Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
Sep 27, 2024•20 min
RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.
Sep 20, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.
Sep 13, 2024•19 min
RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.
Sep 06, 2024•27 min
With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.
Aug 30, 2024•17 min
The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and the Federal Funds Rate.
Aug 23, 2024•32 min
RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.
Aug 16, 2024•28 min
RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.
Aug 09, 2024•22 min
Aug 02, 2024•22 min
RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week.
Jul 26, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade.
Jul 20, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses Biden’s struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump’s potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his best option?), weaker inflation and the potential for a September rate cut, expectations for the retail and auto sectors, and the disconnect between the three Russell indices.
Jul 12, 2024•25 min
Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all questions on the labor market. After many years as the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, he is now the Director of Research at the Burning Glass Institute, a research outfit focusing on labor market trends. Here, we go through many of the hot topics on the labor market as it pertains to business/market economics: the gap between the Household and Establishm...
Jul 11, 2024•42 min
Bullish Sentiment Thru the Ages Jeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.
Jul 06, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris’ role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year affects the second half, and cyclicality in the current market.
Jul 05, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, and why the first two weeks of July suggest strong seasonality from a historical standpoint.
Jun 28, 2024•20 min
RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this is not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation between banks and yields, and the dynamics of the upcoming presidential debate.
Jun 21, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be setting up nicely for a soft landing.
Jun 14, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.
Jun 07, 2024•17 min
RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.
May 31, 2024•18 min
RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race.
May 24, 2024•22 min
RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong election year seasonality, and why China is looking like the U.S. in 2009.
May 17, 2024•27 min
RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.
May 10, 2024•23 min
RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.
May 03, 2024•22 min
RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be long in the summer months in a presidential election year, what is driving the increase in the 10yr yields, and the relationship between Bitcoin and the...
Apr 26, 2024•20 min
Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.
Apr 19, 2024•6 min
RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go away” doesn’t work; and how to take advantage of the summer trading months in a presidential election year.
Apr 12, 2024•19 min
RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at the pump for voters, the impact of broader market participation, and why manufacturing is picking up.
Apr 05, 2024•19 min
RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.
Mar 28, 2024•16 min
RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’t shutdown on Monday isn’t likely to happen, why the expansion of internal highs suggests a bull market, and how energy and materials are performi...
Mar 22, 2024•19 min
