Live from Queensland. This is Paul murray Lyte today.
Good evening and welcome back to Brisbane, Southeast Queensland.
Still dealing with the echoes of Alfred.
There are some big ro problems happening just a little further up the coast. Now tonight on the show, we're going to talk about lots of different heroes that have been working up and down the coast for the past little while, but I want to focus on the people trying to reconnect electricity to hundreds of thousands of people. Will go inside that operation and how it works tonight.
The Nissa Wil's Premier Chris Mins, joined us a little earlier tonight to talk about the issues in northern New South Wales and then back to our usual on Sunday night, which is the state of the Race, the conversation about an election that we thought could have been called as early as this weekend, but because of the events of the past few days, is going.
To be delayed until May.
But first let's start with the weather, and it has been wet and wild this weekend in Southeast Queensland.
And the north of New South Wales.
The rain is coming and going from Brisbane tonight, but the effects are very much still being felt on the Gold Coast. But the real focus right now is a place called Harvey Bay. Now, Harvey Bay is just off the Sunshine Coast and they have been absolutely turned inside out like a pair of socks. Tonight there is footage that is showing us the real problems of hundreds hundreds of millimeters of rain that have fallen there in just a few hours. Eleven people so far have need to
be rescued from the floods. The Premiere, David krus Of, fully in his most recent briefings, is turning his attention to the emergency.
That is happening there. As we speak.
There was two hundred and thirty millimeters of rainfall in just a few hours in Harvey Bay. We've seen that culminating reports of flash flooding in homes and in businesses. There has spen number of Swiss for to rescues and I just want to say a huge yet of gratitude to those emergency services personnel.
Now, one of the problems here is that by having to spread themselves across an area that has got literally millions of people and hundreds of thousands at any one time, that.
Are in the focus.
There are some things that have slipped through the cracks, most notably the information that has been given to the people of Harvey Bay. The Bureau of Meteorology has admitted tonight that while they had the information eventually, they didn't have it early enough. A statement from the Bureau of Meteorology says that Harvey Bay was included in a severe weather warning that was issued at five am. However, they
now acknowledged that the event had happened much earlier. The latest numbers we have is three hundred and twenty mills have come down since nine am yesterday. There have been one hundred and seventy one rescues, not just from the waters but from the people who are inside their homes. So eleven people being pulled out of the water and one hundred and seventy one people being pulled out of their homes. Now, a quick little update again before we start to have a look at the other issues that are.
Happening around the world.
Here are five things that you need to know about what is happening when it comes to this extropical cyclone tonight. The first is that flooding is the next big worry for Brisbane.
The expectation is is that.
With hundreds of mills that have flowed for a while, the problem is not going to be in the Brisbane River behind me. Instead it is in many many suburbs. More than one hundred roads are currently closed.
This event is filling, not over, for the rainfall will continue and the risk of ent tense rainfall with localized flash flooding is real.
Again, let me show you some data. You know how to into the data. I am and Jesus a lot when it comes to a weather event. These are the issues about rainfall. In the past little while. I've spoken about Harvey Bay. But right now now Brisbane, one hundred and eighty three mills, nearly one hundred mills fell in Brisbane in just two hours. That, by the way, is the equal of all of the rain that fell here in December up at Redcliffe one hundred and forty seven mills.
At Archerfil two hundred mills, down at cool and Gatta one hundred and twenty five mills. Over the border in Ballina it's been thirty eight and in Lizmore thirty seven that have fallen in the past couple of days. And as you can see you think you're about to stand in a nice dry spot, and then the rain starts to pull up. We'll hold on for as long as
possible without reaching for the rain jacket. The other thing is win and again you can see a little bit of it picking up, but that has caused its own troubles too.
Again worth having a.
Look here because you can see the types of damage that has taken place. Now I will probably tomorrow in chapter and verse have to set things right with those who have said this thing is not as big as expected, fizzer all the rest of it. Look, let's be very serious. Person died in northern New South Wales. People are being pulled out of the water or save from their homes in Harvey Bay. Hundreds of thousands of people don't have power.
I'm sorry if that's not enough for some people, but it is well and truly a very significant event that's been taking place here at Brisbane Airport this weekend. Ninety three k's an hour was as fast as it got at Redcliffe.
In the middle of last night.
It was one hundred and four kilometers ninety five k's on the Gold Coast and the latest number we had was seventy six k's an hour at Harvey Bay, but I think we're going to see something a little higher once more numbers come in eighty two kilometers an hour across at Cape Byron at Byron Bay. The third thing you need to know about what is happening as we speak in southeast Queensland, north northern New South Wales and everything that has been affected here is there is an awful lot of people who.
Still don't have power.
Now forty eight thousand people don't have any power as we go to war tonight.
In Brisbane, the most.
