¶ Intro / Opening
Ninety five miles an hour riding too his head.
He hopped down.
First with the lump bonius face, and on the very next pitch he up and stole second phase.
With gretest speed.
He wasn't born, he had yes uniform.
All right, welcome to episode Neil Kotts of the Prospect b Side Podcast. That's episode forty six. You all right with Neil Katz there? Yeah?
Are we just gonna get more and more esoteric with it? We need to just get deeper and deeper into the archives.
Well, we can't go we can't go like pretty boy with it right. We can't go bat or maddingly or with good point good point plus. You know what Neil Kotts has on those cats is that he was a member of the greatest team of our lifetimes and those other fellows were not what two thousand have White Sox, dude.
The greatest team of our lifetimes.
The greatest single season team of our lifetimes. Yes, how do you? Okay?
You gotta explain that one a little more to me that why is that other than your own fandom? Why is that the greatest team?
Wired wire first place, completely dominated. They used six starting pitchers, the whole season. They lost once in the playoffs, and mind you, they went four complete games in a row. They absolutely wiped the floor with everybody. No one could touch them. I don't remember how many games they want, one hundred and some, but most dominant season of anyone in our lifetimes, in my opinion, Yeah, I don't know.
I mean, I think in our lifetimes we also had the two thousand and one Mariners that put up the record for most wins in a season. We also had they.
Also didn't win a championship.
But I think you know enough about baseball that like, the playoff winner is not the best team a lot of the time.
Well, I mean, and.
It's a crash like who can It's definitely not. It's a crapshoot who got hot and for a couple of weeks, Like I think the playoffs, the playoff winner in baseball is a really fun thing. And I think it's a fun tournament because it's unpredictable. It's not like the NBA Finals, when you have the best team, you're making the finals every time and unless you run into another all time great team, you're gonna win. Baseball is different, and I
think that's a feature, not a bug. But I also think that the discourse around you're not an all time great team unless you win the championship is silly. Like the Braves won in twenty twenty one the World Series, and their teams the past three years have all for sure been better teams than the team that won the World Series, And I think that that's like indicative of
the way that baseball shakes out. They had like a good team that got hot and beat a couple of really good teams in the playoffs, but they were not a great team, and they've had some great teams since. So I mean, I just think that's like.
The point is to be the best team in the tournament. That is the goal. Obviously you have to get to the tournament. But regardless of all.
Of that, winning the tournament does not mean that you're the best team in the tournament. I think that's what I'm saying is that it's are you the best team when you lose a season series against another team, like and that's you know, fourteen games.
This is where the nerdiness of baseball just gets way beyond me, Like I understand what you're saying, like in a rodeo sense, maybe they weren't the best team or whatever. But you play the game on the field, you win on the field. It is the tournament that you have to win if you want to get the trophy. But that's the fairest or the greatest measurement.
That's potological, right, Like that's saying they're the best because they're the best. And I think that the definition of the best players and the best teams are what's the greatest collection of talent and the way that we can best express that or best understand how that talent's expressed is in scoring the most runs and preventing the most runs. So teams that have the greatest pithag in history or the greatest run differential in history, those are the teams
that are the most talented. Sometimes those teams win in older eras they tended to win a lot more often in our current era, like with the wild card era, that those teams absolutely can lose in a five game series and a seven game series back to back to back. You know, it's like looking at the past decade of the Dodgers, you know, especially before last year, and being like, oh, well, they have one short season championship, Like are they the
best team of the last ten years. Like, they're unquestionably the best team of the last ten years. They've blown everybody out of the water. The only other team that has an even like remote argument for it is the Houston Astros, and they also like cheated the shit out of it for a couple of those years. So I don't think that for me, you would look at the past ten years and argue anybody else other than the
Dodgers as the best team. And they've just now won quote unquote a real world series title, you know, And that's where it's like, I think that's a different definition.
The problem with your side of it is though you're measuring everything equally, like a home run in the seventh inning back in April is not as meaningful as a home run in October. Like I believe in CPA, and I believe that baseball is a lot about timing. A lot of it is timing, and not all home runs, not all runs, not all runs given up are created equally, right.
I don't disagree with that. And that's why the single highest CPA events are always in the playoffs, because that's closer to the winner go home stage. But that's different from saying they're the best players. Like David Freese in two thousand and whatever that was thirteen, wasn't the best player, He wasn't the best player on his team. He wasn't best player in the playoffs.
But he wracked up the CPA.
Yeah, so you're saying he's the best player of all time, like he's he's the greatest.
I'm saying he was the best player at that time in that moment.
I just don't think that that's actually true. Like he had one of the most So win probability is the It's the only thing that matters championship. Probability is the only thing that matters.
Winning is all that matters, baby and right.
But the way you win is with good players, Like that's That's what I'm saying, is that the definition of of what the best team is is having the best players, not who won the last game. And I think that the tournament is fun because of that uncertainty. That's a feature, not a bug. But it's not the same thing as they're the best team.
Probability and reality are not the same things, right. I understand, you make the best calculated measurements, this will give you the best odds. But when it comes down to it, it's just who is the best at that time, in that moment, and the O five White Sox with the best team in the regular season and the postseason, and your cute little Mariners weren't that. So I'm sticking to my guns here, best team of our lifetime, just single season.
Your your favorite team? That fine?
Yeah it was lightning in a bottle, but I will argue that for it for days. But that's not They're not my team anymore, man, They're not. I got the five banner back there though.
Yeah, but they they were, And that was like a formative thing for you. I get why that has stuck in there your bible.
Never see it. We'll never see a starting pitching staff like that ever. Again.
That mid have one good season?
Whatever do? They destroyed it? But AnyWho, that guy, did you do your homework this week? Did you have any epiphanies, come to any realizations, feel a little apologetic for your stance last week at all? A little bit? Now you ap? Did you watch it?
Yeah, it's a huge nothing burger.
Oh my god.
We're now recognized mister Elizondo for his opening statement.
It is my honor and privilege to testify before you on the issue of Unidentified Anomalous phenomenon formerly known as UFOs. Let me be clear, u AP are real advanced technologies not made by our government or any other government are monitoring sensitive military installations around the globe. Furthermore, the US is in possession of UAP technologies, as are some of our adversaries. Although much of my government work on the
UAP subject still remains classified. Excessive secrecy has led to grave misdeeds against loyal civil servants, military personnel, and the public, all to hide the fact that we are not alone in the cosmos.
You'll come around eventually. I'll save you a seat on the ship. Don't worry, my friend, I got you. But what the hell are we doing? We're talking about We're doing the B side show here. We're talking about zero one that maybe not created yet on fan tracks prospects. This will be our fifth out of six installments, going division by division, The rook and I each pick a hitter and a pitcher from each organization that we think might pop up a little bit this year or gain
some more dynasty utility. Sometimes we come to the same player, and that's always kind of fun and neat. But I think that's surmises it all right, right, Matt. Indeed it is so the Al East talk about it's like the prettiest of pretty boys visions, huh, spending lots of money, lots of fans wastemarter fans out here. But I thought this was a fun one, Matt. I think there's some of my favorite maybe my top arm in my top bat out of all the b sides, reside in this division.
But I could see it. There's some good ones.
Who do you want to start with? What team you want to start with?
Start with the what I think is the least interesting, which is which is Tampa for me?
Okay, I was going to say Red Sox for that, but.
Alright, second least is a boss and for sure, but.
Tampa Bay Ray's bats. Who you got? Who'd you land on?
Well, you know it's worth giving us some props for our Tampa picks last year, because I thought those were pretty good. Chandler Simpson turned in an awesome year and stole one hundred some bases, struck out less than ten percent of the time, walked in an average amount of time, put up a one forty WRC plus and I think now is starting to get some love, although I think
he's still under owned. When I looked it was like in your points leagues that penalize K's and especially in row leagues like as a as a speed option, he seems under own still. But that was a good one. I was really hoping that because the Rays are such a deep smart system, that they were going to have some of these underappreciated guys.
Well.
One thing they did is they acquired a bunch of guys that we've talked about from other systems that we thought were pretty interesting, and Matt Korvath, Matthew Etzel. I don't know how many other guys that they got, but quite a few, but all of them have a little bit of popularity, whether because like it's that the old Sam Miller tweet, I love this trade for the Rays. Who they get, who they give up, and people just
assume that the Rays know what they're doing. But I was really struggling to find some good options at those zero and one percent range, especially on the back side.
I agree.
I looked at a couple of different dudes that were on the younger side, but couldn't wrap my head around their foremance like guys that were decent Narcisso Polanco was a guy that I looked at as like, he's kind of young, he's been okay, has some traits that I like, but he was still kind of average as a nineteen year old and in low A, And I don't even feel that much better about the guy that I landed on, which is on hell Mateo Mateo, like super similar in
lots of ways. His line is almost identical to Polanco's. He went to twenty four three, twenty three, three forty four, and he spent the whole year at a ball, so that was all low A as a nineteen year old. He also struck out twenty five percent of the time, which is like kind of high, especially for what I
like to look for. He did walk a decent amount, swiped twenty six bags, popped six homers, but he also didn't hit a homer for like the last two months of the season, which was a little concerning about is there something wrong here? Is the power just really not there? When I watched him earlier in the year, I was like, Oh, this is sort of an interesting teenager. Maybe he's going to get to ten homers. And there's a little more projection left on the bone and it might just take
a little time for him to get there. You know, he's six ' one, reasonably well built. I like some things about his swing, although it seemed like he got eaten up sliders away and so that wasn't that was a little bit discouraging to me. It's more that he's young enough, has shown enough potential that I'm like, and I didn't see anybody else that I wanted to bet on more. So I'm going with Matteo here. Don't feel
great about it. I mean, he's again young, has some talent, and we'll see what he does at Bowling Green next year. But there's definitely some flaws here and it wasn't super exciting.
Olivia going like a little of my default here, just like pick a teenager and a ball. Yeah, I don't know. Sometimes I don't think I had that before, have you.
I'm not really And I looked at a couple of their older guys to see, you know, like Seymour was Bob Seymour was one that I think was like at one percent, and I thought maybe he was going to get looked at in the rule five. But I was like, no the for him, at least the upside didn't seem there. Like he seemed like a blow average bat, but like
¶ Connor Hujsak
high probability and as a corner guy, probably not going to play.
So I think Mateo and Polanco, those were two of my last three finalists here, so we weren't too far off. But I ended up going the first year player route. Oh okay, we're not We're talking in pretty small sample size.
This is not a player that I was familiar with as an amateur, but I'm going I'm not really totally sure how to say his name, Matt, but Connor huge sack huge, huge, which really cool, but Connor huge, huge, sick, I think, because how I heard them say it, But it's h u J sak all right, he's an outfielder. How would you say that name?
Yeah, you sick?
