ABC Listen, podcast. music and more. It's the case that's captured the attention of the world. The mushroom case. Three people have lost their lives. On the menu was beef wellington made of mushrooms. Erin Patterson is charged with murder. She says she's... I'm devastated. I love them. Police say the guests had symptoms consistent with the ingestion of death cap mushrooms. Hear the podcast on the ABC Listen app. than you were at the time that Mr Albanese was elected.
This is gutless. This is absolutely gutless from the Albanese government. Hello and welcome to The Party Room, the last party room before Australia votes. I'm Patricia Carvellis. joining you from Gadigal land on the Eora Nation in Sydney with Fran. Yep, I'm here too. I'm here too on Gadigal land. I'm glad you can see her. PK, it's so great to see you. PK, this is our fourth. election campaign together here on The Party Room. I mean...
Forget serenity, longevity, I'm all for it. This is fabulous. We are. We're winning a landslide together. We are. Like the major parties might not be able to get the sort of the people they're losing rusted on voters. We're getting more rusted. We're getting more rusted. Come on board, voters. PK, so it's...
I think at this point, every week we've said who won the week. It's no longer a question of who won the week, who won the campaign, and this could be a very different answer, who will win the election. We're going to be joined by David Crowe. He's the chief political correspondent for the nine newspapers. But another week down, what do you think? Well, it's funny you say that. I reckon if you ask... Peter Dutton and he'd had you know a couple of beers or something and he could be honest.
he would tell you that he thinks that Anthony Albanese has won the campaign. That's just, you know, conjecture. Like, I'm not. He'd concede that there hasn't been a good campaign. But he would say that he's lost the last three years, right? That's how he would see it. That's how they do see it. How do I see it? I think it's obvious that Anthony Albanese has won the campaign. It's indisputable that he's won the campaign.
You know, I was a friend that just texted before saying, what on earth is going on with that drive-by by Josh Frydenberg? I love the term drive-by. The drive-by. Because Josh Frydenberg, which we'll talk about a little later with David Crowe, but, you know, Josh Frydenberg lost his seat at the last election, has been... You know, campaigning for Amelia Hamer who fought.
in that seat of Ku Yong, which is very, I'm going to be watching that seat that night. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nick Ryan hasn't had a great campaign. There's a lot of different kind of views on what's going on in Ku Yong. That's been a bad campaign. And some horrible anti-Semitic. stuff that happened yesterday when neo-Nazis turned up like whoa I just some real ugliness there but but I digress the the point is
Elbow's won the campaign. It's obvious. Elbow's won the campaign. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll win a majority, though, and that's what he wants. Okay. David's commentary is always pretty on the money, so I'm looking forward to that. Both leaders are blitzing the country in these last few days. Yesterday, the Prime Minister took off six states in three days. That's a lot. Peter Dutton has been aiming for 28 seats in this final week.
The PM, though, did drop by the National Press Club, which is a bit of a set piece that Prime Ministers tend to do in this final week. Not always tend to do it. And, you know, it was a pitch we've heard before but it went a little further and a little harder. This election is a choice. between two fundamentally different visions for the direction that Australia should go. In the total absence of anything positive to say about the future...
The Liberals are urging Australians to go back to the past, back to a darker and nastier and more extreme version of the cuts and conflict and culture wars. that people rejected less than three years ago. So that was the Prime Minister's pitch, and we're going to talk about some of those culture wars in a minute. But Peter Dutton, well, he returned to a message we've heard before. In fact, we play it every week on The Party Room. It's up there in our opening montage, Are You Better Off?
At this election, Australians have a choice and people are out now making that choice as they're voting. It's a choice about whether Australians can afford three more years of labour. And I'd say to Australians today who are thinking about... The last three years, are you better off today than you were when Mr Albanese first got elected? And for most Australians, the answer is no. Okay, so returning to that, although some of the data is showing...
Fran, that rather than people, which is a problem for Peter Dutton when that question is asked, the question is answered often with no by people, right? Yeah, we're not better off. But they are looking at the future offer. That's the issue. Which is what Labor's whole pitch is. Yeah, and that's working, which is... Look at the next, how will you be in three years' time under him, under me? You'll get a permanent tax cut, not just a one year. Like people, voters are smart. They have...
Labor has sold the message, and I think some people have got it, not all, that it's a temporary relief. And that's certainly helped, I think, Labor's case. But the stakes are high, Fran. I mean, they're super high. And while the coalition is now seen... I think publicly as the underdog, which is weird because I think, and one thing we are going to reflect on, I think for a long time, well, I am, I don't know if anyone else will, I think they will, is why on earth
A few people in Labor have said this to me too, like, why did Peter Dutton raise expectations so high going into this election? And through this election. Weird, right? He said we will win before the election and through it, he's still saying our polling is showing something much better. I'm feeling good.
