Breaking: America and Israel at War with Iran

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All right, we are recording a bonus pod save the world episode because as I'm sure listeners and viewers have seen, the United States and Israel are once again at war with Iran, so we're gonna update you on everything we know as of Saturday afternoon. So this started it's Saturday at one fifteen AM Eastern Time, which is nine AM Tehran time. The US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. The US military is calling this Operation Epic Fury.

Uh it's so totally epic Ben that Trump launched the war from his country club in Florida. Targets so far include the supreme leader of Iran, his compound. The Israelis say the supreme leader, Ayatollah Kabane is dead, and that Netanyahu was shown footage of his body. That's in news reports. Iran says that's false. Uh, we'll find out, I guess. But as we've noted, the Supreme Leader is eighty six, so he was about to regime change himself, but his death would be a

massive seismic event in Iranian history given the role he plays in their system. Um it sounds like he was specifically targeted by the Israelis and not by US forces, and that they also targeted uh the Supreme Leader's son, but he may have survived. Uh President Pazeshkian was reportedly targeted as well. Again, the Iranians say he's alive, but we'll find out.

The the timing of the strikes were reportedly based on intelligence about when senior regime officials would all be meeting. Israel said they had about three gatherings of Iranian officials simultaneously. Israel said 200 jets bomb 500 targets. They did it during the daylight because they thought that would be a surprise. Um Israel said it killed the head of Iran's IRGC, the Minister of Defense, and a bunch of other top military officials, and it seems like

The US is confirming that they agreed that uh about five to ten top Iranian leaders are now dead. The US said they hit nine hundred targets in the first twelve hours. They were focused on military sites, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities.

air defense targets, missiles, drone sites, military airfields. Um Iranian State TV says that one airstrike hit a girls elementary school and killed 85 people. Obviously we can't confirm that, but CENCOM says they're looking into those reports.

So Iran so far has responded by firing missiles and drones at Israel. Um, it sounds like they shot fired off about three hundred of them. Uh, they fired at US bases, they fired at civilian targets as well in UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Um, most of these Iranian missiles and drones seem to have been taken out by air defense systems, but there are some pretty scary videos out there.

on social media of uh either Iranian ballistic missiles or Iranian drones striking targets, including civilian targets like a high rise building in Bahrain or a a hotel in Dubai. Um, on Saturday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that, quote, no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz. So they're saying they're going to close the Strait of Hormuz.

We'll see if Iran can deliver on that promise, but if they are able to, the economic impact would be massive. Every day about twenty million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That's about one fifth of the world's supply. Then there's other shipping.

Um, Trump released a a video statement about all this this morning. Um, in it, Trump kinda played all the hit spend when it comes to US Iran tensions. He talked about the US embassy personnel being held hostage in nineteen seventy nine. Talked about the nineteen eighty three marine barracks bombing. He claimed that Iran was involved in the bombing of the USS Coal in two thousand, which is just not true. Someone should tell Al Qaeda that. I think they take credit.

He also once again claimed that Iran will soon be able to reach the US with its ballistic missiles, which again is a lie. Um here's an excerpt of Trump. I think this is the section of the speech that seemed to most specifically Lay out the goals of this conflict. Let's watch. It has always been the policy of the United States.

in particular, my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. We sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried They wanted to do it, they didn't want to do it, again they wanted to do it, they didn't want to do it, they didn't know what was happening, they just wanted to practice evil. We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be

totally again obliterated. We're going to annihilate their navy. We're going to ensure that the region's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war to the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the Armed Forces, And all of the police. I say tonight.

that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

For many years you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass. Okay, so Ben, let's uh pause there. Just get your reaction, you know, sort of what you've seen so far and in sort of events in the world and also Trump's speech. What you make of it?

Yeah, it's always uh reassuring to have a president launch an illegal and unnecessary war wearing a baseball cap in the middle of the night at Mar-a-Lago. Um but putting that aside for the moment. Uh I think w the headline here is that this is the regime change.

