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Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Scott, happy New Year. Do you miss me? Did you have a good time without me on New Year's? You know, it just wasn't the same. It just wasn't the same. I think New Year's is the worst holiday. Halloween's the best. So on New Year's, I'd like to be able to wear a wig and have women dress up as sluts. You can't do that. Anyways, make New Year's great again.
What did you do, Will? I stayed inside. I don't do it. I'm not a party gal, as I've noted to you, once again, because you don't listen to me. I don't go out. I don't like going out. I like going out to movies. I'm sorry, what did you say? Exactly. It's another year for Karen Scott, I just want to say.
This is the most unlikely relationship I've ever had. Oh, I don't know. I think we're more alike than you think. Really? Okay, we're becoming the same person. We're wealthy white people who are Democrats living in a major city. Yeah, we're so different. Yeah, we're different. Oh, stop it. Oh, my God, cats living with dogs.
Oh, my God. Well, you know, I don't know what to say. I was trying to pay you a compliment. You refused to take it. Happy 2025. I just did a podcast with Theo Vaughn. Go on Theo Vaughn's podcast. You want to feel like you. He's not invited. You are in a bubble and you live in a different world. A, he's very likable. B, he's very funny. And C, I just realized, I am not in touch with America.
Or different parts of America. Listen, they're not in touch with your America either. I push back on things like this. I went to the taping of Charlemagne Tha God's show, and I was like, I don't. know anybody like it was like a different than my world and then i've gone to a couple of things like that and then i think they haven't seen my world there's so many different worlds in this country which is what makes it great it's a salad not a soup it's a salad it's a salad it's a stew it's
It's a beautiful stew and it's delicious. There are lentils and everything in it. Anyway, this is our annual predictions episode where, of course, Scott excels, where we look into our crystal balls and make our best guesses about what we think will happen in the coming year. We also get a little help. from some friends of Pivot who will give us their best predictions on business, tech, and politics. And we're going to give some of our...
own. I just want to note, you were the most popular TED Talk of 2024, looking back, very briefly. And that was full of predictions. That was full of predictions. Care, care, please. Let's move on. I don't like it. I'm sorry. I didn't even listen to you say that I was the most popular TED Talk of 2024. Speaking of bubbles. I don't.
Elite bubbles. I don't want to dwell on this. I think this is essentially like going to the Lincoln Center and being named the whitest person in the world. Yeah, it's like the NPR award. It is so like... It's such a mix of NPR meets not quite a legitimate McCarthy Nobel, but you're basically...
kind of yelling, screaming at a bunch of 55-year-old white people in Vancouver. You were literally translucent. Yes, you made predictions there. You made predictions there. I like that speech, actually. You know, a lot of people who went, and you are correct on the demographic of that. I really thought your speech was the best of that gang. I have to tell you, they did. I appreciate that. Of course it was. You mean I beat Bill Ackman? No.
They did not like Bill Ackman. They thought he was an arrogant prick. And I think that's about right. So we were, of course, we're making, like Scott was in his TED Talk, we're making predictions all year. Scott more than I. And for those keeping score at home, some of the things Scott got right. Scott is Mr.
predictions. Reddit's IPO was a huge success, advertising up, stock up, everything else. Nike's CEO found himself out of a job, as did Intel's CEO, something we talked about. And the Apple Vision Pro continues to struggle. I was wrong. That was an easy one. That was literally the easiest one of the year. John, shoot!
uses it for wicked. So I'm going to take that victory. That was the easiest one. Okay. All right. All right. I'll note on last year's predictions episode, I correctly predicted that the DOJ would win the Google Monopoly case. And when it comes to predictions we got wrong, there was, of course, the election. Oh, oops. Both of us. Both of us, wow. I was fairly confident. I wasn't willing to bet a lot of money on it. Yeah, no, I wasn't. But it was, yeah. I'm having some lunches with...
Kamala Harris people, so I'm going to hear a lot. So I'll let you know over this next month. So just let's leave it at that. We were wrong. And we'll see what 2025 will bring. So we're going to start talking about that with our predictions episode. To start things off, let's listen to a prediction from our friend, the one and only Don Lemon.
Hello, Kara and Scott. Don Lemon here. My prediction for 2025 is a totally self-serving one and selfish, but I believe it to be true. I think it's going to be a banner year for the Don Lemon Show. But I also think it's going to be a banner year and a banner next. four years, as a matter of fact, for independent streamers and podcasters and folks who are in the digital space. I know.
as you do, as the ratings are showing, that folks are tired of getting their news from corporate media, they're tired of the influence from there, and they're tired of not hearing it straight. In their estimation, I also believe that advertisers who had been reticent or reluctant to advertise around news and politics will have no other choice.
But to do so, because when Donald Trump is in office, he dominates every facet of the zeitgeist, whether it's politics, sports, entertainment, and on and on and on. And I think those advertisers will not be so worried about brand safety, and they're going to want to put their money. where the eyes and ears are. And that's independent media, streamers, podcasters like me and you guys. What do you think? I think Don is talking his own book, but I think he's right.
Yeah, the nuance there I would offer is the following. I find that when people leave traditional media, usually after they've been asked to leave, they start shitposting traditional media. And what I have found is that traditional media still, whether it's Stephanie Ruhl or Neil Cavuto or Anderson Cooper or, you know, name your favorite journalist.
I find them still as fearless as ever and still doing really great work. The difference here and the reason why I think Don's pod and our pod and the quote-unquote the creator economy will continue to thrive is a very boring. And that is for every 100,000 people or for every person that works at Pivot, we get approximately 40 or 50,000 downloads.
