Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financials is a favorite across the globe among our analysts. Fourth, improving 2026 consensus GDP forecasts ...
Jun 30, 2025•6 min•Season 9Ep. 17
For all my Buy-side friends - If you find our research and podcast helpful, we'd appreciate your vote in Portfolio Strategy in this year's Extel/II survey (www.extelinsights.com/voting). Voting is open until Friday, June 27th. Listen to this episode for a recap of our biggest call of the year... Or watch my video message - https://players.brightcove.net/6021289101001/VyvCc9BZx_default/index.html?videoId=6374546435112
Jun 25, 2025•3 min•Season 9Ep. 16
The big things you need to know: First, solid earnings stats are in place as US equity investors wait for the onset of 2Q25 reporting season. Second, the latest Business Roundtable survey highlighted weaker corporate vibes relative to March, echoing the tone in last week’s earnings call transcripts to some degree for Russell 3000 companies, where cost containment discussions jumped out to us. Third, we recap our views on how we’re thinking about the recent developments in the Middle East from a ...
Jun 23, 2025•7 min•Season 9Ep. 15
The big things you need to know: First, the conflict in the Middle East comes at a complicated time for the US equity market, as our sentiment and seasonality work has been suggesting stock prices could keep moving up, while our valuation/earnings and GDP analysis has been suggesting that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. We highlight the three potential challenges we see for the US equity market from this conflict, which we are monitoring closely. Second, we revisit our four tiers of...
Jun 16, 2025•6 min•Season 9Ep. 14
The big things you need to know: First, consensus expectations for 2026 are inching up for S&P 500 EPS in a broad based way, a positive data point for the stock market but a slight one. Second, net bulls on the AAII survey have moved up sharply, and formally entered a less robust forward return environment last week. Third, the seasonal playbook reminds us that in recent years June and July have tended to be strong for the S&P 500 but that the transition into fall has been tricky with de...
Jun 10, 2025•6 min•Season 9Ep. 13
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. In this special edition, Lori is joined by her colleagues Amy Wu Silverman (RBC Derivatives Strategist) and Ben Fisher (RBC Midwest Sales, who works closely with the firm's macro strategists). They discuss the current, messy state of the US equity market and the pickles investors are finding themselves in. Ben moderates the d...
Jun 06, 2025•30 min•Season 9Ep. 12
The big things you need to know: First, we are modestly revising our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target, taking it up 3% to 5,730 from 5,550. Our valuation and earnings models drive this number. Second, we view sentiment as the main risk to our call. Even though it’s been melting up in recent weeks, our sentiment model (based on AAII net bulls) is still the most constructive one in our price target toolkit, and our analysis of S&P 500 moves off the lows of the major post GFC drawdowns indicate...
Jun 02, 2025•8 min•Season 9Ep. 10
The big things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 EPS backdrop has stabilized, but we still anticipate further downward revisions for 2025 S&P 500 EPS. After a preliminary model refresh, we are maintaining our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is below the bottom-up consensus of $265. Second, we’ve updated our S&P 500 valuation model to reflect updated RBC house views on key macro variables like interest rates and inflation. It suggests that last week’s gap up in the sto...
May 19, 2025•6 min•Season 9Ep. 9
The big things you need to know: First, it was another week of stabilization on the earnings stats we track, helping to support the recent stabilization in equity market pricing. Second, there was a little less conversation about tariffs in last week’s earnings calls, which left some additional room for discussions on the health of the consumer and the impacts of non-tariff policy changes. Third, in our other weekly updates, the thing that jumps out is that when we bake in current consensus assu...
May 05, 2025•8 min•Season 9Ep. 8
The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment has stabilized a bit, helping stock prices find some footing for the moment. Second, we run through our thoughts on what we learned from last week’s earnings calls. We think there are two different perspectives at play on the consumer, which may be adding to investor confusion. We exited the week seeing managing tariff impacts as a work in progress, but with a greater appreciation of the work that has been done....
Apr 28, 2025•8 min•Season 9Ep. 7
The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment is at an important crossroads, with the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions having fallen to 30%. Second, what we read in S&P 500 earnings call transcripts last week keeps us in the camp that recession is not a foregone conclusion, makes us concerned that any adverse impacts from tariffs may be felt a little later in the year or even next year, and pushes us toward the idea that the consumer is holding up but still hasn’t been unsc...
Apr 22, 2025•7 min•Season 9Ep. 6
The big things you need to know: First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in. Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarching takeaway from our reading is that recession is not yet a foregone conclusion but also that US...
Apr 14, 2025•8 min•Season 9Ep. 5
The big things you need to know: First, shortly after midnight on Friday morning, we cut our S&P 500 EPS forecast for 2025 to $258 and our YE 2025 price target to 5,550 – the price target cut was something we’d been telegraphing we’d do if the drawdown in the index broke 10% from peak for quite some time, which it did on Thursday. Second, as the stock market has continued to gap down, we’ve continued to highlight our tiers of fear framework for how far US equities could decline in different ...
Apr 07, 2025•8 min•Season 9Ep. 4
The big things you need to know: The team tackles some of the top questions in consumer-related conversations today, including what their company and industry level interactions and data have been telling them about the current state of the consumer, whether the consumer has been retreating or simply shifting their spend, what's happening in different consumer cohorts, what they think the biggest challenges are for the consumer at the moment, and how their companies are managing around tariffs. ...