And we've walked up to this precipice with Trump like several times. And each time he took a more limited action, whether it was assassinating Qasim Solomani or whether it was the twelve day war when, you know, he bombed nuclear sites principally. But this is clearly based on rhetoric and targets, like an effort to change the Iranian regime. Now the problem with that though, is that even though that's clear,

nothing is clearer about what the end game is, right? Even if the Supreme Leader is killed. The Iranian regime is a very deep regime. He mentioned the IRGC, the police, and the military. That's millions of people who are under arms in the Iranian regime. And so whether this devolves into civil conflict and chaos. Or whether some IRGC led regime emerges. Um, we have no greater clarity today than we did before this began about how the US sees this thing ending.

And we do see already some of the consequences that could come from this war. We're only one day in, but we've already seen Iran, unlike last time, where they showed some pretty calibrated restraint. Uh it seems like they're firing missiles in all directions, they're trying to exact a cost on the Gulf countries for hosting US bases, or just to kind of create a sense that you know, if we burn, you burn too.

Um, they're launching missiles at at not just bases at Israel as well. Um and and so we're seeing the beginning of what could be a kind of regionalization of this conflict. Um and and so this is a very dangerous moment. Uh and and I have no reassurance from Trump or anybody around him that there's a plan.

for how how to land this plane beyond we're gonna go in there and destroy as much of this regime as we can before it becomes kind of almost politically unsustainable for us to be bombing this country, then we'll stop. And oh, you know, you Iranians rise up. But if those Iranians are massacred again, if it turns into a civil war, there's no plan B.

It's not clear to me that Trump realizes that he started something that he's not able to stop because you know Trump is doing a round of interviews. He's talked to like NBC, Axios, a bunch of other outlets. Um he told Axios he has several off ramps to end the conflict. One of the quotes was

I can go long and take over the whole thing or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians, see you in a few years if you start rebuilding. In any case, it will take them several years to recover from this attack. And it's like I mean, first of all, y no, you can't take over the entire country unless you send in troops to occupy the country and if that's on the table you should probably tell us. Um second, w like we don't know really if Trump

is actually thinking about off ramps, or if Brock Revead in this five minute call was like, Hey, what's your off ramp? And he was like, I got a bunch of them. Um, Trump also told Axios that that uh he asked his team to compile every Iranian linked attack around the world in the last twenty five years.

And clearly that was sort of reflected in the speech he he made. But if you have to do that, it seems like you're really struggling to justify why this has to happen now. And I think all of that just speaks to your point, which is like we have no idea what's gonna happen next. This could end

quickly or this could go on for a long time. And by the way, uh thank you for watching this episode of Pod Save the World. Please subscribe on Wherever We Gate podcasts or on YouTube because we're gonna be covering this story really, really closely and we're not gonna like mindlessly regurgitate

fucking neocon talking points the way a lot of other news outlets are this morning. It's just like it's very hard to watch. Um no one seems to remember the Iraq war or be learning the lessons. So please subscribe to Pod Save the World. Ben I also noticed that that that Reuters had a story that the CIA assassin before the strikes that even if Iran's Supreme Leader were killed in the operation, he would likely just be replaced by hardline figures in the IRGC. So like

again, like with the end goal is not clear. And I noticed this morning, again, like Trump has been lying about Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile programs. Um Gideon Tsar, Iran Israel's foreign minister, said that this military action was urgently needed because quote, delay would have allowed the Iranian regime to reach a level of immunity for its nuclear program as well as to engage in the mass production of long range ballistic missiles. That that's just

It's false. That is absolutely a lie. Like no expert, no one I've seen has suggested that Iran was on the cusp of like revamping its nuclear program.

Yeah, I mean the the war is illegal domestically and internationally. The war is unnecessary as a matter of timing. the threats that they're pointing to. um do nothing to expla I mean the fact that in that, you know, litany that Trump gave He he was talking about roadside bombs in Iraq ten years ago. Is that a reason to go to war now? I mean, obviously those are terrible things that happened, but but it it's an absurd reason to launch a war now. The only new pretext they developed is this.

ICBM threat, which is totally false. Iran has long had an ICBM program. It cannot hit the United States with an ICBM, is nowhere near being able to do that, and doesn't have a nuclear weapon. Uh and so it matters that this is being done under false pretenses with very little public support and no legal basis.

