Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three forty five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. We're learning more and more about how well vaccines are working as millions of shots get doled out every day. How soon will we be able to get back to normal life, and when can we say we've beaten the pandemic.
But first, here's what happened in virus news today. The US is approaching an ugly milestone few imagined when the first COVID nineteen cases were diagnosed a year ago, five hundred thousand deaths. That arc is likely to be reached in the next few days, depending on whose count is used. Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci called the number terrible and historic on NBC's Meet the Press. He said, while the recent decline in case counts is good, it doesn't
signal that we're approaching herd immunity. New findings in the UK, the first country in the western world to roll out COVID nineteen vaccines, show the shots provide a high level of protection against infection and illness after a single dose. According to initial data in a study of medical workers. One dose of the fiser and bio en tech vaccine reduces the risk of infection by more than seventy percent, and that number goes up to eight after the second dose.
The report adds to evidence that vaccinations are already having a significant impacting countries with the most advanced campaigns to protect their populations. Finally, the last six weeks have seen a positive decline in the spread of the virus worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. Mike Ryan, head of the who's Emergencies Program, said on Irish radio that the
good news shouldn't spur governments to reopen too soon. Vaccines appear to protect against severe illness in almost all cases, he said, including from variance and Now for today's main story. Nine vaccines have proved effective at protecting people from developing symptoms of COVID nineteen, but we don't know yet how good they are at preventing asymptomatic infections and keeping vaccinated
people from passing the virus onto others. The good news is that preliminary signs suggest they do at least some of both. I spoke to Senior editor Jason Gale to find out what we're learning about how the shots work as vaccination campaigns continue around the world. So to what extent can we attribute this decline we're seeing in COVID
nineteen cases to vaccination, Well, it's difficult to say. COVID nineteen cases have been falling for six weeks or so globally, and that roughly aligns with when vaccination programs began, but it's hard to tease out the contribution of vaccines versus factors like lockdown's double masking and other measures that can reduce transmission. We also don't know yet how good vaccines
are at stopping infection. So we've heard that a number of current vaccines are more than effective at protecting people from getting sick from COVID nineteen, But what I'm hearing is that we don't actually know whether they will stop people from being infected with the virus that causes COVID
nineteen stars COVIE two. Correct. Development of the vaccines that are being used now started more than a year ago, and back then the objective was to create vaccines that would stop people getting seriously ill from COVID and needing hospitalization, and the vaccines do that, But the trials that tested their efficacy weren't designed to gauge their effectiveness at preventing
asymptomatic infection. And we know that people who are infected but have no symptoms can still spread the virus to others, and stopping that spread the spread of the virus that's critical for getting the pandemic under control. Is that right? Yes, of course we want to stop people getting sick and dying from COVID, but ultimately we want to stop sarskvy two from circulating. For one thing, we know the more it circulates, the more chances the virus has to mutate
and for new variants to emerge. So broadly looking, what are the chances that COVID nineteen vaccines will actually stop transmission. Well, data are emerging and we can expect a lot more information in the coming weeks from countries like Israel, which
has vaccinated the greatest proportion of its citizens. As of early February, more than a quarter of people fifteen years and older and of the population over sixty five were fully vaccinated with the fires Beyond Tech vaccine, and in Israel, the dominant strain there is a variant first reported in the UK researchers are seeing signs that the vaccine is preventing infections and COVID cases, hospitalizations, and debts are falling at a much faster rate in those who have been
re vaccinated compared with those who haven't, and that declining rate is great news. But what about other strains of COVID nineteen or other vaccines. There's no comparative data yet to know how the different vaccines stack up against each
other and the various strains that are circulating. Based on laboratory experiments and clinical trial data, it looks like there will be some differences, but lab studies are a little bit limited as they typically look only at antibody levels in blood samples and not other components of the immune system. So we'll get more information as these vaccines are used
more widely in large populations. The other thing, um, the other important thing to say is that vaccine manufacturers are monitoring the data closely and have already started working on new versions and combinations to optimize efficacy as new strains emerge. Looking big picture, do you think there will ever be a point that we can actually eradicate COVID nineteen. No, Only one human disease has been officially eradicated, and that's smallpox.
The world was able to achieve it because we have an effective vaccine against small box and only one species known to get the disease, humans, but we know with saskov too, it probably exists in nature in bats and possibly other creatures, so eradicating it will be virtually impossible. But we know COVID nineteen can be controlled as it has been here in Australia. So we're safe and effective
vaccines that can be shared equitably across the world. We have a really good chance of eliminating it, at least as a public health threat. That was Jason Gale, and that's it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a view and rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners find our
global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor foreheads Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo sidrin Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.