Affected suburbs Rochdale, Board, bald Hills and the Gap Meantime on the Gold Coast. Congratulations to the energet's workers because this has gone from close to two hundred thousand now down to eighty one thousand. Eight hundred homes in and around Madurabah, Nrang and Labrador are the areas that need the most work in the next little while. And again the crews that have been doing what they have doing. I've seen the volunteers when it comes to rural fire
service efforts. I've seen the volunteers when it comes to the State emergency Service. These people are twenty four to seven. They're focused on everything from a street lamp all the way through to a hospital unit blocks. They are working their backside off. The bloke who showed us around their operation is a blow called Paul, and we'll talk to him.
In a moment or two times.
We've got people haven't got power at home. We've got people who have moved home. We've got one fellow living with his mum again that's how he can come in and work. So it's absolutely extraordinary in what our people will do to make sure that they can come in and help the community.
I couldn't be proud of the effort that those people put in poor.
Alright in Queensland.
They are so committed to going outside that when they build even brand new unit blocks, you've got to have a balcady because even when you're inside, you want to be outside. And since Thursday there's been no school on Thursday and Friday. The news about whether school is back tomorrow, well it is literally school by school. The latest information that we have from the authorities here is that you've got to check a website that has now been updated.
In fact, the Premier has that message for you tonight.
I make the observation. Parents and school communities know their school and we're asking people to make sure that they stay safe. And if getting to school from your particular property isn't safe, well, of course, of course that's a decision that parents will make and they'll be supported in that, I can assure you. But where it's safe to do so, those schools will open.
So I've told you about the emergency in Harvey Bay. I've talked about the wind. I've talked about the power. I've talked about how much rain there is. I've talked about when it's time for kids to go back to school. So now I'm going to talk about the politicians bit mctanngue for days and days, but it's time now to pass a little review on the way some of them have been performing. Now, you know, I'm a fan of David Crucifully. I was as an opposition leader and I
cheered him in to become the premier. He has grown in stature during all of this. Calm, measured detailed up to date, not holding anything back, not being combative, not being dramatic, not trying to squeeze another press conference out of it. So everyone's sitting around COVID style. He has
done an excellent job. Again to those who say, well, it's not what we thought it would be, I repeat, you're talking about a storm that has gone from the Sunshine Coast to Coffsarbor in New South Wales, out to Woomba and Harvey Bay when it comes out to sea, and plenty of others. Another person who's done their state proud as the New Sowales.
Premier Chris Mins.
Now, he could have stayed in Sydney, he could have sent people to represent him, but no, as soon as he knew that there was a chance that Lismore could have a repeat of issues, Balliner could go down Grafton currently having a bit of a rough night tonight, potential issues, maybe south into Port Macquarie.
He has been here every stage of this.
He's brought with him statewide experts, local experts and will chat to him in a couple of minutes too.
I think it's been a privilege to be here amongst emergency service workers as well as the local community. Well, they're really tough, incredibly resilient people and they've been through Helen back over the last few years.
Now we've got to talk about federal politicians in natural disasters, they do have a role, but they should not have a front facing one where we've got to hear from them multiple times a day. The reality is is that when the information is as localized as I've been able to explain to you, politicians from Canberra doing briefings in Canberra, in my view, is about trying to keep themselves into the overall disaster new cycle, as opposed to filling any
information void that anyone else has. Now, the Prime Minister correctly went to liz More to be with the ADF, but that is a perfect use of his time. Parading around in emergency situations where federal authorities can tell us what state authorities can do to me is an obvious amount of look at me. The other one is a whole collection of local labor MPs who've been all over social media or pretending that they have some sort of official role in all of this.
But I want you to see this.
The one who thinks he's going to be the next Prime minister, Jim Chalmers. Now he yesterday was out in about, sorry this is today out in about and jesez he's got the orange jacket on now I don't know, and I believe he is not a member of the State Emergency Service. But geez, of all the colors to pick in the middle of an emergency, he picks the same color as that of the actual volunteers, the actual people helping,
the actual people who are making people's lives better. Now he'll hate that I'm saying it, but sorry, that's the reality of the situation. All right, That's the few things I wanted to talk about generally. But now let's get to another reality of the past few days. The Prime Minister for two years has been desperate to get some sort of a circuit breaker, desperate to get some sort of a topic change, something that would move him away from what feels like a sinking ship and going around
the gurglar. Well, the reality is just a couple of weeks ago, the polls were pretty clear, Doutton leading and Labor was on course for a defeat. So we were told the circuit breaker, the topic changer, would be the Reserve Bank and its latest decision when it to interest rates. As we told you then, despite the fact that many in the media were saying this was the game changer, we knew it wasn't because just like two little too
late tax cuts, it wasn't enough. So then we've had the ten day conversation about medicare, where he's trying to remind everyone of a campaign trick from three years ago, where he's holding up a dollar coin to make some points somewhere, and now he's trying to turn everyone's wallet into a reminder of a Labor Party campaign.
Well, we've got a poll after all of that started in.
