From the Skyinging Center.
This is Paul Murray Live.
Thank you, Sherry Little. In fact, you know Anthony Pratt getting around in that green suit. Apparently everyone who goes to the met gala that has to have their outfits approved by Anna wind tour in, the editor of one of those fashion Maga saintes See you didn't think the other like, don't just read that someone. All right, we've got a lot to get to tonight, including Kaus Samaris is back. Now normally we do a state of the Race with him, but we're going to get right into
what Australia actually looks like. Now a lot of us have got assumptions, well, Australia is this in Australia is that? Well he's been watching it closer than anyone, and he's gonna tell us what Australia actually looks like and whether we have to reset our expectations of what people believe and what people want, whether we've tipped over into the dependent state, or whether people want to be left alone. We'll get into all of that, because it's not just
the data. As part of what he was doing during the federal election campaign was talking to as many voters as possible who claimed to be undecided. The big winner of the past few days has been Nigel Farage. Now we've had to do without him here on Sky News for a little while because he has been working and working and working to get his Reform Party to be competitive where they were more than competitive. They've beat everyone in the local council elections all over the UK, more councilors,
more seats, more mayoralties. And the man will tell us about what it's like to be a happy warrior, about why he thinks the UK politics is now starting to find a different path than any observations that he may will have about our election. All of that tonight, and
I'm so pleased to say he is back now. As always, I'll have plenty of at the start of the show, but I'm going to try to save a bit more time for our guests tonight because I want to get into some of their insights after giving you some of mine. Now this might be a couple of days old, but I'm going to try to start as many shows as possible with something we can all agree on, And something we can all agree on is how awesome is Oscar Piastre.
This bloke is leading the Formula One World title, and he's starting to look like if his form keeps going the way that he does, he's going to run away with it. It doesn't mean he's locked it away yet, but he's won multiple in a row. This bloke is absolutely kicking backside here. He was moaning in Miami early Monday morning.
Yesterday was a tricky day. Obviously the sprint was what it was, but qualifying was probably one of my trickier sessions for the year, and to to come away with a win still on Sundays is an impressive result.
Now, of course, his biggest rival is a bloke who is part of his team. Already, towards the end of last year, Lando Norris, a British driver, was doing better in terms of his results, so the team started to put its focus behind him. And Lando Norris is running second in the championship, So those two blokes are fighting
it out. After a few more racest things, I think will start to move in terms of supporting Oscar even more so and Max Forstappen, the multiple time world champion, Well, a lot's got to go wrong for the two blokes in front, and lot's going to go right for anything to change, but an Australian on their way to world title success in Formula one something we can all agree on tonight. Now, no one's going to pretend the result wasn't the result.
Part.
We are going to talk about some silver linings that come out of the election, and there are a couple that are still proving themselves right now. Oh I love Zoey Daniel. Oh how good am I? I defeated the Libs. I'm going to be here forever. This was her on Saturday Night.
It's been a hard campaign team.
Being Goldstein.
Hope wins.
The Liberal Party threw everything out, us guys.
Who everything, and we are standing here to celebrate on the teal And I'm gonna win three more years. But I have to wait a couple of days. And this headline kind says it. Oh, with eighty two percent of the vote counted, guess what. Zoey Daniel looks like she's on her way out. Hope did not win in the end, somebody else's Hope seems to have won, and Tim Wilson
looks like he's back into the parliament now. Tim is very much a lefty Liberal and very much will be out and about instead of you know, doing the Q and a circuit about how the Liberal Party should be more like him and all the rest of it. But good on him. He didn't take the past three years lying down. He decided to turn around. He fought hard. And believe me, these climbate to two hundred people, they
fight just as hard as anyone else in the game. Now, because of the pre pop vote, because of the postal vote, he's now getting into a place where people are calling the seat, including the great Tom Connell or the dancing was for things, So you can dance in your car now, but you're not going to be the MP. That's for another Teal, this one up in the seat of Bradfield. Now, this is Bradfield formally held by the Liberal Party for
a long period of time. I say formerly because we still don't know exactly which way this thing is going to fall. But on Saturday night the Teal who wanted to become the MP there, you know, the one with the dirty jokes and the couldn't quite tell why the Teals weren't a party on social media. Well she was in front, then behind and now starting to fall behind, not by a big number. But the Liberal is up by fifty one votes. Now the postal votes are on
their way back through reality years postal votes. Obviously they need to break a little more for the Liberals to start getting super confident here. So nobody's doing any dancing metaphorically or in reality. But good to see that the liber may well hold on in Bradfield. If not, the Teals have gone all in on this one. They thought this was the next on the list and if it means they can't grow the footprint in New South Wales,
but in fact it'll pretty much stay the same. If it retracts in Victoria, that's a good thing for those of us who say a few less Teeals is.
