Hey, this is Peter Kafka. I'm the host of Channels, a podcast about technology and media and how they're both changing all the time. And this week, I'm trying to figure out how Donald Trump is changing the media. in Washington, in the courtroom, and in the boardroom. On to help me figure it all out is Sarah Fisher, the excellent Washington-based media reporter for Axios. That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. Scientists find weird kinds of life all the time.
And normally they can run experiments. If I hypothesize, life can live in bleach. Well, I can get bleach and see if life lives in it. But what if the weird thing about the life they find is that it lives for millions of years? Time. I don't have any control over that. I can literally do nothing with time. This week on Unexplainable, intraterrestrials. Aliens on Earth, deep beneath the seafloor. Follow Unexplainable for new episodes every Wednesday.
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Learn more at chevy.com forward slash Equinox EV. The manufacturer's suggested retail price excludes tax, title, license, dealer fees, and optional equipment. Dealer sets final price. Well, that's unfair. They'd fuck their mothers for a nickel. I think that's more accurate. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher in my new studio without books behind me, but they will have them. Here I am, Scott.
How do I look? Oh, my God. Could you be any more? Well, you're apologizing for not having books behind you. Well, I'm going to have awards. My many awards is what I'm going to have. Yeah. Do you like my new studio? It's in my house. I'm not sure I like the red chair quite frankly. Really? Why? Does it upset you? Does it threaten you? No, it takes me back to an era I think you've moved on. I think you've turned the page on the red chair. We'll see. I like it for now. I'm going to leave it.
because it upsets you. It upsets and disturbs you. You mean it's like retro or that I should, it reminds you of Walt Mossberg who I just had lunch with. No, I love Walt. I just think you've moved on. I don't know. What color chair should I have with you in the Scott era? Plaid. No, I don't know. Black. I'm going to put your blanket that I stole from the Fife Arms. For your birthday. Oh, good. That'd be nice. I'll put that on. Okay. All right. I'll put it. I'll drape it.
I'll drape a Scottish thing on it. I think it reminds us how old you are. But anyways. Literally. Right out of the gate. Go ahead. Right out of the gate. Go ahead. You were on your college tour. Tell me if you were away last week with your lovely guest host. I went Jen Psaki and John Lovett. They were great. Jen Psaki. Those are both great. They are great. They were very lively. I'd like to be friends with both of them. They'd be fun to roll with. We'll see about that.
She's interesting and attractive and he's interesting. Really? Okay. Sorry. Sorry, John. Anyway. Who's the handsome one? All of them. Oh, Jon Favreau is who you're thinking about. Oh, he's dreamy. Yeah. That dude's dreamy. I think John Lovett's adorable. Yeah, he's good looking. He was on Survivor. Do you know he was on the show Survivor? He was on Survivor? Yeah, he was on Survivor. He's way too smart and overthought. He's out in the second round. Yeah, he was out. That guy's too.
That guy's, I'm going to do this, I'm going to do this, and I'm voting John off the island. Okay, college tour, back to me. A college tour. Tell me about the college tour, because I really don't want to talk about White Lotus in any way. So, eight schools in five days. Seven straight days of full parenting, cleared everything, didn't talk to anybody. I only talked to you once, if that. And it was about the college tour. We went to, I like to personify everything.
And just so I can make sure my kid gets into none of them, I'll personify each of them. So the first one we did was U-Dub. University of Wisconsin, Madison. And when I was at UCLA, the fraternity next to mine was the Phi Caps. And the Phi Caps were basically these white dudes from small towns. who abused substances, who did really well on the SAT. Okay. That is the University of Wisconsin-Madison, except it's a girl who wears too much makeup, who really likes makeup.
But they're doing their job. Actually, UW Madison, I rag a lot on higher education. They're doing their job. They let in a shit ton of kids. It's crowded. They have money, but it's not the Ritz-Carlton, Madison. They get it. They got the assignment. I felt really good. I actually met with someone there just so I can virtue signal. They do this amazing program.
where they train prisoners or they educate, they do classes at local prisons. I'm giving some money to it. They're doing their job. I was really impressed with them. So you like them, but you just insulted them. So your son's not getting in there now, but go ahead and move along. There we go. Thanks for that. And then we went to Chicago.
Chicago's a dude. University of, that's what you're talking about. Yeah, UChicago. I did a session there in the Institute of Politics with David Axelrod. He's great. Yeah, which is available on YouTube. They're one of two things. They either win a Nobel Prize. Everyone who goes there either wins a Nobel Prize or ends up in a park without shoes, feeding pigeons and speaking to themselves. I mean, these people are...
I can't imagine people I would rather not party with than anyone who went to the University of Chicago. Having said that, anyone that interviews with me... They went to the University of Chicago, automatic hire because they're self-hating. They work all the time. They're brilliant, mildly depressed. Perfect employees. Perfect employees. Let's move it through. Okay, keep going. Northwestern. Okay. This is the gay son we all want. Oh, okay. This is.
You should write a college tour book. This is stylish, impressive, good in theater, but also takes AP everything and does well. And it's the most... There is clearly so much money there. It is such a beautiful campus. It is. But the lake is just sitting there going, oh, bitch, I'm going to make it so cold about three months a year. You may think, oh my God, you can just feel the wind. You can feel mother winter in the wearer going, oh, just wait and see what I'm going to do to you.
Then we went to Michigan. And saw my son. Your son is Michigan personified. Oh no, you better be careful because he loves you and I'm his mom. Imagine you're a power forward and work out all the time and a nice kid and you also get 11 million on the SAT. They're like, these kids are. Michigan is one of the schools. It's arguably the best public school in the nation, maybe tied with Berkeley. But you can go super deep on social or you could literally.
try and split the atom at the building next to the cafeteria. Yeah, right. You could go deep either way. I think Michigan, and it's a big school, I like to call out schools that are doing their job. They're living up to their mission. They're trying to keep tuition reasonable. It's not inexpensive, but educating a lot of kids. They're doing their job, and it's a really impressive place. And also, you can go deep in sports. And your son saved the day. What happened?
