The Suburban Women Problem - Season 2, Episode 40
Rachel Vindman: Thanks for listening. I'm Rachel Vindman.
Jasmine Clark: I'm Jasmine Clark.
Amanda Weinstein: I'm Amanda Weinstein.
Rachel: And you're listening to The Suburban Women Problem. Continuing our weekly countdown, the midterm elections are now only five weeks away. The women I've been talking to on my Troublemaker Tour are fired up, but the stakes are so high that there is still so much work to be done. You can sign up for The Great Troublemaker Turnout by going to redwine.blue.
Jasmine: Every time we do this countdown, I'm like, you know, hyperventilating a little bit. But while the actual election day is five weeks away, here in Georgia, early voting actually starts on October 17th. So like, literally two weeks away.
Rachel: This morning on NPR I heard a guy, he was from the Heritage Foundation, and my heart kind of sank but I was like, “I gotta keep it together. I have the kids and carpool in here.” But he said something good. He was like, “Look, if you're gonna have, like, you know, early voting or drop off ballots, just have, you know, we need to have secure drop boxes and that's it.”
And I was like, is there anything else? Did they cut it off? I don't think they did.
Amanda: Haha.
Rachel: I was like, fine, I can agree with that. He was like, Virginia is doing a good job of that. And I was like, well, yeah.
Jasmine: Do y'all have drop boxes that are outside though? Or do you have to go inside of the precinct?
Rachel: I, I vote inside and it's the DMV and there's like a room. So I don't know the answer to that because I don't get an absentee ballot, so, but he made it seem like there are, because you described them like you have to be 24-hour surveillance and they can't be something that could be blown away or carried away.
Jasmine: We had outside ones, but in the last election they took ours away and basically said it was insecure and people were dropping off, you know, 50,000 ballots at once and all that crazy crap that they were saying.
Amanda: Yeah, cause it's easy. Here's the other thing, it's easy for moms. So there's research that shows moms with little kids vote less often. And it's not because of how some politicians are like, “Oh, you just gotta vote and like, you know, get off your butt and vote.” No. That ain't it. Like we got little kids, they have fevers, they're puking…
Jasmine: Or you just don't want to deal with taking them out of the car.
Amanda: Or long lines! Like if you have little kids and that's an hour wait, please. That is like torture. And so like an outside dropbox makes it so easy. And so that women with kids, they can be sitting in the back seat while you drop it.
Jasmine: I'm glad you brought that up because I was canvasing this weekend and I went to a door and the lady answered the door and her little daughter also came to the door with her. She was probably about one. And as I was talking to her, I was like, “Well, do you plan on voting?” And she looks down at her daughter and she was like, “I don't even think I have time.” And I was like, “Oh. Oh my gosh.”
That is like such a heartbreaking thing to hear at the door, number one, cause I need her vote. But number two, when we talk about creating barriers to voting, these are the types of things that we mean. When people have little kids, giving them options that make it easier for them to not feel like voting is going to be a huge burden, that is, that is the opposite of voter suppression. That's what we should be doing.
But we don't do that. Instead, we do things like say, the dropbox has to be secure, therefore it's only available inside of the precinct during early voting, and only in this number of precincts. Which is what they did in Georgia, where we went from having about 20 drop boxes in Gwinnett County, which is a county of a million people, to 5.
And so I think when the guy from Heritage Foundation says that, it might sound innocuous, but what he's really talking about is how they made changes to voting laws that actually made it harder for people to turn in their ballot in that manner.
Amanda: And that's, that's a lot of Republicans, right. I feel like a lot of Republicans are like, “I am gonna position myself as a moderate whatever” and like–
Jasmine: Isn't that what Glenn Youngkin did?
Amanda: Yes. And they're not.
Rachel: Glenn Youngkin, who is going to go and campaign for Kari Lake. That normal Glenn Youngkin, with the vest? He looks so normal, he wears Patagonia vests! How bad can he be?
Jasmine: Is a sweater vest like a Republican campaign uniform? Because Kemp's been wearing them a lot lately too.
Rachel: He has! I saw them together and they had their matching vests.
I mean, you know, the thing I think we were kind of always getting back to is this idea of authenticity. And I've been thinking about it a lot. I wrote something about that that should be coming out soon. Like, that's the way out of this. And I think, you know, I talked with Sarah Longwell, my interview with her is gonna be on later in the pod. And I mean, the great thing about her and her focus groups is it's straight from the people, right? I mean, she is talking to them and hearing from them. You have to listen to people. You have to listen to their news sources if you're gonna try to change their mind.
Before that we're gonna talk to Julie Womack. Julie is the head organizer for Red Wine and Blue. She is very busy these days, so we're lucky to get her. And we'll get to ask her what the team has been hearing from suburban women on the ground.
But before we get to that, let's go back. You know, what we normally say is “what's been blowing up our group chat,” but I think we've all been really busy. Jasmine's been campaigning, I've been traveling, which is like, kind of has my hair on fire. Like it's, we're like a tag team. I see my husband like two ships passing in the night. He travels when I'm home and I travel when he’s home and eventually we're going to be home together more than like one or two nights.
But Jasmine, I want to hear how you're feeling. Like what are you hearing? How are you feeling specifically about your race?
