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arm believes the future isn't about technology it's about people and the possibilities technology can offer us the future is built on arm you can discover more at arm.com slash discover I got to get dressed for Whoopi Goldberg. You know who's on right after me? Donny Osmond. Donny Osmond. That is literally, literally, just when I thought your flexes couldn't get any weaker, you're bragging about that?
Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. How you doing, Scott? I just saw you last night when we were together. Yeah. What a thrill. It was fun. Did you like it? They love us together there on Anderson Cooper. Oh, on AC. I like AC and I like CNN and they do a good job. He's a real pro. I love kind of seeing how the sausage gets made. Anyway, we had a beautiful time and it was very nice to see you.
Very good to see you. Nice to see you. We've seen a lot of each other with South by Southwest. We have. We've been hanging. We've been rolling. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Are you tired of me? No. I mean, I was tired of you years ago, but no more tired of you, I should say. That's what I felt. Yeah.
You know, it's nice to see you. I always enjoy seeing you. Last night, literally, we went to dinner and George and I just like leaned back and let you and Jess go at it. Yeah, I like her. She's unusually tall. I didn't realize that until she got up. oh really yeah she's i think she played basketball in high school yeah she's a tall gal anyway are you tired i made scott come early to work today because i'm going on the view
I'm convinced for guys, being tall is like big tits. Like a woman just gets a natural amount of attention if she has a large. It's so true. Think about it. Okay. If a woman has big boobs, she just gets an unnatural amount of attention and I think it's the same for a guy if he's tall.
I think height is the new boobs for men. You know how you get a lot of attention? You jump up and down at a stage in Austin. I have had that picture sent to me. Oh, that was magic. So many times. That was comedy gold. TV. My favorite thing was you just finally gone. The audience really responded when you said, sit down. Yeah, I know, but I was sitting there going, sit down, sit down. I've gotten that picture sent to me.
Like, what is going on here? Yeah, just giving the ladies a little bit of daddy, a little bit of dessert, a little bit of dessert with their South by South with their chicken fajitas with queso, a little dog, a little topping of the dog. Chicken fajitas with queso. Okay. No, they didn't want that. They didn't want that.
No, I don't think so. But I did get that picture sent to me and asked me what was happening. And I said, a typical day in the life of Pivot. Here's what makes you funnier or more comfortable with being unfunny. Just the recognition. We're all going to be dead soon. That's right. Okay. Yeah. It just takes away all fear. Let me think. I'm comfortable with being unfunny. Interesting.
Interesting. Yeah, well, comfortable being unfunny trying to be funny. Like taking risks, right? Right, that's true. It's like a lot of times, as anyone who listens to this show will know, a lot of my jokes don't land. And here's the thing, anyone not laughing, you're going to be dead soon and so am I.
Okay. Well, those pictures will endure. That's the good thing. That's definitely some therapy for my voice. Death decisions are the metaphor of my life. You know that. That's what I always do when I'm deciding what to say and do. Yeah, we've both had, well, you had obviously a health scare and you lost a parent very young. I'm a raging atheist. I think a...
Like a very real sense of the finite nature of life is an absolute blessing. I think it really is. As you know, that's Steve Jobs' essay that he did. Actually, it was a speech that he did at Stanford. I read all the time. I recommend it to everybody. It's all about... About denying your daughter on her oath to avoid child support payments? No, that is not. Let's pretend he's Jesus Christ because he made a fucking phone.
No, he didn't invent the phone. You're part of the acolytes. By the way, I just want to call it out. I disliked Elon well before you. That is true. You used to be a defender. Yeah, I did.
You're right. I agree with you. I did. Well, I was mostly attracted to that he was focused on important things versus I was so tired of people. You know, you're right. I was. There's no way out of it. There was. There was. But I think I'm more than made up for it. I feel like I'm more than made up for it. Yeah, you're catching up.
I know. I'm catching up. Anyway, we got a lot to get to today. I'm in New York, as I said. I'm picking up my mom. And then I'll go back down to Washington. I've been in Washington for a little while. But we have a lot to get to today because Washington is where the...
action today is because of the market chaos from the Trump tariffs and the Tesla stunt at the White House, the car sale at the White House. We've got a lot to talk about. But first, Amazon announced this week that seven seasons of Donald Trump Trump's reality show The Apprentice will soon be streaming on Prime Video. This follows Amazon paying a reported $40 million to license a Melania, not even own, license a Melania Trump.
documentary. Trump's cut of the new streaming deal hasn't been revealed, but he was an executive producer on the show and he actually is well compensated when it was shown. Netflix also just made a deal with Tony Hinchcliffe. comedian who sparked controversy with that racist joke at Trump rally last October about Puerto Ricans.
Talk to me about this. I watched all these seasons of The Apprentice. I'm kind of like, I can see why you would buy this because he's the president. He's popular with half the country. I like the show, so I kind of get it. I'm surprised that it wasn't available widely. I don't recall looking for it, and I don't know why you'd watch it again necessarily. Tony Hinchcliffe, I get.
invest in all these things like this going forward. And they're going to be behind the times because the ones you want to get are the Bill Burrs or whatever, which they already have, of course. But what do you think of these programming moves? I think comedians doing really well is really important.
sides of the aisle and so good for him good for is it netflix that's bringing him on yeah who is it yeah the thing that's more troubling is the following there's nothing wrong with if amazon decides uh in terms of programming to bring on whatever shows they want from the past that help cement their value proposition. The problem is that, okay, we have what appears to be Amazon paying overpaying for the Melania Trump documentary. Absolutely. In that case, yes.
We have Jeff Bezos giving a million dollars the inaugural campaign and under what feels like duress. We have also a kind of strange ironic timing where the owner, the same guy of the Washington Post, has decided they don't need to have an opinion section.
feels very, very, quite frankly, like he's acquiescing to pressure from Trump. So the problem is, is that if we end up in a situation where every person in power starts to take, if you will, kind of soft bribes in exchange for possibly exonerating. that company from certain regulation or tariffs. One of the reasons India has not, quite frankly, kept pace with China. 20 years ago, most analysts would have said, half of analysts.