That sort of thing. Well, his polling might be showing something much better in terms of being able to gain a lot of seats. Why didn't he go for underdog status is what you're saying. I don't get it. Well, I think because there was such a clear anti... Labor anti-Albanese feeling in the electorate. I mean, we're going to talk about the polls in a sec. But it's hard to not remember.
that just three months ago, Anthony Albanese was deeply unpopular. Labor was deeply unpopular. Has all that sentiment just dissipated? Has it? You know, what do you think? What do I know is better, right? You know, and you've said this a number of times, Labor HQ is still nervous. Yeah, absolutely. Because of that. Absolutely. They absolutely are. Can I say, yes, with a caveat, they say still.
prefer to be us than them. Yeah. Right. So nervous with some data pointing to positives for them. So not just totally nervous, feeling better. I mean, the stars have aligned for them. Inflation figures. I'm feeling so much better than if, you know, you would have talked to them as I did eight weeks ago. Not feeling great. Well, particularly 12 weeks ago, shall I say. Not feeling great at all and really worried about, you know, being once's as the term goes.
So things have clearly, you know, some of the metrics have worked their way. You know, Trump. The interest rate card. Everyone's heard this stuff before, but just to remind you. Trump again. Good inflation figures. showing you know giving people all of the signs that stuff's about to get better for you it's not going to be like it was in the last three years But I think that still it's a seat-by-seat proposition. Backlash is still there, Fran. It's not all gone.
It's naive to think that it's just dissipated. The strength of it is the question. And yet. Let's go to the strength of it. Yet we keep getting poll upon poll, two more overnight, neither of them good news for the coalition. The Redbridge poll has both major parties with a primary vote of 34%. Now, that's bad news for both of them, right? But it's... It's a jump of 1% for Labor from the last election result, which they won.
And it's a fall of two percentage points in the primary vote for the coalition, if that's right. So that's very bad news for the coalition. It gives a two-party preferred vote to Labor of 53 to 47. Now, you know, there's a question mark over the figure because...
of what seems to be the surging One Nation vote we're seeing come out in the polls, and importantly, a stronger preference flow from the minor party, from One Nation to the coalition. That's why the coalition, I think, is still quite bullish. in some of these long list of Labor seats that they've got on their target list. I count up to 14, including seats like Werrow, Whitlam, Hunter, McEwen, Hawke, Bruce. I mean, some of these seats.
you would never have imagined might even be on any kind of coalition list. But PK, I do think we've got to mention the YouGov poll, which is around this morning. It's a really different kind of calculation. It's a different kind of poll. They poll a large number of voters across 150 seats. In February, we talked about it because
It was a standout. It showed a likely coalition win. Yeah, that was the Mardi Gras episode, wasn't it? And possibly a coalition majority. Exactly. Today's YouGov poll shows Labor winning a likely majority of 84 seats, which would be... Huge, if true. But as I say again, this is a very different kind of poll. Yeah. Look, I'm... sceptical of that. I know. I'm very sceptical of that poll.
You know, I don't, like, I'll see. I think we have to wait for longer for YouGov and evidence. I'm not going to just smash them, but, you know, they did predict that Kamala Harris was going to win, remember? Oh. in the US and the college, no, didn't happen. So I just, I'm just. I don't know. I don't mean it, but like I'm a very careful lady and I, it's not just the 2019 thing.
I think instincts matter. Talking to lots of people matter. It's very unscientific what I've done, but I can tell you in 2019, and I don't think this is exactly the same as 2019. I don't think that. But in 2019... I never thought Labor would win, but all of the polling was saying Labor would win. So I'd say, well, that's what the polling says because, you know, like I'm not a pollster. Like I know my limits.
Importantly, Labor thought they would win. Yeah. Not all Labor. No, but Bill Shorten thought he would win. I spoke to key people in Labor at the time who were like. Yeah, they were nervy of the goat track or whatever it was. So.
Yeah. I think most people, though, do agree that for the coalition to win a majority is... I don't know it is a miracle day it is a miracle and you know as Scott Morrison said I believe in miracles can I just say one thing which I think I really have been wanting to say somewhere and it makes sense to say it on the party room because it's like where I like to say things with you I am surprised at how much.
