Trump Loses the Gerrymander War

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Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Look at us. We're here in DC. Backwards. Back where it all started. Beautiful city. They haven't started uh work on the arch yet. No did you check out the barroom? I was just when we were landing I was excited to see that the monument was still standing.'Cause I wasn't I didn't know. That's good. Yeah, the uh the m the Lincoln Memorial painted uh MAGA red. Yeah, right. So yeah, everything looks normal so far.

Um all right, on today's show, we're gonna talk about the latest developments in our new forever war uh and why it could take six more months to open the Strait of Hormuz, even after the war ends. We'll also cover Democrats' big win in Virginia in the state of the redistricting wars, which Republicans are starting to regret. Uh we'll check in on our boy Cash Patel, who can't quite shake the J. Edgar Boozer allegations. Just a top notch, top ten all time pots in market title.

I was saying who I don't know who came up with it. They're all on the line, so someone knows, but we're we're not with them. Love it saying it was him. It's definitely not love it. And um and why the biggest national security threat that we face Maybe sugar daddies. Then our friend Mark Libovich of the Atlantic joins us here in studio to talk about the California governor's race in this town Super Bowl, the White House Correspondence Dinner. This weekend, why we're here, we couldn't stay away.

Um, and with Trump in attendance for the first time as president and the first time since twenty eleven. twenty eleven. We're not gonna get into that again. If you if you're listening to this show and you don't know the story of twenty eleven, then you have not paid attention. Crooked con's coming back, Dan, right here in this city. What should I say? Washington D C November fifth through seventh, it's gonna be right after the midterms. Is it being held in the barroom? Uh

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It's pretty great. It's a pretty exciting product, Ann. I'm really I'm really excited you're doing this. You've been we've been talking about this for a while, so I'm glad you're uh you got it off the ground. Messageboxpro dot com. Yep. You can also go to the notorious yesweet crooked dot com slash yesweet dan. That's another option. But that's also to donate to your future races. No, no, no.

Uh all right, let's get to the news and uh what seems to be a stalemate in a war that's been going on for seven weeks and counting. Quick reminder, it's now been forty three days since Trump first declared victory in Iran. Now we are on week seven and counting. Uh so we're recording this mid-afternoon East Coast time on Thursday, a little earlier than usual, and Trump is about to do an event in the Oval Office where he may take questions.

Our producers are monitoring the situation. Reed, you're just gonna give us a wave. Throw his sweet green bowl at us. It's got to be big news though. Big news. Um all right, but for now, Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday, uh, didn't put a new deadline on it, and it's unclear if we still have a ceasefire because then Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

And the US has seized a couple tankers, including on Thursday, a tanker of Iranian oil, and there's still no word on whether there will be another round of negotiations. JD Vance just sitting at the airport waiting to get the call so he can jump on a plane. Um Trump is still posting through it, uh th this is all just today, claiming that, quote, we have total control of the strait, which we obviously don't, as evidenced in part uh by his next post.

that he's ordering the Navy to quote, shoot and kill any boat laying mines there, um, which he claims is already happening, but wants it to continue at a quote, tripled up level. That's technical speak. Three X. Yeah, t tripled up level. Uh he also shared two posts from uh warmonger Mark Tyson. Yeah, my uh my predecessor at the White House uh that suggested um he should kill the Iranians who don't want a deal.

So he said there's a couple factions. There's the want a deal faction and the don't want a deal faction, and and and and Tyson said he should kill all the Iranians who don't want a deal. But also the Trump doesn't need a deal. So there's a few problems there. Um meanwhile this is all after the Pentagon reportedly told Congress in a classified briefing, this is from the Washington Post, that it could take six months. to clear the strait from the date the war ends.

So if the war ends tomorrow, we're looking at six months until the strait is open again and global energy supplies go back to normal and the price of gas comes down and oil and all the other and the supply shock and all the other uh problems that have befallen the global economy because of this.

Uh looks like the administration is trying to spin the the ceasefire extension as a temporary act of mercy. Uh they're saying uh on background three to five days to quote, allow the Iranians to get their shit together. This is what they told Axios. Um and Trump keeps threatening that huge strikes will resume. How eager do you think uh he actually is to restart this war? Well he's given I think it is now five deadlines. With it.

And in every single one of them he's extended the deadline without getting a single thing he wanted. So I'm getting the sense that he does not want to restart this war, but he he really wants the strait to be open and the war to be over and it to be seen as an unalloyed American victory. But it all of this is an impossible One tough circle to the right.

Yes, it is an impossible circle to square. So we are stuck in this place. And every day that we that we're still in the still mate,'cause really still mate is not a term you want to used with a uh war in the Middle East. No. Uh been there before. i every day that the stalemate continues is makes it worse for the US and the global economy. The the oil shock gets worse. The shortage gets worse. We I think

You know, when you if you read what people, like sort of experts in the oil industry, say is that the markets, the political conversation is dramatically underestimating how bad this is and what the what the medium-term consequences are. Like Europe is headed towards a potential jet fuel shortage. Yeah. With Ganza canceled like twenty thousand short flights already. It's really bad.

Yeah. It's very, very bad with very, very real implications for For people's daily lives, not just gas prices, but every single part of their life, the strength of the economy, overall inflation, the cost of food, and from the as we put on here, from the day you end the war, you have six months to you can get to something hopefully resembling normalcy and begin to unwind all of this. And we have no idea when that day z that day one will be.

And per usual, Trump is making his problems worse because he has made it clear to the Iranians and the world that he's horny for a deal. Um which the Iranians know. which is why they're gonna make it

harder for him to get a good deal that he can feel confident about, um which he also needs to avoid seeming weak because he can't seem weak. So it's just and you can tell that like the Iranians are sort of showing a little more confidence and the way they're posting and talking about this and also their like the it's clear like the IRGC is in charge and the hardliners and there's a long New York Times piece today about the new Ayatollah and he is apparently still

um, very injured and very ill, but like it's like th th the way they described how Iran's being governed right now is that like it's a board of directors and and the new Ayatollah is the chairman of the board, but all the generals and all the IRGC people have almost just as much of a say or certainly more of a say than they did when his father was in charge. Um so that's probably not good for world peace or getting a deal.

Yeah, it's just there there are such different incentive structures here. All the IRGC cares about is staying in. And they have they can they can wait it out. Because they are a repressive, awful regime, they don't care how much pain they inflict on their own people. Um and it's not like they have elections coming up. There is th there's no one sitting at RGC headquarters worrying about the generic ballot right.

Right. And they know that Donald Trump just wants out, both because he's worried about the politics and because he has no attention span. And it's just not clear what he could do to change the calculus here because all he can do is bomb more things. What we all have to hope is that they end up um doing a deal that's probably better for the Iranians than we would have hoped.

and Trump pretends that it's some great deal and tries to take credit for it, but at least it ends the war. Like that that that to me is now the best possible outcome because there is no outcome where we get a great deal. anyone dumb enough to st to start this war is too dumb to get out of it.

Yeah. Yeah. That's about where we are right now. Um you see that Pete Heggseth fired the Secretary of the Navy, uh, which is an interesting thing to do here in the middle of the biggest naval blockade uh operation in decades. Uh, another heroic background quote to Axios, quote, He didn't understand he wasn't the boss. His job is to follow orders given, not follow the orders he thinks should be given. The only wars that Pete Hexeth can win are bureaucratic ones. Yes.

