Europe's Coronavirus Déjà Vu

what happened in virus News today. Global coronavirus cases have exceeded forty million, with a pandemic showing no signs of slowing. Infections have reached record numbers across Europe, while the US and India are averaging more than fifty thousand cases a day. Although it took six months for the worldwide tally to reach ten million cases, subsequent milestones have come increasingly faster, with the latest ten million cases added in just thirty

two days. Global cases reached a single day record of more than four hundred and fifteen thousand on Friday. China's economic recovery continues to accelerate thanks to an aggressive coronavirus containment policy that has allowed local factories to reopen. China's eastern port city of ching Dao conducted ten point nine million coronavirus tests in only five days after thirteen infections were discovered in the city. It's another demonstration of China's

ambitious strategy in mass testing wherever infections are reported. Ching Dao's campaign was completed roughly three times faster than a similar experiment by Wuhan in May. Chinese cities have adopted a batch testing method that enables as many as ten samples to be assessed simultaneously. However, the strategy is rarely used in Western countries, who have questioned the methods accuracy

and credibility. In the Czech Republic, hundreds clashed with riot police in protest against social distancing rules and other measures imposed by the government in an attempt to stem the most acute spread of the coronavirus in Europe. The police used tear gas, water cannons, and an armored personnel carrier to disperse some two thousand protesters who assembled at the city's Old Town Square. Meanwhile, Poland has started a construction of the first field hospital for COVID nineteen patients at

Warsaw's National Stadium. The facility has planned to have five hundred beds and will fully be ready later this week, which brings us to today's main story. Millions of Europeans are facing tighter restrictions on their movements. London, Paris and Vienna are enforcing stricter curbs, while Ireland is preparing some of the region's toughest measures. On Monday, the government of Whales announced a two week firebreak lockdown designed to curb

the spread of the coronavirus. All non essential retail outlets, including pubs and restaurants, will be closed from October to November nine. I spoke with Bloomberg reporter Katherine Boseley but how Europe is hoping to control this new wave of coronavirus infections and whether another round of restrictions and lockdowns can offset the economic devastation in the region the pandemic

has already caused. On Monday, Wales announced that was going into a two week firebreak lockdown um a response to the resurgence of COVID nineteen cases we're seeing throughout Europe, and I was just wondering if you might unpack what is driving this new wave. Well, governments are scratching their heads just like everyone else. One hypothesis is that it's the cold weather we've had. The weather changed for the fall about two weeks ago, which was sort of in

time with the resurgence and cases. And with the cold weather, people spend more time indoors, which means that they're more encrowded rooms and that seems to be an ideal breeding ground for the virus. Most European governments seem to have acknowledged that a second wave was always possible, but this wave seems to be much larger and much more difficult to contain than expected. So what went wrong Well there,

it's not clear if it's really larger. Certainly we've had more positive tests than in numerical terms than we did in March and April. However, scientists in Germany have hypothesized that in fact it may be that there is wider testing now available and in effect, had there been as many tests available back in the in the early spring, that the tests would have been much higher. So it's not clear. The hospitalizations now are generally, I think, still

lower than they were in the spring. European countries are facing an uphill battle, it seems when it comes to lockdown fatigue. What's the sense of whether Europeans are willing to go through another phase of tighter restrictions. Well, I think certainly the government's had a lot of more public goodwill during the first round of lockdowns and that the political capital is definitely expiring and people are getting pretty frustrated.

There was a protest in a little town in Italy I think last week when people when it was announced that there would be a new round of restrictions, people just kind of said they'd had enough. And obviously there had been protests also, for example in Germany of people um arguing that there, you know, civil liberties were being

infringed by the government. So there definitely is an element of of lockdown fatigue, and clearly that is I think one of the reasons why governments, for example Italy all Switzerland, they are trying to keep the economy alive or trying to be as targeted as possible rather than a blanket crackdown, because the more people's livelihoods are at stake, the more the less likely they will be to to cooperate. If

you were to identify one success case in Europe. Do you see one country potentially weathering the storm better than it's comparative neighbors. It's very difficult to say. I would say that certainly Germany and Switzerland have weathered the storm better than many other countries. I mean many other countries then, for example, um France and Spain, both in entire terms of healthcare and in terms of um cost to the economy.

