Thriving in the Age of Transition - podcast episode cover

Thriving in the Age of Transition

May 12, 202536 minEp. 31
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Episode description

Navigating through uncertainty is the essence of resilience, and in this episode, we explore how to thrive during periods of significant change. Join host Paul Spencer as he dives into his thoughts on the "Age of Transition" and ways businesses can strengthen their core against challenges. From macro forces to demographic shifts, Paul shares insightful strategies for cultivating a resilient business mindset. Don't miss out on understanding how these dynamics impact your day-to-day operations.


Key Highlights:

  • Paul discusses the concept of imposed inputs and how businesses can manage them for greater resilience.
  • An exploration of the two significant shifts currently influencing global trade and demographics.
  • Insights into the criticality of developing systematic, diverse processes for risk management in your business.
  • The importance of short feedback loops and running PDSAs for achieving business adaptability.
  • Strategies for rehearsing potential scenarios to prepare for unforeseen changes in the market and customer base.

Quotes:

  • "A resilient business means that I have confidence and it's been demonstrated."
  • "Mapping imposed inputs lets us distinguish what is chosen from what is not."
  • "The tidal wave is coming, and that's just the way the world works."

Transcript

Welcome to Resilience Talk hosted by Paul Spencer of Second Nature Solutions. Let's dive in.

Brandon Giella

Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Resilient Talk podcast. We have not had an episode in quite a while. We've taken a, taken a little bit of a break, but I am so glad that we're back, Paul, because your work in building resilient businesses arguably has never been more important than right now because we are experiencing. What you're calling an age of transition.

We are going from one era to another, and in between those two eras is a lot of uncertainty and I think something that is very pointed, a particular within that universal is the tariff situation where it's causing a lot of uncertainty. But as you, you had mentioned, uh, when we were talking, uh, before recording the episode that um, the tariff situation is a strategy against a backdrop of these macro forces that are affecting. Businesses, economies, immigration, geopolitical tensions.

There's so much even, uh, you know, technological changes. The way that companies are adopting ai, the way that they're building their supply chains. There's just so much going on because of these giant macro forces that we're gonna get into. And so you have written an article about this age of transition to help businesses. Become more resilient to handle these uncertainties.

And so I want to hear from you what started this article, what, what gave rise to you sitting down pen and paper and thinking about these things. Um, and then we'll get into some of the things that you, you mentioned in this that, especially these two big shifts that are occurring right now. So what, what started you talking about this?

Paul Spencer

Yeah. Um, well I saw a clip um, RFK Junior, I think it was in a cabinet meeting, and he was talking about the SNAP program. then he used the, the phrase, the soda industry is knocking on my door. and uh, the gist of it is, is that he wants to change the SNAP program to be more nutritious, right?

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

of, of food for, for students. Um, and what I gathered through from the clip is that the, the soda industry is making an argument that, well, nutrition's not part of it, it's just part of a food program. And, and then he made the quip that, well, it's called the Student Nutrition Assistance Program. and kinda made me chuck a little bit because you can, you can see in the back room that, uh. the soda industry is saying, geez, we got this huge account,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

It's seamless. There's hardly any friction here. It just renews over and over and over again. It's through the entire United States. Um, it's just good money, right? And now we're getting something that's happening jeopardizing this, this big account.

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

so this happens a lot. our businesses where, uh, something changes or something shifts either within our market or maybe even the macro side of things, um, are shifting. And now some of our well-known primary customers are coming back to us and, and they're saying, Hey, can we cut costs?

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

bit more, Hey, can we, uh, can we pause? Right? Can we do some of those things? And you're saying, geez, these are, these are. Our top five customers, um, if we lose them, right? You, you kind of hit the panic button and you say, if we lose them, just like the soda industry, if we lose this account. What's that gonna do for us? Right.

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

and so what comes to mind just in that example is, uh, we are in this, this age of transition and this one's pretty specific and it's more of a, a government shift rather than maybe a, a macro shift where the government at a stroke of a pen can

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

and say, we're gonna do this and not do that. And everybody kind of whipsaw with that. Um, and that's the risk of having. Government accounts. Right.

Brandon Giella

Yep.

