With Laurent's segle End from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. This is redefining energy. Today. On redefining Energy, we're going to talk about market dynamics and the pricing of raw materials.
But first of well, from my partner.
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Back to the show and general it all came to everybody's attention six years ago when Simon Moos, the CEO of Benchmark Mineral Intelligent, shook the world, which is now legendary testimony in front of the US in it. So a few weeks ago, Simon, which has become a good friend, calls me and says, a lot of things are happening in the pricing of battery materials. I need to come on the podcast, to which I said, Simon, You're always welcome. And then what happened is we thought we would have
Batman and we got Robin. So we have gaspar Roles with Simon first Lieutenant exactly.
And we had a very very good conversation in and around, as you said, battery materials, which are obviously critically going for because batteries is you know, the key technology and the electrification and relubanization of the world.
Yeah, we're going to talk a lot about pricing litium, and I think we'll have a tep of conversation in the conclusion because there are a lot of things happening in litium. So in the meantime, let's bring gaspar Roles on the show.
Casper, great to have you on the show.
Hi, Jered, thank you very much. In hiler On.
So guess about six years ago, Simon Moorees, your CEO, made this extraordinary testimony in front of the US and night is in relation to China the US. Let's listen to a clip and then come back to the question.
We are in the midst of a global battery arms race, which so far the US is a bystander. The advent of electric vehicles and energy storage is sparked a wave of battery megafactories that are being built around the world. The scale and speed of this growth is unprecedented and it will have a profound impact on the raw materials
of fuel these battery plants. This adds extra impetus to this mega trend of battery megafactories and the impact on the demand for critical battery raw materials of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite have been unprecedented. For example, in the next decade, the demand for lithium is set to go up nine times, cobalt set to go up six times, nickel set to go at five times, and graphite anades set to go up nine times. The question is how much of this
mineral to ev back supply chain does the US control? So, for stage one, how much of that mind supply does the US control? For nickel it's zero, For cobom it's zero, For graphite it's zero, and for lithium it's one percent. For the chemical stage whether no how it comes in for using these minerals in batteries the chemical stage, how much capacity does the US control? Nickel is zero percent, cobalt it's zero percent, graphite it's zero percent, and lithium
is seven percent. Battery capacity stage where they may be actual batteries that consuming plants. In twenty eighteen, the US had nine percent that was mainly from the Testla gigafactory in Nevada, and by twenty twenty eight we're only forecasting ten percent, So we're forecastinger are as a flatline as this industry grows. Incidentally, China is on track to have sixty five percent of battery capacity by twenty twenty eight.
It already has fifty one percent of lithium chemical capacity, eighty percent of cobalt chemical capacity, one hundred percent of graphitepacity, and a third of nickel chemical capacity. Those that control these supply chains will hold the balance of industrial power for the twenty first century of auto and energy industries. And the question I have for this committee is what role does the US want to have in this global energy storage revolution because it starts with these supply chains.
Thank you, mister Morris for reminding us so clearly and directly.
Gasper, how do you assess the six years from this into up now?
Over the last six years, lots have changed, but we're still in the exact same position. When we think about where these supply chains are today, the focus is still very much on the supply chain for the critical minerals, the raw materials that go into the battery supply chains. If you look through the data and look back at what's happened since the last six years, very much there's been a focus in the West at least on building
out the downstream in particular of the supply chain. So we've seen good expansion in terms of luthymind battery production facilities, expansions in terms of the ability to build electric vehicles. But what we haven't really seen is much in terms of that midstream and upstream refining capacity and investments and expansions adequate Shure I say, in raw materials supply, particularly for lythium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, the materials that are going
into the active materials, the anode and the cafe. So we look back at the world today, we think about politically what's going on. I'd say these markets are probably more politically charged than they've ever been, with the administration in the US, tariffs wars, et cetera, all focusing around commodities. In many cases, it's kind of back to the future. Things haven't changed all that much.
So casp can I ask the question, and why have we not seen the West go more into the material side of things, whether it's actually the mining side or the processing. So why, because as you said, it's highly strategic, you.
Know there is a mandate for that to happen. The money flowing into the space has been relatively slow. And if we're thinking about that six year period in particular, we've seen in most of these raw materials are price cycle. We're in the low of that price cycle at the moment.
