The WESP report on Global Growth

that China is actually having with this particular virus. So sounding similar to again to COVID nineteen all over again for those of you who are trying to think based on according to WHO basic health response based on the expected increase of respiratory infections during the winter, Countries including China, have been providing health messages to the public on how to prevent the spread of respiratory infections and reduced the

impact of disease. The WHO risk assessment temperature. In temperate climates, seasonal epidemics of common respiratory pathages, including infalenza, occur often during winter periods. The observed increases of acute respiratory infections are associated pathogens detections in many countries in northern Hemisphere in the recent weeks at this time of the year, which is also very true. Heye, you know, we're we're locked inside of each other.

stay home and avoid infecting other people and rest. People at high risk or with complicated or severe symptoms should seek medical care as soon as possible. Individuals should consider wearing a mask in crowded or poorly ventiveulated spaces, cover costs and sneezes with a tissue or a bent elbow, practice regular hand washing, and get recommended vaccines as per

efficient or local public health authorities. Advise the WHO advisors member states to maintain surveillance for all respiratory pathogens throughout and integrit it approach, considering country contexts, priorities, resources and capacities. The WHO has published a guide for such things to In other words, they're they're asking public health officials to track what is actually happening in their local areas so that they can so they can be reported back to

them and they collect data on it. So best advice is to prevent such things from spreading the disease, washing hands, all the all those common sense things that we usually do. Anyway, scope of the situation is in many countries in Northern Hemisphere, trends of acute respiratory infections increase at this time of year.

These increase increases are typically caused by seasonal epidemics of respiratory pathogens such as influenza, respiratory cynical virus or RSV, and other common respiratory viruses including hmp V and as well as the mio plasma pneumonia. Many countries conduct routine surveillance for acute respiratory infections and common pathogens. Currently, some countries in temperate and Northern Hemisphere include influenza like illnesses

and acute respiratory infections. Rates have increased in recent weeks above the normal baselines, following usual seasonal trends. The seasonal influenza activity is elevated in many countries in the northern hemisphere where surveillance data is available. Trends in RSV detections currently vary by region, and recently there has been a interest in the HMPV cases in China, including suggestions of

hospitals being overwhelmed with cases. Is a commons HMPV is a common respiratory virus found to circulate in many countries in the wintertime through to spring, although not all countries routinely test and publish the data for the h mp V virus. While some cases can be hospitalized with bronchitis or pneumonia, most people infected with the h m p v UH have mild upper respiratory symptoms similar to the

common cold, and recover in just a few days. So there's been a lot of news reports about this uh, this virus, and again we just really need to follow those common sense things and wash our hands if you have the sneeze or cough, you know, cough into the crook of your elbow so that it doesn't spread more onto your hands. Because you used to cough into your hands, you're more out to spread that virus onto surfaces. So latest report from WHO about the HMPV virus, which is

also a common virus causing bronchitis and possibly pneumonia. So moving forward, we are going to hear from Daniel Smith. So Alberta Premier Daniel Smith holds a news conference in Calgary to discuss the establishment of a new working group between provincial government and Enbridge with the aim of moving more Alberta oil and gas across Canada and the United States. She is joined by the Enbridge CEO, greg A Bell. So we'll hear more about that from the UN press room.

Global growth stagnates at about two point eight percent for twenty twenty five, below the pre pandemic levels, according to

a press conference. And we're going to be hearing from mister Lee John Joe, the Under Secretary for Economic and Social Affairs with the United Nations and the Director of Economic Analysis and Policy Division at the u n D e s A, with mister Chantau Mokahira and mister Hamad Rashid, Chief Global Economic Monitoring Branch Economic Analysis and Public Division at the u N d e s A. As they talk about economic developments globally and the report that they're

going to be speaking about will also be launched regionally in Bangkok, Beirut, Geneva, Mexico, Moscow, New Delhi early January. According to the u N Flagship Report released today January ninth, the global economic growth is projected at two point eight

percent for twenty twenty five. The World Economic Situation and Perspective of twenty twenty five report shows A shows that despitewithstanding a series of mutually reinforcing shocks and global economic growth has stagnated it and will remain below pre pandemic levels of three point two percent. The report was produced by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, highlighting enduring impact of weak investments, sluggage projectivity, and high debt

levels on global economic performances. It also will underscore the importance of global cooperation, prudent policies and lift growth and in place it on place it on stable, stable and equitable pathway that can accelerate the progress towards the SDGs. So why don't we listen in as we hear from the United Nations on this report, and then we'll move back to hearing. What a restatement from Danielle Smith.