20, 30 years ago would have said the next enormous growth economy, half would have said China, half would have said India. India is a democracy, English speakers, huge emphasis on education, strong with tech. It wasn't immediately obvious that China was going to absolutely. crush India in terms of growth. But here's one of the big problems with India. It is wildly fucking corrupt.
And local officials and politicians extract a lot of unfair rents from businesses, which makes everyone less competitive and creates incentives for more and more corruption. China, on a regular basis. Finds corrupt officials and business people and executes them. Probably not the right way to go, but they are very serious about corruption and that creates more robust, competitive.
We are headed more towards India right now than we have been in the past. Yeah. I was not expecting this, this India move. This is really interesting. I would agree. This is... The Melania thing is such, it feels like such grift. I mean, they don't own it. The money is ridiculous. They're not going to get the watching out of it. I mean, it's...
It's whack. It's a bribe. That felt like a bribe. The Washington Post thing certainly did, and it continues to do. By the way, they lost their very excellent head of public relations, their communications, Laptuser. a pro. So many people are leaving there. Ruth Marcus, also a columnist, great columnist, one of their most popular columnists left.
spiked a piece that was mild at best, which she published in The New Yorker. She's been there forever. She was there when I was at The Washington Post. The Apprentice, I'm going to say it's reasonable enough. decision, I guess, for that one. But you're right. It looks like payments to Donald Trump in some fashion or ways to get an advantage with him in some way.
Especially Amazon, all told. Don't forget, this is the guy that essentially opened a Swiss bank account that any foreign entity could deposit money into and only Donald Trump. gets the receipts and knows what is going into that bank account and it's called the trump coin he basically set up the ultimate vessel for quiet off off record bribes. And where do we go? A lot of Republicans will claim, and I think there's a real argument here,
Scott, we're just less opaque about it than Democrats. We cut out the middlemen of lobbyists and of special interest groups and of people giving speeches. Oh, they get that too. What are you talking about? theoretically, it's a fair argument. And this is where I just want to bust the solutions. I think the right solution here is Singapore. And that is...
I believe every congressperson and every senator should be paid a million to $3 million a year. I think the president should be paid $10 million a year. But in exchange for that, there is absolutely zero, zero. Corruption, no speeches, no payments, can't work for a lobbyist for five years after you get out of office, no trading of stocks, just fucking nothing. Because the incentives here are unfortunately, I'm a very powerful person.
And I don't make enough money to have a home back in Newport Beach and in D.C. And the incentives are, quite frankly, just to kind of... File with the ethics committee. Maybe they say, oh, you're not supposed to trade stocks. The penalties are really low. We have to have a zero tolerance for this and dramatically increase their compensation. Yeah, I think that's a great idea. I do. You know, it's what I was sort of yelling about last week is that they're not.
getting their advantage through innovation and products they're getting their advantage through access and that's a bad sign it's a bad sign for an industry it's a bad sign that this is where they're putting their focus and not on on what they're making. And it just, it looks like, you know, pigs at the trough is what happens. Anyway, it's not a surprise, but I'll be interested to see how the apprentice does. Actually, I really like the apprentice.
the program, although I knew it was all cooked. It was like watching wrestling. And apparently he was handed every single remark he made on The Apprentice. People who worked there told me that. I never watched The Apprentice. I never saw it. I don't know how it would be interesting now.
such a throwback. I'm going to watch a couple of them to see because I did watch them all and I really enjoyed them at the time. But then when you go back and watch things you used to watch, you're like, how in the world did I ever watch that? Like Three's Company. Go do that for a little test for yourself and you'll be like, oh my God, this is not keeping up. Come and knock on our door. I love that, yeah.
The running joke was that the guy was supposed to be gay. Yes, it was so offensive. It was incredibly homophobic, pretty sexist, and yet you still really liked John Ritter. Yeah, you did. Anyway, don't watch that show. You won't feel good. I don't think you can get it. Maybe Amazon will buy it. You know what show disappointed me the most when I went back? My favorite show, speaking of an obsession with death, my absolute favorite show, no joke, was Six Feet Under.
Did you ever watch that on HBO? Of course they did, yeah. I remember thinking, this is such incredible creative. I thought almost every show, it made you really feel something. And then it came back on, I think, AMC or something with commercial breaks. And it just absolutely ruined it. And you recognize it was the first time I thought people don't realize that streaming is a real advantage.
is no commercials that storytelling is so much easier when every nine to eleven but that's what's so amazing about modern family as they they imagine they're able to keep the thread Even though they have to interrupt it every 11 minutes with medication telling you you have restless legs. I know. I have a hard time with ads now. It's weird when I see them on the show. I was up late last night watching Hobbs and Shaw, but they kept having...
commercials and I didn't know what to do. I was like, what do I do now? Why am I waiting for this? Anyway, speaking of things that are perplexing to me, and I know Jess yesterday liked it, but I have a new argument against what she said. California Governor Gavin Newsom. had none other than Steve Bannon on his podcast.
The two kept up a reasonably friendly tone and Newsom didn't push back when Bannon claimed Trump won the 2020 election. He did the same with Charlie Kirk and Michael Savage and things they said that were just absolute nonsense lies, really, essentially. And didn't mention, for example, Kirk's. He has a wide range of terrible things he said that are really...
just awful. Their hour-long conversation was mostly focused this abandoned one on economic issues and areas of common ground. One of those areas, Elon Musk. Let's listen to a clip. Forgive me, but what's his end game? I mean, look, he wants to be the first trillionaire in the world. I mean, what's his end game here? Well, you know it. You guys, you created him, Governor. I mean, you guys- By the way, in many respects, California did.