At Fox and CNN, for every person that works there, they get about 8,000 views. When you take out, when the means of production goes from a huge building, billions of dollars of cable in the ground, offices, HR, lawyers. Town cars. Yeah, it's just the cost of delivering the news. We can deliver entertaining news for a fraction of the price. And Kara and Scott.
garner a disproportionate amount of the value created because the means of production is not standing in between us our means of production is computers and some talented and four or five talented producers so the capital flows The human capital flows into podcasting are going to be enormous because, quite frankly, the reality is other than maybe a dozen stars in TV, Karen Scott are making more money.
And that's why you're going to see just so much talent come into this space because Comcast takes a 97% tax on the revenue you produce. On the 11th hour, Stephanie Ruhle. Yeah, I would agree. She's not getting her value. We pay dramatically less tax for the means of production, Vox, and distribution.
And also, the demographics, the average cable viewer is 70. The average podcast listener is 34 and male. Who's more likely to buy your stupid products or vote for your candidate, a 34-year-old male or a 7-year-old woman? The increase in popularity isn't a function quite frankly of the quality or of the fearlessness or because traditional lamestream media gets it wrong. No, they don't. They're doing a great job. As a matter of fact, just let's give credit due where it's due.
Our show is largely outlined by the work that traditional media is doing. That is correct. And the great reporting they're doing. Although we do a lot of interviews. We also do reporting, I would say. I agree. And we bring an interesting viewpoint and a chemistry. We're built on a house of...
of fearless reporting from traditional media. A hundred percent. I love that you went with this thing because I agree with you. I don't like to, I, you and I insult mainstream media much less than the people who leave. And they all have to because they're angry because, you know, Don's lost.
this big thing. And by the way, Don, your voice is fantastic still. Much better than ours. He's got a great voice. It's a handsome voice, isn't it? Don't you think? Here's the problem, though. Don's meant for TV because he's good looking. Like the two of us, podcasting is our medium, baby. You're doing TV because...
You have a little bit of makeup and you have good hair. Daddy's sticking to podcasts. Yeah. Well, here's the thing I think that they don't recognize is that there is opportunity for all those people on regular TV because that some of them. Now, interestingly, I am the person. Everyone has to have lunch with when they want to start a famous TV or NPR or whoever calls Kara Swisher for lunch when they want to start.
And it's really, I'm sure it happens to you, but a lot of them, some of them I'm like, I listen to them, and they're different people. They're very different people, all of them. Some of them I'm like, yeah, you can do it. I can see it, right? And some of the people I'm like, mm-mm-mm. And it's largely based on... entrepreneurism, the ability to tolerate risk. And some of them have either been overpaid and used to the town cars and everything else. Some of them
have been like that. And I think Don's really working hard. Katie Couric works really hard, right? You could see them, you know, just working it every day. Not everything works. And so it depends on who it is.
As to advertisers, I do think brand safety is still important. I think nobody wants misinformation and ugliness. I suspect we make more money when things are bigger than us because they're so mean and rageful. That would be my guess if I had to guess. I don't think they're... drowning in advertising in some of these.
some of these sites, even if they're bigger. And I don't think, I think advertisers are still want to be next to brands that are safe, not safe, but are more, they want to have good audiences, even if it's not as big an audience. That's my. feeling.
We are, speaking of drowning, all I do is read advertisements, and we just have this big thing with Elf. They're coming all over the place. That is 100% true, and I think we're going to see a big boom. Anyway, let's get to the next one. Next up, here's a prediction from Friend of Pivot and Founding... partner of Puck News, and I texted with him last night, very late into the night, Bill Cohen. Let's listen.
What you're going to see probably in the first half of 2025 is a bunch of the Hollywood media behemoths, Comcast, Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount Global. Disney begin to shed their linear TV assets, either by spinning them off or doing deals with private equity firms. The EBITDA is continuing to shrink. Private equity firms like Blackstone or Apollo or KKR or TPG are going to invest in these assets, these spun-off companies, and use them as ways to acquire.
and conglomerate and consolidate the rest of the so-called failing linear TV assets. And I think you're going to see that in the first half of the year, regardless of... who Donald Trump puts in as the administrators of the Federal Trade Commission or people who oversee in the Justice Department mergers and acquisitions. On to 2025. Thank you. I mean, we've talked about this, Scott. I mean, I think it's green light for mergers and a roll-up of...
Not just these TV assets is a great idea. Roll-ups are often very good ideas and industrialization, as I think Barry Dillard told us when we talked to him. This idea of rolling up and... is a great idea. This stuff throws off so much cash, and even if they're failing and EBITDA is shrinking, it's...
It's a great idea, and these private equity firms will do a great job of that. And others, too. I think it's not going to just be private equity firms. Thoughts? Yeah, Comcast has already started. It goes back to what we were saying before, the means of production. is expensive. The CFO, the building, HR, marketing, all those people. But I think I told you this, one of the best investments I ever made was I...
I invested with a friend of mine, a guy named Jason Mudrick, who runs a distressed debt company, and he brought a Yellow Pages company out of bankruptcy. And it was a pretty simple playbook. We went to... Another Yellow Pages company that was struggling and we said, we're going to acquire you and you can pick these things up inexpensively because they're melting ice cubes. And then quite frankly, you keep the best salespeople and you lay off everyone else.
And I know that sounds harsh, but that's capitalism. And you now have and they're going to do the same thing here. They're going to acquire all of these front end assets, keep the best people, keep the front end programming. And they will be able to generate, you know, the three or four hundred million.
top line revenues and 100 million in EBITDA, but they'll be able to do it at 140 million EBITDA because they'll be able to strip out a bunch of costs by having one means of production, one infrastructure. And they'll just go. player by player by player and roll these things up. This is...