Because we're it's just i it's not a very strong footing to take the country into a war uh of regime change in a country over over ninety million people. Now we know Israel wants this. I mean we BB Netanyao has been pushing for this. For a very long time. Yeah. And he finally got this kind of window with Trump.

Because he sees that Trump is a guy that is willing to ignore Congress and public opinion. Trump's a guy who frankly has done what Bibi Nanya has wanted to do before, whether I was moving the US embassy to Jerusalem or the Twelve Day War. And one thing that I was thinking about, Tommy, is that Well it doesn't matter how many days he bombs Iran. We are in a forever war with Iran. One way to think about this is the 12-day war was not a 12-day war.

Like th this is still part of the war. You know, once you start bombing a country, like this is the same war as the twelve day war that's happening. Just because you periodically stop bombing doesn't mean you're not in a forever war. And so Trump can spin it however he wants to MAGA supporters from you know Tucker Carlson to you know his own vice president, who have the political identities based on opposing this. But the reality is that we are in this.

And the world is gonna see, you know, whatever happens in Iran next, they're gonna see as the responsibility of the United States and Donald Trump personally. Uh and and and as we talked about whether it's civil conflict, refugee flows into other countries, uh m major energy disruptions in the Straits of Formuz, you know, periods of calm followed by periods of dramatic violence. I mean, the this could go all kinds of ways.

But the one thing we know is that Iran is now added to that list of forever wars and it's the biggest country yet that we tried to do this in. And we're doing it with no boots on the ground, and we're doing it in conjunction with Israel, which we've also never done. We've never done a regime change war, like literally with the Israelis. Um, so that is gonna create impressions in the world too. Um and and I just think you know, there's no real discussion of this by Trump.

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And so, you know, like and to that point, I mean that there will absolutely be Iranians, I think, who are happy about the Supreme Leader being dead or the regime toppling. And I'm sure the US and Israel will amplify those voices, especially you know, people in cities, people in Tehran who understandably hate the regime. But we have no idea what the majority of the Iranian people think, especially people in rural areas. We don't know how they'll react. We don't know what's gonna come next.

If the Supreme Leader is in fact dead and there's a massive power vacuum and potential for civil war and other problems. So I mean, it just feels like, yeah, this is all ahead of us. Um Abbas Arrachi, Iran's foreign minister. was on NBC News this morning. Here's like a a little piece of what he had to say, Ben. so called regime. Look, in the past forty seven years, the United States has tried everything from coup, from uh sanctions, uh eight years of war by Saddam Hussein.

İzlediğiniz için teşekkür ederim. And then uh, you know, uh twelve day war uh uh war, uh snap back, you know, in the Security Council and and uh you know terrorist operations. They have tried everything and all of them failed. And I don't know why they don't uh you know, understand uh their failures. So if they want to repeat a failed experience, they won't get any r any better result. If Americans want to talk to us

they know how they can uh contact me. We are certainly interested for de escalation. This is not our war. This is an imposed war against us. This is a war of choice by the United States and they have to pay for that.

Uh and I will they will so pretty defiant there still. We'll see if that tone holds over the next few days. Um, Ben, I've been struck by Iran's decision or the how they've responded. I mean, like th they've been targeting densely populated urban areas filled with civilians. They've been hitting targets in places like Bahrain in Dubai.

Which, you know, in the near term sh seems like the best possible way to get the entire Gulf to rally against you. That said, maybe the calculus is just like, let's up the cost of this war in every way, let's inflame these populations, see if we can turn them against their governments for supporting the US and not

uh in in Israel and not Iran. Um I've also seen reports that Iran has fired at Saudi oil infrastructure. I'm not sure if those are true. It doesn't sound like they've hit anything yet. I think, you know, the big question I have is like how long will these the Iranians be able to retaliate and what will it look like? Fox News says Iran fired about 300 missiles today. They have 2,000 long-range missiles and 2,000 shorter range missiles total.

