From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thanks so much for watching. Welcome to a big Sunday night out of a massive week of Paul Murray Lives. We've got an awful lot happening in federal politics, state, local, the international stuff. But first, so many polls tonight and detail you haven't heard anywhere else. Our I'll made grim Jim the great passenger of the Australian economy. You see, there is a difference between a windsock and the pilot
of a plane. Which one would you actually give the trust over to? Probably not the wind sock, but that of course is grim Jim. He's the ones that will I feel your pain, a little bit up, a little bit down, but always I deserve congratulations. Last week the disgraceful display of trying to change the subject for their own failure as politicians and members and guardians of our own society when he was bashing away at the Reserve Bank. Now this worked with Philip Loow, it won't work a
second time around. Even the former Treasurer and old Grim Jim's former boss, Wayne Swan got in on it, and quite correctly, the odds referred to that as a coward punch to the RBA head. The RBA has been in the sights of the government because if there is a thirteenth interes straight rise, supposedly that will be the tipping point.
My belief is politically of cost of living matters. The twelfth, the eleventh, the tenth and ninth, the eighth have all put the Prime Minister and the Labor Party on very serious notice, if not right at the end of the plank. But this was the Labor Party trying to change the subject. Most of the media following along.
Are the combination of global economic uncertainty and higher interest rates is smashing household budgets and slowing our economy considerably.
Treasurer's comments were absolutely nothing new.
The Reserve Bank is putting economic dogma over rational economic decision making, hammering households, hammering mums and dads with rates, causing a collapse in spending and driving the economy backwards.
But God love Australia, God love the fellow normal people of this joint Because well, I don't know what's going to happen in an election. We needed to send a message, the message that we have been relentless about and at times feeling like a little bit of a loan soldier. Over the past two and a bit years, we knew about cost of living being major, and we knew that inflation was out of control. We knew inflation was out of control in part because of the actions of this government.
Well polar dropped tonight has shown that the majority of Australians blame the government and its treasure of Grimjim Chalmers, not the Reserve Bank. Have a look. This comes from the far right wing annals of the Channel nine newspapers. Fifty one percent of all voters say, in relation to the question of who do you think has greatest responsibility for ki inflation down? The government fifty one percent. For labor voters the majority of them, forty two percent say
the government. For Coalition voters the majority by a mile, sixty three percent say the government. For other voters everything from the touchy teals all the way through to One Nation and UAP and anything else in between. Forty eight percent uncommitted undecided voters again about fifty percent at forty nine and the seats that matter the most fifty percent.
You see one of the ways that we have slowly but surely sort of got to where we've got about how I do this show each and every night for you is, yes, we have to talk about the stuff that is obviously larger than news. Yes we have to point out some of the things that we think are examples of people pulling the wool over your eyes. And sometimes we're relentless on a particular topic because it feels like the topic that should be the total absolute ram
ram ram focus. Well, there's an entire industry of people who want to protect this government, protect its electoral chances, that want to change the subject. Now, obviously to people in the government want to change the subject, but it's incredible how many people in the media are more than happy to try to change the subject because they don't
experience the cost of living issues that you do. And even if they are feeling a little tougher than they did a little while ago, you couldn't possibly get rid of the greatest government of all time. I mean, after all, these were the people who almost sixty percent of Australians, according to a poll in the Sorry a Redbridge Pole My Apologies, said they couldn't name one thing this government has done to make their life better. Almost sixty percent
of people. Now, let's slow down, let's have a look at again more of these numbers, because again, all of this will be brushed away. There will be some dramatic change of the subject that'll happen between now and when the sun comes up. Will be I mean, I couldn't believe today. Oh there's an ad attacking Peter Dutton. Who cares? Who cares? That's the Labor Party trying to change the subject. And just on that nuclear thing. Oh, six hundred billion dollars.
This mob, according to the CSIRO, want to spend a trillion dollars on changing the power system. So just don't fall for it. Let the lefties do it, not us. All right, we continue when I say us, I'm in this program. Now, interesting here again about the cost of living low? Keeping cost of living low? You can tell I don't know my glasses. The Liberal Party leads the Labor Party by seven points. Now, remember what was the promise of the last election, I'll vote Labor everything goes down. Well,
now that's gone. It's how the Libs, who most people believe, in that situation. However, there's a significant number of undecided people. That's because they know that the Labor Party. So called solutions aren't good enough, but the Liberal Party has not put enough solutions on the table. They need to start doing it to actually convert people from sort of ah, yeah, I'm not all that into it, to actually fully making
the change and being willing to change the government. Now again, all the evidence is this is not a one term government, but it could be. It could be if some of these other numbers are true. When it comes to overall economic management, you can see thirty seven to twenty six, eleven point lead for the Liberals right now managing the finances of the government again, an eleven point lead of
a Liberal party over the Labor Party. Things had been cracking for a while, They have been crumbling for the past a little while, and im plice to say people are now willing to tell a polster, and that polster presumably will tell a politician. Meantime, of course, all of these poles and they've been relentless, and they've been this way since well kind of back half of last year for now like a full year. The government's been not
a great place when it comes to the polls. Billions of dollars that they have decided to take for me Australian Treasury, I e. Your tax dollars to turn around and buy campaign slogans going into an election. Well, the Prime Minister was at the mcg. He was there on Friday night as the Hawks we're playing the Western Bulldogs. Now he is despite the fact that he's from Sydney, in sort of inner Sydney. He ended up in the rooms in the sheds. He is apparently a hardcore Hawks fan.