It was our regulatory process and our subsidies to create this market. You're 100% right. I think you're right. Newsom isn't the only one making podcasts this week. Former First Lady Michelle Obama has launched a video podcast with Obama's media company, Higher Ground. It's with her brother. The podcast IMO, which will focus on... it's in my opinion, on Thoughtful Conversations About Life, is co-hosted with her brother, Craig Robinson. The Newsome one, I...
And I texted him about it. I had a lot of problem with because I understood his need to talk across the aisle with people. First of all, there's a lot of people he could talk to that don't constantly lie. And his first three guests are really problematic in that.
regard but if you're going to do that you have to like address the real differences and not debate them but point them out factual inaccuracies and his sort of jocular tone is not I found it, I feel like it's just a political, he's doing it only for politics and to reach out to MAGA. uh voters perhaps i i was i'm perplexed by the entire endeavor um and and said so to him uh what are your thoughts i think it's really smart
I know you think that. Really smart. Hey, look, first off, first off, it's super important that we mix. It's super important that people from the right and the left, I'd love to see.
a giant i'm gonna go back i'm as always i like to read everything in a personal parable that's kind of kind of relevant adjacent i was president of the interfraternity council which is like king of the jarheads back at ucla i was quote unquote head of the governing body that oversaw the greek system and my big idea it was a time when there was a lot of tension between the fraternities which were mostly most obviously all male mostly white
And we used to have these stupid theme parties that were racist and it would inflame special interest groups who saw us and the administration that saw us as an easy target. And the paper was always talking about what awful people we were. Some of it deserved.
And my big idea was like, let's take the Black Students Alliance and METCHA, which was the Latino group, and let's all get together and have beers or get together and play sports together, but let's mix. And of course, like, we want nothing to do with you fucking weirdos. But I think it's really important that people from different political views get together. I think it creates empathy with one another. Now, what you're saying is to let's just say Biden was not.
Biden did not win the 2020, that requires a more honest, hard pushback that says, OK, what evidence actually do you have of that? And you're saying you didn't do that. But in terms of just strategically for Governor Newsom. It's super smart. He's leveraging a new medium. He's going after new voters. He's meeting voters and people where they are on podcasts. And also, the tension and the conflict, that's part of the reason this show is successful. We're not politically.
aligned on a lot of things. And the fact that he can talk about stuff, he, one, shows it's smart. Two, he appeals to moderates. Three, Three, he's very good going kind of, I don't want to say behind enemy lines. I think if he wants to be president, which I believe he does, America is going to want someone that they think at the end of the day can sit down with people from pretty far differing perspectives.
and have a reasonable conversation. And he's showing that. All right. Perspectives, different perspectives. I agree. I think that's fine. I think that's great. But let me just read. Oliver Darcy wrote a column that I thought was perfect, actually. The harm, of course, isn't just that Newsom is failing to challenge his guests as they lie about important topics to a sizable audience. It's that he's actively contributing to the normalization. Thank you.
deliberate deceptions, dangerous lies, and hostility towards basic democratic principles. By inviting them onto his show without seriously challenging their rhetoric, Newsom has introduced these dishonest figures to new audiences, and he's done it while portraying them as serious voices who deserve respect and consideration. Now he also goes on, I'm going to finish this part, is.
Newsom's friendly approach also represented a possible missed opportunity. Real dialogue across political divides can have value, but only when there's actual accountability. Hard-hitting questioning, challenging of false narratives, and yes, fact-checking would have made for interesting sh-
Imagine how Jon Stewart or Jon Oliver would have interrogated the positions of these far right wing personalities. Had Newsom engaged in this style of interview, his podcast would have served a valuable purpose, exposing rather than amplifying dishonest media.
figures, it would have been far more interesting than watching him bro it up with MAGA World. And he did come to the same conclusion. It's a move that frankly suggests he values his own political future more than holding some of the world's most toxic media figures accountable. for their corrosive impacts on society. In a sense, this podcast revealed quite a lot about his character that he's willing to do in the pursuit of power. I really hate to say that, but I would agree with that.
I don't see a plus. You know I like when there's debates across things, but these are unreliable and disingenuous people that are doing things to advantage. stories that aren't true. And this is what Jess and I argued about when you guys were staring at us, because you spend all your time solving the lie.
And then you don't actually have a discussion. Yeah. I mean, I hear that. And I'm like, let's clutch our pearls a little harder. It's not a clutch pearls. Oh, yeah, it is. For God's sakes. Steve Bannon served, was a senior advisor to the president. Yeah, and a liar. Okay, let me be clear. I don't like the man. He said publicly that Trump's administration should sue me. I do not want Steve Bannon to be successful. He had a very senior role in the previous administration. He is very smart.
And he says some batshit crazy things. The problem here was that Governor Newsom should have been able and been more prepared to really push back and say, what you said here makes no sense. Can you please tell us what your thinking is? But we absolutely need more. OK, the platform argument, you don't give Alex Jones.
a platform. You don't give the Tate brothers a platform. I said to Pierce Morgan when I was on the show, I'm like, why do you bring this guy on? You're just adding legitimacy, having him sit next to you on TV. Guys like Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon. Look, Democrats, get over it. And by the way, I would like to see a lot of these crazy, you know, a lot of the more right podcasters bring on AOC. And the thing, you're a great interviewer. Governor Newsom.
is not. And what you are able to do is the following, and you guys have to thread a very fine needle, and that is people aren't going to come on and be made a fool of. and get into a shouting match so you have to show a little bit of respect and at the end of the day if they keep lying you have to say okay i don't believe that's true
But you move on and you try to be hospitable and a good host and present people in their best light. And I think he erred on the side of not pushing back where he probably should have. But I think this is a really healthy thing. I think we need more of this. I like when Pete Buttigieg goes on Fox News. I like when Newsom was doing that. You know when he did a good job? Ron DeSantis. That was a really interesting debate because he pushed back.
thoughtfully. I don't mind pushing thoughtful discussions. In fact, a lot of journalists have interviewed Steve Bannon. I get it. I get why you should do it. The jocular stuff and pretending those things, these people specifically specifically do these things as a way to manipulate people. They aren't doing it. They're doing it not because of their beliefs. They're doing it to tickle.