Um, I'm confident that the US and Israel have taken out a bunch of those and they will methodically take out as many of the the missiles and drones as they can. But that could take a while and you're not guaranteed to get all of them. Um, we also don't really know what the Iranian Navy will be able to do.

Um, and maybe just the mere threat of going after shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will be enough to choke off oil flows. Um, we should watch the Houthis, we should watch Hezbollah, all these proxy groups. Um including, you know, some that might be abroad or in American cities is something to worry about. And then again, as we talked about last week, like Iran has some pretty advanced

cyber capabilities. Um, we don't know if and how they might use those. So a lot of this is just like, I think, wait and see uh for a while here.

Yeah, I mean uh the first point is that you know Arachi Uh i it's not clear, you know. who he even reports to at this point. And and and the negotiation, the Iranians have been bombed now twice in the middle of a nuclear negotiation where they were making concessions. So the idea that that that's a pathway to de escalation seems less likely to me.

You laid out well uh what their options are for response, right? Um uh we d they're not going to do all of them. So we're we're not suggesting that all these things will happen, but they they are all the available paths, you know, ballistic missiles, drones. Uh asymmetric attacks, including terrorist attacks, proxy attacks across the region, cyber attacks, all these things are kind of in the Iranian kit.

Um and the question is essentially do they try to kind of empty the, you know, magazine here, uh, in the early days, or do they kind of periodically do these kind of waves of strikes and and try to make this war hurt hurt for people in Israel and the United States, kind of and the region kind of over time? I agree with you. It's interesting. There's strikes on the Gulf countries and they hit just about everyone except Oman, and that was interesting. Oman was the uh one that was not hit. Um

The some of them were just, you know, strikes at US military facilities. Um, and and that that makes sense and you know, no surprise. Um, these other strikes that include like drone attacks, you know, like as you referenced uh on places like Dubai and Bahrain, um, it it does seem like that the message they're trying to send is. you know, so long as we are under attack, you are not secure. And Yes, they're taking the risk uh that certainly the Gulf governments now will probably feel

Potentially more inclined to allow the US to use bases to attack Iran. Thus far, a lot of the Gulf countries have opted out of that, um, or maybe even participate themselves. But you also make the point that the US doing this in conjunction with Israel.

you know, the the publics in these countries w will surely be mad at Iran for what they're doing. But also I think will blame Israel, who there's no love for in the region, as well as the United States for launching this war. And essentially this sense that that the US and Israel are involved in kind of a a strategy of creating chaos in the region.

You know, that the the the that whether it's the strikes in Lebanon or Syria or Yemen or now Iran, that there's this kind of moving wrecking ball of chaos that is harming people. And we should be you know, that School, I guarantee you, the number one image of the war being consumed around the world.

Well if not number one, it's certainly up there is the image of those yes. Yeah, of those parents screaming'cause they lost their their children in that school. It's a horrifying video. Um and so look I Uh now so in a weird way Iran is kind of reinforcing the chaos strategy. You know, it's like uh uh see, look what's happening now. We have no choice but to kind of pour gasoline on this fire that was set.

And and again it's gonna make them a lot of enemies. Um but but I think that their their their view is like uh we have to set as many fires as we can to make this war feel as uncomfortable for people as we can. But to me the ultimate future of the the war will be determined inside of Iran, inside the politics of Iran. Uh and that we don't know how that's gonna play out at all.

Yeah, it does seem like they've decided they have to up the cost. I mean, uh anyone who was saying that in advance was right. So Ben, I I know like nobody in the United States Cares about hypocrisy or anymore or or you know lies, but we should just point out that Trump explicitly ran against regime change wars.

and wars in the Middle East in particular. Um in twenty eleven he had this to say about a war with Iran and Obama. Let's watch our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate. He's weak and he's ineffective. So the only way he figures that he's going to get re elected

And as sure as you're sitting there is to start a war with Iran. In August of twenty thirteen, Trump tweeted, quote, The President must get congressional approval before attacking Syria, big mistake if he does not. Uh JD Vance wrote an op-ed with a headline in the Wall Street Journal. This was from uh uh January twenty twenty three. Trump's best foreign policy, not starting any wars. He has my support in twenty twenty-four because I know he won't recklessly send Americans to fight overseas.

