Welcome the prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day sixty nine since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. Scientists have determined that the virus first showed up in bats in southern China, but just how it jumped from bats to humans isn't yet clear. That uncertainty has allowed conspiracy theories to bubble up, some of them promoted at the highest levels of government. But first, here's what happened today.
US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw altogether from the World Health Organization. If he made good on the threat, it would leave Chinese leader Jijang Ing as leader of the global fight against the pandemic. Trump posted a four page letter detailing his grievances with the WHO to Twitter late last night. In the letter, he called on the group to demonstrate independence from China. He gave no other details about the reforms he was seeking or what specific
changes might unlock funding. Researchers from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are finding evidence that even though some patients have tested positive for the coronavirus after recovering, those people aren't capable of transmitting the infection. That's a positive sign for regions looking to open up as more patients recover. It suggests those who have recovered from COVID
nineteen present no risk of spreading the coronavirus. Finally, the US and Canada will keep their borders shut to non essential travel for another month. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Donald Trump announced the extension of the border closure to June one at separate events in Ottawa and Washington. The agreement to restrict travel between the two countries, which has been in place since March, was due to expire
this week and now our main story. The Internet has been teeming with theories, some of them pretty wild, about the origin of the coronavirus. Scientists have been saying for more than three months now that the coronavirus most likely originated in a species of bat found in the south of China and managed to somehow jump into people, but alternative explanations have been floated. U S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has repeatedly blamed China, and specifically a laboratory
in Wuhan that was researching dangerous viruses. Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale talked to a World Health Organization scientist to tease out the most plausible explanation for where the virus came from. How and where the SAS CoV two virus emerged isn't known. Scientists have a rough idea, but pinpointing the exact way the virus came to spread in humans
is crucial for preventing it from happening again. Dr Peter ben Embrick is a scientist with a w h O in Geneva who has investigated the source of numerous outbreaks, including bird flu and the coronavirus that causes Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome. I asked Peter what proof exists to demonstrate
the genesis of the virus that causes COVID nineteen. We know that it's closely related to a group of other coronaviruses that have their origin in bad population, so that's why we're talking about this bad link or bad origin.
What we know is that in previous similar events, these bats coronaviruses before they jumped to humans, first adapt in another animal species that is more closely related to humans and with whom humans have more regular contacts, which is allowing that time and space that is needed for the varrus to adapt to two humans. So we have some kind of missing link in that story between the original bats, origin of the virus, and when it started to circulate
in humans. Many of the first cases and Workhan were linked to a massive seafood and fresh producce market in the city. It's like a farmer's market. In Asia, they're called wet markets. This particular market sold a variety of animals, including some wild ones that shoppers could buy live and
have prepared ready for cooking. When STARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome emerged almost twenty years ago, it's thought to have originated in bats and jumped into civets, a small, lean, mostly nocturnal mammal, fore crossing the species barrier a second time and infecting humans. Wet markets in southern China were implicated in the emergence of STARS, so it was reasoned
the Wuhan market is where SARS Cove two might have begun. Now, the evidence suggests that COVID cases occurred before there was a definite link to the market. The market might just have been a place where the virus was amplified and spread readily amongst storeholders and shoppers and the people with whom they lived. With the market theory and doubt. Alternative explanations have circulated. One is that the coronavirus was created in a wa lab where it was either deployed as
a bioweapon or accidentally escaped into the community. One of the reasons that theory has gained traction is that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has a so called bs L for or maximum bio Containment facility, where it studies some
of the planet's most dangerous pathogens, including coronaviruses. The laboratory in in one is is well known for its research on these viruses, on bat viruses, coronaviruses, original anything that they have done, so they are they are famous in a way for that work and for improving our understanding of coronaviruses and the relations with bat and the evolution over time. Peter and I spoke over Zoom on May seven. I wanted him to explain the alleged circumstantial evidence linking
the lab with the outbreak. What evidence is there that the virus might be synthetic, might be man made, What evidence exists for that none to give you a clear answer. I haven't seen a single piece of evidence that would indicate a hint towards a man made, constructed virus, he says. Scientists have studied the genetic sequences of the coronavirus in detail. All agree that the virus is natural and has not
been hooked up in a lab. And the reason for why they are so clear in their conclusions is that if it was a constructed virus, we would recognize or see the bits and pieces that were used to construct this virus. It's a little bit like constructing a car with legal legal bricks. You would recognize the different bricks at the end. Another reason is that the protein the virus uses to enter ourselves and cause an infection in
our lungs is unique. It's different from the one that the SaaS virus used back in two thousand and three and hadn't been previously described. If we talk about science fiction, everything is possible. And if somebody had constructed this virus and had been able to avoid all these counter arguments, I just put forward that would have been a genius in somebody like he as ahead of everybody else in this field. So again no strong arguments at all for
the man made versions. Scientists are able to look at the mutations that occur each time the virus replicates to gauge the period and which it began circulating in humans. Peter says around October November is when it started to adapt, and in fact, people tracing the IRUs back to its roots means finding the earliest cases and determining where and
how they might have been infected. Right now, there's nothing to determine how the virus go from bats into people and if another mammal acted as an intermediate host and what that animal might have been, But some intriguing signs
are emerging from cats. So far, we've studied several animal species to see how susceptible they are to this virus and whether they could be playing a role in the in the events, and cats and feelines seems to be specious that is most susceptible to the virus and so they can get sick, but they can also transmit the
disease to other other cats. And then the big question is can an infected cats also transmitted to humans and could they have been playing a role at the start of this of this event that remains to be seen, but it's it's a it's a possibility that is being explored. But it's also show importance of protecting our pits and protecting animals in the same way that we protect humans.
When we have a confirmed case of COVID, that that person should be isolated and family members and colleagues and also pits or animals in connection in close contact with this person should also be protected so we avoid creating another reservoir for this virus in different animal population. The pandemic has identified some gaps in our understanding of the pathogens lurking in nature. That's especially the case that the human animal interface, where viruses risk crossing the species barrier
and spreading among people. Peter says we can fill some of those gaps through better surveillance and traceability of farmed animals. He also says that regardless of whether the web market and Wuhan was where the first person was infected, we need to improve these kinds of food markets around the world.
We have a lot of markets where people have tradition to purchasing live animals that are then slaughtered on the spot or nearby, and these practices, unfortunately often done with in poor hygienic conditions and with unnecessarily close contact between the public and the sellers and the animals. So that's and where animal species are mixed together and kept in pages for a long time, and all that gives, of course, these viruses much better chances to adapt and to jump
and to infect humans. And if if hygiene and safety, addressibility and surveillance and so on, we're in place um and and well in forth. So it's important to keep to keep these markets, but it's equally important to improve them and and make them safe and hygiene. If the current cry has taught us anything it's that as human populations expand and encroach on wildlife habitats, the risk from
dangerous animal viruses continues to grow. And in an interconnected world, epidemics that were previously localized can race around the globe with blinding speed. It means everyone everywhere has a stake in doing whatever we can to mitigate this threat. That was Jason Gale in Melbourne, and that's our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show. Please leave us a review and a reading
on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is produced by Tophah foreheads Jordan Gaspoure, Magnus Hendrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Francesca Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.