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you have more time for strategic work. Ready to save and grow? Get Brex, the platform that helps you make every dollar count. Visit Brex.com slash box 2024. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine in the Box Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisher. And I'm Scott Callaway. Hello, Scott. How are you doing? You're still in Germany, correct? Last night I was an American living in London watching Team England at a beer garden in Munich. And I don't know those moments where I thought that.
You're European. Well, just how much the world has changed, right? And I think about not that long ago in terms of time in Germany was literally our day worthy enemy. And now they're one of our strongest allies. And then I went to the BMW museum with my 13-year-old as a dad does was his 13 year old after buying the new Jude Bellingham Adidas cleats. So we go to the BMW museum, BMW owns many. Louis has a many. Does he? He loves it. He
loves his many. They're great cars or the fun cars, I should say. And then I think you had one. I think I've driven in a mini with you. You have one Louis has. Yeah. Oh, got it. But I took a picture of this thing and I'll post it online. But the original lost in mini Metro. It's essentially a lawnmower with doors. I mean, it is tiny. Yeah. And my mother and father met in Toronto. They immigrated first to Toronto. They met. I got
married or so the story goes. And then they got pregnant. And after a brutal Toronto winter, they decided they wanted to move in America was land of opportunity. And they finally got there, visa or whatever it was. And they read in the Toronto Globe and Mail that the city with the best weather in North America was San Diego. San Diego. So they decided to set out for San Diego. And they drove from Toronto to San Diego in an Austin mini Metro when
my mother was seven months pregnant with me. Yeah. That's exciting. You have to know you would have to drive in more than you complained when you were in the mini as I recall. So small to remember. No, but that thing was a Cadillac compared to the original mini Metro. Yeah. And I was just sitting there thinking, looking at this thing. I mean, I was quote unquote
a viable fetus. And if my mom had gotten in a premature labor or they decided to stay in Canada or whatever it is, so much of our success in our failure is just not our fault. It's just random. Life is frigging random. If there's, well, there's a lot of things I would impress on young people. But when things are going well for you, be humble. A lot of it is in your fault. And also when things are going really poorly for you, forgive
yourself. But I was thinking so much of everything about my blessings and challenges is just not my fault. It has to do with a mini. That was has to do with a mini Metro. Mini Metro, they got your little Scott fetus to California. What if it broke down in Oklahoma? Would I be an oil wildcat or now? Interesting. But think about it. Think about it. They ended up in San Diego. So what was my life? University of California, Los Angeles, University of
California, Berkeley, technology, all of these things were not my fault. I shall introduce my brother just sent me the passage that my grandfather came over on as a child from Italy on the Galea or whatever with his name. His name wasn't the name I thought it was. It was Rosario. His name was Henry later, but his real name was Rosario, which is interesting. We were thinking about getting Italian passports. I'll be honest with you. Like should we
get them? That's the new rich thing. Rich people are getting second and third passports. Well, you know, it's kind of cool. And I thought we cool for my mom. She's older. It'll be kind of interesting. But it's we have to figure out if we can because we're not clear if I think my brother said my grant, my great grandfather, renounced his allegiance to the king of Italy. So we have to figure out what the plans are. Anyway, it's kind of interesting.
Yeah, it is. It's random. My grandfather's family came over and other family members didn't. And here we are, right? They just the same family. We went back to that village. It's called Felito in Italy. And there are a lot of people who look like us who are there and it's a relatively poor town. And it's just randomness. Randomness. But what you just said is really interesting and profound in the sense that people are constantly asking
me, what's the difference? What difference is it? Or distinctions really stand out in terms of the UK in terms of culture and business from the US. And I think it all comes back
to what you just said. And that is throughout the 20th century, tens of thousands. And then I think a few hundred thousand people said in the UK, including my father, when he was 17 in Glasgow, and my mother, when she was, I think, 19 in London said, I'm going to get on a ship with almost no money and go to a place I have never been and try something new. That's right. And tens of millions decided not to and stay put. And that is the biggest difference between the culture and Britain and the US.
Interestingly, speaking of Germany, I did an interview. A great lesbian moment happened. It was sort of like sort of the, was it on cinematics? I just stopped that. I really got to stop that. I interviewed Rachel Maddo yesterday about her. Oh, you're kidding. Yes, it was so good. That's huge because I heard she doesn't like anybody. She doesn't, but she and I got along like peace and carrots. We had never spoken. It's the weirdest
lesbian non-meeting because you think we would. We have the same haircut and everything. And in media, did you guys cry for three hours and hug and watch Riverdale? We did not ever to meet again. Isn't that what all is? I have a Riverdale situation with you in a second, but very quickly. Anyway, it's a great interview. You have to listen to ultra. It's all about the influence of Germany and propaganda on the US and the first prequel.
Prequel is great, but the two podcasts are, I got to tell you, I know she's a great broadcaster, but she's an excellent broadcaster. I got this story is so great. You would love it, Scott Gallow. I was thinking of you the whole time. I'm listening to season two. And I, I lived in a part of season one, but I'm going to go back and relist in the season one. And it's all about Germans, America first, fascism. It's, you would just, and it's
a lot, it takes place a lot in Germany, which is interesting. But speaking of Riverdale and conspiracy theories, I went to the showing of Fly Me to the Moon with Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson. They were not there, but the director, Greg Berlanti, was there. And he did Riverdale. And I got to tell, it's all about the moon landing and also a fake moon landing. Right. So funny. The reviewers have been really mixed, but I got to tell you it was charming.
I mean, Amanda Katz has a high level for popular movies like Don Likeem. And she loved it. It was great. It was amazing. I think we're going to bring Greg on to talk about conspiracy theories and how he managed to thread the needle. And he did Riverdale. He did Dawson's Creek. He did all kinds of shows. They're both underrated actors. Scarlett Johansson was really good and her. She was really
good. She's amazing. She's amazing. And that movie was about divorce that was just so devastating and awful. Yeah. I didn't watch that one. And also Channing Tatum was outstanding in that movie about the wrestler who was Stephen Corral played that kind of billionaire who ended up murdering his brother. Yes. Oh, I loved you. This is the most beautiful. Scott, if you want to feel good, watch that movie. It was wonderful. And there was a line
in it. You know, it's about conspiracy theories. It's about lying. It's about, it has so much. I thought it had a lot of resonance as charming as it was. And one of the lines she says just is a throwaway line, but it's not where she says the truth is the truth, even if nobody believes it and the lie is a lie, even if everybody does. And it was a great line in it. I don't know how they made conspiracy theory of landing on the moon
funny, but they they and profound. It was really good. I wouldn't recommend it. Highly good. But just back to Rachel Maddow for a second. Yeah. I think Rachel Maddow defines you always here this this term. And she perfectly embodies it. Be so talented, they can't ignore you. That's correct. Because I find Rachel Maddow quite frankly, unlikeable. I think she comes across as indignant. She's hysterical. I think her public persona is not
very likable. I think there's still not as much now, but when she started in media, I think there was tremendous homophobia. I don't think there were a lot of people rooting for her. If you watch that MSNBC lineup for the last 10, 15 years, where they basically have progressive saying the same fucking thing over and over for 30 minutes or 60 minutes and then they go into the next person. There's everyone and there's Rachel Maddow. That's
correct. Because you can watch her show and you're like, okay, she worked harder today. She did more fact checking. She did more research. She came up with better economy of words. She came up with more apt, insightful analogies. She is so ridiculously fucking talented. I need you to listen to the podcast. You'll be like blown the fun. She's such a wank. She's a history wank. Her book on fascism prequel. She's talking about 20s and 30s Germany.