It's storming, about 300 people. By the way, we show up, we've been doing all these tours. By the way, easy law. It should be a law punishable by death. No parent should be able to ask a question in the fucking parents teacher in the tours. They all, I was so triggered. None of the students could ask a question because the over-parenting, and get this, the highlight, this is a true story, University of Chicago. University of Chicago.
Three women, three moms asked the same question sequentially about safety on campus. The threat to an 18-year-old freshman on college campuses is dwarfed. By the suicidal ideation of overprotection of parents that don't prepare them for the fucking real world. Moms asking questions at parent-teachers. I don't think they should ask questions then. I agree. Parents at college tours are a bigger threat to your kids' safety. All right. Okay. Moving along. So, Alex.
took you on a tour, I understand. Okay. Anyway, so we get there. They canceled the tour. The weather was so bad. They're like, we're canceling the tour. So you have 100 kids and 200 parents. just sitting in the hallway. So I text Alex and he's like, yeah, come to the house. We showed up. Imagine you're an animal living inside a trash dumpster and it had Greek letters on the side.
It is, it smells like old beer. There's shit everywhere. And by the way, it's much nicer than my fraternity. And it's these kids playing foosball, summer in suits. Some are studying physics. There's a weight room. He said you liked it. He said you seemed to enjoy being here. It took me back. I lived in my fraternity for four years. And my girlfriend wouldn't come over. I'd say, why wouldn't you come over? And she said, it smells like cum. I don't want to come over.
So I came up with a business idea. I came up with a business idea. I'm going to start a candle and it's either stale beer or cum. I think it would work. There are only four colleges in here. Alex gave you That's my Zen and Keanu. He saved the day. Oh, I'm sorry. Alex saved the day. And then Alex said, no problem, come out of fraternity. We cruised around his fraternity. My son just got the biggest kick out of a fraternity. And then he took us on this like, I don't know.
Cliff Notes tour of Michigan and then took us for lunch. He literally, Alex saved the day. We were in a typhoon with a parent teacher comp or a tour canceled and Alex. did this whirlwind. He saved the day. And my son is very impressed, very impressed by Alex. He couldn't have been nicer and more generous. Not easy for a kid to just take two or three hours out of his day. Anyways, thank you, Alex Fisher.
And then we went to Boston College, which we were really impressed by. I say that was the biggest surprise of the upside, but it is sort of a... It's a fallen Catholic. It's a kid that used to go to church, and by the 11th grade, he's selling dope out of his RAV4. Is that the AOC college, or did you go to Boston University?
Oh, yeah. See what there? I feel like Boston University is where she went. It's a contradiction. It looks like these kids are waiting to get home and light up and maybe start doing some... you know, doing some beer bongs, but there's sisters everywhere. I did not, I still haven't figured out what's going on there, but it's a really impressive, I was really pleasantly surprised by BC. We then went to...
We then went to UVA. I want to go to UVA. I think it's the most beautiful campus in the nation. I think if we want to restore prosperity and mating. I think men and women should each get a number. And whatever the number is, you get married on the spot on the lawn. Everyone there is nice. Everyone there is good looking. Everyone there is impressive. Just marry them all off.
They should all just marry each other. They're never going to find a talent pool like that. It's a nice school. The architecture. And then we went to UNC. And the terrible thing about teenagers is they start getting these terrible things called opinions. We got to UNC, and my son was like a dog off a leash in the park. He just started running around and going in buildings, and something happened at UNC. UNC is basically...
The hottest, smartest person or the hottest, most, the most popular kid in class. Yet all UNC schools have one thing in common. They leave North Carolina. The second hottest, most impressive person goes to UNC. Great school. Great vibe. It's just got a great vibe. Great vibe. Another school people love. The two schools where they talk about it to this day is UNC and Michigan.
They love their schools. They love their schools. I'm not exaggerating, and I'm a little bit scared to say this. I don't think it'll impact anything. He walked to the top of the stairs. I couldn't tell the difference between UNC and UVA, except UVA looks like it has 50 or 60 wealthier donors. It's a little newer. It's a little shinier. He walked to the top of the stairs, he turned around, and he looked out over the quad, and he goes, this is my school. Oh, see, you know it.
All right. Well, don't say anything. And all I can think about, 8% out-of-state admissions rate. I don't know if it's your school. You need to move to North Carolina. That's what you need to do. I literally chat GPT'd that. How do you establish North Carolina residents? It's not. It's not easy. You actually have to live there. Anyways, it's two Republicans, but the governor's a great guy. All right. I'm going to stop your calls, Jordan, because we're 10 minutes in.
I'm glad. That's my college tour. Next week. All right. We have a lot. By the way, when you were gone, things happened, my friend. Lots of things happened. Really? The world kept spinning? The world did not keep spinning. The world is crashing. We're on a... Let's get right in. Let's get in. The U.S. markets are on a roller coaster as we record Monday morning following an epic two-day dive.
Last week, Epic in a bad term that destroyed $6 trillion in market value thanks to Donald Trump's tariffs, which seemed like inane in the way they were formulated. U.S. stock. Tumbled at the opening bell today briefly surged following a report that Trump was considering a 90-day pause, which many are suggesting to him, including...
Jamie Dimon and others, from bankers and other people. The White House quickly called that report fake news, and the current Dow S&P 500 are currently back in the red. So a lot of volatility to say the least. Who knows what Trump will do? In fact, he seems to be sticking by his guns. We'll get to winners and losers from these tariffs a little later, but we've seen overall, we've been seeing Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a U.S. recession of 45%.
