The Risk to Overweight People

here's what happened in virus News today. Today it brought more mixed messages about the status of a coronavirus relief bill in Washington. After shutting down talks earlier this week, President Donald Trump approved a revised economic stimulus offer that's according to its top economic advisor, Larry Cudlow, but it is unlikely Congress will agree to it. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the differences are probably too big and the time is too short for Congress to agree on

a new comprehensive stimulus package before the election. Despite President Donald Trump's renewed interest in striking a deal, the rate of coronavirus infection in England almost doubled in a week. It's adding to concerns that a fresh surge of the pandemic is spreading throughout the country. One in every two hundred and forty people is infected. That's up from one in four hundred and seventy a week earlier, according to

the Office for National Statistics. The figures come as the UK government prepares to announce new restrictions for the worst hit parts of the country, potentially including the closing of restaurants and bars. Finally, the Spanish government declared a state of emergency for the Madrid region, as Europe's leaders step up efforts to contain an unrelenting surge in coronavirus cases across the continent. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government made the

decision at a special cabinet meeting on Friday. The premier is struggling to impose his authority on regional officials who have resisted restrictions on movement. Declaring a state of emergency gives the Spanish leader extraordinary powers to order new constraints and now for today's main story. Obesity is a known risk factor for severe complications of COVID nineteen, but scientists are learning that the link between extra pounds and severe

COVID nineteen is even strong younger than they thought. This week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that people who are merely overweight, not just the OBEs, maybe at high risk of serious disease from the infection. The warning, posted on the agency's website on Tuesday means about two thirds of Americans could face higher risks. I spoke with health reporter and a court about what it means that

more people than previously thought could be vulnerable. So why would just having a few extra pounds make you that much more susceptible to serious complications from COVID nineteen. You know, Laura, it's a really good question. The evidence is still emerging, even on the subject of the risk of sort of having some extra pounds. You know, we already knew that people who were OBEs, you know, were at higher risk and are at higher risk for having severe cases of

COVID nineteen. And this is something you know, doctors noticed pretty early in the pandemic that they were seeing obese people coming into the hospital, you know, being hospitalized at higher rates um And so this is something that's been established for a period of months. Now what's new is that the CDC is now saying we have some data to believe people who are overweight could also be at

risk for serious forms of COVID nineteen. And I mean that's a pretty big deal because and we're talking about you know, nearly seventy two percent of American adults are overweight or obese. It's about forty of American adults are obese and then about or overweight. So that's a big population here, and that brings up a good point of how is the CDC assessing those who are defined as

overweight or obese. Yeah, so we're going straight to b M. I. You know, body mass index, which is basically just a way of measuring your your weight and your height, you know, and coming up with an index. So it's overweight people have a body mass index of twenty five to thirty and obesity is a thirty and higher. So you know

that example you could give us. You know, if you're a man, you're five ft eleven inches, you weigh two hundred pounds, you're considered overweight, you gain twenty five pounds. Let's say you're you're considered obese and you know, there are a lot of issues with b m I as a as a measure, but it is the measure that we have right now for for thinking about people's weight. Um. And that's what the studies that the CDC used to

make this determination looked at. They looked at COVID nineteen outcomes and b m I and they found this connection, you know, as b m I went up between that and more severe COVID nineteen outcomes. And and how does this differ, say from some of the other comorbidity ease of COVID nineteen. What what is actually the risk? You know? We we do know just in general that having you know, a little extra weight or or you know, a good amount of extra weight can be tied to these negative

health outcomes. And that's what's made actually untangling this question about obesity so complicated because people who are are obese often have other medical conditions right that we know put you at risk for COVID nineteen. UM. You know, things like maybe uh, you know, diabetes, for instance, But we we know that obesity seems to put you at even higher risk than even just looking at those medical conditions

a person may have. In general, we know that these metabolic changes tie to access weight can reduce the immune systems ability to fight disease. Um. That's what I spoke to nutrition professor about. And you know that there are other reasons that people who who are obese could have worse health outcomes with COVID nineteen, things like reduced lung

capacity and sleep apnea. You know, I think the scientists is still emerging on this one, but there has been this concerning trend identified by researchers, which is at people with higher b m I s do seem to have