Um doesn't seem great that they're losing the Secretary of the Navy. It seems like this guy went too because he was having trouble with Hegeth and fighting with Hegzeth, and part of it was based on, you know, Hegeth wants to like eliminate the woke army, the DEI agenda. And so he was trying to uh make sure he looked at every application for a possible job and make sh and scrubbed social media to make sure there were no signs of woke or DEI anywhere in the resume or in the social media.

Um so it doesn't seem like that's a that's a good thing. Since there's a lot of people now, I feel like at upper levels of the Pentagon who have been let go again in the middle of a war. Yeah, we keep getting rid of people who know what they're doing, replacing them with people who don't.

Senate Democrats brought up a war powers vote on Wednesday. Republicans voted it down now for the fifth time this year. Um what else can or should Democrats be doing? It seems like they're just gonna keep bringing these votes up, and it seems like each time

they are getting like more Republicans, um, who are at least uh considering voting uh for the war powers resolution. And the and the time limits up in terms of even if you don't have even if you don't think that the war powers resolution does anything Um the the the president can only be at war for a certain number of days and that's the the time limit's coming up there and so they're now they're trying to figure out a way to get around that. Yeah. I'm always torn on the war powers resolution.

thing as a tactic here because one thing we've known for some of the polling we've seen is that people are very, very against this war. They they don't understand why we're in it. They hate the costs of it. They think it's stupid. The least effective argument is that is the process one. Um, but morally, constitutionally, from a governance perspective, the process one is very important. Like that is a case that should be made. And we're and even if we were to pass it.

Trump, we're not gonna pass with a Vita Proof majority. Right. Right. So it sort of is what it is. And so we have to think about using these votes to put as many Republicans on the record as for Trump's illegal war as possible.

I I I have noticed that all the talk about the supplemental war funding um has kind of died down. Remember it was going to be two hundred billion dollars and then someone said maybe it's closer to one hundred billion that the White House is gonna ask for. But um I don't see that uh that legislation getting fast tracked any time soon, do you? Well, I I just don't know what the immediate urgency is. Like what will push this is

It's very, very when the Pentagon wants something, the Pentagon is very, very good at ensuring that everyone knows they want it. And so if they actually like Trump and Russ Vogt have made a mockery of all sort of budgeting laws. So they could be robbing from all sorts of places to avoid this, but at some point they're gonna need that money and they're gonna have to go to Congress. for it, and then that becomes the most important, most politically salient vote people will take on this war.

I would bet their calculation is He's trying to get a deal, he's trying to get us out of this. Let's just try to wait to ask for the funding until the war's over and then we can say it has nothing to do with the war, the war's over. This is just to refill our munitions, which are running low, and now there's reporting from Alex Ward in the Wall Street Journal that uh munitions are so low that if we ever had to go to war with, say, China, uh that we wouldn't be able to have enough munitions.

Yeah, I mean that you're it the risk to that strategy is the later you wait, the closer you put it to the Right. We're in late April now. Congress is gonna take like the last thing the worst possible scenario for Republicans is they have to deal with this in September, right before the election. Yeah. As gas prices are like over five dollars a gallon at that point.

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All right, let's talk about the great news of the week. Democrats won the Virginia referendum to redraw the state's congressional maps, which will likely net Dems another four seats in the Commonwealth. and hold ten of the eleven congressional seats there. It is now gonna be a ten-one split in Virginia, Democrats and Republicans. Uh Trump said the election was rigged, obviously, uh called on the courts to fix this travesty of justice. That was his quote.

Uh, and of course and indeed a Republican circuit judge in Virginia blocked the results on Wednesday, which was expected. This judge has had blocked the referendum earlier. Um, and Attorney General Jay Jones vowed to appeal. Now Virginia's Supreme Court will decide. Um Republicans and right wing media join Trump in uh bitching about the results. Um and Democrats aren't feeling too guilty. Uh here's Jesse Waters, Jessica Tarlov, and AOC.

You guys have been gerrymandering for quite some time. You're very good at it. Trump tried his hand at it. Did it in Texas, got some good results, and then you guys have just been running the table. Can you slow down? No. All gas. No break. Yeah. What do you make a Republican say? You guys getting 哇哇哇 First of all, what do you think about the uh Republican complaining? Uh if you could expand on Wham Wham Wham.

Oh because I have s I saw it from like a lot of a lot of Republican strategists who I think know better. Many of them live in Virginia, as many Republican strategists and Democratic strategists do in Northern Virginia. Um But they are very upset and when you say, Well, Texas started it, they're like, Well no Democrats started it first before Texas and other cycles and in New York they did it in twenty twenty and th th all this fucking Yeah. What is it that Republicans love to say?

Fuck around and find out.'Cause that's exactly what happened here. But That's what Hakeem Jeffrey said. Yeah. And he actually said five. Did he? Yeah. Very often. Yeah. There's uh Honestly good for it. We should Hakeem Jeffrey. Thank you. Gets a lot of credit, yeah. He absolutely Republicans started this reducting war. He Democrats could have crawled into the feet up position. Gavin Newsom stepped up. Did Hakeem Jeffries step up?

And he did work. He like went to these states, went to these legislatures, pushed people like it was a lot of behind the scenes work, but he did work. The Virginia would not have happened without Hakeem Jeffries, for sure. Um, so he gets a ton of credit here. The but let's let's just be clear about In 2021, there was a vote to ban Jerrymandra. Every single Democrat voted for it. Every single Republican voted against it

One party supports a national ban on Germany'cause the only way to do this is a national ban. One party supports it's the Democrats, one party opposes it's the Republicans. What they don't like here is they started a dumb fight and they lost. Yeah, I just think that's a good thing. We should be consistent in the positions we hold on reform that sort of, you know, reforms corruption and rigged system and gives people more of a voice and like

Yeah, we're for ending gerrymandering everywhere. And if the Republicans don't like the bill uh from twenty twenty one that would end partisan gerrymandering for whatever reason'cause some of them have some problems with the way it's then tell us what you want to do. Give it give us a give us a bill that would and then maybe we can negotiate on it. But I I feel this

Same thing with uh money in politics and Citizens United and oh Democrats are spending money too. No, we wanna overturn Citizens United. We wanna get rid of money in politics. Do you also? Then let's do it. Like

I think that there should be term limits and maybe age limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices. Great, let's do it all I think the f I think we should get rid of the filibuster. And everyone's like, Oh well now the Republicans, would you be pissed if if the filibuster wasn't there? Yeah, th I would be annoyed that they could they maybe it could pass a few more things, but like I believe the filibuster is bad and so I believe that it is bad no matter what.

Like I just think that that th maybe Republicans could be consistent for once on the f reforms they support and when they support them.

Yeah, there I mean there's there's two things there. One there's consistent the other one is whether Democrats should be required to unilaterally disarm when sort when things remain legal. If we're trying to change legal. Of course not. That is an absurd fucking position. I do think in a different era, and maybe even the first Trump era, Democrats would not have responded as aggressively

Because we do believe gerrymandering is wrong. We would have thought that not everyone I don't think you and I would have thought that, but I think a lot of many in the party would have thought that it is dirty pool. Two wrongs don't make a right. We should not do it.

And the fact that we did certain is that Democrats have learned a lesson, finally, of the Trump era, which is you if you are going to take on fascism, you have to be willing to fight fire with fire. You have to use everything Democrats are doing is legal. It is the ma it is a maximum use of allowable political power. The way to fix unfair rules is to fix the rules, not just sit there and let your ass get beat.