Peter Dutton has borrowed from the language of Scott Morrison with the quiet Australians and all of this. That emerged this week again. I thought that was strange, mainly because I think the situation is different. But also, why are you reminding people of that bulldozer? And I say bulldozer, he called himself that. I'm not trying to be rude about Scott Morrison. It's his word about himself.
I just wouldn't. You know, I know what he's trying to do, say, hey. I'm your guy. Yeah, and there are quiet people who aren't noisy to pollsters and who. are cranky with labour and trust our economic management. I don't know. But you're right. I noticed that phrase creep in this week too, the pitch to the quiet. There's quiet Australians out there, he said, and our polling is showing we're doing much better than the published polls. He also borrowed again though.
from that other guy, which is Donald Trump, when he, I mean, he seemed to me to be reaching for the break glass culture war. option this week. He talked about the quiet Australians. He talked up their polling. He started branding The Guardian and the ABC the hate media. That sounded very... Well, he sort of said it once.
Well, he said it. He said it. I'm not saying he shouldn't have said it. His mind has said, well, that was tongue in cheek. That was tongue in cheek. But then how did they explain this comment three days later on Fox FM when he was asked his tips for a good election night? Alcohol is the first essential ingredient, I'm sure of that. Responsible drinking as well.
Not watching the ABC, it'd be a good start. If any young ones listening at home, forget the ABC. And if you do that, you can probably start with a good night. Okay, so that's a joke. too, right? Well, then you'd miss Anthony Green calling it. Yeah, exactly. Anthony Green's final election. What terrible advice, Peter Dutton. Shocking advice. And yes, both jokes maybe, but both
the ABC and The Guardian, and you don't do that by mistake. Then there was the welcome to country debate in the wake of the booing, the welcome to country ceremony at Anzac Day, which was just terrible, and Peter Dutton said it was terrible too. But then he was asked on Sunday if he supported Welcome to Countries generally. He thought they were overdone. And the next day he was asked whether a Welcome to Countries should be part ever of an Anzac Day Dawn service.
No, it would be my answer to that. It's ultimately a decision for the individual organisers of the events. But listening to a lot of veterans in this space, and Anzac Day is about our veterans, I think... If you're listening to their sentiment and we're respectful of that sentiment on Anzac Day, I think their majority view, would be my read of our vets, would be that they don't want it on that day. Okay.
They wouldn't want it on that day. Some veterans don't want it on that day, but. RSL says it's fine. Yeah, RSL says it's fine. And the RSL has been on a big, big journey. You talk to Aboriginal people about the hurt they feel. directly intergenerationally about coming back from wars, fighting on the front line and then coming back as second class citizens.
That is, I have many Aboriginal people in my life and I have never seen, like that pain is so real to fight for your country, to enlist like that. It's such an insult. It is. So. Hardening that position up. Well. I said this this week. I think it's important that we just say. He thinks the numbers are on his side. And if you look at whatever evidence we do have, there is a sentiment, which is, oh, there's too many of these. So he's trying to press that button.
But that's also kind of getting mixed up, the welcome to country and the acknowledgement of country too, you know, and they are different things. They're all different. Yeah. Some... I'm just going to say what I really think. Some boring Anglo person giving a very, very mundane acknowledgement of country at the start of the meeting, right, which I've seen them done very badly, might make you roll your eyes.
Mainly because I think, did you just read that from a piece of paper? Do you know what you're even talking about? And then there is a welcome to country, which can be really kind of symbolic, meaningful, just like singing our national anthem can be very powerful for people. These are symbols that are about national identity and place. and culture. All right. So then that happens.
So he's trying to put in people's heads, hey, I'm with you. It's a nod, right? Is it a vote switcher, though? I'm not convinced it is. I tell you what I think. Reminding people of The Voice, though... and suggesting that Labour is going to resurrect that voice, I do think, I'm not saying it's going to like give him a landslide, but given the unpopularity of the voice and his success there, he went there because he had a little...
opportunity because of something Penny Wong said in the Batuda podcast, here she is. Look, I think we'll look back on it in 10 years' time and it'll be a bit like marriage equality, don't you reckon? Like I always used to say marriage equality, which took a such... bloody fight to get that done and i thought all this
It'll become something. It'll be like people go, do we have an argument about that? They weren't even like kids today or even adults today, barely kind of clocked that it used to be an issue. Remember how big an issue that was in culture wars? Penny Wong did say that, and she recorded that interview, I'm told, a few weeks back, so I'm not sure she knew it was going to be played in the last few days. But even so...
What she said then did not amount to Labor would legislate in the next term of government for The Voice, not even close to it. Peter Dutton didn't just suggest it, PK. He said it will be one of the first orders of business for a Labor-Greens government after the election, which is...
