since 2020. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio . Additional links: Rational Reminder video about leverage: Investing With Leve...
Apr 30, 2023•37 min•Season 3Ep. 258
In this short but jammed-packed episode, we goof off with some of our regulars and answer emails from Brian, Alexi (a/k/a the "Dude"), MyContactInfo and Kasip. We address a variety of random musings about some new treasury bond ETFs and Simply ETFs, Flight of the Conchords humor, what AI has to say about Medicare Advantage and Medigap, and what to do as a resident alien about a 401k. I can't make these emails up! We'll get back to our normal level of absurdity next time. Links: New Treasury Bond...
Apr 27, 2023•21 min•Season 3Ep. 257