MAGA in some way. And I just think if you are going to do this, then act like you did with Ron DeSantis. Show some preparation. I don't expect him to be a journalist, but I don't expect him to pretend. This never happened. And that's what these things are. It was how he handled the interview, not whether he should have done it or not. I don't think he shouldn't. What I do think he should do is do the job he did before. And I was perplexed as to why it was like.
All joking. All joking. Oh, don't we all get along? And I think some of these people, particularly Bannon, is I think about whether I would do an interview with them or not. And as part of me, I think I made the joke. Is it good to ask, because he's warring with Musk, so everyone's like, oh, you should talk to him. I don't know if that's enough common ground to really...
have anything that's thoughtful in any way because you're constantly spending your entire interview fixing the lie and then the conversations about the lie versus actual policy debate. But even that... even that i've been asked or so one of the shows we go on a lot the the sometimes i the panelists i think like i just can't keep up with the stream of falsehoods i'm not going to be able to respond without without fact checking real time.
But even what you said, I think is valuable to say, look, so much of what you're saying does not sound right. And we can't, and there's so much of it that we can't keep up with fact checking. I think even that's a fair statement to say, you're just flooding the zone. like you're flooding the zone with non-truths.
But really good interviews are able to say, well, actually, I think of when this fairly famous venture capitalist who moved from San Francisco to Miami and started shitposting California long enough such that he could get a reduction. capital gains when he sold a stock, went on CNBC and started basically lying about the earnings of Opendoor, basically saying it was profitable when it wasn't.
fact checked in real time. She's like, no, you can't say this company is profitable. It's not. She was so prepared or there was a producer in her ear going, that's not true. Push back on that. She essentially real time said, our viewers, I don't want you to lie to our viewers.
over and over. We're talking about people's wealth and stock trades. And two or three times she would stop him and say, that's just not true. With politics, it's harder because some of it is subjective, right? I mean, but if you're going to say, like you said, the election...
I mean, that to me is just a softball. Like, please show me the evidence that contradicts the 62 court cases where the judges, including Republican appointed judges and Trump appointed judges, said there was no evidence of election fraud. That's all I wanted. That's essentially, when he did the DeSantis, when he goes on Fox, I don't think he's hostile. I think he's having a great conversation, actually. I don't think he's like, gotcha. I just was like, what happened to that, Gavin?
Like, what in the world happened? And when he announced this, I thought, great idea. You do very well in those environments, and the conversations must be had. But this was, I just don't know what he's up to here, because it's not the guy who goes. on Fox News. It's not the guy who wades into
you know, people he disagrees with. I do know California does need this funding from the Trump administration. I see that he has to be a little more solicitous of these people. But at the same time, and he kind of wants to denuter them. before he runs. And so he doesn't get all the flack that they will inevitably aim at the next Democratic.
presidential nominee speaking of the apprentice i asked my master if i shave my ass does that mean i'm gay and he says he who is cleaning his house is expecting visitors oh that's wrong
That's really, that's awful. I kind of like that. That's perfect. That's my way of saying we need to segue out of this story. We do, I do. But I do wish he had done what he had done with DeSantis and others, and he's not doing that here. You got the last word. This is called our relationship. You got the last word. have left-wing figures he disagrees with. Anyway, apparently they won't go on. He told me they won't go on. Yes, I know. Get AOC on and Bernie. No, she'd kick his...
Plus, can you imagine the two of them together? Oh, my God. Don't you just hope they both get naked and go at it? No, I don't. No, I don't in any way. I pay cash money to see Governor Newsom and Representative Ocasio-Cortez. You know how to get me out of a conversation. by making a ridiculous remark about the sexiness. Oh God. And you know what I want?
I would want them to have 40 or 50 kids. They'd become my army and we'd take over Australia. And I would be the general consulate of Australia. People would love me, Kara. They would have pharmacued you on the outback by then. You would have been gone on the outback. Okay, Scott. Take a quick break. Now you know how to get me out of a conversation. When we come back, Trump's chaotic tariffs. Support for Pivot comes from LinkedIn.
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The EU and Canada announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on Wednesday after President Trump's levies on steel and aluminum went into effect. The markets continue their roller coaster ride, fluctuating with all the tariff pivots.
speaking of pivots, which you and I called red light, green light on Anderson Cooper last night, but steadying slightly with positive inflation report, but people are still expecting inflation to rise. I'll note we're recording this Thursday morning, so Trump may change his mind. on tariffs several more times before our listeners hear this. We'll get into recession concerns, which I'm calling Trump session in a bit. But what do you think will happen?
What do you think about these tariffs over the last few days? Are markets overreacting or are they getting it right? The Wall Street Journal reported on a closed-door gathering of CEOs this week at the Business Roundtable where an impromptu poll was taken about the economy. Oh, this was the Jeffrey... Sonnenfeld won. 22% said stocks would have to fall 30% before they would take a stand.
Jamie Dimon finally did after saying Trump's get over it on the tariffs is now saying this is a bad thing. Start with tariffs. First off, I think Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a gift and he wrote a fantastic opinion piece about how some of these corporate leaders.
who claim to be leaders and claim to care about America need to speak up. And there haven't been that many. And congratulations to Jamie for kind of stepping into the void and saying what's on everybody's mind. I think you're going to see more of it. Look, tariffs are the following. They're not universally bad.
if china is charging a tariff on our cars we get to charge a tariff on their cars until we both decide to lower tariffs free trade creates prosperity you can also probably need a tariff to support certain strategic industries, we probably should have some level of domestic production of steel in case those supply chains are shut down and we need to build tanks or what have you. But when, for example, these aluminum and steel tariffs...