I think. He started off his college career at VCU and then transferred to Mississippi State the last two seasons. The Rays popped him in the thirteenth round four one hundred and fifty K listened at six ' two, good sized fella, and shared the video with you there. I was just kind of impressed with his ability to he hit some home runs to all fields. I like to look at the swings of all of those just twenty one games played appearances, he hit four home runs, he
swiped five bags. I don't really know if stolen bases are gonna be a big part of his future. Of this is just you know, a little wiser baseball player taking advantage of some A ball guys didn't get caught. Walked seven percent of the time, struck out twenty four percent of the time. But you know, decent little debut here to seventy seven three, twenty six, five, eighteen. I know I caught. I'm not even maybe the BA guys.
Last couple of weeks I've been listening to their draft class review podcasts, and I think they noted that there was a couple of evs by him over one hundred and ten during his pro debut. So yeah, I don't know, just kind of caught a guy. But I kind of liked the look of his fairly, you know, simple looking stroke up there. He's got a little bit of a I don't know, how do you say it, a little bit of like a rounded out step, but it's not real big and everything like that. Yeah, I don't know,
and now his home runs. What I say he popped four of them, three of them were in one game.
Wow.
Yeah, yeah, so you know it was just a concentrated couple of days of the home run output. But yeah, I don't know a guy who was playing some center field as well. That guy maybe doesn't really look like a center fielder if you're just being superficial about it. But Connor huge Sack, huge sick, I mean eighty grade name and I'll throw them out there as my rais B side this year? Solid solid?
Did he end up only a little bit? I caught a couple of his games late in the season, but I can't say he stood out when I was just scrolling through guys.
And I don't know if I mentioned he's right handed, I'll share videos. I got videos of his home runs here on Twitter at Pitching Specs. Check that out if you if you want to take a look at what we're trying to talk about.
Here, Yeah, who did you go for for your arm?
Yeah, I'm kind of into my arm here quite a bit. But let's let's look at their system here real quick, Matt. The pretty boys. There's kind of a lot of pretty boys in this system. Yell at me if somebody got traded here recently. But Dylan LESCo thirty one percent, Santiago Suarez fourteen percent, Carut twelve percent, Ty Johnson ten, Gary Gil hill Am I picked from last year, ten, pul Wilcox ten, Ian Seymour ten, Jackson Baumeister, ten, Brody Hopkins eight.
Nick Bitsko is he even like a professional baseball player anymore? I have no idea.
I couldn't tell you.
Yeah, seven percent, tre j Goss three percent, Trevor Martin, Joe Rock three percent, Trevor Harrison two percent, and I think Owen Wild I don't know. I have two to one percent here, so I don't know. Oh, he was two percent of the beginning of September, one percent at the end. But you know that's a that's a healthy slew of somewhat, you know, having some dynasty love out there. But I'm
¶ Jose Urbina
going with another teenager, Matt eighteen year old and a ball Jose Orbina. Are you familiar.
I saw a little bit of him.
Yeah, yeah, I had to hit up Clegg today.
Little guy right like smaller, smaller frame.
No, no, no, no. He was one percent roster, And so there's some folks on there. I think he was twenty ninth on Pipeline's list the last time I checked. He was eighteen point eight years old last his last start, but he's listed at six three. Maybe maybe that's a little bit generous, but I know that the story is with her being that he You know, they signed what he signed in twenty twenty three, so not that long ago.
After he signed, there was like a big growth spurt here, so got much taller and the velocity is like really ticked up. Venezuelan. He was signed for just two hundred and ten K. Last year, he pitched forty eight complex innings and then just seventeen a ball innings, four appearances, four starts eer A five twenty nine but a whip of one point zero six in a ball here four two two x fip struck out just eighteen point two percent, walked six point one percent, which was nice because in
a complex it was at twelve percent. Now, granted, again this is very small sample size, but I did not mind his execution. Now granted, I think his attack was fairly simple, and my watches it was a good fastball and slider. I think he was just kind of generically throwing up in the zone for strikes, but doing that
consistently and doing that well. I kind of wonder I'd love to hear about his slider shape a little bit because I wonder if it's one that kind of gets some ride, like erkulanis that we were like kind of talking about. Yeah, but just playing his ninety five ninety six mile per hour fastball within that firm mid mid eighties slider just up in the zone was just really kind of dominating these guys. He did throw in what I thought was a pretty good looking curveball sometimes and
then there was a change up. I think the change up is very much a developmental pitch at this time. I think the ones that I caught there was like they were executed so poorly. You couldn't even like look at this shape, like it was just like hitting the dirt or something, you know what I mean. So I think that's very much a work in progress. Yeah, yeah, four, start saying at a ball. He went four and three of them five and one. You know, it didn't get really hit up too much. There was one one out he
gave up five to turns, but he earned. But he didn't walk more than two in an outing, struck out three, two, two, and five. And now he did give up some home runs. I know a couple of those were just and he was just trying to get some fastballs up in the zone and he just got him over the meat of the plate. But you can see the operation, like the video that I shared, it's, I mean, it's fairly easy ninety six I think.
Is it a good ninety six though? I mean like he's in low A against a bunch of bitty teenagers and he pushed up twenty percent of guys, Like, what's what's up with that?
I think in part was the sequence of pitching pitches, like, oh there was a hit a ble ninety six over the heart of the plate here and they got some wood on it. You know, it's very much just it's this is very much eyeballs to me, not really so much. Numbers is very minuscule sample size, right, but what was his k rate in the complex? Twenty one point seven percent,
so not much higher. But I mean, if you wanted to, if we rewind a year ago, like watching Gary gil Hill like way more excited about her being and stuff than Gary gil Hill's at that time. And we know we know that the rays will sharpen a you know, a lot of times I think they like to focus on on one weapon there, guys, and really get the most out of that one pitch that they can. But I don't know an eighteen year old ball of clay here in this system that I I think could very
well pop up this year. Jose Rbina, It's.
An interesting one, you know. Like I said, I think there's some he's got some potential in there. I'm curious why the results haven't been there. I'm going again more towards my pensiont I'm going older and to the near,
¶ Logan Workman
to the big arms here, I'm picking Logan Workman. I think I might have taken Wild if i'd known he was at one percent, because when I looked, I thought it was like three or four. So I might slightly prefer Wild in a vacuum, just a little bit younger, and I think might have a little touch, more touch, more upside in the long run. I thought he was really good, and we talked a bit about him coming out of the draft last year, so don't need to
belabor that. But among the really interesting arms, you listed off a bunch of them, you know, Ian Seymour had a phenomenal triple A run at that ended in Triple A this year. Yaniel Corrett, he was awesome too. Oh and Wild. I thought was a good get from the O's this year. Hi Johnson, Brody Hopkins also in trade. Like they had a lot of good pitchers that had really good seasons too, but Workmen stood out for me as in this B side range, I think he was
either zero or one percent when I looked. He's spent a lot of the year in TRIPA, so we got to see a lot of data on him, and so it was really fun digging into what he had there. His fastballs ninety to ninety five, but it actually plays better than that, I think, And I actually think he got a little unlucky in his results this year based on some of the pitch shapes and the amount of
swinging strikes that he was getting. He really commanded that fastball well and so even though he's like averaging it in ninety two to ninety three, I think that's playing up pretty consistently. He's also got a change up that he goes to and throws quite a lot, and I thought was quite a good pitch. I think he liked it his second most after his fastball, and then he also was a slider and cutter, but those blended a
little bit. For me, I thought they could get a little bit close to each other, and with you know, a little bit sharper execution, he might separate those a bit more. Especially on the slider. I thought that sometimes he would lose the action, so rather than getting that good sharp sweeping bite that it would float, he would kind of get under it, and I think he let
that get hit sometimes. Did also like watching him start to start, especially in Tirpla with the stack cast data, you could see him adjust his approach and his pitch mix from start to start. Whereas a lot of guys you throw them on enough and you're like they're going to be fifty percent fastballs, twenty five percent sliders, ten percent curveballs, and ten percent change ups. Workman start to start he would change how he was attacking hitters and
how he was attacking lineups. He didn't get picked in the Rule five, and he was eligible this year. I thought he had an outside chance to and I think he popped up on ba's Rule five draft prep list that they thought he might get a look from a team that wanted a depth starter. I think that there's not a ton of upside here. He looks like a high probability back end started to me. But it looks good enough that I think he's going to get that shot.
And whether that ends up being with Tampa or he ends up somewhere else in trade or in free agency, I'm not sure. But Logan Workman for me, was my favorite of the one percent arms here, and I do think there's a lot to like about his pitch mix and his approach.
Yeah, it was kind of surprised to see that he was zero percent rostered in September, because I know what would that be the twenty twenty three AFL season he was, there was some buzz and some talk about Logan Workmen, so I guess folks just didn't hang on to that
through the year. Yeah, Matt, just one more thing I wanted to say about Urbina, Like, you know, you watch, like I mentioned last week, starting to think more about Like, Okay, I watched these young international teenage prospects, right pitching prospects, and you can kind of watch them side by side with some first round prep arms that could taken and I'm like, man, this Urbina's like just seems so much better to me than some first round prep arms that
have been taken lately, So I don't know for whatever that's worth. I was just kind of thinking about that. I was like, man, this guy would probably be like a first second round pick if that's how it had to be. But what do I know about that stuff?
All right? The Boston Red Sox, their most popular arms are Dick Fitz thirteen percent, well, Wickleman Gonzalez just got traded, so he was at ten percent, where Donnie Manegro ten percent, Luis Paralis eight percent, David Sanlin also just got traded six percent, Jetkson Payez three percent, your boy from last year, Isaac Coffee three percent, and then Elmer Rodriguez Cruz he
also got traded at two percent. Everybody else was zero one percent here, And I will admit that my guy might be number thirty on my thirty B side arms I had if I had to line them all up, I did not come away. I don't know, I'm super
excited about anybody here at this roster percentage. Maybe it would have been wiser to go with a first year player draft arm, but they didn't really have many debut I don't think, and it's always kind of t you to know what their actual roster percentages are going to be after drafts and stuff.
But I could have could have gone Joey Gartreel based on my live looks University of Portland guy.
That's right, that's right. I've just never seen him pitch.
Also, I've also I've also heard good things about Peyton Tully. His one looks interesting.
But yeah, he's the one who's got like the like twenty foot extension rights. Yeah, have seven point three feet or something.
Picked coffee last year because he was super unusual performer. The stuff is like eighty nine and tops out at like ninety one. But I still think that that's going to play because of how weird his arm angle and approach to the plate is. I do love to start with the data and what is the data telling us? And dude punched out thirty percent of batters in double A, So I still think that he's flummoxing hitters and is
going to keep doing it. But you know, we'll see how that how that ends up as he climbs the ranks, and I'm super curious to see how that goes apparently nobody is buying it, but keeps putting up numbers. So we'll see. Looked at a couple of other guys that I think we've talked about before. Hunter Dobbins. He's one that we looked at last year, and I think some people still like I'm just not I couldn't ever get
myself that excited about it. It seems he was so much better this year than he was better, but it still just looks so back endy to me, like seventh starter. Maybe that's good enough.