So uh last year Abigail Spanberger um uh in Virginia beat her opponent by fifteen points. The referendum passed by three. It's a twelve-point swing. Um why do you think it was so close? A couple of reasons here. One Un so the most obvious comparison point is the California um measure that passed in November. That passed by about thirty points. This is three points. California is uh more democratic than Virginia, but it's not the it's not ten times more democratic than

Right. And if it passed by thirty points, isn't it like a isn't it like a D plus twenty state usually? Yeah. And uh Kamala Harris won Virginia by five point eight points. Um But some reasons why it was closer. Um one, this was a very republic high v Republican turnout was quite good. It was actually as um big twenty twenty one levels. Um

When we lost, yeah, when uh Glen Yakin was elected. The uh Republicans did mount a very good campaign here. They actually used Barack Obama in their ads. Uh both sides used Obama in their ads. Uh the no side used Obama f footage of Obama talking about why germandoring was bad in their ads and then the yes side used more recent footage of Obama saying pass this amendment. Um It's smarter than no side.

Yeah. And uh and they spent real money, um less money than the yes side. The the other issue here that made it closer was independence. So um independence in the last Washington Post poll that was a couple of weeks before the election had independence at plus ten on the no side. Which is a huge swing from uh Spamberger, who won them by more than 20 points in uh 2025. And that kind of makes sense because if you're an independent who is

Upset with Trump, maybe you voted for Junkin in 2021, maybe you voted for Spember in 2025, probably Trump in 24. And you're mad at Trump. You see this a process oriented anti pro-gerrymandering amendment is something that you can Still vote against.

Yeah, and I don't I don't know how the vote broke down in any of the individual districts, but I also think it is very understandable if you're an independent or if you're Republican and you're deciding whether to come out and vote or not or vote like If you're in a district that's gonna get gerrymandered and so you no longer really have a have a say and you're a member of Congress or you're not gonna ever get a Republican, um, I can see why you vote against it. Yeah.

It's This is why gerrymandering in general is bad and they shouldn't have sent us down this. And the interesting interesting the one group that blew the doors off and it's probably why Democrats won was Asian American voters. Yeah. And black Americans too. I th I saw I saw both Asian and the Asian vote and the black vote were Um, because again, especially black voters like know what it is to be gerrymandered. Um

Let's talk about what the uh redistricting war Trump started with Texas hethrought. Uh when you add up all the states now that have redrawn their maps, Democrats, are uh as of this moment plus one in the overall count. Uh the only state left is Florida, where the legislature has a special session scheduled for next week. Uh but it's actually unclear if DeSantis changing the maps will net Republicans any additional seats.

Um and some in the party are already feeling what Axias described as quote, buyers were morse. Yeah, bet? Uh it's a bummer, huh? Um when asked if the redistricting effort was worth it. The chair of the NRCC, whose job it is to keep Republicans House majority, uh told Axios quote, It's not for me to say, because really it wasn't my decision.

Uh and California independent Kevin Kylie, uh who was a Republican and now caucuses with the Republican still, uh told Axios, quote, I wish none of this had happened. Yeah, exactly. Um did we win redistricting? Yes. Yeah, I mean yes yes we won redistricting. Um you know when Florida's done it could come out that we are A seat or two behind. Um Florida's interesting because DeSantis could redraw the maps. One, just worth noting that partisan gerrymandering in Florida is illegal.

According to the constitution. So he's gonna need to be able to do that. That seems like a hard one. It is a hurdle. The Flor I would say the legal reasoning of the Florida Supreme Court is malleable. A bunch of Eileen cannons on that thing. And so there's there's some thought that they're going to find a way to twist this, twist the illegal pretzel enough to get it done. But even if you draw

Right. So DeSantis is under pressure to to to do what Newsome did. Because DeSantis wants to run for president in twenty twenty eight, potentially. This is his chance to like re to show himself to be uh you know, an important Republican player. But if he drew experts who look at this think that anything more than adding two Republican seats puts them at real risk of what you call a dummy mander, which is where you draw the districts in a way that in a bad year you lose a bunch of seats. Um

So even I think even if DeSantis were to do it, he's gonna get two seats at max. So you end we end up minus one for the whole thing. And it would I think in the sense that we won, I'm not sure anyone's gonna do this again.

in mid year, right? Obviously we're gonna have to do this again after the th the twenty thirty census across in every in every state, but I think Democrats sent a m a you know, a message to Republicans that if you try to do this, we will do it too and you're not gonna get that much and it's not gonna be worth the juice won't be worth the squeeze.

Saw a uh a longtime Florida Republican consultant uh talking to Politico. He ran the numbers and that person ran the numbers and concluded the new map could net Republicans zero seats for the reasons uh you talked about. So'cause right now they hold a twenty to eight edge.

And um because basically there's nowhere left to cram Democrats without exposing safe Republicans to incumbents. So it is it's gonna be really hard even if the Supreme Court doesn't. If the even if the Supreme Court allows it. The other thing that we'd been waiting for is this Supreme Court case. um uh that could upend the map um in the voting rights act and basically say that all majority and minority districts uh can be redrawn, um which would cost Democrats a bunch of seat. But I I do think

Um as of now, it's like too late. It's too late for it to matter in twenty twenty six, partly apparently because um two southern states. Which is where it would heavily affect m it was affect Southern states more than anyone. Two Southern states have already held primaries and candidate filing deadlines have passed in every state but Florida. So even if the Supreme Court says it matters for the selection, like it they just can't

placements. And it's like for the states that already held primaries, you can't do anything. I guess you can I guess the legislature could go try to change a filing deadline by passing legislation.

They'd have to pass new laws to um basically do emergency elections to do it. So you have new filing deadlines, people would have to get signatures for those petitions, then you'd have to have a primary, then you'd have to have a j then then the general election November seems and you'd have to draw the districts at some point in there too. So seems fine for twenty twenty six. It is a problem because and it's it seems like the decision will be bad. Um but a problem for another day.

Um Enjoy that majority where we have it.

For the next two years. Uh the redistricting fiasco only adds to the Republicans' midterm woes. Trump and the party continue to hit new lows in polling. Both the AP and ARG had Trump's approval at thirty three percent and thirty two percent respectively, so that's fun. Uh, as Sarah Longwell says, that's the that's the bush line right there. Uh Cook Political Report released a new poll on Thursday finding that in s just in swing districts, that Trump won in 2024 by an average of two points.

Democrats now hold a six point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. So that's pretty big. And in a new Fox poll, voters gave Democrats the edge of Republicans on inflation in the economy for the first time since twenty ten. I think that's a six point. spread in the m in the generic ballot as well. Uh how much hopium are you huffing these days? I don't know. I'm not really a hopium huffer per se.

Look, I think that the political environment looks about as good as we ever possibly could have hoped for Democrats right now. And the poll that everyone should really be paying attention to is the Cook political report poll of thirty six The thirty six districts that will decide the House, all of the toss up lean Republican, lean Democratic districts and And that was the one that was the that I think. Six point thirty six stuff. In in that one, um Uh

Democrats have big double digit advantages on lowering prices and on the economy, which is something that is that has changed. Trump's unpopular, Republican base is divided, like

We have the opportunity before us as we get we'll get to this conversation. There are some hurdles to maximizing that opportunity, but it like this has the potential to be a nineteen ninety four, two thousand and six, twenty eighteen style election for Democrats where is a massive rebuke to the president, incumbent president and the party in his party.

