Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Faber. I'm John Love it. I'm Tommy Vittor. We are coming
with a special episode with just one day left before the results start coming in. The final polls have arrived, including an atomic bomb from Anseltser, and this race is either headed towards the closest finish we've seen in our lifetimes, or a landslide, or a million different outcomes in between none of which should really surprise us because of the last decade in politics. We're going to get into all that a bit later on, but first, the three of us, Dan, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vittor, Vitt
Arizona and Nevada over the weekend. You guys want to talk about what stuck with you out of all of our doorknox and canvas kickoffs? Absolutely. I mean, the best part is meeting all the folks who are there from Votes, America. There were people who lived in Nevada, Arizona, and just came over to do a shift. There were people that traveled from out of state. I talked to a guy who had come to a positive
America live show in Las Vegas in 2018 with his daughter who was in high school at the time. She asked a question. Later, got so interested in politics that she worked for Interfer Jackie Rosen. Now, he's getting advanced degree out here in California. Those are just the best part of doing the show, meeting people like that who are taking action and getting off the polar coaster that last weekend and knock some doors. Yeah. First of all, one thing that was two hopeful
signs. One is we were knocking on, we'd have to walk a bunch of doors before getting to the next door that we would knock. In part because we've hit a lot of these doors and a lot of these people have either said, please do not knock on my door again. I already voted or I'm planning to vote. But we were onto these last few doors and there's one person that answered the door while I was , I was knocking on doors in Nina and she was like, I'm going to vote sometime next week. Whoa,
whoa, whoa. You have to vote on Tuesday now. She didn't know how to vote. She didn't know where to vote. We got her that information. And there are other people I know you guys knocked on a door of somebody who was truly undecided. Yeah. She was 73 year old Asian American woman in East Las Vegas. And we knocked on her door and there was a very large barking dog that she was barking
while she was trying to talk to us and it was sort of broke. We're trying to understand her and she basically was like, she's like, well, President Trump, Trump and we're like, no, no Trump. And she's like, and we held up our lit and it said Kamala Harris, you know, and we're like, Kamala Harris, she goes, did she let in all of the migrants that they're and we're like, no, no, yes,
but it's good. No, we were like, look, if she becomes president, here's what she's going to do on the border and she's already done this and this, it's going to close and people who are here and working out of a path, this isn't just a trip. And also, and then Tommy's in the background, Tommy's goes, and she's going to lower your taxes, lower your taxes. And then Nina and I are like in your prescription drugs and also your health cares of like that and she starts looking at all
and she goes, yeah, okay, I'm voting Kamala. She goes, and then Nina's like, really? She's like, I promise. I promise Kamala and we're like, yeah. Shout out to Nina who is absolutely fearless about talking to everyone. Like the trumpiest person we walk by, the dude next to her on the plane that she then had to sit next to for an hour when he turned out to be a Trump fan, every waitress we had. We got one. We got two waitresses. We lost the hostess. That's right. We lost that. Yeah,
we lost the hostess. We got the waiter. Just tough. I didn't get any of my dealers. I will say in and I'm absolutely that black jacket. No, no, no, no, don't look at me like that. Both. I will say the people, even the people who were voting for Harris, especially in Vegas, were like really enthusiastic. They were like, yes, of course, Kamala. There was a lot of, of course, of course. We kept saying that the vibes felt better in Vegas than they did in Phoenix.
Part of that though when we talked to a lot of the folks who have been on the ground in Arizona, I don't know if it's necessarily like the vibes aren't as good because we're losing. It's really tense in Arizona. People are afraid to put Kamala Harris signs up and there's a lot more Trump signs this time. There's people talking about threats and harassment and stuff and it was very, it really gives you a window into what it's like being on the ground in a highly contested
swing state. Yeah, the other point to note is that we didn't see any Trump or Republican canvassers. We were in, like, look, we have we have knocked on doors in college towns. We have knocked on doors in Madison, Wisconsin and that's a breeze. Yeah, that's when you get people who aren't on your list and they're walking their dogs and they're like, oh, friend of the pod. Yeah, that's yeah, you open the door. It's a call Congress sweatshirt. I think we got this person in the
back. Stop project 2025 button. But these were the really, these were the really closely divided and like last kind of persuatable areas. And so you do feel that tension. I'm with the guy in Henderson. We were in a suburb of Vegas, Henderson. And it was like a pretty divided neighborhood. Trump and Harris. And one guy opens the door and we were actually looking for his wife. And he's like, she's voted and we're sort of nervous. We're like, well,
what about you? Are you voting for Harris? He's like, yeah. And then we're like, what about your neighborhood? He's like, it's a tough neighborhood. He's like half of us are voting for Kamala and the other half are treasonous assholes. We're like, okay, we got him. We got him. Joe Biden's message worked on it. Yeah. That was the other thing too. It's like there were so many people turning out to knock on doors. We like in all these places, there was like more people than we expected to see.