As Larry Summers put it, this is the biggest self-inflicted wound we put on our economy in history. In terms of retaliation, China was quick to respond, imposing a 34 percent tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10th. Trump said he's going to impose an additional 50 percent on China if they don't drop that 34 percent increase. And of course, the TikTok deal went out the window.
The EU is expected to present a united front in the coming days with a set of targeted countermeasures. Let me read a couple more things. This retaliation moves Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who looks unhappy. said over the weekend that more than 50 countries have started negotiations with the U.S. since the tariff announcement, whatever, probably like the penguins, maybe. Though Trump also said, my policies will never change.
Howard Lutnick, who seems like the biggest clown of all besides Peter Navarro, which are the two faces of this. also offered his take on how tariffs will lead to a manufacturing resurgence in the U.S. on Face the Nation. This quote, I literally was like, this is the dumbest person I've ever met. So let's go. Let's listen to that, and then we'll get some reaction from you.
Remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones. That kind of thing is going to come to America. It's going to be automated and great Americans, the trade craft of America. It's going to fix them. It's going to work on them. There are going to be mechanics. There's going to be HVAC specialists. There's going to be electricians. The trade craft of America are high school educated Americans. The core to our workforce.
is gonna have the greatest resurgence of jobs in the history of America to work on these high-tech factories, which are all coming to America. He's an idiot. I don't know what else to say. The screws, the robots, whatever he's saying. Last thing, sorry, Mark Cuban said one thing the terrorists are going to spur is smuggling a resurgence. Mark Cuban said that and noted that maybe that's what the Border Patrol money is used for. So reaction. Well, let's just talk about Apple.
Americans don't want to go into a factory and screw in little screws. Americans don't even want to put on a hazmat suit and go to a regular factory. This notion that Americans are dying to go back to an assembly line is just not true. You can't get You can't get Americans to work on a construction site. Do you think they're going to show up for assembly line work? So let's talk specifically about Apple. iPhone costs about $1,200 or $1,300. With the existing tariffs, they're going to $2,000.
If we tried to produce them in the U.S., they'd be $3,500. They're not. So first off, they're not coming back here. And all that's going to happen is the following. Fewer people are going to buy fewer iPhones. It'll reduce. Apple revenues by 30 to 40 billion dollars, say economists, it trades at eight times revenue. So you're going to wipe out a third of a trillion dollars.
You're going to have 401ks go down. You're going to people be less confident buying things. You're going to have Apple employees and shareholders lose a lot of wealth. You're going to have. I mean, you're in we're not even talking about the second tier effects. And that is, one, we are thrusting people into the arms of China. And two. Assume it just goes tit for tat. Let's stop talking. We know tariffs are bad. Let's assume that we reduce a billion dollars of Samsung sales.
Right. I'm trying to think of an analog to Apple and Apple sales go down a billion dollars. Samsung. trades at like 1.2 to 2 times revenues. Apple trades at 8. So you think, okay, it's bad, but we each lose a billion dollars in revenue and sales through prices or products that are less competitive because they're more expensive. No, we lose $8 billion in market cap. They lose two.
The biggest beneficiary of global trade over the last 30 or 40 years has been the U.S. because the products we export are high margin, high value-add manufactured products. We're the second biggest manufacturer in the world. But what we do is we take cheap oil from Canada, we refine it, we take cheap products from other nations in earth minerals, and we turn them into very expensive 55-point margin NVIDIA chips. And services. Don't leave out services.
Tesla, another example. Toyota, really well-run company. trades at 0.7 times revenue. Tesla trades at eight times revenue. So for every billion dollars in reductions in trade of Tesla, we lose 8 billion in market cap. They lose. So the echo effect here is so dramatic. And even beyond that, even beyond that, you're going to see, in my view, over the next five years. a pretty serious destruction in the value of our stock markets. And it's for the following reasons.
The U.S. market trades at a P.E. multiple of 28 until Wednesday night. Now it's down to 26. Germany is at 22 or 23. Japan at 18. China at 14. Now, why do our companies trade at a higher value for the same earnings, the same profits as as companies in other nations. It's because we have this umbrella called the U.S. brand, and it means a lot of things. It means risk-aggressive capital.
It means entrepreneurship. It means great universities, great IP. It means immigration. It means rule of law and consistency. We're seen as a consistent trading partner. China doesn't have rule of law. They can put companies out of business right away. They can disappear people. Germany doesn't have as much risk capital. They're not as aggressive. The U.S. is losing or has lost
Two things. Rule of law. We've now decided to basically ignore court orders. We're doing one-offs and companies that make no sense. We're deporting people to El Salvador for no reason at all. In addition, we're no longer seen as consistent. The epileptic sclerotic decisions of this guy. So what are you going to have? You're going to have a re-rating of the S&P down from 26 to maybe 15. And here's the thing. All of our companies could continue to outperform the rest of companies around the world.
and their stocks are still going to go down. If you invested in Latin American stocks, It didn't matter how well the company did. You cannot. outrun multiple contraction, which is going to happen over the next five years. So, Stephanie will point out correctly, like, it's deciding on this one person who has a wrong math and the wrong idea between trade deficits and tariffs and the relationship. Every single thing he's saying is actually wrong.
and has this thing in his head that everything has to equal out, that if they... buy this we sell that like we have to sell exactly like why don't they and Stephen Miller same thing why don't they buy American cars because Toyotas are better you dumbass and they make them here too like The stupidity is outranked only by the, as you were saying, the rule of law, the lack of any consistency, the reliability of the U.S.