Not just that. It's insightful. It's you look at insights to today. We talked a lot about that. We talked about a lot of things. She's very funny actually. You know what I mean? I enjoy it because she was a little looser and she's very funny in a different way for me. Anyway, it was great. I also have a regression with Merth too. I got this bad ass lady week. I really appreciate that you don't sequester all the serious talent for your
other podcast. Up next week, the head of DEI from the National Forestry Service on Pivot. I am very grateful here. Oh my god. Come on. We get the literally off, off Broadway. No, we stand. I mean, okay, hold on. Gratitude Whitmer and Rachel Maddo. We're going to get the environmental reporter from Mother Jones next week. I'm bringing Gratitude next week. I'm going to put the Gratitude here. I dare you. I literally dare you bring governor Newsom on.
Do you want Shapiro? I'll bring Shapiro. Who do you want? I would love that. Shapiro on. Pick one. Newsom. Newsom. All right. I will get him to do it. I will get him to come on pivot 100 fucking percent. Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today, including growing number of calls for Biden to step aside. What a surprise. And Trump's spelling out plans for his second term
in the G.A.P.'s new platform. But first, the last time we talked, this is interesting because you look at this Apple and Microsoft are planning to participate in OpenAiz board as non observers. You said that was nonsense. They would have a lot of influence. But that's not the case anymore. Scott, I think you had influence. Microsoft has ditched it's not really. It's observer's status on the board. Apple will drop its plans to join them in antitrust scrutiny. So,
Kaplan's pressure is cow. This is how regulatory works as it causes scrutiny. It causes them to rethink things. But OpenAiz, new plan will be to host regular stakeholder meetings to share progress. EU and UK regulators are looking at Microsoft's partnership with OpenAiz, by the way, and so are others. So, why didn't anyone see this, but you and I? I got to call from someone in one of these agencies and they said, with respect to observer versus board seat, what exactly you're talking about.
And I told them this is, it makes absolutely no difference. And then I said, you've seen the map, all roads around AI, the most seminal, influential technology probably since the handheld, all lead back to the same players in an increasingly narrow group of players. In this person, Barely even responded to thank you and then hung up the phone. And I'm not, I'm, we can't take credit for this, but he basically, we did call it this person basically said, just so you know,
Scott, we're not stupid. Yeah. And the lobbyists and the FTC and the DOJ called the lobbyists or Apple, whoever said, guys, we're not stupid. And even if you're trying to like create a sub brand called, you know, open AI, I mean, I had read Hoffman on my podcast yesterday and I said, read, you started a company, he started inflection. You're on the board of Microsoft inflection,
just basically did an aqua hire into open AI. Oh, good. I'm glad you asked him. I mean, isn't this not only going to the same players, but going to, I mean, Apple and Microsoft, he was, oh, Scott, he's such a lovable guy. He's like, oh, you can't help it like that guy. By the way, I think he's turned into the conscience of technology. I agree. He is so thoughtful, so smart. He is so committed to democracy. Yes. And by the way, it pays billions of taxes in California
in Washington. It isn't piecing out and saying you need to spend more time with his parents and low tax states. Yeah, he does. He is the tech leader we want. I know. Did you see Elon attack? I'm trying to link it with Epstein. Of course. Anyways, I said to him straight up. I'm like, do you really think people are being fooled here? So what was his answer? Well, he said, well,
I said, basically, it wasn't inflection essentially acquired by open AI. I was like, no, we just had a board meeting and I'm like, boss, the hearts and lungs, all the key people, including the person who runs this is now at Microsoft or it anyways. He had somewhat of a thoughtful response, but be clear, the FTC and the DOJ, the next thing up, and this is not my prediction, they're going to announce a formal review here. It is so obvious in them saying,
just kidding, we're not going on these boards at the same time. That didn't happen accidentally. No, they're trying to save that off. I think it's going to happen. We should get speaking, which we should have cancer on this show. That's I like that. I will get cancer and I will get news in force. Okay. All right. Do you feel all right? Speaking with a group of bipartisan centers of announced that proposed ban on congressional stock trading to prevent members from
profiting, obviously, it still hasn't passed from insider knowledge. A legislation with ban lawmakers from buying and selling stocks and other covered investments. Lawmakers would also be required to divest from all covered investments starting in 2027. Penalties for violations are either be the officials monthly salary or 10% of the assets and violations, whichever is higher. That's pretty substantive. The main example of this, who would affect as Nancy Pelosi, whose
husband Paul is a multi-millionaire investor. Nancy opposed this type of legislation, obviously, until about 2022, when she didn't about face. I don't know if this is ever going to pass. This is a complex topic, by the way, but it's very clear that something has to happen here. They do know stuff. There's all kinds of insider information spinning around the Congress all the time. Thoughts?
This is ground zero for what is the most obvious example of corruption in government. Nancy Pelosi, it can be in a room with the head of the CDC with the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. And all of a sudden, find out that they're thinking about a mandate or massive multi-billion dollar subsidies of vaccines. And, oh, wait, the next thing you know, and I don't know if this specifically happened, but it can happen. Her husband decides to buy Moderna before the public knows.
Away from just assuming evil corruption, you can't help but create conflicts of interest, right? Like, even if you're assuming the very best from these people, it's too good, right? It's too hard not to say something to your spouse. It's too hard. When I was married to Megan at Google, it was difficult. And we never spoke about Google or anything she knew inside. But, you know, it was hard just I was covering some of that. And it just the opportunity to cheat is so broad and
large and easy. Or not even specific companies. You think, okay, there's whatever you get information on. There's this incredible new technology on keeping submarines quiet. And we just had the really, these really smart people in from general dynamics. And, oh, what do you know? It's a public company. They seem so smart. Hey, Paul, do you think we should buy,
do you know general dynamics? I mean, this is ground zero. This is corruption. And all of that, this legislation doesn't go far enough because the way I read it is, they can lose 10% of the value of the underlying stock. So you think it should be more? What would you just, you think they should just go to the whole profit? That's what I would say, right? It's a criminal violation. Okay. And you want elected to federal office has to put all of their publicly traded
stocks in a blind trust. Yeah. And someone else manages it. Because as long as you have access to this, even more obvious, if Nancy Pelosi calls the CEO of Reddit, Stephen Huffman and says, I love Reddit. I love you, Stephen. Is there any way you can give me allocation in the IPO? IPO's are priced below the price they're traditionally going to trade out on the first trade. What is he going to say? I'm sorry, Speaker Pelosi. I can't. She did that. That would get out.