And you go look on some of these Republican candidates and they're putting up their pictures of their, uh, uh, uh, Kimphus kicks off and they don't have, they don't have the bodies. Yeah. They don't know the people. I will say just in case you're thinking like, oh, well, door knocking is about like reminding voters or there's some people who still aren't super tuned in. Remember the guy who is like a like late 20s. He's washing his car and Henderson.
We go by we start talking to these guys headphones on. We're gonna vote who you're gonna vote for. And he's like, uh, probably come along. Yeah. Love it. It's like probably what, what else can I say to you? What else can I say? Do you want to talk about politics here on a Sunday morning? They're like, please go away. And I was just like, found myself to like, there were some of the answers to the door and he, he, he was not on the list, but I think his two members
of his family were on the list and he's like, I don't vote and I'm not registered to vote. And he's already passed the deadline. So we're like, well, we'll get you next time. And, uh, and I just found that you realize like at the end here, like you just want to go to something so simple. I was like, commas for lowering costs, trumps for a national sales tax. Tell your family, tell your friends, tell everybody. You also realized just how divorced the kind of cable news,
Twitter conversation about politics is when we're in a very working class neighborhood. And I guarantee you those people are not up to speed on, uh, the whether Liz Cheney should be out on the trail or how many interviews Kamala Harris had done or call her daddy versus Joe Rogan like it was squirrel assassination. Yeah. We were so busy. I kind of have missed that. I don't want to go. Anyway, but yeah, there's like a lot of people living in some tough, you know, economic circumstances
in a reminder of who we as Democrats are supposed to be helping. We want the government to help and, you know, some motivation. And then on the flip side, all of you, all the volunteers are so consuming all of the information. We got off the, we got off the plane last night. I were walking to the car and this was like, I mean, I didn't even know who the hell in Selser was to tell them my friends about the Selser. My friends about the Selser pole. Hopefully a lot of you guys were
out there on the doors too, uh, making calls to your friends in the battlegrounds. You know who else was making calls to his friends? Who? This guy. Aaron, come here. What's up, man? Hey, I'm good. Anything going on. Anything going on. That's not much going on right now. Just two days to the election. So, uh, hey, hey, I'm calling. We got it. We got an operation going or we're getting folks that are pushing to get to make
sure their friends have voted and got somebody else to vote. You guys done already voting? Yes, we have. All right. You take anybody else to pull? Well, I made sure we'll be voted. That's good work right there, man. We're going to win this thing, Aaron. And I'm grateful for your, grateful for that support. If you get anybody else to the polls, I know you got all the kids to vote and everything, but uh, call somebody else. Get them. We're making a chain of this stuff.
Podsave America listeners. Hey, I just made my call to friends to my three friends. Get out there. Make the difference on this thing. We got two days. Let's win this thing. All right, Tim. Well, Tim. You know what guys? If Tim walls, Tim walls can do it. Who is doing a million rallies a day can find the time to call his friends. You can find the time today and tomorrow morning, whenever right up until polls close to call your friends in swing states and get them to vote.
Three friends also according to our folks over votes of America. The votes of America volunteers have made nearly 12 million voter conduct attempts, including 215,000 door knocks and nearly 5 million calls made. So people have been putting in the work. So thank you. So I'm proud of you guys. I did that. You should be proud of yourselves too. All right. Let's talk about the candidates final weekend. Kamala Harris clearly believes every swing state is still in play because she was
everywhere from Georgia and North Carolina to Michigan over the weekend. Today alone, the campaign has a series of rallies and concerts in Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Raleigh, Pittsburgh, and one final event in Philadelphia that will feature Lady Gaga, the roots, Oprah, Ricky Martin, and Fat Joe, which is always how you end a campaign. What a coalition. What a coalition. Let's get Liz Cheney up there. Joe looks like George W. Bush's surprise guest.
George W. Bush and Taylor Swift, Joe looks like he lost a few. You know, I haven't seen him. I just want to give him some credit. The big Celeb cameo this weekend came from Kamala herself. I made a stage. I thought of it too late. The big Celeb cameo came this weekend from Kamala herself who made a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live. Let's listen. It's nice to see you Kamala. It is nice to see you Kamala. And I'm just here to remind you,
you got this because you can do something your opponent cannot do. You can open doors. I see what you did. They're like to a garbage truck, right? Kamala. Take my pomela. The American people want to stop the chaos and end the drama. Kamala. With a cool new step, Mama. Keep backing up, pajamas. And watch a rom Kamala. Like legally blonde, because what do we always say? Keep Kamala and carry on. What you guys think about SNL? It was really funny. It was good. It was well done. I'm really
going to miss Dana Carvey's show, but that is just hilarious. I didn't get to watch the entire skit until last night we got home. Once again, he just nailed. It's also pretty intense that they did that Joe Biden bit in front of Kamala Harris who's sitting there in that chair, which is great. Yeah, it was good. I mean, I appreciate it. It was like pretty on message. I know that Trump wants to shut down NBC and put Lauren Michaels in prison for some sort of
law-breaking, related to this, but it was it was a pretty good incine contribution. I'll take it. Well, they gave Trump. They gave Trump the same amount of time during a NASCAR event.