We tried that in the last Trump administration, and what they found is the following. That, okay, let's assume that the additional revenue created by the tariffs, let's assume that the additional revenue captured by Cleveland Cliffs and U.S. Steel are two largest remaining...
Steel manufacturers, their market, their products become more competitive because foreign steel is more expensive. So they get more share, more money, more tax revenue, more jobs. All right, theoretically, it all works. Here's the problem. One, consumers. Prices get increased. Consumers have to pay up to six, eight, $12,000 more for a truck with these tariffs, which takes down the demand, which takes down the gross profits of the domestic supplier.
because their products are more expensive relative to other people's products because we have to increase our input costs. There is a reciprocal tariff almost always, meaning that our products become more expensive overseas. And what you found with the aluminum and steel... tariffs is that the increase in the cost of steel made that so many products across America had to increase their prices because steel and aluminum were big inputs, that the increase in prices reduced demand much more.
than the incremental income gains from the companies that benefit from their products being more competitive. In some, in almost every case, tariffs don't work. And if you look at what companies do thousands of times a year across the market. They are perfectly trying to calibrate. Nike is perfectly trying to calibrate.
volume times gross margin and figure out the exact peanut butter and chocolate combination for shareholders. All right, if we sold, if we lowered our prices and took our margins down from 30 points to 10 points, we'd double our volume, but we'd end up with less profit.
perfectly attempt or attempt to perfectly calibrate across every market what is the optimal price relative to volume, relative to margin. And when the government comes with tariffs, what they're saying is, hey, company, you're stupid. We could take prices up and it wouldn't hurt demand.
And it never works out that way. It usually suppresses demand and revenues in a much greater volume or amount than the increase in revenues. It makes us less competitive. It makes us less productive. And it increases costs. If you're looking for an elegant way. to increase consumer costs while reducing productivity and demand across our products in foreign markets? Congratulations. This is supersizing Brexit. This is the most elegant, efficient way to reduce American prosperity.
Abso-fucking-lutely no sense. Sorry, here's a period. Boom, boom. Professor Galloway gives you his lecture in class. Even worse than this? Even worse than this, even worse than the tariffs. If he said, all right, I'm putting a 10% tariff on everything from China, American companies could go, okay, this is stupid, whatever, but he gets to make this decision. But they could plan. They could say, okay, the cost of our shoes.
in our cars is about to go up 12 or 15 percent, we estimate that demand will fall by this and we can adjust and plan for this. But here's what's even worse than these ridiculously stupid tariffs is the uncertainty. means that foreign and domestic suppliers can't plan their goddamn business. When we were at South by Southwest, a lot of the digital media companies who were off to a great start of the year...
Right? The lack of uncertainty because, okay, we know Trump's in office. We think we sort of know what to expect. Let's get back to business and start spending money. 2025 started great for digital media companies dependent upon consumer advertising.
Now, their quarter has been blown because some of the biggest advertisers in America, including automobile companies, have all said the following. We have no fucking idea what's going on. So we're doing nothing. They have told their media planners until. there's more clarity, stop spending money. And the lack of certainty, the lack of consistency as a trading partner means
Every large organization and company in the world is trying to reconfigure their supply chain to be less dependent upon America, which means less money for America. The terrorists are bad. The uncertainty is even worse. Oh, wow. That was a. I just felt like it was macroeconomics back in college right now. That was a macroeconomics professor. Thank you, Professor Galloway, for that.
cogent analysis. It sucks, is what I would say. Now, come by my office hours and I'll help you on the hard parts. No, no, don't do that. Don't do that. That's wrong. No, that's wrong. That's wrong. That's wrong. Listen, I will give a much shorter thing. I was on the Amtrak train when the people were coming back from the...
Business Roundtable to New York. All of them were insulting Trump, every one of them, even if they don't speak out. They all said, what a fucking idiot, this uncertainty sucks. They were all insulting it and saying, what do we do now? Because they talk too loud on an Amtrak train, all these men. They were all men. And then one woman. And then secondly, a CEO of a very big...
public company that is going to be affected by tariffs, and I'm not going to say what it is. I said, what are you going to do now? What are you going to do now? And he said, pass it on to consumers. And I was like, thought so. Right. And so it is going to hurt his business. He was like, I'm going to have to pass along to consumers. There's no other way. And it's going to affect his business across the globe. Absolutely. And it was like.
We don't know what to do, so we're going to do anything. It's going to affect everyone, along with the cuts in government, the sort of non-scalpel-like cuts in government, which would hearten people, the across-the-board cuts where you don't know where it's going to happen with crazy Elon with a chainsaw. Same thing.
Nobody knows because there's, you know, it's interesting because the Department of Education cuts. Everyone's like, oh, it's not useful. They mostly have privatized much of their research and studies and stuff that's actually somewhat useful to know if things work or not.
different testing and things like that. That's all been privatized, so that's going to have second and third order effects, and mostly across the country, not in Washington. Although Washington is also going to be affected, so the effects are everywhere. So that's why there's been a lot of talk of recession lately, which I call a Trump session. I'm going to keep saying that word until it catches on, like Bidenomics.
Though Trump is dancing around that language. Let's listen to what he told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo earlier this week. By the way, Kara Swisher is not a fan of Maria Bartiromo when asked about the possibility of a recession. I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing. And there are always periods of...
It takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us. This issue has been a real hair up his ass, the idea that tariffs will work. He's way back in the Smoot-Hawley days. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had a different take on tariffs and recession in an interview with CBS News. Let's listen. These policies are the most important thing America has ever had. So it is worth it.
It is worth it. A, I don't think the only reason there could possibly be a recession is because of the Biden nonsense that we had to live with. These policies produce revenues. So you're saying when it looks chaotic. and unpredictable from the outside that there actually is a master plan when it comes to these tariffs? It is not chaotic. And the only one who thinks it's chaotic is someone who's being silly.
