The U.K. Health System Threatens to Buckle

the country exceeded four thousand daily fatalities. It's a number that was once unthinkable. The data were compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg. Around two hundred and seventy seven thousand new cases were reported nationally on Thursday. That's among the highest numbers for the entire pandemic. As states report surging cases following the holidays. Hospitalizations also hit a record,

according to the COVID Tracking Project. A new study shows that the COVID nineteen vaccine, developed by Faser and bioan Tech, may protect against the new fast spreading variants of the coronavirus. The study, done by Researchers at the University of Texas Medical Branch and supported by the two drug companies, honed in on a crucial mutation in the virus's spike protein that is common to both fast spreading variants. Antibodies in the blood of people who had been vaccinated were able

to neutralize a lab created version of the mutant virus. Finally, Italy is among several European nations who are tightening up restrictions in the face of a surging virus. The government will close bars and restaurants as part of the clampdown in Milan and its surrounding area, as well as for other regions. Croatia extended similar restrictions until January one. Hungary

and France have also prolonged virus curbs. Cyprus has tightened restrictions, including a requirement for people to send text message when they plan to leave home, and Irish businesses closed due to coronavirus restrictions should assume they won't reopen before the end of March. And now for today's main story. The United Kingdom's national health system is in danger of breaking under the weight of its raging coronavirus outbreak and the

next few weeks will be its biggest challenge yet. The UK is at the epicenter of the European struggle to contain COVID nineteen. The death toll is the highest in Europe and daily infections are at a record. Medical staff say they may be forced to turn people away from hospitals if the latest lockdown fails to stop the spread quickly enough. I spoke to London based reporter James Payton about the fast spreading new virus strain and the next

crucial weeks for the country's health system. Britain has been severely affected by the pandemic. This week it regained its place as the worst hit European country in terms of fatalities, and I'm just wondering, you know, how are Britain's hospitals and health care system holding up with all of this

going on. Yeah, well, it's a pretty bleak picture at the moment, and a race against time in many ways in Britain, because the virus is surging again, as you know, fueled in part by at least in part by this new variant of the virus that was detected in the UH the country last month. The Mayor of London has recently described the pathogen as being out of control. Health officials said earlier this week that one in fifty people

in England has COVID nineteen, which is quite a stunning statistic. UH. And at the same time, the country is sprinting ahead to vaccinate as many people as it possibly can in the shortest amount of time to try to alleviate pressure on the health system, which is already stretched. You know, entered the pandemic UM in a in a difficult position. So UM. You know that the health system in the UK survived the first wave of the Corona virus despite UH,

you know, significant worries at the time. UM. You know, the government asked everyone to go the extra mile. UH during the first lockdown in the spring. You you may recall that people here in Britain stood on their doorsteps and applauded health workers every Thursday night. UH. Children painted rainbows to stick on the front windows of their homes.

Everyone rallied around UH doctors and UH and nurses. But you know, this time, the fatigue, I think and the frustration is is growing and there's you know, a concern as you as you mentioned that the system will be able to cope with this latest rise of infections. As I mentioned, it's you know, it's a system that was under pressure for years coming into this crisis, facing a nursing shortage of about forty thousand unfilled positions, among a

number of other constraints. So, you know, people across Britain are seeing all this alarming data and hearing anecdotes of hospitals inundated with patients, people spilling out into the corridors. Uh. You know, ambulances lining up outside hospitals. UM. And you know, health workers that I've talked to and some of my colleagues have talked to UH tell us that they are exhausted, they're stressed, unsure if if hospitals will be will be able to cope. So the nation is now in its

third lockdown. As as infections, you know, continue to climb, death toll in the UK is now at more than seventy eight thousand, that's the highest in Europe. UH and UM, the next few weeks are really going to be crucial in answering answering those questions. And you know, as you mentioned, this already stressed system, the NHS, they now have a a dual role in some ways to not only continue to pre I care for a rising number of COVID nineteen patients, but also to carry out a massive public

health immunization program. I mean, is there a concern that, of course the NHS may not have the resources to do this, this two pronged responsibility. It's a it's a really good question because, as you say, on the one hand, the system is dealing with this sharp rise in cases. Uh. And then on the other hand, it's being asked to carry out a mass immunization program and not just you know, vaccinating millions of people. But this is an unprecedented operation.