A NASCAR race yesterday. Yeah, it was definitely a high information skit. You had to know about Trump's stupid garbage truck driving press conference, which by the way, Politico found some voters, some Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania, who saw that and actually thought it was a continuation of the Killtony joke that kicked this whole off calling Puerto
Rico an island of garbage. So brilliant plan there. Yeah, I think it's the SNL's not not changing any minds, but I do think it projects like confidence and optimism, like in the final weekend and like she can hang and I got a text from a friend who he was always going to vote for Kamala, but there was a, you know, like a month ago, I was really trying to convince him that like, she's she's good. She's a great candidate. She's gonna and he was like really down on it and he
texted me after things like, oh, she's gonna win now. She's gonna win. That was amazing. I'm like, okay, well, it's enough to not go too crazy, but but I think it did give some people who were probably already on her side like, all right, let's do that. Yeah, I mean, look, the message is like can't we we want to move on from this kind of politics and we want to just go back to watching Ramcom's and not thinking about it so much. I think it appears to a certain certain S.I.L. watching
who will be disappointed, even if we win. Right. But I thought I thought it was good. I saw, you know, I think SNL is primarily consumed on YouTube these days in 9.3 million people had watched the opening skit. So it's pretty good. Yeah. Harris pretty much stuck to the closing argument she delivered in DC over the weekend. The campaign also released two final two-minute ads. One that shows Harris talking to people she's met on the campaign trail, promising to be a president for
all Americans, tagging her economic plans. They also have like big giant block letters on the screen, take on price gouging, bring down the cost of groceries, bring down the cost of prescriptions. If that was the the pros version of the final ad, there was a more poetry version that just came out right before we recorded. That's sort of more sweeping. It's got the movie narrator voice. It's doing freedom. It hits Trump and Elon Musk ties them to, ties Trump to billionaires and politicians
doing the same old shit. I like, I like that one too. Any thoughts on her overall final pitch in these last days, either with the ads or on the stump? My, my honestly my overall reaction is that it's like there's nothing particularly new in the video and it's a testament to how just exquisitely on message this campaign has been from the moment she became the candidate until
these final days. They are trying to hammer these key points that they think will bring along the last few undecided on things like costs, on commonsense solutions, something that she said in her speech and that is in both of these ads. Clearly must be something that tests very well amongst a narrow sliver of voters they're trying to get to. I like the ad, I book, I'm a sucker for to this morning we rise kind of an ad of works on me every time that's that'll never change for me.
But overall it is just a reminder that like we're going to talk about what we know, like what we've learned over the course of this campaign and we have learned a lot but I do think one thing we are going to find out on Wednesday is about the value of an incredibly effective campaign and a campaign that is on message trying to reach people and yeah.
I will say at her rally on Sunday night she didn't mention Trump's name once it was first time and in the first ad doesn't really mention Trump Trump's barely mentioned in that second ad the freedom ad. And I think that they've been like listening to her message the ads at the end of the week.
Tommy and I had this you know like friendly debate on the last part about the fascism and the economic stuff the truth is they did it all you know at the end of the day they realized that you kind of you have to you have to raise the stakes of the election you have to remind people what
they don't like about Trump you have to introduce her you have to make sure that she's defined in a way that she's acceptable to people and then you also have to talk about her plans for those you know like I think they did it all they definitely did it all I mean I think the question the challenge
in politics is measuring inputs versus outputs and you can obviously put all of that in the speech the question is what gets to people and it is kind of funny that there's two final two-minute ads like usually you have one because you're making some choices campaign that has a billion dollars
right there's got so much money but I think they're great like I like the I love the clips of her talking with voters where she seems like a human being connected and I like the policy stuff at the top I hate the narrative voice stuff but whatever that's fine not us different now who knows
what like what voter is gonna see this ad that hasn't already seen a trillion ads we don't know but I did like usually these campaigns close on a positive message at least Democrats close positive close optimistically I noticed too that they proactively release to press that they had not mentioned Donald Trump in that event I don't know if that's undercut by then releasing an ad that very much does mention him and as the clips of Elon Musk looking like a goober I'm guessing
no one gives a shit but I like her like you know telling us that there is a different brand of politics that we can achieve on Tuesday I also think the decision to do everything everywhere all at once is very reflective of the information environment we're in now and how there's just like huge
segments of voters that they need to reach that aren't getting their news from the same place that aren't watching the same media and so it's like all right little little cost for this group of voters little freedom and abortion for this group of vote right like they kind of have to do it all
and for us it seems because we are junky super attention at all the time it seems like it's all over the place but if you're one of these voters we talked to over the weekend you just happen to turn on the TV or look on YouTube or wherever you get your news from hopefully you see the right
the right message to the wheel that like you feel that you just you just feel this ad just like a pen an inch above the paper and they're just like trying to fucking drag the pen just down fucking thing I'm like just get on the fucking thing I don't quite know what what
that like the metaphor it's just like that that this is it this feels to me like ads aimed at people who are either the people that are leaning towards Kamala that are open to Donald Trump and they're just trying to get people to just like that last little gap of like do I really gonna vote for
