Bezos's AI Start-up, Thiel's Nvidia Sell-off, and Trump-MTG Breakup

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Cheap-ass discount, Scott Galloway. I don't want cheap-ass. I want the real fucking deal. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And it is. 5, 14 a.m. here at the Beverly Hills Hotel in Los Angeles. And I had on my calendar that it was supposed to be, we were supposed to be doing this at 7 a.m. So if I'm even a little slower than usual, you'll have to forgive me.

No, I think you had a nice relaxing weekend. Do you miss me? First of all, that's the key question. I don't miss you, but I'm not sick of you. After being together for seven nights in seven cities, I thought it was pretty... Pretty seamless. Pretty good. I know, wasn't it? We had a good time. I had a good time. What were your favorite parts? Oh, wow. All of it. I have to say, everyone's like, what's your favorite city? I'm like, I kind of liked all of them.

I thought everyone was interesting that we had on stage. I don't think there was a dud amongst. I thought they were the crowds. You know what my favorite part? The audiences. I gotta say, they were so enthusiastic. I don't know, what was your favorite part? The backstage whiskey? I don't know. No, it was nice. LA was nice for me because as people listen, I had a couple of my mentors show up from when I was a kid. Cy and Paul, right?

yes i am paul my stockbroker when i was 13 and my friend stepfather um when we had your fourth grade uh girlfriend yeah that was a trip that was uh our producer figured out a way to track down i've mentioned my girlfriend in fourth grade, Debbie Brubaker, and they tracked her down and she showed up. Her sister's a fan. That was wild.

Let me think. Several weeping. You cried a few times. Yeah, but that's just me. That's just a weekday. People love that. And then I'm trying to think who was really good. I thought, you know what? I thought Chelsea Handler was really good. I think she's the female version of you. She's so talented. No, she's way more talented than me. She's super talented on light on her feet and funny. Both governors were great. We had bands and cheerleaders and everything else.

our staff was astonishing i have to say it was scott turned to me at one point and said this is completely seamless this is just really in a good way yeah super easy anyways you're back in dc Yes, you had a relaxing weekend in Los Angeles. I assume I had a birthday party. I took my mother out to dinner and Louis was here. It was a lot of stuff, but I feel great. We had a great weekend.

I went to a bunch of private clubs in LA. I think I win. I think you do. I went to the living room in this place called the Bird something or Bird Street. LA definitely has a unique vibe. How do you find out about these clubs? I never hear about these things.

my friend um michael baruch is i showed up to you so i was 17 he was 16. and michael is sort of like a mini celebrity and he's totally dialed in so i get i mean it's just such a think about it you drop into la and you're immediately like dialed into whatever's happening that night

Yeah, so he shepherds me around. Yeah, so anyway, the whole tour was really wonderful. And we were thinking of cities on the plane, where we should go next. Lots of them, lots of people have written in. I said, where should we go next? and all kinds of cities, Atlanta, Seattle, Miami, Nashville. so we will we will try to do different cities um and maybe one or two of the same because la is scott's home it's a scott's home and san francisco is mine i consider it mine yeah so

It was great. So anyway, we had a wonderful time and we thank everybody and everyone was extraordinarily generous to us and made it seem, again, easy, not seamless, but easy. Oh, you didn't, I'm sorry, you didn't talk about my Bill Maher.

appearance oh oh my god oh okay cara came and immediately just like took over my dressing room and started like like drinking my drinks and like threw her took her shoes off and I did not take my shoes off. You don't go to the audience. You not only go backstage. You merely go into my room. Of course. They told me. They said go into Scott's room. You want me to go to Fareed Zakaria's room? Was that offensive to you? I don't think it was.

no but you're like i don't know you're like a girlfriend staking out your territory or like or like my mom that i bring on set i'm like matthew mcconaughey with my mom or something you liked it come on it was fun we had a good time you were by the way

spectacular on that show. We were all sitting backstage. I was sitting backstage with the producers and we were watching you and we thought, whoa, what got in Scott's Wheaties? Because you were very subdued in the room because you were nervous. I was nervous. I got very nervous on that show. My dad.

only watched two things when he was alive. He watched Toronto Maple Leafs hockey and Bill Maher. I feel like he's watching. I get very nervous. You told Bill that. He was surprised too, I think. But it was really good. It's a very good show. I would check it out. Scott said a number of friends.

and exciting things. And I think everyone was super impressed. And they also had Fareed Zakaria and Josh Barrow. I love both those guys. I know. That was a good show. It's finally time for four men to dominate a media show. It's time, Kara. It's time. I didn't say a word. I thought it. Oh, I knew you were thinking it. I thought I was waiting for it. I'm like, oh, here it comes.

Here it comes. That's how good I've gotten. I was like, oh, for fuck's sake. He does. To be fair, he has a lot of women on that show. From what I understand, they try to get a lot of women. A lot of women are like, no, which is interesting. And Susan Bennett, the producer who found me and advocated for me to get on the show. Susan is amazing. Let me say, I know people like or don't like Bill Maher, but his staff has been there 20 years.

Every person is over the makeup person 20 years. And there is, and Scott made a very salient point, but I think caught Bill off guard where he was talking about. scott's book is about to do about procreating and things like that and he's like you don't have to have kids or whatever and you said you have kids or you have family which i thought

It knocked him off a little bit there. Well, I said, I said, I think you're full of shit. And I could see you kind of reared up, waiting to get back on my face. And I said, look, everyone here from the makeup artists, the producers, has been here 25 or 30 years. You have kids. They're just wearing...

time warner badges and there's a lot of research that on happiness the kind of the twist on happiness is most people you know it's not surprising that relationships are the key but what's sort of surprising is that people are the happiest

are not necessarily the ones that receive the most love, but the ones that have opportunities to give the most love. Yeah, that's interesting. And it's weird to describe Bill Maher in those terms, but he's clearly got very paternal and fraternal feelings or emotions. Everyone around him has been with him forever.