The turnbul times the reserve bank rate was too late, as Albaneze's rating dips slips again. Now again I'm not being cynical. I'm just talking about the reality of somebody trying to dig themselves out of a hole, and they use any opportunity they can get. Has this weekend been a game changer? Has this weekend been the circuit breaker for some? Perhaps, but it is only going to be particularly localized for everyone watching outside of the region. I think many people are going to think there is no
great change. But the one big piece of news that we have not been able to talk about on the show thus far in any great detail, was the reality of this tropical Cyclone of all the things that have been disrupted the prime Minister's plans to call an election this weekend were the most disrupted politically.
Ex Tropical Cyclone Alfred's eminent impacts have reached the halls of Canberra, with the Prime Minister's plans to hold an April election now ruled out. The Albanesi government says its entire focus is on the emergency.
The ex tropical cyclone was renamed from Anthony to Alford to avoid any association with the Prime minister. Now he doesn't want to seem as though he's disassociating Anthony. Albanese is all too aware of the fierce backlash federal governments can cop for being too slow to act with an election looming. This disaster hasn't added political dimension.
Now what happens becare because this election has been delayed. It now goes into May. It will not be in April. There will be a budget, It'll be in just a couple of weeks time. Were they ready to actually do it? Are they going to have to cobble one together? What's the handout it's going to be? Remember we keep being told that revenue is a problem. At the moment, we know that there is a plan. Their own government's modeling for a budget deficit for the next forty years.
How will they.
Magically produce a set of numbers hoping to change their fortunes. Remember twelve months ago, two little too late tax cuts.
It didn't change the game.
There will be at least two more meetings of the Reserve Bank, one in April and one in May. Obviously, if it is the first week of May, it may well have a final jump into the campaign. But given all of the circumstances of the economy right now, I wouldn't betting the house on a reduction and how much it costs to pay off the house.
They're also they're now going to have another month to spend millions.
More of your taxpayers dollars on soft political advertising, which is clearly all about pumping up the government, pumping up labor, pumping up the Prime Minister. But it'll all be of course in information campaigns, and plenty more polls will either tell us that there has yet again not been the circuit breaker and the Prime Minister is in a scenario of hitting at the very least towards a minority and then potentially the Liberal.
Party being able to form that minority government.
Oh yeah, and if there's any problems with the economy between now and then, blame this weekend.
This will have an impact on the national economy, There's no question about that. Already it's having an impact. Businesses are closed, people are unable to go to work. The human impact is one thing. The environmental impact is significant, but the economic impact is as well.
Honestly, again, these are the times not for the leaders to be the commentators, but for the leaders to deliver the information. I've shown you the Liberal one in Queensland who's doing it well, the Labor one in while I was the.
One from Canberra.
Well, I'll talk about that with our mates Michael Kroger and CAUs Samaras a return to normal on a Sunday night when it comes to the state of the race. But one last thing about politics that cannot go unmentioned and cannot go past my eye, and I've got a second to mention it so I will remember this cringey stuff about people who were supporting Kamala Harris just before she lost.
Body.
Are why I make a big nice scene industry gonna be a big person.
Well on International Women's Day, these are the women of the Labor Party pulling a kamala. Well, I hope believe of the opposition is got a piece of paper and he is writing.
Out his resignation if he wants to know what misogyny.
Looks like in him in Australia. And he doesn't need emotion in the house represented he needs.
I'm a pass.
Okay, yet again the reframing of that moment, which remember, was in defense of Peter Slipper and what he had said about the female form. And you love how all of these things melt away from history. But you and I remember, right, let's talk about this incredible operation which has been people getting power back on grid. Now they were able to do it tens of thousands of people last night, huge wins through Brisbane meant that they took
one step forward, one step back. Well, twenty four hours later, tens of thousands of homes have come back on and that is because of an army, and there has been an army of people who have been working to put that stuff back together. The company is Energy X and Paul Jordan is its chief operating officer. I had a chance to talk to him at their Green Slopes depot a bit earlier today.
Well, Sydney had its volunteers.
In the year two thousand, plenty of people turned to the Rual Fire Service in times of fire.
I've got to say the people who have brought.
The most calm to people in Southeas Queens in the past few days have been the people working for The information that has been coming from Nijex is phenomenal.
Palls, the man who puts it all together. Thank you for seeing us here.
Oh, you're most welcome, Paul.
Whenever I saw a tree down and your crews start to roll in, I could see that people who had been tense all night started to relax because it was tangible help that we're starting to turn up. Give me an idea about the feelings inside your crew about not just bringing numbers down, but reconnecting people.
Yeah.
Look, absolutely so.
We've got about twelve hundred people ready to respond and who are responding in the southeast. We're bringing eight hundred in from the northern parts of the state, and each and every one of them is focused on community, what they can be doing to restore supply because as you well know, you know, electricity supplies core to everything we do,
so that's in their heart and mind. Our job is to make sure that we coordinate that that they stay safe and then we get that power back on the seat as we can.
