Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify? (The future of podcasting's biggest deal) - podcast episode cover

Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify? (The future of podcasting's biggest deal)

Nov 03, 20237 minEp. 4
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Episode description

In 2020, when podcasting was at its peak boom, Spotify signed a three-year exclusivity deal with Joe Rogan, thought to be worth $200 million.

That deal expires sometime near the end of 2023, and Spotify's CEO, Daniel Ek, is under pressure.

In her piece for the Verge, Ariel Shapiro says: 

"Rogan is still the best bet the company has ever made. He remains the top podcaster in the world, and it’s not close."

But on the other hand, Daniel Ek is under a lot of pressure to pull back Spotify's investment in podcasting. During Spotify's April earnings call, the CEO admitted he'd overpaid and over-spent on podcasts. At that time, they also reported a net loss of $248 million and admitted the podcasting business wasn't yet profitable.

That said, it's very likely that Spotify wants to renew its deal with Joe Rogan.

In her article, Ariel Shapiro comments:

"If he walks or (less likely) if Spotify chose not to renew, it would be another massive blow to the company’s podcasting editorial operation."

Another interesting question is whether or not there's another platform with the desire and financial capacity to license the Joe Rogan Experience.

For example, I believe it's unlikely that Apple Podcasts would make a deal; I don't think they have the temperament to work with Rogan. Plus, they've invested little in producing or licensing podcast content in-house: Bloomberg reports they've only spent about $10 million.

I believe there are only three contenders that might be interested: SiriusXM, Amazon, and YouTube.

First up, SiriusXM. They've made huge investments in personalities before—look at Howard Stern's massive deal. But would they stretch their budget even further for Rogan? It's possible but seems unlikely.

Then we have Amazon. With deep pockets and a growing interest in podcasting demonstrated by their acquisition of Wondery, they could be serious contenders if they double down on their audio investments.

And lastly, YouTube. Rogan's clips thrive on the platform, and while they haven't paid for exclusivity in the past, the potential ad revenue for both parties could be too tempting to ignore.

I'm skeptical that any of these platforms are as eager to spend hundreds of millions of dollars securing Joe Rogan. These big players jumped into podcasting because it was the hot new thing; and after Spotify's splashy $1 billion dollar investment, there was a lot of pressure to follow suit.

But now Spotify seems to be hitting the brakes, and now we're seeing other companies pull back their investment as well.


In her article, Shapiro also mentions that Rogan could return to being independent. I know other analysts who disagree with me, but I think that would mean far less money than he's getting from Spotify.

My bet: Joe Rogan wants to stay with Spotify, and CEO Daniel Ek wants to keep him.

I'm curious what you think!

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Transcript

Welcome to Podcast Industry News. In this episode, Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify? In 2020, when podcasting was at its peak boom, when the hype was at its apex, Spotify signed a three year exclusive deal with Joe Rogan thought to be worth about 200 million. And that deal expires sometime near the end of 2023 or early 2024. And Spotify's CEO, Daniel Ek, is under some pressure. In her piece for The Verge, Ariel Shapiro says: "Rogan is still the best bet the company has ever made.

He remains the top podcaster in the world, and it's not even close." But on the other hand, Daniel Ek is under a lot of pressure to pull back Spotify's investments in podcasting. During Spotify's April earnings call, the CEO admitted he'd overpaid and overspent on podcasts, and during that earnings call, Spotify also reported an net loss of 248 million, and also admitted that the podcasting part of their business wasn't yet profitable. All that being said.

Will Joe Rogan and Spotify renew their deal? Ariel Shapiro comments: "If he walks, or less likely if Spotify chose not to renew, it would be another massive blow to the company's podcasting operation." I think another interesting question is, if Joe Rogan did walk, is there another platform with the desire? and the willingness to pay for it. For example, in my mind, it's unlikely that Apple podcasts would do a deal with Joe Rogan. I don't think they have the temperament to work with Rogan.

Plus, uh, they haven't invested that much in licensing podcasts or creating their own shows in house. So, they don't really have the budget or desire, I think, to work with Joe Rogan. Really, there's only three contenders that might be interested. SiriusXM, Amazon Audible, and Google YouTube. First up, you have SiriusXM. They've made huge investments in personalities in the past. Look at Howard Stern's massive deal. And they just updated that deal.

Um, they signed another five year contract with him in 2020, rumored to be in excess of a hundred million dollars per year. So, would they be able to stretch their budget even further and get Rogan? It might be possible. It, it seems unlikely to me, uh, but. It's a possibility. Uh, then you have Amazon. Uh, they have deep pockets and a growing interest in podcasting. They acquired Wondery not too long ago for a reported 300 million.

So they could be serious contenders if they decide to double down on their audio investments. I, I'm skeptical. A lot of these big companies now seem to have pulled back from their interest in podcasting. There was a lot of hype, especially when Spotify kind of led the charge with their 1 billion investment. And, you know, these companies are memetic. They copy each other. They, they jump on the bandwagon.

But now that Spotify is pulling back, I think we're going to see some of these other big companies pull back. And lastly, you have YouTube. Joe Rogan could sign an exclusive with them. His clips already thrive on there. And While they haven't paid for exclusivity in the past, at least not recently, the potential ad revenue for both parties might be too tempting to ignore. Now, another option is Joe Rogan could go back to being an independent.

And I, I think if he has a decision between staying with Spotify, And going back to being independent, if he wants more money, I honestly feel like he's going to get more money from Spotify than he'd be able to earn as an independent. I know there are people who disagree with me on this. I don't think he was doing, uh, 200 million. in three years when he was an independent. I, I, and I doubt that he would be able to get that much money.

Um, if he went independent again, Spotify paid a premium for that licensing deal. So my guess is that Joe Rogan wants to stay with Spotify and CEO Daniel Ek wants to keep him. So my guess is that they renew the deal in late 2023, early 2024, and he remains on Spotify. Now, within that deal, they could maneuver things a little bit, maybe. They also start posting episodes on YouTube. Maybe they remove the exclusivity and allow the Joe Rogan experience back on Apple Podcasts.

Remember before they did the deal. Joe Rogan wasn't even available on Spotify. Uh, it was only available on Apple Podcasts and the other podcasting apps. So there's some room to play around there and if it means more ad revenue for Spotify and the ability to make their podcasting division profitable, maybe they'll do it. I'm eager to hear your thoughts on all this. Will Rogan stay or go? And what would a new agreement look like? Let me know.

You can leave a comment or leave a response by clicking the link in the description. That's it for this week. Check us out on the web podcast industry.org.

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