Monitoring Branch in UN Dessa. So I think we'll get started right away with some introductory remarks by mister Lee.

World Economic Situation Prospect Report. As you know, this flagship report is prepared by Desert Department of Economy and the Social Affairs in the partnership was actor under the five, the U and Regional Economic Commissions and the UN Tourism Organization. So the outset, let me take this opportunity to express our sincere thanks for our partners I just want to highlight the one key observations before I go into the details.

Let us our current assessment indicates that the water economy has largely avoided a broad based contraction despite the unprecedented shocks of the last few years and the most prolonged period of the monetary tightening in the history. So for the twenty twenty five our projection is that the global growth will be around the two point eight percent. Led to the twenty twenty four lower inflation, monetary easing and the recovery of the international trade underpain, the list relatively

stable outlook. Nevertheless, we know that this red remains well below the pre pandemic average of the three point two percent the recorded demoth over twenty ten to twenty nineteen.

The recovery remains uneven, driven primarily by a few large economies. Subdue, the growth prospects pose significant challenges, particularly for the developing countries grossing in the over ninety percent of the least developed countries is projected to full shot of the seven percent the target needed for the achievement of the many SDGs. Since limited the physical space, weak investment, and the low productivity growth continue to hinder the economic prospects for developing

countries climate change and geopolitical tensions. Was there potentially for the spinning over the events into the economic performance post additional risks. Despite these challenges, our report highlights concrete the passways in which countries can work, both individually and in collaboration to place the water on a more rod bust

pass towards the sustainable development. Addressing debt challenges, curbing illicit financial flows, and strengthening domestic resource mobilization can increase the public revenues for investing in the SDGs. For many countries. The rising global demand for the mineral for the minerals critical for the energy transition presents an unique opportunity to stimulate the growth, create jobs, under reduce the poverty and inequality.

the economy as well as shortened forecasts. Urgent actions are needed to address the debt to sustain they challenges in many countries, especially the countries in the special situations, to close the gap in technology, financing, and infrastructure that hindered equitable growth, and to ensure that the accelerated energy transition reduces climate the risks for all of us. The challenges we face are complex, but the solutions are within our

reach if we worked together. I trust that the twenty twenty five edition of the West was served as an insightful resource offering the guidance towards the building a more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable global economy. I apologize that I can't be able to be with you to clarify or answer the questions, but that I trust my cotics I would do a good job on behalf of me, so that I invite my colleagues to share the further details of the report for you.

a period of stable subpower growth. And what's notable is that if you look at our forecasts and you also look at look back at what has been happening, we've had kind of five years of growth performance that's below the three point two percent average in the decade leading up to twenty nineteen. So this may sound a bit like what we were saying last year, but actually, if you lift the hood and take a peek at the engine,

things are humming. One of these is that global inflation is expected to slow further, from an estimated four percent in twenty twenty four to three point four percent in twenty twenty five, and that means in twenty twenty five that's a drop of almost sixty percent relative to its peak in twenty twenty two, and in response, most central banks are lowering their rates. Of the one hundred plus that we track, about two thirds had already done so by the end of last year, roughly double from the

end of the previous year. One big uncertain factor is actually the duration and extent of the easing, because inflationory pressures continue to lurk, and particularly since the policy decisions of the major central banks such as the FED and the ECB kind of riverbrate across the world. This is

a significant source of uncertainty as we enter this year. Nevertheless, the easing has already led to modest turnarounds in investment and in cross border financing in twenty twenty four, which is after a two year slump, and we have also seen a significant rebound in global trade. Will I'm sure talk about that in both gods and services. Now that's a global picture, but for developing countries that continue to

be appreciable differences visa we developed once. For developing countries, our forecast is four point three percent in twenty twenty five and four point two percent in twenty twenty six, remaining well below the five point two percent average in the previous decade. Now, in comparative terms, this gap with respect to the pre pandemic trend is larger for developing countries than developed countries, in other words, slower to catch up.