One, what has to happen here? What do you imagine is going to happen here? Because there's now suddenly Jamie Dimon is speaking. Bill Ackman has suddenly found his balls again and is saying something truthful. He made sure he sucked up to Trump in the beginning of his screed, which was about a nuclear winter in investing, essentially. or in the U.S. economy. What's your advice to people that are panicking right now and trying to figure out what to do with their investments? And then second,
No, first, what do you think is going to happen? And what's your advice for people if it continues in this way? I feel more confident answering the latter than the former. I can't predict Donald Trump. I think he is so, look, the only adult in the cabinet here that isn't on unsecure phones and apps. releasing attack plans to the rest of the world and who has any understanding of economics. I've said this for a long time. The adult in the room is the Dow, the 10-year, and the NASDAQ.
And if the NASDAQ keeps going down, they're probably going to have to respond. They're not going to be able to jazz hands their way out of this. The argument they're making is the following, is that... Sometimes the market doesn't represent the real economy. That's actually a relatively good argument. The Dow Jones and NASDAQ are dangerous indicators because they give a false signal of prosperity. And a lot of people aren't impacted by the markets. They're impacted by things like inflation.
The problem is if you were to take minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour or you were to increase taxes on corporations to try and have some fiscal sanity, that would take the markets down, but that would be an investment that would be worth it. This is just making products more expensive, making our products less competitive overseas, and convincing the rest of the world to reconfigure the supply chain to not include American businesses or professionals.
That's just shooting yourself in the foot and then taking your gun and putting it in your mouth. So, but I have no idea what he's going to do. I just don't get it. I think if this gets much worse, he's probably going to do some bullshit. Like, so for example, Jamie Dimon's suggestion, that's even worse because it's the uncertainty that hurts more than the tariff.
We're going to do that. We're going to pull another TikTok. It's just, for God's sakes, we'd be better off if he just... came up with some sort of, not this tariff level, but some sort of modest tariff and let people plan their business. It's the uncertainty and the unpredictability. It's like being in a relationship with someone who's bipolar, speaking for a friend. You don't know who you're waking up next to. Also, it's incorrect. One of the people who they base the theories on.
has written a piece in their time saying they got this totally wrong and they did the math wrong and it's a quarter. What they should put here is a quarter. of what I said, you know, I said a quarter of what they're doing here, which means they don't know how to do math. That's the part that's frightening. They actually don't understand what they've done, like pushing the nuclear button. What does this do kind of thing?
That makes me more nervous. The key to building a business, the team of the best players wins. Greatness is in the agency of others. Do you know these ass clowns? Do you know where they came up with the formula for their tariffs? If you type in tariff, give me a tariff that levels up our trade debt, which is a stupid, you want a trade deficit. But if you ask the question,
Put in place tariffs against every nation based on bringing equilibrium to our trade deficit. If you put it into chat GPT, you come back with the exact formulas they came up with. Their economic advisors are fucking turning to chat GPT. Let's go to your second question, what to do as an investor. This is what you do. Nothing.
And that is whether it's you getting a divorce, whether you lose someone you love, whether you get fired, you do not make big life decisions in the midst of emotional trauma because you are not thinking straight. In addition. Tomorrow morning, he could announce, say you sell all your stocks today, he could announce tomorrow morning that he's removing all tariffs. He's capable of doing that. And the markets could rip up 2,000 points. And then what happens to your mental health?
when you're sold at the bottom. Probably the worst piece of financial advice given to media was when Jim Cramer, who I don't think he's malice, I think he's a good guy trying to do the right thing. He told investors at the very bottom, if you don't like this volatility, you should sell your stocks within 14 months. We had recovered all of our losses. If you sold when Jim Cramer suggested you might want to think about getting out. you saw your net worth cut in half.
And even more damaging to your financial well-being was your mental well-being because you saw everybody else get back exactly where they were and you were the idiot that sold at the bottom. This is what I'm doing. Since Q4 of last year, I just look at the S&P it's trading at. Apple's trading at 38 times earnings and it's not growing. I have been selling down U.S. stocks and I have been diversifying
into Latin American and European and some Asian stocks. Because if you're just invested in the U.S., you are not diversified. And see above. a re-rating down, a contraction in the multiple of U.S. stocks. You may want to think about maybe taking some tax losses, harvesting some tax losses. Talk to people. Talk to people. Have a kitchen cabinet. Don't do anything rash. You're out of emotion.
But I think if you were to diversify into European stocks, which, by the way, you're not buying low and selling low and buying high. European stocks have been hit hard, too. You're a little bit more diversified, which I think is a vastly underrated strategy. D-E-R, that stock. All right. We're going to go to a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk a little bit more about the losers and some winners from the Trump tariffs.
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Apple dropped 16%, Meta fell 14%, Amazon was down 13%. Nice job, boys, of going to the inauguration. That really paid off for you. The two-day drop wiped out $31 billion in net worth for Elon Musk at $23 billion. for Jeff Bezos and $27 billion for Mark Zuckerberg. I feel so bad for them.
How's the investment in Trump paying off now as a reporter of the weekend? A number of these folks want to go to Mar-a-Lago to talk to him about this. I don't know if they've done it yet, but this was the rumor that was going down that they are really, and also bankers.
Elon doesn't seem to agree with Trump on tariffs. And of course, speaking his mind, he said on Saturday that he hoped Europe and the U.S. would affect him to zero tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone. Totally opposite. He also had a couple of posts. calling out Peter Navarro, Trump's trade advisor, who is...
Such an idiot. All the, this I agree with Ilan on, all this as EU regulators are reportedly preparing to inflict a billion dollar fine against X for breaking a law to combat illicit content. And disinformation, that's separate. This is interesting that he's doing that. The person that's looking more like a genius than ever, Warren Buffett. He didn't kiss the Trump wing. He's been growing his cash pile in the last year. He's currently sitting around $334 billion.