This is a classic kind of private equity play or distressed debt play, although their debt isn't distressed. And there are a ton of players ranging from Time Warner to Disney that are going to be happy to say, here, take this asset. I'll take cash and stock and it'll unlike.
value in my resident company because now I can just talk about Disney Plus and the parks, which is a much cleaner, better story. And also, it's better for these companies to be smart. I know they're all worried wherever they are, CNBC or MSNBC. You get to be good.
to like focus, they're not going to necessarily cut their way. Like they're not going to like just bleed the assets. I think, I think they're not going to bleed the assets. And it's actually an opportunity. Every time I think of one of these, I'm like, huh, what would I do with that? Right. You know, like instead of just. you know, talking them down like a lot of stupid media reporters do. And I'm thinking of a couple in mind. I'm like, huh.
What could I do with that? That could be interesting. And I think it's not going to be just these private equity, though they're very good at it. There's going to be some really, I think, very interesting people looking at all kinds of things. I can't believe I'm paying this compliment.
Ben Shapiro's company, $200 million in revenue, apparently, that they did an interview. That's great. And then what could he buy, right? Could he consolidate? There's all kinds of things like that. And there will be players who don't.
Don't seem like they could consolidate. The Daily Wire is 200 million? Yeah, apparently. Why would they merge with Vox? They're not going to merge with Vox. What are you talking about? Why don't they? Why wouldn't they merge with Vox? I don't know. I'm just saying that's the kind of stuff you're going to see. I think those companies are also in a position.
to do things and to get investments and create these new roles. So it's going to not just be these private equity people. I think it's going to be, like, I literally sink there and like, should I buy that? Could I buy that? And it's not could I buy that? It's should I buy that? And there's ways to do it now.
Anyway, it's just an interesting time. And of course, you know, the green light is on for mergers all over the place. So we'll see that. Okay, Scott, now we have a prediction on tariffs. Let's hear it. Hi, Carrie and Scott. I'm Kyla Scanlon, economic commentator and author of In This Economy, and my prediction for 2025 is that we might see an unexpected twist in Fed policy due to some price pressures from tariffs, and I think we might learn a hard lesson about what
those broad-based tariffs really mean. So I asked this to contact Kyla. I'm trying to do a better job of, you know, you... You promote and evangelize your friends and the people you know, and I realize I want to do a better job of bringing more sunshine to younger people. Yeah. And she's this... analyst who started just creating content about the economy on TikTok. And I just found her so insightful. I have her as a regular guest on Prop G. Fantastic. But she basically correctly says, look.
Tariffs are nothing but taxes and that we've been here before. And you're going to see, I mean, this to me, and I'll piggyback off her. These tariffs go away or have serious. serious pushback the first month that inflation looks to be spiking again. Okay. All right. And anything with the Fed? What do you think when you're referencing the Fed? What do you think about that? I don't know. I think the Fed is kind of...
I think the Fed was hoping and investors were hoping to go into a rate cutting cycle. And because inflation is said, kind of gone a little bit Glenn Close and said, no, I'm not going anywhere. Remember that? That was such a good movie. I will not be ignored. I will not be ignored. I'm not going to be ignored, Dan. I think all of a sudden it's not entirely sure.
that we've beaten inflation. All of a sudden, everyone's like, okay, did we really put a stake through the heart of this thing? Or is it just resting and waiting to strike again? Once the tariffs are in place. So this unexpected twist would be rise in the interest rate. Well, yeah, that all of a sudden,
All of a sudden, one, we have inflation creeps back, and the Fed all of a sudden starts to have, again, begin making noises about, A, not only not cutting rates, I can't imagine they would raise rates, but... The economy is growing stronger than people had originally anticipated, and inflation is improving while coming down.
There's been, it popped last month again, and everyone is very scared. Everyone's like, we are not going back there. Thank you for bringing Kyla, by the way. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll hear from some more friends at Pivot and make our own predictions. Support for pivot comes from life 360.
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And how can we start to get it right? I mean, I think we assume that happiness is about positive emotion on all the time, right? Often very high arousal positive emotion, but that's not really what we're talking about. I'm Preet Bharara. And this week, Dr. Laurie Santos joins me on my podcast, Stay Tuned with Preet, to discuss the science behind happiness. We explore job crafting, the parenting paradox, the arrival fallacy, and why acts of kindness
might be the simplest path to fulfillment. The episode is out now. Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, Scott, now we have a prediction from your good friend, Ian Bremmer, on foreign policy. Let's play it. Hi, Kara and Scott. It's Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. And my prediction for 2025 is that President-elect Trump is going to have more foreign policy successes than people think. A few reasons for it.
compared to 2017. First, more leaders are aligned with him ideologically. A number in Europe, soon to be Canada once Trudeau is out, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, Israel, Gulf states, and more. Second, More loyalty and a more consolidated group. among Trump administration appointees this time around means that countries are going to have a lot less success going around him and talking to the so-called Republican adults as they did last time. Third,
The U.S. is asymmetrically a lot more powerful than its allies compared to Trump's first term. True in the economy, true in energy production, true in technology. And so it's easier. for Trump to get what he wants from these countries. And finally, the stakes, the geopolitical stakes, given the level of instability, the wars going on, the challenges with the global economy are higher.
in other countries getting Trump wrong. And so, I mean, for all of us that have been watching Republicans falling in line behind Trump, I think we're going to see a lot more of this than you might expect. on the international front in 2025. That's interesting. Yeah, I would tend to agree with him. I think he's in a stronger position in that regard. That said, you never know what crazy things can come out of his mouth. It's like he puts someone good in place and then Peter Navarro.
someone good in place than Kash Patel. So you never know what he's going to do. And, you know, Jeff Bezos had been saying he was calmer. I think it's just he's older and slower. I guess that would be a good thing. So I don't know. I think it's probably a pretty...