Paul Spencer

but we also have this reality where things are in transition like you described. With the tariffs and with trade and with everything else. Um, and so when we know that we have our top five meaning customers,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

um, hopefully we have a diverse client list, right? We don't have one customer or two, we have at least five or,

Brandon Giella

Hopefully yes.

Paul Spencer

but we, we likely have every, the audiences listening to this are mature. Companies have been around for 30, 50 years, right? So you have a good client base. Um, and part of that risk management is making sure that you have a diversified client base, right? But we also know that our top five customers provide a good chunk of our, our annual

Brandon Giella

Yep. Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

maybe even more than that.

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

Um, which is okay. Um. That provides an opportunity, sometimes it provides some vulnerability we just need to be able to ask ourselves, again using this, this RFK junior example that if something changes within our top five, and let's just say we lose one of our top five, they're just gone For whatever reason, A resilient business tends to say, not ideal. You know, I, I, I don't, I wouldn't wish that to happen. I don't want it to happen.

Um, and it's gonna push up against different aspects of our business, right? but in the end, it's not the end of our end of the world

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

Um, and we'll be able to adjust and we'll likely just be able to recoup everything at, at a point in time. And the reason why we're able to say that is not because we put our head in the sand and we're just ignoring the problem. uh, we're just. Being naive about it, it's because we have a resilient business. And a resilient business means that I have confidence. It's been demonstrated that I have a system on the sales side, that it's an engine,

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And I have confidence that yeah, we lose, we lose a big account, but that engine is still running

Brandon Giella

and I know

Paul Spencer

that it can produce, That is a sign of resiliency regardless of what's what's happening around us, right? And then I also know that within my delivery side, my delivery engine is also running very well. And when something happens, with a customer or some kind of other imposed input, I know that they're also capable of adjusting and, uh, switching things out and pivoting, and then we'll, we'll be fine. Right? Again, it's not gonna be easy, it's not gonna be painless.

Um, but we can get through it. Right, as opposed to somebody who is in a, what I would call a traditional business who's not really thinking about these things and just kind of goes about their business, this would absorb. All of the oxygen

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

room for their entire business, for the next, I don't know, year and a half, right? And it may, may throw them so far off course that it may jeopardize the business itself,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

can't think, they can't sleep, they can't do anything else. But, but try to consider why did we lose that account? How do we get that account back? Right? All those things. And they, they can't, um, recover, uh, because they don't have resilience systems.

Brandon Giella

You're saying? Yeah, that's a sys, that's a business without a system is one that is gonna be, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Paul Spencer

that's more ad hoc.

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

uh, and every business has a process or a system, but, uh, a lot of times it's invisible. and it's not transparent,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

right? And nobody can look at it because it's in Paul's head. and when it comes down to it, um. Paul's head cannot run the business when,

Brandon Giella

right.

Paul Spencer

when things are shifting. Right. When you're

Brandon Giella

That's right.

Paul Spencer

of transition.

Brandon Giella

That's right, that's right. You used a phrase, you called, uh, imposed input. Can you. Define that or, or describe that and then talk about these two major imposed inputs that you see businesses facing now, but especially in the next five years or so.

Paul Spencer

Yeah, sure. So imposed inputs, uh, is something that I learned from, from, uh, from Deming and system of profound knowledge. So when we're, when we're mapping out or processes and we're being aware of those, um, I. You have inputs into your system, right? So if we're building furniture, right, you have lumber, you have hardware, like the screws and the, the, the metal pieces that are coming in, right? The, the knobs, right? Those are all inputs. And you get to choose those.

You get to choose what type of wood, right? Which type of material. Um, an imposed input is something that you don't have any, you, you can't opt out of, right?

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

non-negotiable, right? Um, and so that could be things like. economy. You might be in a recession, might have the, the ash bore bug, right? Who goes through and eats up all the ash trees and now

Brandon Giella

Yes. Yes, yes.

Paul Spencer

ash trees anymore. Right? Or the cost of ash trees are through the roof and now

Brandon Giella

Yep.

Paul Spencer

use different wood, even though that's not our preferred wood

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

there's nothing you can do about that.

Brandon Giella

Yep. Yep.