Not a bad thing.
In Western Australia, the picture is not good for the Liberal Party been thumped. Remember their assumption was Labor Party one four seats, two of them will come back. Well, there was a brand new seat that appeared. Personally, I was a massive fan of Mia Davies, who is the National Party former leader. I think she's a star. If we get a chance to make her part of the round table of conversation, she'll always be welcomed here on
Paul Murray Live. Well, of course, her finishing third means her preferences go to the liberal and the liberal and the seat of Bullwinkle is now leading by five hundred and forty four votes. So the brand new seat, which again Labor thought they were a chance, we'll see what happens. Again. I'm not saying Bradfield settled. I'm not saying Bullwinkle is settled. One could go to a tier, one could go to Labor.
But tonight that is the particular silver lining. But the one ray of sunshine in the shape of a band is what the voters of Melbourne have decided to do. Now. They claim nothing's going to break up the seat of Melbourne and the Greens leader and DJ and favored candidate of people on social media, some people on social media, Well, the numbers are not good for him. We've shown you them all the way through, and here he is saying that he thinks he's going to get there in the end.
A number of the Lower House seats, of course, are now three three cornered contests. And so when there is a bit shift from Labor to Liberala, from Liberal to Labor, it has flown through consequences.
See, his whole thing, right is as long as the fight ends up being me versus Labor, and the Greens always get the preferences from the Liberals because at the end of the day they want to deny Labor seats.
He wins the seat. But the principal decision of the Liberal Party, which has helped the Labor Party at this election defeat many of the Greens that they have or potentially this one, is that they put their the Greens dead last, meaning that essentially the two thirds the even three here ends up uniting to knock off the Green. Now this isn't over yet, but it's on its way. I don't know why the count is so slow. Maybe
there's other vote that comes from other places. But if one person is up by three thousand votes a couple of days after the election, it is unusual if that flips anytime soon. So it was a dark weekend. I'm not going to hide from it, not going to pretend. I'm not going to pretend the Liberal Party did not get its backside handed to it. Or as I often say in a metaphor, that doesn't quite make sense to some people, but those who do understand it will they
get it. They were turned inside out like an old pair of socks. No question about what the result was here, but a couple of silver linings along the way. They help, They help soothe the feelings of the past few days. Perhaps one til gone another won't get in lib over labor in one seat in Western Australia, and maybe, just maybe, just maybe bye bye bands, see what happens a law from now. As for whom the next Liberal Party leader is Susan Lay, the current Deputy Dan Teen, the current
Shadow Immigration Minister, Angus Taylor the Shadow Treasurer. That's the three. The suggestion tonight is that Dan Teen is the least likely to be leader of the three. So does he get behind Angus Taylor or does he get behind Susan Lay. Now I'm not going to pretend to know the absolute inner workings of who backs who and who factionally this and who factionally that. But one name that has dropped out.
It was first reported by Peter Kredlin last night. Reason why I should watch all of our shows all of the time is that Andrew Hasty is out of the race. Now I've got to say I'm disappointed. This bloke looks great on TV, had a great result in Western Australia represents a generational change and I think would be an absolutely fresh face for the leadership. I also know that he's got a young family and being a leader from
Western Australia is very difficult. Why because of time zones, which means you've got to really early and you've got to spend plenty of time on the East Coast fundraising, many time away from your family. But if you run for a set in Parliament, one always presumes there's one hundred and fifty people who think they should be the leader of their party and eventually should be the Prime minister.
And I know that the more cynical part of us will say, well, he's just sitting back and waiting and somebody else can have the hospital past of the next three years or the next six years and then he comes to prominence. I don't like that attitude, and I'm not saying that is his attitude, but I say everyone should be seen who wants to lead today, tomorrow or in ten years time should put up their hand to show that they should be considered in such a fashion.
