Paul Murray Live | 7 April

and across the country. And it starts tonight when we have a chat a little later on Paul Murray Life.

see all of that play out tomorrow night. The full postgame analysis Chris Kenny, Laura Jays, myself and plenty of others. Then Jim Chalmers versus Angus Taylor in prime time of course, when the world economy is where it is, the two blokes who would have responsibility for the Australian portion of it. And then Blackout Bowen versus Ted O'Brien about the future of our energy market. That is just the start. And let me throw a fourth thing on top of this,

and it's the start of next week. I love a pub test, and this time next week we will be doing a pub test in one of my favorite places in Australia, Tweedheads, and it is the Mavericks. Already locked in. Is paul Ene Hanson, already locked in? Is tonight's guest Senator Matt Canavan. There will be more that we will be adding to the list. But here's the deal. If you have a question and you would like to be

at this part test next Monday. Tweetheads about the lockin Avenue in the next probably hour or so, so we'll get back to you about all of that. But tweeedtheads next week. Pubtest at sky news dot com dot are you first hundred people into the room of the people who get the seats. If I can get more than one hundred seats, we'll have more than one hundred opportunities. But what's your question? What do you want to ask Pauline Hanson? What do you want to ask Matt Kenneman?

What do you want to ask people who want to shake the joint up a little bit? No question is off limits. Whatever you want to ask, Let's send the email right now. Pup test at sky news dot com dot are you get yourself to tweettheads next Monday. Cannot wait, Leaders, treasurers, the energy market and the mavericks. It all happens here every day, from the start of the day with Pete to the end of the night with reader and all

in between. We are all across this election and it gets even more serious from here because there are just twenty six days to go in this federal election. There are just two weeks until the first votes are cast now. The electoral role closed an hour ago, meaning if you are not enrolled to vote, you will not be able

to vote. If you are somebody who has not updated where you live and your details again, you will not be able to vote where you live now, so double check all of that stuff, but it is all locked. In the next couple of days, I'll get the chance

to actually have a look at the electoral role. It will literally tell me how many people perceive, how many are eighteen to twenty four, how many a fifty plus, how many a male, how many a female, all of this data and it helps us start to work out perhaps where things go once you start to marry them.

On top of the electoral role. But today, under the cover of a backflip, under the distraction of newspot, finally the most unpopular premiere in the country appeared with a prime minister who until recently had what sixty percent of people now it's still above fifty sixty percent of people saying he was doing a poor or very poor job. And it was just as awkward as you think, Natalie.

As for the reduction of the public service, it won't be anyone who is currently employed. Instead it'll be they won't be replaced over the next five years. That doesn't apply to anyone who is on the front line. But big changes today for Peter Dutton.

just fist bump with the Prime Minister. This couple of weeks is going to be important because clearly the people who love to cover politics they want to tighter race. So maybe that's why the questions were slightly different, but they were surprisingly kind of hard today for the PM.

to the pole that will drop in Victoria. Depending on the mistakes that Allen makes between now and the election, that could get worse. Of course, if they're able to somehow throw away the key, well they might do a little better in the next couple of days. But there are big problems for the Labour Party in Victoria. Because Samaris used to work for the Labor Party. He's telling us and anyone who'll listen, you can see things nationally.

But everything is of course one hundred and fifty one separate races, and there are state races within state races, so the power of the LNP. They're high vote in Queensland, the Labor Parties low vote right now, when it comes to Victoria, lots of seats in those more populous areas, so no offense to the less populated areas. But even if it's just one or two that change, that's not going to be enough really to change the color of the country. But it may well be the case when

it comes to Victoria. As for Peter Dutton, relax, he still copped a tough time today. Of course he was always going to performing the backflip that he did when he did. But here are some of the questions, including one that he's answered I think a thousand times, but ask it anyway conveniently.

put on many countries, including Australia ten percent. Now remember this is ten percent on five percent of our exports. But some people will carry on like the skuy is about to fall in. It's not a good eye. I don't support it, but let's also not pretend that the world is about to end. That said, labor, of course, desperately want to run against Trump. They want to run it into this the second week, and they're trying as many times as possible to say it directly or euphemistically.