Jasmine: So about my race, I think things are going well. We have knocked on several thousand doors. We're about to switch into what we call GeoTV mode. So earlier on in the campaign, it's more of a persuasion mode. It's where if there are voters out there that you think can be persuaded to vote, as well as persuaded to vote your way, then we reach out to those voters. And for me, that was really reaching out to the new people in the district.
Now we're switching into “get out the vote” mode as early voting approaches, and we want to make sure that people are planning to vote. So I've been doing meet and greets, and it means I get to talk to a lot of suburban women about the issues that they care about. Roe is still definitely on the top of people's minds. But I have actually been hearing a lot about voting rights. It's jumped back to the forefront as an issue that's on a lot of people's minds, and I guess it's because voting is about to happen and now they're being reminded of the barriers to voting.
And so voting rights is a big deal still. And honestly, y'all, guns is on the top of people's minds right now. Cause we're like Ohio, we have that permitless carry crap.
Rachel: What could go wrong?
Jasmine: Exactly. We've also seen an uptick in gun violence, and I don't know if it's an uptick in gun violence or an uptick in the reporting of gun violence. Things like… someone shooting you because you put too much mayonnaise on their sandwich, or someone shooting you in a road rage accident.
Amanda: Oh, so that's where the Republicans come in and say, “That's mental health, Jasmine.” Right. “That's not the gun.” But even so they just voted, the Republicans just voted against mental health!
Jasmine: Exactly. So even if it is mental health, they don't even care about that.
Amanda: No, they don’t.
Rachel: I will say, Jasmine, when I was in Michigan, at our Vino the Vote event in Michigan, I sat next to a woman who works… I think she's a sergeant at a sheriff's office, local sheriff's office. And she's noticed that even after the shooting in Michigan, that didn't really change their minds, but the shooting in Illinois, in Highland Park, they started changing their tune. And they were saying, “yeah, not everyone needs an assault rifle.” And so it is slowly changing.
And I'll tell you guys, you know, I was in Michigan and Ohio, I talked about that a lot last week. In North Carolina it was schools, schools, schools and more schools.
Amanda: You know, a lot of people, when they think about politics, they don't think about schools. Because it's not, it doesn’t initially appear like a left/right issue. So when you say what is top of mind for you in politics, you start to think, you know, abortion and taxes and that's what you think. And a lot of people don't even associate it with schools. Those are also political. Like the PTO or PTA, whatever you call it, a lot of them don't even think of themselves as political. But they absolutely are. All of them.
So I have a friend, Ashley, and she recently put something to me that I thought was so great and she… so she had, so we had a mutual friend who was actually complaining about trans kids in sports, and she was like, “Look, here's what I am most concerned about: the things that are most likely to affect me and my kids and my family and my community.” Tight? The chance that that will affect me is so small. It's not my biggest concern.
Jasmine: But I do think it's awesome that the kids who technically would be affected by these things, they are standing up and saying, “Stop bullying. Like, what are y'all doing?”
Rachel: Yes! Right around the corner from me, it's my, my nephew's school that he graduated from last year. They were protesting against Governor Youngkin and it was so beautiful and powerful. I'm really just so proud that they were able to stand up for their classmates.
Jasmine: I love that. Because they're the ones that are directly affected. These are their classmates. And they're saying, “Listen, adults listen to us. This is what we care about, and we're telling you, y'all got this wrong. Leave these kids alone.”
And so I love that. I love that you have such a personal relationship with that, Rachel. With your, you said your nephew?
Rachel: Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, we do not live in the most progressive part of Northern Virginia. I mean, like Loudoun County, it’s a county in transition. I really appreciated that they could stand up and advocate for themselves and for the community they want to have. Because that's what it's about, right? That's what we do. We talk all the time about our children, but also our community. And that's what they were saying. They want everyone to be included and no one to be excluded.
And I saw some local news coverage and they interviewed some of the students and you know, I saw some people dismissing that they were just wanting to get outta school or–
Jasmine: They always say that.
Rachel: They do. And you know, but that's not the case. They were very passionate. Cause we dismiss them as not being able to, you know, have an articulate thought or be passionate.
But I've talked a lot about my friend Victor Shi, who is a junior at UCLA this year and he's done amazing work. We've seen so many new registered young voters. And that's another thing that I think, you know, when we look at some of this polling, so many new women who have registered to vote, we know that it's, I don't know what the stats are, but many more women than men and a lot more young people.
So I do think the polling is off. And I only want to say that to say, like, don't be discouraged if you see the polling, even a couple of points or more than a couple of points behind. Look, we have to vote. We have to get others to vote. And I do think the polling is going to be off, especially this year. I think it's always getting more and more off every year. But it intimidates people, I think, and they're like, “Well, what's the point? Why should I get my kids out on this rainy day in November on a Tuesday when it's nap time, just staying in line? Because what does it matter? It's not gonna matter where I live.” But it really can. So please, please tell people that when they feel like “my vote's not going to count” or “it's not worth it,” it absolutely is worth it. Cause I just don't think we're capturing everything in these poll numbers.
Jasmine: Not at all.