Paul Spencer

so an imposed input is, is just. We live in that always. And it's important to, to map that out. Sometimes, um, some business leaders think it's, it's a little too, um, much into the weeds to think about what those are and actually write them down.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

Um, but when we have core processes, systems in our business, it is helpful to understand the difference between what's chosen. Meaning what are the things that we have control over and what are the ones that are imposed? And when we have a clear understanding of what's imposed, I mean, you, Brandon, you and I may, may say that's imposed. And then as we talk about it, we agree that hmm, we actually have more control of that than we thought. And And we move it up

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

into a chosen. And what that does is that changes how our process actually works.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

Right. And so if we wanna do process improvement or we wanna be resilient and we can't change, uh, the ash tree uh, then we may update or change our processes to be able to handle different types of wood materials, right?

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

that is, that is a resilient business. It's really difficult to be able to handle that if you don't have eyes on site, An awareness on what your imposed inputs are.

Brandon Giella

Interesting. Okay. Okay. So things you can control and things you can't control and the things you can't control are inputs that are imposed. You have to deal with them as they are. They are. This is the facts of the case. You can't get out of it. That's what it is. Okay.

Paul Spencer

some imposed inputs, uh, be over time moved to, to, to chosen.

Brandon Giella

Okay. I that's helpful. Okay. I like that.

Paul Spencer

So, um, uh, let's take weather. Right. Let's say we're a home builder,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

home builder, and uh, and we're, uh, let's say in Florida and it rains a lot and it's hard to build quality houses the way we like to build them because it rains a lot. Well, uh, we can't change the weather, but maybe we say we're not gonna do business in Florida, we're gonna do it in, uh, Phoenix,

Brandon Giella

Which is happening, by the way. Insurers are saying that, they're like, Hey, we, we're not gonna insure your property in, in Florida or California, or whatever. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

what you're doing is you're, you're, you are adjusting, you're, instead of just dealing with it,

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

you're adjusting it and making it a, a chosen input,

Brandon Giella

I like that.

Paul Spencer

your business model because of some of the input imposed inputs, which essentially are constraints right

Brandon Giella

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

around your business. Another, another example is the government.

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

may have a regulation, may have some way of doing something, and then you may lobby your congress person right about this as a small business and they may help you change a law or get a law passed, which helps or get rid of a regulation or add a regulation which helps the business environment and move an imposed input up

Brandon Giella

Hmm

Paul Spencer

chosen. So those are

Brandon Giella

hmm. That's really helpful. Okay, but you've got two big ones that you referenced in the article and, and are kind of guiding your thinking now in this next era that we're entering into. So talk to me about these, these two I, I don't wanna give, give 'em away. So tell me what the two major, um, shifts or, or imposed inputs in this coming era that we're facing now.

Paul Spencer

Yeah. So we're in this, uh, so if you think about, uh, if everybody's heard of Neil Howell and, uh, the fourth turning, recommend you read that book. It's a.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

It's a thick book. I think it's very interesting. So it's a quick read for me, uh, but uh, maybe you could listen to it twice. Speed on audio if you're

Brandon Giella

Okay. Yeah, I'll write down the audible one.

Paul Spencer

Uh, anyway, so he's got, uh, it's a very. I think it's super interesting to think about the generations, uh, and the four generations and how they turn. Um, and so we're in that fourth generation, which in, in his model, which I think is actually proving itself out, even today we're

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

is that when you, when you experience that fourth generation, which is four generations living when they're all living together, right? They're all alive at the same time, um, and coming of age at the same time. Is that on that fourth one is when you have more of a environment,

Brandon Giella

Hmm, Hmm.

Paul Spencer

more of a crisis

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

all the things that were built prior generations as far as, uh, maybe the government. Or the institutions, or maybe even could be even values, religious values or non-religious values or whatever those things are that that grew. This society or this civilization are no longer relevant or no longer really working either because they are not relevant or because they become so stale and so abused that they no longer work.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And so people, uh, it becomes a very chaotic environment. And that's, that's his theory. That's, that's where we are today. And so, so environment that we're in is we have a demographic shift.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

we have the boomer generation that's coming out of age, right? and so the next biggest generation is the millennial generation. And so what's happening is, Throughout the entire world that boomer generation is leaving the earth, right,

Brandon Giella

It's a, it's a great way to put it. Yes, correct.