grim gym day, not a happy Jim day. Because you know, he's the steady pair of hands that has seen interest rates go up twelve times on his watch, the steady hand that has increased taxes, the steady hand that is now getting ready for at least a trillion dollars worth a debt and budget deficits for the next forty years. But now is the time when things are about to get rough.

recession is beginning. It is being discussed as we speak in the United States, and I have more to say about their markets in a moment. But Grimjim is standing there saying I got you through the tough times of the past three years, but I don't know if I can defend you against the tough times that are on our way. All of course, because of the Orange Man, who's bad because he put a ten percent tariff on five percent of our.

in fifteen months is garbage. People are still feeling tremendous pain from twelve interstrate rises and one ever so slight reduction tens of thousands of dollars families have had to find. So if this bloke's going to go out and say, well, you know, show working, we're going to see interest rates come down four times, now, why is he able to

say that? Of course, the Reserve Bank is entirely independent, apart from the fact that the way it makes decisions now is off a panel that is handpicked by the Treasurer to help make the decisions rather than just the current board and with the greater importance on the role of the Reserve Bank chief. So watch this the next

time you hear four interst rate reductions. Firstly, giant maybe. Secondly, this is from the bloke who told you that your power bill would go down by two hundred and seventy five dollars, but of course that didn't count because the modeling wasn't correct. So what happens if interest rates don't go down? By four times this year. Oh well, sorry, the modeling didn't work. But of course it doesn't matter.

All of it like it was back then, is to survive the four five week campaigns, or in Malcolm Turmple case, the eight week campaign. What an electoral genius he was. So don't be swayed. But watch for this that the Australian economy is going to be ruined because of Donald Trump. The Australian economy will simultaneously be so bad that the good news is that there might be a drop in interest rates four times. Now, as a person trying to

pay off a house, great, drop it eight times. Let's drop the full twelve and go back to where we were under the previous government. Amazing. Now, I'm not going to be trying to artificially keep these things up for any other reason other than with what the Reserve Bank may or may not choose to do. But a very

not so subtle sleight of hand. But let's just take a second here to again just burst the bubble, to push back a little bit on the BS, because you are on the front lines of this election, regardless of what the polls say or the book you say. Just as I said, to you every single night of the twenty nineteen election. Nothing is inevitable. Nothing is inevitable about

this election. Again, on all of the cat's whiskers, it says that Labor is getting slightly stronger, the coalition slightly weaker, and fifty one forty nine has now become forty nine. The other way, this thing is still raiser tight. Not a single person has voted yet. So how we all feel about the fundamentals of the past three years is going to matter. I give you the data, I give you the information. I show you the data. You've got

to have the conversations. You've got to talk to your kids, your workmates, the person down the club, ask them about whether they feel they're better off than three years ago, and don't let them get distracted by garbage like oh but if I heard the Treasury say four interests, right, because that's the thing people are busy. Remind them that that is just made up by the same bloke who told them that their power bills would go down by

two hundred and seventy five dollars. But let's talk about Jim Charmers and where he has taken the Australian economy. When he sits there, he has put together a budget that just what a couple of weeks ago was being delivered. In that budget, this bloke wanted to hide that what he used to say was Liberal Party debt is now

Labor Party debt. One trillion dollars becomes one point one trillion dollars and not even in the same decade as the Brisbane Olympics, we hit one point two trillion dollars debt. So if this mob gets re elected this year, one trillion the year after we go into the next election. Believe it or not, you look at this at one point one or even one point two trillion dollars debt.

And that's because under his leadership the economy which had an opportunity to have massive amounts of money that we could go and put into say things like structure, like

rebuilding every hospital in Australia. Instead no buy off here, buy off there, create fake headlines that would fiddle with the inflation numbers and pretend the twenty five dollars a month for the biggest dimensions to the smallest of country shacks is somehow delivering on their failed promise, their lie at the last election of about two hundred and seventy five dollars when it comes to power bills. That means that we are not in a budget deficit for the

next year or two years or three. According to the detailed documents of the budget papers, it's a decade of deficits that we are now staring down, where the government will spend more money than it brings in, and it will be bringing in record amounts of money. They will in total take that debt from this year nine hundred billion to the next financial year one trillion, one point

