Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day seventy nine since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story experts are trying to understand whether the weather has an impact on the coronavirus. Specifically, will outbreaks recede as the northern hemisphere gets warmer. The answer may have more to do with sunlight than heat. But first, here's what happened today. Washington, d C is lifting its stay at home order starting today.
That's scene by some as a win for President Donald Trump. Trump has been strongly urging states to start up their economies again, but d C, one of the worst hotspots in the nation, had been a holdout. The symbolic victory for Trump could be short lived if a resurgence of the virus in Washington turns into an equally potent symbol of the downside of Trump's go fast approach. Greece will reopen its borders on June fifteenth to visitors from China
and twenty eight other countries. It's one of the first nations in Europe to try to revive its tourism sector. The list of countries from which travel is permitted is based on their epidemiological profile according to the Athens based Tourism Ministry, and does not include the US. Greece seemed to bring its coronavirus outbreak under control relatively quickly. Tourism in that country accounts for about a fifth of gross domestic product. And finally, Americans are just not spending money.
US consumer spending plunged by the most on record in April. It's not surprising that between soaring unemployment and shuttered businesses, the pandemic has forced people to stop spending on everything but the most essential goods and services. Households spends fell almost fourteen percent from the previous month, the biggest drop since the Commerce Department started keeping records in nineteen fifty nine,
and now our main story. For months now, scientists and politicians have wondered whether or not the coronavirus would diminish, if not disappear entirely over the summer as the weather heats up in the northern hemisphere and cools down in the southern part of the world. What will happen to the pandemic. Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale talked to one of America's most respected public health experts for his opinion, There's been a lot of talk about the potential for
seasonal variation in the spread of the coronavirus. I recently caught up with someone who has studied the scientific data. I'm Harvey Finberg. I'm the president of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and I chair the National Academy's Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and twenty one Century Health Threats. Since graduating from Harvard Medical School in Harvey has devoted most of his academic career to health policy and medical
decision making. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicines Committee that Harvey chairs reviewed in April research on the virus's ability to persist under different climatic conditions. The findings were submitted in a report that went to the White House. I asked Harvey what the evidence suggests might happen with the changing seasons wild the virus diminish in the summer, just to make a comeback when things get colder. Many
respiratory viruses, just by experience, have a seasonality component. When the weather is drier, cooler, more people indoors, they do a better job of transmitting from one person to another, so the incidents of infection tends to go up in the winter months when you're far from the equator. He points out that it's too early to know for sure when it comes to the coronavirus known as sas Covey too.
More is known about two other coronaviruses, size or Severe Acute Respiratory syndrome and MERCE or Middle Eastern Respiratory syndrome. MIRS has experienced very little seasonality attends to being warm climates. These ours original outbreak occurred in areas near the equator like Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as in temperate climates uh such as Toronto in North America. In a laboratory setting, the coronavirus TAMS not to survive as long
in warm, humid conditions. He does better in cool of dry temperatures, So there's some basis for thinking COVID may rebound when the weather gets cooler. And again, when people are indoors, they're probably touching the same surfaces even more regularly and more often. So the net of this is we can't be sure what's going to happen. We have seen outbreaks and even increases in areas like Singapore where
they're on the equator virtually. But it is I think reasonable to expect that there's going to be some seasonal fluctuation to this coronavirus, like many respiratory viruses, and that may not be a good thing. If cases do drop over the summer, then is a risk of a false sense of security setting in which could set control if
it's back when the seasons change again. If the summer months create conditions where the virus can continue to spread at a very low rate, in effect to stay below the radar, but to seed many more geographic areas even then are affected today, that's not a good recipe because that could mean in the fall and winter months we're going to see escalations in many different places happening at
the same time. So we have to maintain our vigilance, certainly through the summer with this new and dangerous virus. Obvious says in the US at laced to scale up of diagnostic capability will be key. With luck will be in a much stronger position by the fall than we were this spring to have adequate testing as a part of the response, and without testing, without a unified struck true. Without the capacity to do to the contact tracing and follow up, there really was no way that this virus
could be absolutely defeated. It's possible that the seasonal impact goes beyond just hate and humidity. Though here in Australia just over seven thousand COVID nineteen cases and one hundred debts have been reported so far, some countries in the Northern Hemisphere have reported many times that number in a single day. That striking difference might be explained at least partially by vitamin D, the best source of which comes
from the sun's ultra violet radiation. A growing body of circumstantial evidence lengths low levels of vitamin D and patient's blood with worse outcomes from COVID nineteen. The pandemic emerged and started spreading in the Northern Hemisphere at the end of winter, when people's vitamin D levels are typically around their lowest for the year. Last month, scientists at Northwestern University in Boston found COVID patients with severe vitamin D
deficiency were twice as likely to experience major complications. They think it has to do with a sluggish immune response that's more likely to result in a hyperinflammatory condition, sometimes referred to as a cytokine storm. A two thousand and seventeen meta analysis of twenty five random minds control trials show that vitamin D supplementation protected against acute respiratory tract infections.
Harvey says it deserves further investigation. Uh it's one of a number where there's some reason from previous studies with other infections, from laboratory experience to think there could be some role that that particular agent could play in reducing the frequency of disease or the severity of disease, or both. If it did turn out that supplementation vitamin B could interrupt the severity or the occurrence of this disease, it would be tremendously valuable because that's a very safe agent
widely available. It could be very useful, but like all of these others, it needs to be investigated and evaluated in a double blind, randomized controlled fashion. Last week, the Lancet Medical Journal reported that researches in London plan to begin a study to investigate how diet and lifestyle factors might influence transmission of the coronavirus, as well as the severity of COVID nineteen symptoms, speed of recovery, and any
long term effects. They aim to recruit at least twelve thousand people and have some preliminary results by the summer. As one of the researchers commented, at best, vitamin D deficiency will only be one of many factors involved in determining the outcome of COVID nineteen, but at least it's a problem that could be corrected relatively safely and shapely. That was Jason Gale in Melbourne, and that's our show today.
For coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our
editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Thanks for listening,