Paul Spencer

what, what we're, what we're experiencing is, uh, a loss in population in the, uh, in the developed world,

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

right? And so with that, that means that we are going to have issues. Uh, it's gonna be harder to produce. Right. it's gonna be harder to have, uh, certain living standards if you're not able to produce. and there are some countries that are falling off the cliff, right? You can just look these things up. But some countries, Europe, China, right? They're off the cliff. So meaning, uh, they will lose a lot of population, a lot of productivity power

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

the coming however many years, right?

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

Um, the US is just barely. Under reproducing. Um, but uh, we also have a immigration, uh, lever that we can pull, right? Um, people want to come here. Um, and so anyway, that's changing the world and it's changing how things are gonna, things are gonna go

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

The, uh, the second one is that the global trade, um. Pattern that we've had is also slowly, or maybe from your perspective today, is quickly disintegrating

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

shifting and it's becoming more of a regional economy, more of a, have you and me, Brandon, let's you and I trade and make a deal and using Trump's words, right. Make a deal and then let's you and I make a deal and then we become friends and, and the whole regional type economy is. Seems to be where we're going. Right.

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

and that is, um, it's a mix of things. It's a mix of lots of things. Um, mostly around the difference between us and China as part of

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

Right. That be, um, but also because the US has been, um, uh. Funding the Navy, the world's Navy, and keeping open channels, trade channels, shipping channels open. We've had a really long piece time

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

it's been easy to ship things from across the world, across lots of different countries. Make something, uh, make one piece in Asia, another piece in Africa, and another piece in Europe, and then assemble it in Mexico.

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

the only reason that's possible is because the shipping lanes are open.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And we're seeing that with the Houthis, right?

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

disrupting, um, shipping channels and trade channels, right? And so now they're having to go around Africa instead of

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

Which increased costs.

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

you start to multiply that out in different areas and it's very fragile.

Brandon Giella

It feels that way. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

the supply chain, the global supply chain can unravel fairly quickly,

Brandon Giella

Yeah,

Paul Spencer

If you get more of disruptions in the regions.

Brandon Giella

yeah.

Paul Spencer

Um, so anyway, there's lots of different things like that, that are occurring. And the other one too is the US uh, has a debt issue. And

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

so it's, uh, the idea of subsidizing the world's. Military, right, the navy and keeping everything going and funding wars and keeping the peace is, uh, running out of, it's running outta runway 'cause it

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

anymore.

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

so just by cutting that in half or maybe even a quarter, jeopardizes different trade routes,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

naval trade routes, o

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Hmm.

Paul Spencer

Um, and then that's why we're, that's why we're going into more of a regional.

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

anyway, those are things that are imposed inputs. Uh, none of us are going to change that. those things are occurring. And then so again, we have to ask ourselves, how does that affect us, if at all? Some of us are more insulated to that than others. Right. Um. And, uh, there's no use on getting stuck into the, uh, nitty gritty of daily kinda media and whatever's going on with the White House and the, the trades are on, trades are off, and the stocks are down, stocks are up.

None of it is really relevant, um, for the macro side of it.

Brandon Giella

Yeah. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

the macro side, these things are moving and it doesn't matter who's president or what's going on, these things are going to occur.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

Um, it's just a matter of are they gonna occur more slowly? Like we have an opportunity to kinda with it, right? Just like what we would say with my customers, right? Let's play with that. Let's

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

with that theory, run A-P-D-S-A and see what happens.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

so we have an opportunity to do that, um, as opposed to reaching a critical mass. say, sometime less than 10 years, 6, 7, 8 years, um, where it has to be more draconian changes.

Brandon Giella

hmm.

Paul Spencer

we may get there anyway, but who knows? Um, that part, I don't, I'm not really concerned about that as part of this talk.

Brandon Giella

Yeah. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

aware that these things are happening, their imposed inputs. There's nothing we can do about 'em. We can be educated about 'em and wear about 'em, but in the end, the weather,

Brandon Giella

Hmm

Paul Spencer

And so we, we run business in Florida, so what, how do our processes, how do our businesses work knowing that it's going to rain?

Brandon Giella

Hmm. So you just put out a lot of ideas out there. So I wanna recap really quickly. And, and see if I'm, I'm summarizing these accurately because by the way, you know, when we talk about macro, uh, topics, especially like macroeconomics and things and, and trying to forecast the future, nobody knows what the future is gonna hold. But there are frameworks and there are big, um, tectonic plates that are moving and you can see them and there are likely implications.