Apr 01, 2025•31 min•Season 9Ep. 3
The big things you need to know: First, trends in investor vibes were mixed last week, both in our quant work as well as last week’s investor conversations. Second, the median forward P/E for the S&P 500 has fallen sharply but remains well above average. We’ve also not yet seen significant adjustments to consensus EPS forecasts, which seems likely to keep confidence in P/E analysis low for now. Third, Small Caps (which have seen a greater degree of valuation correction) have continued to out...
Mar 24, 2025•6 min•Season 9Ep. 2
The big things you need to know: We’ve lowered our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600, We’ve lowered our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $264 from $271. Among other adjustments, our new price target and EPS forecast embed the updated views of RBC’s Economics and Rates strategy team which were released last week. We have updated our year-end 2025 bear case for the S&P 500, which we’ve lowered from 5,775 to 5,550. Fourth, some of the vibes we've been tracking are starting to...
Mar 17, 2025•7 min•Season 9Ep. 1
RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we bring you a special edition of the podcast, recorded live at the RBC Financial institutions conference on March 5th, 2025. Ben Fisher (US Equity Sales, Midwest & Macro Sales Specialist) moderates a discussion with Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy) and Amy Wu Silverman (Derivatives Strategist) on th...
Mar 09, 2025•25 min•Season 8Ep. 25
The big things you need to know: First, we review our basic framework for thinking about drawdowns in US equities, a topic that’s been coming up in client meetings over the past few weeks, as investor uncertainty regarding the economy has increased. Second, we have refreshed the math behind our YE 2025 bear case of 5,775, specifically our valuation/EPS stress test. Third, we run through our latest updates on the vibes breakdown in the US, where investor sentiment has plunged to crisis lows on on...
Mar 03, 2025•10 min•Season 8Ep. 24
The big things you need to know: First, we found more evidence of weakening investor and consumer vibes in last week’s data updates, while getting a mostly positive data point on corporate vibes, and a flattening in political vibes. Second, the rotation of funds flows from US equities to bonds and European equities strengthened last week.
Feb 24, 2025•8 min•Season 8Ep. 23
The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week’s earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in the latest updates from the AAII investor survey, the NFIB Small Business sentiment survey update, ...
Feb 18, 2025•7 min•Season 8Ep. 22
The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, the earnings backdrop has softened a bit on the stats for the broader US equity market, and has also justified the rotation in performance leadership that has been seen. Second, company commentary in last week’s earnings calls highlighted the uncertain optimism that is driving US equity market performance at the moment. Third, weakness in investor sentiment and a miss on consumer sentiment stand out in our high frequency up...
Feb 10, 2025•8 min•Season 8Ep. 21
The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, 4Q24 earnings season looks solid on the stats so far. Second, bulls bounced back in the weekly AAII survey last week, as US equity flows stabilized.
Jan 27, 2025•5 min•Season 8Ep. 20
The big things you need to know: First, the initial batch of 4Q24 earnings call commentary, which is mostly from Financials, highlights the optimism and uncertainty that are both embedded in the current outlook for stocks. Second, investor sentiment on the AAII survey continued to slip last week despite stabilization in the S&P 500 itself. Third, we continue to see some signs of mild rotation affecting US equity funds flows where we continue to see a loss of momentum. At the same time, we ar...
Jan 21, 2025•7 min•Season 8Ep. 19
The big things you need to know: First, we review our thoughts on last Friday's jobs report and reaction in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Second, with 4Q24 reporting season getting underway, we review what we’re listening for in S&P 500 company earnings calls. Third, we run through updates on other high frequency indicators, including a new chart comparing market cap and net income concentration for the biggest names in the S&P 500.
Jan 13, 2025•8 min•Season 8Ep. 18
The big things you need to know: Today in the podcast, an update on our S&P 500 sector outlook for 2025, and the results of the quarterly RBC analyst survey that we just updated in late December. Three big things you need to know: First, globally – taking into account the views of our analysts in all of our coverage regions -- our analysts tilt constructive on performance, valuations and demand, but have more mixed/neutral views on the US and non-US political backdrops. Second, our work on g...
Jan 09, 2025•6 min•Season 8Ep. 17
The big things you need to know: First, modest downward revisions have returned to bottom-up consensus S&P 500 EPS forecasts. Second, frothy US equity market sentiment has been a problem for the US equity market, but our work suggests that many investors have become cognizant of this problem and that it is starting to self-correct. Third, outside of the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500, a number of our valuation indicators have started to contract. Fourth, US equity funds flows de...
Jan 06, 2025•5 min•Season 8Ep. 16
The format of this special edition of RBC’s Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these ...
Dec 24, 2024•25 min•Season 8Ep. 15
The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, positioning in US equity futures per the weekly CFTC data has taken a tiny hit. Second, consensus US GDP forecasts have moved up, along with consensus Fed Funds and 10-year yield forecasts. Third, other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators include the continued decline in bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 operating margin forecasts, geographical equity fund flow dynamics, and recent sharp inflows into ...
Dec 09, 2024•6 min•Season 8Ep. 14
Today in the podcast: Our thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 sectors in 2025, with a focus on those where we've made changes to our view. The big things you need to know: First, we have upgraded Communication Services from market weight to overweight. Second, we are downgrading Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we are downgrading Materials from overweight to market weight.
Dec 04, 2024•6 min•Season 8Ep. 13
Today in the podcast: Highlights from our 2025 US Equity Market outlook, in which we reviewed the top 10 things we’re thinking about as the new year comes into view. We won’t go through all ten, but are going to run through some of the more important highlights regarding our broader market call. The big things you need to know: First, our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target is 6,600 – that’s our base case; we also run through our bear case of 5,775. Second, sentiment is modestly constructive on a 1...
Nov 26, 2024•11 min•Season 8Ep. 12