this person what's what you were just saying about on the doors like the best thing about talking to under-sided voters is you don't have much time and you really do have to boil it down to just like what's your what what's the thing you're gonna say to them if you have five seconds yeah
yeah right on the republican side it is like they're closing on a dead squirrel somewhere for some I mean look and I I will say they're at what about you talk about Donald Trump their ads are closing on the message yeah probably the right message you know at least if you're the Republicans
and want to win Trump on the other hand he's taken a different approach to his final days on the trail where he has openly fantasized about people shooting Liz Cheney and journalists said he regrets ever leaving the White House after his failed coup promised to put an anti-vax conspiracy
theorist in charge of public health mused that it should be illegal to release polls that show he's losing called Democrats demonic and deep-throated a microphone let's listen to get me somebody would have to shoot through the fake news and I don't mind that so much I don't mind this is a group of
people large group of people larger than people think but it's a very demonic party we had the safest border in the history of our country the day that I left I shouldn't have left I mean honestly isn't this better than my speech I love being off these stupid telepractors because the
truth comes out isn't this better than my speech sounded like I didn't know that he would he didn't drink I would think he was a little he hates his prepared remarks so politica's headline about Trump's final weekend is Trump returns to his grievances for his closing argument the Washington
Post went with GOP's closing election message on health baffle strategist worries experts and the New York Times story out of the Pennsylvania event called Trump quote sluggish and aggrieved that was in the headline and the piece pointed out that Suzy Wiles who's running the Trump campaign
appeared to be giving Trump the rapid up sign at some point I'm not sure what do you guys think is going on with Trump in these final days and would anyone like to argue that any of it is strategic no chance I mean I walked by the TV this morning and I heard him repeatedly mentioned Al Sharpton
I was like what what happened here to Dal Sharpton and Doris Donald Trump no he was telling a long whiny story about Van Jones being mean to him and I believe 2017 that's where we're at it's just like I grieve in spest and I think we're not we don't know if he's going to win or lose but
there's just no question if he loses that part of it is because of this last since what of the October 27th was the Madison Square Garden hate fest which was so terrible that even Megan Kelly like a diet in the world mega person now was complaining about it and he's talking about
shooting reporters I mean the bullwork just had a piece out where Trump came off stage after the event where he suggested that reporters might get shot and he knew he had screwed up he knows that relitigating 2020 is bad so he seems just like an exhausted old man who is you know at the end
of a process that would be brutal for someone half his age and I think he also takes cues from the audience and he wants to entertain them and he doesn't think his speech is entertaining you know he starts with our you better off than you were four years ago and he's bored of that and by the
end he's doing the weave for 96 minutes and we're talking about you know squirrels or something yeah I mean like he jokes about we're theory though the amount of like kind of a performative laughter from the crowd when he jokes about reporters getting murdered you know we went through a
new cycle of actually there's an explanation for his weird violent fantasy about murdering Liz Cheney right the chicken hawk yeah the the SNL the journalist chicken hawks too yeah yeah the SNL part of the people aren't talking about as part with the Trump impression
and actually really kind of capture something about Trump in the home stretch here which he's like I don't want to keep doing this I don't want to be up here anymore there is a like I try to be with you people don't don't still wishes you were running against Joe Biden he I you can see in how he
is right now that he is like fundamentally like pissed off because if Joe Biden were the candidate he thinks he'd be walking away with this thing and now he's fighting it to a draw I'm sure he is seeing the actual internal polling from the Trump campaign showing how fucking close it is
it's infuriating to him and there's like just he's angry he's angry and he's tired and when he's tired he can't help but be himself and it's kind of productive I've heard some people surmise that maybe all this RFK junior shit that's going on where he's like letting RFK junior out saying he's
going to run public health and Trump saying I'm going to put him in charge of women's health and Trump's appearing with him in Michigan and all this kind of stuff has to do with like maybe they're trying to like get some RFK junior curious voters on board with Trump especially places where RFK
junior couldn't take himself off the ballot like Michigan like Wisconsin like maybe but I also think uh Ackham's razor hair is just like uh Trump says whatever the fuck comes out of his with Zon his mind yeah and I don't know that RFK is the most loyal guy I mean he's always been
kind of a narcissist and it for himself but yes he know Trump's out there getting questions about whether uh he would ban vaccines now I get rid of vaccine mandates ban vaccines and you know we're not just talking about like MR and A vaccines or COVID you know RFK junior is someone who
questions the polio vaccine these easels I mean things that you know put humanity in a much better situation and by the way Trump left it open when I left it open left it open um yeah I mean again is you're making arguments to people in the last minute RFK junior also he
decided to tweet like when Trump takes office in January the first thing we'll do is remove fluoride from drinking water like what like something that has uh helped people's dental health for decades now yeah like like I like I that's what America is gonna go for the polls they want more cavities let's time for America's children to have more cavities that's what everybody's out for right now I do like I think two things can be true right I think he is hearing like hey there's some
the the low information RFK people still might be voting for RFK let's try to get something in front of those people counting on the fact that in the last 72 or 48 hours of the election the fact that Donald Trump is suddenly promising to end all vaccine mandates and maybe take vaccines off the shelves is not going to reach the other kinds of people uh for whom that might be persuasive or at least a uh another final proof point for how Donald Trump is unstable and dangerous.