Uh yeah, Tulsi Gabbard used to sell Ben, No War with Iran t-shirt. Uh and now the just to just to f you know, make sure she was fully humiliated. Um, there's images of her sitting in the situation room watching the war unfold at like the the kids table. hosted by JD Vance while Trump's down at Mar-a-Lago. Uh David Sachs, who is not really relevant to this debate, but is someone we personally find uh loathsome.

uh tweeted in March of last year. What did removing Saddam, Gaddafi Assad get us? Chaos, Civil War, Genocide. The rule for regime change operations in the Middle East is they don't flip a country from bad to good, they flip a country from bad to worse. Pretty good point there from uh David Sachs. I like again, the the war has started. Um, it is what it is, but I do think it is worth.

pointing out how much Trump lied and how we ran against this because maybe parts of MAGA will go along with anything he does and says. I I understand that, but a significant percentage will not. They think this is a bad idea. because they don't want to see American service members killed. They don't want to spend the money. They feel like we are getting led around on our foreign policy by Netanyahu and the Israeli government. And those are things that will be harmful to Trump politically.

Yeah. I mean I I I this is going to be a real cleavage inside of his coalition, right? I mean this is again, it's not a secondary issue for a lot of people. You know, d Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, I mean really the leading lights, uh Such as they are, uh uh of MAGA. Um, and and and and look, uh what's amazing about this is that. One of Trump's most effective arguments was this one against ending forever wars. It it was central.

To his rise, right? H when he dismantled Jeb Bush on the debate stage in twenty fifteen over Iraq in a way that no other Republican would, that's when he moved to the front of the pack. Like he would not be president. without his kind of repeated opposition to this idea of forever wars. In the first term, too, he was much more careful about, you know, the United States getting into conflicts. He is now bombed.

Seven or eight countries, I've lost track of uh in just the first 13 months of his second term. And he's proving to be not. The kind of disruptive corrective To American imperialism and wars of aggression and forever wars. If anything, he's proving to be the uber manifestation of it.

I mean, even these targets that he's going after are kind of the the old in-the-closet, you know, targets of of hard-line Republicans like Lindsey Grant. Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, you know, w we w this is this is all the ancient history in the Republican hawk cupboard i is coming out. And people know that, you know. And and nobody asked for this. And a and and Tommy, I'd say

Just to take another point that doesn't get uh discussed much, the price tag for this thing. I was talking to uh I was well, I was talking to somebody today who was suggesting to me that i if it if it's just even like a few weeks, tens of billions, right? This the this massive amount of military force.

Moving and deploying into the Middle East and then all these munitions being used, maybe the damage that's being done. We saw some damage to our facility in Bahrain. I mean, Do do Americans want us to be spending tens of billions of dollars to aggrandize Donald Trump to go along with BB Netanyahu's?

obsession with, you know, killing the Supreme Leader and moving the Iranian regime. No, they don't. And look, and normally I kind of roll my eyes and when you hear from like military people that we're our stockpiles are running lower, this or that, because like, you know, look, we we have a lot of weapons. But experts will tell you that we really are running seriously low on interceptor missiles for missile defense systems. We're running low on the on the Tomahawk missiles, the T LAMs.

If there is a war with China, God forbid, or if we need to respond to them taking Taiwan, like we will be dangerously low on munitions. The Chinese are happy about this. Trump told us he would end the war in Ukraine in twenty four hours and instead he has launched two regime change wars in the first two months of twenty twenty six. Like I I we have to be able to prosecute that case, Ben. And which I think brings us to the Democratic Party's response so far. So

Like candidly, most responses I've seen have been pretty weak. There's some exceptions that we should talk about. They have been focused on the process and Trump's obligation to come to Congress for a vote before going to war, which of course is true, but it's like not my main issue with.