No, that's not that's really a step too far. I suspect they don't do it. It's not illegal. No, but you know, it's interesting because when Megan went to the White House, she had to put everything in a blind trust, which was interesting. The White House, the disclosure stuff was so massive. It was crazy. I was sort of surprised. And they, you know, we were, I think divorced by that time and they were even asking me and I was like, well, not Mary. You know what I mean? Like it was a really
interesting. I remember thinking how massive the amount of information just the White House wanted and the fact that the Congress doesn't do this seems ridiculous. It gives people the sense that the game is rigged. Yeah. And either Nancy and Paul Pelosi are just genius investors or her access to information, non-public material information that would be considered insider information for any private citizen have resulted in her ability to amass tens of millions of dollars. And
quite frankly, that's part of the reason we don't have enough churn. People should do service and then they should leave and make money and go make money or or pay them more in salaries. So they're not tempted to engage in this type of corruption. Yeah. It's interesting how close the husband and wife should be because there's a lot of that. Like there's, let's go with Nancy. There's also there was a Republican senator who there was a very clear as wife. He sold his
stock after a briefing or whatever. You know, I think they should just like other people inside of trading. They should be investigated in the same exact manner and whatever regular people have to put up with in that case, they should put up with. It's very hard not to accuse them of pronism. Yeah. And to feel like the game isn't rigged against the little guy. Yeah. When our elected officials can treat, they have more access to sensitive information than any
individuals in the world. That's true. That's true. Interesting. Here's an interesting piece of fact. A Tesla's market share of EVs in the US has dropped below 50% for the first time. Oh, right again, we are that it was going to the Tesla accounted for 49.7% of EV sales in the quarter down from 59% last year. The company's global sales fell almost 5% in the second quarter. The US electric vehicle sales overall grew by 11%. So it's a Tesla problem. It's not going to catch up
again. It's only going down. Their market share is only everybody. I'm sorry to tell you. This is what happens with competition. Thank you, Tesla for seeding the market. But what's going to happen to you is what happens to every other first product. Except maybe the iPhone, I guess. But there's a lot of really good competitors. You're not offering products that are new and fresh, except for that stupid fucking cyber truck, which apparently he now wants to ride on Mars. But that's another story.
So this is no surprise to us at all. Yeah, but to be fair, the market declines are more than compensated by the growth of the overall market and the firm. It took a real dive. It took a real dive there for a minute. Correct. So yeah, I had it gone down for a while. It was one of the worst reformers, but it has made up a ton of ground in the last 30 days. And why is that explain Mr. Stockgubruk? Why not? The market is a prediction machine. And it attempts to discern a
ton of signals around how the company is doing. And then basically the value of a stock is based on its current cash flow. And then the present value of its growth opportunity. And so the market is trying to guess what that growth opportunity is. And it sets a series of expectations, including analysts and the company itself will say we expect to sell, deliver this many cars at this margin. And the last time a few weeks ago, they announced what they had actually done. They had exceeded
those expectations. Yeah, they weren't as bad. Yes, that's right. But the company, I mean, a lot of people saying that products getting tired, they have some charger problems, maintenance problems. But the reality is the company has blown away expectations. And the stock has been on an absolute terror. The last 30 or 60 days. Yeah, in May, the low was 142, which was quite low. And now it's at 265. That is a tear. People are now baking that in that they're going to be, but I'm talking
about their global market. Even as the area is growing, Tesla's going to get smaller and smaller, because there's a more market better. Well, as a percentage, yes, it would be impossible in that market to maintain 50% share. And the place that is really just the EV market is just incredible is China. And they expect that a third of the cars in the road by 2030, which isn't that far away, will be EVs. I mean, the reason why Tesla will probably continue to perform is it's really a
branding thing. China makes a better EV than Tesla or the US on a value basis. But Tesla's a global brand that means I'm concerned about the environment and I'm rich, which is very sexy. And the strangest thing about China, I've always found is that it's the second largest economy, name one global brand that's come out of China. I mean, there's global brands that have come out of brands. It'll amazing brands, Japan, South Korea, Samsung, there's amazing brands that come out of
every single market. But the second largest economy in the world for the life of it has not been able to make global brands. Well, the only thing is I would say is this investor Bill Gross, not the not the tech Bill Gross, the debt guy, the debt guy, right? He says Tesla is acting like a mean stock, sagging fundamentals straight up price action. But then there seems to be a new moon stock every day now, more pump and dump. So the buyer beware is what I would say.
I mean, it's just it trades it, it trades at a PE of 68. And I think most car companies are in a state of industry that like single digit be used. It's still. He launched it and keep these things up. Okay, let's get to our first big story. President Biden made it clear that he's not ending his campaign, but the pressure on him to drop out continues as we can see Pelosi. Man, is she she's one deaf politician. I'll tell you that. She opened that door up again as it was
subsiding. It was closing, giving Biden more breathing room. And she said the time is running short for Biden to make a decision during an appearance on Morning Joe, which is what the show Joe Biden watches. He's like, we're waiting for him to make a decision, even though he's made a decision. It was just it was she carefully calibrated that and it essentially was what I understand is giving the green light to people to come out after NATO is over to oppose the Biden and the
Democratic Party. A Democratic Senator Pete Welch became the first senator call for Biden to exit the race in a wash. I thought I thought Bennett was before him. No, no, Bennett is being in the middle. He was on Caitlyn Collins. He didn't quite say it. I'd like him to make a decision is what Bennett saying. Didn't he also say that if he stays in the race, we lose the Senate and the they did, but he will not tell him to say it's so funny to watch them pretzel themselves. Yes,
he said we're going to lose, but then he didn't fall it with so he should leave. It's the silent so he should leave. But this guy said he should leave. Now speaking of the most famous person who said he should leave George Clooney, who hosted a huge fundraiser for Biden last month, is asking the president and his candidacy in a New York Times essay writing, one battle he cannot win as a fight against time. He sounds like Scott Galloway.
Father time has no time for you. He wrote this piece in New York Times which I thought was very good. I think the most devastating part of his not so much. He's a big fundraiser for the Democrats. A lot of people agree with him. Michael Douglas, who was a big Biden person who raised a lot of money, said George has a valid point. Everyone is sort of scooching up to the line that Nancy Pelosi has allowed them to do essentially. Apparently Jeff Katsenberg tried to get him not to do it. Obama,
he talked, but Obama didn't ask him not to do it, which is interesting. In any case, it was a huge splash. It's two weeks since the debate and these calls have not gone away. By the way, we're recording this ahead of Biden giving a news conference at the NATO Summit Thursday evening. We'll come back if he falls down and breaks the hip. The big boy press conference. Big boy. By the way, that's the worst branding in history. That's the White House. I thought it was
a joke. No, it's the White House calling it the big boy presser. It was Kareen Jo and Pierre. I was like, Kareen, don't sit big boy. Don't sit big boy. Big boy. It sounds like you're teaching him how to pee. He's also set to sit down with NBC's Lesser Holes on Monday for an interview. NBC is also reporting that the Biden campaign has suffered a major slowdown in donations. The campaign has pushed back on that. Also, George Stephanopoulos caught on the street,
walking around one day and after the interview was like, you can't make it for more years. He shouldn't said that probably, but he did. It got caught on tape. It's caught. What do you think? What do you think? It's unfortunately tragically comic, but when all these Democrats keep asking Biden, urging him to make a decision, he makes it and then they ask him to make it again. Not that decision. No, is there any way
you could go back and think some more and come back with a different decision? I just... I think so much of it is core to our flaw as a party. The wonderful thing about Democrats is they're incredibly optimistic and they have this vision of what the world should be like. They want it better tomorrow. Progressive ideology or woke or whatever you want to call it. It's rooted in aspiration and the hopeful things of the right to make your own decisions to be happy. With the side order of
shaming people will go. To embrace who you are. But then it's like, okay, we've decided biology should adopt our views on ageism and biology has said hold my beer. And if it was anything, if it was a sex scandal, a crime scandal, a... A scandal will be good right now. Huge. Oh, that would boost his ratings, unfortunately. If it was anything a failed invasion, they could probably handle anything. But here's the thing. The only thing we know about this problem is that every minute
of every hour of every day, this problem gets worse. And what they're not focusing on and I thought was the most damaging thing in my view was in the Steffanopolis interview, he refused to agree to take a cognitive test. Right. Although Gretchen Whitmer yesterday and another and he was like, couldn't hurt if he did it. Like they're all like stepping around old man Biden. It's the care.