Rachel: Just real quick, before Julie comes on, I wanted to just touch on the hurricane, Hurricane Ian. Our hearts go out to anyone who's affected by the hurricane and, you know, hurricanes should not be political, but Ron DeSantis and his followers are politicizing it, and I think this is what happens when you elect someone who's not serious about governing.
Jasmine: Or who doesn't care. Who doesn't care about actual people.
Rachel: No. I mean, we know that from his stunts. But you know, in dismantling so many of the departments and state offices– and we, we've talked to people that he's removed from school boards, he's done this in all areas of government– and now, when their experience and their expertise is needed, they're not there to give it.
Jasmine: I think it's also important to note how we're seeing storms that are much more powerful and much more destructive. We can't talk about that without talking about the fact that there are people that are denying climate change at a time where climate change is directly affecting their state, their residents, and their economy.
And I think it's important to note that when we talk about evacuation and who made what call, when those things actually do matter because while there are some people of means and resources that can take a call to leave 24 hours before they really need to leave and can just up and go. But there are some people that do not have that ability. And so the timing does matter.
And so, you know, that then boils down to leadership. And decisions that are made by leadership. And you can't just ignore that and just hope that everyone's like, “Oh, well if we say don't make it political, then we can wash our hands of our dereliction of duty.” Cause that's really what that is.
Amanda: I agree. And then it comes down to the ballot box and who we put into office. Right? And so this reminds me of… so, the Fed recently raised rates again, and there's some economists who are starting to get a little concerned about how aggressive the Fed is gonna be. So when the Fed increases interest rates, they're now predicting that unemployment is going to rise - basically meaning that what we're gonna do we know will cause higher unemployment.
People will lose their jobs. But it's not just any people. The people most likely to lose their jobs are lower income, they're minorities, and that is who those jobs are gonna be lost from, are those people. So when we talk about that rate hike, the cost of that rate hike is gonna fall disproportionately on people who are already the most vulnerable. So you have a lot of economists right now saying, “I don't know if we have a Fed who is representative of the population enough to be thinking about that and to be thinking about having an honest conversation with people.”
Cause that's not really what the Fed does, right? They're not focus grouping people to see what they think.
Jasmine: Nope.
Amanda: And the truth is, I don't know if a lot of Americans would be willing to give up their job just to get lower prices.
Rachel: These are complicated issues and that's the problem sometimes with our election cycle. These are, these are not just straightforward “say this or this,” you know, type issues. You have to educate people in order to properly inform them.
But I do think that we have that opportunity to have those conversations with our friends, with the people in our sphere of influence, if you will, or our acquaintances, and we can have longer conversations and educate them.
So I want to bring Julie on to hear how the organizing, her local organizers, what they're hearing and what they're doing. Welcome back to the podcast, Julie.
Julie: Thank you for having me. Excited to be back.
Rachel: I have been traveling around riding in the car with people in the know and Red Wine and Blue, and I am blown away by all that you are doing and how you are the organizer of so many organizers who are talking to suburban women every day. So I want to hear from you. What are you hearing that people are talking about? What's the biggest issue that you have been hearing about lately?
Julie: Reproductive rights is the biggest issue for everybody. That is top of mind for all women. I know there's a lot of people out there saying like, “Oh, that issue will fade. People will…” you know, I don't want to say forget, but–
Amanda: Have they met women? I sometimes remind my husband of something he said eight years ago, and he's like, “you remember that?”
Rachel: That might have happened yesterday at our house. I'm just saying.
Amanda: We don’t forget.
Julie: Nope. We don't forget. And then every day in the news you see more and more stories, right, about things that are happening cause abortion access has been denied.
Amanda: Yes. Different ways it affects us, right?
Julie: I mean, Amanda and I both live in Ohio and we know Ohio has been in the news because of having a six week ban and having a 10 year old have to leave the state.
Amanda: And more 10 year olds.
Julie: And I think part of it is too, is that people– some people, not women– but I think some people think that it is very much, “Oh, you're either like pro-choice or you're pro-life” and they don't see any of the other things. This is gonna stop people from getting medication that they need, right? Or this is going to stop children who are victims of abuse from getting the healthcare that they need. Or just the other multitude of consequences that have come from these laws, and they're in the news all the time, and so it is not going away. And in fact, I think it's just becoming more and more clear for women as we see story after story about how someone else has been impacted by the passage of these laws. I think it's becoming clearer in my mind with every passing day as I read these stories.
Amanda: Julie, I think that's a good point. I just read one from Arizona, I think it was a woman with rheumatoid arthritis that was very severe and she was denied her medication because it also is used as... I forget what the word is–
Jasmine: An abortifacient.
Amanda: Yeah, thank you. That word, I knew Jasmine would know that word. But the way that we are talking about reproductive rights right now is the stories of real women and children, where I feel like that is a shift from how we have historically talked about it. We kind of talked about with talking points of “pro-life, pro-choice.” That's not how we're talking about it now. We're talking about it in stories. Which is very different because you see how it affects, you know, potentially affects me or my kids or my neighbors. And I think that is a really important point for Democrats that…. maybe we don't need talking points and the right messaging. We just need the right…
Jasmine: Messengers?
Amanda: Yeah, the right messengers. That is something I think, I think pundits have gotten wrong for like ever. So what do you think pundits have gotten wrong about suburban women?