And while inflation is trending downwards in developing countries too, it remains noticeably higher. Is estimated to be about six percent in twenty four and projected at five point one one percent in twenty five. These inflation numbers are one and a half times those for developed countries, and they've been persisting. And that's a sign of how severe the cost of living crisis is for most of us outside of this room. And you know, we might say that

there's subpower growth in both developed and developing countries. There's been monetary tightening, so isn't there some kind of parity. Well, actually, developing countries face far more severe constraints. If you in twenty twenty four, if you look at the amount of public money that was used to service debt to pay off interest. The media and developing country was eleven point one percent of its revenues went for this. That's more than four times the amount for the media and developed country.

African country is actually allocated over a quarter of their revenue Z on their own average, which leaves very little for meaningful investment in the STGES. Even among developing countries as are used. She said, there are variations, with the more vulnerable, such as the least developed countries, tending to be systematically worse in relative terms. So what does this mean for the STGs? All of it is that the

prognosis is challenging. Although we've had good news, modestly good news in terms of things like extreme poverty rates returning to pre pandemic averages, the way forward is not so straightforward. There have been cumulative setbacks over the past few years. Growth expectations as you're seeing have been modest, and there are significant downside risks from climate shocks or spillovers of

geopolitical tensions. However, at the same time, the overall expectation that there will be stable growth in the midst of all this divergence means that there is really a scope for international cooperation that can combine with individual country efforts. The report has detailed recommendations. My colleague Amid will become several of them. I just want to highlight a little

bit more. Apart from the resolving the public debt burdens issue, which has already come up and which we expect will be taken up in fifty and other important for he as well is about accelerating the pace of the just energy transition, so the transition itself benefits all and if we can ensure that developing countries with the minerals needed to drive the transition can turn these resources into STG gains,

that is a significant win. The reason we're bringing this up is because many of the countries that are identified as having significant amounts of these minerals are also home to some of the largest populations living in poverty and inequality. So if you get this right, it could open the doors to transformative results. Experience with natural resource led development indicates that such outcomes can't be guaranteed, they can often turn around. There is a scope for enabling them through

multi stakeholder efforts. For more details and for a much more in depth look, handing over to now thank you.

One of the head winds is that uncertainties and trade tensions that we see already there.

impact of development impact of growth. We need to look at park capital growth performance, and there we see quite a bit of variation across regions, and we see especially except for South Asia region, in twenty twenty four, all the regions had park capital growth rate below their pre

pandemic averages. Most striking was the growth rate that we saw in Africa in twenty twenty four, which is almost an half a percentage point GDP growth rate, not enough to reduce poverty, not enough to reduce all these systemic issues that challenges that we see in those countries, and also regionally, if you look at Western Asia and other other regions, Latin American Caribbean also growth performance was subpar

relative to pre pandemic levels. We see some improvements in twenty twenty five on part capita terms, but not significant. In some regions, we'll see some improvement but not broad based in terms of the most vulnerable group of countries. And we see that as seeds small island developing states, they did relatively well in twenty twenty four and would probably do well in twenty twenty five as well because of the recovery quick recovery in tourism many of these countries. Inflation,

I would not go into the details. There's again there's quite a bit of variation betn't developed and doubling countries that came up. So one of the things that we have to look at is that this trend is inflation is are trended downward across the board, with some exceptions, especially if you look at the regional variations in inflation. Still Africa's inflation is double digit on average, which is still quite worrisome. And also we also see high inflation

in Western Asia as well, sixteen percent average inflation. And with that inflation in many parts of the world, especially where there's a significant amount of poverty, we are witnessing simultaneous food in security problem and the cost of living crisis.

the good news is. It rebounded sharply in twenty twenty four, reach three point four percent growth rate compared to only point nine percent the previous year in twenty twenty three. Massive rebound and that is quite a was it good news for the global economy, and we expect trade to

remain strong in twenty twenty five with some variation. Of course, investment also picked up in twenty twenty four, and we continue to expect some investment momentum, especially given the low interest rates probably would support investment in many parts of the world. Level markets again mixed picture between developed and developing countries. Developed countries recovered very quickly from the pandemic

related shocks to the employment. Actually, total employment in developed countries was three point six percent higher than they had it was the during the pre pandemic period, and the same with liver forced participation rate. Female participation rate actually increased significantly, but the story is very different for the developing countries.

in twenty twenty four. And another important indicator our point of concern for US is that youth unemployment in many parts of the world remains very high elevated neat one indicator that we observe and not in employment, education and training. That is also significantly high in some cases over twenty five percent in South Asia, which is also a concerning trend.

