Why no one can 'land a glove' on Farage

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This is political currency. With Ed Balls and George Osman. The Osborne has landed. George Osborne um 8 a.m. this morning landing from San Francisco into Heathrow. We are in London but remote because you know you have to go back and um shave and But you're back. I am back. I wasn't on the state visit. In a parallel universe I might have been, but I wasn't. I was at a company offsite. I don't know if you've ever done one of those there, but do you know what swag it is?

Oh well, I know what an off site is, but I don't know what well I I thought swag is what you steal if you are like a global capitalist baron trying to steal from the people. You'll you're thinking of your old Marxist days. Swag is uh the stuff that the company gives you with all their brands on it. So I've got a rather nice kind Open AI jacket as a result of my Well it's a step up from the hoodie. It is a bit of a step up. Why do they want to give you a jacket?

Yeah. Uh team building and all that, remember? Remember that in politics? I know I know none of the political parties are currently doing that kind of thing, but you know, there was a time when we had uh away days and offsites and the like in politics, wasn't it? It is interesting. I still wear my Canadian Ottawa

1998, I think it was, G twenty green jacket, sort of you know, fleece thing. So um I was about to say, other than Rory McElroy, Roy, who gets a jacket? But then I suddenly realised I've got one. So there we are. Historic swag. I'm not sure there's a, you know, direct comparison between the jacket you get for winning the US Masters and Yeah. And the bit you get for being a bag carrier at some international

But if you like it did you b of course I've missed your um this week you've you've broken onto the big screen, haven't you? I mean you are now a film star or T V star'cause You have a key role in uh the new IT V drama Secret Service by our friend Tom Bradby. He's written it and it's now been turned into the Very successful T V show. The uh the right phrase is guests.

Susannah Reid and I guest starred in the new Tom Bradbury. Um it's his novel onto the TV screen, Secret Service, starring Gemma Arton, brilliant car. It's all about Russian infiltration into British politics. And um it's all on IT V X. And I have to say I've only seen the first three episodes of five. It is really, really

Good. Well I I'll let you into a a secret which I um shouldn't do. Tom Bradbury is in there reading the news. Um Susannah and I are there interviewing the Foreign Secretary on Good Morning Britain. Um but Robert Peston also interviews the Foreign Secretary. Um What Robert or the Foreign Secretary? No, the foreign secretary. But I was talking to Tom Bradby, because, you know, we deliver our lines.

you know, I think we might be in series two. Um I'm sure Robert Peston will be as well, but um the actor was told, you know, just prepare yourself because there will be, as there always is in dramas like this, eight They said the possibility of Robert Peston asking you the same question each time.

let alone the same question once in the eight takes, is very, very low'cause that's just not what he does. And so Robert basically rewrote the whole script in order for his cameo. But there we are, I think it's still Mm. So you were playing yourself, but uh Your wife was played by someone else.

Anyway, we should get on with this podcast and let's start um before we get into the the big subject. By just noting these horrific crimes in Golders Green, the stabbings of uh two individuals. It's all sort of unfolding bravery from passers-by, from uh members of the Jewish community who help defend that community and.

Problem police. But I think it quite rightly has sparked a big, big debate about anti Semitism and that anti Semitism now spilling into very serious threats to The Jewish community here who who are the most uh threatened community in Britain, and a big question about how they're being policed, uh the intelligence support that they're getting, and and I can I think a broader question. how we monitor. threats in our society and and more to the point confront

That's right. Uh on this podcast sometimes we um refer back to um past conversations we've had and of course on EMQs last week, prompted by the former DEFRA Permanent Secretary Tamara Fink. um picking us up on um the fact that um most schools in the UK will not go through a you know shooter drill but that is something which is routine in Jewish schools. We were both saying how mae'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r

this threat is even you know kind of real and being talked about. It shouldn't be part of their lived experience to have to go through these extra security protocols. I think the interesting thing is that even though this was Forty five year old man who's been arrested with mental health issues, it's been treated as a terrorist. ac yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw.

time will tell, but it's um it's shocking and terrible and there will be a big sort of scrutiny about lots of different aspects of our security. but also our our politics and why events happening in other parts of the world are being used as a weapon to attack British Jews in Golders Green. I mean it's just so so Yeah, I think we we'll take a much Yeah.

has passed. But um for this show we're going to look at three uh different topics. We're gonna start with the uh King's historic state visit to the United States to celebrate Commiserate, maybe, if you're the king. Uh the two hundred and fiftieth anniversary. US independence. How did the visit go? Uh what does it say about US UK relations? And has there been any reflected glory on the British government who sent the head of state there, or are they still in the uh hole called Peter?

And then we are one week away from local election polling day and um These local elections are set to be historic in Wales, across England. Looks like the first victory for Plied Cumri ever in Wales, but potentially a record breaking worst ever. result for the Labour government um next Thursday. We're going to look ahead to the local elections, what to look out for, and also where this looks like it's going to leave Kim Bay.

Then finally, we're just gonna have a quick look at what has happened to the assisted dying bill. Uh, this is uh about helping people legally in their life. Um a terminal disease. It was one of the first big announcements of the Labour government a couple of years ago.

and support to a Labour backbencher who brought this legislation, a bit of an echo of the nineteen sixties and the great kind of social reforms back then. Uh well now it's kind of run into the brick wall of the House of Lords, uh part the Parliamentary has ended and we're just going to take a look at what happens next on something that uh is uh causing a pretty profound debate.