Around the middle of that period kind of twenty one, twenty two to twenty three, depending on which markets you're looking at, we saw raw material prices increase really rapidly and very quickly, and then come back down again as well. If you think about companies that are looking to invest in the space, investments are certainly much easier when raw
material prices are higher. But you also don't tend to see many investments when raw material prices are falling, and we've had periods of that twice really in that six year window. That always slows down the expansion. I would say also perhaps we haven't been aggressive enough in terms
of investing in the upstreams. We've seen, particularly from China, global expansion in terms of ownership raw material so mines or operations, even processing capacity outside of China, and really that hasn't happened to the same extent from other countries.
Can we just dig into that a little bit more? Because the one thing is if I look at the market dynamics, Let's say all the analysts had the views in terms of this was sort of exponential growth, and actually the growth has actually been faster than what we'd expected.
It sort of leaves me a little bit puzzled. I understand from mind perspective, atleast you have prices that go wop them down, but you sort of look and say, the growth is there, so surely the mining companies and that's called the processing companies because at the end of the day, you have to process these materials. The opportunities there, the capitals should have normally just follow right the opportunity. I'm missing something, right, I don't know what it is.
Yeah, I mean the growth has been quicker than expected. I did a presentation at our Gigafactories Europe event earlier
this year. I look back at the ten years what the consensus was across kind of investment bank reports that was going out at the time, and that in this year twenty twenty five, that demand would reach five hundred gigabor hours, which of course with far and excess solfware around one point six terrible hours, so about three x. You know, in many cases what's happened already, we think about how hard it is to bring on minds, the permitting, the costs, the time it takes. It has been really
warp speed already. It's been as quick as you could probably expect. You know, it does look like, as you say, it should be a very appealing market. I mean, even at the moment people are saying demand isn't performing as expected. But EV sales last year grew about thirty percent globally, potentially going to be a similar number this year, or we've seen some good performance in certain regions anyway, and
so you would think the money would flow in. But I think there's still a been still some learning going on in that timeframe, people getting kind of understanding these markets and these supply chains, but be you know, still somewhat lack of transparency and these are not kind of mature markets where people can go out on the hedgehet price risk exposure, and that's kind of slowed things down
as well. So that kind of the appetite for risk is there in some cases, but in many it's not, and people are still kind of getting the hedge around these markets.
Looking back to bout six years, the market has gone from what three hundred thousand tons of letium to probably like one point five million now, so the market has times five on that aspect. Simon has been precient, and I guess nobody would have bought that this market with times five in six years. But on the other hand, a lot of those speeches about can and Cobbald, which meant that at the time everybody was pushing towards the NMC Nick and Manganes Cobbold chemistry, which in fact happened,
then stop happening because the LFP appear. The quantity, yes, but the split of those minerals and maybe you're going to cobalt, which was like the must have metals four years ago. Now it's probably the lowest in twenty years. Nikkel wed that crazy moment into a twenty two in the Northern mechaeric change and then the Indonesian quantity came in. It's difficult to predict.
The future exactly. It is extremely difficult to predict the future, and in many cases, part of that is the hardest thing to predict is consumer demand patterns, which are notoriously difficult. We do tend to see technology adoption curves have accelerated, you know, when we look back throughout history over all the new pieces of the technology that come in, it tends to happen more quickly each time. And as as you said, right, these markets have grown in excessive expectation.
A lot has changed in that period as well. So it's not just consumer demand, it's also the policy and politics around this, So like what incentives are being put
in place, what's going on. I think back to twenty nineteen, maybe it was twenty eighteen, but around that period the Chinese government were incentivizing higher energy density cathotes over LFP, and now we've seen almost not necessarily a reversal in terms of incentives, but a much larger push back towards LFP, which was around that timeframe it was almost forgotten cathode that was on its last legs and everyone was going
to move towards NTM or Nickel Bays chemistries. We see consumer or the technology demands of the market change over times. Cobal prices were relatively low. We went through DRC export ban, which saw them rise over the course of this year. Nickel again, Nickel prices have been up and down various different reasons at the exchange level and at the raw
material level. But we've seen a lot of supply come out of Indonesia which has seen that cost come down a fair amount in terms of both the production these materials and therefore the sale price. So it's a moving target. You'll have different chemistries in different regions for different applications. As you may expect. Our LFP four cars have increased
over that period as well. That six year period what we're expecting to see in the markets so very challenging when you're thinking about building operations to know exactly when that demand's going to come online. And that's part of the reason why we have seen the price volatility that we have is there isn't perfect unison between supply growth and demand growth. It's lumpy and it happens at different rates, and that's why you have this long term period of volatility within the market.