Going to war with Ron. Um, some Democrats have focused on Trump, you know, not explaining his strategy or making the case. Again, I agree with them, but not the issue. So like what I just want to see from Democrats is Go at the heart of why this is a bad idea. I want them to say there is no urgent threat from Iran's nuclear or ballistic missile program to the United States. Talk about how regime change wars have ended disastrously, both for the US and

for the countries we launched them in, for the rest of the world. Look at the migration crisis in Europe. Like Trump has started something he cannot control. It doesn't matter what he tells you, and he now owns the consequences. And then there's just the fact that like Americans don't want this. There was a UCOV poll very recently, like earlier this month, that asked, do you support or oppose the US using military force to attack Iran? 27% of adults supported it.

Twenty four percent were not sure, forty nine percent were somewhat or strongly opposed. That include fifty four percent of independents who opposed, and nineteen percent of Republicans who opposed the war. So Keep making that case, right? Like Trump ran against this. Democrats have to make that argument. Like there's a war powers vote next week, which

Uh again, good on Rokana and Thomas Massey for pushing this, but it's a little late, guys. You know, this is what you and I were complaining about last week. We're getting yelled at by people on Twitter. But, you know, it's like now is not the time for

you know, long statements that are four paragraphs of throat clearing about how bad Iran is before we get to the the heart of the matter, which is this being a catastrophically bad idea. So I don't know. What what's what's your advice for Democrats who might be figuring out what to say? Well first of all, y you're right,'cause we saw this build up for weeks. Uh good on Rokana for uh tabling this resolution. But to the people who are telling us, oh, we're working it through the process.

Well, i like b you just proved the point that if you really cared about this thing, you know, you would have fought like hell to get a vote on this before Trump actually bombed the country. kind of speaks to how Congress has been absent on this thing that they're gonna have to vote after. I wanna pick out the some of the people who've been good and I'm not gonna be able to, you know, name check everybody, but like Tim Kane uh and and Chris Van Holland in the Senate.

Um long term consistent, both of them about war powers. Kane in particular, yeah. Yeah, Caesar. Criticize Democrats, criticize the Republicans. Yep. And and not just war powers though. He you know, in it you know, a as diverse people as Tim Kane, Chris Van Holland, and AOC. Like had different components where they're like

It's illegal. It's unnecessary. They lied about the reasons to do it. And it ignores the lessons of history of regime change wars in the Middle East. So that's an objection on policy, process. history, all of it, right? That's the kind of case you can make. Jason Crow, I think, made a very powerful case as a veteran where he's like, not only is this not what the American people want. Yeah, this doesn't lower prices.

But time and again, working class people have been screwed because they have to foot the bill for these wars by fighting in them or paying the taxes for them. You know? So there there's defin a kind of populist message. That I think is important. It's not it's not just like politics. It's true, you know, it is fundamentally true. Um, and so I think no defensiveness.

the process is one piece of a much bigger picture here uh as to why this is wrong. And I I think Democrats have to be willing to make that argument. You know, it's interesting to me, Tommy, um that you mentioned that the the polls fluctuate to seventy to eighty percent of Americans uh are opposed to Um, you also saw a public opinion poll for the first time the other day that more Americans sympathize with Palestinians than Israelis, and that is an overwhelming majority among Democrats.

And let's just name the fact that oftentimes the people who seem the most reluctant to be oppose this war are those Democrats who are most supportive of Israel and Congress. And so we should just not be afraid to talk about the fact that this is part of the dynamic.

Because there's a you know, there's a very clear correlation between people who take APAC money and who, you know, who've been supportive of BB and Nenya in the past who are gonna either vote no on that resolution or have been kinda pretty tepid about this. And look, Donald Trump, you know. Look, people, including us, gave him credit for uh you know getting tough with Netanyahu sometimes. But

That's out the window now. He just went to war in part'cause Bibi Nanya wanted him to. So like don't ever tell me again about how Donald Trump uses this leverage. Like the Democratic Party can be the anti war party, can be the party that wants to change a dysfunctional relationship with Israel, change a dysfunctional approach to the Middle East, that learned the lessons of history, and that is

Saying it's time to stop spending money on this stuff and start investing in the things that Americans actually want us to be doing. And I also saw the Israelis are using the occasion of this war to once again cut off aid into Gaza. So there's just like there's just so many bad things happening right now. Positive the world is brought to you by Helix. Look, it's getting a little colder out there. You know, easy to convince yourself to stay inside, maybe watch a movie, maybe never leave your bed.

