With the ron segle and from London and Gerard read from Berlin.
This is Redefining Energy.
Minutes today Onredefend Energy job. The number is six minutes, which is exactly the number of minutes have been talking the past six episodes. Because there's just been you, You and Michael Barna, I've decided to talk a lot. Now can I kick off for the question? Come on, okay?
How many employees do you think Northfold has, which is the biggest battery manufacturer in Europe?
Oh my god? Thousands, six thousands, Oh my god. So we're talking about batteries a top of We're going to talk about batteries and a lot of other things, but mainly about batteries. Let would give you a second question, mm hmm.
How many people do c ATL the biggest BA Manu facturer in the world. Haven't Orange?
Oh? I must be six thousand, eighteen thousand, Oh my god.
Who's gonna win, Lauren.
That's the point of having that conversation today. I said, I'm going to talk a lot, so don't interrupt me please. I want to remind you what John Wick said. People ask me all the time. If I'm back, I think I'm back, pledge you back, Okay because it's September. A bit of music now.
Come yeah, man on, you're a bit of an idiot, honest.
Okay. We're going to talk about by and my theory and I want to discuss it with you. Is called a great consolidation. It's going to be a consolidation of suppliers. It's a consolidation of fum factors and the consolidation in chemistry. We follow battery a lot, but I like to pay tribute to a lot of young people who are really the expert. And we had the Carma Coloire on the show. I want to talk about Aaron Waite from the Volta Foundation that we have invited later this year, Dom Sug,
Christopher Chico, Chris Berry, all the team at Benchmark. They are remarkable and they have a a shoot called row Motion that publish extraordinary research on batteries, and especially a young lady called Jola Jug And I can tell you a star is bomb because she's absolutely remarkable.
Yes, Leral and this, and I suppose we actually have to ask answer one question is why do we keep talking about batteries? And I think we both agree that we think this is one of the technologies that revolutionizes our one is revolutionary at our world, and we just ignore it. We don't even think about it.
Why we do that is because the prices have gone down so fast. The adoption rate ivis are developing from say fourteen million last year to seventeen million this year, so this is unstoppable. But ESS is going twice as fast, and this is really going to change totally the way the grids are being managed.
Absolutely with you one hundred percent, but I'm going to let you talk given that you weren't able to talk and all.
This, we're so frustrated. First of all, internal market share. I've got the market share for EV's batteries or doesn't cover ESS, but it's pretty much the same suppliers. If I look at the first half of TOR two four Kettle, you talk about Kettle as thirty eight percent of the world market. Then BYD sixteen, so just the two of them,
they're above fifty percent. Then come LG from Korea thirteen percent, sk C Alb from China, SDI Panasonic, Ava from China, Gautchan, So we have nine company ninety percent of the market.
And meanwhile, back in Sleepy Europe.
Where we go, we get Moro in Norway they opened their factory five giga what our, which compares to cattle next year six hundred giga what Our. But we're very happy for morow. Yep, it's a start. And what we've seen is an incredible story of what I've called the
canceled Giga factories in Europe. And I've got the list of all those plants has been canceled or postponed Abe Romania, acc in Germany, i MTE, British World, far As, this Ino, lith Ino, bad ital Vault, Cock Holding, Turkey, Chreissel, Microvast, north voltas canceled one plant in Sweden, Poerko and Vault in Germany. So certainly it's a bit boring, but I mean that list is phenomenal considering the enthusiasm were two three years ago. And what does that tell us, Well,
it's consolidation. People are just gonna use one of the top nine. And you asked the question about north Volt Well, I don't know, but from the outside looking in, it doesn't look great.
No, Listen, they can't cancel their IPO and the miss execute just be really clear enough. The thing we learned from Solar as you have to get scale weekly and ten years is not getting the scale quickly.