It has you know, their production hurdles, logistics issues, public education challenges. Uh. You know, we're talking about vaccinating tens of millions of people in you know, hopefully you know, a matter of months. Uh. So clearly this is just putting, you know, even more strain on the system. You know, there has there has been a lot of planning in recent months up until this point. The UK is relying,

for instance, on the military. I think it's about five thousand members of the armed forces that uh, you know have been called on to help, uh, their volunteers. Uh. It's a it's a truly you know, massive effort, but you know, snags are inevitable. Other countries as well, the US, other governments across the European Union now are experiencing some of these issues. Um, it's not going to be easy and I think it's gonna take it's going to take some time. But clearly that is uh, you know, that's

adding to the pressure. But the UK has is really betting. I mean everyone uh is betting on vaccines right now. The scene is the exit strategy here globally. But the UK has made a really, really big push. They were the first country in the Western world to begin rolling out vaccines, moving ahead of the US and the European Union.

Country acquired uh, you know, hundreds of millions of doses uh, of several different vaccines in advance, including the fightser BioNTech vaccine, the homegrown shot from Astra Zeneca in the University of Oxford and and the Madurna vaccine which actually just got authorized in the UK. You know, our Bloomberg tracker shows I think about one point five million people have been have been vaccinated thus far. That's more than two percent

of the population. Uh. So it's it's it's you know, the big strides that have been made, but it also underscores how this is, how this is a long road. And as far as you know, the state that Brittain is in right now, with the rising number of cases, fatalities, etcetera, has this at all changed the vaccine rollout process? I mean, as you said that it's been quite rapid moving thus far, but is there any kind of expectation that this might

slow down because of this strain on the health care system. Well, what's interesting is that the UK is actually in recent days has maken has taken a pretty bold step kind of going out in the limb a bit in uh in altering how it's going to do this. And a key part of the plan is to UH space out the two doses of the first vaccines that have been authorized, the first two vaccines, to delay the second dose by

up to twelve weeks. And so the goal here is to stretch out supplies to maximize the number of people who get some level of protection in the shortest amount of time. So the government says the data justify that decision and that people get good protection after the first shot, and the lengthening that interval doesn't weaken the immune response

after the two dose courses completed. But there are a lot of doubts about that, about that policy and what happens during those twelve weeks, how quickly or not immunity could wane. US officials and now European Union officials as well just today have said that the data just don't support such a decision. And and you know, it's not kind of proud into this step to deviate um from what was tested in the clinical trials, but it's an interesting strategy that's sparked a really lively debate as the

as the urgency grows. So you know, some people have have seen this as a bit of a gamble um. You know, one person I talked to earlier this week, the head of the British Society for Immunology, said that the risk of not taking a step like that is actually much greater. You know, he said, in a in a normal world, we would stick to the plan that was, you know, that the dosing that was tested in the clinical trials. But he said, you know, uh, we're not

in a normal world at the moment. You know, things have changed and there's there's you know, we're in this unprecedented crisis. Uh, so we have to take a different strategy basically, So the UK is making change just to try to maximize the number of people who are who are immunized, and it's it's too early to say how that will unfold. Obviously, if it if it works, um, you know, the UK could have a significant advantage. And if it doesn't, obviously that could leave the country vulnerable.

So we'll just have to wait and see. And as far as some of the strategies that the UK has taken, I mean, would you say, in your opinion, the most recently announced lockdown, um that began I believe earlier this week, that is part and parcel of this attempt to try and at least mitigate these overwhelming stresses on this health care system. Yeah, I mean that's definitely that's definitely true.

And I think for the for the government, uh, you know, we have to remember that going back over the past year, the last ten months, really the government has been under a lot of pressure and there's been a lot of criticis is m of the way that the UK has has responded. You know, people have said that the country hasn't moved swiftly enough or efficiently enough to try to get the virus under control. There's been scrutiny and criticism

of the strategy for testing and contact tracing. People have said that the lockdowns have been carried out, you know, too late. We're imposing more restrictions this week with vaccines this the stakes are immense, right we are talking about, you know, for the country and for the government sort of an opportunity to uh, to redeem itself and to uh, you know, to get control of this virus, to protect

a significant portion of the population. As you can imagine, UH, some people aren't sure the government will be able to deliver. The government has a strategy of or has a target rather of vaccinating about fifteen million people by the middle of next month. Obviously very vicious UM. And you know, some based on the government's track records, some are doubting whether that is is achievable. UM. But clearly there are

enormous resources going into this effort. We'll just have to wait and see, but it's going to be a very important and critical uh, several weeks ahead for the country. That was James Peyton and that's it for our show today for coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world. Visit Bloomberg dot com, slash Coronavirus, and if you like the show, please leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best

way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topha foreheads Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by James Peyton. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening, m