Now one of the success story is your company benchmarking their intelligence. First time I met Simon, you were like, I don't know thirty forty employees.
And now roughly around two hundred. I don't have the exact number.
Wow, So what did you do in terms of services, say six years ago, and where are you with.
In terms of like the product groups at a high level, broadly similar, we just cover more products and have gone in some new markets as well outside of course, so back in that period, I would think in twenty nineteen, all of our data is very much focused purely on
lithiumind supply chains. So we have price assessments. So these are the data that's collected from active market participants, producers, consumers, traders, etc. And then we follow a very rigorous process to assess the price and to publish to IOSCO Type two standards. So Type two is the more challenging of this internationally recognized standard to publish prices. Those prices are then used
by industry to settle supply chain contracts. If you are buying a large amount of lithium or nicola, kobor whatever it may be on a long term contract. You don't want to be negotiating the price every month with your supplier or counterparty, and so use our pricing as agreed between the parties, as accurate and independent to settle your contracts. We also have forecasting services, so long term supply demand and costs for all of the raw materials, and sustainability
reports as well. If we have a lot going on, we do. We cover the full supply chain, so we have the widest breadth of coverage in the market. So we cover from mind to grid as we call it, so from the raw materials all the way through the supply chain to electric vehicles, recycling, electric motors, et cetera. More recently this year, we launched coverage of the copper market.
Last year Rare Earth's coverage as well. So Rare Earth that go into electric motors for a number of applications but primarily electric vehicles, a lot more services and a lot more people, and.
That means also not a lot more knowledge.
Yeah, well we hope, So, yeah, that's the goal. We have a very large analyst team, the largest analyst team looking at this space, and we are also the only company which has coverage all the way from kind of the mind level. So I say through mind to grid, through to the end of the supply chain and recycling and beyond, and we feel that that gives us unique insights to be able to link all of the data
through the supply chain. You know, it makes sense that what's happening at the upstream would have an impact on the downstream and vice versus.
Yeah, for our listeners, it's very important to understand how the pricing mechanism develops in markets. And that has been going on because at the beginning, the producer and the consumer they like to do their deals one together and you know, keep the price secret, negote once a year.
But the dynamics of the market are so important. And here I want to quote the great Jeff Curry who say spot prices surpluses long term contracts or shortages, and so it means whether market is long or short, the strategic can't address it, and you need a pricing mechanism, and of course you need guys like Benchmark to independently set that price. We've seen that for iron Ore twenty years ago and it's exactly the same despite the fact that if you are six years ago to all those guys,
no no, no, no, we don't want market. We know better, but in fact they don't know better exactly.
You know, this is a very necessary step for the markets that are developing, particularly these markets which are expected to continue to grow such a long period of time and be so crucial to the energy ecosystem and in many cases the economies of many countries. But the market they need that you need to be able to settle these contracts. When you think about this world as well, which is people always talk about kind of commodities, but
in reality these still remain speciality chemicals. So there's lots of different specifications out there, there's lots of different products. They're not commoditized like you would see in other supply chains, and so it's really important to have that kind of expert analysis that goes on to ensure that the prices that you're publishing are representative of the products being traded
at the correct specification. As these markets continue to grow, we may see that some of those product specs align more closely and they do get more commoditized, But at the moment that's really not the case, and we're dealing with a large amount of data and information that we have to assess independently and then publish for people to be able to use in their contracts.
The other day, I was actually on the Shanghai Exchange and I actually just wanted to guess the lithium price, and then I realized like there was like fifty different types of lithium pricing there. So the market seems to have become incredibly complex or how do you see it? Yeah, there's a number of things going on. There's a number of different specifications. Broadly speaking, you have like feedstock, so spodymine litium carbonate, so you have technical and battery grade.
You have lithium hydroxide as well. But then you also need to think about where the price is for different regions, so you may have variations in price China versus the rest of Asia or Europe or North America or whatever region you're looking at. And we continue to launch more and more price indexes.