Never doubt Warren Buffett, I guess. And then also a few losers, fast fashion brands. Sheehan, a Scott favorite, and Timu. Trump has closed the loophole that gave the tariff exemption on goods shipped. from China valued under $800. I think it's called de minimis or something like that. It no longer applies as of May 2nd. A lot of people didn't like this loophole.
Without the loophole, prices and orders could jump as much as 30%. Amazon might also take a hit because they ran into the low-cost storefront powered by China, Chinese goods, cheap Chinese goods. One of the things that was really strange was Scott Besant talking about how Americans shouldn't buy cheap stuff anymore. Too bad. Too bad for you, Scott, because you can afford cashmere all the time. But that was another message they were sending out is we should get off our...
Our cheap goods. So no longer shop at Walmart? The biggest employer in the U.S.? Yeah, right. Whatever. Like, none of your fucking business, dudes. So talk a little bit about tech, because also the last thing is tech sells a lot of services into Europe and cloud computing. Also, so do the McKinsey's of the world. And that's where we have a trade surplus.
in services, from what I understand. So talk a little bit about why it's impacting tech and, you know, sort of the, you see the real cracks in the Elons and the others. Bezos is probably apoplectic. Trump, um, Cook is apoplectic, I'm sure. And, and a little, and Warren Buffett. He's 105 years old, and he's once again the GOAT. It's just, okay, so let's look at Europe as the U.S. We export NVIDIA chips.
NVIDIA trades at 24 times revenues. For every billion dollars, they sell in additional chips to other markets. institutional investors and employees of NVIDIA register a $24 billion gain. California gets enormous tax revenue from the incremental gains of shareholder value. When Mercedes exports Mercedes in the United States, they trade at 0.23. If they lose a billion dollars in business, They lose $23 million in market cap. $23 million versus $24 billion in lost market cap.
We have taken global trade has been great for the world. It's been the world more prosperous. And to be clear. We haven't done a good job of protecting the people who get hurt. Some people get hurt. There are certain industries. South Korea has done a good job of protecting nascent industries, strategic to them, with tariffs. Tariffs can be used. These blanket tariffs. Or let me put it this way. One of the greatest increases.
In global prosperity over the last 50 years, it would be hard-pressed. You might think, well, it's the world order where democracies have bound together under the umbrella of U.S. prosperity and NATO and military might. We have kept the peace. Wars are very destructive to economics.
But at the top of the list would probably be global trade. Find out what you can produce best at the lowest price and trade with someone who's really good at producing something else. And you both get better products at a lower price and you have a greater quality of life. So it's not only reduces the prosperity of the world. It massively, there's no nation that benefits more from global trade because our products are high margin, high value add when...
Canada ships energy into the U.S. We then add value to it. We refine it. We turn it into higher grade petroleum and we sell it at triple the price to other people. People, we are in the business of high value add, high margin. rule of law, IP driven, that creates so much revenue and shareholder value. What about this argument that we're going to bring domestic manufacturing back here? And everyone, even the crazy stations are like, that's going to take 10 years.
And they're not going to do it. It'll never happen. It'll never happen. It'll never happen. And first off, we're not just a taco truck with masseuses. We're the second largest manufacturer in the world. We manufacture really high-value-add products that have decent margins. We have purposely outsourced. low, low value add, low margin, low shareholder value products. And American consumers, I'm sorry, American workers don't want to go back into factories. 98% of businesses
that sell into global trade are small and medium-sized businesses. 40 million jobs are related to or depend on global trade. And people say, well, 40 million to 355, that's not that bad. Only 150 million people in the U.S. work. So the notion we're going to bring back, we don't want to bring back. I mean, you need what you need are great. Great middle-class, well-paying jobs. Vocational. You need more people trained to install energy-efficient HVAC heaters at $30 an hour. We need that.
But there is not a line to go work on a factory floor in Lansing, Michigan. This isn't what people do. Try and renovate a house and see how much people want to actually build a home that were born here. They don't. Guess who wants to do that immigrant? It's exactly right. So this notion... This notion that everyone's lining up to go work at a factory job.
in the Midwest on an assembly line? It's just, it's such a, it's like an 80s guy idea of the world. Like, seriously. And I get, you know, I do actually get the arguments about sort of hollowing out American manufacturing by doing cheaper goods abroad and going too far with free trade and not retraining people. There's great arguments to be made about trying to figure out new ways for people to have jobs.
But this way, the idea, we're going to bring back factor. Every time Howard Lutnick gets on the air, I'm like, are you living in a different... century. It's been stuck in Trump's head for 40 years. And what's astonishing is the Republicans are like, let's listen to the president.
That's not. He knows. He's playing 4D chess. We just don't get it. No, that's not what's happening. He's stuck in the 80s. He's stuck in some era that no longer exists. And wouldn't it be great if the women didn't vote? And there was no such thing as me too. And I could do whatever I felt like. This is a different era. And what kind of amazes me is that it hasn't gotten through to, that the Republicans are...
Jill, sticking with it is such a test of MAGA. I've never seen anything. This has got to be the ultimate cult test. Will you take the Kool-Aid? Will you actually drink the Kool-Aid? kind of thing. We're so narcissistic, we refuse to acknowledge that the rest of the world is a pretty interesting case study in history.
And the 50s and 60s, Latin America embraced protectionist policies. Their economy did not grow. They opened up. Their economy boomed. The last time we had tariffs like this, they weren't even as big as this. was in 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Those tariffs weren't as big as these. And what was the impact there?
It widened, it worsened a great impression. Instead of boosting the economy and creating jobs, by 1933, real U.S. GDP had dropped by a third. Do you know what would happen in the U.S.? If GDP dropped by a third and the unemployment rate, which is at 4%, hit 25%. I was really disappointed, really disappointed. I watched all the Sunday morning programs. Margaret Brennan did a good job. The rest of them clearly didn't take an economics class because they couldn't ask a basic question.