one and one point two trillion dollars. And that's because they spend more than the money coming in, and that could be one hundred billion dollars of books that are grossly imbalanced. And every single dollar of every single year's budget deficit is added to the many many before all of the ones post Howard, all of that money is added and added and added and added and added, and that's how you get to one point two trillion dollars

of debt on this government's watch. Now. Of course, Charmers has been the person putting together the budget for the past a few years, has been very focused on the political issues. But while the details this year was a decade worth of deficits. This bike also released in twenty twenty three, the Intergenerational Report. I talk about this every

few nights because I want you to remember. This is basically the predictions of where our economy will be, where our society will go over the next day forty years. And I show you the chart that is in this document, prepared by the same people who prepare the budget. There will be a budget deficit every single year for the twenty twenties, the twenty thirties, twenty forties, the twenty fifties and all the way at this stage to twenty sixty three,

which is forty years from when these predictions were being made. Now, this is despite the fact that the Australian population will very close to double in that period of time. In fact, the same documents they try to hide this number, so I find a cleaner graphic to tell you about this. So Australia's population, now, what about twenty seven twenty eight million by the twenty sixties. Get ready for forty four million people to live in Australia. An extra what twenty

odd million people that will be in Australia. Yes, born here, but majority brought here over the next forty years, yet still the government will be spending more money that it is getting, even when you add an extra twenty billions, sorry,

twenty million people to the plan. And while Jim Chalmers would love you to believe that the reason we're going to have deficits for the next ten years is because of Donald Trump, or for the next forty years because of Donald Trump and tariff policy, just a reminder, where was Donald Trump? And I'm not joking the exact date that the Intergenerational Report was released, he was in a Georgia prison where he was fodo was being taken for

that world famous mugshot. When this report was being released, Donald Trump was on a path to the rest of his life in jail. As a result of that behavior, he got stronger. He of course ended up winning the nomination and became the president. And by the way, just a love a little reminder, somebody spotted a little detail about that mug shot, which was on T shirts and all the rest of it, just as a daily reminder about how far his return to politics has been just

outside the Oval office. Egalized people, egoloid people have worked out that the mugshot hangs just outside the entrance to the Oval office, a daily, hourly, minute by minute, constant reminder of where we were. So for Jim Chalmers to pretend that everything is to blame with Trump. But don't worry. If I just say four interestraight cuts, you won't remember

everything bad Trump's fault, everything good government management. But government management is not just a decade but budget deficits, with all of those deficits adding to the already one point two trillion dollars of debt in his own budget papers, not made up by writing thing tank his own budget papers.

And the same people who say that debt hits on his watch at trillion dollars this year one point two in and around the next election are the ones telling us budget deficits have tens of billions of dollars, yet the Australian population surges by close to twenty million people. At the heart of the way the Labor Party has designed our finances is this problem. Do not fall for

the distraction of the day. Do not fall for the same people who lied to you about power prices lying to you about interest rate cuts when on their watch interest rates went up twelve times, when it happened during the last federal election campaign. It was an indication, as Jim Chalmers said, of a cost of living crisis and

a reason to get rid of the Liberal Party. Well, I say, twelve interest rate rises on top of that, even when the one reduction is still the reason to get rid of this Labor Party and the bloke who believes that in exchange for his bad deeds he will ascend to the prime ministership in the next three years. Or you can send a message and you can stop it. Forget the piles, forget the bookies. That is the closest science can tell us about what is going to happen.

But nothing is inevitable in this election. Watch the shows, share the videos, read the articles at skynews dot com Dot are you ask people if they've started to think about the election, and if that comes down to I like that one but I don't like the other one, say hey, on Hall, over the past three years better or worse, would you trust the same people who've made it worse over the past three years with a global economy that may well get even worse in the next

three years. Yeah, the answer is obvious. No. As for the stock exchange, now I'm going to venture into some dangerous territory here, and eat heads are going to start screaming at me. But I'm going to use a word called perspective. Now again for the four hundred and eighty eighth time. I have to say this each and every time because there are bad actors out there in social media or other people in the media who want to

clap back at me because I criticize them. That's the way it works, which is that I don't support the tariffs. Australia's exposure to it is five percent of our exports, ten percent of the five percent, Okay, so hardly stuff that's going to end our economy. But you all know what's been happening in the past few days. And if you're somebody who was planning to pull all your money out of the stock exchange this week, well you're in drople.