Julie: Well, number one, that they think we're gonna forget about reproductive rights.
Amanda: Totally not.
Julie: Yeah, totally not. And then I also think, you see sometimes in the media, this narrative of “well, you know, suburban women will vote like their husbands vote” or, you know, “we will forget about abortion access and be more worried about economic issues.” Because yes, we do buy the groceries a lot and we make a lot of financial decisions for our households, but I think they underestimate the fact that suburban women are also smart enough to know that like, even if you have economic concerns, even if your groceries are a little higher right now, I think we recognize that the economy will get better, but our reproductive rights are gone forever.
Jasmine: I also think that… Yes, we are the one doing the grocery shopping, all that stuff, and we realize that forced birth is not gonna make this better.
Amanda: That's gonna really, that's gonna really affect those grocery bills.
Rachel: What if I had three more people to serve? That would make this so much cheaper!
Amanda: Yeah, that would not fix inflation, I would just like to officially say.
Julie: I think the other thing that they miss is the fact that we actually have a lot of influence, not only over our friends, but over our husbands and boyfriends. Like I think they are kind of like that whole kind of older mindset of like, “Well, women listen to the men about politics,” and I'm thinking nowadays that's not true. Cause I think we've even seen polling, I think Red Wine and Blue even tweeted this out, that like dads have moved from Republican to Democrat because they see these extreme laws and the impact it's gonna have on their daughters. I mean, on all of their children, honestly.
But I know personally, I have a lot of conversations with my husband. The terrible laws that are being passed, how they're gonna impact his daughters.
Rachel: Julie, just this weekend, USA Today had an article: “The Right To Control Our Own Fates is at Stake in 2022. Can Suburban Women Save It?” Can they? What do you think about that?
Julie: Absolutely.
Amanda: Woo!
Julie: Because we are a huge voting bloc. We are an important voting bloc. I think that people have woken up in a way they haven't woken up in the past.
Jasmine: Yeah. I think it's also an intersectional voting block in that the suburban women voting bloc also overlaps with Black women, white women, Hispanic women, AAPI women. So I think it's really important that when we talk about the influence of suburban women, we are also talking about the influence of all of those groups as well.
Rachel: Yes, absolutely.
Amanda: So you, you're mentioning, you know, all of these women who are mad and upset about Roe, but some women might still be hesitating. Why do you think they're still hesitating and what can we do to kind of welcome them into the fold?
Julie: Well, I think we were all taught growing up that you don't talk politics, right?
Amanda: Not ladylike.
Julie: Yeah, not ladylike. But I will say that I do feel like there's something with this attack on reproductive rights where we all as women feel it so deeply and see the impact, that it has turned people who may have been hesitant before into more of like, “No, maybe I do need to have that conversation.”
Or especially us Mama Bears who are like, “No.” I mean I have a 19 and a 17 year old daughter, so for me, I am just thinking constantly about what is their future, what could potentially happen to them. So that brings out the Mama Bear in me that I am gonna stand up and do everything I can.
So I think that is a big motivating factor and that's why I love what we're doing with Red Wine and Blue is teaching people the impact they can have by having these conversations with their friends. And then we're giving them tools and resources to start those conversations to give them information about voting, what's at stake in their elections and why it matters. Giving them tools to be able to go and look up their ballot if they go to rwbvotes.com and get involved with the program that we're doing, which is where we are, you know, asking everybody to talk to 10, 15, 20, 30 friends and have these conversations. But we have the tools right there for them to share. And so that makes it really easy to start these conversations.
And I think your friends want to be informed, right? So your friends want to be informed voters, so you're giving them something that helps them, and you're validating that they want to be informed and that you're just reaching out to them to make sure they have the information they need to, you know, to make the right choices.
Rachel: Julie, thank you so much for joining us again. It's a pleasure to have you on. More than that, thank you so much for the work you're doing, because organizing the organizers is not easy. Anyone who's ever volunteered for the PTA knows this is not so easy. So I, you know, full, full speed ahead, don't take our feet off the gas, but then I hope in November you get a little bit of a break.
Julie: Yeah. I’m looking forward to that. But I love my team. They're amazing and they're great to work with, so–
Amanda: And you make it fun.
Rachel: I mean, you know, that's the thing is these parties are so fun! Like, you're going to talk about politics and you're going to talk about this, but it should be fun.
And as Bev says– Bev, our chief content creator– “Politics is self-care because speaking up and advocating for yourself is self-care.” And having a say in your future, and the determination of it, is taking care of yourself.
So with that, next I am gonna share my conversation with Sarah Longwell, and I was on the road in North Carolina recording from my hotel room, so hopefully the sound quality is okay. But it was so interesting to hear from Sarah about her focus groups and that interview was coming up after the break.
BREAK
Rachel: Our guest today is a political strategist and the publisher of the website The Bulwark. She hosts a podcast called The Focus Group, one of my personal faves, where she listens to regular Americans in focus groups talk about politics, which I talked to her about when she was a guest on the podcast almost exactly a year ago.
Sarah Longwell: Has it been a whole year? It doesn't feel like a year.
Rachel: You know, I was a little surprised myself, but I do remember listening to the first episodes of the pod, like of your pod, of the Focus Group, a year ago and being really terrified. But I mean, you, you've continued doing the focus groups since we last talked, so I'm curious, what have you been hearing and what has changed?