Name a country. There are 159 countries. There are two centuries of economic, modern economic history. Name a country where this level of tariffs is worth. It backfires. It's the ultimate own goal. The fact that they're going, let's wait and see. Like, no, let's not wait and see what happens when we inject bleach into our veins. Let's not wait and see.
We have to move on, because one of the things that I want to talk about is this is a gift to China. If China needed a way out of their economic doldrums, we've just handed them the key. Let me just ask you one question. This is a sincere question. If they can have a conspiracy that in the basement, which doesn't exist of a pizza joint, Hillary Clinton is drinking the blood of children they're sacrificing, I can go semi-conspiracy theory.
Okay, go ahead. Let's hear it. Putin and Xi have each put $10 billion into the Trump coin, or they've committed to it. You're going to be the wealthiest man in history, but you need to do the following things. You need to withdraw from Ukraine.
You need to fragment the strongest U.S.-Western democracy alliances in history to give us license to do whatever the fuck we want. So he's the ultimate Manchurian candidate is what you're saying. And we need you to thrust the biggest train. China's all about money. We need you to thrust the biggest trading partners into arms. We need you to get Japan and South Korea to start talking to us again. If it was not Trump Vance, this is the question, if it was not Trump Vance,
But it was Putin Xi. What would be any fucking different than what has happened over the last two months? Well, it seems too complicated. I just think he's stupid. We should have hired the smart. That's a solid plan B. We should have hired the smart woman of color. But that's my question. If Putin and Xi had been president and vice president.
What would they have done differently? I don't know. I agree. I think he's just so stupid. I just stupidity takes the cake here and he's stupid and he's addled. He's got to go. He's got to go. I don't know what else to say. Let's surrender Ukraine and side with our enemies. Let's pretend you won the Cold War, even though we won it. Except he has been talking about this for 40 years. It's been like a hair up his ass for 40 years.
Like he has been talking about this. So I feel like he's now like, I'm going to do this finally and see what happens. I'm pushing this button. And I'm seeing what's happening. I don't think it's a conspiracy. I'm going to ask ChatGPT. All right. Let's go on a quick break. We come back. Speaking of China, the TikTok deadline gets postponed yet again.
Last week, John Levitt joined me to co-host an episode of Pivot, and it was a great one. If you enjoyed that, you'll love his podcast, Love It or Leave It. Love It or Leave It is America's And can't miss moments. Catch new episodes of Love It or Leave It every Saturday, watch on YouTube, or join the live show in LA to witness the chaos in person. It's been a rough week for your retirement account, your friend who... imports products from China for the TikTok.
Hooters has now filed for bankruptcy, but they say they are not going anywhere. Last year, Hooters closed dozens of restaurants because of rising food and labor costs. Hooters is shifting away from its iconic skimpy waitress outfits and bikini days instead.
opting for a family-friendly vibe. They're vowing to improve the food and ingredients, and staff is now being urged to greet women first when groups arrive. Maybe in April of 2025, you're thinking, good riddance? Does the world still really need this? chain of restaurants. But then we were surprised to learn of who exactly was mourning the potential loss of Hooters. Straight guys who like chicken, sure. But also a bunch of gay guys who like chicken? Check out today's... that is, won't you?
The Nintendo Switch 2 is basically guaranteed to be the most interesting gadget of 2025. And we learned a lot of new stuff about it this last week or so. Some of the games that are coming out, some of the specs of the new device, and the fact that it's going to cost $449.99. Except maybe it's not, because the other thing going on right now is tariffs. And tariffs...
to change just about everything about tech, what it is, how it's made, where it comes from, and crucially, how much we have to pay for it. So that's what we're talking about on The Vergecast all week, wherever you get podcasts. Scott, we're back. President Trump delayed the ban on TikTok for 75 days for a second time. How ridiculous. A steal for the sale was reportedly closed until Trump made his tariffs announcement, causing China to pull out of the negotiations, obviously.
Oracle Blackstone and Andreessen, who are with all friends of Donald Trump reportedly involved. Trump has previously suggested he could lessen tariffs on China in exchange for a deal. I'm sure China is just thrilled to hear that. I don't know why China would do anything. Like, maybe they will if they want it. I don't know why you would do anything. So, let's do a very brief thing about this because it's...
I think it's just going to sit there in limbo and just bump along, right? There's no deal here. They're going to try to bring it under 20%. I think that's the amount, the ownership of China. the chinese government and or chinese investors yeah well you go first here what are your thoughts caravan so i don't know what's going to happen here it feels like a story from the 1980s too i mean
I think it's I think eventually it'll have some convoluted thing that's not going to make a difference or keep us safer in any way. I think they need to make the case of why it is dangerous. I never I sort of like the law, but didn't like I didn't feel I made their case. And at the same time, I'm absolutely certain the Chinese are manipulating it. Like, I don't even feel like that. So I think it's eventually a dwindling. company, right? Like over time, it's not focusing on this product.
The reason things fail is because products suck. Well, the 45 to 95 was the brand era, but digital unlock around product is a new bomb again. It sounds boring, but I'm like, if. If Tesla made great cars, people would still buy them even though he's a toad. And they don't advertise. Right. I really do think that. I'm thinking to myself, I use Amazon and I don't want to use it because I'm really irritated by Jeff Bezos. But it's a great product and it's really hard.
How do you think I feel using Starlink to call you on FaceTime? I know, I know. I think it's just really, I think the problem is that this will suffer as a product because of all this mishigash. And so I don't feel kids talk. I mean, they're going to move on to the next thing. That's what I feel like. And eventually they'll come up with some convoluted way where Mark Andreessen gets even richer than he already is and more toxic.