Oh my God, he's such a clown. The most important thing in American history, it's our decision to, at huge cost, risk to our young men, risk to our economy, turning... turning washing machine factories into tank factories overnight. We decided for the second time to enter into World War II and push back on fascism. Oh, we decided that this incredible prosperity and rights should be extended to not civil rights. Oh.
I'm sorry, but these fucking tariffs are the most important thing America's ever done. I know. I mean, you just lose so much credibility when you say that. And this is so chaotic. I don't even know the status of the tariffs right now.
And I follow this shit. I know now know why this guy is not respected on Wall Street when he opens his mouth. He's such a clown. He's a suck up to Trump because he's finally relevant. He goes around talking about his best friends to Trump in Washington, all over the place. He is. the thirstiest public official I've ever seen. And it's because he's not beloved on Wall Street.
And secondly, he's spewing nonsense, just nonsense out of his mouth. You know who's the big winner here is China. You know what China? China has literally deployed. dozens if not hundreds of their diplomats to the biggest European and Latin American companies. And they've said the following, you may not love us, but you can count on us. Where we like trade, we like commerce, and we do what we say. And you know what you're dealing with, with us.
You've been buying all this produce or products or finished products or whatever it might be from the U.S. You have no idea how to plan and what to expect from these folks. You can count on us. This is the deal. We are open for business. We love commerce. We are a dependable, consistent partner. Or even not China. Canada is going to do more business with me. This is literally a gift.
to every major economic power that had to compete against America. What they're saying is America is not competitive because you can't believe what they say. And the greatest level of damage here isn't even going to show up in the short term. Goldman Sachs already took their GDP prediction from 25 down from 2.4 to 1.7. It'll be the long-term impacts of when people reconfigure their supply chain and their relationships, they're going to be somewhat like remiss to re-engage again.
This is going to be a structural step down in our credibility across our largest trading partners. And trade, no doubt, if you don't. If you don't think about who gets really hurt, you can end up with a really difficult situation. And that's where America, America's been really good on trade. Where we're bad is helping out and showing empathy for the people who get, quite frankly, who are on the wrong end of that. But on the whole.
prosperity just grows. We just continue to see that economically. Over time and people, when they stop buying our products, not because they might they might be the most competitive in a year, but they're like, we don't know what's going to happen in the next year or two years. So do you think a recession is likely at this point? Because, again, with this fell in charge, I mean, I'm thinking.
Peter Raimondo is so smart and this guy is so dumb, like actually dumb. I think when macroeconomics was taking place, he was the one sleeping behind me, the dude sleeping on the desk behind me. That's what it feels like. He's not paying attention.
to almost any obvious thing. And you're right. When we did some of these trade deals, we didn't think of the effects here enough and figured out how to retrain and get people into new jobs and things that were more competitive and figure out what advancement. manufacturing we could do here with our population and et cetera, et cetera. This is an opportunity for China. So do you, you know, and the second thing is people worried about their 401ks and portfolios during this volatility.
I mean, do you think there's going to be a recession, very briefly? And then what would you say to people with the stock market? Warren Buffett looks like a genius. Tariffs suck. I'm in cash. look who looks like he is the goat he should become or he should be president but anyway like economists i don't consider myself like an economist but quote-unquote academics have predicted nine of the last three recessions it's very hard to tell because
You could have AI finally get real traction in the economy and massively increase productivity, which results in economic growth that overcompensates for these ridiculous tariffs. And we have a tendency to sometimes... overestimate the power of the president and his policies on this unbelievable engine called the American economy that usually over the medium and long term sort of figures out a way. So I think it's dangerous to predict.
predict a recession. What was your second question, Karen? What would you do? You know, you're in the stock market. Just leave it alone. The only thing I would consider is the following. And that is, this stat just blew my mind. If you add in corporate debt, so people have heard that the market capitalization of US stocks now represents 50% of total equity value globally, which is extraordinary.
But if you add in corporate debt, because the enterprise value of a company is its market cap, say $100 million, plus if it has $50 million in debt, the market is saying that this company is worth $150 million because we're giving it $100 million in equity value despite the fact it also owes $50 million. worth $150 million. If you add in all corporate debt and the world is worth $100, America costs $70 right now.
And the rest of the world, sans the U.S., costs $30. So if someone said to you, Kara Swisher, you can either buy America for $70 or the rest of the world for $30. You'd buy the rest of the world. You'd buy the rest of the world.
doing is the following first off i think you're always invested in the markets don't try and time them you are not warren buffett and when people predict a recession oftentimes the market goes up 20 or 30 percent and also you have to take into account whether you're going to trigger a taxable gain on your a taxable event on your income gains. What I would suggest, and this is not financial advice, but what I am doing, 70 versus 30.
I am pulling money out of the U.S. and I'm putting into low-cost, diversified index funds in non-U.S. markets. Because while index funds will diversify you, if you're just in an S&P or a NASDAQ index fund, you're actually not that diversified because typically when the market...
get this expensive in America, for the next five or 10 years, you have 0% returns. European stocks haven't been this cheap in a long time. American stocks haven't been this expensive in a long time. So what I would say is, one, I don't think you should...
Go to cash. I just don't think you can time the markets. But what I would suggest is thinking about diversifying across geographies, not just asset classes. Yeah. Excellent. Excellent advice. Professor Galloway. This was a very professorial. I used to fall asleep in macroeconomics. That meth I did this morning. I was like this. I used to do that. It was at 8.10 in the morning. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. We'll be back to chat about Trump and Elon hawking Teslas at the White House.
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a fleet of Teslas to the White House. The president had a cheat sheet of notes, and kudos to that photographer who got that picture in his hands while praising the company. Let's listen to what he thought when he sat in one of the cars. And by the way, he hates... EVs. He said he actually hates EVs. He doesn't drive, et cetera, et cetera. So this was why this was precious. This is a different panel than I've had. Everything's computer. Oh my God, he hasn't ever been inside. A-a-a car?