I don't know. But do a lot of men look back indy too?
Yeah, a lot of pictures too. You know, I was
¶ Connelly Early
really excited about the guy that I ended up landing on, though I'm going with Connolly early. You watch much of early this year.
I did watch some earlies on my sheet here, but tell me about him because didn't spark my interest for whatever reason. But what am I missing?
Yeah?
So he's another guy that I think the Velocity readings are are kind of lying to us or tricking us, or setting us on the wrong course. I don't know if we talked about this a while ago, and I can't remember what who who said this?
Either.
So this is already a terrible start to the story. But somebody said that they think that pitching development would have been much improved if we didn't get the radar gun first, right. The radar gun was the first concrete number that we could attach to pictures in picture evaluation. You know what. With hitters, it was like, I.
Love that world. I think that sounds like a great world.
With hitters, it was like how far could they hit the ball? How fast could they run? We could measure both of those things, but we couldn't really measure how hard pitchers were throwing and how effective the pitches were with numbers. We could do it with our eyes and with the scouting reports. But once we got the radar gun,
that really like anchored people's opinions. And I think we see that's true of guys like Isaac Coffee, and I think it is true of lots of guys who like, they flashed ninety nine on the gun and they're like, oh, that's Carlos le Grange is really good, hemer Lalani is really good. Well, they can actually get guys out out, but you know they're they're really good because they can throw hard conn only early to me, it is a good example of this. I think he sits in the
low nineties. It's like ninety one average. Maybe he's a lefty, athletic, kind of six y three, prototypical pitcher looking guy, you know, off the bus kind of thing. You watch him, and if you don't, if you're not looking at the velocity, you're like, none of these fucking guys can hit this fastball. He just keeps throwing it in the middle of the plate. And sure a lot of this was at High A and Double A. He was about two thirds at High A this year and a third at Double A this year.
But he just kept throwing this low nineties fastball that if you're not kind of looking closely, you'd be like, oh, this isn't that interesting, And yet he kept punching people out with it. I think that the arm angle and extension make it play up. I think I saw some note maybe from the BA guys that it's not an IVB monster or anything. It's not like a super spinny
low a super spinny pitch. But because the angle is maybe a little lower then you would expect, it doesn't need to have great iv B to look really different. And that pitch plays like it is really really good, and he also has good command. We're not just talking about a thrower up there. He's especially of his fastball. I thought he commanded that exceptionally well in my looks, and you know, he rounds it out with a couple of different breaking balls. His slider in particular looked pretty good.
I wonder if he has kind of two like a sweepery one and a more curve gyro kind of slider, because it looked like he could go a couple of different directions with it. A change up as well, that really good. Like he got a ton of ground balls with that thing, especially later in the year, it looked like he was using it more to like people would be kind of like, oh, I'm sitting on this fastball that for some reason can't touch, and then he would throw a change up and get a softly hit ground
ball to the left side, easy out. He's really good. He was a fifth rounder out of Virginia, so Uva like big baseball school, but wasn't great there. I think was seen as like kind of a back end developmental project. I don't know whether some of this is the pitch shapes development that the red Sox did this year with Reslo and the new regime, but early to me looked
absolutely phenomenal, and he was doing it with ease. At Double A. He gave up one home run in thirty six innings at Double A, six in sixty seven at High A. Man was sixteen point four percent swinging strike rate at Double A, fifteen point seven at High A. He's punching out thirty point seven percent of batters on the year with an average league average walk rate. You know, he's among the best K minus BB guys in the miners this year, and he was doing it at the
mid to uppers for a pretty unherlded guy. You know, again, I think he was zero percent owned. He was percent Yeah, I had one percent here too. And you know how I mentioned how excited I was about Chad Patrick last week, how the sharpest guy in my favorite league is a buddy of mine. He's got Chad Patrick. Of course, when I was looking and doing my research on this at the end of the season, who has Connolly Early, same freaking guy.
So we get that guy on the pod man.
We should? We should. He'd be a fun one to come on. He's super sharp and his his his talent evaluation skills are really really good. I think Early is being massively slept on and I don't know, there's there's a couple of other arms that I'm really really excited about from this crew, but he's up there. I mean, this is I am as excited about Early on my B side arms as I am about really anybody else like he's. He is up there.
Interesting. Do you know Clegg's pretty tapped in, tuned into the red sox system and recently wrote them up. Do you know if he was on Clegg's list or if Clegg had anything any four one one on him?
No idea, no idea. I haven't looked at his ass lists.
Right well, I am not nearly as excited for mine, and this will be the last time tonight, but I am going with another teenager. I'm gonna go with young Juan Valera percent rostered. Like I said before, this is
¶ Juan Valera
if I had to line them all up, this probably number thirty on my list. But I don't think it's because of lack of talent or lack of something interesting, or lack of a way that it could work and go well. I think all thirty of my guys have
that he's listed at sixty three. He was a twenty twenty three international free agent out of the Dominican time for forty five thousand, forty and a third innings in the complex this last season, twenty three innings over seven starts able at Greenville two point three five era A one whip A three point four to eight x fIF a thirty one point one K percentage to a fifteen point six percent walk percentage ouch, but in the Complex it was nine percent, so not nearly as bad, but
again small samples. At Greenville, hitters hit one eighteen against them, got a good amount of ground balls fifty nine percent according to fangrafs, the swing strike rate of fifteen point seven percent, So like other than the walk rate, there are some pretty nice numbers in his little uh full season debut. But I will say, unlike Orbina or several others that I mentioned, the numbers were a lot prettier
than the video looks to me. But this is arm talent, right, I mean, this is a guy who can get up there ninety five. There's something that he's throwing at ninety there's a breaking ball. Mean yeah, Like the video starts off with like a backed up slider. I think that happened quite a bit. There's a fastball not I hit ninety seven, like a lot of pitchers in their system. There's a splitter being worked one right. There's a curveball, a firmer curveball at like eighty six, but maybe they
call it a slider. I don't know, a breaking ball, what have you. My looks with him is like he could very much look the part for like a batter or half a batter, but like then the non competitive pitches would just come out, you know what I mean. Like it was just way way too much for me to get like two two into him. But again we're talking about an eighteen year old ball clay here. Plenty of arm talent, not anyone that I want to rush out and roster or draft or anything like that, but
definitely one that I will keep an eye on. And yeah, I could see a guy that talented getting it together a little bit and having some more success and getting more polished. I do have to say the Red Sox system the last several years kind of like b side
in front arm. I haven't really loved a lot of guys, but they have they have had I feel like just just young teenagers in the lowers with a lot of arm talent, and they got those guys cleaned up and executing way better than I ever would have bet on guys like Juan Daniel and Canarcion guy today who got drafted in the five draft on hell Bastardo, Like, I think they were way more feral looking. Maybe they were a little bit older, but during their like A ball debuts.
So you know, I think there's some cleaning up that the Red Sox do with some guys. So I don't think that I'm gonna worry too much about his walk percentage and non competitive pitches at this juncture.
Yeah, that might be a good beat. And they've got quite a few guys that have that kind of talent and ceiling and if they can just harness the wax, I meane Mullins, is that guy, your guy from last year and he did, you know, kept punching people out this year and was okay with the walks still a little bit higher than you'd like to see.
But my hope with him is, like we're still talking about a guy who has not pitched very much over the last several years, so maybe maybe that can bring some hope. Maybe that's just a fool stream, but yeah, all right, the Bats, Red Sox Bats. I didn't come up with someone I love a ton, but I am gonna go with young Nelly Taylor. Not probably like my
¶ Nelly Taylor
kind of bet here, but I think there's some things to like and hope on. He was twenty one last year. Played center field, lefty. Listed at six foot. He was an eleventh round pick in twenty twenty three out of Junior College in Florida. One hundred and one games in A ball, ten games in High A this season. Strikeouts probably the swing and miss stuff probably the biggest, you know, wart Here twenty five point one percent on the season. It was thirty one point seven percent in his short
High A stint on the year. Nothing too remarkable on the surface, numbers two thirty three, three thirty seven, three seventy six slash. But even though he struck out more, that slash plan was much more attractive in his small high sample size two eighty nine, three forty one, five point fifty three eight home runs on the season, stole
thirty three bases on the season. But I think ultimately matt Here is like an athletic guy a strong guy, maybe just a little b side hope on a power speed Brett And I know that I'm not the only stand I think Maddy Backpack is is a Nelly Taylor hopeful too, but real strong, powerful lower half. I think he uses it well in his swing, and I don't know, maybe he was coming into his own just a little
bit down the stretch here. Not anyone I'm rostering, not anyone I am drafting, but somebody that I got my eye on, and if it goes well, I think it go really well.
Yeah. I thought similarly of Taylor. He was one of the couple that I was looking at as well. I
¶ Andy Lugo
didn't love any of the options at the low roster percentages here for Boston. I think when Boston's guys blow up, they're either really really good or they get pretty quickly. Yeah, but yeah, No, Taylor's a decent shout. I'm going to Andy Lugo for a lot of the same reasons. He's you know, a level below Nellie Taylor and similarly has decent speed, decent athlete. I'm not sure he has a
defensive home. You know, they played him all over the place already, and he's pretty young and He's played left field, third base, right field, first base, and I don't know if he's that good, and I think he's even played some second I just don't know if he's good at any of them. I watched a little bit of his decent defense, but not enough to make a real strong
case one way or the other. But given he's had a penchant for errors, I tend to think that this is kind of like they're trying to find him a home. Is one of those guys that kind of looks better than his statistical performance. I think, like you watch him swing, he's, you know, six ' two or so, kind of lean. You think maybe there's some projection there. He's still just twenty he'll be twenty one next year and likely and Hi A, I think that's kind of a it'll be
a real statement ear for Lugo. If he starts to hit for a little more power and keeps running like he does, that could be a really interesting bat here. It's pretty aggressive as a hitter, and I think that gets into troublesometimes. But he did hit a decent number of doubles, so I think maybe there's a little bit more power than the three homers and four hundred plate appearances would suggest, but his line of two sixty three, three thirty seven, three seventy one has nothing to write
home about. And like you, I'm not brushing out to roster him. It's more like, let me put a pin in this guy and watch him early next year to see if he's put on a little bit more game power and maybe maybe there's something here.
Yeah, you know, well, red Socks are gaining the reputation of being the bat speed folks up in everyone's bat speed.
So I don't know, Yeah, maybe maybe he can do that.
Yeah, I think they've done that with some guys, But that that wraps up the Red Sox, right.
Yeah, they or the or the Rays I think were the least interesting. I think all of the next guys that we're going to talk about are are fascinating in one way or another.
I agree, let's do the Orioles.
Matte nasty with it. These are I think we'll we'll talk about it. But there there are so many fun places to go in the Oriole system.
