Tim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence. “Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The White/Black Educ...
Jul 19, 2022•49 min•Ep. 98
Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests. “Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna ...
Jul 05, 2022•39 min•Ep. 97
Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates. “The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: All Our Kin by Carol B. Stack. “Neighborhoods and Violent ...
Jun 21, 2022•40 min•Ep. 96
Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana. “Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “C...
Jun 07, 2022•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 95
Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior. “Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Does Welfare I...
May 24, 2022•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 94
David Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, " Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace ." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!
May 17, 2022•49 min•Ep. 93
Zoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records. “Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment” by Ama...
May 10, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 92
Pedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil. “De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Wearing Body Cameras Incre...
Apr 26, 2022•55 min•Ep. 91
Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes,...
Apr 12, 2022•56 min•Ep. 90
Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:...
Mar 29, 2022•45 min•Ep. 89
Molly Schnell talks about how exposure to school shootings affects students. “Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes” by Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, and Hannes Schwandt *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local...
Mar 15, 2022•48 min•Ep. 88
David Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, " Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice ." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!...
Mar 08, 2022•51 min•Ep. 87
Andrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior. “Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Episode 1 of P...
Mar 01, 2022•58 min•Ep. 86
David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime...
Feb 15, 2022•46 min•Ep. 85
Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers. “The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky &...
Feb 01, 2022•50 min•Ep. 84
Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime. “Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mel...
Jan 18, 2022•59 min•Ep. 83
Jason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact. “Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.] *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN ...
Jan 04, 2022•53 min•Ep. 82
Elizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops. “Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by John Knowles, Nic...
Dec 21, 2021•32 min•Ep. 81
Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPIS...
Dec 07, 2021•44 min•Ep. 80
Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it. “Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “War Making and State Making as O...
Nov 23, 2021•33 min•Ep. 79
Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western. “Thinking, Fast...
Nov 09, 2021•26 min•Ep. 78
Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OT...
Oct 26, 2021•57 min•Ep. 77
David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!
Oct 19, 2021•46 min•Ep. 76
Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting o...
Oct 12, 2021•45 min•Ep. 75
Kerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts. “Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Love, Hate a...
Sep 28, 2021•50 min•Ep. 74
Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism. “The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Effects ...
Sep 14, 2021•44 min•Ep. 73
Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime. “Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, P.J. Brant...
Aug 31, 2021•35 min•Ep. 72
Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia. “Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPI...
Aug 17, 2021•46 min•Ep. 71
Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police o...
Aug 03, 2021•52 min•Ep. 70
David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!
Jul 27, 2021•44 min•Ep. 69