So when we see the maps and we talk about hundreds of thousands of customers that don't have power, I can't even imagine how you start to triage that. Give me an idea about how you pick what and where.
So my emergency management team, they've been together since Thursday week ago and we've been tracking cyclone Alfred for that week and a half.
So we are well prepared.
So we track it, we overlay that on our assets and we get an estimate of Okay, what's this going to do? And we've got about three hundred and twenty odd thousand customers off of them, the biggest event that southeast of Queensland has seen. So we do things like we preposition generation. We get generators out there and ready to go and we're connecting them up yesterday and today as we speak. We preposition our troops from the north.
They've been around the Proofrey, Harvey Bay, Bunderberg, et cetera, et cetera, and we're making our plans. We create staging areas so you don't bring hundreds of people in without having accommodation, food, and all those sorts of logistics.
We've fueled up our trucks.
We've got fuel pods out there, so we're well drilled, well prepared. In fact, to be honest with you, I think we're probably the best disaster of sponse group going around.
I don't disagree.
I honestly, I've seen it with my own eyes. I've seen the comfort that it brings to people. But also the professionalism is that while we were getting.
Ready to talk to you, we saw all of your crews.
Having meetings inside before jumping into the trucks. And honestly, it was this military like operation of how much was happening. But what was pretty palpable was you've got men and women who want to get out there.
If they could do it twenty four to seven, they would.
You sometimes almost have to hold them back because they want to get into this.
They do, you know, that's in their fabric.
But in the large communities we've been, in our smaller communities, that's what we do, and we harness that we manage it. We actually do run twenty four to seven, twenty five crews going. Last night, we'll do the same again as such. Now the thing is we start to sent up our community engagement centers, so that's where we can give people
information about connections and reconnections. I have they've been flooded, et cetera, starlink for communications, places to charge their phones, their laptops, et cetera.
So we're starting to roll those out in the community shortly.
So I was mentioning before about the triaging of things. Obviously you have specialized crews for things like hospitals and key pieces of infrastructure. But obviously also as I saw it, you've got people door to door. You've got people working all ends of this thing. And that's what means that yesterday you're able to get tens of thousands back online because you're working all ends of this thing. It's not just from the center and work out, meaning the further out, the longer you got away.
That's absolutely case. So I'll give you example.
Yesterday we got on the Queensland Police barge and we have people out of the islands, so we're escaping on the islands. We've got generators already prepositioned. Soon as this weather lets us, we'll be back on the QPS barge.
Our own barges. We've got eight chop has read to go.
We can't fly in this obviously, but as soon as we can fly, we're ready and you're dead right, you know. We look at priorities around water, sewerage, hospitals, supermarkets, surveys, et cetera. So people can start to get their lives back on track.
Because that's the thing, even if your home mightn't be back the idea that you can go to the servo, go to the convenience store. And I've got to say as well, in terms of the things that you know, a couple of years ago, we had a conversation about.
Essential workers, those little.
Points of relief where you can get a bottle of water or something if you're running low.
A bag of ice, you know, all that sort of stuff. And we've learned that over time. So that's our generation strategy. Water sewerage, if we have to help the hospitals, et cetera, absolutely, But then those things that makes people's life start to turn again, you know, it is that that hot talk, the bag of ice, et cetera, gets some petrol. You know, So that's the sort of generation strategy. We're hooking that up as we speak as well as restoring the network, give.
Us an idea about the type of effort that your people are putting in. Are there particular stories that you get to hear back, what's touched.
You and made you proud of your team in all of this.
It's absolutely amazing.
At the muster of this morning, we've got people haven't got power at home. We've got people who have moved home. We've got one fellow living with his mum again that's how he can come in and work. So it's absolutely extraordinary in what our people will do to make sure that they can come in and help the community.
And that's right across the southeast.
So I couldn't be proud of the effort that those people put in.
Poll well as a visitor to this fine state, but a man who would love to work here and work here live here one day, thank you, because honestly, the relief you're bringing, the calmness, the approach, the professionalism, I've never seen anything like it, and I've seen plenty of my life.
Congratulations, You're ast welcome.
Thank you.
What a lovely bloke, what a well oiled machine. Congratulations to everyone who is doing what they are doing. Through tonight and for many days to come. If politics as you think, don't worry Sunday nights. We are back to normal tonight where we have a conversation about politics and the state of the race. But I wanted to check in with the New South Wales premiere Chris Mins. He
was in northern New South Wales just before sunset. We had the opportunity to have a conversation, including the fact that he's been around Lismore and how has the emotions been as things have looked like they were going to flood, not going to flood, and now attention moves to places like Grafton.
Yeah, I mean, look, I think it's been a privilege to be here amongst emergency service workers as well as the local community.
You know a lot of them, Paul.