One of the consequences of slow growth is that it really strains the fiscal space because slow growth means slow government revenue growth and at the same time, debt servicing remains constant or sometimes can increase depending on the cycle of the debt. So we see a significant squeezing of the fiscal space in many parts of the world, and

that is a worri Is symbol. Is that is affecting our crowding out other investments and other public sector spending, especially for SDGs, and we see there will also a pressure given that high levels of debt, there were pressure on many countries to cut back spending and go for fiscal consolidation, and we have warned consistently against fiscal consolidation, especially if it's prematureuse that can slow down growth further. With further dampening revenue growth and further spending cuts, it

can be a downward vicious downward spiral. So in that respect, international cooperation be very critical, especially supporting trade growth and also reducing the dead bodies of many developing countries. So the silver lining for our report, we focus on the critical mineral sector. This is a sector where it has it presents huge potential for countries that are endowed with those resources and nickels and lithium, cobalt, all the minerals

that are needed for energy transitions. But again, as Shantanu mentioned earlier, that just having resources doesn't mean any doesn't give the guarantee that it will lead to economic development. It may give some growth short term growth spurts, but may not lead to sustainable development. They're good governance and other factors that play very important role. And we see that there are many countries that are endowed with those resources.

There's a lot of interest in those resources from foreign investors mining companies, but they have to put in place the right kind of framework to make sure that those resources benefit the local communities, especially the constants of stakeholders. Will be very important to ensure these minerals are benefits are equably distributed. Labor standards would play very important role here. Again, two sets of.

Policies and institutional support would be needed, but at the same time a lot of public private partnerships would be needed to make sure that needed investments are there so that we can accelerate energy transition and support the SGG objectives of those many of those countries, So.

very important role to prevent the illicit flow of financial flows and to make sure more resources stay in those countries.

You also said that it's I think it's three point five percent growth of trade global trade in twenty twenty five. Now, we've all heard in the last few weeks a lot of tariff threats, not just by the United States but all around the world. In that context, do you see that projection of global trade going down and the economy you don't have it in your international cooperation? And what

did you base the three point five percent growth? Was it without additional wars or tariffs that would impede that?

Yes for next year, yes, yes, And as Hamid said that a lot of things go into these predictions, but we rely on actual policies, and a big driver of that slight reduction coming up is things like slightly slower growth in the US itself, not because of a sudden change in government policies, but because the average growth in the US has been above mean for a while, and when that happens, it comes back to me in after

a while. So the US is a big driver of world trade, both in terms of imports and exports, so slow in growth in the US would mean that slight reduction in the volume of trade other factors. Now your question about tariffs and tariff announcements, I think I think one shouldn't look at tariff's in isolation, tariff's by one country in isolation, even announcements by one country in isolation.

I think previous experience shows that people do respond to tariff's in different ways, and so one has to look at the what comes out of the wash, as it were, when these moves and countermoves have actually played out. So in our modeling, we prefer to wait for some of these strategic moves by countries to actually play out, and that gives us a more stable basis for projecting.

