A Bubble Made Up of Millions

promising coronavirus vaccine. The company is requesting emergency clearance for the drug today. That's after a new analysis showed that it's highly effective. The price Mary analysis found the vaccine was over nine percent effective, The results f lining up with preliminary findings released earlier this month. Another plus, the drug could be especially effective at preventing severe cases of the disease. None of the participants in the trial who

would receive the vaccine developed severe COVID nineteen. New York City's positive COVID nineteen test rate jumped above four percent based on a seven day average. According to Mayor Bill de Blasio. De Blasio also announced that in person viewing of the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree, a huge tourist draw would be controlled to allow for social distancing. The mayor closed public schools earlier in November when the average positive test rate hit three percent, but will reopen schools next

week for younger students. Finally, cases of coronavirus in England fell ear percent after lockdown measures were rolled out in November. According to a new study. The finding show cases were rising as the country entered a four week lockdown on November five. As national restrictions were rolled out, cases declined sharply. The report by Imperial College London and IPSOS Mori UK

was published today and now for today's main story. In Canada, the COVID nineteen outbreak has affected much of the country. In Quebec, where three in five of Canada's virus deaths have hit Rage over new lockdowns is palpable in Ontario. Meanwhile, I see us are filling up out West caseloads are hitting records, but four eastern Canadian provinces comprising two point four million people have banded together, barred outsiders and huge

tightly to health guidelines. As a result, the region has a COVID nineteen death rate that's one tenth the rest of the countries, with almost no one noticing Atlantic Canada has become a pandemic. Shangri law I spoke to Montreal Bureau chief Sandrine Rostello about the outpost of quiet obedience that calls itself the Atlantic Bubble. What exactly is Canada's Atlantic Bubble, how does it work exactly and when did

it come into effect? So the bubble is something that four provinces in Eastern Canada created to sort of salvage their their summer season. You had four provinces, so there are New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, then Newfoundland and Leaped a door, which each had pretty good results at the end of the first lockdown. They they were cautious in reopening, their cases were really low, and they

each had basically very stringent rules about entering the province. Actually, if you are just a Canadian who wanted to go visit Nova Scotia during the summer, it was just not possible if you didn't have a really good reason, and even then you had to self quarantine for two weeks.

So these provinces basically said, um, you know what, we're going to open to one another so our residents can visit the other three provinces and we can have some tourism, because otherwise it was going to be a complete catastrophe for the economy. And and overall, how has the bubble done? I mean, how have those four provinces performed in comparison to the rest of Canada in terms of say, case

rates or mortality. So they've had incredibly low numbers, and I think it was a big it under the radar for the longest time because these provinces, you know, altogether they have about two point four million people, so it's not a lot. They are their populations are aging, you know, especially in Newfoundland for instance, if you look at it, the the medium age is actually seven years higher than than Ontario. So they were very careful in the way

they handle this. And they have a population that was quite compliant too, So they did really well. I mean, think of that p I. Of course, it's an island, but it has has had no depth at all. And if you look if you take the four provinces together and you bring back you bring that back to a rate per hundred thousand people. They've had about three deaths per hundred thousand people. If you compare that with Canada

as a whole, that's one tenth. That gives you an idea they I think last night checked they had no COVID case in the hospital. These are things you you haven't heard of anywhere really. So they've they've done extremely well. They've been extremely cautious, and they've they've had um measures,

you know, like safety measures that are respected. Even though this this bubble has been remarkably successful, we should say in terms of COVID nineteen, have there been any negative effects, um, let's say economically speaking, in terms of tourism or the

Atlantic economy generally. Yeah, absolutely so. So first of all, you know, all economies are connected today, so you know the fact that uh, there's less demand from restaurants in New York for say, uh you know, lobster from Nova Scotia, or you know, all sorts the way exports in general have been affected. They've been hit for sure, but on top of that, you know the specially high um level

of cautiousness costing them greatly on the tourism front. You know a lot of these places come to life during the summer. That the summer season is not very long. It can get pretty cold in Canada, and tourists just didn't come this year. For instance, in Nova Scotia in August, tourism was down sevent So. Yes, the Atlantic bubble enable people to travel and you know, visit within the bubble, but that can't replace you know, like people from Alberta