They're really tough, incredibly resilient people and they've been through Helen back over the last few years. But in a funny ways, it's I guess it's fantastic to be around them because it does put your own your own problems in perspective and it makes you think, how you know, brasilient and tough these communities.
Are now we know in the north of New South Wales. Somebody died a couple of days ago. There's the situation involving the ADF where they revolved in the accident and everyone ended up going to hospital. But give me a sense again about the feeling. You're a person who is professional and understanding what people are thinking and feeling. Is the sense in liz Moore relief? A little bit more nervousness. How are they tonight?
Yeah, I mean it is easing, so I mean we've got to be really transparent with the public about the latest information. It is easing. The flooding on the Wilsons no longer expected to be major. It's now moderate, but that's still a lot. That means businesses are in undated and people are cut off from their communities. There's evacuation orders.
I don't know.
I mean my suspicion is that if you live in a town like Lismore, you're always under.
The pressure of.
Of potential flooding and that really makes them tough. I mean, they are a tough community, and I mean I like spending time in and around them because they're resilient. The other thing about the ADF, and it's a good point that you make a lot of young soldiers were involved in that car accident yesterday. There's twelve that are still in hospital, two in a serious condition. So the community is just full of gratitude for them. We really really
appreciate them being deployed. And I know there's been a bit of discussion about deploying the army during civil emergencies like this one. The bottom line, Paul is we need them, you know, we need them. They're fantastic. They do an incredible job. Army Corps of Engineers, the infantry that they deploy are incredible experienced soldiers.
They work across the board.
They never stop and if we do have major emergencies like you do in Australia, we just can't we can't turn off the ADF. I hope, I hope this experience doesn't change people's perspective on.
That one hundred percent.
You see these events are all hands on deck, and that means from the defense force to the volunteers, the people who are putting the power lines back up and the traffic controllers would stop go, the people working in service stations.
Everyone doing their bit.
Is not just all hands on deck, but it's all hands on deck doing everything together to make sure we get through this as well as possible.
Yeah, it seems to be that way.
I mean, we're not going to do a lap of honor while the rain's still falling and the rivers are full. But lots of emergency service and there's about three thousand SEES, volunteers and senior brass up here, a massive pre deployment. But that means you're talking literally thousands of people that have left their family, left their job, come up to the Northern Rivers to sleep on a floor or work
through the night to keep complete strangers safe. I mean, that's a fantastic organization and I know it copped a lot of grief after twenty twenty two. There was a report that said, you know, things needed to change. But the good news is I'm very happy to report things have changed and we've got some very dedicated, very brave individuals. I think the last count was forty seven flood rescues
in the last ninety six or so hours. So you know, it's difficult work, it's often dangerous, but we really we're very grateful that they're there.
I had a chance to talk to your queens Thane colleague, David cruci fully over the past couple of days, and I'm keen to give the people watching a bit of a scense of behind the scenes.
We will see the briefings, and no.
Doubt there's advice before those briefings. But you're in a situation where you're not standing in the capital of the state, a very populous important part. So is there some local command center or all of the information is being relayed to say a Sydney.
Headquarters, then it's interpreted and it comes back.
Give us an idea about that back and forth of information.
Yeah, No, Commissioner Wassing runs the SEES. They do that, or they've relocated to Homebush to do that where they can line up all of the agencies. This flooding event occurred right from the Queensland border all the way down to Port Macquarie. So we're obviously in liz Moore and the local community and the local SEES leadership, the senior brass look after this region. But the SEES has to
look for a stormfront that could radically change. For example, we're seeing rainfalls over the Great Dividing Range into communities in the north central part of the state, and if it happens in a number of hours. You can't just have all your resources deployed in one area, so they look after the state.
Stu Fisher looks.
After the situation here in the Northern Rivers. He's been fantastic. You would have seen him on the TV super just very to the point, very matter of fact, exactly what you need in a crisis, and we're lucky to have them now.
I know that Northern East of Wales is not through it yet, but I want to say what I've taken out of your time in there for the.
Past couple of days is that you haven't been jumping up all day every day in front of a camera. You are there to be with the people. And I think it's a really good reminder that.
Yes, the big population center is Sydney, a little bit in Newcastle, a little bit in Woollongong, and far less where you are, but New Soil is a big state. And I think the fact that you've been shouldered to shoulder with those people for the past few days is a real credit to you.
Premier.
Oh that's really sweet of you. I appreciate it. Thanks, Paul, have a good night.
We thank the premiers both in you sobs and Queensland and all of the people that have helped us behind the scenes to tell not just the latest information but the story behind.
What you've been watching for the past couple of days.
And as you may notice, it's starting to rain, so quick break back with hardcore politics and a jacket in.
A moment here of Paul Burray life from Bruceban. Thanks for watching, Welcome back to Bruceban.
Now ty to talk politics as always on a Sunday night, we do it in a thing we like to call the state of the race. All the data, all the insights, what's going to happen in the next week. Let's get into that chat right now with KOs Samaras from Redbridge, who's comfortably back at home, up for a quick little trip to Western Australia for.