I think, so let's start on the arm side. You look at their roster percentages, like they are so unpopular of an arm system, do not understand that no, Chase McDermott twenty four percent, and then nobody was above three percent in September in their system. Prospect wise, Louis staleone trace Bright were three percent, Michael Ferrett two percent, Patrick Riiley two percent, pe For Morphy two percent, Brandon Young two percent. Do one. Nunez get popped today in the
real five draft. I thought he did. He was one percent. Alex fam Is one was one percent. The guy I'm gonna go with was at zero percent in September, and it's ludicrous. I'm going with Nestor German nice who might be my number one arm might be my number one
¶ Nestor German
pick when we draft, might be my my pick. Now, obviously this is a long shot bet. But if someone's gonna Christian Scott or Zebbie Matthews this year, Meser Germans my pick, I don't know what kind of odds you might give me on that sort of bet, but I might take. I don't know if you've watched a lot of German, which I wanted to say, I wanted to say Herman, but they were pronouncing that German. But he's from up by kind of your neck of the woods.
He went to the University of Sattle. You or Seattle you. Yeah, Well, I'm sorry, maybe he was. Maybe he was one percent rostered in September. My apologies, Matt, Well he was. He was zero percent in the beginning of September, one percent at the end of September. And I know that he's only rostered in one of my leagues when he was twenty two and a half years old. His last start, he's listed at six three. He's a righty eleventh round
twenty twenty three pick out of Seattle. He spent twenty twenty four throwing forty eight and a third innings in a ball and then twenty five and a third innings in high A. Now watching pictures. I don't know if this plays into some of the lack of popularity, but watching pictures in this system and the lowers is a little tough. There's not like great broadcasts to do it,
at least their home broadcasts. So that was a little bit of a trick watching German, but it did not deter me from coming away with some pretty high opinions. I think German is a poster child of sorts for draft a good pitcher and hope that the stuff gets better because the stuff over the course of the season got way better. They added velocity, life throws, a good
firm slider, like, all of it got better. His season nine seventy three and two thirds one five nine ERA a point nine to four whip a two point sixty three x FIP, thirty one point four K percentage of five point nine walk percentage. That's not too shabby, Matt. The very very good hitters hit one ninety three against him, ground ball percentage of almost fifty percent, didn't give up a lot of home runs through strikes at a sixty five percent clip. Now, maybe another part is, you know
he's piggybacking. Was piggybacking? You know they do that in that system. They have a lot of guys they want to get innings too. After he moved up to Hi A, he didn't technically start any game in High A, but he did go three four and two thirds four three and two thirds, four and four innings pitched in those one two three what outings? I think the fastball is probably like I don't know, ninety five ninety six. It
was really good from sledder. Like I mentioned, there's a curve ball as well that I think looks pretty nasty. I don't know if the change up. The change up might be his least developed offering.
I still think it's really good. Yeah, yeah, you know, it's worth noting on the fastball that I think it rides really well. I mean, you look at his arm angle. It's a little more over the top than some of the guys. It's not like a Bryce Miller super flat rising fastball. But I think it looks to me. I don't have any IVB numbers on him or anything, but it looks to me visually like he's getting good ride with it because he's coming right over the top, and I think that's helping it play.
Yeah, you know, and when you just talk about like good arsenal and good execution coming together, I think that's that's Nestor German here big time. I you know, kind of let it out in the discord that this was, you know, maybe my favorite B side arm And I know Clegg chrimmed in so that he might think he's the most underrated pigeon prospect in baseball. I think there's
a case for that for sure. Hopefully he graduates from the piggyback stage of his development here and full on starter go and he's a guy who I think you could drop and you could drop into the biggs right now. And some of his some of the at bats, some of the sequencing, quality of stuff, quality of the execution, like that's going to give major league hitters a hard time right now. It's just doing it all the time consistently.
Obviously is a big hurdle for a loud guys. But I like the bet and I like the chances that this is a major league This is a dude. Yeah, yeah, No, one's rostering.
I co signed this one. I am a rosterer myself in my thirty team deep league that I love. I second everything you say, and I knew he was going to be your pick, so I'm not gonna co sign it for purposes of the B side or draft. But no, I'm a big fan as well. I think this is
a great pick. My one concern about him at this stage is the innings and are they going to let him up into that workhorse or are they going to pen him because looking at the way the stuff plays, the fastball, slider, change up combo as a reliever, like maybe they just want to fast track him to do that because they do have a lot of these like starters that are have really good stuff and have some
innings under their belt. You know, Povich and McDermott and Brandon Young, I think all are big league quality starters. But none of them I think is like that you know, Ace type guy, and so maybe, but they're all ahead of where German is and some of the other guys that we'll talk about. So I wonder if they have seen just how much this stuff plays up. I mean, you're talking like nineteen point seven percent swinging strike rate in high A super impressive. That is up there as
some of the nastiest stuff in the minors. So my one concern is that they stop him starting next year.
And for whatever, This is where I threw out one of their brass that I thought he might be my favorite arm in their whole system, and where they didn't think that was a crazy notion. So take that for whatever.
That's good to hear. I mean, I want to see him, give him a chance, like, let's see what he does at the double A rotation and see if he can build some innings, because you're you're absolutely right, the stuff is hillacious and it is really it's fun watching him pitch too, Like you see him just attack guys and something doesn't work, they'll try something different and it often works the second time. So he's it's fun.
It's super great to see a guy who's like stuff just like ticked up over this year and like doesn't skip a beat with the you know, the execution and the strike throwing and stuff that all just stayed where it was too, Like, I don't know, I don't know if you see that every day.
Yeah again, I already mentioned him, but Brandon Young is another of my favorite guys in the system. I really like Chase McDermott too. I know the walks are higher than I usually like to see, but I watched a good bit of him this year before he got hurt and thought that it was getting better, like the command was tightening up and the stuff was staying and he was still getting the punch outs. Like McDermott looks really exciting if they can hone that that strike throwing just
a little bit. And I think Brandon Young looks like a you know, number four, number three kind of starter. And what did you say, he's two percent owned? Yeah, Like that's ridiculous to me, Like he's I would take him over most of the pictures in the FYPD draft that's upcoming, Like, I think he's going to be real good.
Before you name your guy, I just want to throw what was my short list here, because I think it could have been quite long. I kind of think I might know who you're going to pick. But tell me if your guy's on this list here, Brax and Bragg, Cam Weston, I picked him last year, So not him, but Blake Money, Levi Wells, Ty Weatherley, Trey Gibson.
Yeah, none of those guys.
Okay, all right, my other finalist in this system, and I think there's a lot of other guys that could be in that list too.
Yeah. Yeah, A couple of those guys I think are pretty interesting. I mean I looked at Blake Money, huge dude. Stuff looks pretty good, big fun Beard just he's still a little raw for me, and I think still has some work to do there. I don't know if you came to the same conclusion. The other guy that I was really excited about I think I had mentioned before, Peter Van Luhn.
Yeah, that's why that was my favorite. That my ads on bet that you'd pick.
Van Lune is awesome. I think super underrated and I think he's another one of these guys that was a late pick out of UC Irvine, and as he's gone up the levels, seems like he just keeps getting better, you know, punching out thirty one percent of batters at double A in a starter's workload. You know, he's got
eleven starts there. The walks ticked up a little bit too, which I don't I don't love, but twenty point six, twenty eight point six came I as BB two sixteen average against really really solid stuff across the board, solid power pitcher. I think that he could follow that kind of McDermott path and like the stuff keep ticking up and if he can keep the walks in check, which historically he's been like more a good strike thrower than
a great one. But Van Luhn is again like German for me, really really exciting, so excited to see what they do next year. And I think would be a great B side pick in a lot of years. But it just it happens occasionally, like maybe once or twice where Nate you get one right, and I think cam Wesson was your one last year that you got right and is the guy that I want to highlight again. So I'm gonna piggyback on that one. Co sign on
German like great pick. Totally agree he's I think he's going to be good and I hope they use him well. Van Luhn is my like like kind of B sides B side, you know that I think he could he could pop off a bit next year. He keeps going on the developmental trajectory that I think he is. I'm
¶ Cameron Weston
gonna double tap your guy from last year and think that this was just a great pick Weston. For those that don't remember, he was a mid round pick. I think like eighth round out of Michigan. If I recall you had liked his like aggressive pound the zone kind of approach and pitchability and execution that he thought that that was like playing above where people were valuing him last year and hi a last year where he spent
a good chunk of the year. He was quite successful and fifteen point one percent swinging strike rate induced a bunch of ground balls pitched to a two six eight er. I think it was a good call then and then he just did that but better and at higher levels this year. Weston's another one of these guys that he's a low slot slinging righty like. His motion is really fun.
He almost gun slings it from the hip like he separates his hands and then his right hand where the ball is is just hanging out by his hip and then just whips out and around and he gets great sinc on his fastball and change up the slider is really nasty. He keeps everything on the ground. He got fifty seven percent ground balls in Higa this year, and then in a larger sample it fell to forty five percent at double A, and he did start to give up few homers, but still he was limiting walks. The
babip was pretty low. He threw a good number of innings, like he almost got one hundred and ten innings on the air, which I also love, like starting to build that starter's workload. And he was another one that as he went through starts, he kept up the stuff like there was no drop off, unlike some other guys who as they go through the outing they'll change things up. What I like about Weston is that he does the same thing over and over and over again, and guys
can't adjust. To me, that tells me something about the stuff that Like, he just keeps sinking that fastball underneath righty's hands and they keep grounding it out. He keeps throwing the slider down and into lefties and they whiff. It's like they know what's coming and they still can't do anything about it. And I also love his kind of like demeanor and the way that he like is a bulldog out there on that He's like, I know that you're not going to hit this stuff hard. I
know you're not going to get me. And he really has to miss a spot I feel like to get got. I saw him give up a home run early in one outing where he hung a slider into a lefty. Same guy later in the game struck him out on a slider that was actually executed where he wanted it.
You could see him just get fired up about it, like he buried it down and in one two left he swung over it and you know, same pitch that he had hit out when he left it up, but he like, I'm going right back to that same pitch. I just executed it badly, execute it well, strikeout. So Kim Weston, I think he's really really good and for what it's worth. Steamer projects him as a three eight
six er guy in the majors next year. Now they're projecting him as that as a reliever, so take that with some some Usually when they do kind of the lower projections, or if they don't project you, quote unquote as a starter, the eer comes down because you know, shorter outings and all that stuff plays up. But that is still really really good. There are not a lot of even reliever types. They get sub four projections when you haven't sniffed triple A yet, let alone the major leagues.
So that tells me that the computers are also seeing that what he has been doing not only looks sustainable, but it looks like it's gonna play at the higher levels. So I don't always use that as a as a barometer, but I do like it as a as a sanity check one way or another. And that's like a big outlier.
That's a really really impressive projection. So I think they're gonna keep letting him start, though I know they did some of the piggybacking with west End this year as well, but it was still usually you know, four or five inning outings when he was piggybacking in so I think they're going to keep letting him start.