I know, it's really interesting because, you know, he tried to do, oh, I pay them kind of thing. He started to move to that. And I was like, you don't stay at a job you don't like. You just don't, unless you're like a masochist. But none of them seem like masochists. If someone works with you for 25 years, it means that some... point they screwed up and you forgave them and at some point you screwed up and they stayed with you it's there's

It goes beyond just kind of a professional relationship. It means that they feel comfortable with you, you feel comfortable with them, and you're loyal to each other. It's like family, and that's what it is. Sorry, Bill, you have kids. That's the way it goes. Yeah. Even though you decry it. There you go. I'm going to drop my kids off at his house. kill them anyway anyway um by the way sol sol uh swisher cats happy birthday um

We've got a lot to get to today, including Jeff Bezos' new AI startup and Peter Thiel's NVIDIA sell-off. But first, President Trump is urging House Republicans to back the measure to release the Epstein files because, quote, we have nothing to hide.

The House is set to vote on it today. Trump also continues to call Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene a traitor. He announced late last week he was cutting ties with Greene's referring to her as a ranting lunatic. Greene says she's been contacted by multiple. private security firms after receiving a hotbed of threats. She told CNN that she supports Trump and his administration, but is not backing away from the Epstein files. Let's listen.

I believe the country deserves transparency in these files. And I don't believe that rich, powerful people should be protected. if they have if they have done anything wrong and and so i'm standing with the women and i will continue to do my small part to get the files released she also noted that she was sorry uh and it was

seemed sincere for being such a toxic force in political discourse, which was, it was a flat-out apology and well done. And I know a lot of people are like, let's not forgive her, but I feel like you can't forgive the people who...

Or saying, we're sorry, I don't know what you do. Epstein's survivors released a powerful PSA on Sunday holding up a picture of their younger self from when they met Epstein. Very upsetting. They're encouraging House Republicans to vote to release the files, which it looks like it was going to do. I think Trump did that because he knew he wasn't going to win.

And then he can make an excuse. Either two things are going online, which is that he's scrubbed the files, or two, that he's going to say there's an investigation of Democrats going on in the files. so that they can't release them. In any case, he didn't want to lose so explicitly. Also, the latest Epstein distraction, the Amelia Earhart records were just released as actor.

Christopher Maloney put it, unless she went missing while on a flight to Epstein's Island, no one gives a shit. I love that guy. I love that guy. So any thoughts on this? This is a really interesting... and continually developing story i just don't have a feel i just don't what i've never understood is why we think unless the files are part of some process where Trump appointees don't have access to them. I've always thought these things are going to be altered. This is a corrupt organization.

his personal lawyers out of the doj and an individual who's a sycophant and a total incompetent and just an acolyte is the head of the fbi these people at the end of the day have ownership, I guess it's, is it because why would we believe that these things won't be altered when they? Well, because that's a real, I mean, they have to at some point.

I think they have to be thinking their own skins in the very end. They're not going to do anything for this guy. And it's sort of like the mobsters that turn on the top mobster at some point. You know, they always end up turning. All those people, if you've ever noticed. Yeah, I just wouldn't put it past him. I think the crime here has been so brazen. You know what?

There was a couple times on Bill Morrow where I thought, for the first time in my life on this show, you know, everything does not demand my judgment. And I had a couple topics like on the penny and daylight savings time. Yeah, you didn't. I have no few and no reason to speak now. I feel like I'm watching this, but I don't have a view on it. The only thing I'll say is that, you know.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is sort of what happens when CrossFit and a Facebook comment section have a baby and then raise it on Monster Energy Drink. Which she has said. And resentment. I don't know how to feel about her. It's weird. You've always said, and I absolutely believe this, we have to embrace imperfect allies, and MTG is acting. Someone asked us, the joke is, and you said this, who's the leader of the Democratic Party? And it's Marjorie Taylor Greene right now.

And everybody loves the turncoat because it's good for your own advantage. But something has happened where she has seen polling data and someone in her campaign has said, We are going to do the mother of all pivots here because there's a huge opportunity. And I feel like she's a real canary in the coal mine for or hunted for the Trump campaign because.

She strikes me as being politically pretty savvy. Very much so. And she's done some polling in her own district and found out that this positioning of turning on Trump. for the first time makes sense politically can i ask you from a branding perspective because again a lot of people are like i don't believe her and my joke i was doing on the tour was she's been visited by three ghosts recently like the whole scrooge pivot essentially

in this overnight conversion um i don't know how long it's been going on and i would love some reporting from people actually close to her um if they could if reporters could get to those people of what happened here um because she is It's unbelievable, actually, even though I have to tell you, she's incredibly persuasive in her. I was I was a you know, she's she makes a very I was a QAnon conspiracy.

victim, essentially, which I have seen it from, you know, I've seen it with my mom, I've seen it with lots of people, friends of mine who have suddenly gone crazy, essentially. and nobody's come back that's the thing but you think about those people who were KKK, and then they teach people not to do violence, or you remember the IRA people, they were having all these nonviolence. And at some point, you've got to go, and they were extraordinarily violent people, these skinheads that then teach.

Kids did not do that. At some point, you have to believe, I guess. But talk about the brand thing, because you do have a sneaking suspicion. It's a trick. And of course, AOC said it was because of the Senate race, which I'm like, okay.

That might, okay. Like, I'm not offended by that necessarily. They treated her like shit because she's a woman, right? Because they were like, we're not letting you in and she had to change her brand because it wasn't working for her. But people do that every day, you know, whether they're in marriages or... Or, you know, you got to change or you lose or you don't lose. I don't know because she's...

People are very mean about her turnabout. They did that same thing with George Conway or Liz Cheney or anyone else on the right. But George and Liz. It really wasn't a brand, quite frankly. Well, Liz it was. So let me back up. The quote-unquote brand positioning, I would argue Marjorie Taylor Greene has gone for, is I'm going to come across like one of those women, or the type of woman who will return a rotisserie chicken to Costco after I've eaten half of it.