The major labor blowout there, and.
Michael Kroger much warmer than I am right now, and who's in Melbourne.
All right, lads, love it at all. So because before.
I get into what Western Australia means in Poland, obviously I wouldn't imagine you haven't been calling too many people in the storm affected regions. But even when there's been a big news event, happening in one part of the country. Do you continue the operation everywhere else or is the assumption that distraction changes opinions.
You continue?
But there hasn't been much polling going on since this particular weather event, so I think, you know, once it's pretty clear that the Prime Minister was going to postpone and call an election. I think everyone's you know, research projects were put on hold and so yeah, we will resume our our key seat track in about a week or so. So yeah, it's it is a problem, particularly if you've got a whole entire state down. Yeah, polling's a bit you know, polling nationally is a bit risky.
All right, Michael, let's talk about the delaying in the election. Has the prime ministers done the right thing? Because yes, things are probably going to be better tomorrow and he would have still been had the opportunity to go and do it. But the delay means a budget. He's got to put that together with all of its goodies. But there's not a lot of money left in the bank. How do you feel now that both sides have got much more time before the election.
So Mata, I don't think he had any choice. Albanize did the right thing. I mean, all these people saying the storm is not as bad as it was predictable and ow please, it's like saying I knew Number four was going to win with you. I mean, yeah, we're all wiser after the event, but of course we have to make preparations. I mean, those absurd comments should be treated with the derision they deserve. And Easy did absolutely
the right thing delaying the election. We all know he was going tomorrow to the Government House to call the election for April twelve. He's done the right thing. Does it help him more harm him? I think it probably slightly harms him, but not to any great degree. Prime ministers who left elections to the end have tended not to do well as those who've been on the front foot and called it in their own timing, So it'll make a marginal difference, but not that much. The real
problem is the budget. I mean, he's never wanted to deliver a budget. I mean everyone knows that, and depending what the numbers are, that could really hurt him because if we're going to see you know well, and also deficits over one hundred billion.
Don't forget we've had a scenario where yeah, my apologies. I'm working off the reverse satellite here made apologies Internet as it is these days.
Because of course.
There hasn't been post budget bounces for this government, even with the tax stuff that was.
Released last year.
Yes they get a swirl of media, but again that swirl of media is normally the week leading up to whether it's all thrown out budget and reply by Thursday.
It doesn't work the way that it used to.
But let's get to Western Australia, because for the Peter Duntin to get even close, he needs to do better than one out of Western Australia. What were you able to see because obviously Labor thumped, the Liberals thumped, the Nationals blew away anyone but those three parties in the Lower House. But when you look inside the numbers, are there changes that the Liberal Party can build on or is Albow going to start to pook Wa in the bank?
I think he's pretty close to putting Wa in the bank, although the numbers between the State Labor brand and the federal or brand are different. So you know, I would say bullwinkles again for the coalition, and then it's a question of whether you know Dunton does better in a seat like Peers, for example, Labor's primary vote in some of those state seats like Butler and wann A Room for example, there are arewing Peers out of suburban North at a northern Perth close to fifty percent primary got.
So the labor brains very strong. And the other thing about I think most East Coast of strains don't understand about Perth is that it's going for a massive transformative period where you know, the places has completely changed, is completely almost say demographically unrecognizable now and it's labor that's actually been able to capitalize on that change.
So, Michael, obviously we know that there are people who like to have it one way in state politics, one way in federal but of course that's because they either think they balance each other out or you know, there might be a little bit of a warning when labor
in Western Australia has been so emphatically re elected. Yes, big swings against it, Smaller electorates means that smaller amounts of people, but still a few hundred this way, a couple of thousand that way, and you start to get what is an eighteen percent swing, but they still have to end up with forty plus seats again that factor in Western Australia.
Are you redoing some of the sums in your.
Head about whether the Dutton can get himself whether Peter Dutton can get himself to minority rather than an almost inevitable conversation of Labor.
Yeah.
Now, look, I've had a look at last night's results and I watched the coverage last night CAJU in the team of fabulous job that Tom Connell. How good is Tom Connell by the way, as a as analystis of the micros geares off the competition various seats. Boy, mate, there ain't anything There's never been anyone like Tom Connell. Let me tell you now, look, I haven't changed my view.
I think Dutton wins three in Western Australia. It's a bizarre election, mate, when your primary rate drops eighteen percent as Labours did, but its seen as a terrific result. It shows you how bad our result was last time, which it was. I think we'll win Tang the Bullwinkle and Curtain, as Chs says, I think bull Winkle got three point three is not going to be won by Labor. I don't think Tang will be won either, and I think Kurt, it's only one point six. I think that's going to be.
Lost to There is a massive.