and Ontario who also have the budget to spend. It has taken a big toll. I think people who are talked to in tourism have been patients, you know, but they're also looking at what can be done to open up the bubble, perhaps not just now because you know, the second wave is also affecting them somewhat, but down the road they hope to find a solution. Have there been any I mean, we've seen this across the board

with COVID nineteen some unexpected economic developments. Have there been any bright spots economically speaking for the bubble real estate story of Canada? Yes, So what's been interesting is that

the real estate market has been really dynamic. You know, the sort of things that people is routine in Ontario or in places like Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, people overbidding, bidding wars, that kind of thing is new to those business were not much has happened in recent years that the market, the real estate market was already starting to pick up, and that's been confirmed. You know, that's the the effect of people haven't spent much during the pandemic. They and

they want more space. We've seen that, you know, across the board, but also real estate brokers I talked to said they've heard from locals that Marytimers as we call them, that made a move to Ontario movie els where in Canada for their career and now that they can work from home, that there looking into baying back home, or baby boomers looking to to come back and you know, cash out on that big mention they bought in Toronto and and come for much cheaper in their their home province.

Despite this let's let's just say success of the Atlantic travel bubble, it does seem like recently it has been in danger of popping. Right, so you know, these places are not immune from what's happening elsewhere. Just as a reminder, New Brunswick sits next to Quebec. Quebec you know, as had the most most death uh the whole of Canada. At some point, I think it was about sixty percent of old Canadian COVID death happened in Quebec. So that was the main reason why New Brunswick really like made

getting in much harder. That said, you know, uh, these provinces have a lot of workers who are so called rotational workers who who come in. There's a pro took called for them to sell fivesolate and tests and all these things, but they also cannot prevent their own residents from traveling elsewhere in Canada. There's been an increase in important cases over the past few weeks and that really

scared off some of the provinces. So what we saw recently, um we saw Newfoundland and p I withdraw from the bubble for at least two weeks and and see what happens next. So you know, people have been talking about breaking the bubble falling apart. That really has nothing to look forward to in Canada at the moment. Uh, the numbers are still pretty good. What the characterized is this provinces is that they've had really low numbers. They've been

very cautious and so that's what they're doing right now. Again. You know, by saying, okay, let's get out of the bubble. We might come back, but numbers in Nova Scotia and New bruns were called worrying us. So we were drawing for a bit and looking ahead. Obviously we have the holidays coming up um potentially a lot of interprovincial travel. Do you think that the bubble is likely to hold for say, December and into I think the bubble as as it is the internal travel perhaps. I think everyone's

looking at this very closely. But but again, like for instance, I'll give you my own example and my my partners from New Brunswick and he hasn't seen his family for for more than a year, and there's no visiting for Christmas because even though technically it would be allowed in you would have to self isolate for two weeks on arrival, you know, and then what go back immediately to Montreal.

I mean, these these rules, as long as they're here, are really going to deter travel from elsewhere in Canada. So I think they have this level of protection in place even for the holidays. That two weeks self isolation policy one that we see throughout Canada is obviously a major deterrent um. But it sounds like there are plans

potentially that that that period could be shortened. Yeah, so what we're seeing right now in Alberta for the past almost five weeks I think, but five weeks now, there's been a pilot in place too to test people on arrival at the airport and also at a one land crossing and as soon as people get those tests while they self isolate because you know, when you get into Canada you have to self isolate for two weeks, and even if you're a resident, even if you come from

a country with low risk and that has really hard international travel. So right now in Alberta, this pilot test people on arrival. Once they get their results usually after thirty one or thirty six hours, if it's negative, they can sort of go back to quasi normal life. They have to you know, test a second time. But that could be almost a game changer in the short term for the industry because if the quarantine could be short

a lot more people presumably would travel. And that's something that Atlantic Provinces people in the tourism industry that depends so much on it are following closely because if their government were inspired to adopt something similar that would really help revive and salvage next summer. That was Sandre and Rostello,

and that's it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one twenty bureaus around the world, visit bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for Foreheads, Jordan's Gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, and Nick Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by

Sandrin Rostello. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine and friend Cessca Levie. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's out of podcasts. Thanks for listening.