And I think one of the mistakes, but it's easy now to analyze compared to when they launch five years ago, is that they get the wrong technology, because what we see is that the market is absolutely converging towards LFP, LIAMP for Spade, and that NMC is being abandoned. Now Nikkel and Cobalt are as cheap as they've been in twenty years. But I believe that the market and it's the case even for my personal investments, we're all going for LFP period.
By the way, since I with last chatter, I got a new car, I've got to tel the model, why it's got a battery from.
No BYD BYD and what technology is? Are LFP exactly exactly? What is very also interesting? So we talk about the consolidation of suppliers, we talk about the consolidation of chemistry. It's the consolidation in the foam factor.
Need you explain to people what that is?
You've got three form factors. The first one is pouch, which you find in the bid blade. How would you describe pouch rectangular shape? Yeah, but it's soft cylindricurl, so that's kind of easy. It's like your triple A batteries. Yeah, and Prismatic and Prismatic is a Cuba is a cube of two kilos and theanoes and the ketoes are on the top. In two nineteen, Pouch was forty six percent,
cylindric curl was thirty five percent. It's mostly testa. It starts doing cylindric curl, and Prismatic was only nineteen percent. This year, Pouch is down to thirty five, cylindricil is down to sixteen, and Prismatic has rich fifty percent. It's cattle. The Prismatic consolidation were going Prismatic. I've seen those batteries. I've touched those batteries, and I'm not an engineer, but they feel right.
To feel right, Yeah, yeah, Yeah.
What we're saying is we're witnessing an incredible growth but also the considation of suppliers, chemistries and fum factors.
Yeah, listen, I agree with you, and that means it's very, very difficult for new players to actually compete the reality is that the Asians are just too far ahead of anything we have in North America Europe. So you have to team up at them. That's what we have to do.
Yeah, yeah, you have to team up with them. You have to team up them. But it's not going to be a very located market. It's going to be really a high volume, low margins. Yeah, like solar absolutely, which is good for us because what's the price now fifty dollars killer one hour and it's going to go to thirty and this is great for all the use case. Now, this is going to kill probably eighty percent of the
non legium long duration algy storage along the way. But you know, the market cannot cope with hundreds of different technology and the moment you see consolidation, amouth, you see convergence. This is where you've got mass adoption.
And by the way, let's be really clear, all these new technologies are up against eighteen thousand R and D staffs in c atl or cattle as you call it.
Right, eighteen thousand okajah. In conclusion, a few things, we had those episodes with Bill Gates one forty three, one forty four extremely popular. Have you been contacted by Smell or Bill Gates or Breakthrough to correct what we have announced?
The nobody has come to correct a.
But I've been invited to sea weeks. That's very good. I've been invited to pay ten thousand dollars to go in the basement in the booth call wind Meals and Alternative Energy, to which I said thanks, but no thanks. There's been two articles in d FT over the summer. One was about the externary development of solar in Pakistan. One of the King of Sala in Pakistan is a friend of the show. He has contacted me. I've met him in London. His name is Suleiman or Reiman Suleiman.
You're doing a great job. Thank you so much for supporting the show, and congratulations on all the works you're doing in Pakistan to put solar on every roof.
And we'll get him on the show.
And we will get him on the show. Yes, next year, next year, because we are very very busy. Our planning is almost full until the end of the year. And every day, okay, we receive all those p agency. Would you get this guy on the show? Yes, yes, no, no, no, no no. But there's one person that is invited on the show, and that person is Bill Gates. I'm not even interested by Bill. He's just gonna tell his not
Big Gates. No. The person I'm interested is mister Farras Ahmad, and it's one of the top head of energy at Amazon. They're doing a lot for the PPA front and the data. Mister f A. Mad is welcome on the show to explain why he wants to rewrite the Greenhouse Gas potocord. He wants to rewrite the ic v CN, he wants to rewrite the Article six of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and probably two European directives because the way Amazon reports their emissions is a new system that nobody understands except
it looks good. Let's see Cherob great, my friend for speaking next week. Chairs.
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