Decent prediction? Thoughts? Yeah, and a lot of it is because he's been given a really strong hand. He comes in, as any president does, with a hand that's sort of already been dealt. And if you look at China's economy as a bit of a mess. You know, it appears to have bottomed out, but it doesn't have nearly, you know, by now. But they were predicting by 2030 China was going to have a bigger economy than the U.S. That's just nowhere near sight now. No one is even saying.
that China is going to be a bigger economy than the United States. Our adversary, Russia, is bogged down in a war. Our ally in the Middle East, Israel, has punched back and basically cut the hands off the proxies of Iran. I mean, the U.S. In terms of economic power, we're going to be responsible for probably two-thirds plus of the gross domestic product growth next year. I mean, our economy, there's 190 countries, 189 would trade places with us.
Every kind of adversary is a little bit on its heels. So he's, quite frankly, he's been dealt a pretty good hand if he wants to. If he wants to kind of go on offense around some issues, he's just playing with it. 58% of the world's global currency reserves are the U.S. dollar right now. Our tech is stronger than ever. Our military is stronger than ever. Who, relative comparatively, is in a stronger position than the U.S. right now? He's got a good hand. Yeah, he's got a good hand.
Yeah, I think Ian's right. I think the issue is, one, what crazy thing is going to happen that we don't know about. That's always the thing. Like, right? Did we think this? Did we think... October 7th was going to happen. Did we think this? The pandemic. So there's always this exogenous circumstance that might happen, right? So I don't know how he's going to react. I do think...
The problem Trump faces without those adults around is that he has a lot of yes men. And I always think that's a problem in tech companies, in companies. If he has everyone agreeing with him, that's a problem.
for him and others because largely he's, you know, just not sophisticated. Like he had to be told that there were two Koreas last time around. I guess he knows that now and he's a quick learner, that's for sure. And I do think his age is something that we're not factoring into this. I think there's...
You already saw some declines on the campaign trail. The pressure of the presidency is enormous. I think he'll have a Biden-y kind of problem because of his age. I think his age has not been factored in here in a way that needs to be. Yeah, but to Biden's credit. I mean, first off, I want to collect all the emails I got from Democratic operatives, including some of our friends, berating me for suggesting that Biden was too old to run for president. I remember. And but Biden, to his credit.
I think he knew what he didn't know, and he appointed really smart people. And so even when the president didn't have the strongest voice in the room or the ability to command the room the way maybe a Bill Clinton might have or... Who are the smartest presidents? Maybe, I don't know, who had the clearest blue flame thinkers? Anyways, I'm not going to go there. We'll bring on Michael Beckschloss or Doris Kearns Goodwin.
He deferred to people. So what you got to hope with someone like Trump, I almost think it'd be good for the country if he has some powerful people who are knowledgeable and smart. Rubio. Secretary of State, right? I think Senator Rubio is a good pick. And hopefully he'll immediately establish the credibility with Trump. And hopefully Trump will decide, you know, I'm just going to go play golf this weekend and I'll let the Secretary of State handle it.
But then you have Tulsi Gabbard, right? You have like, you know, you just have to like, this is the problem. There are some real whack jobs in there who are also have their own agendas. I'll say this lastly on the age thing with Trump. I just saw a picture of Biden right before he took office and now, and the difference is so drastic. I was like, ooh, look at that handsome, vibrant man, right?
I just think age is—we cannot count out age in this situation with him. I think he is probably calmer because he's older and he— doesn't follow as quickly. I think we're going to be talking about that. That was going to be part of my prediction. But anyway, we'll see. The decline is not linear. I mean, we said it and we were accused of being ageist. It was ridiculous towards the end. Anyway.
Yeah, I agree. And I think Trump's going to suffer from the same problem because that job is one hard job. I don't care how much golf he plays. It's still hard. OK, Scott, next up is a prediction from tech reporter Zoe Schiffer on Elon Musk. Let's listen. Hey, Karen, Scott. This is Zoe Schiffer from Wired's Uncanny Valley. I think in 2025, we're going to see Elon Musk deploy his political playbook around the globe to support his political interests and Tesla and Starling's financial interests.
which maybe isn't a prediction so much as an observation. Bye. Yeah, I think so. I mean, come on, he's going to do it. This is something Mark Cuban said when he bought Twitter. It's not about Twitter. He's going to lose all kinds of money. It's going to help him politically and especially for his businesses.
I think he's going to not just involve himself in political activity abroad, which he already does. I think he's going to do much more of that because he's been emboldened. But locally in the United States, I think he's going to, you know, I think probably Trump says, you don't follow along, my friend. Elon Musk here has got a big gun. And just, you know, listen, here's my...
Here's my body man, Elon Musk, my best friend. He's going to deploy all kinds of money against you. So as long as he's interested. The one thing I do disagree with Zoe is I think Elon is going to lose interest. I think this is going to bore the shit out of him. You saw it. I know it sounds. But if you watch that Thanksgiving video from-
Trump, I could see him thinking, oh, what the fuck am I doing here? Like, I don't know why there was a thing that flashed across his face from the old Elon Musk that I thought, oh, he's really, this is boring him. This is uninteresting to him. It would be nice if he got back to, like, working on Starlink and SpaceX and things that are more, that he has better contributions to. So, I don't know. I don't know. We'll see.
That feels right to me. The kind of disappointing thing in all of this is that it's become, and people would argue that Democrats operate a different type of kleptocracy where we have lobbyists who go. help senators maintain their seat or their incumbency. And there's regulatory capture. See above. We pay double for health care with worse outcomes.