Tim Elberta and the Atlantic has a long piece about sort of the Trump campaign towards the end and you know he makes a good point that based on all the people he talked to close to Trump Trump just doesn't like come and normal and disciplined he doesn't trust it and he gets bored
like time you see with his speech you also get just gets bored with everything seeming normal and going well for him he loves the chaos he he wants to trust his gut and say whatever the hell he wants and oh all exact all the kind of qualities you want uh in a president just a classic look look
the man needs therapy you recreate the patterns you had in your gym you make you feel safe you don't trust when things are going well Trump we've been there we've all been there gotta work through that can't believe that Tim Elberta piece came out this weekend yeah
I was on our flight on our flight to Arizona yeah but I do look I think he has closed horribly again he might win right because maybe a lot of the vote is already a lot of the vote is already baked in and a lot of people have already decided and so maybe that's enough for Trump to win
I just it is not it was not surprising to hear David Plough and General Malley Dylan and folks on the Biden campaign saying that they are uh in the last week they won uh undecided voters by double digits because I don't think Trump has done anything to convince people in this
last week who weren't already inclined to vote for um uh Detroit free press front page split screen it says VP Harris voices optimism for America in message to Michigan and then in the other side it says Trump campaigns and swing states says he shouldn't have left White House like that's
the front page the Michigan voters are waking up to you know that news all right so this weekend we also got the final dump of polls in this race uh the last round of time sienna swing state polls came out on Sunday morning it was kind of a surprising mix uh they have Harris up three points
in Nevada two points in North Carolina two points in Wisconsin one point in Georgia tied in Pennsylvania in Michigan and down for an Arizona uh Nate Cohn wrote in his analysis that there's some evidence of late deciders breaking for Harris he has it at 16 points 58 to 42 the gap is much wider in
the Sunbelt states and then Trump leads by about the same margin among late deciders in the blue wall which is interesting now is the yeah we you want to stop and now with that we want to keep going let's keep going all in all it suggests that there's more movement in the Sunbelt uh and it's
going towards Harris but basically everything tied everywhere at least according to the times their average now is one point or less than every battleground except Arizona when to stop and just talk about these polls yeah let's do this first because that because uh overall it's just
another poll set of polls showing it's really really close and the fact that voters in the Sun belts are breaking towards Harris comports with what David Plough was saying there is this one strange number out of these polls which is that in the uh uh the northern swing states
Trump led 60 to 40 among late deciders which is an opposite of the three Sunbelt states and from what we've heard from the Harris campaign so it was just it was just strange and it's just one of those like well that data point makes a narrative really hard to form uh and that's all yeah
so that you know it's all it's all tied up i do think one explanation for her doing better in the Sunbelt and then slightly worse in the northern battlegrounds is it's just the electorate is starting to return to form to the 2020 electorate a little bit and you know you saw this some you
gov did had done a series of polls of black voters and Trump share of the black vote has basically stayed the same over the last several months but Harris has has grown in the in their final wave of polls and so you're starting to see in high quality polls that sort of focus on an entire
demographic so that you don't get these like you know cross tab small samples you see the black vote starting to look more like it did in 2020 you see the Latino vote starting to look more like it did in 2020 the youth vote starting to look more right so you're seeing some reversion in some
of these polls to like what the electorate was like in 2020 which would make sense of why the Sunbelt is getting a little better for her and then it's getting a little tighter in the northern battle yeah I also the one of Nate Cohen pointed this out about late deciders that both of these
things can be true it can be true that in the that in Pennsylvania according to the times late breakers are going towards Trump and according to the Harris campaign they're going towards Harris just one of those things has to be true and the question is like what is the artifact of this polling
that's pulling out that kind of information it might just be that the like that that people saying that they are late deciders may have in a previous poll is what Nate pointed out might have already have been saying they were voting for Harris had they been called a week or two earlier yeah there's
a general reason next bag I mean we want her to win the Midwestern states are in foremost because that seems to be the most likely path but there was a surprisingly strong result out of Nevada that we hadn't seen in a while which seemed to cut against the doom and gloom we'd seen from
John Rawson about the early vote so again we're just emotional basket cases that's right well the poll heard round the world there we go dropped on Saturday night as the legendary and seltzer of the Des Moines Register came down from the mountaintop with a tablet that showed Kamala Harris leading
Donald Trump 47 44 in the state of Iowa a state that Donald Trump won by eight points in 2020 and where seltzer's June poll of this year had Trump leading Joe Biden by 18 points in 2020 seltzer's final poll showing Trump up by seven was the first and only sign that the polls were
underestimating Trump like they did in 2016 when seltzer's final poll showed him with a seven point lead over Hillary Clinton he ended up winning the state by nine that year that was a terrifying moment for all of us in 2016 when we're like oh maybe this is not going to go the way we think
I remember we're like no or that yeah according to the poll the shocking result this time around is based on a surge towards Harris among older and independent women Trump of course called it a fake poll done by a Trump hater and a call with an NBC reporter he'd previously called it a really