It won't make any sense and it won't protect Americans better. And China will continue to dominate. Just to me, all of this has been a gimme to China. Just one big gimme to a government that does not want us to dominate. So as as it relates to TikTok, I just don't think we would ever let CBS, NBC and ABC be owned by the Kremlin in the 60s. I think it's fucking insane to have.
TikTok. I think we're raising a generation of civic, military, and business leaders who hate America. 50% of people our age feel good about America, one in 10 young people. And I might even be wrong, but just from a trade symmetry standpoint, there are no media companies in China and we can't afford to have The average 14-year-old boy in America is spending 17 hours on a media platform controlled by the CCP. It's just not a good idea.
So it should be banned. Now, the second thing, and this goes back to the notion that you can't outrun multiple contraction, which we're about to incur the mother of all multiple contraction, is remember when Trump hated TikTok? And then remember when President Biden had a...
bipartisan law passed and none of it fucking means anything anymore because if the one of the largest donors to the trump campaign jeffrey ass is also happens to be an investor In TikTok and a bunch of crypto bros and Silicon Valley bros were also investors. He can do all this bullshit. I'm in, I'm out. I'm your girlfriend. I'm not your girlfriend. I want to break up. I don't want to break. Why would anyone take us seriously? Why would...
China is like, yeah, fine. China's not going to back down to the U.S. Unless they can figure out a way, unless they have all sorts of assets, which is Latin for spies, within Oracle. And they feel like they can keep the asset in the US as an espionage and propaganda tool. And have their cake and eat it too. They're just going to play slow ball because this guy will change his mind next week. Or maybe General Atlantic Partners or Sequoia Capital.
who would have sex with their sisters for a nickel, would put pressure on Trump and offer him... What do you want now? I knew you'd bring in White Lotus, but go ahead. Well, that's unfair. They'd fuck their mothers for a nickel. I think that's more accurate. Anyways, these folks... These folks now run the White House. And so this is TikTok just sort of represents. One, a national security threat that we just don't take seriously because our kids like it and we don't understand it.
I remember when you took me to the White House, I remember thinking, and they were like, oh, we're not on TikTok. I'm like, that's a bad idea. You don't realize what's going on. You don't see what's happening to our kids here. Your kid can see a beheading and then a dance video and then something showing. you know, viewpoints on Hamas and Israel or viewpoints a bunch of people like, I'm even part of it. I see my angriest videos get the most play on TikTok.
They get dialed up. And that's not just TikTok. It's everything else. But why on earth? Why on earth would we allow missiles to be planted on an island, Cuba, 60 miles offshore, the U.S. coast, even if they claim they will never use them against us? Like, no, we're just not going to put up with that.
And then again, it's the inconsistency that's going to take our prosperity now. Does it matter? Because we're giving them advantage in this tariff thing. Now we've given them an even bigger thing. Oh, biggest winner here. Winner. Biggest winner is China. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. China. China, China. And they were really losing. They were really losing. Biggest winner out of all this. Hands down. All of a sudden, Canada's like, Chinese are mining up all the real estate in Vancouver.
This is what every Chinese diplomat and businessman is working. I've done a lot of business in China. They're all working overtime, and they're going to European capitals. They're going everywhere and saying, They may say, you may not agree with us, but you know what? We're good partners. Lifeline for China. This has been such a gift to China. Anyway, that's our feelings. It's an unbelievable gift to Vice President Xi. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.
Okay, Scott, we're going to do wins and fails. I think I shall go first. I think win, I really enjoy. I love a protest. I thought these hands-off protests were everywhere. Every city was full. I love seeing them in Turkey. I love like people turning out. I don't know if they work or not, but. DC and New York, 100,000 attendees each. Amanda went down, I did not. And like average people, it was not like they're professional protesters that you might see.
Themes were administration's attacks on Social Security, the layoffs, deportations, Elon Musk, of course. I love the signs. They make me laugh. IKEA has better cabinet. It's funny, they really do. Wisconsin hates Elon so much it could be one of his kids. abort unwanted presidencies. We're all the couch now.
Trump, of course, spent the weekend golfing. I mean, just the visuals couldn't be any better. And I kind of just like it. It gets people in bold. And I don't know if protests matter, but this one had a... had a real momentum feel, which is nice. And we'll see if that matters or not. For the fail, so obvious, 60 Minutes, which is, you know, people talk about the decline of traditional media. People who do real reporting, really, we owe them a debt of gratitude. They did a story on Sunday.
on Venezuelan migrants who got deported to prison in El Salvador in their reporting. found no criminal records for 75% of those migrants. These people... were taken off the street many of them with legally here and put in a prison it's literally like a you know a movie it's a movie it feels like a movie this is so cruel and the people who are doing this to people and putting people in prison without any criminal record and sending them to another country they're not even from.
I hope they go to jail themselves at some point. And pretending they can't take them back, this is grotesque in every single way. Grotesque. So it's like such an embarrassment. And people aren't paying attention because of all this. stuff about the tariffs and the stock market, but boy, what a human rights disaster for us as our country. We have no ability to say we're a good people if we're doing things like that. I like both of those.
I'm an ageist. I think all of these old people need to go away. I think that... Biden's inability and the people around him, their lack of backbone to acknowledge that biology always wins. is if we've decided the prefrontal cortex of a 34-year-old is too immature to have that person have access to nuclear weapons. And for God's sakes, an 80-year-old shouldn't have their finger on the button. And my win is...
The market is responding. Democrat, I think it's Saikat Chakrabarty, who was the comms director for 35-year-old former boss, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. has decided that he's going to challenge Rep. Nancy Pelosi, or he did challenge her, for Chakrabarty, 39-year-old software engineer, turned political operative.