She just has fucking crazy weird energy. And it's like 5.30 here. Did you do that? Did you do that once? Yeah. Well, I've heard that before. Yeah, I've never heard of that, but I like it. But where she's just so fucking crazy, like, yeah, take it back, just give her her money back. Yeah, right, exactly. But I would argue, okay, so first off, from a branding standpoint.

people appreciate what she's doing is actually poor branding because and i'm not saying it's not good for the country i'm not saying it's not the right thing to do it might end up being very strategic But the reality is people appreciate someone who is consistent, even if they don't agree with the values they're showing consistency on. So quite frankly, John Kerry ran, everyone gives Vice President Harris a ton of shit.

Senator Kerry or Secretary Kerry ran a pretty poor campaign. And that is he came across as just the ad that just absolutely devastated him was a video footage of him windsurfing in... Nantucket Harbor and it just said he was against the Iraq war before he was for it before he was against it and it ended with this devastating line in a picture of him on his

His kiteboard saying, you know, John Kerry, whichever way the wind blows. Yeah. Oh, yeah. And so people like, for example, George W. Bush, incredibly unpopular war in Iraq, probably first ballot Hall of Fame geopolitical. catastrophic mistake but because he never wavered people respect that and so from a brand standpoint people would rather you be just fucking crazy and stay that way or crazy

crazy liberal because those are the people who've been drawn to you. But whereas I think Liz Cheney and George Conway stayed true to, quite frankly, GOP traditional principles. I don't think they really flip-flopped. I think they're very— They did unnatural things for Trump and then stopped, right? And went back to their normal shape, essentially.

Yeah, but they did kind of, my opinion on Cheney and Conway is that they're the old GOPers that basically MAGA has cast out for the party. Right, absolutely, yeah. But she was at the heart of it.

she was at the heart of it but her brand it'll be very interesting to see what happens and what what'll be super interesting is if If she's reelected, he's basically aimed her guns at her. Whenever he's aimed his guns at anyone, it has been a direct hit. It has been shocking. Well, no, Thomas Massey won despite a direct, he had tried to get Thomas Massey out the last time.

Yeah, but my sense is, I think MTG would be an entirely different ballgame. Do you know how much her district went for Trump? A lot, except that the head of the Republican Party in the district is backing her, not Trump. Yeah, that will be, I feel like she's your finger being pulled out of a dyke, so to speak. She's going to become a lesbian in San Francisco soon, but go ahead, she could fit.

Yeah, yeah, I'm not going to comment on that. So, but she, by the way, Debbie Brubaker, my girlfriend. Lesby. As you said, or as she said, first thing she said was bats for the other team, so to speak. That's happening a lot to me, Kara. I know that. You know what I'm going to do for you? I'm going to go straight. At this point, I think that ship has sailed, Kara.

i think that ship has sailed no but mtg i think she's actually a seminal figure in the political landscape because if she gets re-elected and shows that she can basically stick up the middle finger to President Trump and he's now two years into his lame duck presidency. And you said something on the tour that really sort of struck me was that you don't think he's going to finish out his presidency. I don't. I really don't now, actually.

I really don't have this past week. This shift on the Epstein files, whether they scrub them or not, he's in a weak position. And I think they sense it. And by the way, I think there are videos. I think there are photos. And I think they're not good. And that's what's missing here. He's scared of something. They made fun of it, actually. They were repeating a lot of stuff you said. If I was innocent, wouldn't I release things? And it was the opener for SNL.

And it was really quite like saying what you were saying is he looks so guilty the way he's behaving. And Amelia Earhart, I'm like, I'm happy she released that, although we still don't know where she went. But, you know, we're going to have to live with that. unfortunate accident.

But he's going to try to do distraction after distraction. But at some point, you do run out of steam of these distractions. I feel like you can't, unless he attacks a country, that's another Venezuela. But I think he's in a deeply weak position. I think Green is just an example of that. It'll be interesting if she keeps this up because she can't quite let go of him because that's a bridge too far. But she's like...

Him of another time, not this one, not this Trump. And I think that's what's powerful because everyone I talk to in the Trump universe who's supportive of him that is shifting is like, I liked him, but not this stuff, not the white, not the. East Wing, not the way they're doing ICE, not all these kind of ridiculous, but not this, the guy, essentially. So they like the idea of Trump, not what's happened to him, which is clearly a decline in cognitive and...

and corruption. I don't see the cognitive decline. Occasionally, he does look like an old man falling asleep, but I don't see the quote-unquote cognitive decline. I think he actually presents as still remarkably robust. I was in my mom's, my mom's in a senior facility, and there's a guy there, there's always a guy there that's really robust and really losing it, but also very energetically loud.

But it has dementia. Like, I'm just telling you, you can be very, I had a friend whose mother had dementia and her grandmother, grandmother had dementia. And she used to get up from the beach and start swimming and kept going. She was in great shape. She was very lively and they had to go get her because she was so fit and so like full of beans, but had dementia. So we'll see. I don't know. I'm going to...

I'm going to impersonate Marjorie Taylor Greene, and if my room service is late, I'm going to blame the deep state. Okay, good. Okay. All right. Speaking of what Congress is up to, House Republicans are reportedly circulating a bill model on Trump's idea to lower health care costs, redirecting insurance subsidies directly to people.

HSA accounts, they would be for Obamacare enrollees. Mark Cuban called this really dumb, noting that when you send money to people's HSAs, there's no guarantee the money will be spent on health care costs. When they're used by insurance companies, they have to spend 85%. on those costs. Everyone thinks this is ridiculous. And again, another bad move by...

Trump, I think. And he seems to be missing. He's usually politically so savvy, and this is just a dumb idea. Yeah, look, I think it's time. If you were just to look at our deficit, it's $2 trillion a year. If you look at what we spent on health care, $13,000 per capita per year versus $6,500 for the other six members of the G7. Striking stat you used.