If you're running for president and you're going to literally have your finger on the button and you're the front line against a global trend towards extremism and anti-semitism and gender apartheid. And there are real serious doubts amongst your internal, your inner circle about your cognitive ability. And you're so confident that this isn't a problem. Why on earth would you or your advisors not say, of course, take the end this. Take the cognitive test. But here's the
thing. The people who know him and the people who around him and him that said, don't get near a fucking cognitive test. That's correct. I don't think I'd pass a cognitive test. But let me, let's talk about that. He could do two things. Run out the clock. That's what he seems to be doing and keeping making decision. They don't like this decision. I like the numbers. I have to come out and say it versus them like walking around it sideways. But which is tell your friend Michael
Bennett that like come on Michael. Come on to be clear. What Senator Bennett, think of the situation here. This is an absolutely no wins situation because if you come out, if you come out against him and he wins, your persona non grata and the white house to do anything about it. No, no, no, your persona non grata, the Democratic party. You were that turncoat. If you say nothing, right? And he wins or he loses, you're fine. It's nothing but downside other than fidelity to
the country right now. And Trump. So what they're all doing is they're all trying to have their cake and eat it too. I wouldn't I would urge the president to speak to some outsiders and experts. Jesus Christ. Grow a fucking pair. I'll tell you the Emanuel brother Zeke Emanuel especially too. It is brother's been very loud now. But Zeke Emanuel is making a cognitive case, which is interesting. He's a doctor obviously very famous doctor. I'm very close to Biden. What did he say?
I'm not familiar. Oh, he did a whole thing saying he needs to step down. I mean, it's the fucking step down. So interestingly, Biden has gone on the offense defiant in interviews, lashing out what he calls the elites, the Democratic party. I don't like this Biden. I don't like angry old man Biden. Honestly, anyone who's dealt with an elderly parent, like it sucks to go up against someone who wants to do things that can't anymore. It is the worst feeling. It's the worst thing to do.
They're terrible to you. And I'm not talking about anyone specifically. But yes, I am. But I got to tell you, I don't like this how they're going on the offense, including big boy interview. It's just astonishing how badly I think their messaging this talk about it from a marketing point of view. From a marketing point of view, there would be or brand strategy point of view, there's two major messages or two major pieces of advice that you want to give the Biden campaign right now. And
one they're doing and the other they need to do if they survived this. The first is it's actually quite smart to position that the people calling for him to step down are all these white elites. That is smart because he can say, I'm for you. I'm for now in whites. I'm fighting every day for regular people. I have continued to win for you. I will continue to fight for you. And despite the fact that a bunch of blowhard podcasters and rich white people are saying, I should stand down,
the cultural elites, I'm going to continue to fight for you. I think that is a smart positioning. The voters away ahead of Washington on this issue a long time ago, but go ahead. But that's the right to position, if you will, us as these elites trying to tell other voters how to do and him what to do. That is a good positioning. Now, the biggest and most obvious and strongest piece of advice I would give the Biden campaign should they survive this and I don't
think they will, but should they they can no longer ever say Biden or White House. Any communication, any messages, any labels has to come from one brand only. Team Biden. Yeah. Team Biden. This is not Joseph Biden. This is team Biden. So his, his, his healthcare aids. Anyway, he's got a position it as I have assembled the most thoughtful talented group of people. I'm not firing them. They're not going to end up in jail. I'm not going to call them dumb as
rock. They're not going to start talking about conspiracy theory and end up in prison. I have the presidency is an ability to have instincts slow thinking. Let's be honest, folks. I'm out of quick on my feet, but I have assembled the most talented team in the world. Every communication should come from team Biden. Having said that, I still care. I still don't think. I mean, I'm biased. I'm too close to it. I'm curious what you think, but I think the pressure is only mounting despite all
the attempts to shame everybody back into sticking their head up their ass. I don't think it's working. Well, one of the things, you know, I was just thinking this morning, of course, we're waiting for this press conference, but it's like turning on whether he can do a press conference. Like, that's where like, let's see if he does the press conference. Well, are you kidding me? Like that? That's the bar. That's like the bar is what's lower than the ground. It's like, and you're losing,
and you're losing. You keep losing to this felon. Like, what? What's really interesting to me. Let me actually read the Zika manual things. I think you'll really like it. For those 75 years or older, it's time to retire from public office. Dare I say I agree with my brother, Ari, we need a mandatory age limit for all federal electric officials and all federal judges. No one should serve
past 75. Sure, some people will be capable of serving past 75, but just as FBI agents, pilots, foreign service officers and board members at some corporations have a mandatory retirement ages. So should federal elected officials and judges in a country of 330 million. There are certainly plenty of competent people for these jobs. And practically speaking of mandatory retirement ages, administratively easy and fair within age minimum in the Constitution, the framers should have
added an age maximum as well. Let's fix that deficiency. Perfect. We need age gating on the lower end and the higher end. Yeah. We need more ages in this country. Yeah. Right. Right. So, you know, I just, it's just I think it's going to mount. It's going to mount. He's going to be. He's going to call and break a hip at some point. I'm in Germany watching football. Like what is your, you're in DC? What is your sense of the moment? Everyone is sort of like trying to look away. I, you know, I
sent you that desi Lydik thing from Daily Show. It's like, you know, someone should the bed at Goodas Paul Trusthouse. Everyone is pretending. They're not pretending. They're saying he should leave that no one will say it. Right? None of the big dogs will say it. They'll say it to you, soda, mocha. It's a lot of what the fuck are we going to do? Right? That's what it is. What the fuck are we going to do? And then they get pushed back by people like, well, that's the plant.
There's a lot of, I'll tell you that never trumpers are very much on Biden's side saying, this is a big mistake. Like Mike Madrid, who I respect a lot of Rick Wilson. We both know Stuart Stevens. All the Republicans are like, don't at the same time. There's been a lot of reporting that the Trump people really want Biden to be his father. Oh, yeah. So it's interesting. I'm, I need to talk to them because I like Mike Madrid, but he's doing too much like shaming like,
oh, you're a bed wetter. I don't like that. Like have a good argument. And there are a lot of people who I think are smarter like, well, what are we going to do? I know in a room, they have figured out what to do. Right? There is things to do. And I think the question is whether it's worth the risk or not. But at this point, it's just not going to go away. And everyone's waiting for him to fall.