But he pounced on it because I think he knows, as you said, what could be more impactful, more recent in a lot of Australians' minds is that referendum. They were angry about it. That's when Anthony Albanese's popularity just nosedived. People have said a lot how much the Prime Minister seemed to lose his mojo from that result. He's only apparently looks like he's only just got it back in this campaign.
And, you know, it was a significant boost for Peter Dutton, no doubt about that. He's gone to it. He's gone to it again and again and again in the last 24 hours. They have really gone for a bro. Was it what Penny Wong was saying or was she being verbal? Well, it wasn't what she was saying. So I think that's right. But, you know, you have to be very careful, especially if you don't want doors opened at key times of the campaign. By the way, I suspect...
I don't have this confirmed, but in Labor headquarters they know this. It's actually a little unlike Petty Wong. She never, she's so. She looked relaxed in that clip if you watched it. That's the thing. I mean, that's the thing when you speak to fellow travellers. So I call it out on the right. I'm going to call it out on the left here too. When you speak to fellow travellers, right, Just like at the start of the campaign, we had Peter Dutton talking about tying school funding to curriculums.
and woke agendas in the comfort of Paul Murray's arms in the Sky News Forum, we now have... Penny Wong in the comfort of the Batuta Advocate, kind of progressive funny dudes as far as I can see. I don't really listen to their podcast, but I see they work. Well, there's kind of an official undeclared link. There is. They're progressive guys. They're allowed to make podcasts. I think that's the world we live in, right? People vote with their feet. Thank you for voting for us.
And she says, you know, she talks about the struggle for equality with marriage equality and Indigenous rights. That's what she's really talking about. That took 10 years, she said. Yeah, she's talking about the long struggle, which I think progressives kind of get what she's saying. But this close to an election, you open any door, especially to a leader who has campaigned so vigorously on this and you lost the referendum.
Of course he's going to take the opportunity. Well, he's bashed the door down. He's smashed it. She had to clarify. That's an evidence. that it kind of didn't hit. And she clarified and said, no, it's gone. The voice is gone and the Prime Minister backed it up and then the Deputy Prime Minister backed it up and...
you know, bloody, bloody. But interestingly, what Peter Dutton has also done today is he's had to clarify, he's dropped that vow that you were talking about there of changing school curriculums, you know, because they were indoctrination, too woke. And he's pulled that back. So... There's still a lot going on, PK. Yeah. Should we bring our guest in? Let's do it. David Crowe, Chief Political Correspondent at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Melbourne Age. Welcome to the party room.
And it's great to be talking to you both. I feel relaxed already. Well, thanks for taking the time off the trail for this. Just two sleeps to go, David, until the election. The leaders are hitting the hustings harder than ever as they're trying to win over some last-minute voters.
But I just want to zoom out first, David, and look at the broader election campaign. You know, who won the campaign, Peter Dutton or Anthony Albanese, is the first question. We'll get later to who's going to win the election because there might be different answers. Yeah, they sometimes can be. What do you think? I think it's been a really... challenging campaign for the Coalition and for Peter Dutton.
And I think there's a general view that that's the case. There's even reporting today that Josh Frydenberg, the former Treasurer, former Deputy Liberal Leader, has acknowledged in some remarks in a public forum that... it hasn't gone as well as the coalition would have liked. And I think that's a realistic assessment. I think that's an understatement. Yeah, and I think...
I've seen commentary by Peter Credlin, a warrior for the Liberal Party, who acknowledges the campaign hasn't done well. She's written that in her column. So it's not a sort of a one-sided view about the problems here. We've seen Peter Dutton at petrol stations at the Bowser day after day. He's going hard on the 25 cent a litre cut.
to fuel excise. But I think there's been a lot of other things that are basically missing in the campaign. I think there's been a sort of an emptiness in the campaign in trying to reach out to the sceptical voters who vote for teals in some of those former Liberal blue ribbon seats. He hasn't sort of walked far enough over towards those voters to try and encourage them back into the fold. He's relying heavily on the outer suburban sea.
But I don't think that that is compelling enough at the moment. And we see that in the polls. I also think that... they didn't get some of the policy settings right before they went into the campaign. For instance, he's at petrol stations. But remember, it was only two months, three months ago that he announced a big policy to have tax breaks on business lunches. Now, I know that small cafes and so forth, the hospitality sector actually welcomed that policy, but he hasn't been talking about it.