This is pretty much par for the course in their system, I mean, what everybody's doing.
Also because they just have a lot of arms to go around. I mean, this system is deep and good. There are so many good arms.
I know there's like maybe not a lot of name value in the dynasty world here, but this is legit, and I.
Think there should be. We've talked about like six names in here that I would take over. I don't know anybody in the Boston system, including the pretty boys, like you can have loose parless, you can have your I Manegro, you can have all those pretty boy arms, like I don't care. I want all these guys in Baltimore system.
Do you think it's because they're like piggybacking that it just like kind of goes under the radar for a lot of dynasty folks. It might, it might, It doesn't really like great well to like different.
They're also not spending like side draft capitals, you know, but they're also not spending like high draft capital. Like most of the guys that we've talked about are all mid or late rounders, and I think that people, especially post fypds, they hang on to that first rounder because they were a first rounder for so long. And I think we know pretty fast in Pro Bowl. We get a lot more useful information almost right away when guy's debut, and like sometimes that's in the next.
Is right, Bitsko is still rastered more than all these guys. Yeah, you know Criminal for example, a year ago and this was even I know there are twenty twenty three class for pitching seemed like a pretty dang good class and we were just starting to see them a year ago now, but even even before that kind of felt like it was very underrated and there was a slew of talent here and guys that thought could pop up, we thought
could pop up. So yeah, the Orioles pitching, and I know in the discord and stuff, people are starting to talk about it a little bit more and maybe it won't be quite as unloved a year from now. But you want some b side arms, check out the Orioles. Man, There's there's some of the best least rostered starting pitching prospects out there.
I think. Yeah, all right, the bat side, Matt Batside, I thought there was some like you said before, I think there were several different ways you could go at this roster percentage, but I landed on a first year player guy that I liked the brief looks of quite a bit and interesting.
What were some of the other guys that you were that you were looking at, like.
Edwin Amparo, Aaron Estrada, Tavy and Josenberger, Edri compos and Miguel Rodriguez were my final my finalist here, and I was I just listened to the BA guys review the Orioles draft just today yesterday, and they were talking about my guy here, so that makes me feel good. But I'm going with their third round pick from this year
¶ Austin Overn
out of USC, Austin excuse me, Austin Overn. I don't know if you're familiar. Kind of fits. I think a search that they've been on. I think they're kind of looking for a speedy center fielder type, you know, and I think he very much fits that profile. I don't know where he might sit right now in the pecking order in their system for that profile. But a former
wide receiver they were saying today. I didn't know that until I listened to the BA guys at USC at twenty one years old lefty listed at six foot that might be a little generous. I don't know. Pro debut was only twenty one games, fifteen in a BL and six in High A, but I thought he was pretty impressive. Walked sixteen point one percent of the time, struck out twenty seven percent of the time two eighty three, ninety eight,
four sixty seven, hit a home run. I don't think he's like a big power guy, but I think he is a guy might hit the right shapes to hit some home runs and has enough in there. Stole sixteen bags in twenty one games. Granted it's in the lowers, but I think speed is going to be a part
of his game. Good enough for one forty six WRC plus in Hi A, pulled the ball forty one percent of the time sixteen point seven percent ground ball rate in his small sample size in Hi A. But uh yeah, I don't know, man, Austin Overn, Maybe you could be a center fielder for them relatively soon. I don't know. I mean, that's a tough tough place to break in, but I kind of the third round picks don't tend to be very popular in first year player drafts.
US soon interesting interesting. Well, you know, I think he's going to have a hard time leaprogging my B side pick of enriy K Bradfield junior from last year, who is speedy centerfield plus defense and one of the most prolific and effective base deelers in the miners and he I think I was a little worried this year with Bradfield that the K rate was ticking up, but he I think got that under control. It's still a plus.
It's not elite, but it's plus at fifteen percent, so I think that could play, especially that he takes a walk too, so gives himself a lot of chances to steal. And he actually hit some homers this year four homers hit five doubles in eighteen or five triples rather in eighteen doubles two so Bradfield.
Still were any of those inside the park home runs?
I think there was at least one, but he did leave the yard over the fence a couple of times. My guy this year, I'm actually quite excited about one
¶ Aron Estrada
of these ones that I think it's kind of a slow burn watching him, and is one where the numbers might be a touch ahead of like the data, like the stack cast and some of the EV data, but I'm going with Aaron Estrada this year. Yeah, he's one percent, I think when I looked.
Yeah, I use one percent on September twenty seven.
Okay, and just slashed two eighty six, three fifty six, four sixteen, nineteen doubles, five triples, nine homers, thirty nine steals, eight point two percent walk rate, sixteen percent strikeout rate. Good for a one twenty six WRC plus end of the year at high A, but most of the year in loway.
That's right.
The thing about Estrata is that he's five to eight. So you know, short boy short King is prime B side hunting territory and he's listed at one forty two on fan grafts. Now, I think he's a little bit taller and definitely bigger than this. Now that might have been his reported height and weight when he was signed out of Venezuela a couple of years ago as a seventeen year old in the DSL. So I think he's
a little bit bigger than this. Like he's still on the smaller side, but looks athletic, which he good runner, not a great base stealer, you know, watching his steals like a lot of them are close, or he picks some wrong times to go, but he's like I think, working on that. You know, he did still thirty nine bags this year, but I think there's some power there that is a little bit surprising given the small frame.
So that's something that I think could tick up. We might see fifteen or twenty homers next year, which would be really interesting. And he's one of those guys that it's the whole package put together is what makes him interesting. I like his swing. I think he puts it on the ground a touch too much, but I think that the swing still looks really really nice. He's balanced on both sides of the plate. He's a switch hitter, balance
from both sides. I think he's a better from the left kind of guy, but still good from the right. The overall approach, the overall package, to me, is one that it gets underappreciated, right. It's one of those ones that it's going to be kind of the sum of the parts profile, but one that I think is really
really good. And I'm not alone in this Steamer Again, I know I just mentioned this, but it's also fun to look at steamer projections for young minor leaguers because they take just the data that they have access to and say, what would this guy hit in the major leagues. Also removes a lot of the bias things like where was he taken in the draft, or what's his scouting report? Or how tall is he? Like those things don't play
into their algorithm. I don't think last I checked. And so then you get to stack guys up pretty interestingly. So I looked at every guy who had yet to debut in the majors, which you know, for nineteen year olds, there aren't any this year. Quick quiz nate, who's number one on this list nineteen years old? Who's the best hitter according to Steamer as a nineteen year old, best nineteen year old he's in this system?
Oh uh, Basallo Biseo, sorry say.
He's number one by an absolute metric. Shit ton the Seo is going to be an absolute monster in the major leagues. Like that guy, I mean, if you can acquire him, I think there's a good chance that he's the best hitter period in the minor leagues by by potentially a lot. Biseos is very very impressive. Number two and three are guys that I have definitely hated on
in the past. Walker Jenkins and Jus Way to Paula, both because they've been very young, have succeeded in the challenges that they've faced and have made it up to the upper minors. So that helps. And the fourth guy is actually another one that I've been a little skeptical of, largely because I don't think he's having a ton of success, but they keep pushing him up high. In Nelson Rada,
so he's fourth and Aaron Estrada is fifth. And considering that, unlike Rada, it's not like he's got shoved up into double A this year. He's been at you know, advanced levels for his age as a nineteen year old. Making up to HYA is good. That's a tough challenge and
he's held his own there. But that means that Aerin Astrada is ahead of pretty boys like Max Clark, Colt Emerson, Ralphie Velaskez, Jefferson, Rojas is a here hope at Chedrie Vargas, Hansel, Luis Robert Klas, George Lombard Junior like and these are the good nineteen year olds, these are the ones that have like done something, and and our plant with Jason Churio, he's just ahead of him. This is not the end all be all. There's huge wide ara bars around this
kind of projection. And I don't use this is like this is who's better than who when slicing these things up, but it is a really strong reminder that age matters a lot, and when someone is kind of holding their own at a level that is way above their paygrade, like like they're playing against way older guys, we really should wait that pretty heavily and suggests to me that Aeron Estrada is borderline top one hundred overall prospect right now,
and nobody thinks he's that good. So I think Estrata is one that you should try and acquire quietly, Like you don't have to make him the centerpiece of a deal, but like if you can find something interesting for the owner that has Estrata or pick him up for free. I mean he's a one percenter, so that I think he has got a chance to be a outperform Max Clark right like, and Max Clark is quote unquote a great player, but could could return you better value than
Max Clark as they rise up the levels. So hop on the erin astrata train. I'm super excited about this some of all the parts player visually it checks out for me. I think the statistical performance has been quietly very impressive, and I'm excited to see what he can do next year.
Right On, I actually was rostering this strata or a good chunk of this year in a few leagues, but kind of towards the end of the year moved along for a more further advanced pitcher. I think probably in most cases at the top of my shortlist, I think he was going to be my pick until I came
across Over. And now maybe I was thinking about this stuff too much, but I was thinking about the stature, and I was thinking about the ground ball percentage, and then I was just watching over and I was like, yeah, maybe there's like just some more impact here that I can feel safe about, which I think was the deciding factor for me. But thinking about how you know, the way that you put it, like, maybe I was understelling him a little bit, and maybe I shouldn't have dropped
right on Aeron Estrada. I like it, But was it a tough call for you in this system? Were there other guys that were there was this pretty easy.
On the hitter side, this was pretty easy. I mean, there's some other guys that I think are are interesting and a guy that I've long flirted with in the Baltimore system actually just got popped in the minor league section, John Rhodes. I think we might have talked about him before. He had a pretty bad year, but he's someone that I've been pretty intrigued by some of the skills in the past, and I don't know, the Dodgers aren't stupid and they took him, so yeah, I think that's.
Doosenberger in his fifty steels was kind of interesting to me too.
I watched a favorite of Josenburger too. He had a good year. I think he's really interesting. Again, I love the plate discipline combo of an above average walk rate and a better than average strikeout rate. So Josenberger's he is a good one. That's definitely a good shout And if it were not for Estrada, Josenberger might have been a good pick.
Matt. The Toronto Blue Jays looking at their arms, Ricky Titaman's still most popular fifty six percent two arms. Yeah right, that's really unfortunate too. I like Tituman, Jake Bloss who they got from Houston, right m h fifteen percent, Brandon Barrierra fifteen percent, Adam Maco five percent, Landon Marudis three percent, prey Yasavage there what first round pick? Second round pick this year? Is that three percent already? And then I don't know some two percenters that are meh? And that
was and that's about it. Your guy from last year, Lazaro Estrada, thought he might get picked today in the
¶ Colby Holcombe
Rule five, but didn't. I was still at zero percent. You and I like him a bit, and I ended up landing on another first year player, are Matt.
You're going aheady on the first year player guys?