If we were able to actually leverage our scale and our innovation to provide health care at the same price as every other nation, that's literally the... the annual deficit that would be a two trillion dollar savings you can't golden ticket we're gonna have a very difficult time ever getting serious about a deficit as long as we continue the regulatory capture and i don't think there's of health care i don't think there's a i literally don't think there's a way to

fix or enhance or your idea repeat your idea you repeated on stage several times would Explain your Medicare. Well, if you look at health care in the United States, four out of five people are dissatisfied with it, and they spend $13,000 a year on it. And that's just, there's no product in the world that is this expensive that has an 80% disapproval rate.

And then you combine that with regulatory capture where we've monetized health. Healthcare isn't about health. It's about shareholder value, unfortunately. And we've ended up in the most capitalist healthcare system in the sense that if you're in the top 10% of the United States, it's the best healthcare in the world. The person who...

That person in the top 1% lives 12 years longer than the person in the bottom 1%. We've monetized it. It's actually, for you and me, it's the best healthcare system in the world. For everyone else, not so much. It's still frustrating.

so i think this has to be like really ripped a band-aid off and uh what i think at the same time medicare which is what seniors are eligible for actually delivers pretty efficiently and people are generally pretty happy with it So my idea is to lower health Medicare eligibility by two years a year. And then in 10 years, where are you? You're at 45 on up is eligible for Medicare. And that's 70 plus percent of health care costs because they happen later in your life.

And I think you just keep going until effectively you have socialized or nationalized.

medical coverage. It's time. It's just not working for us. And everyone under could have a very inexpensive under four shots. They don't even need health insurance. I know they don't, but just to, you know, if something happens, right, they need, there's always, I'm trying to figure out, I'm trying to figure out an elegant way that gives the private sector time to respond because there are millions of jobs that are dependent upon this regulatory capture.

And you want to give them time to adjust. But quite frankly, we have to move to an entirely different system. We have to move. Absolutely. In the UK, you know, the NHS, granted, people have their issues with it. But generally, you get good health care for free. And it's the responsibility of the entire nation. It's just in Korea.

They're perplexed by our health. They're like, why are you? They can't. Absolutely can't. They can't get over a nation that's the most prosperous nation in the world where when your wife is diagnosed with lung cancer, it also means you're going bankrupt. Forty percent of American households have medical or dental debt. This is, it's a huge, you know, happiness. We're talking a lot about it. The six of the 10 happiest nations in the world are in Northern Europe.

and i think a big component of that healthcare is people think of happiness is is having stuff or the ability to have stuff which america defines but actually a bigger component of happiness is absence from fear that things are going to be taken from you And in the U.S., there's a real fear that your dignity will be taken from you and the health of your loved ones because it's so fucking expensive and people can't afford it. Healthcare and homes.

that's 100 and i h and h i don't i think crime i think crime and immigration are big in terms of perception but in terms of the actual quality Mental illness, cortisol, stress. Well, I'm shocked that some of our friends on the left aren't more aggressive about this. You know, Hillary, Secretary Clinton was right. It's just the world wasn't ready for it in 92 or whenever it was.

The nation is ready for it. The nation has had it. And then the system in the UK, the top, I forget if it's 5% or 10%, go private. Yeah, the effects. And people say, well, that's...

That's the aristocracy. I'm like, no, it's not. Rich people are always going to have better service and better access. Get used to it, folks. Their kids are going to have an easier time getting into college. They're going to have better doctors. Did you see that journal story? There was a journal story about rich, really the ultra rich.

never see people like they go from one it's i'll send it to you well that's part of the problem and that is the top the most powerful people by far in the top one percent and they're no longer invested in the basics of american life they have their own schools they have their own police force and security now they have their own health care they have their own transportation they have their own planes so when america

structure is crumbling and when the average american has a difficult time getting good education or feels unsafe these people don't feel don't don't have no empathy because they're they've totally extricated themselves from the American experience. Yeah, this story, I'd recommend it in the Wall Street Journal. We have to move on, but one of the things, that when Luigi Mangione happened, I was like, okay, here we are. This is more and...

this is going to happen over time. People are furious about this thing and they don't need to be, right? It's so fixable for our country and it saves money. Just before we move on, two things. I actually believe if people had any idea...

how the 1% really live in terms of access, I think there'd be a revolution right now. I think the difference between... Well, it was described rather detailed in the Wall Street Journal. The difference between a middle-class person and an upper-income person when I was growing up was they got to fly business class and they had...

They had a Cadillac, not a Gran Torino, but you've lived largely the same life. Now it's a different fucking universe. It is just a different universe. And also just going back to the UK healthcare system, the people who go private because they have the money for it.

It actually kind of works because they basically take pressure off the system because they're not in the system. So I think it's time for nationalized health care. It's time for socialized health care in the United States. It's just not working for us. Oh, you socialist. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Peter Thiel dumps his stake in NVIDIA. I'm very eager to hear what you say about this.

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Scott, we're back. Peter Thiel's fund has sold off its entire stake in NVIDIA, elevating AI bubble fears. At the time of this taping early Monday morning, it looks like the markets are in for a muted open after a rocky week of tech stock sell-offs quite a lot while we were away. The NASDAQ composite ended last week down a half a percentage point, led by dips in Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, even though Warren Buffett bought into Alphabet.

which he never buys and detects. And talk about this, this move. And let me just add this. Speaking of AI bubble fears, some recent reports are shedding more light on OpenAI's finances. This was jaw-dropping, I thought. Documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal show

the company is burning through cash. I mean, it is a forest fire. Operating losses are projected to reach about three quarters of annual revenues by 2028, mostly due to computing costs, of course, though the company expects to turn a profit by 2030. They say they are. This happened with other internet companies. OpenAI spent about $12 billion on inference, essentially computing costs, between 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, according to documents reviewed by tech blogger Ed Zitron.

