The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates last week was really “a risk management tool” in the face of softer economic data, including a weaker job market, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “But it was not all about the Fed last week”, Deepak says, pointing to policy decisions in the U.K., Japan, and Canada. “A lot to digest from the global central banks last week.” Looking ahead, a shutdown of the US government remains a possibility, while lawmake...
Sep 21, 2025•11 min•Ep. 227
Markets are anticipating a policy shift this week from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to deliver the first of several rate cuts that could be spread out over the next year, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. “It looks like the US central bank is now pondering the labour market much more,” Dirk says, pointing to weak jobs data to explain why the Fed might look beyond a recent uptick in consumer prices. “The Fed will probably deliver more cuts, and the ECB is almost done,” ...
Sep 14, 2025•15 min•Ep. 226
Interest rates and the US dollar may be heading further down after last week’s US jobs report, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “It was a weak report and the details raise more questions right now”, Markus says, noting that the revision for June was also negative. Meanwhile, US courts have raised questions about the legality of White House tariff policy, but Markus says that markets are taking those questions in stride...
Sep 07, 2025•10 min•Ep. 225
Recent political developments in both the US and France sparked jitters in global markets. However, amid this uncertainty, the signals coming out of Jackson Hole seem clear. “Our view would be that the Fed is cutting rates at the next meeting on the 17th of September,” says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “The market is already forecasting four to five rate cuts until the end of 2026. The question is: will there be even more?” Christian discusses the confid...
Sep 01, 2025•11 min•Ep. 224
While the summer break brings its usual trading slowdown and bond markets in the US have been relatively calm, European bond markets have kept moving. German Bund yields continue to climb and are bringing bonds from across the Eurozone with them, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa. “Yields are going up, the market is normalising and this is spilling over into the Eurozone market.” Dirk discusses the summer lull before markets hea...
Aug 24, 2025•13 min•Ep. 223
The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a rate cut in September, but that doesn’t mean inflation concerns have gone away, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "If consumer price inflation goes higher, which we expect, that could cause some volatility", Christian says, noting that companies have so far been absorbing the impact of tariffs. "Companies are not ready yet to put some costs from the tariffs directly to the consumer, which would be kind of norm...
Aug 17, 2025•10 min•Ep. 222
The latest waves of tariffs were largely shrugged off by stock markets around the world, but that doesn’t mean risks aren’t accumulating behind the scenes, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “It's amazing to see the market being so relaxed about these developments, because we think they pose significant economic headwinds to at least certain sectors”, Dirk says. Still, he also thinks it is important to stay invested in stocks. “If you look a bit more medium term, it's probably w...
Aug 10, 2025•13 min•Ep. 221
Stock markets turned jittery after the latest tariff announcement from the White House, and “we will have another few weeks and months probably ahead of us where tariffs will be a big topic”, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. But that doesn’t mean that gloom will be the predominant mood. “We are actually quite confident that companies will find a way to deal with negative tariff news”, Dirk says. Meanwhile, investors are showing clear interest in the tech megacaps that are spend...
Aug 03, 2025•14 min•Ep. 220
Progress on global trade deals has supported markets recently, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability – though he adds that the coming wave of corporate earnings reports will be scrutinised for impacts from shifting tariff regimes. “Markets will start focusing more on what exactly agreed deals mean for corporate profitability”, Markus says. The first earnings reports have suggested that companies are largely absorbing the tar...
Jul 27, 2025•13 min•Ep. 219
The first round of US earnings reports from the 2nd quarter have been strong out of the gate, says the Private Bank’s Germany CIO Dr. Ulrich Stephan. "A good earnings season start so far", though he notes that it is a bit uneven. "If you look at the smaller companies, they are much more affected by the tariffs", he says, noting that larger companies with a more global footprint are deriving some benefit from a weaker dollar. Headlines around the possibility that President Trump might try to remo...