We just don't know exactly how they'll play out. But I, but I like the framework that you're putting together that's very helpful to understand.

Paul Spencer

that, Brandon, we got, uh, so one of the things that we've talked about before, um, with some of the videos is optimal, right? So. we look at the way to get to optimal, it's a series of feedback loops,

Brandon Giella

Hmm. small feedback

Paul Spencer

loops, right? And so even in the best of times when it's sunny out and we're, we're, we're doing our business, we al we're always striving to get to optimal. And the only way to get to optimal is short feedback loops. And we cannot predict what optimal is ever until we get there and we say, yeah, good enough. Um, but you, you, you have to have the feedback loops.

Brandon Giella

Until the next feedback loop that tells you it's not optimal and you gotta fix it. Right.

Paul Spencer

You're never gonna stop. Because everything around us is always shifting.

Brandon Giella

Right, right, right. It's, yeah. Nothing, nothing a static. So you've got this, you've got these series of, of, um, you know, generational shifts that occur. If I had to just pick a a point in history, you know, printing press came out that four generations later you had the reformation pickup. Four generations later you had the um, you know, colonial expansion and the age of exploration. Four generations later, you had the enlightenment.

Four generations after that, you had the industrial Revolution. Four generations after that, you had World War ii, and here we are four generations later. With COVID and a lot of, you know, global tensions and, and even, uh, local, you know, national tensions and things like that. Um, so going through this period,

Paul Spencer

there is the, is uh, the Civil War.

Brandon Giella

yeah. Right.

Paul Spencer

and then Civil War.

Brandon Giella

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right, right.

Paul Spencer

is very fascinating to me. 'cause, uh, the fourth turning book, the Neil Howe book, again, is just a theory he lays it out. But, um, unless you're in that kind of crisis period, which according to his theory, we are in that

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

and you're actually living it, it's really hard to be able to say. that's true or not,

Brandon Giella

Hmm, Hmm. Hmm.

Paul Spencer

they line up and, and it's history, um, but when it's actually, when you're observing it in real time, it's very, I don't know. To me it's very fascinating.

Brandon Giella

Yeah, yeah, yeah. 'cause four generations before the printing press was the black plague in the fall of Constantinople, and then four generations before that was the ending of the medieval, you know, period. And moving into a new era. I mean now, now of course this is just in the West, you know, and I'm sure every region just. Just has, you know, they, they have their four turnings as well.

But I love the idea that, that there are these kind of moments in history that you can track and build a story out of that does make seem to make sense. So given all of that, the era that we're in now is you have these two big shifts of, um, demographic shifts that a lot of the, uh, of their, um, replacement rate or population growth rate is not quite keeping up, um, with the, the. Uh, yeah, with the replacement rate, with death, death to birth ratio.

And then you've also got this, what, what was a global economy, global trade and offshoring and NAFTA and all these, you know, kind of things like this

Paul Spencer

integrated.

Brandon Giella

now.

Paul Spencer

Highly integrated meaning factories. Were just building one tiny chip.

Brandon Giella

Right.

Paul Spencer

Then other factories are just building the, the casing, right? Other factories are building the wifi and they're going all, all those raw materials are going all over the world to be able, all different places, to build those different components. They're all being shipped into one place to be assembled.

Brandon Giella

Yep.

Paul Spencer

it's fascinating the way that, I mean, we've been

Brandon Giella

Okay.

Paul Spencer

that,

Brandon Giella

Yep.

Paul Spencer

and it's very unique because we've never experienced that in the world. Right. We've never had enough peace to be able to, right. You might say maybe the, the, what's the, the silk, uh, road,

Brandon Giella

The Silk Road. Yeah. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

Like those kinds of things,

Brandon Giella

W

Paul Spencer

yeah, it's pretty

Brandon Giella

well, the, the height of that was, you know, Milton Friedman in the eighties and nineties. With that, this kind of free trade and, and a lot of, uh, which I'm a fan of, of Friedman, I think he had a lot of great things to say. Um, but then four generations before that you had Henry Ford where everything was a, you know, complete, uh, integrated supply chain. He built, you know, a giant Red River factory in, in Michigan to, to do all that.

So, yeah, it's, it's, it's funny how those things kind of turn out.