For this market. Liquidity is still building the side of Asia, certainly outside of China which is the main hub. But you know, those indexes are are going to be relevant and necessary as we see more and more spot activity across the globe and people want to have a price that represents what's going on in their region. Rather than linking back to an Asian price.
It's probably time now to introduce the great agreement you sign with ICE, the Intercontinuelytic change. Maybe for our listeners, what is ICE and what's the nature of your agreement?
Device is the largest commodity energy commodity exchange in the world. Its operations have focused on oil and gas. Have a huge amount of products on there, but you know it's by volume. Oil and gas is their bread and butter. So people in that world will know them really, really well. What we're doing with them lithium and cobalt contracts and that's actually kind of a new asset class for them, so kind of considered metals in the exchange world, although
we know, you know, these aren't truly metals. These are chemicals. As I said earlier, our deal with them is to launch these contracts and allow users so that can be people who have exposure to the physical world, so also makers, mining companies, etc. To hedge their price risk. Futures exchange is at aol to use financial derivatives to be able to protect yourself from price volatility or price risk at some point in the future. Our contracts are cash settled,
so it means no physical delivery. But what it does is it enables people to manage price risk in the future. That can be the physical world also in the financial world. So you may be, for example, a bank who just wants to trade these contracts or a financial institution that
wants to trade these contracts. But you may also be someone who has issued debt lent money to a company looking to develop a lithium mind or whatever it may be, and you may want to reduce some of the risk to that part of your structure around the loan using these contracts.
When I hear that, CAS, what that tells me is the market is maturing.
Yeah, exactly. So this is very much kind of the next step for these markets. By bringing in the partnership between Ice and Benchmark, what we're hoping to achieve is a more liquid futures contract that people can trade with confidence, and then with confidence be able to manage your price risk in the physical world to lithium or cobalt or
any other contracts that may come in the future. If we think back to the very start of this conversation, and I said that part of the problem that people face is that kind of volatility we've seen around pricing and the risk that people are exposed to. This is very much a tool that they can use to help reduce that and give confidence not just investments, but in terms of like business operations as well. So primarily a lot of the price risk in these supply chains sits
with the automakers, and it's very difficult for them. They have a business model where they kind of need to set the price for a long period of time and they can't frequently change that because lithium prices are up or you know, cobal prices are up, or whatever it may be. So they can offset some of that risk
using these contracts. It's never going to be perfect, there's always going to be some risk, but if you can manage the vast majority of that risk using derivatives, it's a much more stable environment for your business.
Cosper, can we dig in a little bit into that automobile industry, because for me, when again for just the outside, I look and I go when you see the price falls in the last two years, I'm just thinking, if I'm a battery buyer and I've bought wrong. As an automobile manufacturer, I'm in big trouble because my gross margin is just killed just because I've bought wrong. Can you talk a little bit about what do these automobile manufacturers do in this period where does technology change and there's
also price falls. What do they do and how do you advise them to be successful going through this, because again I can imagine if you get it wrong.
Yeah, exactly, mean there's huge amounts of money on the line, extremely challenging and not going to pretend that it's easy for these auto makers looking to build out their portfolio
electric vehicles and increase sales. Now, primarily when we think about raw material pricing and how that's linked to the batteries they're buying, We've seen over a number of years more and more of those contracts move to market lead pricing, so that's where they're indexing benchmark prices to settle the contract.
What's largely happening now is that the way these companies are buying their raw materials or all the batteries with raw materials in them, is it's market lead pricing, so pricing that is linked to where the market is today. So that would be using benchmark price assessments as spoke about, and using that to settle the price on a monthly
or quarterly basis or whatever it may be. In the contracts, you know, at least when you're buying, you're kind of close to where the market is today, rather than having bought a load of material when prices are really high and then having to try and sell it into a market when prices are much lower. So that's one way I guess the challenges. You are completely exposed to the price then, so whatever happened will be reflected in your contract.