From the second the bell rang, it was carnage. More than one hundred and sixty billion dollars wiped off the Australian Stock Exchange in a matter of minutes.

not having bad days, bad weeks, potentially bad months. Hence why the person who is steering the Australian economy is some who shouldn't be the same person who lied to you about your power prices, took fifteen hundred dollars off ten median workers as an automatic tax return, and has put the budget into structural deficit for the next forty four zero years, starting at a trillion before we get to one point two trillion dollars in just three years.

Imagine where we'd be in five, in ten, in fifteen, goodness forbid, in twenty thirty or forty years. But every Australian is poorer as a result of this today. Now look, Australians have huge exposure to the stock market, but anyone who is serious about superannuation knows to the closer you get to retirement, you don't have as much of your superannuation directly linked to the share market, you might want it because there's a chance of a higher return. But

again I'm not giving financial advice. It's just common sense. Anyone who's been to a financial panther Simpson's term for financial planner knows that basically you're safe in things up the closer you get to the day that you need the money and the amount of money that's in the stock market. But everyone's saying what they're saying because it's a big, shocking number and these terrible days that have been behind us and most likely the into the future.

For Donald Trump, who was of course a billionaire and a president and probably couldn't care less whether he becomes slightly richer or slightly poorer, because of course he's a bloke who's going to at the very least be on presidential pension for the rest of his life. He says that all of this is a beautiful thing to behold, but that he's talking about that the tariffs is put

in place. Apparently a hundred nations have already been on the phone to say what can we do, what can we do to try to negotiate their way out of it, and Trump doesn't like when people ask him questions like this on Air Force one eve in the market at some point, you're unwilling to tolerate this idea of what Trump put is they're a threshold. I think your question is so stup. But an a minute, I think it's a I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take Matterson.

down by quite a few thousand points. This thing was into the mid mid file I think forty five thousand now down to thirty seven thousand. And again, when you have a look at a graph over the past month, not great, shocking, frightening, no question about it. When you have a look at the overall stocks this one being the all ordinaries in Australia. You have a look at over the last month, you go, jeez, what happened, Well, you know what happened the past couple of weeks has

taken place. Not fun, not good to look at, but just as part of the calm down factor and why people like Warren Buffett say, look, you don't play it day to day, you play it year to year. This is the stock market over the past five years in Australia. Yes, there is a dip right now. In fact, there is a fall right now, but compare that over time. Things are not great. But the idea that everyone's lost every dollar, it's nineteen eighty seven, it's nine to thirties. It's time

to find a window. No, not true, not a great day, not pretending in any other fashion, but that's the case. And also in the American markets again, forty five thousand has become thirty eight thousand in terms of the dowd Jones and the overall indices. That looks like it'll drop by another thousand points. Again you look at that over one month. Yeah, that's terrible, huge percentage drop that has

taken place. But let's have a look at it. Over the past five years, the American stock market has basically doubled in its worth since the pandemic, and that's not just replacing the losses, but essentially surging to twice the size of where it was in and around the days as we started to come out of the pandemic. Now again, can that thing drop all the way to the bottom, Yeah,

of course it can. But just some perspective, because when you actually have a look at the stock exchange over all time and again, nobody was investing in ninety ten, in ninety who's still sticking around in twenty twenty five. But just perspective. Again, I do not say it because I understand deeply how the world of finance works. That's Ross and he show at four thirty Eastern each and every day. But if you're somebody who goes all in and plays the market every day, yep, you've had an

absolute shocker. But for most people, when it comes to your retirement, as the time has rolled up, you should have been de risking things over the past few years. But again, your choice, your risk, your reward. But just some perspective. And I know I will get flamed for showing it. But just every now and then, when it comes to Trump and they say this guy is falling, go outside and double check with some of the great overreactions, both positively and negatively to Trump. Wait a week and

see what happens. The likelihood of the stock market eventually turning around and people being able to buy a share for ten percent cheaper than it was two weeks ago. Yeah, there's enough people with enough money to buy those shares and eventually things go up. That's the Trump logic. We'll all find out whether he's got no idea or like many many many, many, many, many, many many many times before Trump ends up being right. I certainly hope so.