And we've been talking about the House, but um headline of Nate Cohn's newsletter earlier this week was uh why a democratic senate, once unthinkable, is now a real possibility. Uh what did you make of Nate's reasoning? Because he's not someone who just No he is not a hopium high. Flies off the handle and just starts making predictions.

You know, we've made this case, uh I made this case on Polar Coaster multiple times. Um and we've talked about a little bit here, but it like once again, as we've said, It is a tall order to get the Senate because you have to win two of four states that Trump won by double digits. In addition to winning, holding all of our ones we have and winning Minnesota. And but the advantages we have are we have

Good candidates, very, very good candidates in three of those four. The fourth state is Iowa, which hasn't hasn't had its primary yet. So you have Mary Paltola in Alaska, top-notch candidate, uh Sherrod Brown in Ohio, top-notch candidate, James Salarico in Texas, top-notch candidate. And there's some view. Cooper, North Carolina. Cooper in the Recouper in North Carolina. Um and then Maine.

Maybe it's not a race anyone's re talking about on this podcast, so you know it's that's it's it's an under the radar race. Um And uh the Democrats are overperforming in special elections by a margin that would deliver it puts the all of those states in

Right. We gotta win those we need plus ten, plus eleven environment to win those states. And we're seeing that's the sort of environment we're in right now. And then you can add some additional points to that'cause you have candidates who are gonna perform better than a generic Democrat.

Yeah, the the paragraph in Nate's piece that really stuck out to me was um I was talking about Sherrod and and and Mary Paltola. It says In Ohio, Mr. Brown lost by three point six points in twenty twenty four. Uh Ms. Paltola lost by around two points in Alaska. Today the Democrats are faring about eight points better on the generic congressional ballot than they did in the twenty twenty four combined U.S. congressional popular vote.

or put another way, Mr. Brown and Ms. Peltola probably would have won re election in twenty twenty four if those contests had been held in this political environment. So that's pretty big. Uh echelon did a set of polls in the Senate states. Echelon Really good pollster run by Republicans, Patrick Ruffini and uh uh Kristen Sultis Anderson. Um they have

Ossof up fifty-one forty four in Georgia. Um in Maine, they have Platiner up on Collins fifty-one forty five. They have Mills up by a narrower forty eight forty six. Uh that's that main center risk? Yeah, he's running. I'm not gonna I'm just holding my tongue on that. Uh in Iowa, they have Zach Walls a two point lead.

and uh Josh Turrick a one point lead. So they do have a s tiny lead inside the margin error in Iowa. And then the only tough one there is in Ohio they have um Sherrod down fifty one forty five. And there's been a few Ohio polls that have been kinda uh troubling lately, but we'll see.

Um so speaking of Patrick Ruffini, um, uh who, you know, literally wrote the book on the uh so called realignment that delivered Trump to the White House in twenty four, uh, he tweeted a few days before the Virginia election that if the referendum passed by around a five point margin, of course it passed by three. Um, it meant Republicans, quote, have some fight in them and can, quote, hold down DEM seat gains in the House and keep the Senate Uh what did you make of his case?

It's not crazy. So like his origin the original point here is Democrats tout every time we overperform and so he's gonna go around and tout the one time we underperform. So, you know, sporting I guess. Um The what I think is and I want to stipulate that a process oriented ballot measure is very different than a candidate race where the candidate it's it's hard to hold the no on redistricting measure accountable for why you're angry at Trump. Yeah. And just to your point about ballot measures.

Let us not forget all the abortion ballot measures in deep red states that made us excited that maybe we were gonna win those. Or minimum wage value. They do not. Exactly. Twenty-five point congressional performance in Georgia from three weeks ago, or whatever it was, is a is a better indicator than this.

Also, it is certainly not evidence of an improving re political environment. Trump's actually doing worse than he was before. The generic ballot is getting bigger, not smaller. And so I think it's a bit of a vacuum. What I think is true is that What Republicans effectively did here is they nationalized that collection. And when you nationalize an election, that gives them the chance to turn out more of their voters. Because we are winning both through massive democratic turnout.

Persuasion and diminish Republican turnout. They're not gonna turn they're not gonna drive down our turnout. They're probably not gonna do a lot of persuasion, but they the one thing they can do is drive their turnout up. And that is a difference between us winning a bunch of Trump plus 12 seats and us not winning Trump plus 12.

Yeah, and the other the the other point I found compelling about Patrick's argument is he he basically said in all all these special elections that we've had so far, um, Republicans really haven't been able to um sort of up the stake. and make voters feel that like there's a there's a lot at stake in this election. And in Virginia they were able to do that because they made it seem like

you know, you could lose your your voice and and your district forever. And so once you get closer to the actual midterms and everything's nationalized as you said and the stakes are higher and they're spending you know, all the money they have, which we're about to talk about, um, then you could get a closer environment than you've had in some of these special elections, which I do think is

Republicans are going to get their shit together in some way, shape, or form. That is going to happen. It always does. The I don't they're not gonna get Trump level turnout. They're not gonna get the turnout they want, but they're gonna get better turnout than they've been getting in the some of these special elections and that is going to hold the that is not enough to save the house.

It may be enough to save the Senate, but it's not enough to save the House. But it could hold down the market. It's the difference between Democrats picking up 15 seats and 25 seats.

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The New York Times reported this week that Republican Party political committees and allied groups currently have a massive$600 million financial advantage over the Democrats and their political committees and allied groups. Um the DNC's total cash is actually negative four point five million, uh which seems less than ideal. Uh what do you make of the overall disparity there? I would say one of the funniest things I've read in a long time is there was a uh

A political reporter was passing along, it was Natasha Koreki, I think, was passing along some of the spin from Democrats. And one of the spin from some of the Democrats about this was, Well, we had all this money in twenty twenty four and we lost anyway. So let's try running it back with no money. That's right. In twenty twenty four, we had a candidate and we lost. Yeah. Let's try no candidate. That's good thinking. Um Here's what I'd say.

It is bad when the DNC has negative money. Okay, that is bad. It is not as consequential as I think people on the internet think. The DNC is not intimately involved in funding house races or Senate races. That is the DCC and the D SCC. They have less money than the Republican counterparts, but that's a much narrower gap. And then where Republicans are truly crushing us is in super PAC. And non profit money.

And that it's and that's not even counting all of the hundreds of million dollars in the AI and crypto super packs, which are mostly going to help Republicans. But where Democrats are crushing us, our candidates are raising a lot more money than their candidates. And here's why that matters. Every dollar in political fundraising is not equal. By law. Television stations have to sell TV ads to campaigns run by candidates, the actual candidates, at what is called the lowest unit rate.

They have to do that. It's what what the going rate is, is what they charge a candidate. They can they gouge the living shit out of super PACs. So super PACs in the last 60 days before an election are paying two, three, four times the amount of the So let's take Uh, North Carolina, right? Where Cooper's raised a gazillion dollars. Let's say the Republicans plus Michael Watley is the Republican nominee, have eighty million dollars.