We do see some cap and collar mechanisms in the market which limits how low the price can go, but also how high it can go, which kind of is a form of hedge. But with the advent of these contracts on ice, what it will enable the companies to
do is hedge that potential exposure in the future. They will know kind of roughly how many electric vehicles they're going to sell, and therefore how much raw material will be required for the batteries in those vehicles, and they can use these contracts to manage some of that risk, which has kind of been lacking up up to this time. Technology is kind of more challenging, I would argue in some cases because you're developing a new vehicle, maybe the model will be out in the market for eight to
ten years, whatever it may be. You will be deciding the technology that goes into that battery long before it even goes into the market, so several years before you start selling it, you'll need to define what the technology is going to be. And obviously things are moving very quickly, so in some cases that's difficult if things are moving. But we're now in a place where we have a pretty good idea of what cathode and nanotechnology is going to be used for the next five to ten years.
To some extent that that was a problem maybe a few years ago, which is being solved. But it's hard to change the seale technology kind of intramodel. You know, that could be possible maybe halfway through as some kind of like facelift, but largely speaking it won't change, so it will be fixed for a long period of time.
That does, of course give the automaker and the sale manufacturer of confidence on what they're buying will be because if you've locked a technology, you kin'd of know exactly how much littium or cobalt, nickel or graphite you need per killer, what hour of sale capacity.
And also those prices are very important if I'm financing the upstream, you know, whether equity or that, because your contract with deliver on me the perfect price, and I as a shareholder, we'll need to assess what we call the capture price, which means have I be able to sell my lithium at ninety five percent or ninety percent or above if I'm smart, Whereas right now you know
you're a bit in the dark. So I think that's also from the upstream, your contracts are extremely important to see how well a producer as perform in relation to what is supposed to get because at the end of the day, people are going to use your projections to build a financing case around extraction, and thanks to your contract we see how much they have realized it from a pricing perspective.
Yeah, exactly. We think about lithium in particular. That has been one of the challenges that the industry has faced is that quite a few years ago now, let's probably say at the beginning of that six year time period you mentioned earlier, there are still a large amount of fixed price contracts in the market, so you would just negotiate the price annually once and it would largely stay the same without any unusual market conditions for the whole year.
And that creates a problem for in some cases, you know, particularly producers that are listed where they have to disclose their financials and if they haven't achieved a sale price which is in and around the market price, then questions start to be asked. So that's something that's changed now, as said by this market lead pricing. So our prices
are extremely important to those contracts. We take that kind of responsibility very seriously as well, you know, recognizing that this is very important to the p and l of many different companies. So we ensure that our prices are as accurate and reflective of the traded prices in the physical world.
So, Casper, I'd really love to hear your view in terms of the future of Littiamion batteries. Are you as excited about it as you were when you started in this business or is growth slowing down or is there other possible alternatives to our technology?
I certainly am. One of the things I think about is that I have a lot of concerns because there's so much going on, there's so much to do, but One of the concerns I don't have is growth. These markets continue to grow at really rapid rates, and the future looks even more bright if we think about all of the different technologies that are starting to utilize lithiumin
and storage energy. In terms of your question of other technologies, who knows what the future holds in the real long term, but I think certainly in that kind of ten year timeframe, it's going to be very hard for anything to compete with lithium iin on a cost and performance basis. So
I don't see major changes, certainly in electric vehicles. Storage markets may be slightly different, but we continue to see lithium ion be the main source for storage on grids behind the meter as well, and that market in itself holds a lot of promise in terms of demand, could very easily be bigger than EV demand just on its own. So when we think about that, there's still huge potential for growth in all of these markets and therefore these supply chains and then just the other thing to add
as well, we're seeing more and more applications. If you think about robotics, if you think about drone, all of these products require energy and in many cases that's going to come from Natia minds. So yeah, the supply chains are kind of continuing to be shaped, and growth is not one of the problems they're going to have.
Well guess well, thank you so much for coming on the show, Very Lightning. Yeah, the pricing of those matels is absolutely fundamental, and so we thank you a lot for being the guardian of the liquidity and the prices of this market.
Great, well, thank you to you both having me on. It's been a great discussion and I look forward to speaking against saying thank.
You very much, Casper Lauren. Six years is a long time in the battery world. So that's what I got to conclude. It's sort of pand out completely different than actually I think that's certainly I would have expected at that point in time, you know. And what I mean by that is the materials that we were expecting that we were going to need, we realized that, well, we don't really need them. I'm talking about cobalt in particularly, right. And then the second thing for me is have been amazing.