But that doesn't necessarily mean that that is because the policies that they enacted were the Germany or Switzerland enacted were better. It may just be that obviously they had um more robust health care systems because they are are are wealthy countries and the nature of their economies are

perhaps not as oriented to tourism and service sector. Then are the areas of economic activity that the pandemic disproportionately affects, And so thinking about these systems and that economic impact from the pandemic, I mean, what are the broader plans that European leaders are are hoping to do and have already done to try and offset this negative economic impact from a potential general lockdown that might be coming down

the road, or just in general tighter restrictions. When the pandemic initially hit earlier this year, governments replicated, UM, we're very eager to replicate Germany's model of quote sabites, which are furlough programs and which basically the government peace companies which who have to uh suspend work due to the economic crisis and therefore people get paid at least partial part of their salaries UM and and get laid off.

That's the idea that's been very widely used. It where they used in Britain, it was used in France, it was used in Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Austria. Though it's very common they're already before the crisis though this was really the key own of UM of many countries response.

In addition, they gave out various loans interest free, free or low interest loans to companies that were affected UM and then there was also a moratorium on insolvencies, so companies that were um, you know, at risk of of going belly up actually were sort of got a stay of execution. So those policies are likely to continue. There's obviously also in a bit more less immediate but bigger impact, there is the use seven D and fifty billion euro rescue fund that's likely to sort of be more of

a driver for the recovery. But it's quite clear that all these fiscal and also monetary policy stimuli will have to be left in place, and it's now is definitely you know, policy makers have warned now is not the

time to withdraw stibulus. Is there a worry that this stimulus cannot last the length potentially that we're looking at for this pandemic that now that we are facing the reality that we won't necessarily or potentially have a vaccine until one, is there a concern that the stimulus just simply cannot continue for the length of time that we

may be facing. Yes and no. Of course, in in in theory, that is always a concern, and certainly I think in in Britain those where there was a dispute about the expiry of the furlough program, and now in the North of England the government has had to announce new support measures for for municipalities that have gone into lockdown a second time. On the other hand, you know, policymakers generally, for example in Germany, have been very very eager to stress that you know, these support measures are

not going to expire any time soon. So what might be a successful roadmap for Europe going forward? Again, if we're thinking about a pandemic that might be here for the next at least until the end of what might be a way to look forward and prevent wider lockdowns, wider restrictions and offset that negative economic impact. Well, I think you're asking me the million dollar question that nobody

has the answer to. UM, certainly, I think the you know, golden way will would be to styra corpse, in which you're able to keep a grip on or a lid on infections and certainly on serious cases and deaths, and at the same time manage the economy in such a way that people are still as much as possible able to go to work and live as normal lives as they can. That's clearly what the government in Italy is trying to do. The government in switzerlanda is as well.

UM Germany I think also UM is probably going to try to find a middle ground somewhere, and in an ideal case, French Finance Minister Lumier has said, you know that, uh, you know, a second real lockdown is just going to be incredibly costly for the economy, so they're just going to have to try and see what works to to

satisfy both the economic and the health care imperatives. So in terms of this recent announcement by Whales in which everything is shut down anything considered non essential, it doesn't sound necessarily like this is something many European leaders want to do or are thinking that there is tolerance for going forward, that there will be additional restrictions, but not an overall lockdown approach as similar to what we saw

in March or April. Well, it's hard to say. Maybe, of course, if if the situation, the healthcare situation becomes worse, and we're already seeing you know, record infections, it gets even worse in hospitals become overburdened, they may have a little choice. That said, you know, the public is aware of the economic costs that all of these these measures have had, so and of course these are are also voters, so I have politicians will have to figure out how

to essentially square the circle. Germany never really had a full full lockdown the way France or Spain had so um and managed to get through the first wave very well. So I think that there will be a politicians and decision makers across across your car just going to have to try and take baby steps and and do the best that they can. That was Katherine Boseley, and that's

it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor Forheaz, Jordan Gospore, Magnus Henrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Catherine Bosley.

Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.