Jul 20, 2025•13 min•Ep. 218
US equities are trading around record highs after the Trump administration pushed its self-imposed tariff deadline to August, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. At the same time, Fed minutes highlighted differing views at the central bank over the course of rate policy for the rest of the year. “Overall the minutes were highlighting the tension between the upside risk to inflation", Deepak says, "But there were also some voices that were saying that ...
Jul 13, 2025•11 min•Ep. 217
Stock markets are trading around record highs after a bumpy second quarter – but the end of the Trump administration’s tariff pause and the kick-off of US earnings season will be in focus in the week ahead, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's Chief Investment Officer for sustainability and head of the CIO office. "The Q2 S&P rally has indeed been remarkable", Markus says. "Investors have gone back into US stocks. The rally is supported by a very resilient US job market." The Federal Reser...
Jul 06, 2025•15 min•Ep. 216
Stocks have been boosted by a variety of factors, including the Iran-Israel ceasefire and progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. And he says the likely passage of the Republican spending bill could also be supportive: "It is a ‘zoom out’ version of fiscal spending from the government that should be really positive for risk-on.” U.S. labour-market data are likely to take precedence in the week ahead, Deepak says. He als...
Jun 29, 2025•11 min•Ep. 215
“Most central banks will prefer to sit back and wait and see.” In this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly podcast, the Global Head of the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Office, Markus Müller, notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to stay put on rates is likely to be echoed by other central banks, as the economy confronts geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty. The Fed’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, made clear that the U.S. central bank is “well positioned to take a wait-and-see approach on...
Jun 22, 2025•13 min•Ep. 214
Geopolitical instability is back in focus for markets after Israel’s attack on Iran. "Those kind of market events, it's good to review your portfolio", says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. And when it comes to hedging strategies, "The best of course is diversification", Christian says. "You need to have robust portfolios which can take these market movements." The Federal Reserve is due to deliver an updated policy statement, and softer inflation data along...
Jun 15, 2025•10 min•Ep. 213
The Private Bank just published an updated 12-month outlook for markets and the economy, and "We clearly have investments on our mind”, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He notes that European equities in particular could hold interesting opportunities. "You can actually be cautiously constructive... financial markets overall can probably cope with the tariffs that will most likely be implemented", Dirk says. Even during the typically quiet summer months, bouts of volatility ar...
Jun 08, 2025•15 min•Ep. 212
“There are a lot of moving parts to this trade narrative,” says the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, Deepak Puri. Initial market optimism that the tariff narrative was going to be short-lived seems to have been complicated by recent events. “The tariff story may stay with us for some time,” Deepak says, adding that “investors need to be quite nimble about all this”. Recent weakness in bond markets could be linked to oversupply, Deepak explains, with long-dated treasuries...
Jun 01, 2025•11 min•Ep. 211
Markets are focusing again on tariff policies after a period of relative calm, but that shouldn’t be too surprising, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. “I still think there will be a solution. There will be higher tariffs than we have seen before”, Christian says, though he notes that they are likely to be lower than the rates currently under discussion. Earnings season is mostly over, and while companies have delivered solid results, they have also lower...
May 25, 2025•10 min•Ep. 210
Markets have staged a remarkable recovery from the sell-off that began in early April, and "it's been an incredible month", says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "We are still talking about significant tariffs, but there seems to be more of a managed approach", Dirk says. A big part of the rally was "a very supportive earnings season", Dirk says, noting that the important data in the week ahead will be figures on business confidence. "These will be at the centre of the market discu...
May 18, 2025•16 min•Ep. 209
Markets are looking for clarity on what the baseline tariff rates will ultimately be among key trading partners – and the recent U.S.-U.K. trade deal offers a promising sign, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "It might be sort of a blueprint for other trade agreements”, Deepak says, adding that purchase agreements and market access will be closely watched, in addition to the tariffs themselves. In the week ahead, U.S. inflation figures will be a key ...
May 11, 2025•12 min•Ep. 208
Markets have been in a period of relative calm since the significant moves that followed ‘Liberation Day’, but "I'd be a brave man to predict no volatility", says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's CIO for sustainability. "I do hope the worst is over for now, at least until we approach the end of the 90-day pause at the end of July", Markus says, noting that markets will be looking for progress on trade deals in the meantime. In the week ahead, Markus says a rate cut is unlikely from the Federal ...