It's just the amount of lithium that we have taken out of the ground in this period of time. You know, that's been my embarking to me, and I think the third thing was it's the pricing. You know, prices of collapse. They haven't stayed up at the high levels that they were at maybe two years ago. Right, there are the three things that I could do. I don't know about you, but what I think about the.
First thing, I would say, it's great that Benchmark allies with the ICE, which is one of the top communities market in the world, so we can have a real financial product that can be traded. Because if now, as I would say, non industrial player, you want an exposure on lithium, you need to buy some share of Albermele or SQM, and frankly that's not good enough. So having
a purely gym product that's great. Now you talk about the prices, the prices they used to be the heydays up to eighty dollars pakilo and now they are down to eight dollar pokilo. And the problem is a lot of the development we've seen a lot of the excitement. New technologies like Daly require a price of litium between let's say ten and twenty the ra paquido, so we're not there. It's great that we have the pricing but that put a bit of a doubt on the developments.
And there's one company in particular, which is Real Tinto. You know, they put billions into litium, which is great, but you know there are CEO just left. So is real going to continue considering the fact that the all thesis was the market's going to be short letium, and the market looks very well supplied.
That's an interesting point though, that you're talking about, because what you've seen. I go back to what we talked about lithium and battery is what for.
Me is the main amazing is we've seen a fivefold increase in demand over the last four years and pricing is down at the levels that you're talking about. That's for me the most amazing thing ron And so the question I pushed back on is we've been able to do that at the price levels that are there now, right, and so why is this not going to continue? Because there is a whole pile of as you say, take the case of Rio Tinto, they've already started, you know,
you're in the exploration phase. Do you really stop it at that point in time and do make these billion dollar write offs?
I think they can take the pain, but they need to be patient. It's not going to be the corner coop yad that everybody expected. It's going to take time and it's very, very difficult to continue to invest at the bottom of the cycle. So let's see what keeps his nerve and theres a lot of dry powder.
You're right on this. But what is interesting is I suppose that you talk about the materials that you'd be concerned about. Right for me, coppers at the top of the list. And it's just the reason I say that is because coppers and everything. It's about electrification. Copper you need everywhere, and it takes a long, long while to put a new copper mind into being right. And I know this, we've had one in the DRC recently and stuff like this. But the point I'm looking at us more.
You know, what happens to Corper in twenty thirty, you.
Know, depends who you talk to. Sure, now there is one last topic, and I think that's the good episode to talk about it, because it doesn't deserve all episode. It's rare Earth. Okay, So I've been doing a bit of research on rare Earth. So first where else it's you know, sixteen or seventeen different material. You have a nildmium presidium dys posium. I don't want to go through all of them, so all the stats I have are compounded.
Now listen to this. First of all, the number of reports who said that rare earth is so important and so critical I've trebled over the past five years. So it's all over the place now. The value of there earth market in two fourteen was six to ten billion. What do you think was the value into.
Twenty four I would say it's probably similar.
No, my friend, it's much less. It's eight billion. The quantities have troubled and the price have divided by three or four or five. The value of US imports of earth in two fourteen was seven hundred million dollars save for the EU. Okay, so that's one point five. In two twenty four the US imported less than two hundred million and EU one hundred million.
What you're actually saying around is they're not really rare.
What I'm saying it doesn't warrant all attention are giving it. And I give you another example. Per year, all those aware earths that the US and EU import, that's less than five hundred forty foot containers, And just to remind you, the biggest containership right now is twenty four thousand containers, so it's five percent of one ship the US Petroleum reserve.
The value is thirty billion US dollar. You take one percent of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, you can buy eighteen months of rare earth and you know and get on with it. Really, why do we still talk about the rare earth?
Okay? The reason we talk about them is because a large amount of the processing, in particulars in Chinese hands.
That's why we talk about it's nothing if it is nothing.
All to do about nothing, right, that's really what it is, right.
Rare earth. Yeah, okay, So it was great to have gaspound the show. We regret not having Simon, but what he has done with Benchmark and Raw Motion the really extraordinary price setters and very important for the investor community to have those win number we can trust. So thanks for coming with them the best excellent.
Yeah, absolutely, Simon, and thanks for coming on. It was very enjoyable and good to really catch up on this whole area of metals, RAS, minerals and battering.
And Joe I took to you next week, So forward to it.
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