In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, With interest rates are significantly higher than they were last year, this is a good time for savers to review their cash management strategies to ensure that they are maximizing the interest rates they are earning on their savings. This may involve shifting money to account types that pay higher yields, comparing the rates that are offered by different institutions, and ensuring that accounts are earning the highest amount offered ...
Mar 16, 2023•23 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The US inflation rate declined slightly in January as goods prices continued to decline but services prices climbed. This will likely cause the inflation focus to shift from goods to services going forward as service prices will need to decline for inflation to return to its longer-term average. Within the services category, the cost of shelter is significant given the large percentage of household spending that goes to paying for sh...
Mar 02, 2023•31 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is a high-frequency (updated weekly rather than monthly or quarterly) economic indicator that has a strong track record of predicting the pace of US economic growth. Currently, the WEI is forecasting slow economic growth but is not yet predicting a recession in 2023. However, the path of this index should be watched closely given the mixed economic signals from other data. Also, One of the new changes ...
Feb 16, 2023•32 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, Consumer prices have been in focus for the past several years as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported above-average increases in prices. However, what has been lost in this data is the even larger increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) which measures prices paid by businesses for raw materials. This has caused profit margins to be squeezed as input prices increased faster than end prices. However, this pressure appears to be d...
Feb 02, 2023•27 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, the passing of the Secure Act 2.0 has made several changes to the rules governing retirement accounts. Among these changes is the change in the Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) rules which extend the age at which retirement account owners will need to take distributions to age 73 in 2023. The Secure Act 2.0 also solidifies and expands the rules related to Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) which allows for direct contributi...
Jan 19, 2023•27 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, Foreign stocks have outperformed US stocks by 12% over the past two months. This represents a major shift from what has been a long and fairly consistent period of higher returns from US stocks. This recent shift in returns is partially explained by a weakening US dollar compared to other major currencies. However, foreign stocks also appear to offer more attractive valuations than US stocks at this time. Also, The pace of existing h...
Jan 05, 2023•22 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The US inflation rate declined to 7.1% in November, the fifth consecutive month of decline. While food and energy inflation remain high year-over-year, both show shorter-term improvement with the pace of the increase in food prices declining and energy prices dropping in four of the last five months. Meanwhile, services prices have increased, but not by enough to offset the weakness in goods prices, which is a positive sign that infl...
Dec 22, 2022•29 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The estimates of global economic growth have been revised several times in 2022 as the probability of a recession in the US within the next twelve months has increased to nearly 25%. It seems the best scenario is a period of very low economic growth, with the worst case is a period of economic contraction. However, this outlook for economic growth may already be reflected in market prices as investors may have incorporated these expe...
Dec 08, 2022•30 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The stock market surged on November 10th in response to a better-than-expected inflation report. This has caused some to question how stock prices can be considered rational when prices sometimes swing by such large amounts in one day. The answer relates to the fact that investors are forward-looking, so they are constantly anticipating the future. However, the time frame investors use to price investments often changes over time. Al...
Nov 24, 2022•28 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The high rate of inflation throughout 2022 has resulted in large adjustments to a number of areas of the US income tax code. The number of tax deductions, the levels for each income tax bracket, and the income levels of tax credits are all adjusted upward for 2023. This will produce little change in tax rates for those whose taxable income has kept up with inflation but will likely produce tax savings for those whose income has not i...
Nov 10, 2022•32 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, With the mid-term elections around the corner, there is a lot of noise about the risks that it could pose to the markets and the economy. Much of this is political rhetoric as both parties make their case for political power or attack the other in an attempt to get their base excited to vote. However, the data shows that midterm elections have not been the big political risk some are trying to make it out to be and, in fact, have led...
Oct 27, 2022•27 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The level of margin debt (money borrowed to invest in stocks) was at high levels in late 2021 creating a concern about the high level of short-term speculation in the stock market. However, since then, the amount borrowed to invest in stocks has declined sharply and is now in line with the long-term trendline. This could be a sign that the stock market is normalizing by correcting for some of the excesses that were built following th...