great poll of course the Harris campaign said on a briefing call quote we are seeing that we're closing strong I would not read into it any more than that point taken but let's do it anyway Tommy how should people be thinking about this poll I mean I think it's it's a shocking outlier
but one from someone who's considered one of the best bolsters in the business if not the best I personally cannot overstate how large and seltzer loomed in my life because she basically called the Iowa caucuses in 2008 or at least you know she had Obama winning by basically the margin that
he ultimately won by so you know you you explained how seltzer got this result which was older voters independent women breaking for Kamala Harris oddly she has Harris winning senior men men over 65 by two points which is just kind of like hard to fathom seltzer says she doesn't know exactly how
why this is happening she thinks it's because of Iowa's extremely draconian six week abortion ban and the impact that is having the one thing that just worth knowing is is seltzer's methodology is different from a lot of other pollsters because she basically just draws her sample by randomly
calling Iowa phone numbers landlines and cell phones they contacted the thousand adults to get 808 Iowans they waited a little bit but they're not doing all the kind of monkey business that a lot of other pollsters are doing where they are basically asking her to respond to they voted for in 2020
and waiting their sample that way so it looks like that electorate so you know it's a gutsy poll to release because she knew you know she says in an interview with Tim Miller she did yesterday one day my methodology won't work and I'll explode and like spread into little pieces over Des Moines or something very funny like that but we'll see yeah I mean like my take away from the poll so first of this another poll out of Kansas that showed Trump only winning by five and I bring it up only
because these are polls that can't heard because no one else is pulling these states and those polls could actually end up becoming outliers and it turns out that the polls showing a tie or Trump ahead are correct and we'll say up these were outliers because maybe those voters were because
of how she samples or because of the politics of those places slightly different but all in all it takes tells me like you know Nate Cohen wrote up about these times sienna polls that basically if there's a polling error like 2020 it could turn out that Donald Trump could run the table if there's
a polling error like 2022 could turn out that Harris runs the table and I think the truth is we just don't know because as Tommy pointed out a lot of these polls are being weighted towards the 2020 sample which is just a way to kind of basically have them all heard towards a result that kind of
looks like 2020 with certain assumptions about how the electorate has changed baked in but that's not really a poll right that's something else that's that's a model or that's yes I was a and and shelter said this to to Tim but her waiting that you know she's defending her waiting right which
is not weighted towards recalled vote or party even party ID or registration but it is by demographic and so she's getting enough of each kind of voter in Iowa and by region right so she's trying to get so she's trying to avoid the lily's congressional district just yeah just getting a bunch of
excited lives but who knows I think there's just a signal in the poll I think that's the best you can say right which is that there is that Harris is holding up surprisingly well maybe among older voters now of course the polls said that Biden was doing really well with seniors and then he
did typical performance with seniors a little bit better than Hillary had but in its showing that women older women independent women are really really motivated to go vote and that could have implications for Wisconsin that traditionally that has been what celtars poll has has told people
and in this was the case in 16 and 20 like oh well if Trump's doing that well in Iowa then maybe Joe Biden or maybe Hillary Clinton aren't doing as well as we think according to the polls and Wisconsin which ended up being true that those years she could be wrong of course her last miss
her last big miss on the presidential level was in 2004 but even then she had carry up by three bush ended up winning by 0.7 so that was so like his type this is what she has in this result is an 11 point swing from the 2020 results margin of error at the 95% confidence level is nine
let's say that it's nine right let's see she's off by nine that's still Trump plus six and Iowa instead of Trump plus eight would still be a shift to the left by two points yeah the the the the takeaway for me like stepping all the way back is okay well it seems like Anna suggesting
there's an error in the polls that looks a bit more like 2022 that there is this pro choice anti-dobs vote and then the question becomes okay I always a place with a draconian abortion a lot uh uh was consensitate uh that uh just elected a Supreme Court judge uh to uh stop them from having
a draconian ancient abortion law in place but it's a state where that was very much a fear you have Michigan where a creature Whitmer campaigned on protecting abortion access uh you have Pennsylvania where you have a democratic governor uh that has been able to protect abortion access
the question is what does that anti uh dobs pro abortion coalition look like in states where abortion isn't as much under threat or on a state like Arizona where they have a ballot measure or Nevada where they have a ballot measure and I guess that's that to me is uh the open question for what it's
worth Tim asked and Salter about what this result could mean for Wisconsin he's like because there's a lot of white people in both places and they eat it culverts and she cautioned against that kind of analysis I mean I was just said she can't she's like I'm not qualified to know because I don't
well she said oh yeah she said the only way I'd agree to do that is if I pulled that state but it's also just worth pointing out that Wisconsin is getting hundreds of millions of dollars worth of messaging every day there's field teams there's people not indoors I was gotten none of that because
it's not a competitive state so you're probably it's probably easier to reach people they're just not hearing the campaign messaging so it's it's just like it's a big like who knows but uh the hopeful version is definitely like okay maybe this signal that something good is happening out there