In this case now, as you will have heard today, the big change was Peter Dundon had to admit that he was wrong. Now, I like anyone who is willing to turn around and say, you know what, I got it wrong, No question, I prefer if it didn't happen in the middle of an election campaign, because you don't want to get into that Julia Gillard area where we're going to hear from the real Julia, which is a

sign of just how bad a campaign is. But she did go on to continue being Prime Minister until Kevin Rudd, of course, stabbed her in the back a couple of years later. We also know that working from home is now something that we have to admit and exempt is a permanent part of not just the way the public service works, but also the way that people work from home. Now labor at a spectacular job of b seeing what this policy actually was, pretending that any and everyone who

works from home, that Peter Dutton will ban work from home. Well, of course the giant asterisk was it was only for public servants, and public servants are only a few hundred thousand of the many mini million people in this country who have a job. But you know, fats whatever, interest rates will fall four times in the next twelve months, hoping that you are barely paying attention, caring more about maths than about, say, the current or future state of

your country. And Albo has also been ripping into the mere idea that Australia should reduce the number of public servants because he's increased it, and he's done so by a football stadium costing tens of billions of dollars. Put simply, the increase in the number of public servants is how he's been able to say we're not in a recession, just you were.

changing your mind? Who knows? But how many times have you sat around and heard I just wish somebody would admit that they were wrong every now and then. Well, that's exactly what Peter Dutton did today.

seat of Boothby. Cos Samaras, our friend from Redbridge released this a little bit earlier in the week, of course, Canberra, bean Fenner Eden Manero. These are all the things in and around the act Adelaide Clark, Franklin, Clark and Franklin of course being in Tasmania Sturt, a seat the Liberal Party currently holds, but the Greens think they might be able to with their preferences, push this one towards labor. It sits in the top ten. Then Wills, Brisbane, Melbourne,

Griffith and Boothby. So for the Liberal Party to have one they're defending and one they're attacking in the top twenty is why the announcement was made there in that location. But for those who think that this thing dead, Barry cremated, it's all over. Pete Dutton did something very clever today, which was to recreate a moment that yes played out in the American election. But we are not talking about

Trump here. The best policy that a liberal politician or candidate has to take to the election is to say they will have fuel tax. So today Peter Dutton in the fuel truck on the back of it, a giant sign either side of the fuel truck saying if you vote for the LMP, if you vote for the Liberal Party,

twenty five cents cheaper petrol. Good smart. This is the message they must be relentless about because the truth is millions of people are apparently not paying attention right now, but if they start to see that, that is the central message when it comes to cost living, not the vague stuff that gets dropped in a press conference. This thing brings us back to where we should have been for the past three years. In fact, Garth Hamilton, the

member in and around to Woomba. He has decided to start putting up signs out the front of every single petrol station in his electorate save twenty five cents vot It is huge reaction on social media. This is what every candidate, every MP needs to do. Turn every petrol station into a billboard making that point. And yes, I'm eating in the middle of the nid yank come out, We'll guess what go and nail it back in the next day. And by the way, again, this thing's over.

The same resolve poll that tells us the Labor Party is getting stronger. Let's have a look at the issues. Why does the Prime Minister try to change the subject from these issues because he's losing on them. When it comes to economic management, the Liberals are winning. Which party is the best when it comes to keeping the cost of living low? The Liberals are winning which party is better? When it comes to crime and anti social behavior and taking it on? The Liberals are thumping it in And

who is the best choice for my family? Oh what the Liberal Party? That's because Australians aren't marks. They know that the current Prime Minister lied his way into office. Three years ago. His promise was that everything would get cheaper under a labor government. You know it didn't. In fact, the real cost of keeping labor in power for the past three years would be more of the same. Fifty four thousand people lost their job in January. That's the

latest numbers that we have. One point six million households are in mortgage stress, meaning they can't pay the mortgage. Two out of three people can't afford the rent. Three million people are on the verge of homelessness. Three point seven million Australian households will run out of food this week.