We're we're gonna start with um the King's uh visit. Um still underway while we're recording this podcast, I think they're going to um the National Cemetery in Arlington. Today before a farewell from Donald Trump. Of course the weekend saw another assassination. On Donald Trump's life at the correspondence dinner, which risked overshadowing this visit. But I have to say, those people who said this was a mistake, the king shouldn't go. He would be embarrassed, Britain would be embarrassed.

Paul the trip. I just think they've been totally proved wrong by the Hugely skillful way in which um the king but also the palace have handled this. We've in the past talked about the great. skill of the royal palace speechwriters, but also the people who put together these trips, they have sort Decades of understanding and know how I just think it's been pitch perfect from uh the King, despite the odd noises off from Donald Trump.

culminating in um on Tuesday the address to Congress where the King had twelve standing ovations while delivering a whole series of very pointed but beautifully and diplomatically delivered um

warnings about um politics and extremism and ignoring victims and not valuing our history. And then on to the the White House dinner. I think the joke which had most attention was the King saying to Donald Trump, just to point out, when you say if it hadn't been for America, all of you Brits and Europeans could have been speaking German In the 1750s, then Americans could all have been speaking French rather than British today. My favourite one, though, was um the little dig he made.

You know, in the context of Donald Trump's um Greenland extraterritorial ambitions. And um it's funny and it's just on the Mae'r land o'opportunity wedi cael ei wneud ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r amser. With close. Now I know you have big plans for the moons. I have to check the papers, and I rather suspect it is already part of the Commonwealth.

So yeah, I agree with you. A very well done state visit. If you think back just as you were saying a couple of weeks ago, everyone was saying, Oh, maybe it should be cancelled. Ed Davy saying it should be cancelled, remember, in Parliament. I mean, that all looks pretty foolish now. Uh and it's a reminder of the value of these things. that our head of state isn't political and therefore can be sent in.

And of course marking a a big historic moment in the history of our country and our culture, but also pouring kind of oil and tribes. sort of smoothing things over. And I thought it was interesting that even in an environment like that where the king is very constrained in what he could Some of his own personal priorities. the Congress on the environment and the melting ice caps, which, you know, wouldn't have been recommended.

He wanted to say it and he did and he but he did it in a way that didn't look aggressive. imposing. I actually met someone I was in California while this was all happening and I I sat next That was that where my Who had been in the room at that shooting that the correspondence did? one of the tables and it's just a reminder, I mean he said to me, You have no idea, George, how close they got.

It was a bit like the assassination attempt a couple of years ago, you know, of Donald Trump where the bullet just missed. Um here the the shooter penetrates the security Gordon, is running into the room, and it's only'cause he trips And the guy I was with who said it was all you know. Until suddenly all the Secret Service popped up and the paramilitary forces popped up and so on. But you know, if you've been armed with an automatic weapon, He almost certainly would have gone into the room.

The whole visit could have been But I agree with you. Great it went ahead. I can't you know, I've I'm always very careful on this show not to ask you what does Yvette think or what do you what do you talk about at home because I'm a Of uh of her job and indeed your your your job as well. So but I can't help ask, because you must have spoken to her, and she's been at all these great events. Congratulations. As foreign secretaries do once.

The one thing which um she said to me, it was late at night, midnight in America, um after the White House dinner, um early in the morning for me, I was in the Good Morning Britain studio. She rang me I don't know the detail of what happened in the Rubio Van's ambassador because What she did say was that she actually To be deeply emotional. And the reason was this that we have all grown up um as huge fans. Studied. Yeah. America is such a divided region.

It is so worrying and dangerous. And there she was, incongru. With our king, delivering messages, including about the dangers of unchecked executive power, and making sure that you listen to victims. But he didn't have to do that. With such skill and Had Democrats and Republicans all standing up together to applaud what he was saying. She said it was so impressive, but all

kind of important to watch this moment and to think you know that it is possible through speech and leadership to get that sense of of unity. And I do think the lasting impact of Is that um that for Republicans and Democrats in Congress, if Donald Trump in the next you know few months suddenly starts sounding off, attacking Britain, singling us out on tariffs, that will jar

With some of the um things he was saying about the King's speech and what a brilliant speech it was and how what a good friend he is and what close allies.

we are so I do think these things have uh an impact and that is a powerful thing to see. Interesting, I don't know whether you saw this. Robert Hardman, the royal biographer, um he and the Daily Mail did some research. Um which came out on Monday. I'm sure this would have been discussed in the meeting. I don't know to reveal that Donald Trump and the King are apparently 15th... Um this all dates back five hundred years ago. We all like Yeah.

Well that was the point. So th they are fifteenth cousins, all back to Donald Trump's mother, um her line all the way back to some lord in Scotland in the um five hundred years ago. I actually asked, thinking I was gonna be chatting to you. chat GPT and Claude, how many 15th cousins I or the king would have? And the answer is, if you assume, this is over 400 to 500 years, two and a half kids...

in each generation. By the time you get to the tenth cousin, you've probably got four point six million And therefore, once you get to the 15th cousin, you are. I mean, it's almost impossible to calculate, but you've gone through hundreds of millions into the billions. But who cares? Because if Donald Trump On that day thought, here I am with my fifteenth cousin. He was quite well behaved. I mean he had the odd moment.

telling everybody in the White House banquet the um King's view on Iran and nuclear weapons. But then actually afterwards, after um the King had gone up to New York saying, Well, you know, of course, um if King Charles had been in charge, which Donald Lee isn't in Britain, then he would have supported Donald Trump in his uh attacks on um Iran a few weeks ago in the way that Kirstarmer didn't. The thing is though, A week or two weeks ago, you would have thought that would have been a massive...