The Government of Alberta's ambition is to double oil and gas production, and today we've signed a letter of intent with Enbridge to accelerate these growth opportunities and ensure more capacity for oil and gas is available across more than twenty nine thousand kilometers of pipelines in the Enbridge network. This added capacity objective is critical to Alberta and our

most important trading partner, the United States. Alberta's oil directly supports more than fifty US based refineries with direct investment in more than twenty US states, and is essential to affordability, growth, economic prosperity, and energy security in the United States and globally. Alberta oil and natural gas is also a reliable and important feedstock for essential products produced in the United States, especially in the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan

and Wisconsin. Our first step in this agreement will be creating a formal working group made up of the Government of Alberta, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, and Enbridge senior representatives. This working group will assess opportunities for shared investment and expanding pipeline capacity, transportation, storage, and new pipeline opportunities in

the future across Enbridge's entire network. There will also be a focus on streamlining regulations and permitting approvals and red tape reduction that will include a provincial as well as a national cross border perspective. This is one example of

the items the working group will be discussing. Others include direct engagement with the Canadian Energy Regulator to expedite capacity expansion and permitting and approvals for oil and gas in Alberta and across borders that today are too slow and too cumbersome and in no way reflect the need to compete with impending regulatory reform coming in the United States. Engagement with producers to ensure future capital growth plans align with the intended outcomes from the working group, to deliver

more oil and gas and keep differentials competitive. We will identify actions our government will need to take to streamline approvals and expedite policy in support of accessing barrels through our existing vichumen royalty in kind program and developing a program for gas royalty in kind sooner an earliest and also early assessment of additional indigenous opportunities and how the Alberta Indigenous Opportunity Corporation could participate in the opportunities advanced

by the working Group. Increasingly, Alberta's ability to move more oil and gas will encourage producers to increase production and start new capital projects in Alberta in support of our economic prosperity. Recent discussions with oil Sense producers identified that over the last year, organic growth in the oil Sense was over seven percent. These added pipeline These added pipeline capacity plans will require more production and more capital investment

in the future. Doubling oil and gas production in Alberta has been a goal of my administration since about day one. Increased production means increased investment, increased jobs and increased royalties for Alberton's. Today's announcement is about our work with Enbridge and we thank them for their leadership and action in

support of doubling Alberta's oil production going forward. The opportunities that they have identified are significant, and now the work begins to advance these in support of our shared ambition.

We are also in discussions with the other pipeline companies and look forward to advancing ideas and opportunities that can continue to provide Alberton's who own this resource, with investment returns and proactive market access opportunities for Alberta's oil and gas assets in the intermediate In the immediate future, Alberta cannot afford to be passive when it comes to providing our energy to North America and globally to the billions

of people who today live in energy poverty. We have a responsibility to ensure our oil and natural gas has market access. Actions like this announcement with industry today ensure that we will be active in this responsibility and active in this pursuit with our largest trading partner, the United States,

who shares these same values. Alberta's exports of four point three million barrels per day of heavy oil, which is almost equivalent to the amount of light oil that the US exports globally today, demonstrates the critical alignment of our North American oil market and highlights our long partnership and

support of addressing energy security globally. Alberta accounts for fifty six percent of total US oil imports, enabling them to export light oil to European, Scandinavian and Asian countries from the United States. The US needs to import heavy oil from somewhere, and we believe we are a far better partner than Iraq, Iran or Venezuela. This announcement today with n Bridge is about strengthening the bonds with the United States and about increasing production of Alberta's reliable oil and gas.

It's also about supporting advancing egress sooner and supporting investment, job creation, and other objectives in Alberta and the United States. The United States Ambition for Global Energy Security and dominance, the US ambition to support affordability and lower energy costs domestically in the United States, and the clear call to action across North America to electrify in support of AI demand includes Alberta oil and gas. To support these priorities,

Alberta will not sit back. We intend to demonstrate our support for the United States via our integrated pipeline network today and tomorrow, and I do want to thank Greg and the entire leadership team at Enbridge in taking this important first step. The opportunities are present and it's time for our teams to get to work in bringing these to fruition and support of Alberta energy security and enhanced

capacity within Canada and the United States. Thank you, and i'd now like to invite Greg Ebel to speak well.