Difference between a state labor government and a federal labor government. The State Labor Party have been very clever and they did this under McGown. They started this sort of you know, they developed this theme which has been running through Western Sorry ever since I've been a kid, which is the Canberra are the enemy. We'd be better off seceding from that mop over there. All I do is take our taxes. We don't get much back. They are waste of space.
So labor developed this sort of Western Australian first. If I can coin a phrase, aura, and it's working incredibly well for them. So I think there's a big difference federal state. I'd love to say we're going to win Piers, but Peers is nine percent, even though the state seats were bigger than that last night. Big difference between a federal swing of nine and a state election. So I still think it's three in Wa.
Because when you were giving some final thoughts, I noticed a few grim faces when you remind it many people the East Coast is a very different story.
Yeah, absolutely, there's completely a different world, so to speak. This is why I think it's important people to understand that when we're looking at Western Australia, it is absolutely a unique electoral landscape that cannot be applied to the East Coast. So you come over to the East Coast and it is a totally different picture for Labor, particularly in Victoria, and those numbers are not changed, you know. And this is the problem when you do, when you
just rely on national polls alone, you know. I think there was a pole from another company just over the last couple of days released where had label on fifty one colishing of forty nine. Others bounce around between forty nine and fifty one between the two major parties.
That's great.
What matters now is what's going to happen in use of Wells and Victoria. And yes, we can debate about how many seats they win in WA, but it's all going to be about how many seats does Labor whole losing Torrent and your subplas.
All right, boys, thank you very much, let's get together in person one day. I'll book the Peter Credlin studio for us. We'll turn up in Melbourne in a couple of weeks.
Look forward to seeing you then.
All right, quick break and back with more, including we're going to check in with Harvey Bay because that is the story when it comes to the weather situation here, a lot of people in trouble there and also what to expect from Jim Charmers third and maybe final budget. The sounds of chainsaws are here in Redcliffe as they are cleaning up the mess of last night's storm where the winds here were one hundred and five kilometers an hour.
This Morton Bay Pine one of many trees up and down the coast that have fallen over or.
Have been teetering for some period of time. Now. There has been a lot of rain.
In fact that Harvey Bay there has just in two hours more than one hundred mills. There have been hundreds of calls for help on the northern rivers.
In New South Wales.
And there's the flooding situation which will be the next couple of days. Worry in and around Bruceban. Why because there's going to be hundreds more of meals that's going to be falling.
We're expecting a more widespread impact right across the city. In this case, we're also expecting a lot of trees to be down as well, and power lines, and so the first thing that we tell people won't be to get out and to start cleaning up, It'll be to wait until it's safe, wait until the power lines have been made safe.
Now, everything from the paid to the volunteer services, these guys and girls have been going twenty four to seven on the behalf of the people who they are taking care of and those that are proud to see them work.
Thank you, because.
Australians are always tested in fire, in flood and in a tropical cyclone. And one thing you can always bet on is that if we can help, we do. Since we recorded that in Redcliffe just one of many suburbs going through the same thing in and around this part of Australia, Harvey Bay, well, as you know, things have gotten a whole lot worse and we're starting to get a picture today of exactly what has been going on.
They have copped two hundred and thirty mills they would normally receive about one hundred and thirty mills a month. From all of December January through to March, they've got a thousand calls for people wanting help for the SEES. The police commissioner is telling us that in that area, thirty five people, sorry, thirty five jobs, fourteen people their lives were saved by police and the fire crews.
They've given out one hundred and seventy one.
Rescue so lives have been saved, lives have been at risk, and George Seymour, as the Fraser Coast mayor who has this responsibility for this area, George has everything looking tonight because jeez, you've copped it today.
Good evening, Paul. Yes, it's been a very long and hectic day. We took in a lot of rain in our region this morning, which caused flash flooding right across the city of Harvey Bay. But I'm really really proud
of how the community responded. We had SEES, workers, are agon, police, foreign emergency services, everyone pitched in, and I'm really really pleased at the response because it was, as you can see in the images, a phenomenal amount of rain that fell in a very very short period of time this morning.
So in terms of the pre prep, obviously, as we were talking about with Energex, before.
Police were there, fieries.
Were there, was there a surge of support prior to today.
Well, we've been outside of the cyclone watch area for a few days now, so this was actually quite It was unexpected. This is unprecedented out of rain. We are, you know, well to the north of where the cyclone crossed, and we were outside of the severe warning area up until when it happened.
So I'm really really pleased to the.
Way everyone responded. We got the local disaster management group together, you know, early this morning, well before it was safe for our crews to go out and assess the conditions. So yeah, I'm really really proud of how everyone contributed from all the different teams today.
Yeah, the scramble, the scramble has absolutely saved lives.
There is some criticism of the Bureau.
I don't know whether you want to go there or not, but are you happy with the information the community had before it went to sleep last night.
I can't criticize the Bureau. They are an incredible team of you know, professionals who have assisted us throughout this time. I think what happened today was unprecedented and historic. The amount of what happened here, it couldn't have been anticipated.