And in fact. It wasn't a massive moment because actually The king just, you know, styles it out, looks at his menu, shrugs it off. Nobody really minds. Nobody thinks that there's any truth in that. By the way, while we're talking, I've got to say to you, because for the last two weeks I've been saying to you, Trump arrived.

You know, I'm not totally sure whether your optimism is quite bearing fruit. All price soaring, you know, the Straits of Homo's look to be shut for months. It's not quite going according to I don't know whether it was JD's plan, but whose other plan it was, not sure it's going according to Wel, two things are true on there. One is I said that the ceasefire was going to be permanent, that there wasn't going to be a resumption of fighting, and I don't...

Donald Trump, but it's also proving really difficult. uh conundrum of how to reopen the straits and who has control over them. And you know, y the US is blockading Iran, but Iran is sort of not blockading to go through. I guess the optimism that there would be an earlier

has gone, although markets are still assuming that there will be a solution and uh at the moment everyone's still in a wait and see pattern. I mean we've got the mind we the Fed has kept rates on hold This morning Now that's all true.

I guess the only thing that did kind of blow back a bit from the visit was um the comments of our ambassador. United States, not the person who the government wanted to send to the United States, Peter Mandelson. We'll come on to him in a moment. But uh Christian Turner, who's one of our, you know, most experienced diplomats after the Mandelson fiancé. He had been talking to some students a couple of months ago. And was caught on camera.

Saying I guess some home truths, which uh people listening to this will say, Well yeah, that that is you know true and m maybe the job of ambassador. Um but was a little bit uncomfortable because he's he said that uh Britain didn't have a special relationship with the United States, which goes counter to you know the Foreign Office insistence that you always put special relationship with.

speech you're giving in and around uh a US president. Uh and in fact that the special relationship was with Israel, and then finally says that uh the Prime Minister himself might be gone. All of this is potentially true, but um Uh uh it was certainly surprising to hear the ambassador say it. Here's what he said. Special relationship is a phrase I try not to utter. Because

it's quite nostalgic, it's quite backwards looking and it has a lot of sort of baggage about it. I think there is probably one country that has a special relationship never lost a fight he's in and so I think here saying I'm quitting is quite a high bar. Thank you. elections. If Labour does very badly in the May elections, I suspect um the party will will Thank you.

So there was clearly an enterprising young uh journalist in that group of Gloucestershire six formers who were on a um politics A level trip to America and had a chat with the British ambassador and you know Whoever recorded it has made a splash, although it's probably gonna queer the pitch for any few. private meet the ambassador's gone out of his way to b meet a bunch of school I I'm sorry it's not right. And and to obviously. Pull back the curtain a bit. Yeah, give them some. Thank you.

I don't really approve of that.

Mae'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n ymwneud â'n. whether it's true or not, um, I think for Christian Turner it'll be chastening Um you know, it's one of those times where the phrase lessons learned is um uh appropriate. But uh interestingly, other than being a great scoop for the F T, it didn't have a lot of blowback here in

British politics. There was too much going on. The thing I actually thought to myself was um Christian Turner telling it how it is. I mean, they're but for the grace of um McSweeney, it could have it could have been you. Um the interesting thing, while this was all going on um on Tuesday.

Philip Barton and then Morgan McSweeney were giving evidence to Embley Thornbury's Foreign Affairs Select Committee. It was actually kind of quite powerful stuff, especially Philip Barton, some of the things that he We should say he he was the head of the Foreign Office at the time of the manufacturer. Who Ollie Robbins then took over from. He's the guy who um felt strongly pressured and stood that up in the uh committee. Um we a week ago on our podcast said that Keir Starmer saying at PMQs

There was no pressure. He was gonna have to get off that very fast. And he got off that with an interview in the Times on Saturday where he said, Well look, there's different meanings of the word pressure before essentially saying, Yes, we did put them under. In the media sometimes you have two competing stories, the King's Visit or Yeah. the Foreign Affairs Committee evidence and in the end the British media decided the King's visit was a bigger and more significant

Story on the day, and that I think had more impact here in British politics than than that testimony. But within it, Morgan Betsweeney um speaking really for the first time publicly. Not just since he's been removed as chief of staff, but while he was chief of staff and before, um he explained to the committee that there were in fact Two candidates. Two candidates who we now know went through the due diligence process. Here is Morgan with Sweet.

I I could see there was pros and cons in the appointment uh and I worried that it would go wrong um so uh I didn't tried to push anything through. There was we procured two uh strong candidates for him. One was Mandelson and the other was uh George Osborne, uh the former Chancellor Exchequer, uh who I had met as part of it, um and my view was that we had, and I said to the Prime Minister, you have two two appointable candidates.

Um others agreed that there was two two appointable candidates. I can't recall anyone saying that Madison was not

Oh look I presume you passed the veteran. Yes, but there will have been a cabinet office due diligence report on you. Because that is the thing which is so shocking about is that you know Keir Starmer had in front of him when he made the decision before Christmas, before the formal vetting. This red flag ridden due diligence report. Look, I I think that we we all knew there was risks with the man.

appointment. I think both of us could see, given Trump going to the White House, there was a case for an unusual political appointment. And you know, you were a really credible candidate. So was Peter Mandel. Once you sat with that report with all the detail of the Epstein meetings, the the Russian non executive investments um all the other kind of commercial things in that report. I mean that was all there before the decision was made, well before the security.