May 04, 2025•13 min•Ep. 207
Developments in U.S. tariff policy suggest that, when markets have a strong reaction, the White House is prepared to change course, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. “Of course, this was denied by Washington, but I would be surprised if they really don’t look at it,” he says, noting that this applies more to bonds than it does to stocks. In the week ahead, “the number I’m really watching out for on the macro side in the U.S. is, believe it or not, the no...
Apr 27, 2025•12 min•Ep. 206
Tariff moves from the U.S. administration have continued to hold centre stage, and "it has been a very volatile period,” notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "The baseline of what that means for the macro environment is still to be determined”, Deepak says. “The market is still in a wait-and-watch mode." Earnings season has gotten started in the U.S., and a policy decision is expected from the European Central Bank in the week ahead. But tariff concern...
Apr 14, 2025•11 min•Ep. 205
The Trump administration has rolled out its global tariffs and markets have slumped in response, but "it's our job to keep calm and invest in a very disciplined way", says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "It's really important to focus on risk management these days", Dirk says, adding that diversification and potential hedges are hot topics. Earnings season is coming up, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting are due in the week ahead, but corporate reports economic...
Apr 07, 2025•14 min•Ep. 204
In this week’s PERSPECTIVES podcast, we look ahead to “Liberation Day” – the term used by President Donald Trump to describe Wednesday, April 2, when he is expected to make a new major announcement on tariffs. Deepak Puri, our Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, expects this announcement will focus on reciprocal tariffs, designed to match the import tariffs other countries currently place on U.S. goods. He also discusses sectoral tariffs and secondary tariffs and what they could mean for ...
Mar 30, 2025•10 min•Ep. 203
Rarely does a week go by without tariffs being in the spotlight. In this week’s PERSPECTIVES podcast, we asked Christian Nolting, our Global Chief Investment Officer, what he expects them to mean for investors. "The uncertainty of tariffs is not helpful for growth," he said, noting that professional investors have very different views, and therefore a range of expectations for tariffs, worldwide. “We expect tariffs at the higher end for Europe, as we have seen with Mexico and Canada,” he added. ...
Mar 23, 2025•11 min•Ep. 202
The private bank is standing by its positive market outlook for the next 12 months, and "it will be an earnings-driven market", says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. Double-digit earnings growth remains a possibility and, while major U.S. stock indices have recently entered correction territory, Dirk says the U.S. economy ought to "regain some footing" after its recent soft patch. Meanwhile, a Federal Reserve policy decision is due this week and, even after a recent softening of U.S...
Mar 16, 2025•14 min•Ep. 201
Much of the recent market volatility can be attributed to the wave of on-again-off-again tariff threats from the U.S., which "always result in a big risk-off knee jerk", says Stefanie Holtze-Jen, the Private Bank's APAC CIO. But she notes that while we see China retaliating with tariffs of its own, "it looks very much like they want to negotiate, rather than escalate." The week ahead “will not be boring”, Stefanie says, as we will receive a wealth of data, including Chinese producer and consumer...
Mar 09, 2025•10 min•Ep. 200
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge inched down at the end of last week, but "the main topic remains, for me, inflation", says the Private Bank’s global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. Prices are still rising more quickly than the central bank would like. Still, "the good news is this came in line with expectations of the market", Christian says. Meanwhile, Christian considers the reasons that European stock indexes have outperformed their U.S. counterparts this year. An...
Mar 02, 2025•9 min•Ep. 199
The stock market's ongoing strength in the face of geopolitical instability "is really driven by the fact that the economy is still quite resilient", says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, pointing to solid labour markets and strong economic growth. "It seems we're in a good spot.” Earnings reports from the fourth quarter have also provided plenty of reasons for optimism. "Banks are doing well, which is important to providing liquidity to markets”, Deepak...
Feb 23, 2025•10 min•Ep. 198