Yeah, I guess the three of them tonight. I don't know if I don't know how many I've taken overall on the arm side, it doesn't feel like as many as last year. AnyWho I'm going with Colby Holcombe. I don't know if you watched him at all. I don't think I did. There wasn't a ton fifteen innings. After getting drafted twenty one years old, Righty listed at six six, good strong, big frame. They drafted him out of Mississippi State this is the second Mississippi State What are they?
The Bulldogs and I talked about tonight. He was the ninth round pick, signed for one hundred and ninety eight K. His college career, Matt was pretty unremarkable, I think. But he only had like fifty eight relief innings for Mississippi State over the last two years, and they weren't very productive. Numbers weren't very good, but I know he had a really good cape his last year. There is some savant stuff right because he was in the Florida State League.
So looking at that stuff, here's a four seam fastball that averaged ninety three point one, but he can get it up there higher than that when he wants to. He'll reach back at ninety five ninety six. I know there was reports that I don't know if this is while he was in college or on the cape, but he can like touch ninety nine. The four seam sinker game I thought was pretty interesting with him, Like he mixed those two up, and I thought he like good timing when he chose to throw, you know, was good
at deciding which one to throw. There's a slider, there's a curveball, there's a cutter. And there's a change up. I don't think he threw a ton of change ups, but it's in there. I thought the slider looked pretty decent, but you know, maybe now he's a bigger frame. I have no idea what like the extension is that he gets. I kind of imagine it's probably decent. Maybe there's a little bit like Johnny right hander ish to him, something like he's less funky than a lot of a lot
of our arm picks this year. I just liked the little looks of him, like, and you know, the debut was pretty good production wise, one point a d r a one point one to three whip Now he just struck out under twenty percent and walked almost twelve percent, so you don't love to see that. But he didn't strike me as a guy maybe like the secondary game, but I thought the fastball commands he's like a potentially like a three fastball guy was pretty good. So I
don't know. Obviously the blue Jay saw something in him here wanted to take him second day, and I could kind of see it. I don't know, man, I was just enjoying my looks. I thought it was good mix of stuff and pitchability. Big, strong frame. I don't know. This is why I landed on Kobe Holcom nice.
Yeah, it sounds like a decent dart throw. I mean I didn't love the arms in the system. I still think lazarro Strada is my favorite picture in their system period. Maybe Adam Mako comes back and is good again. I liked him when he was with the Mariners, but I'm not a teetaman guy. I think he's a reliever if he ever can stay healthy enough. And I wasn't a big fan of the rest of the arms in the system other than Estrata, who I think had a really nice double A, and I'm excited to see what he
can develop into next year. I don't like the guy that I'm picking, really like. He's a bottom five maybe
¶ Trenton Wallace
armed for me in the system, but he's near to the bigs. It's Trenton Wallace. He's spent most of the year in triple A. The stuff is like not even stuff that I'm going to defend. You know, it's eighty nine, but it's not like special shapes or anything. He can spin it. Okay, so he still struck out twenty six point five percent of batters, but he has to nibble quite a lot to do that. So I don't think
the performance was all that impressive. And he's seems just like really depth arm material to me, or a long swingman role, eat innings kind of thing. But this is not a strong recommendation by any stretch to the imagination. I don't think he's that good.
I agree there wasn't a lot of other than a Strata who was still zero percent. I wasn't really taken by the many of my looks here. There was a teenager Luis Torres that there was a few looks of in single A. But I still like to holk him better.
¶ R.J. Schreck
Cool but the bats, yeah, yeah, yeah, some fun ones here.
That's where it's at. I think r J Shrek might be my number one beside that this year came over. I was going to get that what's that. I was going to guess that, yeah, that's that, and that you're not going with Shrek.
I almost did, And as I'll say, I think that this is the smart pick. This is a this is a reversal of fortune here, a reversal of roles, because I think that Shrek is high probability, good hitting big leaguer like that. That is is going to be pretty good. But I think my guy is a moonshot chance.
Okay, all right, look at us. Yeah, switching roles here a bit, but yeah, I'm going to go with Shrek, twenty three year old outfielder lefty listed at six to one. He was the ninth well, he was the Mayriorner ninth round pick out of Andy in twenty twenty three. What trade? Oh, justin Turner? Right? Yeah, that was just straight up Trek for Turner, Right.
I think that's right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Oh, how do you feel about that as a Mariners fan?
Look, Jerry's constantly trying to trade from his mid round picks that hit to get a little bit of help for the big league squad. Turner did help the big league squad. I don't think that this is a trade that they're gonna, like, really regret in the long term for reasons that we'll we'll talk about. But I do think that it's gonna hurt when Trek hits the ground running in the bigs as a hitter.
Okay, And you know, after I landed on Trek mid video and stuff like, I got hit up by a few people that were just like, hey, I think Trek's really a dude, and these are like, you know, more like data guys. So take that for whatever it's worth. But but he spent most of the year in Everett, right, seventy eight games there, yeah, forty four played appearances. Then, yeah,
he hit like twelve home runs. And this is a guy that I think as an amateur, I don't think home runs were really like a big part of it. So you're like, yeah, you know, this guy's an Everett. You know that ridiculously small porch. So maybe some of that is is a bit bloom, but you kind of continue to hit home runs even when he moved up well, no, now with Seattle, but he hit five with what New
Hampshire right in one hundred and fourteen played appearances. Well, this is a guy that total on the year walked fifteen point seven percent. Now, and that was thirteen point five percent, and combining both his double A stops struck out just a little bit more sixteen point five percent. It was twenty three percent in double A on the year slash two fifty one, three eighty eight, four sixty two with at two eleven ISO and that was on a two seventy four babbit's good enough for a one
forty two WRC plus. Like we talked about, I think he kind of maximizes his home run potential with his bad boss.
I was going to talk about this, Like you watch him play, his superpower is the barrel control and the launch angle control. Like he is a poster boy for I'm trying to lift this particular pitch and I'm trying to hit this pitch on a love I'm like, he does a really really good job manipulating the barrel that way.
And it's kind of a cool story. I think he started off as a walk on at Duke before transferring. I did notice the splits aren't the greatest, so maybe there's some platoon stuff to think about there. It's like six hundred in August after the trade, first month in the Eastern League, and I don't know as far as this sort of goes, maybe like a little bit of a tweener, Like I don't know, is he does he lack impact for like the corner outfield life, but is
he like really a center fielder. I don't know. I think he only had it.
That's my that's my like real world take on this is that he probably moves to the corner. So maybe he's a decent left fielder and he I don't think it's going to be like a twenty five homer back. He might he actually might get to that in some seasons, like if he gets a good long run because he hit so many fly balls. It's just one of the things that I think makes him a pretty interesting guy. But it's it's it'll be tough for him to do, so you know, he's really going to have to really
going to have to hit. And I don't think that's like his power baseline. But he's a guy that his game power is I think two grades above his raw. He just is so good at manipulating the barrel that he's going to get to all the power that he's got.
Yeah, they had not that this like is a measurement of how good you are defensively necessarily, but two airs on the season, and one of those was in his very first game. But I think he was primarily what was he primarily playing center field?
He played left and right the most.
Okay, I just wrote I wrote down outfield, which in my language to myself just means he played all of them.
Yeah, mostly and left.
Then yeah, Shrek is a pretty good get for Toronto and Toronto even more so today. Just kind of gobbling up a lot of these kind of like deside ish kind of like just like guys. Then they got a lot of them, and I don't know, maybe maybe a few of them pop and produce more than they're sort of popularity in name recognition right now. But I think they've made a lot of interesting trades and gobble up a lot of these kind of like mid tier prospects that I have the like quite a bit.
And as we've seen, sometimes these mid tier prospects add a little bit and turn into Spencer Horowitz, who was just like traded for an absolute crap ton and given that nobody was on him a couple of years ago. But if you keep hitting at the upper miners, and I think that the Jays have a bunch of these guys, you know, Will Wagner is another one that like he's kind of underappreciated, but I think is gonna be a
good major league hitter. Alan Roden's another one. I think we've talked about who he's to me, got a lot of the like hitterish traits that I think are underappreciated, even Josh Kasevich. I think he's another one that like is kind of sneaky interesting. And you know, they acquired our boy McAdoo who kept hitting post trades. So think
that there's and Panogo too. You know Panongos, as you had mentioned, he's been caught and cold last year and for you in general, but he still remained somewhat interesting as well.
Yeah, so who'd you end up going? Who's your moon shot here?
Yeah? So even with me saying I liked a lot of these guys, and I think most of the guys that I just named were over our roster threshold percentage. I'm not one hundred percent on that, but I'm pretty sure that these are all guys that were like two or three percent. I'm just advocating that they're pretty interesting and folks should look at them. They've got a lot of these like league average or maybe a touch better kind of bats, but where they can to play on
defense and all that kind of stuff. And I was looking. I watched quite a bit of the J's and explored a bunch of their FSL data and TRIPAA data because obviously we've got stat cast for that, and I thought they had a really interesting set of guys from the draft, one of whom was included in that him and his
trade too, Nick Mitchell. I had just been watching him as I was brushing up on the Jay's system, and then when I saw that Mitchell was included in that deal for Andres him and Is, I was like, oh, yeah, I thought he was pretty interesting as well, good swing decisions. I thought his contact looked good at four homers and his hundred plate appearances stole three bags, like interesting power speed and was decent at Indiana. I was like, well, that's kind of an interesting guy and a very Cleveland
kind of target. And then the other guy that I thought was pretty interesting, another outfielder that they drafted, Eddie Mikletty Junior. Do you watch any of him?
I think so, Yeah, I got him on my list here. Yeah.
He was a Virginia Tech guy again mid round, like eighth rounder out of out of Virginia Tech. He had really good walks to strikeouts, you know, it was almost one to one, popped a couple of homers. I liked a lot about his look as well, really nice left
¶ Aaron Parker
handed swing. So he's another one that I'm interested to see how it goes. But I got sucked in to another of these like super weird guys. Aaron Parker.
Yeah, he would have been he was, He would have been mine. If it wasn't, he would have nice. Nice.
So they settled on those two. So Aaron Parker out of UCSB. The other catcher that I took a random ass flyer on, Brendan Durfy for San Diego.
Yeah.
So Brendan Durfy, who I like pulled out of a hat. Barely watched any of him, but it was like, ay, it's interesting in a difficult to find somebody's system. Well, big catcher out of UCSB, I'm going with Aaron Parker out of UCSB, who's a catcher who's just drafted. So the two of them were both at UCSB last year, splitting time. I looked like they shared some time and DHD and all of that. Aaron Parker had a good debut.
Surface numbers were two thirty five three eighty five thirteen, good for a one fifty four WRC plus in a ball and now like college bat coming out of the draft in a ball like you expect them to do pretty decently well, and you know the warts struck out twenty seven percent of the time. That's a lot, especially for a college bat. But because it's the FSL, we've got exit Vilo data and we've also got swing decision data, and Aaron Parker is off the freakin charts on.