So I'm disappointed that he's not going to be running, but it seems like it is now down to Angus Taylor versus Susan Lay. Now I'm not going to suggest which one should or shouldn't win, or is or isn't going to win, but there are a couple of things that I think people should consider about not just learning a lesson, but be seen to be learning a lesson after an election result before eight was cast, there are more women in the Australian political system than there are
men in virtually every single state in the country. In fact, there's nine point two million female voters eight point eight male voters. And just to make my point one more time, of the twelve seats of the Liberal Party lost all twelve, one, two, three, four, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven twelve seats had more female voters in them than men. Nothing to see here, nothing at all to me. It seems fairly obvious. And again I'm not endorsing, but come on, you want to be not just learn a lesson, but
seem to be a lesson. You've got a deputy seems to me like a fairly obvious choice. But we'll see what happens and we'll talk with either into the future. Plenty of people who are part of the Liberal Party have had plenty to say in the past couple of days. He's just a sample of what they think went wrong and where they should go to from here. Elections are bruising and at the moment the Liberal and National Parties have got soul soarching to.
Do in those communities which really do rely on work from home.
It did do some damage, There's no doubt about it.
I think there are people inside the party that didn't want Peter to become the prime minister.
We are facing an existential crisis here.
We really need to change quite fundamentally how we go about business, and.
The main issue is that we didn't have enough work done and we had many years to develop policy, and agreeably there was not enough ambition, particularly on the economics site.
We need to listen to what the country are telling us, and through their voting, they're telling us that they don't see themselves represented in the Liberal Party as we stand here today, and we need to understand that and we need to move forward.
I know who I won't be supporting. I think when you've had roles leading what was supposed to be the economic narrative, when you were supposed to be putting together tax policies, you were supposed to be delivering that sort of messaging for the coalition.
There's certain people that I think need to.
Do a lot of reflection themselves on what their role was in miss laws and perhaps putting your hand up for the leadership is not exactly where your strength lies.
We were let down by posters and strategists, which frankly gave us a bum steer of the worst order. And now we have the result to fit those bits of bad advice. Where was the urgent care clinics in the small communities? Where was our support for the tazzy health system? Labor did it?
We didn't.
We were ignored with our requests and as a result we've lost Bass, We've lost Braddon, and I can't say there's getting lines anytime soon.
All right, So impressive haircuts and very strong opinions in all of that. Geez, I wonder whom Polly Hughes may be talking about. She's almost having fun with what is going on right now. But there is one grip that I am not going to let off the hook. The posters who were so wrong, I mean so wrong. These were the posters who were the private polsters to the Liberal Party. The Freshwater Organization and some sideries around it. These were the people who claimed that they were fifty
to fifty and lots of seeds. They claimed that the leader was five points up in his seat when he was on his way out the door. Now, as we showed you on Sunday night, the poster took to the Sydney Morning Sorry to the Financial Review to say the three different reasons why they missed it and they are doing everything they can too possibly save their backside. Why because there's a lot of money involved here. You lose a contract to be the poster for a media organization,
you lose a lot of money. But in the same way that the Morgan Pole told us that Mark Latham was going to be the prime minister, the Freshwater pole needs to spend probably three years in the wilderness. That's
just the way it goes. They have to show that they get it right before they even get invited back into the room, let alone actually back into the heart of a decision maker when it comes to a political party and nice try the people inside either the Liberal Party or the polling organization who knows who've decided to start leaking the truth that was really being told by
the posters. There's plenty of evidence that I'm pretty sure plenty of people will be willing to push back to say nice try saying I was always telling you were headed in the wrong direction when the numbers night after night after night after night, week after week after week after week, were wrong, way wrong. So I get it, and I get what they're doing, and I get how they're trying to save their backside, and they know that throwing the Liberal Party under the bus is the way
to save their own backside. But the reality is the reputational damage when you get it wrong. And this is the thing about Pulses that I will say I actually admire is that we can tell straight up if they get it right or they're wrong. Now we know that News poll pretty close, we know that red Bridge the people that we like to talk to, and obviously Costumarus has been a big part of our pre election and
now post election. Look is guest on the show tonight and we'll talk about how Australia has changed in lots of different ways. In fact, we'll do that in some detail in a couple of moments. Time they nailed it, well done, high fives, you get to play again and we trust you over the next three years. But the people who were saying as late as a week and a bit ago, the Libs are going to go in
ten seats, You're off to the wilderness. And no amount of trying to leak against the Liberals or the politicians who lost the election is going to save their backside, all right, and speaking about how the vote has changed over time. I want to spend a bit of time on this because this is going to be part of our discussion tonight. Now again, we're not going to wallow. I mean, you know the Libs lost, right, you know the Libs lost. They lost big, and you know where
they lost everywhere. You know, there's some silver linings where there's a little bit of a win back here, a little come back there. Great, but there are deeper things inside worth talking about. Now. For those that have only just joined us or maybe missed a show on Sunday, I want to point you to Sky News. Do that?