But some people are calling them out and world done Brownie for doing it.
Well, because I feel like the Prime Minister this is for the good of himself going into the Hawthorn rooms. This sickens me.
Anthony alb He's had a look at the pole all over.
Peter Dunton is closing and he's in front. There's a gap. He feels like I need to look like a common man. I'm going to go into the Hawthorn rooms. Give it up elbow now AND's buying it now.
I don't know whether he's taking the pits or not. But the reality is this guy's desperate to be associated with anything, be more popular. You see, he used to think that people wanted to come to him. So I think you get a little bit of the gold dust off your shoulders. Now he's desperately please, may I have some more like oliver Us? Trying to get a bit of start us from anyone more popular than him. And again same pole. Channel nine newspapers, Channel nine TV network
have a look the Labour Party since the election. Their primary voters down five points. That's huge. That would mean that they are going to lose seats, and they would lose seats to the Greens. Now, it is important to note that the Liberal National Party yes way in front best part of what nine points, there's still a couple of points short of forty and that's where they can actually win an election, which is why we keep talking about a minority election so much at the moment. The
AFR they had another poll as well. This one was the Redbridge survey which appeared in the Financial Review. It says that it's going to again be a minority situation. But interestingly, how many times have we sat here gone through the polls together, taken the time to do so over many minutes? And the reason I do this is we're not just of bouncing through the headlines. We're not doing what they do on Twitter. Well, read the headline
and nothing. We're going to get into the detail. Get into it because I know you're interested, you can handle it, and I know you like it. Because when we have the information, we can win an argument. When you don't have the information, when you don't have the data, then you're not able to have even a lead to stand
on sometimes in an argument. Now again, the people who've said, oh, this is a one term government, I understand why they say, and I understand the hopeful thinking behind it, and wouldn't it be amazing. However, the reality of the Liberal Party getting to seventy six seats or even get into a position where they could start to form a minority government is unlikely if the Teals are all re elected. Now again, according to this pole, Now, this was a different pole.
This is not your classic sort of one thousand to fifteen hundred people. This was thousands of people and a whole bunch of other data like census data, ABS data, demographic data, population data, so all those people who moved from Victoria to southeast Queensland, all of that is part of their analysis. It's really interesting. These sorts of poles are used heavily in the United Kingdom and they're pretty
damn good. So let's have a look here. If an election was held now, the Coalition would win the seats of Gilmore and Patterson in New South Wales. They would win Lingiari that is the seat around Alice Springs in the Northern Territory Lions in Tasmania, meaning that they would have two of the seats there. They've already got Bass. They I think could also push on Braden, but anyway, they would also be competitive in the Teal seats of Goldstein.