Yeah, I mean look, um I would have obviously been honoured to have done it. I was rather surprised to have been asked uh to be considered. But um I I do wonder whether it would have worked. stuck between the Parliamentary Labour Party and Donald Trump and uh, you know, Keastama's strategy. I think if you know if I had been associated with it that they may not have the Parliamentary Labour body or some element.

Kind of taking it out on me rather than taking it out on Girl Starba. But who knows, who knows that? one of those sliding doors moments and uh I'm I'm very happy and enjoying my life uh at the moment. What about the kind of domestic situation for Keir Starmer? Because

Um, we're gonna come on to the local elections. We should just touch on this of commons vote, shouldn't we? Um so Kemi Baden was essentially trying to repeat the trick that happened uh a few years ago and did for Boris Johnson, which was to try and get Keir Starmer referred to the standards committee in Parliament. And uh the reason why that uh works, you know, if you can if you can make it happen, you get referred to this committee Essentially police is gonna be.

in Parliament. And um it can recommend a suspension if someone lies to Parliament. And which is what it did in the case of Boris Johnson. It's a way partly of kind of getting round a large m Labour majority'cause there's a much although there's a Labour majority on the States Committee, it's it's only a few MPs and suddenly Starmer's fate is just in the hands of a few individuals. It you know, Boris Johnson was unable to control the standards committee or rather.

Even though he had a quite big majority. And so they were trying to trend the same thing, Kemi Baden, I can get it referred to the It was not nearly as kind of um Personal behaviour and you know, what the whole country had had to go through with COVID.

Um what do you think? I mean, you know, I th if you were Kemi Badenlock you'd say, Well, we never expected to win the vote, but it kept the whole story going for another few days, it put Labour MPs in an uncomfortable position, and indeed we get some Labour represents. But it has also kind of cut off that remote. So would you say Kemi Reynolds shouldn't have played that card that early?

There is an argument that if she had waited until the week after the local election Um although it would actually be a a while longer than that because there's a whole King speech process to go through first, that she might have had kind of more impact in the vote. But what she was doing was kind of building up the charge sheet and um I don't think it was for Keir Starmer over the last week, um even though the motion didn't work for Kemi.

in the commons on the on the afternoon of the vote. Th th the rebellion wasn't uh huge, although there was fifty people who stayed yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw yw

procedural uh vote or motion uh anyway. When it got to PMQs on Wednesday, um the last Prime Minister's questions before the local elections, you could hear Kemi Badnock's strategy unfold. to their constituencies and explain to all those people why they did what they did last night. The fact is the Prime Minister was reduced to whipping his MPs to save him and pleading with a tax dodger to rejoin his How much longer do we all have to put up with his shambles?

Mr Speaker, I changed my part and I won a general election. Mae'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio'n newidio All right. Mr. Speaker, the stunt they played yesterday because they don't like what we're delivering. More security for renters, lifting half a million children. That's our mandate, that's our mission, and nothing's gonna hold us back.

The thing is, George, we have been saying for weeks, months now to First of all, you've got to get all the Mandelson papers out in public and move

And even if there was no killer blow from Philip Barton, Morgan McSweeney or in this Commons vote, this story is not ended. There is still a lot more documentation to come out and so that is still a vulnerability for Kirst Armer and you know The sacking of of Ollie Robbins this week, I mean it it's just even harder to understand what was actually going on in Kirstama's mind.

when he made that uh decision. But the second thing we said was you've got it th they have to change the agenda before the local elections. They've got to get onto a big message about the economy and delivery and what the government is doing. And you despite That preparation from Keir Starmer, you know, they haven't managed to do that at all in this local uh Campaign. They've never changed the name.

They've never got on the front foot and that's why the you know the the local elections are coming towards them like you know a big jugnaught down the middle of the road. Yeah they're gonna happen next Thursday, aren't they? And we are going to turn to what to look out for as we try to interpret the results of the And what it means for the uh big players in the first time. And we'll come and do that after this.

Vi på Danske bank vet att det kan vara svårt att hänga med i en värld som förändras dagligen. Beslut som fattas långt. Så verkar även oss här hemma. Specialister ger företag finansiella råd. Hela Nordens for the first time. Utreservering, vilorum, hotellrum. Någon måste köpa grejerna till företaget. Är det du? Hos jus får företagskunder 8% extra rabbatt, till och med på kampanpriser. Och med butiker över hela landet nära jobbet, föreningen där du är. Får du hjälp och leveransnabbt.

Business to business, Scandinavian, sleeping and living. Hej, Lendolej! Jag skulle vilja dela med mig av ett ordspråk jag gillar. Den som jämför kan finna bättre renta på sina lån. Svenska språket när det är som bäst. Jämför lån och välj den bästa rändan för dig på lendo.se, Sveriges största jämförelsetjänst för lån.