Sarah: Well, it's interesting. If we were doing them a year ago, I suspect what I said when we talked was really about this enthusiasm gap that I was seeing, right? So like cause about a year ago, and you know, just thinking about the Virginia race, which, you know, we were kind of leading up to the governor's race there with Youngkin.
Back then I remember I was talking to Dem groups, Independents and Republicans, and the Republicans were just so upset about the election being stolen, and they couldn't wait to vote in 22 to vote for any living breathing Republican. And the Dems were like, “Blah.” Like they were, Biden couldn't get his stuff together and he was too progressive, or he was not progressive enough, and “the Dems were in disarray” and “they couldn't get anything passed.” And so the Democrats were really down in the dumps.
And so I think when you say you were scared, I know what you mean. You actually mean just like in general it’s scary to hear what people think. But I remember being at the time like, “Wow, this is bad for Democrats. Like this party just staged a coup pretty recently, and yet they are in a power position going into 2022.” And obviously what's changed is that the enthusiasm gap, like what the Dobbs decision did more than anything else, was kind of close that enthusiasm gap.
I think it remains to be seen whether it's enough to kind of galvanize the kind of turnout that Democrats need and really pull persuasion voters. And we can talk more about that. But certainly the thing that it did was sort of even out that enthusiasm. And so I would say that's been one of the main shifts that I've seen since the last time we talked.
Rachel: I, so I am on my Troublemaker Tour currently, I was in Michigan, Ohio, now North Carolina. Lots of enthusiasm, but it's like small enthusiasm at a grassroots level. And I'm sure you see that in focus groups, but it doesn't like always translate to like, crazy 6000-person rallies with like matching shirts and clothing made out of the American flag.
Sarah: Yeah, I think that's probably right. And look, I think one of the great mysteries of ‘22 for me is that maybe we… you know what? We talked about this, we talked about this when you were on my podcast, you listened to the focus group. Because one of the things, the phenomenon that I would see, still see all the time is that when you just say like, “Hey, what are you thinking about? What's, what's going on? How do you feel about things going in the country?” They talk about crime, they talk about inflation, they talk about the economy, like that's what they talk about. They usually don't bring up abortion at the top.
But as you get into the conversation and you start talking about individual candidates, whether it's Adam Laxalt in Nevada, or JD Vance or, you know, name your Republican, especially the governors, you know, Tudor Dixon and Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano, Tim Michaels in Wisconsin... Like when you start to talk about the people, the actual candidates, then suddenly people start to talk about abortion. And they know these candidates positions on abortion. And the number one thing that that sort of defines the candidates for them as extreme–even though they're extreme on lots of fronts, they're extreme on January 6th, they’re election deniers– but the thing that people really notice is that they're extreme on abortion.
And so that has been how I see the abortion stuff interacting with the elections. It's not the kind of thing where people are gonna run out in the streets, but it is having an impact on how they're thinking about these candidates.
Rachel: I definitely, I still remember I was listening to the focus group again before we recorded. I watched it, I was listening to it again, walking through Central Park, and then I went and I remember us talking about this, but it stuck with me so much like when I realized… “Wait, I just heard this again. They did not mention it until someone mentioned it to them.” But I think we've even gotten more comfortable since then talking about it because it's been everywhere and you know, people have been talking about it.
But my favorite group of people that you talk to is always the women who were Trump 2016, but flipped in 2020, which was the focus group that I got to watch. Can you just remind us what were some of the reasons that they flipped in the first place and what's going on with them now?
Sarah: Yeah, so not just that group, but basically we have this whole category that we talk about affectionately as flippers, and so they're the 2016 Trump 2020 Biden voters, and we care about those voters so much because that's the work that I do, is sort of persuasion with those swing voters.
And it's funny, we still ask just about every group, we ask why they voted for Trump in 16, then why they voted for Biden in 20. And the answers are always, they're so consistent. Why they voted for Trump in 16 was because he was a businessman, they thought they wanted to shake things up, they wanted something different, and they hated Hillary Clinton. Like those are the, basically everything's in that wheelhouse.
Why did they choose Biden? One of the things we always ask is like, “Did you affirmatively vote for Biden or did you vote against Trump?” And it is like 9 outta 10, they voted against Trump. And, and the reason is, you know, sometimes I expect them to have a core reason or like a thing that he did, but it's usually some variation on like, “God, he was such a jerk and I really couldn't stand him.” And it's like a pretty basic thing. Sometimes you get people talking about Covid, that that was sort of determinant for them.
Rachel: Yeah, I heard some people talking about that.
Sarah: Yeah. But, but a lot of it was like, you know, “He's just such a jerk and I'm so sick of him and I'm sick of all the news.” They just wanted him to go away. I always described it as like the, when you listen to these flippers, it was like a car alarm had been going off and someone finally shut it off. Like that relief that you feel when that stimulus goes away is how sort of people talk about Trump.
And I will say, and I can't remember if this is what we were talking about last time, but there was obviously a lot of backsliding we were seeing from that group. Cause these, that group of people are sort of institutionally Republicans, you know, they voted for Trump the first time cause they're like, “ah, give him a chance. I'm a Republican.” And then, you know, they were like, “No, I can't stand this guy.” And it was kind of hard for them to vote for Biden. Like, it was actually a little bit of a stretch for them.
