The Science of Beating Variants

the country is preparing to enter a new lockdown. Prime Minister Mario Droggi, who came to power just last month, has promised to triple the pace of vaccination, but the specter of fresh restrictions is a particularly unwelcome form of deja vu for many in the country. The World Health Organization said immunizations with the astra Zenica vaccine should continue, even after at least ten nations suspended its use. The vaccination halts come amid concerns that the vaccine leads to

an increased risk of blood clots. An expert group is assessing the reports of clots in some people who had received doses of the inoculation. Finally, Michigan said it would begin vaccinating all people sixteen years and older starting April five. The accelerated timetable was released as Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced that a mass vaccination site capable of administering six thousand doses a day would open March at Ford Field in Detroit.

And now for today's main story. Fast moving variants of the coronavirus seen in England, South Africa and Brazil have sparked concern around the world. Researchers worry some may diminish the potency of existing vaccines and complicate efforts to escape

the pandemic. As COVID nineteen cases started to climb in early British scientists decided to track the evolution of the pathogen, and, as health reporter James Peyton reports, this project gives the country and others the chance to respond quickly if alarming

changes arise. The plan for the group, known as the COVID nineteen Genomics UK Consortium, came together about a year ago, but Nick Loman, a professor at the University of Birmingham, says not everyone was convinced, and as the virus traveled around the world in the ensuing months, the genetic changes seemed insignificant, but then actually people thought it was a bit of a waste time, partly because there was very little genetic diversity, like all the genems are very very similar.

There was an element of you're doing a very expensive stamp collecting here, you know, while there's a pandemic going on. The scientists went on with the project just in case. Mutations arise naturally all the time. While the vast majority are innocuous, sometimes they make viruses more or less infectious.

They can even increase their power to kill. For example, the flu virus that caused the pandemic, it's thought to have undergone a mutation in the middle of the outbreak that made it more leafal Today, the hope is that rapidly analyzing the genetic material of the virus on a large scale can help determine whether new versions of the

pathogen are becoming more dangerous. Researchers crucially wants to see if these mutations might be able to evade or outrun vaccines developed by companies such as five Maderna and Astra Zeneca. Evidence that variants could pose a problem was already mounting last year, but A turning point came in early December. Scientists in the UK were studying a surge of cases in southeast England and noticed something highly unusual. Changes in the virus stuck out like a long branch from the

rest of the data in the family tree. Loman calls it an evolutionary burst. The variant, later called B one, was found to have more than twenty mutations. One of the great things about having this UK data set is that we can be pretty sure and not missing things, you know, and not missing large fractions of the population with infections because we have such dense sampling. So the question for the for that is what happened there? Why do we get suddenly a burst of twenty mutations that

are kind of seemingly came out of nowhere. Further examination showed version of the virus was likely to be much more transmissible. It also appeared to be on the move, fanning out across the country. Six days before Christmas, Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivered a solemn address to the nation. He warned of a new and fast spreading variant. Standing behind the podium displaying symbols for hands, face and space.

The UK's campaign to fight COVID. Johnson outlined a plan to impose tougher restrictions movements and travel in the speech broadcast on networks like the BBC. He also pointed to the UK's genomics team. When the science changes, we must change our response. When the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of defense. And as your Prime Minister, I sincerely believe there is no alternative open

to me. Without action, the evidence suggests that infections would saw, hospitals would become overwhelmed, and many thousands more would lose their lives. Since then, the work carried out by the British organization has intensified. Today it's analyzing about thirty thousand samples a week, triple the level of just a couple of months ago. It's also more than twice the activities seen in the US, even after Centers for Disease Control

and Prevention head Rochelle Wallinski stepped on the accelerator. The Biden administration meanwhile announced nearly two hundred million dollars in funding to track variants. Sharon Peacock is director of the UK Consortium. She and her colleagues planned to expand training around the world for technicians, policymakers and others, while also