Welcome back. Uh now I guess if we'd been doing this podcast in a previous generation would have even been And you were kind of reporting from the campaign trail, you would only really have had to clip the Conservative leader, the Labour leader and the Liberal Democrat leader.

the nationalists. But now we've got lots more players in British politics. And to give you a flavor of what if you've been tuning in at all to the local elections you might have heard, uh here is a medley of what the political leaders can tell So as we go into these elections, we're fighting for international leadership, we're fighting for a focus on the cost of living, and we're fighting for pride in place across the

We can keep council tax down for struggling families. Somewhere we can deliver better public services, fix potholes, run better schools. Somewhere we can back business, back our high streets, and get our villages, towns, and cities working against the world. We go into the Test match. Confident. to beat the Conservatives, beat Labour and be the ones to hold off reform.

yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n improves their living standards, lowers bills and redistributes power and wealth from No more bending to Westminster's Yeah. No more towing the London Party line. No more defending the status quo. And no more saying no to Wales. For an SNP government that will deliver more cost of living support, a stronger NHS and a stronger economy.

Ond mae'n byddwn yn ymwneud â'r 2nd ymwneud â'r 2nd ymwneud â'r 2nd ymwneud â'r 2nd ymwneud â'r 2nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â'r 3nd ymwneud â

So that was uh Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenok, Kemi Badenot doing a bit of an impression of the West Side story um song somewhere, I thought. Um there was Ed Davy on Test Match Special, Nigel Farage. Uh, that former hypnotherapist now Green Party leader Zach Balanski. You get a special bonus point for Reap Yorworth, uh, from Ply Cymru and uh John Swinney, the uh leader of the SNP. And they've all been on the campaign trail because it's local elections, although we should say it's also national.

Wales, where they're voting for the Scottish Parliament. Senate and there are also big elections in London. These are the London Councils up, not the London Mayor. So Ed, I mean all the predictions are it's going to be a shocking night for Labour, and also the Conservatives are going to have some And that the kind of gains are gonna be s sort of spread between Reform Green Plied and S M P and the Lib Dem's kind of standing still.

What should we be looking out for? I mean, we we've got a week to go, we can discuss it on polling day in a week's time, but just now what we you know, if you're sitting there as a kind of Labour cabinet minister thinking, Well, just how bad is this? You know, do I make my move? Whatever. What are you looking what what what are the things to look out for? I wouldn't say on the night'cause it's gonna take a couple of days to count everything, but over the coming weekend I'll

Look, I think there are certain things which are already in the price but still very significant. So you know, it looks like there is gonna be an S and P government again wanting an independence vote. It looks like you're gonna have the first plied-led government displacing Labour uh ever in uh Wales. It looks like Reform and the Greens, who are both still, even compared to last taking huge amounts of votes according to the opinion poll.

from in the case of reform, the Conservatives, in the case of Green, uh Labour. It looks like it's gonna be a bit disappointing for the Lib Dems, although they may do okay in some of their um heartland areas. But I think for Kemi Badenok, If you are a new opposition leader, you want to make progress. William Haig, Ed Miliband, early won councillors. The Tories are going to lose councillors in large numbers to reform. In the case of Keir Starmer, incumbent governments tend to do bad things.

But it looks... Kirstarmer is going to be off the scale bad. I mean if it is really true that Labour's going to end up losing close to two thousand counsellors, that means not just a worse result than Labour in two thousand nine. Not just a worse result than Margaret Thatcher in nineteen eighty one, it's set to be the worst result. um in local elections. If they only lose like five hundred seats

It's um, you know, it's on average worse than how governments normally do, but they're gonna massively poll worse than that. I think if you are Labour, you are thinking, are we actually going to lose weight field? Barnesley, Gateshead, not just the council to the first. But are we actually going to end up losing, you know, potentially most, even all of our counters to reform? I mean you could see wipeouts in those northern town hearts.

In the case of London, are you actually gonna see the Greens not just making advances, are they gonna take control? Show. In Hackney, of the council, are they going to do the same in Waltham Forest? If you are the Conservatives where you need to come back in places like um Swindon, or Milton Keynes, are you not only not going to make progress, but actually seeing your s your party entirely displaced by reform?

Um, for the Lib Dems, do you do okay in the places where you need to do well in the general election? Or do you even, uh as it's happening I think, lose out to um Greens or or to reform in those areas. There'll be lots of MPs looking at how things happen in their own constituency. But also they'll be they'll be looking for these broader patterns. How much is reform entrenching itself across heartlands? How much are the greens

actually breaking through? And for the Conservatives, are they being displaced by reform across the South in areas where, you know, they have to be winning. To come back next time round. Look, some of these things we've seen before, we've seen governments doing badly in local elections. Okay, this could be the worst ever.

sort of shock factor. You know, we've seen the SNP doing really well in Scotland on a number of occasions now over the last twenty years. And the assault on the kind of Labour Northern heartlands. We've seen that happen before with Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn and the Red War. I think what will be kind of shocking for Labor.

will be if the Green Party makes inroads into those London 'Cause even at the heights of Boris Johnson's popularity or the Margaret Thatcher premierships, you know, never did those sort of inner London Labour campus. go uh, you know, to another party. You know, and they are they have huge a big feeder of people who end up being Labour MPs. So I think those London boroughs are going to be really significant. Um and I think also in Wales, I mean Wales is a kind of complicated story.

But you know, it is so tied into the history of the Labour Party and its origins. And it there's a possibility of a kind of Labour wipe. A cause of a sort of pincer movement of reform implied. True is that the the the word existential is often overused, but there's times when it's actually a good word to use. And I think for both the main parties. there will be results which potentially, you know, sow those kind of deep doubts about whether this is recoverable from.