Are you to the YouTube channel? And I make sure on our socials just go searching for Paul Murray Live that I have posted my response to the election now similar to Peter and her spectacular detailed response last night. All of that is up to be seen, and I will take it as read that you will have seen those things, so you're able to see the five ideas that I had for the organization, the emotional side of
things about millions of people who aren't feeling great. So I'm not just going to repeat that over and over and over for everyone who has missed it, but point you in the direction that yes, that has been said. And I'm not shying away from the difficulties of just a few days ago, and in a few weeks it will be just as difficult, and in a few months it will be just as difficult. All Right, I'm not going to sit in the world of denial and happy talk.
We're going to deal with the reality of things. But there are a few things that no political party had any hand in involving itself in this election. This does not, in any way, shape or form watered down how bad things were for the Libs. Okay, make it very clear, May I yell it to the cheap, cheap seats almost that are going to try to say there he is trying to find a way around it. No, no, no, no, I couldn't be more honest painfully honest about what has happened.
But I want to show you the polling that I thought was most correct during the election, and it shows us that events outside of anything that either party could do, did push people in a direction. Now, the politicians, the media, the social media, they help exacerbate these pushes, so maybe they become slightly bigger or slightly smaller, depending on what
side of the fence that you live in. Now, I've shown you already before that more women were voting in this election than at any other time before, and more than men. I've also shown you that when you look at the electoral Role, which in many ways is kind of one of the best polls that's out there, because you can go by seating workout under fifty over fifty,
and that number is pretty clear. There's six hundred and seventeen thousand more people under the age of fifty than the eight point eight million people who are under the age of fifty. I'm going to keep an eye on this every six months and every year between now and the election, because we are going to start to get to see what is really going on, and also what
we can have a look at here is the waves. Now, this was done where there were five different polls that were done by the Red Bridge organization that focused in on twenty seats that are known to have been marginal seats, sometimes Liberals, sometimes Labor. Okay, Now, the way to read this chart is to look at the bottom right hand corner first, because that was wave one, when the Liberal Party was fifty two, the Labor Party was forty eight.
In the second wave it was fifty to fifty. In the third wave it was Labor fifty three forty seven, in the fourth wave it was forty five fifty five, and in the last it was exactly the same. So as you can read from the bottom right to the top left for the Labor Party, it works in exactly the opposite direction when you start to see them two starting off behind and then moving in front the further
time went. Now, I want to break this down and talk about apart from the debates, apart from the ads, apart from the social media, apart from all of that stuff, that the Liberals got wrong, the Labor got right, and that the Liberal Party got punished for again no excuses, but just about understanding all right. In the first wave and the first poll which was towards the start of February, the Labor Party was behind the Liberal Party fifty two forty eight. And then in February the first of the
Reserve Bank rate cuts took place. That leveled the game because in the second wave of polling it was essentially fifty fifty. See the difference between Wave one and Wave two. The difference between Wave three and Wave four was that on the twenty eighth of February, Trump had that fight with Zelinsky in the White House. On April two, remember this was the period of time where the election was being delayed. Trump introduced the tariffs on Australia on April
the second. The stock market had its panic on April the seventh. So see the difference between before the rate cut and before some of the more controversial, if not outright annoying things about Trump and his effect on Australian politics. You saw it, fifty two forty eight became fifty to
fifty became fifty two forty eight. Then the difference between Wave three and Wave four was the decision to dump telling public servants that they had to work from home now again their internal information was telling them that things
were in trouble. But they also were seen from the external polling a slide from leading in February fifty two forty eight to losing in March fifty two forty seven, and then the final two waves of the last two weeks of the campaign they basically land in the same spot fifty four and a bit fifty five and a bit. Essentially the end result fifty five forty five. The result