So Microsoft's revenue share payments from OpenAI roughly doubling since last year. OpenAI has said these aren't. Accurate, I guess. But they are having this. We'll see when they have their IPO. Sam Altman recently said OpenAI's revenue is more than $13 billion a year. But these latest numbers don't seem to support that. Any thoughts on this stuff? I'm really interested in your take on the teal stuff combined with, and of course, what's his name, from Massasan Soldoff.

one nvidia in order to get into open ai but go ahead well i think you'd i think most people most market analysts would go listen this is just from some profit taking nvidia is up 38 even nvidia was down eight percent last week but it's up 38 for the year microsoft down 1.3 up 22 metis flat was down 4.5%. It's only up 2% for the year. Amazon is up 7%, but it gave back 8% last week. Alphabet was down 3%, but it's up 45%. And Apple. Nice call. Apple's up.

apple's one point up 1.2 last week and up 12 for the year and the companies that So Apple and Amazon are supposed to be most immune from the AI trade. They haven't gone all in. I personally, and again, this isn't financial advice, but I'm increasingly convinced that the string that gets pulled on, that takes down.

global economy to recession levels and it'll be no there'll be nowhere to hide is the following i think the quote unquote trillion dollar plus commitments or framework that uh sam altman has made to try and convince everybody i know more than you and this is so huge i need 60 nuclear power plants and 300 billion and compete from oracle i think a lot of that is marketing and great if the revenue is doubled at open ai

it means its stock is 80 over value because built into that evaluation of 40 times revenue is that this thing is quadrupling every 12 months and will quadruple every 12 months for four years and it's not And the moment they announce... Again, I think this trade unwinds the following way. I think a traditional company, a PepsiCo, a Caterpillar, on an earnings call says, look, we are excited about AI. We do think it's going to be a breakthrough, but we are scaling back our investment.

And then a bunch of other traditional S&P 500 companies look at each other and make the same announcement. OpenAI has to, you know, it becomes clear there's no fucking way OpenAI is going to continue to.

be able to buy 300 billion or 100 billion in nvidia chips and the thing that takes the market down quite frankly is nvidia because with a five trillion dollar market cap If this thing gets cut in half and there's a $2.5 trillion destruction in the market, which will impact the top 10% of households who are now responsible for 50% of consumer spending, that's how the economy literally starts to throw up and convulse.

and i think we're getting there the narrative has gone from ai boom to ai bubble now everyone have you people don't realize because it happens incremental and you said something that always struck me that humans adapt people don't realize how much the narrative has changed around ai

in the financial press just in the last 15 days. Everyone's talking about a bubble now. I've read so many bubble stories. It's crazy. And of course, as you say, sometimes when that's the case, it doesn't happen, right? It over-indexes on that. I would say the Teal thing, I don't think it's just profit-taking, although he's...

This guy has like a tuning fork for money, right? Whether he figures out some weird tax plan that he never pays taxes again or some weird gap gains thing that he does. He's always up to some... like, amazingly ridiculous and greedy thing to do. But, you know, that's him. He's a capitalist. He's going to take advantage of every, you know, nook and cranny of problems. But it was interesting that it just...

They see things before people because they're in the middle of it and they can actually see the numbers. And anyone that can see the numbers, you have to pay attention to their moves. And it's not just a profit taking, right? It's not just that. probably it's not like you sort of feel like remember amazon was all like

going to be on Amazon.bomb, that kind of stuff. There was that narrative that went on, and then it wasn't. But this is so much bigger. It's so big, and it affects everything. And there are already established industries and already established companies. these other companies, when they coughed, nobody cared. In this case, when they cough, everyone dies, essentially. Here's an interesting thing. Jeff Bezos is taking a larger role in the AI game. He's created a startup called Project Prometheus.

Oh, it's such a macho, isn't it? I know, right? By the way, Prometheus did not have the greatest tale, Jeff, just so you know. No, Prometheus gave humans fire, and he defied the gods for doing this. punishment for his actions, Zeus condemned Prometheus to internal torment, including an eagle ate his liver daily.

So good luck, Jeff. And he'll be the co-CEO. The company is focusing on AI with real-world applications in aerospace cars and other fields. It makes sense. Project Prometheus has already raised $6.2 billion in funding. I'm not sure what, it's probably making apps, right? I would assume, like, how you would deploy it anywhere. Like, what's the use of AI? And I think...

People right now are mostly using it for search, you know, sort of a more robust search or a more robust analytical thing. And so the question is, how do you make it really seamlessly useful?

throughout which is what you're talking about what's the actual roi on these things so i don't know i don't know if you think of anything yeah the new the thing that kind of identity or marks the age a little bit is weapons of mass distraction and that is i think the country is being run by i think we're bombing fishing boats

which, A, no fentanyl comes out of Venezuela. They don't have any fentanyl production. Yeah, not in fishing boats, that's for sure. And then if these fishing boats were the distribution system or the transportation system for the drug trade, which, by the way, is not the way you go after the drug trade, the transportation system.

they would have if they were in fact fairing drugs or fentanyl of which there's none in venezuela it's in miami these boats would need to make 20 stops to refuel which is sort of logistically improbable if not impossible I believe we're bombing fishing boats because of a dead pedophile. I think they, every day, as soon as Epstein creeps back into the news, they try and come up with something.

Whether it's this health account nonsense or an additional 100% tariff on Lithuania to try and distract them. And then the other person that does this... I mean, the most powerful person in the world, the wealthiest man in the world, are literally deploying all of their energy and firepower on distraction right now. And Musk is like, look at anything but the fact. I have a car company trading.

uh you know a revenue multiple that's never made sense for a car come oh look over here it's robots look over here it's autonomous look over here i would agree it's ai like jazz hands on meth because it's not if he just starts talking about tesla as a car company in the metrics and what the plan is for this company that wraps steel around a motor people are going to wake up and go oh

it's a car company, and take the stock down 80%. It's also, can I add something? It's more than that. It's also the idea that they can't shut up. I was just thinking this last night. I'm going on the show, Jennifer, you know, those two ladies. I've had ladies. And I had to think of I've had it.