And so it was easy for them to come back to a guy like Youngkin in Virginia, which is where we saw a lot of backsliding from these sort of Biden voters. And, and now I would say, the thing that happened with Republicans going into ‘22 is they didn't nominate a lot of Youngkins. Leaving aside where Youngkin is today. Like who he, who we perceived him to be then. But instead, they nominated a bunch of…. it’s like Trump was a gremlin they put water on and now he's everywhere. There's like a million of them, right? And so these voters don't like those people.
And so even though they care about the economy and they care about crime and like the environment seems to be very favorable, Republicans have just put up these candidates that are lousy and that swing voters don't love. And so I think one of the things people talk a lot about Dobbs, about the dynamic that's, that sort of shifted… I actually think one of the biggest things that happened was just how bad the nominees are.
Rachel: Yeah. Are there any other issues in the focus groups that you were hearing, like sort of consistently?
Sarah: I mean, sometimes they talk about being embarrassed internationally. That was a thing. And then, I mean, at the time, right, the economy was, at least part of it was in trouble, that was related to Covid.
I mean, when you say issues, I'm trying to think about... I don't know how to say this without sounding judgmental, cause I don’t ever want to disparage people, but I gotta say people are not particularly policy forward. Now that I've done sort of hundreds of these groups, what has become clear to me is how much more of it is like vibes. I'm sure that there are issues that matter to them, but like when you ask them, they haven't been thinking about it. And so you're just sitting down and they're much more like, be like, “Well, I just like didn't him. I was like so sick of him. And. he wouldn't shut up.”
I mean, it was, a lot of it too was just like, “He would say terrible things. He was, he fired everybody.” So it wasn't actually policy.
Rachel: Yeah, that was a problem for me too. Actually, both of those things, he would say stupid things and firing people. I had kind of a personal experience with that. Haha.
So you, you actually have spoken to women in two of Red Wine and Blue’s target states, Ohio and Pennsylvania. What are you seeing in those states about how people, how women in particular are leaning?
Sarah: So Ohio is super interesting and I'd love to hear what you're hearing out there in Ohio, but I'll tell you the most interesting thing to me about the Ohio group of all women… so these were Trump 2020 voters. They voted for Trump in 20, but in 18 they voted for Sherrod Brown.Which means like, you know, they're kind of swingy and they'll vote for Democrats.
And I thought what was really interesting, I had been very credulous, skeptical of the polls coming out of Ohio. Cause Ohio's an R+8 state and I'm watching Tim Ryan run a great campaign. JD Vance is very loathsome, so like, yeah, he's running a terrible campaign. So I… I believe that it’s close. But like all these things that had Ryan ahead, I was sort of surprised by, and I still think, to be honest, that unfortunately Vance will pull it out by a point or two. But they really liked Ryan and one of the main things that had stuck with them that I thought was pretty interesting is that Ryan over the summer had a pretty hard hitting set of ads around JD Vance's having this scam charity. He collected money for, for opioid assistance.
Rachel: Isn't that sort of like a requirement for Republicans? The scam? The scam charity?
Sarah: Yeah, maybe. I mean, it is like the imitation of Trump. Right? So JD collected money and didn't give it out to any sort of opioid recovery efforts at all. He paid for some polling, he paid for some weird stuff. So they had like, they spent a lot of money on a couple ads and the women all knew about this. And it was one of those moments where it occurred to me there was just something going on locally that I didn't really think about. Fentanyl and opioids in some of these states are actually enormous issues that touch everybody and where they have these horrible experiences. And so the idea that he would have not just a scam charity, it's not just that it was a scam charity, it was that a scam charity about opioids, which is like a desperate situation in Ohio. And so they were all talking about that ad and like one woman was talking about how she saw the ad and how she went and looked it up. And so, you know, I think that was, that was, to me, the fact that that ad was really landing with people was a good example of what a good job Ryan is doing of defining JD Vance. Like nobody trusted JD Vance. That stuff was working.
And the other thing that he's doing is he's running a hyper localized campaign. Like he has ads where he's like, “I voted with Trump on trade.” He has these ads where he is walking through his neighborhood and he is like, “When I vote, I don't think about political parties. I think about the people who live in these houses. These are my neighbors.”
The other thing I'll say... They just all thought that Ryan was a very handsome, handsome fella. Haha. And so that was also working for him.
Rachel: Okay, true story. We were at Alex's attorney's hotel the night after… that's where I met him after his closed door testimony. And I met Tim Ryan that night and I did not know who he was, I'm just gonna say, and we took a picture with him. And I only know that because I went back later and I was like, “Oh, that's the guy that we took the picture with!” Alex was like, “Yeah, Tim Ryan.” And I, I remember saying to Alex on the way home, I was like, “He should run for a president! He has the look!” And you've broken a lot of hearts by saying that you think that JD is going to pull it out.