Both of them. Well, when I were just looking at that, just pulled that up the other day.
Absolutely nutty exit Villo. His ninetieth percentile was like one oh eight for something, which is like crazy high for anybody. I mean, that's like elite big league power, Like that's that's I think in the ninetieth or ninety fifth percentile for major leaguers Like that's Roman Anthony is at that,
and he also walks seventeen percent of the time. And so I started comparing him, and do you know who is like number one comparison is Emmanuel or Rodriguez because they never swing, they walk all the time, they strike out, they have poor contact and elite power. So Aaron Parker is Emmanuel Rodriguez, but just without the steals and plays catcher. I watched him a bit of catcher. It looked fine to me, nothing great, nothing awful.
Yeah, I was wondering about that. I was wondering about about his catching ability, like which.
Yeah, starts and it looks it looks fine to me.
I mean, is there is there anything like less sticky than defensive catcher grades for prospects and opinions, so over and over, so many examples of it going both ways.
Yeah, and you know he DHD. He DHD a lot in a ball likes basically fifty to fifty. Some of that might have been coming off a college she's in. Some of that might have just been like.
You're talking, like you're talking this like short right handed yep, nasher.
Yep, he's and looks like it. But he hits the ball in the air a ton, you know, thirty four percent in the air, twenty two percent line drives. He pulls the ball too. But even when he goes opo, he might leave the yard at any given moment. He had a really cool opo homer. He just like muscled out the outfielder kind of drifted back thinking he might have a play, and then it was way over the wall.
It's like crazy. He has huge contact concerns, like we're talking bottom of the scale contact in both end zone and overall. The guy never fucking swings so I kind of think it's just not going to matter that much. And when he swings, he is looking to do damage. And again this thing with like short guys and oh we shouldn't like him or whatever. The dude fucking mashes. He hits the ball so hard already, that's the thing you care about, that's the thing you're worried about for
a short guy. Like if he showed that that is in his toolkit. I just don't think his height really matters all that much to me. So he has one big flaw, but a bunch of things that I really really like. So I'm betting on Aaron Parker and this new wave of how you hit is swing lass. I think he's on that train and when you swing and hit it, you hit it really far. So Aaron Parker's
my moonshot guy. That he might be just like an absolute masher ketcher kind of guy, or he might not make enough contact and he might flame out Shrek to me, is the high high probability, great pick. Like Co signed that as well. It's a good, good B side rep. But I'm shooting the moon here and going Aaron Parker.
Yeah, I'm glad you picked Parker. That's cool. Yeah, Vogel hit me up. He's like, hey, the with the new Bowman Draft Baseball card release thing, He's like, who are some really cheap guys that you kind of like? And like, dude, Aaron Parker is like the cheapest hitter to take in these breaks and stuff. And I'm like, dude, Parker for twenty nine dollars or whatever it was, I'm like, dude, take him, man. But yeah, that's funny. I'm glad you went with Parker.
I don't know what any of that means, but Aaron, it.
Means no card collectors think that Aaron Parker is any good.
Yes, yeah, I think a lot of real life people think that too, and a lot of fantasy players think that. But I don't know, man, those are rare, rare skills.
Yeah, that's true, all right, Last, but not least, the evil Empire, right, that's not an empire, but the New York Yankees looking at their arm farm. Yeah, Chase Hampton twenty eight percent, Will Warren was twenty seven percent, Lani nineteen percent, Brack Salvage five percent, several two percenters, and then like, yeah, then us, then where we dig around one thing that's kind of interesting. Now I know their draft, they seem to like really kind of reload. They took
a ton of pitchers in the first two days. I think maybe all pictures the first two days maybe a little bit older in the uppers. But I think it's just also like a lot of good, tough competition, right,
¶ Trent Sellers
tough to get developmental innings there. But I landed on a twenty twenty three undrafted free agent.
Ooh, who did you go far?
I'm going with Trent Sellers and he's from He's from Oregon State, So I didn't know if you were familiar or that I am, And I'm not even sure. I don't even know college if he was a starter or reliever of what the story was, I didn't even look. But there are some folks interested. He was one percent rostered in September. He was twenty four, almost twenty five
years old. His last start, which was in High A. There was a Triple A appearance at some point this year, but I think that was just a little brief deal here in High A. Thirty one games, nine starts, eighty
two innings pitched. I think there was like some piggybacking going on, you know, like we talked about an undrafted free agent guy, but I think he maybe has started to maybe he graduated from that sort of status you're talking at two point zero nine ERA, A point ninety six whip, a three four five x fit, thirty point
three K percentage eleven and a half walk percentage. Ground balls at almost forty nine percent, was a swinging strike rate of ten point three percent according to Fangrass, through strikes at a fifty nine percent clip on the season. But Matt, the way that he ended the season was what got me, got me intrigued. His last thirty nine innings, which was his last ten starts, This is when he started starting point nine two ERA A point six y nine whip, thirty four percent K percentage and just a
seven percent walk percentage. Through strikes at a sixty one percent clip. Still not quite the strike throwing that you kind of want to see. Fifteen pitches an inning, gave up one home run over that stretch.
Pretty good, Yeah.
Like not too bad. Fastball is probably ninety to ninety four. There's a sinker, I think that might be just a smidge softer. There's a cutter, so kind of three fastball guy, change up and a slider, a nice firm slider at like eighty six. I think the change up, I don't know, was maybe around eighty four or something like that, but that's a good velocity differential. I'll share a video here. What did that show? I think probably an inning of his second inning of work after a leadoff walk versus
Greensboro in the playoffs. So at the very end of the season, I thought he was just filthy dropping some secondaries that we were just kind of giving these guys no chance. Maybe a guy who's secondary game might be a little bit stronger just as far as execution. But yeah, I don't know. Trent Sellers, man, I was just really impressed with him down the stretch. Think, I don't know, maybe there might be some more opportunity this season in the uppers for a New York Yankee spec arm to
make some noise. And I wouldn't be surprised if Trent Sellers is one of those guys or that guy.
So Sellers is a koug like me. He transferred a couple of times.
He started at Washington State, he.
Did, That's where I remembered him from, and he wasn't very good there. And then bounced around to a junior college and then an NAI school up here in the Northwest, and then kind of figured it out at Lewis and Clark and ended up at Oregon State, where he was a starter for them and had a really nice year. I don't know if I saw him that year, but
I remember following him a little bit. He does look like a developmental success story to me, like he wasn't this good, certainly in college and even at Oregon State when he took a step forward, I think that he has looked much better. And I do think that this is the Yankees developmental organization philosophy, that they take some of these guys that maybe have some interesting traits and then they kind of throw a lot of information at them and see what sticks and see what changes they
can make. And I think that's what that's what we're seeing from Sellers, and interestingly, what we're also going to talk about with my guy Nice.
Just generically speaking, I feel like watching Yankees arms over the last several years, like there's just breaking ball game that just really takes off with a lot of guys. There's I feel like them in like maybe like the Strows or maybe the two that I two systems I noticed the most that just kind of seemed to get some good spin out of guys.
Yeah, well, Sellers is a fun developmental story and an interesting one for sure. I think my guy has a
¶ Ben Shields
lot in common with yours. One long history in the minor or. In college, Ben Shields started out at UMass Amherst in twenty eighteen, got hurt in twenty nineteen, didn't pitch twenty twenty, covid ended the season early, pitched at UMass again in twenty twenty one, had a good year, but it was also shortened I think maybe by injury again.
Then transferred to George Mason in twenty twenty two, and then played for George Mason again in twenty twenty three, So if you're counting that, six seasons in college before he finally left and he didn't get drafted, but the Yankees signed him as an undrafted free agent in like late July. I think of twenty twenty three, he had played on the Cape a couple of times, and I think done decently well in his twenty twenty two stint there, and so maybe he was on some radars from that.
He was good in college. Question Mark like he was mostly a reliever in especially towards the end of his career, and went not a particularly good one at that, So
like totally unremarkable college career. Yankees saw something. I read a long interview with him and his one of his pitching coaches here in pro ball, and they talked a lot about how he really absorbed a ton of information from when they drafted him, and they put him into like the development one of the developmental teams, and I think he just worked out with them a lot and was working on stuff, and they shoved him into HIA to start the year this year again in that piggybacking role.
He wasn't a starter, but he was going two or three innings at a time. His first six outings, he went maybe fifteen innings something like that, two to three outings at a time, or two to three innings each outing, and struck out twenty eight walked eight point five four ERA to start your pro career, Like hard to do better than that to start, And he was clearly just
kind of too much for the South Atlantic League. I mean, he was just like ripping through these guys and it kept going even when they started putting him in as a starter. So after his first six appearances in relief, I think they he started the rest of the year more or less and just kept on doing the same thing.
Across all of his outings this year, he struck out thirty one point one percent of batters, walked, seven point five percent of batters three point four eight ERA and that includes a couple of like pretty big blow up outings too that I'm going to talk about because one of the things that really convinced me, like, I love that line, I love the story. I watched a bit of his low A starts and in Hudson Valley and
I was like, oh, this is pretty interesting. And I watched a couple at Summerset and I was like, this looks really really quite good. But we also have a triple A start. I love the stackcast data. I got so into this guy because he in the triple A data. We only have data on a couple of his pitches. I think it was just four, and it was terrible. In the outing. It was like, uh, let me find it, because it was like it was like a miserably bad start. So they called him up for one start against the
Syracuse with the Mets. Triple A affiliate, and they started him. He went one in two thirds innings seventeen batter's face, gave up eight hits, nine runs, seven earned a homer, and two walks and two hit by pitches. He got a strike out in there, though, But that's awful, right, terrible outing, And even with that outing, he's he's still his full season line was really really good. If you take that outing out, his full season line was electric because that was like the only time he was bad.
Get a couple of other like four run give up starts, uh starts where he gave up four runs one or two where he gave up three, But you look across his game log, especially to end the year, it's like zero runs, two runs, one runs zero zero zero one one three one three two two two two two one, Like he's just not giving up runs in these starts.
And his arsenal is so cool because he's got a sinker, which he uses a lot, a four seam fastball, which is a different shaped pitch, like clearly a different look. He has a gyro slider and a sweeper and a curveball and a splitter and he uses all of those pitches like you watch him like use you see, you know, when the catcher's calling pitches, like he's doing two finger signs to try and tell him which pitch to call, you know, so like it's not just one two three
or one two three four. They're doing like the l for the four seam I think, and they were doing the spinny fastball for the two seam. They were doing like a hookham horns kind of thing for one of his other pitches. I don't even know what that one was, but like he's clearly just got like a huge arsenal and is trying all these different things.
Was that the splitter, the horns.