I have had it with them talking. When Bill Ackman was giving dating advice, I was thinking I would call him a cheap-ass discount version of Scott Galloway. It was, first of all, stupid advice for young men. He's sort of moving into it. space i'd give him a smackaroo scott but he's sort of copying yes he put out this whole thing about can i meet you you go up to a girl at a bar and you say can i meet you

Can I? You just did you. Can I meet you? Can I meet you? That's his piece of advice. He like started giving. dating advice i'm like can you just go back to hedge funds and stop commenting on everything i bet he saw like the galloways number one i need to get in on this thing and it gives me a softer side of sears kind of look but yeah he had and it's completely

So just to be clear, I don't. But that's what I mean. Bezos can't shut up. I know, but I try and base my dating advice on research. So just real briefly, gentlemen. Women are attracted to men sexually for three reasons. The first is signaling resources. So the bad news is, you know, that's a ranger of a family. But you can also signal resources by having a plan and having your act together and demonstrating discipline. It's like signaling.

Not only current, but future resources. Second is intellect. What's the fastest way to communicate intellect, Kara? I don't know. Make a joke. Be funny. That's right. So I've told you my impersonation of a woman. I'm laughing, I'm laughing, I'm naked. And then...

And if you can make a woman laugh. I should not laugh at that, but it was fun. If you can make a woman laugh, she'll have coffee with her. And then the third thing, and this is the most underleveraged weapon in dating and the advice I have for young men, is kindness. And it's true.

Women instinctively believe at some point they'll be vulnerable because of gestation, and they want someone who is a kind man. This all makes sense. Can I meet you does not. Yeah, so I don't give guys opening lines. I would start with, hey, where are you from? And then you read body language or... What's that old line? That's a nice shirt. It'll look great on my floor in the morning. Well, my big line is you give them the phone and ask them to take a picture of you.

Everyone always says yes and no problem, and they're nice. And then you say, now can you turn it around on Periscope mode and take a picture of the two of us? And she'll go. Why? And you say, because I want to show it to our kids. Oh, my God. That's so creepy. That would send me way, way, way. It's 5.56 in the morning. How can I get out of this place with my head intact? No, no one needs to take dating advice. from a guy who lost his virginity at 19.

Yeah. Yeah, that's true. No, but there's, there's basics. I did not know Bill was getting, is Bill getting into the young men game? I'm going to have to call Richard Reeves and Jonathan Hyde and elbow him out. I was like, what are you doing? Get out of scum. I was immediately angry, but it was also stupid. So I thought, okay.

I'm angry, and yet it's stupid. He's like totally getting into the Scott game. He'll probably call you for lunch like they all do. Like, let's have lunch and chat. Let's talk about hedge funds, Bill. You're a hedge fund person. That's the only thing we want to talk to you about. I don't mind Bill that much.

I think he's become a clown. I think he's a very talented investor. He's a very good investor. Very risk-taking. But he needs to stop talking about everything else publicly. He could talk about it privately if he's interested.

Whatever. He reminds me, there's a great show on his Netflix. Only we can talk about things we're not supposed to talk about. Do we have no domain expertise in? No, no, no. We know a lot about it. I do a lot of reporting. No, I don't talk about hedge fund investing. I don't know anything if I ask you. We just talked about the market.

Yes, but you talked about it. I didn't because I don't know anything about it because you know something about it because you've been investing since 13 with Cy, apparently. That's right. But there's a show called The Beast and Me, and then we're going to move on. And it's with... Matthew Rice and Claire Danes, and it's about this billionaire who lives next door to this Pulitzer Prize winning lesbian writer. It's kind of...

Echoes. And he's such an irritating person. And literally, they have a lunch that I have had with a dozen different tech people, rich people. And it was so like, he's so irritating in this show. He also might be a killer. But it's, anyway, he's so irritating. Stop getting into Scott. I was defending you, Scott. I was like, get out of Scott. I love how you're like a dog and you're like protecting my purse. Get away from my purse. Well, it's like cheap-ass discount.

count scott galloway i don't want cheap ass dude i want the real fucking deal the premium You want that new leather smell? You want that new smell of... No, I'd love Bill Ackman to give dating advice. I'd like him to move along. Smell of men and speed save. I'd love hedge fund advice from Bill Ackman. I smell so weird right now. I bought Axe spray in the airport because I didn't have deodorant. I smell like a 19-year-old. That's like a teenage boy.

No, 19. Try 12. My sons were done with it at 13. Anyway. Oh, that's the worst smell. I just have a memory of really bad smelling young men. Oh my God. Just to put a finer point on the actual substance of the conversation. So at the peak of the dot-com bubble. All of big tech accounted for about 34% of the S&P. There's just 10 companies now that account for 40%. And the 10 biggest companies in tech back then were 27%.

These companies are 50% more expensive as a percentage, or they account for 50% more as a percentage of the total S&P. So we are now in... Look out below territory. Well, if you look at what happened to these companies in 2000... And you look at their peak from which they fell. These companies are now 50%, have 50% more market cap as a percentage of the total market. And then the Buffett test, where you take essentially the market cap of the S&P as a percentage. of GDP.

he likes it he i guess normally it trades around 80 or 90 percent it's trading at 220 right now yeah yeah well buffett is mostly in cash except he bought some google shares oh he's just do you know he's assembled a war chest of $310 billion in cash. He did buy Google. Yeah, he bought Alphabet.

That was interesting. And Apple and Amazon are probably the least vulnerable because they have not gone all in on AI like everybody else. But the narrative has changed really dramatically, which isn't to say that The market, my friend Barry Ritholtz reminded me that 97, when everyone said the market was overvalued, the Nasdaq doubled from that point. But this feels really, really wobbly.

Going to go fast. That's my feeling. All right. Let's go on a quick break. And when we come back, bonds are thriving. Support for Pivot comes from LinkedIn Jobs. As a small business owner, your work hours aren't dictated by the hands on a clock. Your business is on your mind 24 hours a day, seven days a week. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn Jobs.