One thing I will tell you about when I was in Ohio, when you asked what people are saying, everyone went around and they were introducing themselves and one woman, she was like, “I'm gonna blow your minds. I'm a Republican.” And then she, you know, it was fine. We're like, “Welcome. It's okay.” During the training, there were some slides and talking about some of the proposed laws in the Ohio legislature. Her face… I wasn't trying to be creepy, but just watching her face, she was shocked. And I talked to her afterwards, like, she's all in, trying to get the word out on some of this stuff. So I thought that was very interesting. But this is just, it's pretty difficult work to do.
Okay, so one more subject. The January 6th hearings. They're gonna start up again next week. They're delayed because of the hurricane. I'm curious if you think that January 6th is anything other than entertaining television for people like us?
Sarah: I do. I do think they matter. However, I'll say that the way that they matter is kind of ephemeral. It's not us. Like, we watch them and go, “Holy crap.” Cause we know how things work or are supposed to work and like how crazy it is that things were going this way. And we are, we can be not surprised, but still shocked by things. So like when I hear the tape by Roger Stone before the election, talking about, “Hey, when do we get to start with the violence?” And “Let's just start, you know, shooting.” And very clearly they were just gonna ignore the results of the election if they lost. Like, that should be shocking to Americans. But we know it's kind of not.
But here's what it does do. It drives a news cycle, a period of time that stuff does seep in. Even if it doesn't kind of break through, it seeps in. And so when the January 6th hearings were going on before, you know, in the focus groups, I suddenly saw it. Normally in the focus groups, you ask Republicans, Trump voters, “Who do you want to see run in 2024?” At least half of them say Trump. And all of a sudden no one was saying Trump. And I was like, “This is odd. Like we had three groups in a row, nobody said Trump.” You know, it wasn't because they were sitting down watching the hearings and they were like, “Oh, he's a really bad guy.” It's because they started to be like, “I don't know that he's electable. Like I think he's got too much baggage. Like maybe we should move on to somebody else.”
But it clearly was a temporary effect. Right? It's like a temporary thing, like when the salience of that is really high. It does sort of have an impact. And so I think bringing it back right now and sort of having that focus of the conversation, just like the focus of the conversation when it's on abortion is better. That's why Ron DeSantis put migrants on a plane because they literally want any context under which to talk about immigration. Just because it's a much better issue for them and they desperately don't want to talk about January 6th and they desperately don't want to talk about abortion.
Rachel: Well, this has been great. It's always great to have you on. We do have to end with some fun, rapid fire questions. Are you ready?
Sarah: I'm ready.
Rachel: If you were elected president, what is the first piece of legislation you would want to pass?
Sarah: Comprehensive immigration reform. It's the issue that made Donald Trump. It's the issue that's tearing us apart as a country. I think that if you, instead of being able to demagogue, speaking of Ron DeSantis, this was something that we actually solved in a way that showed we were both a nation of laws and a nation of grace and a nation that, you know, wants people to be here but in sort of an orderly, non-chaotic way, I think we could do something to stem the tide of right wing populism that we're sort of seeing.
Rachel: What is your favorite thing to do with your kids on the weekends?
Sarah: Oh, well, so I played college softball. You may not know. I mean, I know I'm a lesbian, so it's redundant, but like, I played college softball. And so my kid now, my six year old, is super into baseball and it's so fun to go to his baseball games and like throw the ball with him.
Rachel: Ugh, there's nothing more fun.
Sarah: Yeah, the best.
Rachel: So running these focus groups and engaging so deeply with politics all the time can be stressful. What do you do for self-care?
Sarah: Is Twitter self-care?
Rachel: Debatable! Debatable.
Sarah: Haha.
Rachel: Yes, I, I understand. Speaking of stress, what's your favorite thing to drink after a long day?
Sarah: Okay, so I just, I love Old Fashioneds. All kinds of Old Fashioneds. I experiment with different kinds. I love making them for other people. I love the ritual of how you make them. So that's my, that's my fave, it's my go-to.
Rachel: Also a good choice. And you know, Alex and I'll come over anytime. So what's one thing you've heard lately in your focus group that gives you hope?
Sarah: Aw. Well, you know, I'll say this, generally, I'm gonna say a general thing, which is, you know, a lot of time I listen to a lot of Trump voters and a lot of people who say a lot of things that I disagree with and don't care for, but a lot of times those people like work at animal shelters and take care of their sick parents. And I think it helps for me to remember that people are sort of generally good and that they have different information. Like there's different information that they have that makes them feel the way that they do. And that's why we need to show each other grace and continue to plug away.
And I just want to say, I really admire what you're doing, where you're out there on the road really talking to people. Cause I think that's the thing that people do the least of, right? Like the hard stuff. You gotta go get in front of people, you gotta talk to people. You gotta actually try to persuade people. That's, that's the thing you gotta do. So I appreciate that work.
Rachel: Well, thank you. And, and I think it's also important to encourage the people who are doing that, you know, and, and listen to each other, which is, again, what you do. I'm a big fan.
So that's the end of our Rapid Fire questions. And where can people go to find out more about you and your work?
Sarah: I do a lot of different things. I've got my Republican Accountability Project. I got The Bulwark, but the best thing I, I would love it if you go become a subscriber to Bulwark+, so you can hear my Focus Group podcast.
Rachel: I do! I’m a subscriber.
Sarah: I appreciate it.
Rachel: It's been great talking with you. Thank you so much for coming back to The Suburban Women Problem.