That's really, that's a really bad situation. And no matter it's not the media's fault, it is not, you know, you and I get slathered all the time by people and, you know, oddly enough, George Han just got slathered like by saying he's old. That's all by the sort of the blue mega, which is what they are. And I think it's just not going to, it's not going to end well. Like, right? It's just, as you can see, it's like age is age as George Clooney says age is age and they can attack George
Clooney all they want, you know, or John Stewart or anyone else. And I get it's all white guys. But boy, if white guys are saying it, you know, I do get that, you know, the congressional black caucus is back in Biden, the Hispanic caucus is back in him. But then some of the members don't like it. If you're not 100% behind him at this point, it means you want to be stepped down. That's the way I see it. Yeah. What about the other decision? Nese Pelosi, let me tell you, she can serve
until she's 103. She's one clever. You know, they, which she did is since she's not running the place and she was so good at running the fucking place, she let the members think about it and cogitate. But once it had to happen, she brought down the hammer. What she's doing here is she's taking the pressure off Hakeem Jeffries by being the one to raise this, right? So she's like, I'll go out there and take the fire, right? But she did it in such a deft way. We're behind him. If he
makes a decision, like we're waiting for his decision, and it's like he made it. Can you go decide on that more, please? It was so clever. And I know she probably tested it with all of them. They all agreed on it, which I'd love to be in that meeting where they all decide how to do it, like as a group. That would have been a hysterical meeting. Schumer is apparently, even though he goes on with Joe, is apparently like maybe not so much with Joe. And he's a little less deft than she
is. Yeah, but also, don't you think these people are also worried about people starting to question their own age? Yes, they will. Schumer 73 plus is 83. At some point do people say now do Pelosi? Yes, except it literally. I wouldn't turn my back on that lady, but I agree. Yes. Comment then a question to you. Okay. I had Anthony Scaremucci on the Prophetic Pod yesterday. Yeah. And I said, I asked him a bunch of questions about the inner workings of the White House for
the 11 days he was there. And I said, who is Trump most scared of? And he said the candidate that would that scares the shit out of Trump because he's such a narcissist and he's so focused on appearances. His nightmare is new. Some. That's the call of the message he doesn't want to get. Is it the Democrats of chosen news? And because he said he's very look-sist and he's really worried about how he would appear standing next to governor Newsom. He looked like a jab at the fucking
hot. That's what he looked like. My question to you is who is and maybe it's day and it's not one person it's day. But who could march up to the White House or go public with you've got to step down and actually move the needle right now? We know it's not George Clooney. We know it's not Michael Bennett and you know, who could do Pelosi and Schumer went up there and said just like the Barry Goldwater thing saying they're not voting for you and that includes me. We're going to say
something public that could be one thing. I think Obama and Clinton, Bush, all together, something like that. Obviously Taylor Swift. I have talked about that. That's where we are. That's where we are. I mean, like whatever. You know, I think not in that order, not in that order. The president's the president's a renancy and the person. I think one of the problems that seems to be happening is Hunter Biden's in there, right? Pushing him. That's the
worrisome. I've heard that from a lot of people. I think you don't need family members with their own self interest in there and they'll, it's interesting given I'm an elderly parent my mom and we're all together on how we want to keep her safe, right? And even though we get slings and arrows over it from her and I think it's really we're doing it because we love her and it's in our interests. And in this case, it seems flipped, right? They're just like putting up with it or
pressuring him in a weird way. I don't know. I'd have to get in there. I mean, they're very proud people and some of the Biden people I know or Kara, you've got to support our president and I go, I can't. I just can't. I'm sorry. Like, oof. I mean, again, I think I think I think you're four quadrants are correct if he leaves and they win. He's the biggest here on history and if he leaves and they don't win, he's okay. If he stays and loses, it's the end of his legacy and he has
a wonderful legacy. So anyway, I think that's the story right now, at least in Washington. All right, let's go in a quick break. We come back. We'll talk about the GOP's new platform, what it means for tech and take a listener mail question on choosing colleges. Oh, that's a good one. Support for this podcast comes from Oracle. AI might be the most important technological shift since the invention of the internet. It's storming every industry and literally billions of dollars are
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What does it mean for us and for society? Join host Rafi Cracorian, Chief Technology Officer at Emerson Collective for season two of Technically Optimistic, where he'll take you on a deep dive into how our data is being used and what we can do about it. How do we advocate for ourselves and our privacy so that we can have control over our information and say in how technology evolves?
From surveillance to social media, reproductive rights to criminal justice reform, Cracorian leads us into territories both familiar and unexpected with openness and genuine curiosity. Encouraging us to remain technically optimistic in the face of big data. New episodes of Technically Optimistic drop every Wednesday. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Scott, we're back with our second big story. The Republican National Convention gets underway
next week. The party approved its 2024 platform on Monday, giving us a glimpse at what a Trump's second term might look like. It sounds awful in every single way. The platform reads like a Trump rally speech and features a list of 20 promises, including Stop the Migrant Invasion, which we're still waiting for that caravan. Cancel the elected vehicle mandate at prevent World War 3. Okay. The language on abortion, same-sex marriage has also been paired down and softened.
Gays can stay married, apparently, according to Donald Trump. Thanks, Donald. You fucking asshole. He had a rally recently, where he was as loony as it's all baked in, but he was loonyer than ever. Still talking about sharks and Hannibal Lecter and all kinds of this and that. I'm speaking of cognitive disabilities. I know people say we should say more about it. He is crazy. Everybody, we have said it over and over again and he's vicious. He's crazy and vicious and corrupt
and a criminal. So there, I hope that's enough. What do you think about this vision that they've laid out? They're certainly trying to soften. We've been hearing a lot, thankfully, about Project 2025 in recent weeks, a proposal for massive overhaul of the federal government. Getting rid of NOAA is on our list. The project backed by Trump allies, very close Trump allies, includes an expansion of executive powers, disbanding the Department of Education, shredding climate
protections. Trump has recently distanced himself from the plan claiming you know nothing about it, which is nonsense. He also was like, I wish them good luck. It was very similar to a statement he gave about Jolaine Maxwell of the famous Epstein saying, I don't really know her, and but I wish her good luck. And of course, there's 90 pictures of him with her. So what do you think about this? So as frightening as Biden's performance has been,
we don't want to talk about this, but Trump has actually been very on message. He's been much more disciplined this time. And he realizes that he's basically said, we, if we just pivot a little bit to the metal and we're not as terribly frightening, what's going on here is we've seemed to for it. And that's corsage and Amy Coney Barrett in their Senate testimony confirmation hearings, pretending to be reasonable. And then once they're on the court, they decide to overturn Roe v. Wade,
which they said under oath in front of the Senate was the style of precedent. My sense is Trump is very on message. I forget the name of the woman, the scare Mucci says he's the most powerful woman in Washington right now. But think about it. He's gone totally quiet around the debate. He's softening the stuff around bodily autonomy, but be clear folks. It's now one in five women have to leave their state to terminate a pregnancy. It's going to go to two in five, three in five,
and maybe more. Yeah. And this whole 20, whatever they're calling it, 25. What if they call it a 25 project, 20, 25? I mean, it's your, you're re through it. And it's, it's a handmaidens tale booklet. It's okay. Be clear folks. The thing about these things is we make them say, you're believing they're so fucking crazy, they could never happen. No, they can happen.
It can happen. Yeah. So from a messaging standpoint, Trump's trying to distance himself, but it is a looking glass into what some of the most powerful people who will have the greatest audience voice and sway on the White House are thinking. Yeah, absolutely. And as I mentioned, Trump is often the GOP stance on abortion and marriage equality. New platforms does not reference a national abortion ban. The first time it's been omitted in 40 years of these platforms. Leave
it to the state, which is almost even worse. There's no longer a reference to traditional marriage as between one man and one woman that's been in there for a long time. Bad marketing for them. You're right. He's softening. He's softening the stance. Oh, I'm reasonable, but he is not reasonable people. Let us be absolutely fucking clear. He will also has have people in there, like Stephen Miller, who are absolutely. They want to build giant camps and deport people.