So the policy didn't turn out to be the big election campaign winner that he thought it was. It was heavily criticised by Labor and by others when it came out. Weaponised, really. Weaponised by Labor. As taxpayers' funding... a tax break for business people to go for long lunches. I mean, as soon as it came out, it became controversial and it hasn't turned into an asset for them. So I think the policy work before the campaign was just as important, really more important.
than some of these tactical things that we've seen during the campaign. Yeah, and it's been here right through this campaign because they haven't answered questions about how they're going to pay for their promises throughout this election campaign. And in the run-up to it, David, both sides have gone hard on spending announcements, you know, to alleviate the cost of living. This is the cost of living election. Basically, there's been a bidding war for votes.
But while the spending announcements have been forthcoming, the costings from both sides, less so. Labor unveiled its costings on Monday. We'll get the coalitions today. We're recording this on a Thursday morning. The headline claim will be budget deficits over the next four years under the coalition would be $10 billion less than Labor. That's not nothing, but it's not hugely significant either when the forecast deficits are around $150 billion, I think.
And it comes with cuts, doesn't it? It's the HECS death relief would be gone. The Housing Affordability Fund would be gone. The transmission lines that Labor's building to connect renewables to the grid would be gone. The 41,000 public servants they're cut. These are some of the ones we know of. I think most voters would...
would greet the costings from both sides with total scepticism. And I think that they'd be quite right there. The $10 billion on deficits over several years is really, it's not a rounding error. I think that would be a bit too flippant. It's not reliable as a guide to a great improvement in the budget bottom line. And I've been underwhelmed with the messages. And it's not reliable. I mean, none of these costings four years out are reliable. Budgets are always rising forecasts, aren't they?
And we saw that with the government. They have acclaimed their turnaround in the budget deficit. But a lot of that was a change in forecasts. Yeah, forecasts that changed in 2022 after they came into government. So things do change. I think that... The budget's in a very weak position and we've got a lot of problems in the world.
It's a very dangerous time to have low productivity, big deficits and growing debt. And that's a real problem with this election campaign because really neither side want to engage. as directly as they need to on that problem. Labor has used off-budget spending programs to hide how much is going out the door and what that's doing to the underlying well and to the nation's finances
And at the same time, the coalition criticises that and then comes up with a nuclear energy plan. But they also have come up with their own off budget. Like, it's funny, isn't it? It's like... They announced two of them in the election campaign, didn't they? So neither side is really honestly dealing with that problem. Politicians on both sides have now become... very used to using off-budget items
where they need to promise something to the electorate and want to hide the true impact on the finances. So handy. I mean, some of them, some of them. might be valid. The Clean Energy Finance Corporation, it has a good return on the money it loans out. Well, that's been the last few assessments that I've seen anyway. you know, others. It's just the scale of the money. I mean, I asked the Prime Minister at the Press Club this week about
$1 billion for the critical minerals facility. There's a lot of skepticism from the industry itself about whether that's a viable policy. And it's just another $1 billion off budget.
David, of course, we've just gone to some of this, but I think it's worth mentioning, of course, there's some difficult moments for the government, which also will be difficult moments for the opposition if they were to... turn things around and votes break their way and something miraculous happens in the last few days and that The budget and the ratings agency, S&P, and their warning, which came at really not a great time for the government.
The government is lucky, can I say, because of that warning that the opposition has been in such disarray that the focus was not exclusively on this because it was. you know, not helpful for them. You know, warning that our AAA credit rating may be at risk because of the budget position. And then, of course, we saw those inflation figures come out, which were a happier story for the government, seeing core inflation come down to 2.9% within the RBA's target range.
That was like, okay, hard with S&P. And then that gift, it was like, here you go, government. Here's a little gift from the inflation gods. Here is the Treasurer enjoying that moment. Well, it's a powerful demonstration of the progress that Australians have made together on inflation. And what makes us different here in Australia compared with the rest of the world is we've got inflation down at the same time. We've kept unemployment low. We've got real wages up.
We've got growth rebounding solidly in our economy. We've got the debt down and interest rates have started to come down as well. Like PK said, manna from heaven, David. But either of these predictions, either the doomsday one of losing the AAA credit rating or the positive of the inflation. Will either of them change votes coming at this point in the campaign or put pressure on whoever wins the next election?
I think there's underlying pressure on whoever wins the next election to manage the budget and make sure we do keep that AAA rating. So I think... You do see after elections that governments can tighten the strings on the budget because they don't have to face voters for another couple of years. That's a standard dynamic and we could see that.