Sarah: I love it. Thanks for having me.
BREAK
Amanda: Welcome back everyone. Rachel, I loved your interview with Sarah Longwell. It was really interesting. Let me caveat, I mostly loved your interview with Sarah Longwell, but when I heard the part about Ohio women really liking Tim Ryan, but she still thinks JD Vance is gonna win by a point or two. Ahhh! Ladies!
Rachel: Yeah, that was a real–
Amanda: That was hard, guys.
Rachel: That was rough. But she hasn't been to Ohio and I have. And you're there. And I have to say, I'm not so sure.
Jasmine: I also think that you made a good point earlier, Rachel, that a lot of these polls– and I mean, this is different because these are like focus groups–but I think a lot of the polls miss the newly registered voters that haven't really gotten caught up in… “Let's see what these people are thinking.”
Honestly, I think any Republican that is polling within a couple of points of a Democrat, even if they're ahead by a couple of points, I think they should really be careful. Cause that couple of points is within the margin of error and that margin of error is new voters that are not getting polled. And I think those people are leaning our way.
Amanda: Yeah. So Nate Silver said this, why we got it so wrong in 2016 is that Trump was able to get people out to vote who weren't usual voters. Right. And he was able to really energize them. And polls aren't made for that. Polls, exactly as you said Jasmine, they are made to look at the likely voters, how are they likely to vote? But there's a lot of new people registering, mostly women by the way. And I don't think we have a good grasp of how that's gonna affect the election. And I think Kansas said a little bit about that. So I am feeling confident for Tim Ryan, maybe I'm being a little optimistic and Pollyanna-ish.
Rachel: And didn't you think it was interesting– and I'm not there, but you are– like the way they reacted to the whole like opioid you know, scam charity? Because a lot of people in Ohio know someone who's been affected by opioids and he had this charity and he never helped anyone. So I feel like this is sort of a theme for Republicans of, like, fake charities, right?
But I don't want to end on this. I want to end on our Toast to Joy. We need to end on something positive. We gotta just go hard for five more weeks, so we need some motivation and something happy to talk about. So, Amanda, what is your Toast to Joy this week?
Amanda: All right. My Toast to Joy has to be to my daughter Nora, who got to go to the White House with my husband.
Jasmine: Oh, I saw the picture. That was so cute.
Amanda: She was so excited. I will say she was a tiny bit disappointed cause she really wanted to meet Kamala Harris and she met, as she calls him, the second man. So she got to meet the second man, Kamala's husband. And she got to meet, you know, Merrick Garland and she got to see the president, hear the president talk.
She was right up in the front row. Casey was like, “all the Jewish grandmas”... So it was for a Rosh Hashanah celebration, the first one that they've done at the White House. And Casey said all the Jewish grandmothers were so good and like got her up to the front so she could be in the front row and see everything. And so it was an amazing experience. She absolutely loved it.
Although she was a little disappointed because she said she wanted to see the bedroom, so she would know one day where she would be sleeping.
Jasmine: I love that, honestly. That's amazing. That is a whole vibe right there. I love that.
Rachel: Love it.
Amanda: All right, Jasmine, what is your Toast to Joy?
Jasmine: So I spent a little bit of time, very, very small amount of time, so don't get mad at me people for taking a day off of the campaign trail, to go up to CBC. It was still campaigning, but in a different way. CBC is the Congressional Black Caucus and they have their annual conference every year, and I went up and I got to finally meet people that I have either spoken to by email or maybe seen on Zoom, I finally got to meet them in person and have conversations with them.
I was there for a very short time cause I am on the campaign trail, so I didn't get to do the entire conference, but for the short amount of time that I was there, just had an amazing time.
Amanda: Oh my God, I love seeing the pictures and I hate that you have to apologize for being there for a day.
Jasmine: I know. It was only like a day. All right, Rachel, what's your Toast to Joy?
Rachel: My Toast to Joy this week is just surviving another week of travel. To surviving, but also to all the working parents out there, it's hard. And just for the people who are getting it done, whether it's in politics or something maybe a little bit more wholesome, just you know, jobs that people have to work to make money, to pay their mortgages, et cetera. I'm thankful to have a partner and friends who say, “No, you have to do this. Don't, don't say no.” And I hope everyone has listened to the special episode that came out to the kitchen table conversation that came out on Saturday and–
Amanda: Oh, it was great. I loved it.
Rachel: Thank you. We're gonna have a few more and I've, I've learned so much. I've been so inspired. And I hope that's what we're translating, that this is a movement. And you know, I hope it's giving other people energy and inspiration to do their part and to know you're not alone. So get out there and vote, make sure your voice is heard, and get out there and talk to your friends.
And if you heard the podcast last week, you know that we've started a new segment at the end of each episode on voting. Even if we've won all the hearts and minds, none of it will matter unless everyone votes. Today our advice is to vote as early as possible in your state. Early voting increases voter turnout, it can prevent long lines of polling stations, and it helps people who have to work or who have kids or elderly family members to take care of. So look up the early voting laws in your state, tell everyone you know when you're going, and encourage them to vote early too.
Thank you so much for listening and for joining us again today. We will see you again next week on another episode of The Suburban Women Problem.