They want to put millions of people under under arrest for existing essentially. There's also major implications for tech and all of this. The plan calls for fewer restrictions on cryptocurrency. They all their pals and that repealing Biden's executive order on AI, which is quite a good one actually. And bolstering commercial space exploration. This is all, this must be an Elon Musk must have called them and put them in. It signals a laissez-faire if not outright cozy approach
to emerging sectors as the Washington Post put it. That's all Elon Musk. So, you know, just FYI, tech regulation is already a struggle. There won't be any tech regulation and government investment in commercial space exploration would of course be a boon for Musk. And also Jeff Bezos, by the way. Now, it's interesting that some tech leaders are playing nice some aren't like read Hoffman isn't and what was really frightening. And I know you don't like Mark Zuckerberg, but Trump threatened him
in a way that sounded like a tinhorn dictator. He said post on true social, the election fraudsters will be imprisoned if he gets elected in November. Any name check Zuckerberg. Mark Zucker there's a lot of things being done election fraudster. And the fact that he's threatened imprisonment over his stupid election denial lies is really I had to defend Mark. This is, look, if we want to take put Mark in prison, let's put in the trial, prove the case, do the things like
what a legal democracy does. That's different than what Trump did here, which is heinous. Absolutely heinous. There's a clear thick, indelible line between a democracy and fascism. And one of those lines that there's sharper leaf between an autocracy and a democracy is that we have decided that when people are elected to power, they can't use
federal agencies to go after their political enemies. And when you start threatening to put your political enemies in prison and what he referenced was at Zuckerberg donated 400 million and on profits, helping election offices with mail-in voting, getting falsely accused of violating campaign finance laws. By the way, he was cleared by the federal election commission. This is stepping over that line into fascism. It's not about Mark Zuckerberg. It's about
President Biden has never said, I hate Elon Musk. I think he's a threat to democracy. I hate what he's doing in Ukraine. I'm sickening my DOJ on him. When you directly say I'm going to try and put someone in prison if I'm elected, this is what, and what you're dealing with here is what happens in the societies. And unfortunately, we're so entitled and we enjoyed so many freedoms of which we're not in touch with the sacrifice and the commitment and the expense to
maintain these freedoms. We don't realize that when you're living in an autocracy, everyone goes quiet because when you come out against Trump and say, this is a fascist, this is a misogynist,
this is a convicted felon, you risk something. And so people stop engaging in a democracy which includes open, honest debate, the downside to being open and honest around what you think of Trump is much greater than the downside to being open and honest about what you think about the true Democrat, because he's not going to pursue you as a political enemy using the full power, the federal government. So just threatening to weaponize our agencies and the government. That should be
disqualifying and everyone uses the word disqualifying. But this is what it's like to live in Iran or Russia where people do the math and go, I don't even want to have an open conversation. I'm going to tell my children and my friends never speak out against this person because the downside is greater. Whereas there's someone who's a Democrat, oh yeah, speak out against them because there's no downside if you're to speaking your mind. This is what it's like to live in an autocracy. I mean,
I'm not, I want to be clear. I'm not scared. But the thought has crossed my mind. If Donald Trump is elected, it's not the threat of some sort of government regulation or something. I'm not, I'm not saying we'd be put in jail. But do they pass legislation that is damaging to you and your family? This isn't how we move away from a democracy. Can I just tell you what just happened in the Senate Judiciary Committee right yesterday
that any adbencipeiro who I said is a very good entrepreneur ban. So just like I'm sorry your
dick is so small that you have to constantly attack me. But when a conservative key, we just detestify when a conservative competitor to legacy media arises members of the legacy media and their political allies rush to paint such competitors as dangerous, the commentator, Cara Swisher on the New York Times example told the head of YouTube that my videos on daily wire were a gateway drug that lead children, including your teenage son to watch neo-Nazi content,
never mind the fact that I'm at orthodox Jew. She Ben, you have to stop lying about this. This is like, the, in he's of course, you know, whatever, he just needs to conserve their just such liars and they create real problems because like, and now I'm getting like pilloried on Twitter because I didn't do that. I said, when he asked come to me to watch Ben Shapiro, I said absolutely, I think he's an idiot, but you decide for yourself, which I think is the correct answer to any child, you know,
Alex listened and then he didn't like him like this. That was it. That was the time thing. And what I said that I found more troubling was not so much the idiotic Ben Shapiro content, which I continue to think is idiotic. I know you don't as much as I do, but what I said is what happened was it wasn't Ben Shapiro's fault, but the algorithm led to stuff that was really troubling when you, when you watched him, it kept going down a rabbit hole. It was not Ben Shapiro's gateway drug fault,
Ben. I'm so sorry. You're not a drug dealer. What it was was YouTube. I was complaining about the YouTube algorithm that pushed people to to worsen more, some more things, which has been studied and studied and studied again and again. And that was what I was talking about. But this is the kind of like twisting as I was referencing that line from flying into the moon, which is Ben, a lie as a lie, even if you believe it. I'm sorry. That is a lie that you're telling to people. You need to stop.
You can call me if you like and listen again. And my whole point was that the YouTube algorithm was the problem, not you, although I personally think you're a problem. Anyway, stop. Go ahead. I'm sorry. I didn't know that was happening on Twitter. This is one of those things I'm woefully ignorant about. No, it happened in the Senate. What is the Senate Judiciary Committee? Whatever he's doing. But the first thing he's he's using you is a dog whistle because he knows
a lot of conservatives have issues with you and your viewpoint. But a larger point, I think that people should draw from this. We make a lot of personal attacks and that sounds terrible, but we say disparaging things about individuals personal character and behavior. That is a personal attack. And I struggle with it because it's not something you want to be known for. And oftentimes people aren't able to defend themselves. So I have a code around this. And when I tell young men,
they're code around a personal attack or the code I follow is a following. I will only ever reference someone's individual character and behavior in a negative light. On one condition, they have to be much more powerful than me. Because I have power now and every day in large part because of this podcast and you and some of the exposure, I get more and more power and more influence. And so as a general rule, a guy like Ben Shapiro to throw you up is like red meat and mischaracterize
your words. It's not only wrong, but even more so. Ben is actually because of his listenership is very powerful. Correct. And he should not be personally attacking anyone that is not he can attack Biden. I get it. He's a commentator. He can attack George Soros. I think George Soros is more powerful than Ben Shapiro. Whatever he can attack, you know, whatever, Macron or whatever it is, he and I don't like his political viewpoints fine. But as a general rule and I'm this is going
to sound sexist as a man. Men are supposed to be protectors. We're supposed to be in service. Okay. We're supposed to be in my view thinking about how we before we even judge, before you even evaluate, we move to protection. That is our go to move is protection. And if you're in a position like Ben Shapiro, you do not make personal attacks against anyone that is adjacent or below you. Is that a personal take? He's just mischaracterize not calling me like it's con. That's a personal
attack. Look what I can only imagine what's happening. Do you want Twitter? Well, it's just it's just it's not I get that that's the people who follow him also. Let me just say let me get invitation to Ben Shapiro. Come and meet me and my son. We will explain to you what happened. And he will tell you I told him to listen to you. He didn't like you all by yourself. And maybe he likes you now. I don't know. I don't know what he listens to. He does he's he's over 18. He can
do whatever he wants. You know what the best thing that happened to Ben Shapiro is what Candace Owens. You want to talk about someone who's just fucking bad. Well, he handled that well. I have to say he did a handled a well and and now she's she's accusing she's trying to keep this conspiracy theory alive. Have you heard this thing about McCrom's wife? No, what? Forget it then. I don't want to bring up. What is
Oh, she's a beard? No, that she's actually a man. And I mean, okay, I actually I'm that Candace Owens at our conference. She was very pleasant. I actually really enjoyed meeting her. I did not. I mean, okay. Well, I like on the certain level. I really want to like. Yeah. A woman of color who doesn't immediately fit into the stereotype of what her political view should be. She's
also I got a give it to her. She's fearless. She's compelling. She's decided to run with his conspiracy theory that is nothing but the following conspiratorial clickbait that is anti trans. But she does that all the time. Scott. That's the only thing I would say to you. It's pleasant to she maybe. But see when Ben Shapiro, but that's my point. Ben Shapiro then says she's an anti-Semite and a weirdo. I
want nothing to do with her and she's removed. He comes across as reasonable. Okay. Let's listen to a listener question. It's a good one. This question comes from Sage. I love that name. Let's listen. Hi, Karen Scott. My name is Sage and I've been listening to y'all since eighth grade. Kara, you really hooked me with sway. I just want to say excitedly I'm going into my senior year and you guys have been such a big influence on me. I love hearing your perspectives. You constantly
challenge me to think about issues to a deeper degree. Do you guys have any advice on how to decide what colleges to apply to and where I should go? I sure you guys are talking about how I'll submit this choice. I would like some similar advice. Also please share any advice you guys have for a senior in high school, what I should be focusing on and how do I position myself to have a fulfilled and successful life. Thank you guys so much. Here's your inspiration.