Albo wins and Albo wins big. So the Liberal Party still had all the same candidates, still had the electorate that was younger and more female than before, but still in all of those sectors it was leading. Now again, I am not sitting here and I am not pretending that the Liberal Party did not do everything it could to lose the election. And I'm not pretending and I am not giving credit to the Labor Party for the making the most of all of the things that were
beyond their control. But they were able to turn into the narratives that it wasn't the time to change the government, or that the worst of times was behind us. And in all of the different demographics again age and gender, there is one group of people that kind of represent the absolute middle of Australia now, generally speaking, in age, these people will most predominantly be between thirty five and
fifty five. So there's a little bit in the under fifty, but a little bit more in the under fifty, and a little bit in the over fifty. And that is mortgage holders, the people who had had twelve interest rate rises that had happened, the people who we had spoken about, because every piece of evidence was that this was a group that was ready for some sort of radical change because the amount of money that they had had to spend on servicing those loans was going up and up,
up up. Well again, let me show you the sub sect of polling, subsection of polling from the red Bridge group in wave one, in wave two, Okay, in Wave one, the Libs were winning them fifty one forty nine. This was still below the overall number, so it was a pretty tight fight. But then as soon as interest rates did get cut for the first time, guess what happened. It became a fifty to fifty race again, still something
that absolutely either side could have won. But after the events when it came to Trump, and then more importantly the stock market reaction to the Trump tariffs, which saw people concerned about money. Guess what happened. Fifty one forty nine becomes fifty three forty seven and guess where it lands for the final part of the campaign fifty five forty five. So that is an overall sign of perhaps the biggest group who were sliding a certain way that
slidered back another way. On top of the demographic issues that are more people under the age of fifty, more females. Every single seat where the Liberal Party lost there were more female voters than males. Just part of the conversation we're going to have with Cos Samoris, of course, the great man from Redbridge. Not to wallow in the result, but again to step back and look a little bit further. What does somebody who's under the age of fifty want
out of a political party? What was something that they were saying that changed during the election, What was something when it came to male and female voters that never changed during the election, And what are some of the things that did change during the election. Now, again this is not wallowing in the result. This is understanding the result, and it's understanding Australia. It's under Austra Understanding Australia as it is not as sometimes some people guess it to be.
But just in case that might be slightly depressing for you. Can we see Zoey Dan Zoe Daniel dancing again when she thought she was one but she actually lost.
KOs Samaras he joins us as well as Nigel Ferrat. Costa Mars is the boss of the Red Bridge organization. We've spoken to him a couple of days ago.
He features very regularly across the Australian media and he's the man who got it most right when it came to the election and what was changing and the subgroups and all the rest of it. I've already got a couple of emails from people saying, hey, move on from the election.
Don't worry.
It's not going to be for the rest of our lives. But this is a bloke and can tell us about what Australia is at the moment and what it demands of its politicians and if you would like a different result in three, six, nine, twelve or however many years Elbow plans to rule for these are going to be the keys. Cose love you to see you mate. Did I get it right about that? Mortgage Holders as an example of a key driver.
It was a really good illustration of how how the country moved over that period of the campaign. And you know, whether it was the mortgage holders and obviously those key events that shaped the campaign, we know that the external external events, you know, particularly around Trump, had a very profound impact on the body politic of this country and you could see that with the waves. You've done a really good job in illustrating how those waves moved through.
It's important for your viewers to to know that, you know, us as posters, that's the sort of data we look at and we can just see things move. And then you dig deep into the data and you quickly realize you know what's moving the needle in one direction or the other, and you get a pretty good picture to what's motivating Australians.
And then again it's up to the political parties to make the most of those movements right to see. Oh, okay, so that's why they talk about this, when they talk about this, this is why all of those things. Now, was there any other group that moved in a similar pattern? I mean, obviously the result would suggest most, but was there a particular group that was somewhere in February that was somewhere else by Saturday.