Now I'm going to say I thought Zoey Daniel was not moving, but according to this sort of analysis, that's a chance, aren't they chance? And over in Western Australia the only teal they're curtain. In more detail, let's imagine their data is correct. We have an election seventy six seats to form a majority government. Anything less than that is the beginning of chaos. The lower the number is behind seventy six, the higher the sense of chaos, because the number of people you've got to go to on
the cross benches. The government would go from seventy eight seats down two sixty four. The Liberal Party would go substantially up to fifty three, but fifty three is still a long way away. To give you an idea of what might happen here, the Coalition could win two seats Taal seats in the inner city, three in the middle suburbs, three in the outer suburbs, two in provincial areas, and
one in rural areas. Now again you can see here the Labor may pick up an inner city seat may but other than that they lose in all of those other areas. This would be a major change. Now, the difference between that number of what sixty four seats and seventy six seats fifty five three and seventy six seats or sixty five seats sixty seven and sort of both of them were there As many as fourteen seats are considered too close to call. These include Casey, Bruce, McEwen,
Chisholm and Ryan in Brisbane, Tangy in Perth. Now, those would be mostly Labor seats that would end up going across to the coalition. However, however, before you start doing the numbers in your head, or if they can get to the same number as Labor, then well, of course the left wing teels are going to back Labor. They're not going to back the Libs. The Greens are going to back Labor, not the Libs, and presumably once the majority of the cross Bench starts to go in one direction,
that's how you end up with the chaos. Parliament led by the Prime Minister is sort of the court Jesta. Here Kauper on the North Coast currently a National seat, it could disappear and go either or most likely independent, some sort of version of in and around that part of the world. You could end up with some sort of independent candidate there who's not a teal, but it feeding in one sort of a roboak shot one. Also, we told you Danteen's seat because he's gone hard when
it comes to immigration. There is a chance that a male teal this time, but a teal wearing orange but still basically the same thing might be there. So all of is fascinating, absolutely fascinating what the details are. And just to round it out, despite the fact that these people have bullied the head of the Reserve Bank, despite the fact that if it was a liberal it would be called all sorts of sexist things. But because it's labor, oh,
they're just rubbish right. Inflation and Australia must be between two and three percent. In order for that to be the target range four all of the people started an eye the economists at both Treasury and the Reserve Banks. So that's where the sweet spot is for the Australian economy. We are close to four percent and we are three percent, which is why interest rates remain as high as they do with a chance of going even further above. That's
what we are facing right now. So again same Polster, but this time interpreted by are the News Limited papers over the weekend. Number one issue country mile cost of living, cost of living at sixty two percent, housing not even half of it the economy in general. Once you put those two together, well, of course that is the number one issue. Then healthcare, crime, climate change, all the money,
all the attention. Well, if the last election was the climate change election, this one's going to be the cost of living election. And if it is the cost election, there's a very good chance the government is about to get a size nine fair in the backside, definitely taking them out of a majority. Potentially maybe on a good day, something even worse than that. But it is not going to be a fun three years with the idiots in
charge of the asylum. You can decide whether that is the cross bench or the major Party that they will be propping up most likely with labor huge other issue that is playing right now. Many seats in Western Australia. Labor Party won four at the last election, a huge all four of those could end up tumbling as well as the Teal seat over one issue in particular. When we were in Wa last week, I had so many conversations about the government's decision to turn the tap off
on the live sheep industry. Now this industry, think about it. The people who breed the sheep, take care of the sheep, the vets that take care of them, the transporters, the people loading them onto the ships, the docks, the checkers, all of that. There's so many jobs associated with all
of this. Yet, because the Labor Party can never walk away from an idea if they have an idea, and it's a sticking bad idea like the live export ban that Julia Gillard put in place the day after animal rights footage was aired on the ABC, not about what was happening in Australia, but what was happening in Indonesia. Remember that entire industry bank turned off the entire north
of the country outraged. Well, they couldn't possibly repeat that because they're afraid of losing those seats in the Northern territory. Maths matters right now. But the assumption was, Oh, we're so amazing, We're signing the arms of former labor staffers to convince people that we're not changing the GST. So wa, it only cares about the GST. Well guess what. It also cares about this, and there is a huge effort
as we speak. There are trucks that are leaving Western Australia that will make it through South Australia, that'll come up through New South Wales and then bang into Canberra. They are planning to do so on Tuesday. To make it very clear how pissed off these people are. Tony Seabrook we spoke to him ahead of the Bush Summit in Port Headland last week. He's on the Pastoralists Association, one of the groups behind this, and if he's barking mad and annoyed about it, imagine what everyone else is.
But how articulate it is this bloke. If this bloke ever put his hand up to run for anything, I'd go and let a box for him. How good is this blow? I think they're going to be very, very worried. We know the seats, we know where the week spots are.
There's going to be a huge protest in Canberra on the tenth.
A lot of farmers West Australia going over there, a lot of sport maver East.
We are going to rock therebout well the tenth Tuesday, Tuesday in Canberra, there's going to be this huge protest. Now we've been talking about this issue for a long time. We've been talking Tony for a long time. Will again talk to some people in and around the rally as it makes its way to Canberra and then after what
takes place on Tuesday. But this thing is so big that even the person who represents the richest seat in Western Australia, a place that among others, takes in Coddoslow, the beautiful Cotdislow Beach, all of that area that's about what an hour above of Fremantle. This used to be July Bishop territory. Well, even the teal has turned around and changed her mind. She was with the ban the live export thing. She knows how full on this could be. So even the Teal changed her mind and backs people
like Tony. So I want you to go to a website, Keep the Sheep dot com a you Keep the Sheep dot com dot Au. When you get there, you will see a petition. Hit the button to take you to a petition for you to put your name your details in. There are eighty one thousand at least signatures. Let's get it to one hundred thousand tonight, Keep the Sheep dot com dot au. Do you believe the live sheep industry has improved itself from fifteen years ago? Hell? Yeah, I do.