Yeah, I mean I remember back in ninety seven the absolute shock. The Conservative Party, even after suffering a big landside defeat in Parliament, of essentially being wiped out in Wales and Scotland. And Labour's already been through that experience. the twenty twenty four general election. So to be kind of knocked right back in Scotland and then

Um I think for the let's start with the Conservatives and we'll come on to Keir Starmer's position. I think you know it may well be a big reality check for just how well or not well the Tories are doing.'Cause I think Kemi Baidenock has definitely Done much better over the last six months in as a individual performer in Parliament, and she's sort of demonstrated five.

And kind of get up and go and she's landed some important blows on the government, not least over the whole Mandelson scandal. So she you know, she's got kind of feathers in her cap. But the truth is during this period the Tory Party poll rating has continued to be a rock bottom. And to some degree her performance in Parliament has rather obscured that fact. It has parallels actually with William Haig doing quite a bit.

In the ninety seven to two thousand one Parliament, then you get to the election you just And if you know, the fact is that there have been defections to reform, as Keir Starmer was alluding to there. And I thought you had such an interesting incident in the last couple of weeks, which also speaks to Labour. You know, that this incredible story emerged. that Nigel Farage has been given not reform, Nigel Farage person

has been given five million pounds with no strings attached. Well, no strings attached in the sense of what he's supposed to spend the money on by this uh kind of crypto billionaire funder uh who lives overseas And um, you know, no one's really been able to land a glove on Farage. Either that he should have like properly reported it. He wasn't an MP at the time, but new MPs are

Kind of financial entanglements they have. And neither the Tory Party nor the Labour Party have been able to turn this into a huge scandal about. one of the big front runners or the front runner in British politics at the moment, Nigel Farage. would say now the kind of clear favourite to be the British Prime Minister. And if you think of all the rows about funding in the past and you know, this thing just sort of sails through. And I I'll come on to Labour, but I think in the for the Tories.

It is partly because they have not had the kind of ethical reset. They have not really said why did we lose last year? They they could point to things like, well, we weren't, you know, we didn't deliver on immigration and so on. But you know, I'm a strong believer they've never really taken on the kind of Boris Johnson. Period, and the legacy of that. And Christopher Harbin gave a million pounds to Boris Johnson, per se.

Or Boris Johnson, whatever that means. And so it's quite hard for the Tory party to say, having not complained about that, oh, but we do complain when he gives money to Nigel Ferrari. There needs to be the kind of performances in Parliament are great and the alternative is much worse.

you know, on the ropes and about to be deposed and so on, which was where she was a year ago. But, you know, getting into office, she is gonna have to really confront the kind of Tory party legacy if she's provided any kind of platform for really pivot on reform.

I mean the truth about the parliamentary performance. Is that they've given Kebby Baidenock some time. I mean, I don't think she's gonna be turf down the week after the local elections, even if as it looks, these gonna be bad results for the Conservatives. But as you say, in politics you've always got to know what is the big question And I think there's two actually. One is, as you just said, have the Conservatives really changed and faced up to what went wrong?

But the second question is if you can vote reform, why would you vote conservative? What is it about voting conservative? Which is different from voting reform. And I think they are still sitting back And thinking, well, you know, in the end Nudgel Farage, it's a bubble, it will burst, he'll blow himself up. And he might blow himself up over the donations and you know if it turns out there are strings attached or whatever. But there is a bigger question. What do the Conservatives offer?

which is distinct from, different from, and better for the country, better in terms of values than reform. And I I just don't think that she's sought to answer that question either yet. She's still I mean Robert Jenrick Going has given her a bit of breathing space. But has that meant that she has sort of doubled down on a economic message which differentiates from Rufford?

Or a view of Britain, which differentiates from reform, even a view of um of how you manage our borders, which differentiates from reform. And I think until she does that, Then why wouldn't you just vote reform? And that's what lo I mean, the fact is, compared to last year's local elections, she has lost loads of support. It's still the the drift to reform from Conservatives has continued over the last twelve months. And I don't think waiting for that to stop is a strategy.

What about Kiers Dama? I mean, you know, obviously there's lots of talk that then was gonna be a reshuffle, that's been dipped He was gonna bring Angela Rayner back into the cabinet, maybe Lucy Powell, who only just fired and then she became deputy leader of the Late Body. Louise Haig, who uh he fired um you know shortly after getting into office. A mobile phone. There's so much talk that people are waiting have been waiting.

I think the Ollie Robbins sacking was the moment when he lost the cabinet. I think that at that moment the cabinet Uh, there's always that problem then in politics. Who is going to be the first to move? You know, do is there a sort of first mover disadvantage?

the crown. Not true by the way, if you look at the career of someone like Margaret Thatcher, but uh you know, a potent myth in British politics. Um and then lots of talk about Labour Party rules making this so difficult and I mean what I I'm I'm you know I will speak for what I pick up the mood in the cabinet. But I still don't really see anyone who wants it enough to go I'm gonna go for it. I'm gonna grab.

Let's go to the you know the question. Which is going to be asked. the emotion of the Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday after the local elections. I remember, and you'd have had the same experience, George, being a Member of Parliament in the governing party. when you do badly in local elections and you have to go to the count as a Member of Parliament and councillors are losing their seats. And their friends who may have just won are angry on their behalf as well.