Yeah.
Look, the biggest group of Australians that moved from the Coalition to minor parties and then breaferenced Labor were people in their forties and fifties who are renting and who have got a mortgage. You know, you reference the mortgage component there, but also renters as well. And these two groups, you know, in their forties and fifties, you could.
You kind of see why. I mean, they are in.
Their forties and fifties and they're renting and they've got a mortgage. They're probably looking at their life ahead of them and they're thinking, hell, you know, I'm probably not going to pay off this mortgage for the time I get to retirement. You know, lots of anxiety, lots of stress. Clearly not fans of Labor right at the beginning of February and so you know, they took one look at the Coalition thought, no, they're not offering anything as a solution.
I'm off and can I.
Ask a speculative question. And this is one where there's not going to be the data, but you're going to remember the faces and the voices from all of the people who were talking to you during the election, if there hadn't been that interest rate fall, would that because obviously interstrate full meant labor was able to say, hey, worst is over, We're on our way where we've come
up and over the hill. Do you think that that interest rate change did open the door to them looking at a different way to preference.
Yeah.
Absolutely, And so what it did is that it gave people license to think, well, I'm going to choose the less of the two evils.
Yeah, I don't like any of them. You know.
So these voters I've talked about that went from the colish to minor parties, well, at least the mob that are currently in government seem to know some idea what's going on.
That's why the interest rates has dropped.
And you know, they seem to have a pretty clear policy plan, although I think that most of them are band aids. So I'm going to for then, I'm going to preference them. I'm going to vote for them on a party first, and that's the key, right, And so it's the lesson of the two evils or least worst option.
That's what's happened to you.
Now I'm going to get dangerously close to asking you questions that you charge to answer, so feel free. So I appreciate that insight very much, and whoever's willing to sign them up, do it because you're going to get an advantage in whatever industry you're in in the next little while. This particular, like I decided for understanding to have a the under fifty over fifty and the male female as the general split to try to understand things.
Married it with the electoral role, and you start to see that, oh, there might be the male female problem because there are more female voters than there are male by about half amdian. That's significant when you're at thousands here and thousands there. It might be significant that when pretty much again a very significant amount. I think it's about six hundred thousand this time between the under fifty
over fifty. Let's talk about that in terms of whether you are team red, Team Blue, Team Orange, or team something else. Let's talk about people who are under fifty before you even start talking about Peter dr and Anthony ibneasy labor or liberal. Tell me what somebody under the age of fifty expects from politics. That may not be what somebody who's over fifty or Gen X wants from politics.
Yeah, absolutely that This is why we generally always talk about Malleias and gen Z because they are very different to older generations.
So gen X and Burma's and older very different.
They have a very strong view that their quality of life they are living and will live is going to be a lesser quality than their parents they are obviously, you know, if they're renting.
They think they'll never own a home.
There's all sorts of things going in that space which is making them feel quite angry about the world around them. You know, they've grown up in a family. You know, their parents have owned.
A home or they were paying off the home.
And a particular life stile where they thought if they went to school and study hard and went to university and got the degree or went to tape and got a qualification, that they will follow in the fullstep of their parents. And they're not doing that, and so there's a lot of anger there. So hence we see amongst under fifty year olds the lowest levels of values connection
with the major parties. So I think it goes down to about you know, with gen Z down to twenty percent, a lot of people out there just have no tribal Lawdy to anyone.
So again, there's this concept of conservative and progressive and that pushes you in one way or the other. As you say, the younger you go, the less that is. But somebody's going to sit and say, well, isn't that the way it's always been? Is there a counter to that perception?
Yeah?
Absolutely, So if you look at our generation Gen X, you know, we in our twenties largely fifty two forty eight towards labor in general.
The boomers have been a bit different.
They've gotten they have become a lot more conservative as they've gotten older. Millennial we've traced their voting behavior since so when the early twenties to now, the oldest one is forty four years of age. So we have a really good long form set of data that shows us they're not moving.
To the right or to conservative politics.
Well, one of the drives is because they've got nothing to conserve, right, they don't own a home, they don't own as many assets as older Australians, so therefore they don't think of the world like older Australians do. So that's fundamentally the biggest break. And I think home ownership
is the break here. You know, like Robert Menzies, you know, with the Coalition understood that and home ownership was the epicenter of the liberal cause, and I think that's been disconnected from the liberal cause today.