Oh my god. It's good. We're having influence on the young people. That's literally other than team England winning last night. That's the second best thing that's happened to me. Oh my god. So we have, you know, we do have a lot of people, young people, who come up to me a lot and talk about those. They like being challenged and they want like hearing disagreement done well. In any case, gosh, sage, what a big. Oh wow. I think you're going to be fine. I think we should
be asking you for advice. Just be you. That's it. That's all I got to say. No, actually, let me tell you, my senior Jeffrey swisher just put a picture of me in my senior year with a terrible haircut. I saw that. You look you little sexy mix. He's not my brother anymore. I'm turning him in. You little, you little I'll have sex with the guys would make out with the ladies. Anyway, it's funny. Now that you're 60, you look 40 when you were 18, you look 40.
You've just been 40 year-old life. That's correct. I think I must have been 16, because I went to college. You look, you're 16 in that photo. 16 is got to be. You look like next up on Rachel Matto journalist. You look 40. You look exactly the same. Anyway, let's get back to sage. Let me just tell you something. I did not get into any of the colleges. I didn't get it to Stanford. I didn't get into Brown. I didn't get to Yale. Did I
get way listed at Princeton? I didn't get anything in Georgetown was my backup school at the time. It was a backup school. I regretfully, I did. I had four very good years there. Let me say, it's just you're not going to get everything you want. You never know as we talk to the beginning of this podcast. Life is random. What you managed to get into, sometimes is a good thing. It was great that I came to Washington and worked in Congress and I worked for the Washington Post.
Everything follows a river to the next thing. I wouldn't think too hard or worry too much. Just figure out where you want to place you want to live. You want to be in a warm climate. Issue Alex out with Michigan was the cold. Weather was one of his things, but then he decided he really, really liked Michigan a lot. I think you just decide where you want to live or what has a really good program for the things you're in. Also, you don't know your major is going to be
your major. You may shift. I thought I was going in the CIA. I thought I was going into law or the military. I did an opposite thing. Be open to that. Then don't worry about it too much. Honestly, Port College seniors, people, I have a friend who I just ran into as an incoming senior or rising senior. I did not purposely ask him about college because they get asked that a lot. So just be nice to people that ask you about it, but I get that it's really too much.
But it's not, this is just one way station along in a very long life. Don't worry. Just enjoy yourself. Senior year should be fun. I would think. Yeah, just picking up on what you said, it's very hard. I wish I'd learned this one out as much younger, but nothing's ever as good or as bad as it seems. Try not to fall in love with anyone's school. Apply to a bunch. I only had one option because I needed to live at home
because I didn't have any money. So I applied to UCLA and I didn't get in and I was just devastated. And my mom said, is there anything we can do? And I'm like, of course, there's nothing we can do. I've been rejected and she found out there was an appeal process and I've peeled and I got it. And that's the reason I'm here with you. But apply to a bunch of schools and then be a consumer.
Keep in mind, once you get into hopefully more than one school, they need you more than you need them and start playing them off against each other for financial aid because keep in mind, despite our cardigans and ability in this veneer that were public servants, we are fucking horrors that will attempt to soak you and your family for all your disposable income. So do this. Get into two or three schools and then call all of them and say, what financial aid can you offer me
and play them off against each other? That's my advice around college too. In terms of a core skill, the one to develop while you have some extra time, the one skill that will endure. It's not computer science, it's not civics, it's not math, it's not, it's the following, it's
storytelling. So if you have the opportunity to journal, to write for your school newspaper, to give presentations, to learn PowerPoint, whatever it is, try and take some time to really if you can develop your communication skills because that storytelling is the core confidence that will endure the test of time. And then on a personal note, the thing I wish I had done, you know, there's all these things on TikTok saying that 90% of the time you will spend with your
kids is from zero to 18. And you know, so when your kids 17 or 18, and I think about this a lot, I'm like 80% of the time I have with my 16 year old was gone. It's probably more like 90% because it's already spent. And I wasn't ready for it and it's been very upsetting for me. But what I would say to someone who's a senior in high school is flip that. And that is the majority of your time with your parents is coming to an end. And something I wish I had done. I
don't know how you were. I wish I'd been kinder to my mother that last year because there's a very natural instinct when you're a teenage girl or teenage boy to I don't want to say be unkind, but you're starting to rebel a little bit and you're starting to find everything that your parents do is being really uncool. And when I look back, especially, you know, single mom struggling, I wish I'd just been a little kinder. Oh, that's sweet. I have to say my kids were kind because
COVID happened. And so I spent a lot of time with them by need. That was the greatest, the only gift of COVID was that we spent so much time together. And then they formed a lot of bonds with my little kids. And so that was a gift. And I agree you should you should totally spend time with your parents are probably cool since you're so cool. The last thing I would say is you don't have
to go to college. There's other choices. This young woman is going to college care. No, she is, but I'm just saying there's you don't have to go that year like Louis took a year off for the COVID thing. You know, you could do a lot of things like it's not don't rush into adulthood. Don't be a juvenile and spend all your parents money. But you know, get a job. You know, you could do other things necessarily. But you know, you really do have one life. This is just one of the things on
it. And that's what you should think about. Otherwise, we're glad we challenge you and being being influenced on you. Again, I apologize for Scott's penis jokes, but you're going to get those in life. And so you need to start after singing. Yeah, something tells me she's, she's heard worse. But yeah, apply to a bunch of schools. Yeah. Get on the debate team and hang out and be nice to your parents where you're still at home. Thank you, Sage. That is lovely. It makes us
feel better. You're actually helping us more than we're helping you. Anyway, if you've got a question you're only like answered and has to be as good as stages, send it our way. Go to nymag.com slash pivot. Send a question for the shower call 85551 pivot. All right, Scott, one more quick break will be back for your prediction. There's a lot of things you might say when your small business has a problem. You've got to be kidding me. Come on. Well, I didn't see that one coming. But that won't
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Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Support for pivot comes from Vanta. When it comes to ensuring your company has top-notch security practices, things can get complicated fast. With Vanta, you can automate compliance for SOC-2, ISO 27001, HIPPA, and more. Vanta's market leading trust management platform can help you unify security program management with a built-in risk register plus reporting and also
streamline security reviews with AI-powered security questionnaires. Over 7,000 fast-growing companies like Adlasian, Flow Health, and Quora use Vanta to manage risk and prove security and real time. You can watch Vanta's on-demandemmo-adventure.com-slash-pivot to learn more. That's v-a-n-t-a-dot-com-slash-pivot. Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I wanted to get back to my knitting and make a prediction about business. I think an activist investor is going to pop up at one of the most
storied strongest brands in the world, and that brand is Nike. Essentially, Nike have one of its biggest one-day stock drops. The five-year return for Nike stock is negative 13%. The S&P has doubled. It's lost half its market value in just the past three years. Net profit margins have declined nearly 2% over the past year. Because of how it goes. This company has just been hit incredibly hard. It's down more than 30%
year-to-date. It expects a 10% decline revenue this quarter, single-digit decline. I mean, Nike is down 30%, I think Adidas is up 20%. After reporting earnings last quarter, Nike plummeted nearly 20%. It's worse trading day since going public since 1980. It has now become the worst performer in the Dow Jones index. When you look at the power of this brand, I mean, it's lost share a little bit of growth. The new brands, upstart brands like on.