There are, it seems likely to be, you know, thousands, fifteen hundred, eighteen hundred, two thousand counsellors who lose their job and their income. They will think through no fault of their own and they and MPs who have relied upon them as part of their teams for years are gonna be I mean they'll be angry but they'll also be like

upset. But then this is the point. It goes to the question. What is the question? If you think about those kind of big moments where you have governing parties doing uh badly. I mean Margaret Thatcher, nineteen eighty one, you know, rising unemployment Tony Blair two thousand three four The Iraq War. Gordon Brown, the global um financial crisis. In the case of Boris Johnson, the aftermath of the pandemic and then Party Gate. And people people saw what had gone wrong, what what the problem

to fix. If you go back to a year ago when Labour did really badly in the local What was the issue then? What was everybody coming back and saying? But by the way, in two thousand eight with Gordon Brown, it was the abolition of the ten P tax. Last year it was the abolition of the winter fuel allowance. I mean it was so deep and scarring for the Labour vote and therefore sort that out. Sort out, you know, gotta do a U-turn and a U-turn is done. What is the question?

That people will be coming back. You know, what's the diagnosis? What is it which has gone wrong? Well, But they can have a king speech to relaunch in policy, but is that the reason? They can have a a reshuffle because we want to change the cabinet. Is that what people are going to see is the reason? I mean what Rachel Reeves and Kirst Armor will now want to say is you know it was Donald Trump and the war in Iran, but the the squeeze on living standards and in the opinion polls preceded.

uh the war in Iran. And in the last couple of weeks the briefing from number ten was actually Kirstarmer's doing better now because of his leadership on the war in Iran. And I think I think when you have coming together a big loss and people want to know what the diagnosis is, you know, what has gone wrong, which we can now

And I don't know what the Keir Starmer diagnosis is. And when you um listen to him in Primus's Questions, which we played in our first segment, you didn't really feel as though There was, you know, an acknowledgement, a diagnosis there, but when you get devastated politically

Unless, you know, Gordon Brown could say it's a global financial crisis but we'll get through it or the Tempe tax rate, we're gonna do a U turn. And Tony Blair could say, Well the Iraq war, but this is how we're turning things round and you know

Um I guess you would have been able to say um in twenty eleven, twenty twelve, the economy's gonna grow. I mean, w what's the question which has got to be answered and you know Rydyn ni'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd i'n mynd

The current the current British ambassador. No, I think if you listen even to the Keir Starmer clip we played at the top, it says we're fighting for international leadership. I mean that's a funny message to take onto the council election doorsteps. We're fighting for a focus on the cost of living. Well, yeah, he suddenly is fighting to focus on the cost of living.

If Labour MPs and councillors have heard on the doorstep saying, Look, I'm not going to vote for you because there's not enough focus on the cost of living and there's not enough international leadership, well then maybe that will help you turn it around. I'd be very surprised if that's what they're saying on the doorstep.

No, I mean th there are th we should end here'cause we've got But and who knows, that's the great thing about democracies, you don't know what the result's gonna be. But um you know, it's interesting that when these elections were held four years ago, and most of these elections, it was Um because the issue actually was not the economy or anything, it was it was the Prime Minister. And uh I suspect the focus this time is But we will see.

Quick punt. Um national adjusted voting share,'cause that will all be calculated in the days after. Um I don't think we should start trying to make predictions of um what the the the numbers Um, although I think we've got a pretty good idea who they're gonna be good for, who they're gonna be bad for. The five main parties in um you know in England is more complicated when you're looking at Scotland and Wales. What do you think? I'm gonna punt on this. I'm gonna say reform comes.

Greens come second. I'm going to say Labour third, Tory fourth, Lib Democrat. Although the Libdens may be annoyed because they'll say actually we're doing a bit better and the Tories will say we can displace Labour. I I think if if if Kirstarmer comes third, that's a a really bad result. If he slips to fourth or fifth, There's a whole question of why the Liberal Democrats aren't doing a lot better. Are you saying reform Greens? Reform Green Tory Labour.

By the way, we have the right to revise our predictions in a week's time, because when we do our podcast next week, it will still not be known. So we can come back to this in a week's time. Or we just delete this episode. Yeah. Anyway. We are going to turn finally and briefly to the assisted dying bill which died in this uh session of Parliament, but may be And we'll come back after this break. V att företagets hållbarhetsarbete kan innebära utmaningar? Hur säkrar ni affären? Vora especialista.

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Welcome back. It's been a year since we last discussed the assisted dying bill, which has just run out of time. It's stalled in the House of Lords, and Parliament has been progued, and that is the end of that piece of legislature. Yeah, I think there's a big question of the government's leadership here. It gave huge support to of what happens next uh in the new session of parliament.

uh local elections. But I think it's worth going back to the conversation we had in December 2024 about Where you were giving some pretty clear advice to the government and and a half. Led by the MP Kim Ledbetter about how to get this onto the statute book. This is a reminder of what we were saying about a Rydyn ni'n ei wneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud.

We think the Kim led Better's done a brilliant job of raising this issue. We don't think yet we've got to a place where we can see a way forward. What the government is now going to do is start Some kind of review process, could it be a role commission, could be judge led, it could be small panel expert-led to report with a fixed date next year. At that point, Kim Ledbetter says, Look, I've got as far as I can with this bill. She withdraws and

The bill drops the private member's bill, we have that process, and then we come back, if it can be made to work, with government legislation next year. That is the best way, and I think it may be the only way. And the campaigners will be frustrated, but the thing which will really frustrate them is if this gets kicked in the long grass. But if it's defeated, it's defeated for

So that's the big question. I I mean, isn't it way too late now to kinda do a Royal Commission and the like? And the government doesn't have the political authority. Uh it will be a hell of a fight now. So maybe they you know that was a route they could have taken in the past. I think the simple question.