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See, Scott, I'm availing myself to your expertise. We're back with more news. So bonds are having a moment, which is usually seen as a steady, predictable investment, is having its best year since 2020. So far, the Bloomberg U.S. aggregate bond index has returned around 6.7 percent in 2025. And you know whose notice? President Trump.

Trump, he's bought at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds since the end of the summer. According to ethics forms, we're talking about over 175 separate. purchases here. And here's the interesting part. A bunch of these investments are in sectors that so happen to benefit from his own policies. What a surprise. And by the way, I recommend watching Scott Pelley's piece on 60 Minutes about the Binance CEO pardon.

It's not new reporting by any stretch of the imagination, but he brings it together nicely. Anyway, is there a smart move for non-presidents? Explain this for the people. Again, I shall not comment because I don't know. But can I meet you? Go ahead. It's been a bit of a flight to safety. Interest rates, they're historically not that high, but in terms of recent history, they feel fairly rich.

And I think what's going on here is pretty basic, and that is a lot of investors feel the way I do, and that is we have no idea. where to invest or find value. It feels like with gold up 55%, it's like, where do you go? Where all the stocks are overvalued? Even foreign markets are getting, not frothy, but what feels like fully valued.

And also it feels like there's a lot of risk in the system. So if you return on... bonds is fairly decent and bonds are in the top of the cap structure, meaning that as long, Nvidia could get cut by 90%, but it would likely still be able to pay off its debt or its bonds. And so people generally think of bonds as being a safer instrument and they're getting...

They're getting actually paid for the risk, most people would argue right now because of the run up in interest rates and inflation. So kind of a safe haven is like people look at the market and go, I don't know where.

When the Dow was trading at a P of 25 and the Russell 2000 at 34 with the median historical at 19 and 15 respectively, like okay stocks are just too goddamn expensive so there's been a just a bit of a flight into the bond market which has rallied the bond market it's i think it's i don't think it's the bonds are such a great deal i think it's a flight

i think it's a quote-unquote risk-off strategy and there's more more money just float out of stocks into the bond market i think it's a pretty basic kind of fear index like people what do you think about trump moving into them you know corruption I don't know what's going on there. I think what's going to happen, I think the biggest thing that's going to happen in the debt markets is that

Essentially, America is a giant bet on AI in terms of— Right. As you've noted, yeah. Everything is about AI now. If these companies get cut, I don't see any way that the global economy doesn't go into a recession because now— The S&P dominates global market cap, and these 10 companies are 40% of the S&P. So 20% of global market cap is in 10 companies. If you think about, I mean, if this thing comes undone, it's just so, I don't know, I mean, it's just.

Quite frankly, it's just kind of scary. I'm sitting here thinking, wow, how do I get into bonds? What are you going to put your money in? Are you going to put gold up your ass? What are you doing? Gold up your ass. Okay. Where do I put my money? Cash. And then, of course, you don't want to miss it. Yeah. It's a very fraught time, I think. Anyway. Oh, I'm sorry, but you asked about Trump. I'm sorry. I'm all over the place here.

The biggest thing that's going to happen in the bond market, or it's going to be a weird thing, not only is America a giant bet on AI, Trump's presidency is a giant bet on AI. Because I just don't think he would— Very good point. If the market was down 14%, not up 14%, I don't think we'd have National Guard in cities. I just think he'd be so much less.

the s p and the dow continue to be the most damaging metrics ever invested because they give the illusion of prosperity and that everything's all right it is not and they also credit or or blame the president unfairly for the market's machinations

If the AI trade unwinds, it's going to be terrible for Trump. So I think what he's going to do, I think he's going to backstop these enormous purchases. And what I mean by that is if OpenAI says, if we need 500 billion dollars to buy all these or commit to all these chips i think they're going to ask the government to backstop the debt and which is

Which is, by the way, socialism. But I think he's going to do that. But I wonder what's going to happen to the credit markets when all of a sudden— Are you kidding? That's going to drive MAGA crazy. He is going to lose so much election-wise if that happens. Well, the reason why treasury bills pay a lower interest rate than corporate bonds is corporations are supposed to take greater risks.

And also, they're not as creditworthy as the U.S. government. And when you start melding the private bond market and the U.S. Treasury market, you're basically saying, okay, these are no longer, these take on the risk profile of corporate bonds then, which could raise interest costs. Interest costs are already our biggest, have become, I think, our biggest expense behind Social Security. They're a trillion dollars now. And that's even despite the fact that they trade.

You know, most people would argue like a very safe instrument. He would basically raise our, I believe he would raise our interest rate cost by 100 or 200 billion a year. He better not do that. I think that will be, Marjorie will be mad about that one. Oh, you're right. lose their shit over that. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.

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Okay, Scott, let's do wins and fails. I think I will go first. Go ahead. One thing that really irritates me now, I like Seth Meyers. I don't think he's my friend, but I talk to him and he's a really terrific guy. The administration's war on late night continues. President Trump is called on NBC to fire Seth Meyers after the show featured multiple roasts at his expense. Seth is very funny. President said Meyers was suffering from TDS or Trump derangement syndrome and described his...

performance is uncontrollable rate. It's ridiculous. In a normal world, that's fine. He can complain about it. He's obsessed with late night. He's obviously up late or something's happening by himself in his room with his clicker. And what really irritated me, once again, fucking FCC chair. Brendan Carr reshared the post. You suck up toady. Do you understand the jig is frigging up for this guy at some point? And you are going to go down hard. Hard.

Let me just say, he should not be sharing this post about firing people. When he got into trouble before saying, you know, we're coming to get Jimmy Gimmel, remember that? We had to take back. I thought, I just, he is such a... dumb fuck. I don't know what else to say, but Trump can yank, he yammers on about whoever, Marjorie Taylor Greene. I think he is putting her at risk, by the way. And by the way,

Call out to Dana Bash for pointing out, Marjorie, you weren't concerned about this until it was directed at you. And Green said that's a fair criticism, and you're right. But in this case, Brendan Carr is... continues to make the same stupid mistake because he's not very smart. My win, SNL this week, Glenn Powell was so spectacularly good on SNL. He was so good. He really fell into it really beautifully.