Paul Spencer

my theory, my theory, and this is again, uh, the reason why we even started this podcast and the whole newsletter, I. that in 23 was around these things.

Brandon Giella

Yeah. Yeah,

Paul Spencer

but my theory is that things are gonna become more and more localized. Right. Just like what you said with Henry Ford. We're

Brandon Giella

yeah.

Paul Spencer

gonna realize that, the uncertainty is too great.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

from a cost perspective or maybe even from a risk perspective. And so we're gonna start to, we're gonna start to condense, right? Which is that that imposed input

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

to regional and things will get closer.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

we'll, the sourcing of materials how we build things and where we buy things will be become closer. We'll see if that plays out, but that's, that's the way things are moving.

Brandon Giella

So if this theory is true, which there's a lot of evidence to say that it is, what do we do about it? You know, I mean, where do we go from here? And I, we're running out time, I feel like, but, but there's a but, but you've got, in this article, you've got some steps that we can take. So, so I want to, yeah, I wanna hear your thoughts on, on where we can go.

Paul Spencer

to be clear, we're not gonna do anything about it. It,

Brandon Giella

Oh yeah. Fair. Right? Yes. Right.

Paul Spencer

is coming and that's just the way the

Brandon Giella

Yes, yes, yes. But I, but, but you can take an active approach to that tidal wave that's coming. You can get a, a, an umbrella of, of some, yeah.

Paul Spencer

and, and I think this is also important too, just to keep in mind, is this is also from Neil Howe's book, um, which he, he kind of just points out that, you know, most people are thinking about everything that we're talking about from the lens of political sides.

Brandon Giella

Yes. Right.

Paul Spencer

Whether is blue, right? Right. Are the Democrats right, or are the Republicans right?

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

is Biden right? Or is is Trump? Right? Right. And and what he says is, that's the, that's the wrong question The, the, the most important question that he talks about is, are we prepared as Americans, right, to deal with, and he use this word, the trauma. Right. To be able to go through, uh, an era that will collapse. He

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

This 80 year generational pattern that will collapse and another one will emerge. Kind of to your

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

is we don't know even know what that's going to be, but the time that crisis, at least using his words right, that crisis period is traumatic and it collapses.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

So I think that is, that is something to be aware of that, um, of thinking about how could I change this? Or maybe who do I vote for? I mean, you can still do those things, but these things are regardless. This thing is going to happen.

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

So how do we build a resilient business?

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And all of that is just based on risk management.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And thinking about, um, how do you, uh, how do you analyze. Your customers, which ones are at risk? Which ones aren't? Which ones should we double down on? Which areas of the industry should we go after next? Um, because we feel we're predicting, right? We have a theory that they are more secure or less risk given all the inputs that we have, right? So the input being that rain. Where can we go that we can, we can have, we can build more, we can do the things that we wanna do and not

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

can we go, where we don't have the, uh, the, the trade issues or where

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

that the demographics aren't as, as, um, risky, right? Or as impactful. Um, and maybe there's not anything you can do about that. So you just do better, better, for worse, right?

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

of things. So you're thinking about risk management, um, you're wanting to kind of play those scenarios out. And most people that I work with know that I like to do the rehearsals,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

So we rehearse those scenarios and we say, all right, we get, uh, different departments in the room and we say, all right, customer X is no longer with us. Right? do we do?

Brandon Giella

Hmm,

Paul Spencer

it and we play it out, and

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

just kind of mock it up, right?

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And what that does is that gives us a se that's a short feedback loop that we can do in a half day or a two hour or one hour. And what it does is it gives us some learnings about gaps in our processes, gaps in our understanding, and maybe some, assumptions that we make about our own business that are incorrect.

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Okay.

Paul Spencer

those do is that gives us a, an opportunity to say, oh, maybe we should. that up.

Brandon Giella

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer

improve that system. Maybe we should, uh, think a little differently about our customer base. Maybe we should go talk to our customers because we're assuming this, but we're actually not sure that that's correct. Let's go ask them.

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Hmm.

Paul Spencer

which is all okay to do, right? And then as we go through that, we're thinking about, our systems, our processes. iterate, right? We run PDSAs and we're doing this always, all the time anyway.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

how our business should run. Uh, this is taking it at a, at a more strategic level and it's saying let's run a risk management process, which is just what I just described. And we're constantly thinking about where are risks. We prioritize those risks, and then we, then we run scenarios.