So when somebody is sitting in those groups and they're talking about things like home ownership, reality is a unit in a Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane is going to be the best part of a million bucks. They're not going to be perhaps earning maybe they're earning around one hundred grand, the capacity for them to eventually get to
a deposit. And this is what was really interesting was is that you could see people liked the idea of a lower deposit under Labor, people liked the idea of some of the mortgage repayments being tax deductible under the Libs. I get that. The answer is, well, a bit of everything, But for both sides, the reality is that the thing of which people covert is becoming more expensive and the amount of money that you earn is not as much
that will get you to that coveting. So that's the sort of area that they need to be talking about.
Yeah.
Absolutely, So you know, when I purchased my home for the first time, I was in my thirties, it was probably about was the price that was paid around seven years annual salary. It's now fifteen. Where my parents bought a home Boomers, it was probably three or four or five whatever that is. So going to your point, you know, we're dealing with a generation now that's facing a significant different lifestyle than all the Australians and that's shaping their
voting behavior. I might say that this term about younger people more progressive, well they are, but they're also anti establishment. So hence Trump was very good at tapping into them in the US and Farage is very good at tapping into them in the UK.
So let's get to again the male female divide. And again I understand that there is a very blood instrument, and I get that there's many shades in all of these things. But if we can start to find certain uniform things that those people in groups are telling you, and they're telling you in suburban Melbourne and suburban Brisbane and suburban Sydney, what is there the gender divide that seems to marry up with that electoral role as well?
Absolutely, you know you've you you've britantly illustrated the the number of additional women.
That are on the voter's roll.
And how you know, in the electorates where there are more women than men, Labor did a lot better. Now we know why also because in our Polly women so Labor Party had a ten percent in margin on the on the coalition when it came to women. And that's across the board. So the seats we were poland we're not in the urban they weren't, you know, just exclusively professional women in till seats. They were suburban regional electorates, and women you know, in these electorates were.
Voting in the majority for the Labor Party.
And I would argue that Darton had a much bigger problem with women than Morrison did.
Yeah, correct, correct, I mean, look, and the result being obvious, we sort of answered it before. But I want to dance on this right and it just everyone stick with me. May I use all of the good will I built up over fifteen years for you not to grab a remote in the next sixty seconds?
Okay?
Was housing to this election what climate change was to the twenty two election? Because I know anecdotally people that have voted liberal their whole life, who were making decisions exclusively of housing for their kids.
Yeah, absolutely correct, And it's become more acute because you know what the twelve interest rate rises have done. It's illustrated to not just those who are in the rental market or having a mortgage, or those who've got kids who've got a mortgage, or those have got kids who are in the rental market. It's illustrated to everyone just how impactful our housing market is on the lives.
Of younger Australians. And it took those twelve interest rate rises to illustrate that. So, yes, you're absolutely correct.
All right. Can I get thirty seconds from each of these? Which I know is an impossible task, but it's the joy of being the TV host and you've been the bloke being asked the question, answering the questions. What's the free advice to the libs that you would offer?
Small business that's your new working class. It's in the outer suburbs in huge numbers. It's replaced a lot of the blue collar constituencies. The employees, those who work for small businesses are very low to their boss, the college. She did nothing in that space that was substantial. If you go there, there's a lot of oaks to be.
Had free advice for Labor about not peddling away what they've been able to put together.
The Labor Party won twenty more seats than it did in twenty sixteen with the same primary vote. That means that the other vote, the four point something million Australians who vote for other parties, just as easily turned this table around the other side in three years time. So just keep an eye on that good stuff.
Couse. We love you mate again. We'll see you down the road. But thank you for all of the information you've given us, really appreciate it. Thank you there the Red Bridge Organization. What a spectacular insight they have had, all right. A man who has absolutely kicked us in the UK. This bloke has won all over the United Kingdom and has put Reform on a path not just being the opposition but maybe the government. May be the
next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The only place you see him is with us on Pulmary Live on a Tuesday night. Nigel Farage mixed.
In time for the man Who's.
