Racing to Update the Vaccines For Variants

that have endured strict lockdowns are gradually opening up. Hong Kong will double the number of people who can eat together at a restaurant if the virus remains contained over the lunar New Year. Officials who spoke in a a briefing on Wednesday said they would also open other venues like cinemas and beauty parlors next week. Germany's Angela Merkel proposed a gradual reopening today while arguing for the current restrictions

to remain in place until early March. In Germany, disease rates have declined steadily since their December peak, but things aren't loosening up everywhere. The Japanese government is planning to keep its state of emergency in ten prefectures in place, despite earlier reports that it was considering lifting it in some areas. According to local broadcaster f n N, officials are maintaining restrictions to ease pressure on the medical system.

Japan will start vaccinations by the middle of next week. Finally, Eli Lily combination antibody drug was cleared for emergency use by the US Food and Drug Administration. The drug will offer doctors a treatment option that is expected to help to combat mutations. The FDA authorized the treatment for use in COVID positive adults and children twelve and older who are at high risk of getting very sick from the disease.

And now for today's main story. Just two months ago, the incredible performance of new vaccines from Moderna and Fighter had people cheering for an imminent end to the pandemic. But an onslaught of fast spreading and potentially dangerous mutations of the virus change that. So now, even as pharma companies ramp up production in the early stages of a massive rollout, they are racing to retool their vaccines ategies.

I spoke to health reporter Robert Langrith, who reports that booster shots could give drugmakers a lucrative new revenue stream. What makes variants of COVID nineteen so problematic when it comes to how effective of vaccine might be, say a vaccine from MODERNA or Fiser. Yeah, so what's happening out there?

As you know more than a hundred million people around the world who have gotten infected, that essentially means, you know, a hundred million chances of mutation, and you accumeate enough chances to develop mutation, sometimes the virus will start to mutate and evolve in ways that are that are bad for us. One way that's happened is that in the UK's evolved to be more transmissible, and that is the B one one seven strains now rapidly spreading in the US.

Now that strain seems the vaccines seem to be pretty effective against that string. But what people are really worried about are some mutations that have occurred in South Africa and then some similar ones in Brazil where the virus appear to have evolved in a way that may allow it to you know, partially escape the effects of current vaccines and the strain they're people they're most worried about.

Uh as to be one three one strain in UH South Africa, and in some trials so far where vaccines from both Johnson and Johnson and the vaccines from novavacts have been tested in South African patients recently that their vaccines were less effective in South Africa where that variant is common. Now, we don't have direct data on this

from the Maderna and Fiser vaccines. What we do have is data, kind of lab data suggesting that those vaccines won't generate as high levels of antibodies against UH, this vaccine partially evading strain. Both Maderna and Fightsers still think their vaccines will be effective, but they may not be you know, quite as powerfully effective. So if it does turn out that they are not as effective as they had hoped against some of these variants, what are the

options for drug makers going forward with this problem? The problem is the worry is as you know, these these these more people get vaccinated with existing vaccines and these strains start to spread. You know, these strains could be selected for and spread even more widely. And then there's an additional worry that there could be you know, they could accumulate addition mutations that allow them to even further

and more more significantly escape the vaccines effects. You know, that's kind of a nightmare scenario, kind of a total escape Australia of the virus which doesn't exist here. But that's kind of the worry. So what companies are you know starting to retool and think about, you know, how to come up with potential either new versions of vaccines to account for these new strains or booster shots, uh that account for the rains will be at on the top of the existing vaccines, say six or twelve months

down the line. Now, Maderna has announced that it is gonna, you know, work on some booster shots shot studies, including one particularly you know, developed for the South Africa strain, the fisor CEO Albert bord Law. He said in a

call with investors in February two. He said it was increasingly likely that these mutations, uh, you know, there's gonna likely to be booster shots in the in the future and kind of like a long term market for these vaccines, which, of course, uh you know what's bad I guess for the world in some ways is potentially good for drug makers. Good that means drug makers will have products to sell. These vaccines is not just some kind of a one