That's equivalent to twenty million to you know twenty or twenty or thirty million dollars of Ray Cooper's money. And so like it it is bad we should have more money. It is bad that we're being outraged like this, but give money to campaigns because those dollars go. So uh

And we'll tell you the best place to give your m to to send your money. Don't want to be wasting any of it. Um Seems like Trump is responding to the uh grim political outlook with his tried and true method of uh firing people. So he's reportedly considering forcing out more members of his cabinet. Uh Lori Chavez de Ramer, the Labor Secretary, resigned this week in scandal uh following Christy Gnome and Pam Bondi. There's some speculation that Howard and uh I I almost just said nutlick.

You can say that. Yeah, but I just it's just it's natural. Was it gonna sue you? No, I guess maybe. Um that maybe Nutlick could be next. Um or po or possibly Cash Patel, uh who's again not having the easiest time reporting. Tulsie Gabbard too could be. Oh, I saw Telsie Guybert, yeah. Cash is having trouble rebutting the Atlantic story that did lead to his new nickname. J. Edgar Boozer.

Uh here's Patel and his boss, acting A. G. Todd Blanche, responding to questions about the Atlantic story at a D. O. J. press conference on Tuesday. Let's play the clip. Can you say definitively that you have not been intoxicated or absent during your tenure as FBI director?

I can say unequivocally that I never listen to the fake news mafia. I'm like an everyday American who loves his country, loves the sport of hockey, and champions my friends when they raise a gold medal and invite me in to celebrate. I've never been intoxicated on the job. Like obviously you've read the Atlantic article and that's now a subject of a defamation lawsuit probably.

Absolutely did not read that article. You're being extraordinarily rude. And I know maybe that's part of your profession, but please just stop. Your lawsuit contends that you were not able to log into the system. What did you think after you were unable to log into the system? Let's have a survey. How many of you people believe that's true? It was never said, it never happened. I was never locked out of my systems. Anyone who says it. It says the opposite.

At the end. Um meanwhile, the Times reported on Tuesday that the FBI began investigating one of uh the New York Times reporters, Elizabeth Williamson, after she broke the story last month that Patel has had has assigned FBI SWAT teams to protect his girlfriend.

and drive her to her concerts because she has a country music sensation, um, and even a hair appointment. Patel is now denying that the FBI investigated, even though the Bureau basically confirmed to the Times that they had looked into Williamson's quote methods. Um How hard is Cash Patel crushing it right now? What did you think of that price cover? Oh man. It's... uncomfortable in every situation. Yeah.

And just trying too hard at all times. I d just an average everyday American who loves hockey. The lawsuit is helpful if you read the lawsuit because it does detail every allegation that is bad in the Atlantic piece in one helpful page. Just just puts them all down one through three. Yeah. No, it bas b basically gave you the summary of it right in the lawsuit. Um and and did essentially admit that the story about not being able to log into his

His email or his system was true. Um do you think do you think Trump gets rid of cash? I don't know. Like even more than Bondi and Christy Nome, I think that this would be seen as an em admission of failure on Trump's part. Who's the other yeah, it just I don't I mean

I mean, first of all, Trump's uh uh uh you know, had never had a drink. He doesn't drink, and so I think he doesn't like the idea that someone is like running around drunk in the FBI. And um not because he like I think it this is all through the prism of like it makes Trump look bad. Right. This is not about he doesn't care about like the safety and security of the country. And also what Trump wants is

revenge on his enemies. And I mean look, that that press conference was about uh indictments they brought against the Southern Poverty Law Center, um, for it seems like crazy charges, but It's too crazy. Yeah. Um but uh so I think Trump's annoyed with that. So we'll see. I I don't know. I would have said uh I said this on Tuesday show, but I I I would have said no, he'll keep him

If it was before Bondy and Gnome, but now that he's got those two out, I feel like he's got a taste of like, oh, I fire someone, it's a a story for a day and then we move on. So So would you I know we don't predict on this show, but if if you were on some sort of prediction market platform. Would you put any of your hard earned coin on the idea that Cash Patel will not be in this role on Thanksgiving? Yes. You think he'll be gone by Thanksgiving? Yeah.

Yeah, because it he definitely post midterm. I mean, but I I feel like I'm not sure. Yes would be If you told me like by fourth of July I'd be like, Yeah. So you're Somebody wants to bring. You think post midterms, but definitely before the end of the year. I think so. I would put money on that. Пока! I don't know how much money, but I put money on it.

Um, speaking of money and staff behaving badly, um, it is our solemn duty to discuss the case of um Julia Varvaro, the twenty nine year old who was serving as deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism. At the Department of Homeland Security. Don't worry about it. That's not a big job. Uh according to a former romantic partner who filed a formal complaint against Farvaro.

She is actively on dating sites where, quote, sugar daddies agree to fund the lifestyles of younger women, including one called Seeking, where she offered quote mutually beneficial relationships, according to the Daily Mail. Uh the whistleblower slash ex said he'd spend forty thousand dollars. Not betting that on cash leaving. Uh on gifts and travel for Vivara over the course of their three month relationship, and he thinks she's under financial stress that constitutes a national security risk.

Uh seems like the government agreed because she was placed on administrative leave after the story came out. Uh as you know, Dan, our producers are constantly urging us. not to kink shame on the show. Uh, even though I continued to stress that kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government. What if na if threating national security is your kink? Well then then I'm not sure. I don't know.

I don't know. Yeah. No. If people if people want to go on wherever this is, just to get some sugar daddies, that's fine. If you want to be a sugar daddy, that's fine. If you wanna be a sugar daddy, that's fine. John Faffro, April twenty third, twenty twenty six. Just you know, just w when you uh when you have a a government job, especially one that involves counterterrorism at Homeland Security, I don't know. I have to wanna put yourself in a position of being blackmailed. It was all news to me.

Then I went to my computer and I was about to type in Sugar Daddy Politics. Ha ha ha. And I thought better of it. There's there's a lot of pictures of this guy of the the sugar daddy.

with her that the that the Daily Mail has published and everyone else. And there's um there's one right as we started recording, of course of course our old friend Travis Helwig, who used to work here, sent it to me. And it's just um it's just the sugar daddy standing next to her with a little sign that says, She's horny. Fine. But if you're deputy secretary for counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security, maybe less.

Counterpoint. Um Yeah. On the scale of corruption in this administration, this is fucking quaint. Well it's not corruption necessarily, it's just it's a risk. Oh, I guess, yeah. There's a black male rescue.

The reason that a normal FBI cares about all of this, the reason they all did interviews with all of us before our security clearance stuff like that is the idea is that if you have lied to the FBI or you have secrets that you haven't revealed or some foreign actor or someone can blackmail you and say, if you don't do this for me, I will reveal publicly what I know about you that you

Go on this website or whatever, then you are more likely to do the thing that the foreign government or actor wants you to do. That's the whole that's the whole reason. Um that's that. That's that, Dan. Sugar daddies. For dessert. Yeah. Sugar daddies for dessert. That's what we got for today. All right. When we come back, uh we will talk to the Atlantic's Mark Liebovich about the shit show in California.

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Mark Libovic, welcome to the pod. Great to be back with you guys. Good to see you here in DC. Yeah thanks for letting us back in the the town you rule, Washington, DC. Yeah. Mayor mayor of DC, they call him. That's me. Yep. I got all e you know how all these parties I'm blacklisted from? Yeah, I you know, I'm not even invited anymore. Really? Yeah, you were blacklisted from ours until we just I know. That was unintentional, unfortunately.