these more difficult experiences with COVID nineteen. And I think what we should really take away from from this, even though the science is still emerging, as I've said, is that you know, this idea of who is at risk, I think people like to downplay it and like to silo it and say, oh, it's just people with other

medical conditions. I'm healthy, it's all good. And I think you know, first of all, people who have medical conditions, you know, like diabetes, are people, and it's concerning that they would be more at risk for this number one. But number two, you know, we're now talking about potentially the near vast majority of Americans who could be at

greater risk from COVID nineteen. So you know, to say, oh, it's just you know this person or that person, like this is a lot of people we're talking about now here. And what about the inverse argument that now everyone, it seems, is at high risk for serious complications from COVID nineteen. If you look at how the CDC has presented this information, they're saying, we know that obese people are at increased

risk of having serious COVID nineteen. You know, along in that category as people with cancer, people with cp D, you know, heart conditions, people who are immun compromise, smokers, people with type two diabetes. Right. Uh. And then if you look at being overweight, which they say there's a little bit less data for, and so they're you know, people who are overweight maybe at increased risk, it's not

a certainty at this point. You know, they also included that category people with asthma, cystic fibrosis, liver disease, people who are pregnant, people with type one diabetes. So you know the reality is, yeah, a lot of people are at risk for this thing, and and we may only know later you know, exactly who and you know exactly what the consequences are for people who survive COVID nineteen

as well. So the jury is still out now. As you mentioned, population numbers of those who classify as overweight or obese are actually quite high in the United States, including the President of the United States himself, President Trump. How has President Trump's weight potentially affected his experience of or recovery from COVID nineteen. It's that's a good point.

This is a high profile example of exactly what we're talking about, right, and um, you know, Trump's position has said that he is you know, on the up and up here, but it is worth noting that when his diagnosis was announced, there was a lot of concern. He's pretty squarely in terms of the high risk groups. He's pretty squarely there. Right. It's not just b M I, although he's you know, clinically considered obese, but it's also his age, it's the fact that he's a male. You know.

I'm not sure we know that much more about the President's health, but I think it's important to note, you know, he had a pretty aggressive treatment regiment, and it's sparked concerns that maybe he was sicker than we were being told. You know, he was taken to the hospital. You know, we know he was treated with pretty much almost all the drugs you can treat a COVID nineteen patient with its DECKS and Methodzone, which is a steroid uh from Dezevie, which is a drug that's it's shown to help people

who are who are hospitalized. Um, and an experimental drug from Regeneron that's an antibody cocktail. How might this new risk of being overweight factor into the development and even say, the efficacy of a COVID nineteen vaccine. Yeah, it's an important subject, right. We've been talking about vaccine development for so many months now, and what we know is that

vaccines can be less effective for obese people. So we know that specifically with the flu vaccine for instance, And this does raise questions about, you know, how should development be handled of these vaccines for certain subgroups like these people? Right? You know, is there a need for vaccine developers to look more specifically at how obese people do in these trials and see if these vaccines actually work as well for them? Um? You know, we are still far from

having a clear answer that any vaccine really works at all. Um. But that's going to be an important part in rolling out this whole thing, because this is a large segment of the American population. Again, as as I've said a couple of times now, now many pharmaceutical companies have announced that they are in trials and late stage trials of a potential vaccine, and they have been testing this vaccine

on numerous groups. Do we know if they are specifically testing their proposed vaccine on groups that are overweight or even obese. It's a good question. We know that they're at least thinking about it. Um. You know, along with this question of diversity of clinical trial population and an age of clinical trial population, it's not totally clear that companies are going to say we need to have you know,

sevent of clinical trial participants be obese for instance. Um, But you know, I spoke with someone involved in the work to recruit for these clinical trials and and you know, he said, it is likely that because so much of the population is obese, that that's going to be represented in the trials. In other words, like hopefully, because you know so many Americans are obese, this will also translate

over into into the trials. But you know, we we do have reason to worry about this because we know pharmaceutical companies try to make their products look as good as possible, right, and they want someone who's healthy as healthy as possible to be in this trial in order to show their their products work. So there is a concern that they may be screening for for you know, to keep fewer obese people in the in these trials.

We we don't really have date on that, unfortunately, but you know, there's reason to be hopeful and the reason to be concerned. I would say that was Emma Cord, and that's it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one D and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to

help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tover foreheads Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Emma Cord. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.