It might have been, it might have been actually a huge repertoire, and commanded them all well enough that like he wasn't walking a lot of guys. He had a couple of outings where he had four walks. Most of them were two zero or one. So he's got a deep repertoire commands it pretty well gets with. And we had this stackcast data, and so I was so curious. I watched the start first and just like watched it through you know, the inning and two thirds, and he
got super unlucky. You watch it a couple of pitches that like could have gone either way. Maybe they could have challenged it. Actually, I don't know if it was a challenge there or not, but anyway that could have gone either way on like strike threes early that I thought maybe he got got screwed on a couple of weird babbit that balls just found holes like it was just a supremely unlucky start. He also didn't look faced at all. He just kept out going out there doing
his thing. But we also get the data on the pitch shapes, and I was so into this guy at this point that I spent like an hour and a half recording every single pitch, the spin, the direction, the shape, the movement, and then comping this to big leaguers. Okay, so this guy, undrafted, free agent, unheralded zero percent when I looked, I don't think anybody. I'm not even sure if he's owned in any of my leagues, and I
played in quite a few deep ones. But Shields fastball is almost a dead ringer for Max Freeds in terms of the run, the velocity, the release point. I think his might be huch higher than Freed's, but other than that, it looks just like Max Freed's, so that's interesting. The other fastballs that are in that same range are Scott
Ferguson and Patrick Sandoval I think is close. So, like, you know, those guys are good in their own way, but like, that's a fastball, that's a major league quality fastball, right and he's averages like ninety three point six with it, which is pretty good, or maybe it's a hair below that, but it's like above ninety three for a lefty. That's pretty good. Then I looked at his slider. It was unclear in the Triple A start, which was early in the year in May, whether he was throwing the distinct
sweeper and gyro. I tend to think that this was mostly the gyro slider that he was throwing and not the sweepy one that he used later on in the year. But also comps almost directly with Max Fried's in terms of velocity and movement profile horizontal and vertical. So like you've got a Max Freed starter kit, and it's not really that much of a coincidence. Maybe that they just signed the Yankees just signed Max Freed too, and Shields might have his like doppelganger there. But then he also
adds a whole bunch of other pitches too. So I'm not saying that Ben Shields is better than Max Freed. Max Freed is so long track record of extremely good success in the major leagues, but I'm saying that his stuff comps almost exactly too Max freedz so Benshields dominated the minor leagues. The stuff looks just like an ACE that just got paid an absurd amount of money and he's zero percent owned, So the stuff seems there. The
results are there. It came out of freaking nowhere. But like this is kind of a sound the alarm kind of thing on this guy. I don't know what else you would want to see from a B sider guy, Like he's He's probably in my top three B side arms that I'm most excited about, has a real shot to just be like the most successful out of them.
The depth of the arsenal, the quality of the stuff that like, I don't know, this is the thing, Like people get hung up on the guy touching ninety nine, but like you don't care when a guy looks just like an ace, Like this stuff backball slider looks just like Max Freed, and you're like oh, but it's ninety three, you know, slider, Like come on, Like, this is why I love comps, and I think that people don't use them because either they don't know like what, they don't
have that context, they don't have that the right pull the right person to compare them to, or they don't use him in the right way. And I credit Jeff Zimmermann, who writes on fangrafts a lot, like he built a tool to compare pitch types to major league pitchers to see like how similar or what are the fastballs that look like this? What are the change ups that look
like this? And that's been a really helpful thing for me to help gut check when I look at a guy and have access to that kind of data, like is that pitch actually going to play? Like? How good is that? What does it look like? Was that pitch also good? For all of the data that I could find for Ben Shields, pitches, all of them comp to sliders, to fastballs, to curveballs that look really good and we would want to see that all in one pitcher. So
I'm honestly as excited about Ben Shields as anybody. And that's absolutely nowhere.
That's a good dig they got me more so he was third on my list here, but I was not thinking about him in this context at all. Also, that's good stuff. I just want to put a pin on one other name. I don't know if you watched any Allen Facundo, Kundo, I'm at Adio. Yeah.
I may have watched a little bit, but I don't.
He was twenty one years old, he was in single A just kind of a bigger, harder throwing lefty that I just was like into the execution and pitchability that he was showing. But I'm assuming Tommy John struck because he went on the full season in June and never saw him again. So I didn't want to like that might have been my choice here, but I just wanted to give that name a shout to see, keep an eye out when he comes back what he might look like,
because I was kind of getting into Facundo too. But yeah, Ben Shields, I don't make me. You make me want to go watch him again.
Now, dude, I highly recommend it. It's so fun.
I was into it. I didn't take a lot of notes, but he was up here.
Yeah, it's it's a it's a fun look like he's He's one that really really pressed and doing it up at double A and high A from like nowhere. It was impressive stuff.
Yeah, and I'm still I want to see Tyrone Nulie, my pick from last year, come back from his Timmy John. I don't think he didn't pitch at all this last year, which has been my theme with the Yankees B side arms, Matt. I pick a guy and they have Tommy John don't even pitch. Hopefully that doesn't happen with Trent Sellers here, hopefully not. But I was I had on my short list to Gabrielle Barbosa, who I saw I got taken into the minor league portion of draft. Today, let's move
to the bats man. I'll let you go first with the Yankees bats.
All right, My Yankees bat is a fun one. I did like quite a few of these guys. I thought there were quite a few interesting ones that were worth looking at. You know, my boy Durbin, we have talked about ad nauseum. I'm excited for him to get a shot, and I hope he really succeeds next year. He I think could be a real fun spark plug for those boring ass Yankees and but the the bat that I
lendsed on, I'm actually pretty interested in. You know, the Yankees over the past couple of years have had a real catching pipeline, Like they have developed so many catchers that have gone on to either be good or moved off the position, but are still like pretty good catchers.
They got good stuff for them in trades.
Or they got good stuff for them in trades exactly. And there were a couple of that I was looking at here. You know, Raphael Flores, I think he might be a touch over our roster percentages, but he was one. He was one percent, so I was looking at him too, and thought that might be an interesting one catcher. Looks like he can catch, like had some things that I really like. I watched quite a bit of him at Somerset and thought he looked pretty good.
Rodriguez was also still only one percent September, which I was kind of surprised.
And that's my guy. Yeah, they added him to the forty man. He's played a bunch of different positions, so again there's some of this utility here. But I watching him hit, I love it. It's so goofy. The setup
¶ Jesus Rodriguez
he like points his left elbow directly at the pitcher in this weird ass setup. He's got like the Marcelo Zuna, like really pigeon toed leg in. But he's a huge dude, and he's when he swings all of that stuff, all of those like weird ticks that I kind of love from an asthetic perspective. When he lifts this leg, it's so smooth and he is coiled, and then his hands are so fast. He's just like so short for a pretty big guy. He's so short and direct to the ball.
It's no wonder that the dude ran a fourteen point seven percent strikeout rate that is elite. That is so good. I mean it's not like quite Caleb Durban elite, but it is damn close. And considering that he popped ten homers, fifteen doubles, and four triples in three hundred and thirty three plate appearances this year, I think this guy is a real hitter and is like major league quality maybe right now. And if he can play catcher, which I'm
not sure of. You know, they moved him around a lot, I think partly because they aren't convinced he's a good catcher and they're seeing they think his bat might be able to play, and so they're seeing, like, can he play some of these other positions. He's played some third, has a pretty good arm, he's played some first played some left. Yeah, you know, he's bounced around. But I think that the Yankees are looking at him like this
guy's gonna hit. He might be a super utility or maybe maybe their catching development continues and he could be a catcher as well. So Hayes dis Rodriguez is my guy. I think he's gonna be really good. And I was I was pumped to see the Yankees take him and put him on the forty.
I think I was thinking about him myself. I was also thinking about first year player Guy Brendon Jones. I don't know if you watch Oh yeah I did from k State. He had a nice intro. W Yeah, yeah. I just kind of decided to go with my guy.
¶ Roc Riggio
Like I was like, I'm not really sure if he's a major leaguer necessarily, but I did talk to a scout that was like, he's the kind of guy somehow, some way, we're gonna see him in the big leagues. And that's rock Regio. This dude is just so much fun to watch you scrolled, go to his MiLB dot com page, scroll down to his highlights, and it's just like one after another. He made maybe the greatest defensive play at shortstop I have ever seen. Most ridiculous play.
He runs out to centerfield and his short fly ball makes the catch, falls over the centerfielder. I think he got hurt on that play too and missed some time, and then just blindly throws the ball over his head to get the guy at the second at second base who needed to tag up, like it was just ridiculous. But and there he steals home. And he's hitting walk off hits all the times, like his WPA is probably high.
I feel like even though even though his you know, season stat line is is not super overwhelming here two twenty one, three forty nine, three ninety seven slash and high a four hundred and eighty played appearances. He was their fourth round pick out Oklahoma State in twenty twenty three. Not a real big guy who listened at five to nine, did hit eleven home runs, He did steal twenty seven bases. That was a one hundred and seventeen WRC plus and
delli strikeout. You know, guy walks a lot fourteen point eight percent, struck out twenty percent. You know, you don't hate to see that. I don't know how much major league impact is necessarily in the bat. I don't even know what the realistic chances of him being a big leader. But this guy is just a gamer man and he's just like one of my favorite as a fan of baseball, just one of my favorite, if not my favorite minor leader to watch.
Yeah, I love that pick and I love the shout to the defense too. Like these kinds of guys, Yeah, I think we're talking about they get underrated in this kind of thing because one, it's a lot harder for us to evaluate unless you really are watching a guy a lot, and two that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. But that's a thing that major league teams really care about. We just started with under him and.
Reminds me of another one of my favorite minor leaders over the last several years, like Hunter stovall the Rockies. But I think Rigio is like a little bit more talented. Yeah, and you know, one thing I got to give the Yankees credit for is that for all the uh, you know, resources scouting and all the wise guys stuff that they put into their scouting whatever, they still make room and draft guys like this, Like they will get guys that
are just gamers, many good ballplayers. They might not scream out on the spreadsheets or whatever they're looking at, but like they do value that and they do have a slew of guys that are just like fucking ballplayers, man, good baseball players, heads and just the winners. Man. I think he falls into that category for sure.
Yeah, I like that pick. I like that shouty to end it on a couple of fun.
Any rocks cheaters number, but yeah, that'll do it, I guess, huh or the al these twenty five B side calls. We didn't double up on anybody, so we had twenty guys here, huh.
Yeah, I mean we we had a few co signs I think in there.
But there's there's a lot of your picks that were legit, like number two on my lists, so that that's fun.
Yeah, and the same same same of yours on mine, Like that they were right there.
We have one left. We'll do the al centroll next time we record. Looking forward to that one.
Some good fun guys. Yeah, that's that's a fun organ, fun fun group too.
Yeah, again. I'll post videos of these guys when when this pett when this recording drops on Twitter at pitching specs, you can see some of the stuff we're trying to talk about here. Well, we'll let Chicago Farmer take us out and we'll talk to you next time. See ya.
Ninety five miles an hour riding to his head.
You hop it down.
First with the lump bonius face, and on the very next pitch he up and stove second face.
With greatst speed. He wasn't born. He had yes, uniforn