It's become so naked and so brazen here that it really is a kleptocracy. And I'm just so uncomfortable with, I mean, you predicted this and I didn't want to acknowledge it, but I think you got it right. I think Elon Musk played a pretty big role in Trump's election. And as a result, Musk has already increased his net worth by 50 or 100 billion dollars. There's just something sort of uncomfortable that really augurs a more thoughtful conversation around campaign finance where.
The wealthiest people in the world double down on a candidate, and as a result, their company gets... or gets the largest customer in the world and the most powerful company from a regulatory standpoint, the U.S. government, which It comes at a cost. It is a zero-sum game at that point. And the other folks that either stayed out of the race and didn't want to support a candidate or supported the other candidate lose. And there was always meant to be a bit of a...
you know, a separation between not only church and state, but between our government and the private sector. And this is a step towards a constantly cry socialism or communism. The thing, the key attribute about... socialism and communism and a kleptocracy is that the government starts influencing the means of production. And that's what's happening here, that, okay, if you give me $150 million and weaponize your media to get me elected and flout election, campaign election rules.
The market senses, oh, SpaceX and Tesla are about to get a bunch of unearned business and contracts. That is not how capitalism is supposed to work. The point of a government is to create rule of fair play that creates full body contact. violence through competition. And then the best company wins. Agreed. Agreed. I do think this has been going on forever and it's just explicit rather than implicit.
now you know but it's only one person and it's his interests and therefore no matter how you slice it it's not going to be in he's just not going to have every good idea he's He's just not a genius you think he is. He's a very smart man. He's done amazing things, blah, blah, blah. But let me say, one person influencing things is always, always a problem. I don't care how smart he is, right? And I think he's...
I just sense he's going to get bored. It's boring. It is boring. This is boring. This is horse trading. And he's... And he's more, I'm going to pay him a compliment, he's more interesting than that. And so, you know, a lot of people I've talked to who know him well, it's like, he could do such good. And he's doing such weird bad. He talks about the deep state and everything else. He is completely putting it into place in a way that he used to decry.
I mean, I remember when he called me when he won that first SpaceX contract, he was thrilled because Lockheed and the rest and Boeing had it locked up in this very corrupt way. And he's like, finally, we're going to see some. innovation. And I was actually happy for myself as a citizen and also for him. And now he's that. He's become the person he had decried. And of course, that's...
You know, it's his tale as old as time. So we'll see. And we'll see how he gets along with Trump. I think he's done a pretty good job doing it because he's acquiesced and baited himself. But I'm not sure he can bait himself for... ever. We'll see. Maybe it amuses him. Maybe he needs family. I don't know. That weird dysfunctional Trump family is a family, whether you like them or not. I don't know. Anyway, we'll see.
Okay, Scott, last but never least, a prediction from the Mooch himself, Anthony Scaramucci. Okay, two... incredibly zany predictions for 2025. The first one is a business one. And that is that IBM is going to have an incredible year and start to render an AI sort of multiple. So remember they discovered Watson, the AI.
the original AI, if you will, and they are going to catch fire with AI. On the political front, this is going to be a shocker, but Donald Trump is going to create a path to NATO membership for the Ukraine. Those are kind of cool. I like the mooch, Anthony Scaramucci. He sounds like he's in the closet and his wife's asleep. I know. I don't know what he was doing. I was like, are you being pursued by mobsters? The call is coming from inside of the house. Jesus Anthony.
I know, the Mooch. Has he got a new baby or something? Is he babysitting a baby? Don't wake the baby. Don't wake the baby. Karen Scott. You know, I don't want to say anything nice about Don Corleone, but here it is. The Mooch is having a moment. literally the
He's the best media guest. He's having, with Bitcoin? Oh, is he big in Bitcoin? He's big in Bitcoin. He is, he is. He was pushing it. He's having a moment. I like that mooch. I like that mooch. He's a thoughtful guy. Also, he has a really surprising command of history. Literally, I just was with him, and I heard so much history and quotes, and he would quote Socrates, like a paragraph of Socrates at me without notes. I was sort of amazed. And there were six of those.
I know, Erasmus. I was like, Erasmus? Where'd you get that one? Okay, first one, IBM. I thought this was interesting. You know, Salesforce is also killing it because of that. They're riding atop the waves. But take on IBM first. I got to be honest, when he said it, it just struck me as really interesting. And it made me want to go buy IBM stock because IBM trades it. I agree.
It trades at a PE of about 33. IBM hires really talented kids. I've always thought if I, I mean, I always have ideas for a fund as opposed to just doing what I'm supposed to do and then just put it in index funds. But one of the funds I thought about doing is you get a sense for... Like the companies that attract the best human talent out of my class generally are doing really well. Amazon at one point was giving offers to 20% of my class for summer internships.
And they were all taking them. And then they're all such little, you know, like they love self-angst. So they come to my office and I got an offer from Amazon, but I'd like to start my own company. I'm like, shut the fuck up. You're going to Amazon. Or they come and say, I got a job. I got an offer.
with J.P. Morgan, but First National in Minneapolis, it's my hometown, and they're so sweet. I'm like, who the fuck are you kidding? You're going to J.P. Morgan. Stop the hand wringing. Oh, Scott, you're such a good daddy. Well, it's like these kids like to create this angst that's like, I know where you're going. Stop wasting my time. Anyway. Let me just say, you were very nice to my son who paid you a compliment. Oh, thank you. He listens to Scott and not his mother, but go ahead.
So, by the way, there's a lesson in that, and that is if your son is not listening to you, even if you're a dad, find a friend to talk to him. Kids are more likely to listen to their father's friends sometimes than their father. That's actually an unlock. And don't be... Don't be upset about it. It's natural. Anyway. Back to IBM and then Ukraine. Sorry, IBM. IBM's got a P of 33. If it got any sort of that AI zhuzh or pixie dust, this stock could double or triple.