Yeah. Um so you visited uh our fair state to report on what you and uh Mike Murphy uh lovingly refer to as the stupid circus, aka the California Well I guess I guess I'd kinda Yeah, you repeat a few times. Which I love. Mechan mechanism. I think that's a good mechanism. Yeah. Um you start the piece at a little league game with Eric Spawwell.

Um which you note quote felt consistent with the wholesome image that the campaign had been straining to project of late for reasons that would become clear soon enough. Um did you get any bad vibes? From your conversation with him? him I got vi bad vibes from everything I had heard about him going into the conversation. Um this was one of those things where

Um I'd spent the whole week just sort of touching as many bases as I could. And Swalwell basically lives here. Um I don't know where he lives now, but he he lives in DC. Uh, you know, back in the quaint days when he was getting heat for like not really living spending that much time in California and that was like a scandal for him. Um, he he was you know, he's here a lot, his kids are here, his wife is here.

Here in DC. Yeah, yeah. He lives I mean he played a place on Capitol Hill. So or at least he used to. So um don't know where he is now. But he is um look, I'd heard everything. It was it was starting to perk up on social media, but that was kinda commensurate with whatever momentum he had.'Cause there w there was definitely some movement to him and Trump did him a huge favor, uh well I guess the Patel did him a huge favor by

releasing these sort of like completely ridiculous ten year old um file that that found no wrongdoing. So You know, a great a great way to get elected statewide in California is to to be a big target of of Donald Trump and, you know, Adam Schiff proved that and knew some I mean, well, he certainly got prop fifty um probably over the finish line. So

I thought so. But I I was I was thinking, you know, how far does this have to go before I mean do I ask do I bring this up at the end or do I wait till another for another conversation? Um but you know there as you got Well there there wasn't. I mean literally three days later, um the implosion happened. But I mean you guys know there's a big gap between stuff that everyone talks about and reportable

actionable stuff and to the eternal credit to the the to the San Francisco Chronicle first, uh later CNN, I mean they they nailed it down and looks like it was kind of tip of the iceberg. So I I mean I definitely caught I I I knew the reputation. I mean he was he's a perfectly He can present. I mean he's a thoughtful ish guy. I mean he's kinda Adam Schiff light in some ways, except without with with all the personal baggage. But uh

So yeah. But I knew something was coming and they were clearly very self conscious about it. It was like and he was going over the top about his kids' Little League thing. I mean he didn't you know, r understandably he wanted to keep his kids out of it but It was a whole dad thing. He brought his wife along. Um she seemed very nice. Um so it was a little over the

In all your reporting, like for and for people who aren't from California, haven't been paying attention to the race, like, why is this the field? It's a great question. Um I mean, you know, the the the uh the short answer is Kamala Harris, Alex Padilla, who apparently everyone wanted to run. I'm not sure I buy that. I think there's a little bit of revisionist history there, but they're big names. They would have, if not cleared the field, definitely would have

you know, probably guaranteed twenty five percent. Certainly Kamala would've maybe a little more. And George Clooney lives in France as you know. Yeah, and you know, New New Newsom's term limited. I mean, there are I mean there are quite a few I think quite talented Congress members of Congress from from the delegation, I think, you know, a couple of mayors. Um but again there's not I mean

There there's not like a giant in the race. And there I don't know if Kamala would have been that person, but there wasn't. So when you have just the math of seven Democrats splitting their votes seven ways, two Republicans who are complete unknowns and

you know, I wouldn't think on elect I wouldn't think that electable in California under uh regular circumstances. They're just splitting their vote two ways. You know, this is the math issue. So The Republicans, and I'm t for anyone who doesn't know, there's a runoff system, jungle primary, top two finishers in the June second primary, uh, regardless of the party, go on to the November election and

In a lot of the polls the top two finishers have been uh Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Uh Riverside County, just basically two Republicans that no one's heard of, but they could get there in November and there could be no Democrat on the ballot. And California is interesting because it's such a big state that it's almost impossible for anyone to be known in it. And we've just had this situation where our last three governors were

Gavin Newsom, who was quite famous when he eventually won because of Gay Marriage Gay Marriage. Jerry Brown, who had been governor before and was a national figure, had run for president. Yep. And Arnold Schwarzenegger before that. Yep. And and if you are a member of Congress

You cannot it's so expensive to run for governor there, you you just it's almost impossible for anyone to ra unless you're a member of Congress with a national profile, which Swabell sort of had, it's impossible to raise the money to run there.

And you just possibly get name ID because we have a million media markets and no one can become famous. And so I even I think Padilla who was a statewide elected official before he became Senator, even if he had run, he still would have fit into this mix because He's no more well known than Javier Becerra, who had been Attorney General and HHS secretary.

That just made me think not to get us off on a tangent, but like d don't you think that's the future or where we are now of national politics at the presidential level too? Like it just seems like If you go back to the nominees of each party, who the president ended up being for the last ten, fifteen years, just the way the attention economy works now. If you are not famous, it is very hard to become famous out of nowhere. Yeah. In national politics, on a n a in a national level.

You have to be someone who is a master at attention. Right. Like Pi Budaj is the example, someone who became famous. He's the one example. So every other candidate in twenty in the twenty twenty Democratic primary finish in order of name ID other the at the outset other than Putaj.

No, but there's a wild card here which is and is relevant to this race, which is Tom Steyr, who basically became known, you know, got actually under debate stages in twenty twenty, uh was actually, you know, he finished seventh in New Hampshire in I think sixth in Iowa or something like that. But he's in

Did he really? He danced with juvenile on stage at the end. Yeah. That's what people will remember about that. Yes. Um yeah. I mean actually no one really remembers that Joe Biden was rescued in South Carolina. It's only it was only that. No, so Tom Steyer, I mean he basically he spent a hundred and forty million dollars so far in this race. I mean it's really quite something. I mean his f strategy is spend as much money as possible

put as many ads out there as possible and take the most liberal position possible and maybe that gets you home. I mean Swalwell wasn't was known but it that's because of M S N B C and CNN. I mean it was and hearings, right? So but that's all national Nationalized political news and very Trump central. Becera. Um he's one person like surprisingly absent in your piece? Is that did they did they not give you an interview?

You know, so that was just I mean, when I wrote it a week ago, he was nowhere. Right. And I kinda had to make I mean I had, you know Twenty five hundred words, I took about four thousand. Um and it's still there's a lot there's a lot to explain, there are a lot of characters and Bacera seemed kinda back in the pack. Um and a lot of it's just logistical. I mean they I was out there to cover this debate, the debate was cancelled, I had seventy two hours

I basically could only stick around Southern California. He was in Northern California, so I mean there's l sometimes a not not a lot of rhyme or reason. He also might just not have wanted to talk to me, as Steyr and uh Porter didn't. Which was a huge mistake on there.

I'm just I I'm trying to figure out um he's had the the surge is real with Bezara. Like he's it's now been a number of polls where he's either in tied for first or right after that. And That the money has followed and I'm just like what what happened? Yeah, well I mean the numbers thinned. I mean I mean Betty Ye, who was at one percent, she dropped out too. So I mean that's a number. But I mean Swalell dropped.

Um and there was a sense for at least a couple of days that Steyr was just gonna be okay, he's gonna inherit the wind here. And I think there was an immediate backlash and a lot of people I talked to were just instantly just offended by that. I mean part of it is just sort of like the basic American ideal that it has hostility towards buying an election, which is basically what this is.