another high quality highly rated polster marist just came out with their final national poll 51 47 Harris they are the other big high quality polster that does not wait by education or pass vote so there's something there's there's some split there and you know they'll find out
yeah we will find out but I will say I just want to be like even if the election results end up mirroring the kind of cascade of ties that will not mean that their approach was the correct one it will just mean that they they herded luckily correctly and we will run in in the next midterms
and the next presidential the same confounding what did these mean we will have no idea until the votes come in okay we're going to take a quick break but two things before we do that uh first reminder that we're going to be doing a show every day until the race is called uh what a what a day
as always is going to have a new episode in your feed every morning uh breaking down what you need to know in just 20 minutes the hosts of strict scrutiny and hysteria we'll be making appearances across the network to unpack breaking news so make sure you're following all these shows to get the very
latest and again uh votes have america shout out uh and request as you probably know mail-in ballots come in all the time with little mistakes like a missing signature uh and they can get thrown out if they aren't fixed that's why we need your help reaching these folks to correct or cure
their ballots that's what it's called by going to vote saver america.com slash cure and signing up to volunteer this is incredibly important this is like a signature issue wherever and they give you a chance to fix it and you know that there's like thousands of ballots that need caring usually and every state i think there's already a couple thousand in every and a bunch of the states where early votes come in and that can be the margin. Yeah this is the voter who voted who made a little
mistake and you can make sure their vote counts. Yeah yeah it's a reminder too that there's going to be work we're gonna have to like even if we get good numbers good results starting Tuesday night we have to be vigilant and there's gonna be work to do which we now and the moment common Harris is
inaugurate it. Yeah and of course again as we just heard from Tim Walsh you can call a friend you can reach out to friend taxa friend in swing states not in swing states just get people to vote in these last 24 48 hours this message has been paid for by votesave america you can learn more at votesavermerica.com this ad is not an authorized by any candidate or candidates committee we'll be right back. All right we're getting to the end here we settle along rather be us than
them you guys still feel like that's true. I think so. I would have had a different answer two weeks ago to be told the honest with you and now I feel hopeful because common Harris is closing strong
I think Trump has fumbled every bag he has been handed for 10 days now. Yeah I would rather be us than them it wouldn't have changed for me over the last couple weeks even with the Evan flow because this the push to replace Joe Biden with common Harris was just a bet on politics and we are practicing politics don't Trump is doing something else and I still would rather bet on politics.
Yeah I much rather be us I mean I think question is what are what are we talking about when people head into the voting booth and we are what the Trump campaign would want people to be thinking about when they head into the voting booth is Joe Biden whether or not you feel better off and four
years ago inflation immigration squirrels right yeah we're not talking about any of the things that we know the Trump campaign wants people to think about because it's in their ads and so now again maybe people have already decided and so that doesn't matter but they are not doing that at
the end and Trump's just saying crazy shit he's being off his rocker he has anyone who's just tuning into this whole thing think of what they have seen in the last week from Donald Trump and because it's maybe like well sometimes that works with people yeah that works with his base
but not people who are just turning it so and I think fundamentally if you're zooming out like she her coalition is relying on more reliable voters than his right and now his base is certainly reliable the turnout in the rural areas already early voters like through the roof but he's betting
on low propensity men to save the day for him and it could pay off but it's a it's a risky or bad yeah I just think about like I will out for me like the last week and a half has truly to me been about Trump and Joe Rogan versus Michelle Obama and I just think like Michelle Obama made a case
not just to people who are going to vote for Harris but for the people around those people right like for them to go to their husbands to go to their brothers and their sisters and to say please come with me I don't do Donald Trump has not given a message to his maga base or on that show that
says I know you're with me here's how to go get some other people he just has not done yeah all right before we sign off for the last time before results come in um while we're all in agonizing suspense we thought it'd be a good time to talk about what we've learned from this race
and any takes we feel confident about regardless of what happens on Tuesday I get I'll run through a couple quick and you pulling is broken hit that one candidates matter switching from Biden to Kamala is why we have a chance she has been an extraordinary candidate she took on the mantle
and she deserves so much praise for that no matter what happens and I am sure there will be plenty of recriminations if we were to lose and I just want to be on record saying that because I would like to not be a part of that there will be not a perfect campaign but if it required a
perfect campaign to defeat this fucking moron then America's got bigger fish to fry campaigns matter she ran a great campaign the bigger points to me are the full take over the Republican party by Trump is complete and the and I don't know what comes next for Republicans if Donald
Trump loses but we cannot forget what these people fucking did every single one who capitulated every single one who sold their souls for him they're not walking away from that we will remember the last piece to is because Kamala became the candidate late because of a lot of headwinds
around people being frustrated by the cost of living and anti-incumbency trend that is global it may not manifest in this election but there is and there's not just an anti-Trump coalition out there there is a pro-freedom pro-democracy economically populist coalition out there that we