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Ben, let's talk about the international reaction before we kind of have any concluding thoughts. Um I there there there's a big roundup of people kind of countries and leaders responding. Like the UN Secretary General condemned the attack. the Canadians were like full throated in their support. Mark Carney was full throated in his support.

Uh, so were the Australians. Anthony Albanese was like fully in support of what Trump was doing. Um Prime Minister Keir Starmer over in the UK uh notably said that the UK has refused to participate in the attack, which I think has made a lot of headlines in the UK. But like, I don't know, his t his tone uh he but he condemned the Iranians primarily for responding. Uh and then there was a joint statement with the UK, Germany, and France.

that was mostly about the Iranian response. Uh the Turks called on both sides to de-escalate. China called on Iran's sovereignty to be respected. Russia, you know, denounced the attack in in all the ways you'd expect. It's kind of a jumbled mess, like no one seems sort of willing or able to really stand up to Trump in this moment. But did anything jump out at you? And what in in particular, like what the fuck do you make of the Canadians and the Australians being like so for this?

So the the those are the ones that jumped out to me. Um and and look, you're right. I think privately you get these leaders in a room and they did not want this to happen because they're aware of all the consequences. I mean, if the Europeans who you know I I don't even know I you can read their statements over and over again and have no idea what the fuck their position is. You know the EU or Emmanuel Macron, like it's kind of word salad.

you know, about how bad the Iranians are, but we need to have to have consultations and we're concerned. But you know, th they're the ones by the way who could end up getting refugees, uh like from this if it goes really south. Um, but to me, what stood out the c you know, Mark Carney, um, who we you know praised a lot uh and has gotten a lot of praise.

He he stood up at Davos and said that the international order was broken and it w because it only worked for the powerful countries and therefore the middle powers had to have their own views on And I think what's really disappointing about his statement is I guess he was only talking about trade.

I guess we don't care if we you know, the United States just goes around bombing countries with impunity and Israel goes around much more than the United States even bombing countries with impunity. Uh you know, w uh so

I I look i why not stand up to Trump on this one? Like what what is the purpose? Uh uh of of uh and that he doesn't even have to be full throated in opposition, but that statement, you know, tilted towards support, uh as did Albanese. So I I I don't know, I was a little disappointed in that because It's like everything else. Like if if Trump feels like he can do these things And, you know, the democratic world is gonna kind of fall into line or at least kind of be pretty passive about it.

lowers the bar and I'm doing it. And and that that that's the thing is he could be doing this again and again. Right. In Iran, he could kind of keep bombing again and again. He we could do this in Cuba, you know, Greenland could come back in the picture, Panama, like all these other places. And so you have to be thinking ahead to creating some guardrails around what Trump is doing.

Yeah, and look a w you and I recorded uh an episode yesterday about how uh Afghanistan and Pakistan went are at war. You know, the Pakistanis said we are at open war, full throated war with Afghanistan. Uh there are millions of people who, you know, are getting pushed across either border. Iran shares a big border.

with Afghanistan and Pakistan, if Iran descends into civil war or chaos, uh, as you said earlier, like a lot of people will be harmed, a lot of people will become refugees, will get pushed out of the country. There could be massive refugee flows. This just you know, like this is like We're at like minute one uh of the of the game here and it seems like Trump is already trying to spike the ball with all these phone calls and you know, bragging to press and et cetera. But

Um, I don't know. So look, I I guess we'll wait and see uh if the Supreme Leader is really dead. We'll wait and see um who will take his place, uh if that is the case. Any other things you're watching in the next kind of twelve, twenty-four hours? Well, so if the Supreme Leader's dead, uh, I would definitely how is i how is that announced? Who announces it? Is there a succession plan? I mean I think we'll get a pretty quick

understanding of s the kind of political strategy and dynamic inside the Iranian leadership. So I think that's an important thing to watch. W do Iranians heed Trump's call to kind of rise up and, you know, start to create

like a civil conflict essentially, you know, uh so that there are clashes in the streets just like there are clashes in the air. I love when the American leaders in Netanyahu call on mostly unarmed Iranians to rise up and fight their military. And that that will land well for them, I'm sure. But sorry, continue. No, that uh yeah, it i it when Netanyahu in particular s like let me speak directly to the Iranian people, you know.