Um and and also the guy doesn't particularly present all that well, and I think Becerra, if he ever got a first look, got a w first and a half look or something like that. And he's quite credential. I mean he he was in the Biden administration. He was the A G in California. Um, you know, he's out there. But there was a debate last night. I don't know how well he did. What'd you guys think of the debate? From what you saw. Dan, what do you think?

I I saw highlights of the debate and then I watched parts of it on 3XP this morning in my one hour to do this. Um I if Bissera had delivered a great performance, he could have essentially locked up a spot here, I think. Um but he did not. And so that leaves the I think you leave the debate still wondering

who the candidate is who could actually s solidify in this field. Because people were really hoping it was going to be Becerra. You know, and California races are largely funded by interest groups, the California teachers, the environmental folks, well trial lawyers. And they would rally around.

Well they could have like they're looking for someone to rally around because Swallow had a lot of these labor endorsements. Um one of them has gone to stire since then. Um but it could he could have seized the momentum but I'm not sure he did. Also not sure how many people watched any of it, so it's hard to say. I thought But Matt Mahan was aggressive in a way that like he he needs

To get attention, right? And so I thought he did he did ball there. Steyr took a lot of incoming. Um, which I was surprised I guess because he's the front still kind of the front runner. Um and so it was a lot of like people attacking Steyr. Bacera didn't seem like I thought Bacera and Katie Porter were both Kind of quiet in the debate. Like they didn't have a lot of big moments.

Yeah, uh Porter was a little better than I think. I mean, I don't know I don't think anyone I don't know if people are going to give her a second look. She kinda stalled. I mean she like Swalwell had a bit of a national profile, was very effective kind of anti Trump Democrat during the first term. Um and didn't get a lot of traction. I mean, there were there were some pretty nasty viral videos about her all that she caused. I mean one sort of jumping down the fa the the throat of uh

a staff well just yelling at a staff member, yelling at a reporter, um, a couple of other things. So Some reputational issues. his seemingly inevitable twenty twenty eight campaign. Or his preference if you if he's preference. I would say okay. I have I have some uh I think some informed wisdom on that. I mean I think he is as underwhelmed as a lot of other people are, a lot of other Democrats are about this field. I think he hasn't been that shy about it privately. Um

Even he told you he said, I think the field is interesting. Yeah. This bit has a great personality. Yeah. So there's that. I mean apparently I mean he I think was looking to to h have some kind of Becerra breakout. I I don't think he has issues I think he's fine with Becerra. Uh he doesn't like Mahan Um, I think he has reservations about Porter. I think he has reservations about Steyr. Um and um for a lot of reasons, but I I think that he was really looking for a reason

to to have someone like Becerra sort of like make his decision for him. So we'll see. I don't I don't know though. I mean I think he would love to A real process of elimination pick. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he he's not always the most decisive guy in the world, but I do think that his indecision here is quite or his his hesitation here is sincere and I think it's reflective of a larger ambivalence among Democrats. Well, he did endorse in the Lieutenant Governor's race this week. He did.

And he has experience as a lieutenant governor.

So it's your favorite weekend of the year? It is. Your Super Bowl. The uh the White House correspondence. Mardi Gras, the whole thing. Yeah. Um I guess the only thing different about this year is a little bit more than a little bit. The Trump's gonna be there at the dinner for the first time since twenty eleven, first time as president. Yeah. Yeah. What do you think though? Has anything changed? When are you getting to the grinder party? Ha ha ha.

I haven't been invited to that. So here's the thing. Okay, full disclosure, um, I've known you guys a long time. I'm I'm sixty years old now. Okay. I'm I'm Spring chicken in Congress. Look right. Thanks. I I feel great. Twenty you're twenty years younger than the uh the median Democrat. Um I don't I mean I I will do a Saturday night. Um first of all, the now that I'm not at the New York Times anymore, I can go to the dinner. The Atlantic has, I think, two tables. Yeah, I was gonna ask you.

They asked me. I went last year, I think I went the year before, they asked if I wanted to go and I wasn't sure I was allowed to say no, but I tried and they accepted my answer. Although I will say I don't know if this is mystique or luster or intrigue or whatever, but From a pure um I mean I think Trump almost certainly has something planned. I mean I I think like the grandma.

Mass arrest or No, but some like a really I mean it would not surprise me at all if he was just intentionally antagonistic. prepared something not the least bit clever, not the least bit funny, not the me least bit gracious. I mean, just think about all the opportunities he's had to play that game. I mean, starting with the Al Smith dinner and when he was with Hillary in twenty sixteen and

I don't think he would have accepted this. Well, I mean I think part of him just thinks, All right, what a spectacle. I'll be in the middle of it, you know, who knows how many opportunities I'll have to be this. It'll be different. But I I I'd be shocked if he didn't have something antagon antagonistic planned and

I mean the media's not organized. I don't know what they're gonna do, but it's um but it'll be it'll be kind of a reality show, which is what he does. And um I mean I don't think there's like a great August and

um f you know, beyond reproach tradition um of the White House correspondence dinner that could be lost and that he could soil like he soiled other institutions around Washington. But I do think that um I mean it could be there could be some friction there um that will be worth watching and I'm kinda glad I don't have to be there for it.

Don't you think it's gonna be a problem when his plan runs headlong into those First Amendment pins that the reporters are That'll do it man. I um so when I was can I tell the story? Well now you have to. So I was um when I went to college I went in the eighties, I graduated college in the eighties, University of Michigan, um they wanted to give an honorary degree to Nelson Mandela.

Uh and um there was some regent or some rule uh the the Michigan regents or something, he couldn't be they if you can't be there in person to receive your honorary degree, you can't get your honorary degree. Nelson Mandel had an excuse. We all know what that was at the time. And um there was an alternative er you know, those of us who were protesting that wore like a big button and I wore you can see on my graduation gown or my thing, it was a Nelson Mandela button. So that was my protest there.

Okay. You accepted the award on his behalf. Yes. Wouldn't that have been fun? Liberal reporter comes out pro man Yellow, right? You know what? Um resistance. No, so uh What do you think about I mean, Trump is the you know, has investigated reporters, has trashed the press, has stomped over the First Amendment. His Secretary of Defense, who is a guest of the Paramount Corporation, has uh kicked the reporters out of the Pentagon.

What do you like, talk to me about how the press sees thinks about going to that dinner in that context? I I think it's well I think it's uncomfortable at best. I mean look I mean the Atlantic is still going. Um and I mean I assume you You guys have been invited to some signal chains, so it's okay. That's right. I mean every everyone at the group chat gets to gets a table.

No. I mean look look, just I mean this week, I mean like S Sarah Kirkpatrick, my colleague, I mean she wrote this cash patel story. They they served us I mean their their filed lawsuit two days ago. Um which I mean there there's That's a little bit standard, I mean like nasty story It's a constitutional response, Doc. Yes, correct. Um but I don't see how many I mean I I don't know a lot of journalists who Hmm.

excited about it just any more than they would normally be. Now there's sort of like a sport around you have to sort of, you know, roll your eyes at the whole thing. It's like oh, I'm above it but my bosses are making it and and

Theor I mean, you can also get a lot of work done. I mean, if you're one stop shopping and you want to talk to people and stuff, but um no, but I mean it I think the the dissonance between what Trump talks about, what the administration has done, and what the dinner is supposed to stand for kind of is pretty obvious. I mean that be highlighted when the Wall Street Journal gets the reward for their Epstein letter story.