Do you trust people like Tony about the welfare of the animals, Yes I do. Do you care about everyone along the production line here? Yes? I do? Then you go to Keep the Sheep dot com dot au. Keep the Sheep dot com dot au here is part of their social media feed. This is an excellent campaign being run beautifully. It's rare to see this stuff and it doesn't really matter with you're the center left, center right.
But they are coalescing around it, and this is as professional a job as I've ever seen a community group be able to pull up when you're pushing back against lefties. Keep the Sheep dot com dot Au. Now, Bruce and Denise Morcombe are beautiful people. They should have been the Australian of the Year. Instead, the committee decided, of course to make Jeffrey Rush the Australian.
Of the Year.
Well there's un Daniel, as we know, kidnapped, murdered. The search was horrific all those years ago. They have turned all of that heartache into going around schools providing kids with warning from about how to be safe. They also want a register publicly available of anyone who is a sex offender in Queensland today. The promise of the money, the promise of the establishment of it, came from the man who we fingers cross hope is the next Premier
of Queensland, David Cruci Foley. So if you care about this issue, you've got a side to pick now. This is about ensuring that parents are able to keep their children away from dangerous predators. Daniel's Law long overdue on its way in Queensland should there be a change of government around October now. Also, remember last week I told you about the scary number of people who end up
dying on the regional roads of Australia. Now again being incredibly honest with you, I'm not going to pretend that I haven't gone a little room on some of these roads. I'm not going to pretend that in all my life, I've never done something stupid on the road. Done plenty, right, But every now and then there is a particular accident, or there's a particular bit of detail or anything like that, and it reminds you that this is not a toy. You can hurt yourself, you can hurt other people. Of course,
you can kill yourself or other people as well. We told you that the shocking data that showed that it's very significant. In fact, more than half of all the people who die on the roads, they do so in regional areas. So people need to slow down, whether we like it or not, whether it's annoying because we can't get the thing up to top gear and we can't hear the room. We all get it right, slow down.
Bathist is a race run by other people, not by those of us trying to get too Bathists, all right, which is why, And you said Walsh, today is announced the their new way of trying to bring the road toll down. Yes, they'll make revenue out of it, No question is for average speed cameras. Now these are currently focused on trucks. They will now be turned onto cars. So imagine there's one town and two hundred k's up.
The other end of the road is another town, probably not two hundred k's but let's imagine liftgo on the other side of the Blue Mountains trying to make your way to Bathist to go and watch the Bathist races. Well, there's an average speed camera there that would be able
to work out. You go through it at this time, and you go through the second one at another time, and if it's anything over the one hundred and ten or the average time that's supposed to be there, then bang, you're going to get booked and you're going to get booked for speeding. I don't want to get book for speeding. I don't want you to get booked for speeding. So no one is warned, but you are going to get booked for speeding if you go too fast in between point A and point B.
The difference here between a mobile speed camera and an average speed camera is that as you're traveling over say fifteen or sixteen kilometers, they'll measure your speed over that period rather than simply at a point in time.
Now told you last week about all the places that are the concern right now in and around bushfires. Bushfire season apparently going to be a warm spring, the particular focus right western Victoria, Northern Territory, top half of Queensland. Now we know that as we move into summer, the potential places for bushfires, well, it's a lot of differ places. Now. Inevitably every bushfire is interpreted by the Prime Minister of the Greens Twitter, the ABC is everything's about climate change.
But the truth is that some of the intensity of these fires, once they are lit, happens to do with what's on the ground, the fuel that is on the ground. So before there is any major bush fire, before somebody turns around and says to say so is a denial of climate change. There is a report today that worries me. Just last week we had all of the different firebosses from the country gathering in Sydney. They did so to
talk about the preparedness for spring. One of the ways you can do that is to clear the crap off the ground. Hazard reduction, all right, I want to use all the other terms. Hazard reduction is the one they want us to use or use it over and over right. However, just forty five percent of the hazard reduction that was supposed to be done in the lead up to this fire season has not been done. That's Near South Wales.
The total hazard reduction burns by the Rual Fire Service for the period of July one last year to June thirty this year was one hundred and thirty nine thousand hectares. They were supposed to get on top of three hundred and thirteen thousand. Now they'll say there were days it was too windy here, there were days it was too wet, there were days that was too warm. Seriously, you know and I know that the amount that they strive for each and every year feels like it gets smaller and smaller.