He's shockingly, surprisingly funny because he's so handsome and he took off his shirt, of course. But there was an SNL AI photo sketch that... It's not a new idea that AI photos are demented, sometimes can be demented, or videos that you make. That's been a trope for... you know, this AI slop thing and weird photos with six hands. It was so funny. It was about a grandmother and their kids giving them this AI photos that turn old photos into AI photos and they come alive.

It was so funny. I recommend everybody see it. It just really encapsulated how fucking ridiculous these AI photo enhancements are. And I just think Glenn Powell.

kudos okay um so my win is tom cruise received his first oscar i was here in la and i kept saying all i kept saying all these stars at the hotel. And I guess last night was the Governor's Award or something? Governor's Awards, yeah. And Tom Cruise was given an honorary Oscar for his contribution to the medium. But just, I've always thought that Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt

And I think the same is actually true of Channing Tatum. He's in this cool movie called Roof Man. But I think these guys are so good looking that it actually diminishes the perception of just what fantastic actors they are. Is that what happens to you? That does happen to me, me and Bill Ackman. People don't appreciate it. But just some of the movies, his body of work, obviously the Mission Impossible and Top Down franchises.

But people forget he was in Risky Business when he was, I think he was a teenager. Edge of Tomorrow, Minority Report, Rain Man, The Color of Money, where Paul Newman finally got an Oscar, Collateral. A Few Good Men, Jerry Maguire, and my favorite- You can't handle the truth! Sorry. And my favorite film of his, Magnolia. I thought, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, I thought he should have got the award for that.

Tropic Thunder? In the Stiller movie where he plays Harvey Weinstein, where he does his, what is it? Eyes Wide Shut? Tropic Thunder. i mean this guy tropic thunder if you want to laugh your ass off tom cruise is fantastic the last samurai which was actually a pretty good film even his bad films are pretty good all the right moves remember that

I like the Irish one. I hate to say it. I like when he's an Irish. Far and away. I'm a huge Tom Cruise fan. Despite the Scientologist, I think he's a creepy in real life dude. I have to say, I've enjoyed his... He's not creepy. He's a Scientologist, but I've heard he's a really nice man. On sets, he's very generous. He's got that Taylor Swift generousness. He's tough on people in a good way. I would agree. You don't hear...

It's just the Scientology thing. Vanilla Sky with the most beautiful woman in the world, Penelope Cruz.

Anyways, congratulations. I think Tom Cruise is just an incredible talent. Nice. Nice. Okay, I like that. I'm going to agree with you. And anyways, my fail is the boring stuff, and that is I just think we are in a...

crazy fucking overinflated market right now. If you look at even the emerging markets index is up 30%, that's outpaced the S&P. That was the trade I recommended at the end of last year was foreign stocks and now that trade's kind of over bitcoin's at an all-time high 126 000 i mentioned gold is up 55 and now i mean you everything is just so expensive and whenever we get to this level

of froth is sometimes there's not a crash sometimes it just plays out over a decade which is sometimes even worse it just goes there's been entire decades cara where the market just goes flat Like New York real estate typically doesn't go down. It just goes sideways for 10 years. I was looking, I was reviewing all my investments over the last decade and actually my real estate.

the place I own in Manhattan, has performed the least well. And that can happen when a market is frothy. Sometimes it's not a big dramatic media event. It just goes flat for 10 years. And the S&P Forward PE. typically averages 17. It's now at 22. It's only traded above 22 times twice since 1985 during the... wait for it, dot-com bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic. And after that, the market fell off sharply each time. Anyways, I'm usually, I mean, granted,

You know, Andrew Ostorkin and Josh Brown from Midholz Management have always reminded me, and I need to do this, and it's one of my many flaws as an investor. You have to constantly ask yourself, what could go right? And Andrew says that it's the optimists who have... vastly beating the pessimists in the market over the medium and the long term because of demographics and innovation the market continues to kind of churn up but this feels

The argument or the loss is I think it's unhealthy for an economy to have this kind of concentration of power and value. It creates fragility. And the corruption layered on top of it. Well, that doesn't help. No, bad decisions.

Backstopping open AI? What a terrible decision. Oh, that would be terrible. But Nassim Taleb says, he talks about fragility and anti-fragility and what the definition of robust is. And a robust industry is one where any one or number of companies go out of business and it wouldn't threaten the entire sector. If McDonald's goes out of business, you're still going to be able to get your cheap fatty calories. So actually, the fast food industry is very robust.

our economy is becoming very fragile because of the regulatory capture and also just the hysteria around this space. And we now have 10 companies that are literally the string that if they get pulled on.

puts the global economy into a recession. So it's boring, but my fail is- Scott's worried in LA. Well, a lack of antitrust. When it's gray in LA, I sure like. Anyways, that's- my win is tom cruise finally getting the recognition he deserves and my fail is we have let our economy become way too concentrated across a small number we have an anti-fragile or we have a fragile

economy right now based on this trade which is by the way folks it's now more crazy town than it was in 99. correct all right that's really bracing and sobering. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, this week on with Karen.

Kara Swisher. I spoke with filmmakers Ken Burns and Sarah Botstein about American Revolution, their new six-part docuseries airing on PBS. I highly recommend it. Let's listen to a clip of Ken talking about young people. They're more open. They're persuadable. They went with the democratic socialist, you know? Democratic socialists don't kill Jews. National socialists kill Jews. Many of our allies are...

have been or are democratic socialists. I'm not worried about democratic socialists. I'm worried about dictators. That's what I'm worried about. And so are they because they told us which way they wanted to go. Okay, that was a great interview. And again, I recommend the show. And it's really full of things I didn't know, and I'm a history buff. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot, and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday.

Scott, read us out. Nishat Kura is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.