time thing. They'll products to sell in the future. So how long do we expect it will take for these booster shots to be developed and made available. Good thing about messenger RNA is a revised versions of vaccine can be developed quite quickly because it's a technology involves you know, synthetic chemistry, doesn't evolve growing anything, growing viruses in cells or proteins in a lab at the synthetic chemistry, so

that that can be done faster. That's good news. The tricky part is that it's an evolving situation, and you know, you don't want to develop a booster shot that turns out to be obsolete a few months now. You want to kind of figure out what the main strains that are emerging that have reduced efficacy and you know, developed new versions of the vaccines against those. And that's kind of a tricky thing because we need to get consensus and kind of what's happening out there. So it's an

evolving situation. The FDA Food and Drug Administration has indicated is that you know it's going to allow companies if we do need booster shots or your second generation versions of the vaccines it's gonna allow companies to move much faster. They're not gonna have to do trials, efficacy trials and thousands of thousands of patients like to do the first time. There's going to be kind of streamline process based on what we've learned from the first round of vaccine. So

these studies should go much faster. I mean overall, if not a cause for panic, but it doesn't cause for concern. And I just want to kind of break down the US a little bit more, you know, just in terms of how booster shots might work. Is it possible that, for example, any of the drugmakers moderna advisor, Johnson and Johnson whatnot, would develop a booster shot and that would be linked to combat, say just the South Africa variant, or could a booster shot address a number of different

variants of COVID nineteen. Yeah, and so there's a few possibilities you know out there. You know, Yes, one, as you developed there's one strain that's worriesome of you develop a new new booster shots just against a strain like

just against South Africa. And another possibility is that, hey, there's like two or three strains are kind of worried about vaccines might not be quite effective against circulating the world, say three months from now, and we want a booster shot that kind of accounts for all three of them, or a new in the new second generation vaccine that

accounts for all three of them. And then and the authorities and powers that be, you know that public authorities get together and kind of agree what strange should be in a new vaccine or a new booster shot. I mean, that's kind of what happens now each year with the food vaccine, and there are you know, comparisons being made like to that. Now, coronavirus you know doesn't mutated the rate that the flu does. But you know, another hand, we've liked to spread a lot and a lot of

people getting a lot of chances to mutake. So you know what happens with the flu is you know each year, you know, authority trying to kind of consent some consensus and you know what strains are going to be circulating a most prominent a few months from now, and then the design a vaccine on that basis, and something similar you know, could be done for booster shots for you know, coronavirus vaccines and booster shots in the future, So there

is a thought out there. It seems increasingly likely, you know, there's not going to be a one and done situation the vaccine. There's a good chance we'll need some kind of booster shots in the future, especially if these vaccine

evading strains become more prominent. And what's not clear right now is how often when the booster shots is this because you know, it has the virus stomach mostly significant mutaining is going to do already and we've already seen the bad stuff or some more bad stuff to come. That's kind of a mystery. And then you know, how how long will protection lasts and start to fade with

existing vaccines. That's not clear at all. So it's just not clear at all to the extent we need booster shots how frequently they will be, whether it be just like once, it will be like every few years, or you know, worst case scenario, every year, and that's that's simply unclear at this point. So how might this effect someone who is still considering whether to be inoculated right now or whether they should wait for these later generation

vaccines that might be more effective against variants. One thing, you know, I do want to note is that by no means there's a reason in the US to put off getting a vaccine or delay getting a vaccine. The vaccines we have here are still, you know, highly effective against most of the extrains that are that are circulating in the US, and the sooner you can get vaccinated, the better, and that would really really help. So this is but this is by no means a reason not

to get inoculated in the US. If you have an appointment, did you go rush out and do it for your sure? That was Robert Langrath. And that's it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a review and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best

way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for foreheads Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Robert Langrith. Original music by Leo Citron. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesco Levy is Bloomberg's head of podcasts, Thanks for listening, lest