In like a long time. I mean, a car looks like that. Tesla stock is down 26% in the last month at the time of the taping. It had a bump from Trump, but most people, there were two analyst reports showing that Tesla's in real trouble. that are taking the stock price down quite considerably, although it's hard to bet against Tesla because of like stunts like this. Scott, did you know that there's a computer in a Tesla? I just, what the fuck?
What do you think of this stunt? Look, we have a bias, but this to me just seemed fucking ridiculous. that the president of the United States would decide to do an infomercial for one brand and not all other American brands. It's one thing if he and the commerce secretary were to stand in front of a bunch of American-made EVs, including Tesla. I think Biden screwed up not including Tesla.
the EV summit. That was punitive the other way. That was playing favorites the other way. But when you basically do one of these bad local, you know, I'm crazy, Bob, come down to Bob's. Ford and Lincoln Mercury for a crazy deal. No percent down, whatever. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I was joking that you can lease to own America for $285 million. It's just...
This is stupid and goes back to the notion that this kind of shit should not be allowed. It reflects poorly on America. It reflects poorly on Trump. And the thing I don't get about... Musk, who obviously has such an unbelievable feel for business, is that 75% of Republicans say they would never buy an EV. If he was just purely, quote unquote, economically driven, which I think he is, I think he would have... gone blue pill.
Because the marketplace, I always use an example. We talked about this. When Nike went political, it was a smart move because they tickled the censors of the core market. He's pissing off his core market. I just don't, I don't understand his end game here as Gavin Newsom. I think he's uninteresting.
I think he's uninterested in Tesla anymore. I don't know what else because they haven't innovated on the product. I know everybody sort of looks at the polarization that he's created and he's repulsing his customers and he's not going to attract the ones.
who like him now, right? They may like him, they're not going to buy his car. They might, I mean, they might, I guess, but I doubt. Sean Hannity supposedly bought one, whatever, and he's like, it goes fast. I was like, these are good cars. That said. You know what? I complained again to Dara Khosrowshahi. I was like, I just ordered an Uber Black and a Tesla showed up and they're still not.
luxury cars, now I'm making the argument to him, it's not a luxury car, it's very tinny and a bumpy ride. If I wanted a luxury car, send me an actual luxury car if I'm paying for it. But that said, I think it was pathetic. But now, interestingly, if support doesn't do what Elon was hoping in the long term, which was at least stabilize Tesla shares, which are drifting down, I suspect they're going to be drifting down again.
It's not the only way the president is attempting to help him. Trump also said he would label attacks against Tesla dealerships domestic terrorism. Nobody likes these attacks. stupid what people are. They're allowed to protest and the fact that he's calling, he's trying to sort of link regular protests with domestic terrorism is ridiculous, but attacking.
you know, charger facilities, et cetera, is just violent, is what it is. It's not terrorism. It's just obnoxious and illegal, and those should be arrested. And Elon Musk is paying back the favors. He reportedly plans to give $100 million to President Trump's political operation. Trump can control rather than Musk. During the election, Musk donated over $250 million to his pro-Trump super PAC that he controlled. He made up that $100 million in the rise in Tesla stock.
after Trump did this infomercial. But it feels so pay to play. It's like so right in front of you. And I agree, Biden should have included a Tesla in that. that particular event at the White House. And someone was arguing that presidents always promote different American products, but not like this. This was like- Plus, he didn't know how cars worked, which made him seem older and more like an old man. I think that also was weird. His discomfort inside of a car felt very...
I don't know. It gave me like a Biden feel, like a doddering old man kind of. And I think he is much more vibrant, obviously, than Biden. Any other thoughts about this money that's going back and forth between these two? It really is. I mean, it's so passe, but money in politics and just what feels like a straight pay for play and all the incentives are.
I mean, I've said this for a long time. The thing that's always horrified me about our representatives and our Congress is not that they're whores, not that if you give them money, you get audience with them. I've known that for a long time. It's what incredibly cheap whores they are. And that is, if you give 10 to 25 grand to every senator, I bet more than half would meet with you when you swung by Washington.
And influence is a function of proximity and intimacy. You have audience with people who get to levy or are the arbiters of the largest person in history. So the incentives are Jeff Bezos. or Mark Zuckerberg, look at these investments and go, this is the best investment in history.
A million bucks for his inauguration campaign and he stops threatening to put me in jail or he's going to not try and break me up or he's going to tell the FTC or the DOJ to hands off Amazon or whoever. This is the best money spent unless you have systemic. laws and regulation that says, no, we pass laws that affect all companies. We're not allowed to play favorites. It's just a race to the bottom where everyone's like,
all right, let's give him a giant medal and award and build a gold statue of him and give $10 million to his electoral campaign. And the problem is that favors the incumbents because they're the ones that have all the power. And anybody who says,
No, I'm standing up for American values. I'm not going to take this money. They're at a huge disadvantage. And we end up with a majority of our elected officials are willing to engage in this grift, in this trade. So as far as you can see, you know, it's interesting because. There is a point to be made that, you know, other politicians are getting paid under the table, and this is explicit.
It's gross no matter how it happens. And it doesn't look like it's about the products, right? It never, it's not about what's best. It's what, who can pay me the most. And that, you know, that's the. We're not focused on making things that are good. We're focused on who owes the money. We all know that about American politics, but it's not implicit or explicit. It's grotesque is what it is. You know who is? Just one example. You know who's doing this, right? University of California.
I owe California taxpayers a lot. I've given some money to UCLA and to Berkeley, and both the chancellors of UCLA and Berkeley called me and said, one, thank you, and two, I just need you to know this, your kid is less likely to get in.
now that you have given money. They are not only so... worried about conflicts of interest and abusing the public purse, that if you give over a certain amount of money to the University of California, the chancellor will call you and say, just FYI, your kid is now less likely.
to get in because we have to be so careful about conflicts and not abusing the public trust and quite frankly i respect it yeah you could call your kid swisher you want to change the kitchen trust me i'll call you that's right you went to a private school where you can still just You can do pay for play. Yeah, that's true. But that is how you are supposed to respect the power of money you're given. When he favors industries, he's spending your money.