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Okay. Okay. Uh, I have so much more to say. Okay. Um, so the way that you phrase this is vulnerability landscape. Future scenarios, mapping those out, designing resilience systems around that testing, uh, through small experience, uh, uh, experiments, PDSA loops, things like that. And then finding that balance to achieve optimal. So those are the kind of steps that you take to see these inputs come in this tidal wave that's coming at you.

Paul Spencer

Exactly. And then as an owner, or I mean even as an executive leader, you can put a team together, which doesn't have to be executives, it can be anybody in your organization

Brandon Giella

Hmm

Paul Spencer

has different perspectives, um, different, um, seniority, meaning, uh, somebody who's new to the company versus somebody who's been there for 30 years.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

And you, you put a team of three or four together, you. Have 'em listen to this podcast and you say, figure some things out,

Brandon Giella

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

uh, let's get back next week and, um, run some scenarios,

Brandon Giella

Yeah. Yep. Yep. Cool. Yeah,

Paul Spencer

is the, this here, this is, I think this is, um, um, the main thing of all this and thinking about the soda industry and losing their snap account and all of that, um, is just insight into us that, uh, we don't have to panic there are no guarantees,

Brandon Giella

sure. Sure.

Paul Spencer

guarantees, but if we are methodical and we are, um, mature in how we run our business, um, we can handle a lot,

Brandon Giella

Yeah, yeah,

Paul Spencer

of, um, inputs and a lot of transition,

Brandon Giella

yeah.

Paul Spencer

and we'll come out the other side stronger.

Brandon Giella

If I could summarize it in one word, it would be, uh, systematic, you know, think systemically about your business and the world that you're in. And that alone will start to make your business more resilient to face these, these challenges. Yeah.

Paul Spencer

and it to I'll translate that was, if I'm systematic in my thinking, that means that I've developed a process

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

runs every quarter where I have the four people my risk management team, and they have a clear. transparent risk management process that we've developed together and

Brandon Giella

Hmm. Hmm,

Paul Spencer

That is systematic. That's systematic thinking.

Brandon Giella

Hmm hmm. Okay.

Paul Spencer

And it's, and I have confidence as the owner that, uh, when, when something like this is happening and I'm getting this, uh, tariff update. I know that I have a process that's running that's thinking about these things. And if I have a question, I go ask the team or I may even be on the team, right? And I can go say, have you thought about this? And they say, yeah, we thought about that

Brandon Giella

Yeah.

Paul Spencer

is the, this is what we arrived to,

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

No we haven't. We'll put that in our process

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

run it next meeting.

Brandon Giella

Hmm.

Paul Spencer

I'm like, good thanks. Right? And that's calm, peace of mind

Brandon Giella

Calm.

Paul Spencer

running the business.

Brandon Giella

Calm. Can you imagine running a calm business? That sounds wonderful.

Paul Spencer

owners hear the noise and then they tamper. Right?

Brandon Giella

Hmm,

Paul Spencer

then they say, go work on this.

Brandon Giella

hmm

Paul Spencer

but there's no process in place. And now

Brandon Giella

hmm.

Paul Spencer

scrambling, they're doing all kinds of stuff, and it doesn't, that doesn't mean anything. That doesn't have a lasting effect.

Brandon Giella

That resonates.

Paul Spencer

That's a traditional business, by the way.

Brandon Giella

That is very helpful to think about the systematic processes, but I, I hope. That listeners were taking notes because there was a lot of big, um, ideas, but also getting more concrete into the systematic processes. Um, but what I wanna do is I wanna, I wanna try to recap this article in a newsletter, you know, and we can send that out, um, to the community. So if you're listening to this, please go to Second Nature, do Solutions and sign up for our newsletter.

And you'll receive a seven day, uh, kind of onboarding experience working through the main, uh, foundational principles of second Nature. Um, and as part of that, you'll receive, uh, newsletters as, as the, the show comes out. And so I, I would like to put this article that you wrote, you know, partially in that newsletter for the community. So please go sign up as always, like, and subscribe. And, uh, Paul, we will see you next time. Thank you so much for your insight and wisdom as always.

Paul Spencer

Yeah, so much fun.

Brandon Giella

I see you.

Paul Spencer

Bye.

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