Twenty nine and a half thousand businesses have gone bust, the highest supermarket prices you've ever paid, the highest taxes on alcohol, on smoking, on petrol, budget deficits for the next forty years, and one point two trillion dollars debt that starts this year. Is this election over? Hell? No is our conversation just getting started, bloody oath, quick break back with more nosooks. No left is looking forward to it.

A senator, a future senator and our dear friends join us next or no socks now, Lefties and their guitars in hand. You can see him well on the hour, every hour because he's got that many shows and we love it. Can't get enough of James Morrow. Love you to see you, my friend, wait to be here, Polly campaign. The campaign show is on Campaign Confidential. Thank you Sunday Night, US Report Friday eight pm, Sunday Morning Outsiders. I love it all right, and the man is joining us next

week is one of the Mavericks. If you've got a question for him, we'll be in tweetheads. And I'm pleased he's there. Senator Matt Canavan, thank you so much. Where are you tonight? Mate? Out and about in the real world.

way to guarantee that your power bills just disappear. Matt, when you heard this one, did you think, oh goodness me, everyone's going to lose their seat. This is the best idea ever.

And keep in mind what this shows is the mutation of the once proud, working class based Labor Party to the one that now chases the votes of the rich with various forms of green tax seductions.

You know, don't forget Brisbane with the Greens there and everything like that.

while they're still also on the grid. This, I mean, someone would have with a bigger brain than me, and that's not hard. Would have to work out you know, how many you know, dollars per bagel, wats per tough or whatever you're you're baking and saving there. This has to be about the least efficient way to cut emissions you can imagine. But it's all about the feel good factor. Oh look, Paul coming to the garage and look at I do Tesla power.

that the world goes into a recession. But magically that would mean that interest rates are cut, hoping of course, that you won't pay attention to if this is the same logic as the people that tell us our budget is in deficit for the next forty four zero years rather the tape of charmers today four grim gym.

of this. The worst days ever, but get ready for interest rate cuts.

there'll be some interest rate cuts. That's not going to cut at Jim. We need to have a serious, serious look at ourselves right now to the cut, red tape, taxes, government overreach that we are imposing on ourselves. Yes, and the way we've become so reliant on China. So yes, the tariffs are a big concern, but I think something it should be of more concern to our nation's treasurer is the self imposed tariffs that we place on ourselves.

The Senator from the Northern Territory because she, of course was able along with Peter Dutton, along with the No campaign, to turn that referendum from sixty forty years to sixty forty No. She's a passionate and clear advocate for the things that she believes in. Well, the answer is she's here on Paul Murray Live tonight, Senator. Lovely to see you. People are desperate to see you in this election campaign. We saw you with the leader in the past couple

of days. But when do you get out there, when do you get your hands dirty and when do we start to see you shaking the cages that we know you can so well.

of Valas in the seat of Solomon as well. I will be getting out and about to other parts of the country absolutely, and you know, making sure that territorians first and foremost understand what it means to bring about a change because we're hearing everywhere, you know, it's right around the country. We're hearing how difficult life is for everybody, including Territorians. They're doing it tough.

but doesn't care about the seat. It's just a place to refuel while he's flying off to the to the rest of the world. So I think the territory focus makes obvious sense. That is your area of representation. But let's get into the wider sense of things. Look, the poles tell us that there's something's changed. The poles tell us to trend over the past four weeks. But part of the theme of my show tonight is to say

to people, the fundamentals have not changed. The people who promise to make everything better three years ago have made everything worse. The people who say Donald Trump is to blame for everything in the economy told us from twenty twenty three that there'll be budget deficits until the twenty sixties.

The same people who want to pretend that everything's fine are the people who've looked the other way when crime has got worse, so much so that it has been a major reason why there's been change of governments around the country. And to me, there's what the Canberra media wants to focus on, but then there's the fundamentals. And part of the task of trying to unseat this government is going back to those fundamentals. Am I off the mark here? Mate?

I'm very excited about that. But look, my kids are finding it difficult to try and get into the housing market, you know. And this is the future that the Albanesi government is setting up for our kids and our grandkids, one that's bleak, one where we're paying back this incredible debt that's hanging over our heads instead of creating a prosperous economy where everybody can do well and you know, be able to be able to attain their dreams going forward.

That's what we really have to look at. Are you better off now than what you were through three years ago under Albanezi bloody oath.