It's a well-run company. The new guy, the mooch is saying it has assets. It has IP around AI. It has customer relationships. It has compute. I mean... It's not a bad flyer. I was thinking about taking a little bit of money and buying IBM stock. But I love the out-of-favor stuff. It's Arvind Krishna. Arvind Krishna is the thing. And I would agree with you. I am thinking of Salesforce, which doesn't have to invest $50 billion.
They're taking the money that Google and the rest are spending on this and they're riding on the rails and putting them into place. That's seen a surge itself. Stock's up 50% in the last year. I mean, it's doing pretty well, but still, if it gets any of that. AI veneer. And in this case, it's not veneer. It's real. So that is true. I think that's a good one. Ukraine? Donald Trump would be the one. It's like Nixon in China. That's what it feels like, maybe.
He'll do some stupid deal where he'll give away everything to Russia. Either way, because he does those. I mean, I would like to hear his thought process there, because the Russia... And sympathizers say that the reason Russia invaded is because of the threat of Ukraine going into NATO. I don't know what he would have to... That seems, I think...
I feel like I'm out over my skis here. I don't know how to evaluate that. It doesn't sound likely to me, though. I think he's either going to do some... I mean, you know, this is something that Zelensky has been talking about. If you let us into NATO, we'll peace deal. That's one of the things. So I don't know. I feel like probably that conflict will have to end. It doesn't make any frigging sense anymore. Everyone's got to give.
They've fought it to a stalemate, essentially. And Russia has the advantage here. especially under Donald Trump. Although Donald Trump's going to be like, Russia don't invade anymore because you make me look bad. I think he's a terrible deal maker. Most of the time he gives away the house. That's what people tell me. And I think he'll probably give away the house to get something like this. But he would, I think this, here's what I do.
Speaking of old Donald Trump, I think he wants to win the Nobel Prize Prize more than anything. And he craves status. He craves acceptability by the elites he so decries. He does not like his base. He likes people like us.
and he would like to get the Nobel Prize. He's talked about it, and if he could do a couple of things, he might in fact get it. So there you have it, I think. I don't know. I think it's a good one. I don't know. Nobel Peace Prize. I'm telling you. Medal of Freedom. The thing that all these people... really
Desire is the premier accolade in Western civilization, and that is to be the number one TED Talk of 2024. Hello, ladies. Whitest man in the world. Sexiest man alive. Yeah. Okay. All right. Okay. Nice for you. Okay. Anyway, I think— Trump wants that so badly. He's said it so many times and it makes him mad. And he's like a kid looking into the window of the house he never gets into. He wants in that house.
I think he's going to try to get in that house again because he can't get away from it because he's an outsider who wants to be in. That's my prediction on him. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll make some predictions of our own for 2025, and then we're out. you
Okay, Scott, now it's time for our predictions. I'm going to do mine first because they're faster than yours. And you're just going to, you know, I'm going to stick with what I talked about before. I think Donald Trump's age might become an issue in the next two years. I think the presidency is incredibly difficult.
And even though I don't agree with Jeff Bezos, because I think he's an opportunistic person who's just quite not rich enough as the second or third richest man in the world, I do think it might be calmer, and it's largely not because he's become wiser. He's not. He's not wise in any way. He's not a good person. He's a serial sexual harasser at the very least. And other things, you know, sexual, he's been convicted of that. I think he's a terrible person. I think his age is going to...
calm him down. I don't know how else to put it, either through natural. what happens when you get older and the difficulties of this. So you may see a calmer Donald Trump. You may see it, and it's not because he's a good person or he's turning the tide or anything else. He also is probably looking at his legacy now, and he's a lame duck.
president. No matter how you slice it, he's a lame duck president. And again, people around him are aware of it. I've heard it from so many people in his party. We only need him for a couple more years. They've said it. And then we'll make him into an icon. We'll do some statues. All good.
And so I think it's going to maybe a little surprising, and it's not, again, not because he's a good person. As to my other prediction, I do think there's going to be a lot more, as Scaramucci noted, there's going to be a lot more advantage to companies in AI that you aren't thinking of, like IBM, Salesforce, a lot of the others that are going to ride on the rails of the enormous spending.
that whether it's $30 billion from Meta, whether it's $50 to $80 billion from Microsoft, or all of them are spending. I think those who ride the rails on these things are going to be the beneficiaries that put them into place.
place, whether you're Salesforce helping Disney with lines, that's one of their clients, or IBM or things like that. So I would look to those companies in a lot of ways who are going to be the real beneficiaries. It reminds me of the early internet. It was not the companies that... put up the websites like NextScape. It was the companies that rode the rails and these rails are being put in place.
not by our government, but by companies, and they're getting paid for, whether it's energy costs, everything else. So I would look to those companies in 2025. I think the AI revolution is just getting started, and it will start to really, it reminds me of early. early internet and who began and who succeeded were two very different parties. On to you, Scott Galloway. I like those. So, okay, so briefly.
2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be OpenVIDIA. OpenAI and NVIDIA right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI, 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those. Answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new Wintel and people start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.
We haven't seen – I think we're going to see a bunch of raft of new unicorns in the application layer of AI. We have the infrastructure layer. We have the LLMs themselves. But every – Innovation or new technology creates a bunch of interesting consumer applications. I think you're going to see a raft of new unicorns in healthcare where you upload your medical records, your diet, and it starts playing offense and comes back to you with exact. I told you.