Yay, we've got the new session of parliament coming up. Because of the House of Lords Lloyd George and all of that, and the way our Constitution works, uh, you know, the House of Lords can't block it again if it's introduced in the same way into the House of Commons and pass. Commons, but that will require the Starmer government to give it time so it doesn't get killed off in the House of Commons. So it's all a bit technical, but I it sort of comes down to a decision in the cabinet.

from the Prime Minister, which is we're gonna throw our weight to get this bill onto the state Is that do you think is what gonna happen or or is as I was saying there I don't think it's necessarily defeated for a generation. Um the opinion polls are clear that there is a majority in the country for action on The opinion polls also say. So the in other words, the debate from the opponent. And all the frustrating tactics and all the issues that raise many

you know, legitimate issues have not really swayed public opinion. Public opinion remains convinced that this is the right direction to go. But if you look at the Ugov polling, there is also a majority of people who say That significant numbers of people would take their life because they can't afford care. or because they think they are a burden to others. And I think part of the problem with legislation has always been

that um because it hadn't gone through enough of a substantive government process, there were questions about how it would work, which haven't been resolved. And I think there's lots of people who will oppose this bill, who in principle are in favour if you could be sure it would really work properly. Now look I know, but isn't that kind I mean this is the legislation and if th if it's not this I think you have to play a long game. I don't think the I mean they'll try. I don't think

that this is going to succeed in the next session through another piece of backbench led uh legislation. I don't think the private members' bill route is now going to work. I also don't think I'd be very surprised if the government I'm going to wants to bring legislation in the next parliament, government legislation, at a time when the Health Secretary West Streeting has been opposed, when the Justice Secretary now the Home Secretary Shibana Mahmood is

uh opposed and when these issues haven't been resolved and I just don't think they have been. So I don't think this will now get onto the statute. So I don't think it's for this. So what do you mean? You mean in the next general election? The next year. So that is that's a long time. Yeah. Yeah. And they also assumes Labour wins the election, which is not currently on the cards, right?

But I mean it's also for Kemi Badenok to make that decision as well. And if I was Keir Starmer and I wanted to leave

Because he clearly wanted to lead this at the last election, but then as I was explaining 18 months ago, he had an option as to how to lead it and he hasn't done so, and therefore it's sort of collapsed around him. I would now set up Which not only looks at the principle but the practicalities, which seeks to build a consensus it doesn't have to be a role commission, but some kind of process to see whether you can get

the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Government on side. The ideal thing would be to get to um more than one manifesto commitment. We've talked before about how tuition fees were introduced after the election

through manifesto commitments to keep tuition tuition fees but to reform. We've we've talked also about how that's happened uh in the end it happened with bank independence, with the national minimum wage, it happened with the pension age. It happened also with um auto enrollment for pensions. So The government should set up a process to report before the election. The campaigners should say we support this.

It's not a big betrayal. It's the right way to go. You should seek to build in the country a way to deliver public opinion's aim, assistant dying, without their fears, which are real. And then if you then get manifesto commitments, then in the next parliament you legislate. Other than that, I don't think it's gonna happen. And uh my fear is that things will become more divided and more acrimonious in the next parliament through a second failure.

of a private member's process and I don't think that's in the interest of the campaigners. Now there'll be lots of campaigners who will be annoyed at me for saying this and saying, no, no, the Lords can't block it. It's not just about filibus there was filibustering in the law.

But that wasn't the fundamental problem. The government's got to lead this and you've got to win the big argument about how as well as the principle. And if you don't do that, then it just gets mired in division and control.

Yeah, I'm not sure I completely agree with you because I think if you go down the route you're suggesting Not just into the long grass, but because there's no real explanation. Second time with a big majority. with a small majority or in coalition with Liberal Democrats. This is not sort of setting up a process that is going to deliver in Borova. I don't think the Conservatives given the So it his kind of So you think it's over for generations?

I think it's I if I was a campaigner I think it would be worth having a number Trying to assemble the majority for shaming the labour. possibly Kirstov, maybe someone else by then, to say, Hold on, like we've twice passed this. Now you you know, now government, you do what you can Use the parliament out.

I hear you. My worry is that I fear now is the strategy which definitely consigns it not to happen in this generation. And sometimes you have to play a long game and sometimes big reforms take time. Then that's true, but also you can miss the moment and they don't come back. Hmm. Okay, sorry, we haven't been able to give unified advice to Um but it's uh certainly very interesting, isn't it?

Quite a change from the assumption, I think, shortly after the Labour government got in that the Why about now? Not an assumption that you or I ever I have to say. We were we were more skeptical, but uh anyway, not a clear route forward. Uh you can pick Ed's of ice or mine. Or you can try both. Um anyway, that is it for uh this week. Thanks uh for listening. Join us on Monday for Ex Minister's Questions where we answer all your biggest political questions and ideas.

Yeah, and if you can't wait until Monday you of course can't Early ad free by becoming a member of our kitchen cabinet or one of our guests. EMQs three days early. Special newsletter bonus card. Well actually. And if you want to send your question into EMQs. Dot co dot uklease include a voice note with your question. So we'll see you on Monday for EMQs. Oh that was Ed's phone going. Thanks for listening to the This has been a Persifonica.

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