strengthening partnerships with similar operations. She worries some countries will get left behind that would put them at a disadvantage in detecting mutations that might undermine immunization campaigns, not just

in those regions but everywhere. So we're reaching a point in the pandemic where it's possible that we have a divided world where some parts of the world have ready access to vaccines and also genome sequencing, and so that they compare the information up for the two and get the most effective vaccine roller that they can in other parts of the world where there's limited vaccine availability but also very limited almost no sequencing available, and so they're

they're working without knowledge of what variates are occurring in that country. Nowhere is safe until we know exactly what's happening across the world and everyone is protected, and that means genome sequencing. The World Health Organization has been vigilant over the past year. It's working with countries to bolster detection, shipping samples to labs, and providing supplies, guidance and funds. Still, Loman says the global approach is patchy and wealth isn't

necessarily a prerequisite. The Democratic Republic of Congo has a good monitoring system, driven by its work in combating ebola. Others do not. The system works best if everyone is equipped to share genetic data, track emerging variants, and take action.

We want as many eyes on this as possible. Is actually a relatively small number of people that do this work, and so you know, we really want everyone that knows me of ourgy and knows immunology, knows genomics to be to be looking at this data all the time to kind of spot the next the next emergence of something interesting. The UK organization shares its information through a global database. Almost half of that coronavirus data has come from Peacock's group.

But massive genome sequencing alone isn't enough. Jeremy far Our is director of UK based research foundation Welcome. He met with the British scientists a year ago in London to discuss their plan. He says the analysis must be connected to broader public health and disease tracking efforts, the whole issue of genomic surveillance, so we can track these variants today, tomorrow and for in fact, for years to come. It's going to be absolutely critical. Um that needs to go

on at a global level. It needs and this is really important. I think it needs to be locally owned. This has to be convened, coordinated at a global level. The data needs to be shared and it but it also needs to be shared equitably. A year later, scientists are wrestling with a different set of uncertainties. While developers are optimistic they can keep pace with the virus and tweak their shots quickly if necessary, the future is unclear.

The possibility the world will need coronavirus vaccines at regular intervals, just like flu shots that require annual reformulation books increasingly likely peacocks. As researchers. Understanding of the viruses increased considerably since the crisis erupted, but there's still a lot to learn in the next phase of the pandemic. She sees a few different potential scenarios for how the virus evolves from here. Are we going to see a plateau in

that so we know what we're dealing with. Oh, a better situation where us really involves out of kind of fitness and becomes less fit, so it becomes more like the common cold. The worst case scenario is that the virus actually has more in store for us, and that it becomes it could cause more serious disease. And we don't know the trajectory of the virus at the moment.

The coming minds are going to be critical. Health officials in the UK have detected ten cases of a concerning variants that originated in Brazil and more twists and turns are seen as inevitable. Peacock points to a couple of mutations when in South Africa that have shown the ability to diminish, though not overcome, the power of vaccines. The risk of vaccines at the moment I believe to be low, and the key is to get the vaccines that we have at the moment rolled up as fast as possible

to as many people as possible. That gives us the best chance of really controlling COVID nineteen cases in the world, and that's the best way of reducing variance arising because they don't have the opportunity to go through an infections side flin therefore developed mutivations. The stakes are high for Britain. The UK Project and the country's efforts to secure and roll out vaccines have been bright spots for a country

that has faltered in other ways. Britain has the highest death toll in Europe and has faced intense scrutiny for what critics see is a string of missteps earlier in the pandemic. Now Prime Minister Johnson has declared that an end to the crisis is in sight. He plans to ease lockdown rules, keeping a close eye of mutations will remain an important part of the strategy. Countries like the UK will need that surveillance, not just in this crisis, but the next one as well. And and and that

was James Payton. And that's it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com Flash Coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a review at a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis podcast is produced by Tophur Foreheads, Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Special thanks to John Lawerman. Original music by Leo Sidrin.

Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts, Thanks for listening.