Um, the the separate you know, the in the the Kurdish areas and the Baluch areas of Iran, I get, you know, a lot of people may not follow this, but there are kind of long standing separatist movements in those regions. Um, do they start to try to rise up, which could threaten the territorial integrity of Iran? So there's a lot to watch. I think that the I wanna just echo something you said, Tommy. Like

We tend to consume these things in news cycles and even Trump loves that. Twelve day war, right? Like This is going to play out for years, you know, and it's gonna look terrible at some times and may look fine at other times. But

Like the w we we are in we're you could argue that we are in this war now because we had a coup that we sponsored in nineteen fifty three in Iran. That looked great on the first day too, and like look where we are now. And and so we just have to recognize this is gonna unfold

Like over a long period of time. Yeah, and this thing might end up feeling cost free to Americans again because no US service members are hurt or killed. I pray to God that no US service members are hurt or killed or Americans abroad. But there is already an enormous cost to the Iranian people. hundreds are probably dead or wounded already. I mean, this story about, you know, the strike on a a girls school is horrific. Iran is a country that was dealing with an economic crisis.

Uh, Tehran is a place where they're about to run out of water because of climate change and other mismanagement and other reasons. So, like it's a population that has suffered enormously. Um, there was this massive crackdown. uh on protesters, you know, a couple months back, which Trump is sort of cynically making part of his messaging about why he had to bomb them again. Like again, I'm sure there are some Iranians who are in the streets.

Who hate the regime, who will be happy that the Supreme Leader is taken out and like just sort of hope for something better. I just my my fear with all of this having been through. Iraq and Afghanistan and the Arab Spring and just a lot of kind of turmoil is that the guys with the guns

uh tend to end up on top. And in this case, the guys with the guns aren't much better than, you know, the Ayatollah and the Supreme Leader and the religious figures who have been in charge of Iran since, you know, nineteen seventy nine or, you know, in the eighty nine, I think, in terms of um uh Kamine's tenure. Yeah, I mean I I think you probably know Tommy too, people in the Iranian diaspora who are very supportive of this military intervention.

I understand like the anger and trauma that people feel in the diaspora. I just sincerely believe that the United States and Israel bombing Iran to bring about regime change. it you know creates more risks, frankly, than it does opportunities. And principally the reason I believe that is to your point, When I think of the places where there've been, you know, regime change, let's expand it beyond even uh US wars to Arab Spring, right? Um Afghanistan, Iraq.

Egypt. Libya, uh Yemen, uh i I I'm leaving some out, but it in every case. Sudan, um where the people did rise up. In every case, you either had like a civil war that was hugely destabilizing and disruptive and and and a loss of life. Or you add the guys with guns come back and be even more repressive, right? Like the Egyptian government that emerged was more repressive even than Mubarak, right? Um, and so

That's that's why we sincerely uh like uh just don't think this is the right way. It's not out of any sub, you know No love for this regime. It's been horrible for the Iranian people. Um but I think we just have to learn from history. And t I just want to come back to what I you mentioned it, Tommy. So I'm just I don't know if you have one final thought on this.

I the media coverage is i some of it's very good, but some of it is just what are we doing here, people? Like I know. Like the you had people credibly reper referring to the Israeli statement that this was like a preemptive strike. Like pre preemptive I know. What? What are we preparing? That's a rock war language. It's almost like they were trolling the US media and just being a stenographer for this fucking bullshit.

Especially when we told we were told the uh like the nuclear infrastructure was quote unquote totally and completely obliterated in June of last year. The President of the United States said that. It's like, come on, guys, just like be a little more credulous if anything this guy says or the Netanyahu says. Yeah. All right. Well look, thank you guys for watching uh or listening to this. Please subscribe to Pod Save the World wherever you get your podcasts or here on YouTube.

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