But at the same time, I think that inflation news was really, really good for the government. Tactically, also, the S&P warning was bad for the government, but the coalition didn't go into overdrive on it. And I've been struck by how Peter Dutton started a culture war over welcome to country when perhaps he would have been better off.
going harder and harder and harder on the cost of living in the economy because our polling shows that a lot of voters still think the coalition is better on managing the economy. But do you know, David, the whole cost of living thing, all this money that's being promised and put out there and the debt that's being racked up and people seem to not mind because they want the money spent on them.
But, you know, no matter the improved inflation outlook or the likelihood of interest rate cuts that the Treasurer is promising, there's still an enormous a lot of people hurting out there right now. Like Gail Dean, she was a disability pensioner. She spoke to ABC TV News last night. I thought it was just really summed up how a lot of people are feeling right now. When you hear politicians constantly saying we understand people are doing it tough.
Well, do they really? I dare one of them to live my life for a week with a disability and try and live off what I'm living off. I thought that was such a powerful plea, really, from Gail. And, you know, there's a lot of people out there, renters, people on Centrelink, struggling low-income earners, who just feel like these...
Promises that are being waved around don't really relate to them. They're not going to help them. And we get to see how those people are being counted or are factoring into the poll. I think that, I mean, it's fair to point out that lower inflation does help everybody. However, when you see the politicians talking about this day after day, it just...
Sounds so glib, doesn't it? Because they're not really empathising in a deeper way. And let's face it, both leaders are in very small bubbles, moving very, very fast. bouncing from electorate to electorate without really touching the community. We saw a little bit of that this week, but they're not really engaging with people like Gayle face to face in this campaign.
So they're not in a position to really empathise directly with what's happening. And I think voters know that. They can see that. They're not impressed with either side. And in an election... It's not, it's really just a contest between the two sides in a two-party preferential system. Labor and Anthony Albanese have an edge, but I don't think it is a ringing endorsement. They've actually closed some of the gap on the cost of living.
But it doesn't mean that they've got this sort of triumphant acclaim from the Australian people about how they've got the solution because a lot of people are not impressed. No, but it is a wicked problem, right? I mean, to give it some... Not that I'm ever sympathetic to any politician anywhere, but I do think the cost of living crisis.
the international inflation crisis, the kind of state of the economy has been a kind of wicked problem for whoever was in government. That's true, but that's not the whole story. I mean, the housing story, the rental story, housing affordability, that's not a problem.
from the international... That's a problem that's been building in this country for a long time. No, that's true, but you just said it. But that is a multi-government responsibility, right? Oh, God, yeah. Yeah, for sure. And it hasn't happened quickly and yet...
We kicked the can down the road. We are currently kicking the can down the road. Can I say none of the policies I think will turn that situation around. Okay, let's talk. Fran and I began the podcast. We reflected a little on this, the polling. the vibes and the where are we at but David it is really important to
I did the podcast yesterday, Politics Now with David Spears, and he too said, you know, you've got to park the polling at some point because there's so much complexity here. So let's go to some of that complexity. There has been really wall to wall, I think, all of the public polling going in one direction, which is in Labor's favour. That's factual. That's been going on.
And it's really been building for a long time. But then we hear people like John Scales, who is very respected pollster, saying, you know, at a seat to seat level. There is a real battle going on. There is a bigger right-wing vote to the minor parties. They're flowing back in strong numbers to the coalition.
which had higher numbers than in the past. So that one nation deal, which they say isn't a deal, it looks like a deal to me. It is a deal. Not a deal, I was told yesterday. Why are you calling it a deal? What does that mean at a seat by seat level? I mean, I'm just, I'm not writing the coalition off. I know that sounds a little like, are you hedging here? Well, yeah, kind of, because I've been to some of these marginal.
And I do feel like there's an anger towards the government still. Not kind of baseball bats, but there is some kind of sporting thing I can't think of that's out. David, help me. How should you read it? It's a wild ride where there are going to be gains and losses on both sides. I think the government's going to win some and the government's going to lose some. Same for the coalition.
it's going to be, there's going to be a lot of churning. And the Greens too, you know, they're looking at a few seats that they might pick up. The Teals, well, we're hearing, you know, counters, some will lost, some will win. Let me put you in the hot seat. Do you think we're going to get a majority government on Saturday night, David?
And that's only half the hot seat. I'm not asking you which majority government. Yeah. I think there's a chance of a Labor majority government. I think that that is becoming a realistic possibility. based on what we've seen so far, not just a poor campaign by the coalition, but a very disciplined campaign by Labor and Anthony Albanese with none of the mistakes that he made, for instance, in 2022 in that campaign.
So he's been solid. And also they're showing their confidence by sending him out into the field, out to meet the people in Fowler in southwest Sydney. I don't know whether Labor can win Fowler, but certainly that's a sign that they're on the hunt. If you look at the coalition strategy, it looks much more defensive, much more playing to a conservative base. So I think that a Labor majority is possible. A Labor minority government is, I guess, more likely.