For the first time, I was diagnosed with high blood pressure two and a half months ago. I went into AI. I uploaded my urine, my blood work, my fecal work. I talked very openly about my diet, and it came back with a series of recommendations. took them to heart, and I no longer have high blood pressure. And I think that's going to be systemized, routinized.
And create a bunch of interesting applications around fitness, healthcare, especially I think around travel is a huge opportunity. Look at all, I upload all of my credit card bills, all my past travel, my calendar, and it starts proactively saying, Scott.
We see that you're going to be in L.A. for this meeting. We're going to book you here. You should do this. You should go see your dad. You should do this. I've already organized the flights. What do you upload it to? OpenAI? Well, so, for example, I took my...
MRIs on my shoulders and I uploaded it to OpenAI and I said, please diagnose this and tell me what I should be doing, what stretching I should be doing. And it comes back with a whole list of things. I mean, you can upload a board. I'll give you an example, Kara. We, you know, we're out in the marketplace potentially thinking about our next four years. I uploaded our deck that we put together on summarizing our business. And I said.
I basically said, what is the likely deal we will get and what should we be thinking about? I mean, this shit is so powerful. And instead of having smart people prompt, people are going to build a thin layer of innovation. Oh, yeah. We would call someone in that case. And it's like calling your smart friend. Yeah, interesting. But it'll be proactive. It'll say, OK, here's the new AI-enabled travel and experience. is going very hard at this and I just say it just starts sending me
text alerts saying, oh, we see you have this coming up. This is your travel itinerary and what we're thinking. Here are the decisions I need from you. You know, you just said Expedia. I think they're a ride the rails company too. They're going to benefit. But anyway, they don't have to pay for it. Ride the rails. Yeah, I think so. So anyways, software, basically, SaaS goes from software as a service to services as software. That's where I kind of see my predicts for AI. Podcasts.
This is going to be the breakout year of podcasts because this election just illuminated. what is going to be an enormous transfer of capital from the political spending machine, and that is they used to spend a ton of money on local broadcast TV stations because those were voters, i.e. old people were. And what they realized is where you go for voters is podcasts.
And if you can go on one podcast and get the equivalent listenership of going on CNN, MSNBC, or Fox every night during primetime for three hours for a week by going on one podcast. You're just going to see in the amount of capital it's drawing, the means of production are less expensive. So creators make more money, which is drawing in more human capital. 47% of people have listened to a podcast in the last 30 days versus less than 10%.
15 years ago. I mean, the medium is just the medium is going to boom. And Kara, I don't know. I'm sure you're getting the same calls. I have all of these political candidates reaching out to me, asking me for their for my views on things, which means. I am running for something and I want to come on your podcast. I have had four U.S. senators write me both recently, text me this week. It was crazy. Yeah. Can I come on your podcast?
And several governors, several governors. I say to them, you're ambitious and you're running for something. That's fine for me. Yeah, 100%. But don't pretend you want to talk to me about policy. Anyways, this and podcast revenue in 2025 is going to grow faster, granted off a small base, than Meta or Alphabet or Amazon. It's going to be up 20 plus percent.
The CPMs, it's a better consumer. It's a 34-year-old versus a 7-year-old. It's much more impactful because we do host readovers. People go to cable news. to sanctify their beliefs. People go to podcasts to learn. And also there's a vibe about podcasts where we try and present people in their best light. And it's quite frankly, it's just a little bit more pleasant.
So IPO of the year, I think it's going to be, and it's going to be an interesting one because it's probably going to have the London exchange. Shein. These asset light models, and disclosure, I'm an investor, but if you look at Airbnb versus Marriott, it needs a third of the employees with the same revenue. If you look at Zara, they're doing about $400,000 per employees, whereas Sheehan said $2 million per employee.
If you look at Uber versus the car manufacturers, these asset light, all IP intensive versus CapEx intensive companies, Shein doesn't own a single truck, factory, warehouse, store. It's all software driven. This year, it's bigger than Amazon retail in apparel. And next year, it's going to pass Walmart to be the best apparel retailer in the world. And it's going public on the London Exchange. I think for a lot of reasons, that's going to, quote unquote, be the IPO of the year.
I think the technology of the year is nuclear. You just saw Facebook basically put out an RFP saying, build us a nuclear power plant. The friction in AI is energy. It requires 10 times the energy. And people have realized that it's one of the safest, most productive, most reliable sources of energy. It's just been terribly branded the last 20 or 30 years.
Some of the biggest brains have turned their massive capital fire hoses on nuclear. 2025 is going to be the year nuclear. That'll be the technology of the year. And the substance of the year. is testosterone, and that is this election was supposed to be a referendum on women's rights. It wasn't. It was a referendum on how poorly young people are doing, specifically young males.
And I think we're having a more honest and open conversation around the attributes around masculinity and the struggles of young men. I think that's come to the fore. And Trump flying into the manosphere was a direct... One of the fundamental reasons he was able to win the election, I think, if you look at the election who swung most violently away from blue to red... It was people under the age of 30 and women 45 to 64 who I speculate are their mothers. I think mothers and young people.
are really hit hard by young people not doing as well. And they just don't have the luxury of thinking about some of the other social issues when their kids aren't doing well. So once again, the penis. Once again, the penis.
Well, what I would argue is I think people are coming to the conclusion that women will not continue to flourish, nor will the country flourish, if men flounder, young men. Can I ask you something about that? Because I was just, when you talk about that, and I get that, I completely agree with you.
Here we are again, scared of a group of people. It's not as if, if they don't flourish, we should bring their, like with women, it's like, let's bring their talent up because there's some more talent. We're not scared of them. If men don't flourish, we all get hurt. If women don't flourish, we all don't get hurt.