So when they failed to live on even smaller targets as opposed to bigger targets because they didn't meet the one last year, you get my point. Hazard reduction so vitally important, but greenies hate it. And we all know who's sort of in charge of the general conversation. Last year, by the way, not the twur months just gone with the twelve months before that. In New South Wales, they completely just twenty eight, twenty eight percent of everything that
was supposed to be dealt with off the ground. Why do I talk about it because it matters, because it could be the difference between life and death for people. And yep, it means I'll make the same point over and over again until someone starts to listen. Now, this is the week that I think we are going to get our best indication yet about whom is not just going to be leading, but most likely going to win,
between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Why because the only debate is going to be taking place this week Now. I've been showing the bookies for a while. They showed Harris up, then they showed Trump up. Now they show basically even because they believe that Right now Trump is leading in Pennsylvania and Nevada, remember those seven key states. Well, he'll be able if he can win both of those, he wins the election. But see how tight that's starting to be. Now. The amount of money in this pool
is unbelievable. It's millions and millions and millions of dollars. So there's big fluctuations starting to happen. Also, I've heard of Nate Silver. Now that silver is a dater guy. He now works for himself. He used to work for thing called five thirty eight ABC News, Okay, that being ABC News in the United States. If you read, see or hear anyone saying that Trump is leading Harris by twenty points, they don't know what Nate Silver does. What
Nate Silver does is talk about probability of winning. Now, it could be winning by one or it could be winning by one hundred, but the point is right now he sees the race that Kamala Harris came back up to where Joe Biden was, which was still remember before
the debate, last debate, losing to Donald Trump. He believes that once you have a look at the polls, you have a look at the demographics, you kind of do all that stuff, similar to the polling I spoke about before, Trump would end up winning in Arizona, Nevada, he would win in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and a chance of taking out the two blue walls, which the book you
say Harris will win in Michigan and Wisconsin. But let's be clear, the debate, I believe is going to be a full court press of the media to say Harris has now finally hit the bar of being presidential. She has finally hit the bar of being ready to lead. Now we saw no convention bump. After all those people from Oprah to former presidents were saying she's the greatest, She's the greatest. The media going nothing happened, nothing happened.
I think you will see the media trying to immediately build the narrative from the second the debate is over, that not that she just didn't win, but she is now. She doesn't ever have to acknowledge him again. Vibes and push forward. Now again, we'll all see. If Trump is terrible, we'll talk about it, we'll show you the result. All of this happens Wednesday at eleven am Australi in Eastern time. Read a panicky and I will yes do the sort of political goggle box thing where we will sit back
and we will watch it for you. So if you want to see to see the two great mates who are obsessed with all of this stuff, giggle, laugh and poke fun at these people, we shall do. So. You'll see it at sky on news dot com dot a U high lots at our show Wednesday night. But as for what happened today to show their strength and power. Thousands of people turned up in one of those blue
Wall states, this one in Wisconsin. Again, Democrats supposed to be leading here, but as far as the eye could see, the crowd was there for Donald Trump, and he ripped in old school showing he's ready to go for this debate Wednesday morning Australian time, Tuesday night in the US. And if you can believe it, fifty nine days from now, we are going to win Wisconsin. We're going to defeat Comrade Kamala Harris, and we are going to win the
White House, that gorgeous, beautiful White House. We're going to win it. And we're going to turn this country around, because this country is a failing nation right now. It's a laughing stark all over the world. I love Comrade Kamala. Great, if that's the nickname. Let's lock it in. Let's see what happens.
Now.
You all know I want Trump to win. But I'm going to tell you the Details's going to tell you what's going to happen. I'm going to tell you why. You're you going to read all the headlines that have already decided before she's the debate that she's won the debate. As for Harris, she's doing debate PEP prep in Pennsylvania. Now that means when she's in between meetings she pops out and has these little pre arranged photo things. Why, because, of course the room's full of fans or fans know
she'll be here in an hour, they turn up. She doesn't get exposed to anything serious. It's all just people who love them, giggle and all the rest of it. And that lady you can see the older lady holding up her iPhone, Well, wasn't she buying right into the garbage that if Donald Trump gets elected the country will fall into a fire pit? Have look at this rubbish.
We're going to be fine.
We're going to be fine. We are all in this together, Yes we are.
We're gonna be fun, Yes we are.
But the giveaway as to why that wasn't quite the organic moment that you felt. Kamala Harris made an assumption that when you walk up to a person of a certain age, you're standing next to her person of a certain age, and they're hanging out on the weekend together.
They might know each other. But the reality was the old lady, demographically appropriate, was picked to be one of those people that were sort of percutchingly worried about Donald Trump, to be consoled by the empty pants suit the young gen Za again the future is female. Say they pick it all right, and the old lady forgot not to say that all of it was fake.