That'll be an interesting scene, right? Um I mean I d do wonder about it. I mean I was actually I still think there's a non zero chance that he could pull it. Yeah. Uh two hundred and fifty journalists, Dan Rather, Sam Donaldson, signed an open letter demanding that the White House Correspondents Association use the podium to condemn Trump by name and toast the First Amendment. You think there's any chance they do that?

Um I was gonna say something snarky, um but n I would say no. I don't think there's a chance. Yeah, like I I saw it and I f it's funny'cause at first I'm like, Well that's not gonna happen but I'm like, Well what? I could imagine a condemnation that is not so harsh and unfair that it like I I could imagine doing it in a a thoughtful way. Yeah, I can see that. Um but I don't know. I mean who's the president? Uh of the correspondence association. Oh Marco Rubio is now the Yeah, so that's where.

It's um. I mean the whole thing is th it's it's always been bizarre. It's more bizarre now. The best argument that the media organizations can make is the money goes to pay for scholarships for young journalists. Scholarships. Yep. There are are there ways to raise money for journalistic scholarships that don't involve a toast to a president who disbanded the White House press pool? Maybe, but

Yeah. I j yeah, the po the toast to the President of the United States and uh is always I mean I don't care who the president is, I it just strikes me as Distaste. Yeah, the whole thing. The toast is crazy. Imagining the toast tonight, that uh tomorrow n whenever it is, Saturday night, it's crazy. It is one thing to be there with him, which is like you can debate that enough, but the actual toast is just what are we?

There there are two reasons to go. I mean, one, the comedians can be good, have It's a Forget. The the manosphere's mentalist, apparently. And and there are certain moments when presidents can deli you know, with good timing. I mean, the guy you worked for can can do well. I don't think Biden's talks were terribly good. Um Bush had his moments, I thought. Clinton had his moments. Um I don't know. I mean but that's those days are long gone.

Um last question for you. This town came out in twenty thirteen. If you were writing the twenty twenty six edition. Uh, what's the opening scene? Who's the central character? Opening scene oh man you put me on the spot 最後までご視聴ありがとうございました Yeah, please. You're at Butterworth. No, that story's been done. कर दो कर दो What about that call? I thought I texted you about one. There was a funeral. There was another funeral you I mean there have been a lot of funerals. I mean

'Cause you'cause you opened this town as people know it. Yeah. I mean here's the thing. I mean, Wasn't it Carter's? Was you were you a Carter's fan? I've done a lot of things. Since that book came out of Yeah.

New York Times I did do a cheney piece and I've been assigned a number of pieces. I remember the last one of the last pieces I did for the New York Times, I was kinda playing out the string and cleaning out my desk and um Elizabeth Bumiller, my boss, walked over to me and said, Hey, uh you know Bob Dole died? And the the um the funerals at the Kennedy Center or not the Kennedy Center, at the National Cathedral on Friday, you gotta cover it.

So I mean there were several moments like that where I was kind of became the funeral guy. Um that was during COVID too. I remember like and it was a huge deal. Fun beat. To wear a mask.'Cause you were in a cathedral You are packed with elderly people, you know, p signs everywhere, wear a mask, wear a mask, D C rules, the whole thing. And I remember looking I was sitting in the press area right above where the Senate was seated, where most of a lot of the sitting senators were.

Every single one of them was wearing a mask except for Ted Cruz, who was being completely ostentatious about it. And you know, we're talking elderly people, you know, there's no vaccine yet. you know, right across the way and I mean it was a church, I mean just the whole thing and, you know, he probably got a shout out for it. Anyway, um There are...

The problem with I mean Tim Russert that was the thing though. I mean the the critique which seems very quaint now was that there was this one world, one Washington, you know, uh overly chummy world between the media and the money people and the lobbyists and the former people and the elected officials and the White House and Congress.

And that was what was insidious at the time, which of course in retrospect seems like a comedy of manners. I mean the fact that Trent Lott and John Brough, a Democrat and a Republican, or Republican and a Democrat, would go into business together um and make money, I mean, that was like a scandal. And I mean again, it's almost I'm not embarrassed by it'cause it was just a but it just gives you a sense of how much time has passed.

The second book was Suck Up Culture, but it was really around Trump. Yeah. I mean I do think okay so I think that It's kind of running on two tracks now. It's suck up culture around Trump, which is which is I mean it it's just it's be gone beyond cult level. But there's also um so my book was called Thank You for Your Servitude. Um I don't know if I can talk about this, but I will anyway. Jacob Weisberg has a book coming out called Profiles and Cowardice, which

Um I read like a part of it and it's it's similar way. It's there's a lot of that. I mean it's sort of of a piece to that. Um I don't know. I mean I I do think that i it's hard to think of like what the one what the merger of MAGA and sort of normie politics as we know it, whether you know, independents, Democrats, some Republicans

Yeah. I mean my sen like I've been gone from the city for ten years now, but my sense is there is just less of the stuff that was at the center of your book, which is basically this idea that everyone you know, cosplayed rivals during the day and then they went to the same cocktail parties at night and all hung out and it was the like one party circuit. And it doesn't seem like that's necessarily still the case in the same way.

Yeah, I don't see how it could. I I honestly don't. I mean, I I just have people who I mean believe I mean, you've all lived here. I mean, it was actually possible to have bipartisan friendships for It's hard. Like I mean it MAGA just like it's a whole different dimension and they don't seem to wanna have much to do with Mainstream journalists, mainstream democrats, you know, people who have critip been critical of President Trump and and vice versa. Democratic institutions.

Yeah. I mean again, I mean I always thought that and and other presidents have tried variations on this, but I mean blowing off the White House correspondence dinner would would have been a great move for any president, not not just once Trump's heart Trump started doing it. I mean I thought You know, Obama, Bush, whoever would have gotten you know, would've gotten credit for it in some way. It might have been some grudging, you know. If people want to come pitch on the storm.

How disrespectful to the First Amendment? Yeah, that would have been terrible. Yeah. Um yeah, the c anyway, no, but but so um I I I mean so but I yeah, so Trump was obviously he wasn't onto something, but I mean he just sort of he just trashed the whatever polite society existed here that was probably too cozy for its own good. Now he's trying to just run it'cause he went to the uh alfalfa didn't he go to the alfalfa dinner?

He did. Yeah. He did. Which makes the White House correspondence dinner look like uh Buffalo Wild Wings. Yeah. That's pretty that's a good line. No, I've never actually been to the Alfalfa dinner. I staffed Obama at it once. Really. I w I ate uh Burger King in the uh in the back room while he spoke. 'Cause they're good they didn't have food for the staff. So we so Reggie and I Marvin and I had to go to Burger King to uh to eat with Perfect. Thank you so much. Thanks guys.

Come come to our party, we'll toast you. We'll do a toast of the First Amendment specifically. Bring your first amendment pins. Oh, I totally will. Yeah. Actually you know what though? There'll but there'll be like a like a kitty for us to like put money in for the scholarships, right? Yes, yes, of course. The ri the Pod Save America scholarships. Yes. For a young podcast. Just start now. Buy the tight t shirts and Yeah. Yeah.

Thanks to Mark Liebervich for coming on. Uh Tommy will be back with an interview with Sarah Longwell uh on Sundays PSA and then Tommy and Lovett and I will be back with a new episode in your feet on Tuesdays. If you want to listen to PodSave America ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to Cricket.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts.

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