Well, I appreciate the conversation Mayor all the best to your community.
We'll check in a couple of days time.
They've shown absolute strength and support for each other. That comes from locals who love each other, and I know that's how you feel as the local representative, really appreciate it.
We'll check in again shortly, all right.
Now, before we finish up tonight and we start our journey back towards the man cave.
Let's talk about a federal budget. Now.
If an election was to be called this weekend, there wouldn't be a federal budget. Instead, there is now going to be one because of the delay, and that is going to be handed down on March to twenty fifth. Warren Hogud is a man who knows the economics, personal finance, and has a curious eye like me when it comes to the way our federal finances are being run. Warren, lovely to see you, mate. They've now got to come
up with something now. The hope was that they would be able to skate their way with some sort of an economic update, but no, the full budget is to be released in the next couple of weeks.
How the hell are they going to do it? Yeah, get o, Paul.
It is going to be tricky. We only got the GDP numbers last week and normally they have until made to start recalibrating everything to those numbers, so it's a rush. But the problem the government's got is that this is going to be the budget they didn't want to have, and it's going to reveal deficit of maybe fifty billion dollars next year. It's going to reveal deficits all the
way through the hot years. It's going to reveal a record share of governments spending in our economy, and it's essentially going to highlight what this government's all about, which is big government and big taxation. They have increased the personal income tax burden on Australians by a phenomenal thirty percent at least in the last three years. So this is why they didn't want to have a budget. And I'm not sure how they're going to actually handle the narratives.
I'm sure they'll find a way, but I think the community understands what's happening.
They also know that many of the surpluses have built off things, you know, like excise tax. And we've talked before about the absurdity the bottle of Bundy Rum sixty three percent of that is tax. We know it when it comes to cigarettes and petrol and all sorts of things. I just love the Prime Minister wants a gold star because he's going to holt beer excise for two years when he's been more than happy to put it up for three years to get the numbers to a point
where he can say we've had our surpluses. We also know, as you say, the single biggest form of income to the federal government is personal tax, not company tax, not GST, not multinationals.
It's the average payers.
You go person, so again that revenue stream, and they're predicted when it came to the intergenerational report deficits for forty years, but being an election budget during the time of cost of living, a lot of people turn around and say, what's in it for me if they do find some way to extend this payment or double that payment that's on the credit card, isn't it?
Well, it is because the budget, as we knew from the midyear update, was in deficit. It's in deficit this year by at least thirty billion. And of course this record tax burden on everyone, whether it's excises or income tax, it's still not enough to cover the government spending which has.
Gone through the roof.
We haven't seen a shifting government spending like we have in the last eight years since the early nineteen seventies, and it's been a hallmark of our modern prosperity is
that governments in Australia were pretty disciplined. They tried not to get their finances too out of order, and I think that worries me, Paul, and why this election is so important is we are threatening the broader structures in our economy if we just grow the size of government and without care about what it means for the rest of us. Who knows what it could do. We're already seeing inflation, we're seeing businesses not able to get hold of staff. This could get even worse than the future.
So I think this is a really important election and this budget's going to highlight that issue that we've just really at the limits of big government, big taxation.
Well.
And also part of the strain that exists now is that it used to be that you got paid less to work in the public service because frankly, it was harder to sack them. There wasn't a productivity push on and there's not the risk that exists in the private sector. But now you've got a scenario where the public sector, the public servant is being paid more than people in the private sector, and you have the absurdity that the prime minister is paid half.
Of what the head of their department is paid.
Yeah, I mean, I'd probably like to see how politicians paid a little more. It might attract some better quality people into the game. But look, the point here is is that we look around the world in the last year and we've seen an unprecedented shift in voter support for government. According to some research out of the UK, every election last year for the first time in one hundred and twenty years, saw a swing against every government that went to the polls, and it was a supercycle.
Half the world voted last year. The common factor is growing size of government and cost of living. That's happening everywhere and that's bad news for our government because they're trying to pull a virtue of maintaining the economy's stability. I no recession, but dragging this cost of living crisis out.
And I think the politics of that are diabolical because when it comes to going into the ballot booth and voting what you care about is your standard a living, and if you've just paid to keep the economy out of recession according to the Treasurer, you might think twice about whether that's the right strategy.
Good on you, Warren, Thank you mate.
Look forward to seeing you across the station and doing your best work in the next few weeks.
Plenty to talk about. Thank you mate.
Do appreciate it. All right, that's our show from Brisbane. Thank you to everyone who's helped us over the past couple of days. A Nick with beautiful pictures, Madison with big ideas behind the scenes, Lucy back at HQU whipping us all into shape.
I do appreciate it.
Thank you to everyone who's come up and said gooda. We know the story isn't over, which is why we'll remain covering it. When it comes to news. We'll keep talking about it all this week on Paul Murray Life. Thank you so much for watching the Royal Reports standing by on Sky News.
See you from Brisbane.