I like seeing young people rising to the challenge. In Los Angeles, 37-year-old Jake Rakoff announced last week that he was running for the seat of his former boss, Rep. Brad Sherman, who's 70. Representative Sherman, you served your country well. Now collect a gold watch and go play fucking golf. You're too old. In Michigan, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, 38, launched a bid for a state's open U.S. Senate seat by talking about her experiences as a millennial.
I mean, there are young people stepping up here. I saw her at MSNBC. I was on Jen Psaki's show on Sunday, and I ran into Mallory. She's really impressive. Very impressive. Abu Ghazala. That's the problem with all these young names. Oh, no. Names are too fucking complicated. Change your name to, like, Smith. And we're out. Change your name to Smith. You'll get more votes. You'll get more votes.
Anyways, Kat, I like that. That's what I'm going to call a rep Kat. Reb Jen Schakowski. Oh, my God. Really? You're not doing this. But go ahead. Oh, wait, she's running for the seat of Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who was 80. Go home. Go home, Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Good congressperson, let me say, for many years. Go home.
Yeah, I agree. I'm out of here in 10 years. Senator Schumer, you're 74. Someone this weekend offered me 10 million bucks if I put in 10 million to run for president. I'm like, I'm too fucking old. You need someone who's going to work. Bill Clinton slept five hours a night for eight years. All right. OK, so fail old people. Oh, people. Okay. We need my win is young people stepping up to the plate. If you're, and I always like to put accent by the word, if you're a young.
a young, moderate, running against someone who just is only there because they're a fucking incumbent. Email me, scottatstern.nyu, and I'm in. I'm in for the maximum campaign contribution. I'm voting for youth and new ideas and vigor. Okay, my fail is the following. I don't know, somewhere between six and eight million dollars. I got some of it back because I'd shorted AI stocks. So I probably lost four to five million bucks.
That's the bad news. The good news is I am so blessed and privileged because of the underpinnings of an America that offers prosperity. offers opportunities to the children of single immigrant mothers who lived and died a secretary, rule of law, great entrepreneurial culture. It really doesn't matter. I'm fine. I know it matters to a lot of people. I'm only flexing and bragging about my wealth, but it does have a point. My disappointment is that, okay.
where we've decided to side with autocrats, not democracies pushing back on autocrats. We now live in a nation. where it's possible that you can go to jail if you don't narc on someone who is planning to get an abortion. We live in a country where it is feasible where a 14-year-old who is raped
has to carry her child to term. We live in a country where a woman could die of sepsis in an emergency room parking lot because she's bleeding out, because the medical professionals are too scared to perform. a necessary abortion. We live in a country where we now have a president who's opened a Swiss banking account where anyone can put money in in exchange for political favors and not have to disclose it. That is the country we are in.
And here's what money has done. You left out law firms, but go ahead. And we can intimidate law firms into agreeing not to represent. the president's adversaries. I mean, that's the whole point of the, that's the whole fucking point of our legal system. Paul Weiss, go fuck yourself. Jesus Christ, don't call yourself, you should never call yourself an American law firm. Your headquarters is fucking Moscow meets Mar-a-Lago. What cowards. And by the way, guest speaker, Bob Iger.
That's the country we're in. And where do people turn up? Where do people decide, that's it, we have to go to Mar-a-Lago? is when the markets are down 10%. Well, guess what? That's about number 30 on my fucking list of what terrible things have happened to this country. So look, I'll take it. I'll take it.
When it's all about the markets and not about people's rights, not about humanity, not about coarseness and cruelty, not about the whole point of a constitution, the whole point of a democracy. is you protect the lower 50. You and I are going to be just fine. And I understand your concerns about your family. I think those are real concerns.
The majority of people in the top 1%, we're going to be fine. The whole point of a constitution and a democracy is you have to protect the bottom 50. And what is all of a sudden the red line? The NASDAQ is down. That's what has people riled. That's the red line. That's the red line. Right? That's the red line. Yep. Yep. All right. We're okay with murderous autocrats and 14-year-olds carrying babies to term. But if the NASDAQ goes down, that's too much. You know what?
On Thursday and Friday, the market's going down. I could give a flying fuck. I'll take the markets down another 10 percent. Start protecting the lower 50. I love this, Scott. The lesbian from San Francisco, Scott Galloway, I give you people. All right. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. I love your verb, Scott.
Elsewhere in the Scott and Kara universe, this week I spoke with Jeff Lawson, owner of The Onion. Oh, what a great guy this guy is in terms of what he's done there. Let's listen to a clip. We have worked to create an environment where people will come to defend us in a way that they don't necessarily come to defend the New York Times.
Because it's believed that New York Times can defend itself. It's a big organization. The Little Old Onion, when you go after satire, and it shows just how small, I'm going to make a penis joke, just how small your penis is when you come after satire. I think people rise up and they say, that's enough. Like, we're going to defend this little thing called the onion because Satire is highly protected speech. And The Onion is a beloved brand and a beloved publication.
Anyway, really interesting guy. He's, you know, he's trying to keep it. I love The Onion. I think they do a great job. And he's sort of saved it in a lot of ways. Anyway, his name's Jeff Lawson. It was great. And he loves Scott Galloway. So he had to make one penis joke. I love The Onion. Yeah, I know. The hard part, though, is occasionally I read The Onion, and I'm like, is that actual news today? I know. They're doing all kinds of cool things, and he really did save it in a lot of ways.
Just a small little contribution. He's a billionaire, too. He was at Twilio. He had a big activist investor thing, sort of toss him out. But really interesting guy. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe. to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday. Scott, read us out and be very indignant. I like it. Today's show is produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kate Gallagher. Ernie Intertot entered into this episode
Julian Villard edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Ms. Severo, and Dan Shulon. Mishak Karwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Don't you often see someone and think what's their story? What's their life?
How did he end up on a park bench without shoes, feeding pigeons and speaking to himself? University of Chicago. I was on a college tour, Kara.