Oct 13, 2022•23 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The US stock market was unable to resume an upward trend in August as the market stalled out at the 200-day moving average trend line. Now the market is trading between its long-term trendline and the low for the year in mid-June. While these trends offer some indication of the market trends for the remainder of 2022 it is likely that important data such as Federal Reserve policy, economic data, and the upcoming earnings season will ...
Sep 29, 2022•27 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The recent executive order creating student loan forgiveness of $10,000 or $20,000 for most student loan borrowers has created more questions than it has answered. Over time we should get more information on how this will be administered and the steps that borrowers will need to take to apply. However, there are some changes to student loan repayment programs that have been made which may impact some borrowers and allow them to bette...
Sep 15, 2022•24 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The strong rebound in stock prices over the past two months has partially been due to short sellers reversing their bets against stocks. The short interest, the number of shares borrowed and sold, reached a high in mid-June but has since declined. Often when stock prices increase short sellers will engage in panicked buying as they rush to buy shares to repay the shares that they borrowed before the share prices increase further. Als...
Sep 01, 2022•30 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The US stock market has rebounded from its mid-June lows rallying 13% and cutting the losses for the year in half. However, the market is now nearing a key resistance line defined by the mid-March lows and the late-May/early-June highs. Should the market fail to push through this resistance level the lows from mid-June could be revisited. On the other hand, should the market push through this level the next point of resistance is 10%...
Aug 18, 2022•27 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, One of the themes of the stock market in 2022 has been the outperformance of value stocks over growth stocks. However, growth stocks have demonstrated a tendency to outperform value stacks when prices are trending upward as they have over the past six weeks. This may be a sign that growth stocks are more likely to lead market returns should the stock market recovery continue. Also, One of the themes of the stock market in 2022 has be...
Aug 04, 2022•24 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The second-quarter earnings season, in which companies report their results for the second quarter, will be picking up steam soon. The results will likely have a significant impact on stock returns for the remainder of the year as investors assess how companies are dealing with inflation, rising interest rates, and concerns about economic growth. In addition, the number and amount of negative earnings adjustments that are taken this ...
Jul 21, 2022•30 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, increasing oil prices have been a major contributor to the high inflation rates in the US. The increase in oil prices is due to a variety of factors, but the most important may be the oil investment cycle. This is the pattern of increased and decreased investment in new oil supply in response to high or low prices. The lag between when the investment is made and when oil makes it to market often results in large swings in prices as o...
Jul 07, 2022•29 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The S&P 500 entered bear market territory (defined as a 20% or greater decline from the previous high) in mid-June. The stock market is now very close to pricing in a recession which on average could be expected to lead to a 27% decline in stock prices. Therefore, even if the US economy were to go into a recession, the stock market may not have much further to fall. On the other hand, should the US economy avoid a recession the s...
Jun 23, 2022•30 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, the inflation breakeven rate is derived by comparing the interest rates paid on nominal Treasury bonds to the rates paid on inflation-protected Treasure bonds. It is a way for economists to gauge the inflation expectations of investors who are investing real money in these markets, as opposed to opinion surveys, making the inflation breakeven rate a historically more accurate gauge of future inflation. Recently this indicator has bee...
Jun 09, 2022•26 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, As high inflation continues to impact households and businesses, the different segments of the economy are pointing fingers at each other. Households blame government policy for overstimulating the economy last Spring, the government blames businesses for price gouging, and businesses blame households citing the low labor force participation rate that is putting upward pressure on wages. The trust is that each segment of the economy ...
May 26, 2022•30 min
In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, The stock market is currently testing a key level that could impact the performance of the market over the first six months of 2022. After declining in January, and then falling further in March, the stock market is now testing its lows from March. Should the market rebound in May it may create a double bottom which could be a positive sign going forward. However, if the market declines further, dipping below the March / April lows, ...
May 12, 2022•26 min