Right. Like it's really always like we have to keep this this boiling pot from boiling over. And sometimes it's really irritating to say is I get it. But I'm also like nobody else gets this much. attention for their destruction. That's my feeling anyway. Well, I would agree and disagree. And that is to say that we better...
treat them well, or they're going to show up and start shooting up our schools. That's just repackaged violence. It also pathologizes young men. The majority of young men who are struggling are not going to pick up an assault rifle. I get it. And they're more inclined to harm themselves. I would argue.
that we recognize that women in the workforce, women having equal rights was a priority and really good for everybody. And we've made extraordinary strides around that. And as a result, no group has ascended faster, farther. than women globally. Twice as many are seeking, more women are seeking tertiary education around the world than men.
And when you look at the fact a lot of countries, specifically Muslim countries, discourage women from going to church school, that's extraordinary. More women, twice as many women have been elected to some form of parliament globally just in the last 30 years. In the US, women under the age of 30 are making more money.
More single women own single homes. And I want to be clear, this is a collective victory. We should do nothing to get in the way of this. Also, it's getting them to equality, not getting them, you know, they hadn't. had that for centuries, right? This progress, all I have to say around this is right on sister. But we should also acknowledge that empathy is not a zero-sum game. And my view has always been the following. You know who wants more economically and emotionally viable men?
Women. I know. We need our young people need to thrive. And both young men and young women have seen a transfer of wealth out of their pockets to older people. And it has been especially hard on young men whose role was largely seen as an economic provider. And because a lot of their en route.
on ramps into the middle class have been shut down. Young men just feel as if they have no identity. I think you pegged this very early, Scott, and I agree with you. I just think we pivot around that fucking penis all the time. But I would argue that we've been there for women and we should have a collective and we need to still acknowledge that women still face huge issues. But again, empathy is not a zero sum game. And I will acknowledge that we shouldn't.
We should stop this narrative of you better treat men better or they're going to shoot up the school. That's just repackaged violence. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And or rape us and or. Blank and or. And you know who's leading this conversation? You are specifically mothers. I've been barking about this for five years and immediately people call me a misogynist. And you know who I'm hearing from and who's leading this conversation is the same people who got.
who got alcohol limits rates of 21, and that is mothers. Mothers see what is going on here. They're like, my son is really struggling. If you go into a morgue... And you find five people who've died by suicide, four are men. Yeah. Let me say, you have done wonders for my kids. And I think because of the better... example. You have. My sons, my older sons. Good luck with Saul, I'll say. You're going to have to work cut out for you.
But I have to say, a good male role model is critically important. And I pay you that compliment because I think it is. I loved getting messages from Alex about how much you've affected him, right? Thank you for so much. But I do think, I just think we have to not.
get out of the idea that if we don't fix them, they're going to kill us. That's not a productive conversation. It's not, but it's a feeling. And the reality is that they kill themselves. You do get a feeling around when you have the Pete Hegg says, all these violent men.
We have to like... calm them down like i'd like to them to just go like and i'd like to have better anyway this is such an important conversation because part part of the solution here is we have to redefine masculinity right as something aspirational and one of the first things you have to think about is protection. And an attribute of masculinity shouldn't be that you're a little bit rapey or you've spent time in prison. That's not masculinity. That's criminal. That's criminality.
And unfortunately, one of the things I just can't stand about Trump or your buddy Musk, or our former buddy Musk, is that they've conflated masculinity with coarseness and cruelty. And if you really think about the men who you really admire in your life...
They take blows. They add surplus value. They break up fights. Someone insults them or cuts them off in traffic, they're fine because they're confident. They're okay with it. They can deal with it. These guys, the biggest, I think these guys, I think. I would put at the top of the list the negative externalities of Trump and Musk is that they are terrible role models for young men.
They're teaching young men the wrong behaviors as it relates to women, as it relates to kindness. Anyways, I'm going to start on my TED Talk again. Which was 2025's favorite TED Talk. There you go. Thank you. The movement of the year is going to be banning phones in schools globally.
It's just starting everywhere. Australia is banning social media. We're going to see phones banned in schools all over the world. It's kind of the social movement of the year. And on a much more boring level, I think the biggest...
LBOs in history are going to happen in 2025. There's so much capital on the sidelines. And my favorite two targets are Target and Intel. Target and Intel. All right. Anything else? That's all I got, Kara. I think it's going to be a great year for us. I think it's going to be a nice year. Is there going to be vacation for us together or some?
No, you don't want to vacation with me. I don't want to vacation with you. You got five kids. You got like a hundred kids. I don't want babies. I have a hundred kids. I have a hundred of them. My favorite is when you came to the Hotel 2 Cap and you were there with Amanda and two kids and you just kind of looked at me and said,
Can you take the kids in the pool and just distract Amanda? I just want to sit here. Quietly. And drink wine. Quietly. And have no one around. You're like, can you just get everyone away from you? I do. That's what I hope for. I did this at a dinner the other night. Everyone was talking.
me about loneliness, I'm like, I wish I was lonely. I'd like to be lonely. It's not easy being a mom at 76. That's not easy. It's not. It's not. And yet, here I am. Oh, by the way, I predict great things for our kids all year. I think it's going to be a good year for all our kids, all of them. I think your sons are...
they've spent with this year and i hope to spend more time with them next year is this this coming year they seem to be doing just thriving i think they're all going to be thriving okay let's hope Fingers crossed. What does all is for, right? That's correct. Okay, Scott, that's the show. Please read us on again. Congratulations on your TED Talk thing, but thank you for a terrific 2024.
Michael Esker, I appreciate it. I appreciate your generosity and your partnership. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertot, engineer this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Ms. Saverio, and Dan Shulon. Nishat Karouaz, Fox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Fox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com.
We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Happy New Year.