can assemble we see that with Dan Osborne and the success he's had we see that with ballot measures across the country that movement that majority is there for us winner lose yeah I mean I think I totally agree that candidates matter a lot I think that if if this were Biden
versus Trump we would be on a path to you know Trump getting 400 electoral votes or more it would be very very bad yeah the good news there is there'd be less anxiety the last thing to be more batting down the hatches yeah more applying for passports other places I think also we
learned that abortion is not a secondary issue for people it's not a quote-a-quote social issue or one that declined in salience as we got further from dobs it's an issue where the results of the dobs decision became more and more prevalent in the stories became more personal and horrifying and
I think that drove voters there's been a lot of polling where you see an abortion tick up over the last few weeks in terms of its relevance I also think like there there was a very annoying kind of internet Twitter meme for a while when Trump would say something and people be like lol nothing
matters you know remember that and like sometimes that's true you know when you're in the kind of drags of an off year he can say something most people won't see it it won't matter and I also think that ultimately look the fact that we're here suggests that January 6th wasn't the career
ending event like it should have been but what he says it does matters on the margins I mean the Madison Square Garden Valley has hung with them yeah there's a univision pole of Pennsylvania Latino voters that found a lot of people personally offended by that joke the Killtony joke about
Puerto Rico 71% of respondents said the joke suggested there was racism in the Trump campaign in 53% think Trump is very disrespectful to Latinos so racism in the Trump campaign was yeah Nick Fuentes yeah I mean like the flip side to Joe Biden would be down to Trump we don't know
what it would be like right now if they had run a normal public in like Nikki Haley versus Biden but like Nikki Haley versus Kamala Harris like we don't know what it would look like that they had all the trends of anti-incomeancy all the anger at the economy all the all the anger at the
Biden administration behind a normal candidate running a strategic campaign I don't think we'd be pretty happy sitting here either yeah the divided country anything happen sucks that we got here but feeling better if she loses I think the explanation to me feels pretty straightforward which is that
voters who don't follow news closely who don't show up in every election we're still pissed about high prices and or at the border which is sort of the post pandemic malaise that has as you said love it just taken down incumbents all over the world and trading our very unpopular incumbent
for his vice president 90 days out from the election still wasn't quite enough to overcome that environment that I think if she loses that to me is the most likely explanation if she wins it is because the anti-magicalition that has turned out in every election since 16 to beat Donald
Trump and beat mega politicians did it again and it was fueled by women who were pissed about dobs and people and anti-magicalition very pissed about Donald Trump's threat to democracy and what Kamala Harris did which would be an incredible like history-making achievement is in 90 days
she reminded people of what's at stake and also defined herself in a way where she neutralized Donald Trump's advantage on the economy and on immigration just enough to make sure that that anti-magicalition could propel her to the White House and it's sort of why I'm like relatively calm
because I feel like we have done all we can yeah to make sure everyone who's paying attention knows the stakes and when I say we it's like the other the other thing that makes me sort of proud and happy at the end here is like the anti-magicalition got the assignment we were used to see that
the convention Kamala Harris had to walk the highest narrowest tightrope and you can count on one hand the number of times that she stumbled General Mali Dillon who was the Biden campaign chair and now Kamala Harris's chair in the entire Biden campaign who's now the Harris campaign plus
all the new people who joined they all got the assignment they did everything they could the left AOC and Bernie did everything they could Liz Cheney and the never-drunk Republicans did like the legacy media clearly covered the stakes a lot of people have convinced with the media but like
plenty articles out there about how what Donald Trump's planning to do if he wins again and so if people choose that then like that's what the country wanted and I don't believe that's what the country wants and I think that we can overcome that but that's I really I'm proud of everyone for
for pulling together and and doing everything we can to stop this guy yeah it's it's I will say to though even in that circumstance even with all of us doing everything we can if we lose I do think like well that be because this country wanted someone as awful and terrible as Donald Trump
with that because this country wanted tariffs and a national sales tax and mass deportations I think some people really want those things I think some people are pretending to believe he won't do those things are actually believe he won't do those things but I also do think that like
we we can't always lay at the feet of the Harris campaign or Democrats or even the media like what what it means for someone like Donald Trump to be anywhere close to the White House and those are deeper economic problems those are deeper social problems those are problems with social media
that will continue that we have to keep figuring out how to fight back against and it's true regardless of the outcome and that is true regardless of the outcome yeah that's our show for today tomorrow is election day if you can get away from work to help get people to the polls do that we're
going to record the show as late as we can tomorrow night to get the fullest picture we can Dan will be here too the whole gang we will release that show as soon as possible and as we mentioned we'll have a show every day until there's an official call stick with us hang in there
everybody go get every last vote and you know feel good yeah feel good everybody feel good but also nervous if you want to get ad free episodes exclusive content and more consider joining our friends of the pod subscription community at cricket.com slash friends and if you're already
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