That's right.
This is a relative of yours.
Well, you go to a lawyer and it's here, and I don't work so much Sheffield.
Real people, real erosion, real emotions, but not a real moment. This was not just a random walking. It was a pre plan. There was a setup. You put all the demographically appropriate people together, you will assume that they're just randomly surging towards see how they do it. Plenty of that insight between now and election Day, and plenty of
the debate tonight on Ladies Night this Sunday evening. If you'd like to join us, feel free pollitt skuynews dot com dot au, pulitskynews dot com dot au, Keep the Sheep dot com dot Are you registered? Register? Register? I'm going to double check. End of the show. I wanted one hundred thousand. Let's go. Thank you very much for watching.
We are hearing conversation with none other than the wonderful Linda Scott about to finish up her time on the City of Sydney Council and her time advocating for local government at a national cabinet. She might be slightly excited couple weeks ago. CHRISTI Mxsweening, of course, are different from the pr Council. She's joining us now as well. Hello,
my dear friend. So I'm gonna start with you first, Christy, what did you find most interesting about all of that scroll of polling that we talked about before that has got been there is Look, lots of parts to minority government, not a lot of parts to government for the coalition, But jeez, issue after issue, sentiment after sendiment. Albo is in a world of trouble and he's already spent billions of dollars to get to this point.
Look, momentum is a funny thing in politics, and I think the polling is sort of bang on where it says fourteen seats are too close to call a too close to see a projection this far out. I think that there is a chance of the Liberals winning back some of the till seats. It won't be all of them. And I think there's certainly truth and it does align to the strategy that the coalition is progressing win back those outer suburban seats on the fringes of our capital cities.
I will also say this too, there's a lot of chat from the East Coast political media because of course that is where the media is. I will predict right here and now that I think they're going to have to learn about Western Australia pretty quickly. We're going to go full term to an election after the March eighth state election. In Western Australia. There are four seats there in WA that Labor hasn't won since they won the first time in two thousand and seven, and they didn't
win them again until two thousand and twenty two. At least three of them look very shaky and I wouldn't go to an election if I was Labor until I could overlay those state election results to see how far the gloss is coming off Labor. With four seats there in Western Australia, it's going to be a daylight savings election. East Coast media, You're going to have three hours to wait so called minority or win or lost, and you better learn about WA.
See it's a bit like the American election too. People are gonna have to work out Nevada, right, You've got to go basically all the way out to California time, middle of the middle of the night. In the US, I think it'll be the same here. Interestingly, look my sense of Western Australian being there last week, and again I'm not going to pretend to sort of know it inside and out as if I'm living there, but things are pretty good there in terms of the local economy, right.
I think there's definitely a stench around the Prime minister. Differently a stench around labor. Whether that's again interrelated with the state party. Well, again, that's the issue with Queensland. We'll all find out together what frightened in the most about all of those poles, because jeez, as a labor person, you okay, we're probably going to be get minority, but what was the thing where you went? Okay?
Look, I think Anthony Albanezi is still clearly preferred leader and he is still polling when you look at after preferences to be able to be likely to form government more likely than Peter Dunton. There's no doubt though that cost of being pressures are really you know, hitting people's households, and that's front of mind for very sensible reasons. I do want to say this though, the opposition of released two big policies, and both of them, now we've got
the evidence, will actually hurt cost of living. Right, So the drawdown super policy, particularly for young people, likely to drive up house prices, but makes people choose between a healthy retirement and a house like that's just done reasonable. Most adult Australians don't have to choose about that, why
I should young Australians. And the second one is about the cost of nuclear power, right, not putting aside the fact that they've said they want to have a power plant in Muscle Brook in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales. We've just had a massive earthquake there this weekend. So I do think Peter Dutton is not playing this very well like he might be polling okay because Australian's
hip pockets are hurting. But his two main policies that he is announced are going to make cost of living worse and as the election gets closer, people start to pay attention to.
That or so Christy the question I do have to say, is Labor down down five points in the election, Libs are only up one, so they're spreading kind of everywhere else. And then the preference question matters. As I've said a lot. I'm mean, I've said it. I remember you know how many times in the twenty nineteen election, right, what you do with number two will determine who becomes the government?
All right? If bugging them all or Labour's going to get back in all right, If you show the same preference discipline on the right with one Nation, UAP, libertarian all the rest of it, then twenty nineteen might happen again. But again, Christy to that question of what the opposition has to do. We know the disillusionment with the government, but how do you turn them into the supporters of the alternative?