and Enbridge itself. Let me first acknowledge the leadership by you, Premier. I appreciate that very much in keeping Alberta growing and a key part of North America's energy security and prosperity. As most of you know, Enbridge plays a rather unique

and key role in the continental energy value chain. We were the first to connect Western Canadian oil supplies with key US markets more than seventy five years ago, and we've grown with North American energy needs, working collaboraty with our customers, with governments, with communities and indigenous groups to ensure safe, reliable, and first class energy solutions. We have been the partner of choice for a very long time, and we remain committed to being that partner of Joyce

for all our stakeholders. With rapidly growing North American energy demand driven by data centers and AI the resurgence of domestic manufacturing, we need all of the above approach that includes oil and gas. As we like to say, you can't run a full time economy on part time energy, and as the Premier has underscored, Alberta's energy is key to North America's energy security. The world needs more Alberta

oil and gas. Over the last decade, Enbridge has invested over twenty billion dollars to support resource development in Western Canada, unlocking new markets right across North America, ensuring that Alberta and can receive top value for commodities. That's included a growth growing amount of oil transported on our mainline system from one point five million barrels a day to where we are today three point two million barrels today, achieved

through low cost expansions and optimizations. As Enbridge has continuously demonstrated, by our optimizing of our pipelines and leveraging our existing footprint, we can deliver incremental capacity in a phased and cost effective manner, meeting today's needs while continuously looking to meet tomorrow's needs. Importantly, with the benefits of Enbridge's pipes that are already in the ground and our existing right away, our approach is less impactful on stakeholders, communities, and the

environment overall relative to large greenfield projects. Enbridge really has a multifaceted supersystem that starts here in Alberta, stretches and serves demand markets and supply basins right across North of Mala America, making the entire continent stronger, more productive, and more prosperous. We're very please be working with the Premier and the province to keep that track record of success

rolling along. And because we successfully operate these pipeline supersystems and Bridge is prepared and exceptionally well positioned to work with producers and governments to increase capacity as production ramps up now and right through the decade, delivering economic, scalable,

executable solutions that support energy security and affordability. So we're excited to work with the Government of Alberta and our US partners and governments on how we can best leverage our existing systems to grow capacity for Canadian and US oil production, supporting growth from the Western Canadian sedimentary Basin Bachin and Rocky's Basins for domestic use, and while also

supporting exports to our international allies. As the operator of the largest crude export terminal in North Amyera, improving global access for North American crude oil is a key focus of ours, of our customers and governments that we participate with all of this is a smart thing to do, and again we appreciate the Premier's leadership and support of

private sector solutions via government partnerships. Unlocking capacity for both Canada and the United States reinforces the value and the strength of North America's integrated energy system systems that help ensure energy reliability and affordability for consumers, but also sustains competitiveness and economic prosperity for citizens on both sides of

the border. Mbridge is always developing opportunities with our customers and stakeholders to add valuable egress out of the Western Canadian sedimentary basin, and we have been recently talking about such opportunities on the mainline and our market access pipelines. So we look forward to working with the Berta government and are customers in developing further opportunities that utilize our

existing footprint. Over the coming months and through twenty twenty five, we will be sharing more details with you and the investment community and customers as these opportunities firm up in the marketplace, and as we prudently develop our broader projects. We'll obviously be engaging with all the various stakeholders again, customers, communities,

governments and indigenous groups. So maybe i'll just wrap up their premieer and just by reiterating that we are thrilled to be the Alberta government's partner of choice and our customers and successfully deliver on these opportunities. Thank you again, Premier, and it's clear why you continue to be the first choice to lead Alberta.

We could take our oil and kind and then be able to fill that that pipeline with that, or we could act as an aggregator for some of the smaller producers because we have heard that that's one of the complications that they have. So that's the role that we would play is being essentially the first on the line to send the signal to the rest of the marketplace that this is a pipeline that's going to go ahead and we are intend to be one of the producers

on it. That I think is a way for us to give the security without putting up potentially cash dollars of taxpayers. That's what we're hoping to see. We'll see how the market responds to this, but we have also sent a signal to other pipeline companies that we're prepared to do the same thing. So we hope that this is the first of several types of announcements like this.

And I'll turn it over to Greg to tell you a little bit more about what he would have in mind about how to increase that pipeline access on the end bridge lines.

our producers here. It's a little early to kind of give you all those details, but again over the next couple of months and throughout the year, I think you'll be impressed, as I always aim, by the producers here in the province and their ability to grow. And as the Premier says, yeah, we're not we're not looking for dollars and cents from the government obviously. It's about them utilizing the pipeline systems to get the best value for Elberton's for the commodities that are produc here.