Did you see the Zendaya ad with the player? What's the name? My favorite is Roger Federer. Maybe we're on the same page. Yeah, it's her and Federer. That's who it is. In the on ad, it's fantastic. Federer has made more money through on than he's made in his entire career as a tennis player. But anyways, if you look at it, on running enterprise value to EBITDA, on trades at 48 times, Decker's, the owners of Hoka is at 22. Adidas is at 29. Nike is at 17. And Nike's
average of it the last five years is 27. So in addition to the underperformance, the stock has been beaten up enough that I think it's now a very juicy target for an activist. So interesting. So my prediction isn't that Nike will continue to underperform or overperform. My prediction is that one of the greatest global brands of the last 30 years, it's EBITDA or it's valuation is now at a point where it's becoming a dinner bell for an activist. So my prediction is in the next 90 days.
Somebody is going to file a 13D and say, hi, we're here and we're concerned at Nike. Yeah, that's, you know, the CEO is John Donahoe, who is a tech CEO. He was at a bunch of different tech companies. I know him pretty well. I do have to say I know some Nike people and they have been complaining about him for a while that he doesn't, he's not. He's got the support of Phil Knight and that's who's the founder and that's what he's got. But I've heard a lot of disgruntledment
within Nike about him. I just literally recently heard from like six or seven people there. And I like John, but he's definitely having a troubling time. It's a really interesting problem. It'd be unprecedented. Something like that lost market share. Correct. They're facing some of the same problems like an Estee Lauder, right? China's 10 or 15% of the business. China's down. But Nike, which is an incredible brand, the space is actually
done pretty well as a whole. So investors, I would bet that John, he has 12 months to figure this out. Otherwise, he will be, he will be removed from his position. But this is a classic, classic activist. One, some of the biggest players in the world like an, you know, an Elliott or or Nelson Peltz. The thing they're going to love about this is because it has 111 billion dollar market cap, they can put a billion dollars to work here and no one even notices.
And what they'll do is they'll come in and they'll say, hi, we're here. We love the brand. There's tremendous value to be unlocked here. And we're quote unquote concerned. And they'll basically meet with John and say, what are your plans, John? And based on that meeting, they'll either go, okay, he's hit a rough patch, but he's the right guy. And they'll say, okay, we're giving you 12 months to figure it out. Where they're going to go are worse fears have been realized
here. I mean, they can go, they meet with Salesforce and they meet Mark Vanneoff and they go, okay, this guy's smart. He just got, he shoved too many calories down the sofas of this company. They need to trim some fat. We'll give them some cloud cover to make some hard decisions. And boom, I think the stock's up 50 or 80 percent since whatever since Elliott went in there. They leave. Thanks very much. Or they're going to go in and say, this is the wrong guy and go
hostile right away. But this brand, there are so few iconic brands of this stature, this heritage, this legacy that have seen their value cut in half. It's just too tempting for an activist not to come in here. Great predictions. Really interesting. I have a little prediction. You and I are going to be in the theater on November 22nd when glad eight or two comes out. Have you seen the trailer? I was not expecting you to say that. I understand that. It's paramount pictures. Yay paramount.
It's going to be a big. It looks so good. It's Pedro Pascal. This guy Paul Miscal, who's playing is in it and Denzel Washington. It looks so fucking good. It's like I'm so excited. I'm going to take you to the opening if I get invited. I will get invited to the opening because I happen in a day for Allison. So I'm going to demand it. Even after all the ship hosting, we've done a paramount. Do you know the Allison? They're going to invite. I'm going to be talking to David
Allison. I suspect hopefully. Great. We're going to David Allison. We would like to get to the opening. We want to go to the the big premiere. We'll dress up in glad eight or outfit. We will go. We'll bring sage with us. I've been calling everybody. I know trying to get finals. So the championship in Berlin, the other movie I'm excited about is Beetlejuice. Oh, yeah. Yeah. That's coming out. Justin Theros in it. Yeah. I love Justin Theros and I think he's super talented. Yeah.
The sequel. Yeah. So I'm excited about the anyways. It looks fantastic. Yeah. Anyway, we I know sequels are kind of tired, but I don't care. Gladiators. My favorite movie of all time. And that I had two looks fanfuckin tacit Pedro Pascal. That's all you got to tell me in like sword and sandals. He's great. Anyway, I love a sword and I let I watch the robe. I watch all the sword and sandals. I watch Van her. I love them all. I love them every single one of them.
Anyway, I am spotter. Okay, Scott. That's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more pivot. Would you please read us out today's show is produced by Larry name and Zoe Marcus Taylor Griffin and Travis Larkshark. Our new Dirtad engine. This episode thanks also to Drew Burrows and Missiveario. Nishak Kura is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe. It's your every listen podcast. Thanks for listening to pivot from New York magazine and Vox Media. You can
subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. If you're a senior in high school, your time with your parents is not coming to an end, but it's can substantially decrease. Leave on a high note. Be nice, be calm. Hey, mom. Hey, dad. Let's grab dinner. If you've been enjoying this podcast, here's a look into what else is happening at New York
magazine. I'm Cory Seeker and I'm here with Reeves Wideman who has written about the American obsession with NDAs. Where did they come from? Why are they everywhere? Are they good for anything besides covering up for abusers? After you've poked around NDAs for a while, do you see NDAs used mostly as tools of abuse and coercion? You see positive results like where did you land on NDAs? I think in most situations, it is used as a way to sort of claim power, but not even
necessarily to like to do a bad thing. It's just kind of it is this now this sort of boring standard tool in the toolbox of corporations or powerful people. But now it's being used on the people at the bottom. It's the warehouse workers at Amazon being made to sign them or like I was just trawling job listings while doing this story and there were NDAs for forklift drivers and like people working in butcher shops. And I think on the one hand, it's just kind of like,
well, I might as well. There's no downside for me to do this, but it is also just another way that you sort of keep your employees or people you get into a relationship with that you sort of keep your thumb on them. So I do think it is at the end of the day that people who are giving them out by and large are trying to control someone. Do you think that they're going to become standard for like literally every interaction and job interview and possibly relationship as well or do you
think they're just finally going to die or become outlawed? Like where do we go from here? You know, it was corporations first, then it was celebrities, then it was just rich people who aren't famous, but they also want to protect their privacy. The next frontier is people like you and me and and are we going to start giving them to their partners? You know, I think some people are going to start start experimenting with it. It doesn't take much to go online, download a free
NDA and without even consulting a lawyer and hand it over to someone. I did as a joke, send one to my girlfriend. She hasn't signed it yet, but I yeah, I at least sent it. So that's Reeves Widermint, who may or may not be single soon. You can read his work on NDAs in our beautiful print magazine in your own home or on nymag.com slash lineup.