Well, there's my new show in this, Paul, with you mentioning preferences. Right, I think we're going to have a position and the Greens have said the gloves are off, we're going after your seats. Lab but they're polling fifty percent in seats like McNamara and Wheels. They can win it out right. They've also got a very high vote in seats like Perth. In Western Australia, that's another one to watch. The Liberals also have a high vote too, but the Labor can't win it without the Greens preferences.
So Greens preferences of the twenty twenty two election were twelve percent nationally. Of course so were higher in some electorates, but the national vote was twelve percent. Is tracking upwards. So with the Grands saying to Labor, we're going to not preference you in some of these seats, and I think they're going to go up to about ten seats and some of those will be a two term strategy
that they think they can win. Freemantle in Western Australia is another risk of the Greens taking away their preferences. For Josh Wilson, that's why Alberneze has made him a junior minister to fight the election and give him resources. So with we just don't know what the Grains are going to do with their preferences. So the coalition's job from now on is to drive that wedge between labor and the grains and get the Greens to take away those preferences in more and more labor states.
Yeah, I mean, obviously you can produce a how to vote card saying you do whatever you want with your preferences as long as you go here and finish out the things you can't run a just vote one strategy, but obviously not going to end up preferencing the Libs. But it is going to be fascinating again in relation to the ta or game, the Greens are going to go about that.
I mean, I think again we're freemantle.
They're going to go, you know what, we think you should vote the leaders Green vote.
New South Wales like government elections this coming Saturday, and it is people are going to be looking very closely at the Greens and how they preference across the one hundred and twenty eight so that they're running in more spaces. They're very ambitious and they think they're going to take some councils. So I think it is Christy is absolutely right to say that the Greens are I think threatening and possibly likely to preference the Libs above Labor in
a range of federal seats. They're very ambitious, they've got their own agenda, it's very separate from Labors, and I think it will be really important to watch how they preference and whether they'll be able to keep those sort of core environmental people and match them up with their other base, you know, particularly people who don't believe in vaccinations. You know, they've got an unusual base, the Greens, and how they sort of tie them all together and then preference.
It's a tough job for them, but they're polling very well all right now.
I can't believe that an issue we all thought had kind of been resolved or at least was sort of part of the mix two years ago, which was what questions will be asked with the senses that the governments sort have reopened in the past two weeks and like all the sort of the snakes jumping out and they've just gone everywhere. Right now. I've made this very clear last week. Right, this is not advocacy. It's just I'm a data guy. Right now, I'm a dumb data guy.
But still I want to know what's going on. So you should ask questions of every possible persuasion right now. Yes, you may feel a little confronting when you turn it and see gender and it's not two options. You may feel a little when it's sexually okay, right, I understand
all that, But the senses. It's just about knowing how many people I hear true information about where they are, everything from homelessness to mansions from again men women and yes, this is a population of people who don't identify as both identify as one. Okay, it's going to be a small number, but knowing it's not going to kill anyone. But for some reason the government said, oh, we're not going to do this because we've got to open up division where who was going to blow up about this?
All right? And remember most people do the census online, so it's not like, oh, imagine someone sending you twenty eight pages is not going to happen much. People do it online now, all right, Now we learn today Jim Chalmers, desperately trying to put it all back in the horse after letting it out of the horse for no reason whatsoever, announced that what we all thought was going to happen two weeks ago will actually now still be happening.
Be in the next census questions on both sexual preference and gender identity. There will, David, we'll be adding a new topic which covers both sexual orientation and gender. That'll be the first time in the twenty twenty six census. You know we have listened to the community.
If you listened, you wouldn't have even started this process. But anyway, again, Christy, most people watching don't care for the people who do find something about this offensive. I'm not trying to be antagonistic. I'm just saying the reason you ask is to have an accurate picture of Australia.
Look, it's the national document. I don't mind having that data. What's wrong with having as much data as possible so we can define outcomes and that can feed into various policy platforms. The reality is, I mean, particularly I live here in Victoria. Despite being a proud West Australian. Somebody says to me, there's a lot of you in proud Rests Starlings.
None of you want to live there.
So I'm here in Melbourne and the reality is in Victoria. If you fill out any government form whatsoever, it asks you what your sexual orientation is and whether your male female non binary. That's okay. That started collecting. I think this is a way to have that at a national level. A lot of the states do it for various documents, certainly in health collection data. But what make it a huge issue the cynic in me says the government just wanted to either ignore it because they are wary of
the polls. They think it might be something that might offend out a suburban, more traditional labor voters versus inner grains voters. I don't know what they overthought in terms of this one all.
Too clever by half right. I'll tell you what they were most worried about in a second. But Linda first, right, how did this day two weeks? Wasn't this some promise somewhere down the back of the bus in and around the last election campaign? We just need data and who is the conservative group that's been screaming it no? What? Look?