And there is that outside chance of a coalition surprise. David, that's called hedging your bets. But thank you. I understand it. I feel the same. But we have to hedge because... We do. Because you know why? Because in these seats, it's incredibly close. So anyone, I really do think that's actually being responsible. Anyone who can actually call it is a big fat liar. Like they are. They're lying. David, it's been so great to speak to you.
On the last party room before Australia votes and Australia knows... So I'm looking forward to the knowing rather than the sort of elaborate maths that we have to do. Thanks so much for coming on. You know I love the party room and so thank you for having me. It's always great to talk. David, have a great couple of last days and good luck with it all. See you later. Cheers.
We'll move to questions without notice. We'll give the call to the Leader of the Opposition. Thank you very much, Mr Speaker. My question is to the Prime Minister. The bells are ringing. It's time for our question time given. Parliament's barogued. Someone's got to have one. This week's question comes from Claire. Hi Fran and PK, it's Claire from Wurundjeri Country in Melbourne and I wanted to ask what kind of data that candidates get access to after the election.
For example, there's been a bit of chatter about whether the Teals should support Labour or Liberal if it comes to a minority government. And so I'm just curious whether they can see sort of the nitty gritty about how many people who voted. for a teal candidate preference labor over liberal how many people who voted greens preference teal that kind of level of information to help them decide
who their constituents might be most likely to want them to support. Claire, that's a very good question considering, you know, the poll suggests we could be looking most likely at minority government, minority Liberal, minority Labor. The answer is, and we went to the experts for this because neither Pico and I, we've been around a long time, but we didn't know this. And in fact, I tried it out on a few former independents last night.
On the Radio National Hour, they didn't really know it either. Yeah, a lot of people don't know these sorts of things. So we went to the Electoral Commission, the experts, and they said, no, the Teal candidates or the Greens candidates would not know preference flows of people who vote for them.
they wouldn't be privy to that information. But what they do know, that even if a teal wins a seat or say the Greens pick up what Richmond say in northern New South Wales, The AEC still does a two-party preferred count in every seat so that that result would give the overall vibe of who in the electorate might have preferred Labor or Liberal in that seat overall, even though the others...
squeaked through or broke through significantly. So not necessarily support amongst voters that supported the Teal candidate, but in the seat overall. And that's why I think we've got Rebecca Sharkey, for instance, in Mayo in South Australia saying a few weeks back that... If it was a close result, she would go to Peter Dutton first to start talking because she feels that's the vibe of her seat. Now, I mean, that's what she feels.
Is it that vibe anymore? I'm not sure. That seat's been out of Liberal hands for a long time since Alexander Downer. So the AEC is saying, we've got something to help you. It's the two-party preferred breakdown. Take a look at that.
It's a great answer and researched. Ever since that time I got in trouble for being dismissive over a question. Have you noticed we've lifted our game with answering your questions? Thank you, Claire. I never want to be in trouble from any listeners ever again. This is a question from Rhys. G'day friend and PK, Rhys here. Love the show, long time listener. Always look forward to my Thursday commute. Loving the new format too.
so bear with me for a minute a lot of us tragics of domestic politics followed a bit like a sport politicians are a bit like players and well election season it's a bit like the final So my question, finally, is this. If we're in the final season and you two are commentators, What are your predictions? Is there somebody that might unexpectedly jut out and steal our hearts for a couple of weeks? Or, who are the people we might not notice that will have a significant impact?
Anywho, love your work. Thanks. Well, Rhys, thank you for loving the podcast. We love you too, Rhys. The new format every day. You've been enjoying politics now, I'm assuming. Thank you very much. Okay. People who will emerge. Well, I'll tell you what I'll be watching.
And it's ultimately, you're asking for prediction. I don't know if you're asking for the election result, but as you heard I say before with David Crowe, I just think it is a mugs game to predict an election with that much disparate kind of voting and stuff. I really do. I just think it's... you're making it up and I don't want to make things up because why would you trust me if I was just making stuff up, right?
That's the first thing. In terms of what I'll be looking for in terms of characters, I don't know if anyone's going to steal your heart. I don't think your heart's going to be stolen by anyone I can identify in this election. But I can point to some characters. So post-election. I want you to carefully look at. Angus Taylor and what he might do, the shadow treasurer. It'll depend on the result.