He's abusing your tax dollars. Totally. I don't even know how much that costs. That probably costs like it's the amount of money this guy just throws away of taxpayer money, like on golfing or his. dump military flights of immigrants that are overpriced and then does this. It's just ridiculous. The only person that benefited was Elon Musk with the stock going up. Somewhere, somehow, there's money.
Trump's pocket every time. I think this was bad for the brand. I really do. I think it just, I think it looked desperate. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Now that you really don't want to own a Tesla. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. What if the keys to solve the world's hardest problems were already within our grasp? Not just to tweak the systems we have, but to rethink them completely.
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Okay, Scott, let's hear your prediction and just say you thought that they're going to break up. Do you still think that? You said Doge should be over and Elon would be gone. Let's hear your prediction first. Well, that is my prediction. And that is there's not going to be a breakup. I think that essentially people keep asking us, as Anderson did last night, when does the relationship end? I don't think the relationship...
ends with a bang, I think he just sorts, I think Musk just fades to black. One, if the president is really serious about the cabinet secretaries now get to make the final decision and Musk is just an advisor to them. That means nothing is going to happen because these cabinet secretaries have a very difficult job. They need all of their staff. The savings are minimal in comparison to, for example, the increase in the deficits from the planned tax cuts.
If Elon Musk comes back, he's not going to come back with a thoughtful, you could probably cut a thousand of the 4,500 people from the Department of Education who have overseen national mandatory testing, which most people think has not worked. Right intentions has not worked. If he came back with thoughtful recommendations, the Department of Education might say, okay, that might make sense. But he's not there to look at fraud and waste.
which, by the way, we've got a clean bill of health on so far because they can't find as much as everyone had anticipated. But also, this isn't about an audit. This isn't about efficiency. These are political actions. When you cut off all U.S. aid... It's a political action and political actions are supposed to be left to our elected representatives representing the people. So if it was in fact about efficiency, fine. But what he said is if he in fact is.
honest about now he's just an advisor. He's going to have no power. Nothing's going to happen. And in addition, He is now probably doing the math and going, I miscalculated. There are not only his Tesla sales being hammered, but what he's really scared of has happened. And that is the virus here has jumped the lab. to Starlink.
And that is a lot of big customers are now rethinking their Starlink relationship. So what initially was very accretive to his personal wealth has returned. He's lost all that money and the momentum is downward. So I think he's basically going to pull a Vivek and just. slowly fade away out of, and I think Doge is going to die a quiet death because he has, it looks as if his power has been emasculated. And two, he's just losing so much money right now because of the negative brand halo.
And guess what country has alternatives? China. And Jeff Bezos is working on things. To Starlink, Starlink is dominant at this point. And he keeps saying there's no other alternative. He said that about Tesla. There's other alternatives. There's going to be other alternatives. And then he is.
up the creek without that proverbial paddle. You're right. I agree with you. Interesting prediction. We'll see. There is a staying power. There's a weird relationship happening between these two, though, that he stays there, that he's at the White House, the kids around. There's something much different here, but I would agree money. He almost teared up when he was talking about the money he was losing. Even the world's richest man doesn't like to lose tens of billions of dollars on any one day.
So, Kara, you know what stock is up? The Starlink competitor in Europe, Utelstat, has quadrupled in the last 30 days as these small, inferior product competitors. are now viable again because they have an enormous increase in interest from nations and companies that don't want to work with Starlink. That stock is gone from a month ago it was trading at $1.20. Buy Europe. That's the Scott Galloway message.
Today it opened at 682. Yeah. So you're about to see a massive amount of capital. I mean, this is so bad for Starlink. You're about to see a massive amount of capital going to other... satellite and communications providers that quite frankly weren't as competitive. They weren't as good as Starlink. Starlink's a superior product. And by the way, Tesla was a superior product, but he never, he hasn't improved it. And again, as I say over and over again,
A lot of people are banning Tesla because they're repulsed by Elon Musk, but they have not innovated their product. If you have a great product, and in this case... It's the repulsiveness and the danger if you go with him in this case, and that's why Europe is going to abandon him. And so is Canada, as Canada has. It's not just that. And there's going to be plenty of competitors in the Starlink business very soon. Anyways, there won't be a press.
There won't be a press announcement, but watch. In 30 or 60 days, Doja is going to be surprisingly like not in the news. Okay. All right. We'll see. I'd be interested. That would be great. And then they can go to Mars and it'll be great for them to do that. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Scott, that is the show. When are you going back to lunch?
soon at some point. I'm going away for the weekend and then I go back to London on Sunday. How about you? What are you up to? Oh, you know, I'm good. I'm moving my mom to Washington, as I told you. I'm picking her up today. And then I will be in D.C., but then I'm actually going on a little vacation myself. Where are you going? Puerto Rico with three of my four children. going to have a little
L.U.K. time and be in Puerto Rico, which should be a state as far as I'm concerned. I'm excited. Amanda loves it. And so we're going to go there. I've never been to Puerto Rico. I love Puerto Rico. It's beautiful. It's a beautiful place. It's a really nice place. place and it's in these United States and people should go there. People should go to all the places that were sort of hit by hurricanes too. I like going to places that are
in the United States and also deserving of our attention. Anyway, I like... I'm not a big vacationer, so I'm excited. The new Tariff St. Champagne, I feel bad. I'm going to spend my time in St. Bart's just to be a good citizen. Yeah. Okay. All right. All right, Scott, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Read us out. Today's show was produced by Lauren Amon, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin.
Ernie and her Todd engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Mee Saverio, and Dan Shulon. Nishak Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com. Bye. Bye. Bye. Meet Klaviyo, the only CRM built for B2C.
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