I think it is welcome that the census is going to include questions about the LGBT IQ plus community. It's important that we get that information. This does have to go through the Parliament though, and so let's be clear. It will be a test for Peter dutn't it will be a test for the Greens, who've already given some signals that they want to vote against this legislation. I agree, Paul,
it's pretty straightforward, clear legislation. You know, we should be listening to the National Statistician and getting these questions into the senses. That's a welcome move. I certainly hope that people don't play politics with the legislation and that they just ticket on through efficiently when Parliament is sitting hopefully this week, and we can all just move on with what is a really important statist you call document for Australia's Look.
I'll tell you where the worry is going to be here, which is when you fill it out. It's fine for you know, adult one, adult two. Then you get to child one, child too. Right. If the question once you hit child gives you that option, people are going to find a way to be annoyed about it. Right again, you know my thing, which is to leave the kids alone. But if there is a very small subset of subset of subset of subset of subset of somebody who wants to fill that out, then it doesn't change any of
our lives. Right. If it's pushed on them, fine, I'll be the first to be ripping in if there's you know, some sort of safe schools program in inner city Victoria that's telling the kids how to answer. But otherwise it's just a data exercise. Let's see what happens this week in Parliament. Quick break back with more. We'll talk about the Harris and Trump debate and where to from here. There's also a massive and I mean massive news story that's just happen in and around that and polling coming
from New York point a set. Thank you very much for watching. Don't forget to rule a report a couple of minutes from now, And as always, you canet whole outs of the show, podcast and all that business at Skyties dot com dot you keep the Sheep dot com dot au. I think we've got the best part of ten thousand numbers for that petition. Make sure you hit
it before we're done tonight. So, Linda Scott, Christy McSweeney, the Trump Harris debate, I think whatever happens in that hour is probably going to be the bit that will push it just in this direction or just in that direction, and then basically nothing will be able to change it from that point. Now, of course, we don't know media rights and heart attacks and god forbid, right, but we don't know that New York Times has just dropped in an opinion poll though, and it says Trump nationally is
up by one point forty eight to forty seven. Interestingly, sixty percent of the country say it's hit it in the wrong direction. Fifty three percent of women say they're going to vote Harris sent of men, so they're going to vote Trump. So the debate you're obviously going to be cheering on for sort of the Kamala swing. If you could give her the free advice of how to win. What is the free advice that? What's the thing you
want to see? Do you want to see him sort of crumble in, not knowing how to antswer, melting like the wicked witch of the West, or her going excuse me, excuse me, what do you want to see?
Look, I think nobody can control what Donald Trump's going to do with this debate, not even his own team, right. This is why they've gone for the format where they can sort of mute the microphones. I was joking with my teenager son the other day and saying, oh, you know, debates don't matter that much, and he went, well, they did for Biden.
I was like, you know, I.
Defer to the wisdom of my children. So look, I do think the debate will matter, and I do think a lot of Americans will be tuning in and will it determine whether or not they'll vote for you know, Alb, maybe not. Will it determine, though I've talked to you about this before. Will it determine whether they turn out to vote or not? I reckon yes. This is a big motivator for how well you candidate performs, whether you
get momentum in these final few weeks. Ballot papers go out this Friday, you know, this is really on their doorsteps, and Americans will tune in, make a decision about whether or not to vote, and then that will carry So I think this is going to be a critical debate for Harris. She's got to perform well. She's got to get those clear messages across about how she'll make a difference, and the.
Media will define that she's done all of those things even before we begin. And of course we'll do the gogglebot political goggle box thing here again. I'll show the highlights Wednesday night. Christy, you've got less than a minute here, but give me a sense of what you want to see out of this.
Well, I have to go to Parliament and watch our own debate, laters, so I'll be watching that one as well in the background. Look, she has really struggled to stop waffling. People are making fun of the Democrats trying to win on the vibe, and I think that's true. I think she really needs to start speeding in soundbites around policy and around direction and around delivering and less waffle and Donald Trump he needs a lot less waffle toe.
It's a battle of wafflers at this debate. I think they both need to be strong.
My sense is he doesn't have to swing for what he seems to be the knockout blow, all right, because by struggling and missing and struggling and missing and struggling and missing, the perception of the hour is going to be he was trying to knock her out and she won because she survived. No, No, enjoy the discipline of the microphones being on and off. Answer the question that's there or not, because right now, going into it, if he's in front, he's the one with more to lose.
Meaning you shrink yourself into a ball, make your way through the hour, and then push home whatever lead you've already got, and don't fall into the moments. But free advice, see what happens. Thank you Linda, Thank you Christy. We'll see you again. Next week. That's our show for tonight Tuddah