But will he challenge Peter Dutton or will Dutton be able to hold the line and convince his party room that he deserves a two-term strategy, that he's done enough work in the suburbs and that he can deliver? and that they've shown some recovery with some of their heartland teal areas and that, you know, they are offering something. Watch that space because I think, and Josh Frydenberg's not in the parliament, but clearly there's an agitation.
I will be looking there. And then, my friend, because I reckon if the Prime Minister wins a majority, he'll be riding high for a while, I suspect. He has improved. his performance, his delivery. I think that the beginning of his term, unless he stuffs up something, will be probably stronger than his last term. So that will be interesting. But then watch the other characters.
I'd be watching Jim Chalmers. I don't know if he's going to steal your heart. I think Anthony Amity might be watching Jim Chalmers too. He will. He will. Not straight away. I'm not suggesting. That's silliness, right? If he wins the election. People like Jim and others will just go, hats off, you won the election, we helped out because I think they've been a strong team. But, yeah, they're not agitating, sorry. But do they think?
Would they like for there to be another candidate for Prime Minister at the next election? I'm just being honest with you. I think that there's a lot of people that think it should be a new candidate before the next election, right, in a, you know. A fair way. Let's see if they can deliver that. Prime Ministers don't like moving on, especially if they've won a majority in my vast experience of watching them.
But watch Jim Chalmers. I'll give you a few other names. Watch Jason Clare, who's had his second good election campaign. knows how to deliver a hotline. He's a rather smooth talker. Watch Tony Burke. Now, he's been lower profile because of that home affairs portfolio, which is an absolute stinker sometimes for Labor. But if he can maintain and keep his seat of Watson, which I think he will, I'm not sure, but it looks that way, you know, these figures. And then one more.
She might steal your heart. She was on Q&A on Monday night and I thought she was very charismatic and delivered very well for Labor. Tanya Plibersek, does she stay in environment? You know, so they're the sort of, and I'm talking leadershipy stuff, but I think that's all going to be in play in the next parliament. Yeah, very fair. I don't think it's what you were talking about, Rhys, but I think it's very fair because
Leadership in a second term or, I mean, Anthony Albanese is moving. He's been in the parliament a long, long time. He's bought the house. on the Central Coast for him and his soon-to-be wife. To be fair, he says that's not so he can move into it straight away. No, not straight away. I'm not talking straight away, but I'm talking I doubt there'd be a third term for him, but I don't know. I don't know. I'm just saying what I think.
In terms of Tanya Plibersek, she is a great performer and she always gives and gives and gives in election campaigns for Labor because she's very popular on the ground. Does she have leadership ambitions? I do not know. Would the Prime Minister be unwise to demote her in the Cabinet? Yes, I think he would because there's been so much focus.
around the tension in their relationship now. She doesn't deserve demotion. I would be promoting her. I would be promoting her too. I think there's a couple of other seats that will be talked about on election night. I think the Greens candidate, Mandy Nolan in Richmond. is looking very, very hot, very likely she's going to come through. And Alex Dyson in Warnon, the coalition are getting much more hopeful, I understand, about Dantian holding onto that seat.
You know, Alex has had a go now a couple of times. He's been polling strongly. It'll be interesting to see. That'll be a reflection, I think, of the whole vibe on election night. PK, you will be back with another edition of Politics Now tomorrow with the wonderful Claudia Long. And then you'll be there on election night.
So you're going to be very, very busy. And then we'll be back again on Sunday. Yeah, we're going to do a special episode on Sunday. What are you doing, election night? Election night, I'm on the set with Cos Samaris and Tony Barry. providing commentary throughout the night, you know, as we see the results. And, you know, I've become a little bit like obsessive about certain demographics.
I've actually kind of lost my marvels. I'm an obsessive character and this is my current obsession, but I will get a new obsession, which I will let you know about in the future. But yes, that's what I'll be doing. Then I'll be making a podcast with Jacob on the night. So just to let you know, you will get...
politics now episode when we get an idea of the result on the night and then sunday we're making a proper podcast yeah but but sunday will be i think the penultimate i mean please listen to both of them but the kind of whoa okay, this looks firmed up to be the government. This is the message. This is the speech, you know, all of the big stuff. And I'm really excited that we're making that together in Sydney. I'm here for a week, so you can't get rid of me, Fran.
And that's it. Then we just keep going. And just so you know, everybody, even after four elections, I don't want to get rid of you, PK. It's been fun. See you. Thank goodness. That would make me sad. See you, friend. Hi there, Yumi Steins here, host of the podcast, Ladies We Need To Talk. We're all about health and wellness. sex and relationships. If it's going off in your group chat, we're going to talk about it on Ladies We Need To Talk.
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