Never borign, the one, the only Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader and the man who led a revolution in that part of that beautiful country of the United Kingdom, great man, love you to see you.
Congratulations, this is phenomenal. I mean, up and up and down the hill. What was it, six hundred and sixty seven councilors, how many mayoralties year one everywhere? Mate? Congratulations, Yeah, huge result.
I mean I have to say, as I was two the country in the last month and meeting our batches of candidates, and they were saying, we're going to win, We're going to win, Nigel, and I'd get back in the car and talk to my press officer, and so I think they're all a bit deluded. I think they're all going to be over excited. Well they were right, they were right. I grossly underestimated what we did. I mean, we topped the poll by a mile, We won the
most seats by a mile. We got another member of Parliament elected, and importantly for us, particularly given your previous discussions about Dunton, we've now got two very very prominent female members.
You know.
One is a mayor of Greater Lincolnshire. The other is Sarah Poachin, who I'm going to walk up the House of Commons today for her swearing in in a couple of hours.
Time, and we've.
Also got like a mayor who was elected who was a thirty seven year old gold medal winner in the Olympics, So we've got youth, we've got women, and the whole look of the party has changed not because of positive discrimination, which I disagree with completely. That's how it's grown, that's how it's evolved. And amazingly, my popularity since last Thursday
is up by five points. So all I need to do, Paul, is to be photographed with a pint in as many pubs as possible over the next four years and we should be home and drive.
The good thing is you've been practicing it for a few years before you're going to put this strategy into effect, and I think you'll be able to hit as many of them as possible and there'll be plenty of people willing to buy them for you. Now that you're in a position where I mean, explain to Australian it's the
role of a council in the UK. Is it similar to things like the United States where it has a greater connection to employing police, or it has a greater role in government because obviously there's not state government, there's federal government. And then these councils. What does control of a council give you?
Well, they look after social care, adult social care, which with an aging population is a course of very very biggest you. They look after kids with special educational needs. They look after the roads and let me tell you, our roads are full of potholes absolutely everywhere. They look
after the rubbish collection, They oversee policing, law and order. Actually, you know, your county council probably has a greater effect on your daily life than whichever m up it is sitting in number ten downing stream, So they really do master. And for us, you know, we literally have gone from nothing overnight to establishing a massive base in local government across England and we're going to go on next year for the Welsh and Scottish parliament elections where we're going
to do well. And yeah, you know, I mean we've got the M, the big M momentum.
That's what's going with us. And do you know why? Do you know why?
Because we're optimistic, we're fun, we have a laugh, and we're unashamedly pro the family, pro communities and pro country and.
We don't believe in woke.
All of our new counselors this week are told they've got to do DEI training.
Let me just tell you something. None of them are doing it.
Yes, yes they're going to that we set the link, they won't touch the link and it will not affect them into the future. That happy warrior stuff. I mean, we've talked about this at the national level, but when it's not just the happy warrior in you, the party leader, have you been able to find candidates who are happy warriors?
And again, as Australia's Conservatives are sitting and licking their wounds and all the rest of it, let's talk about why you've got to be a happy warrior, not a fake one, a fair income one who wants to light up a room when they walk into it.
Well, real people laugh, and real people cry, and real people have emotions. And generally Conservative politicians around the Western world are very often some of the stuffiest, dullest, most boring people that you could ever possible you meet.
And I think that was true, isn't it? You know?
I mean you sort of turn up to a Conservative Party meeting and there's sort of you know, sort of I'm just people that you wouldn't really bother to spend too much time with our people come from all walks of life. There's loads of passion, but above all, you go to a reform meeting, it's like a rock concert. People are so full of optimism, of hope, of belief
that we can turn this around. And if you think about Trump in America, you know Trump, Yeah, sure he's hard hitting, but also he can be very very funny as well, and I do think that humorous, that human side is absolutely what conservative leaders need.
So then as we talk about again the Westminster of things, the fact that you will march a new MP in there after the by election, seeing where we were in a conversation a year, two years ago versus where it is now, what does it say to you that in a system that's first past the post, that's very difficult. All of the reasons we've talked about before that it's hard to get somebody up, that you're getting them up, and you keep getting them up.
When you start to look like a winner, it kind of just grows on itself. As we've now proved that we can win nearly seven hundred council seats and other mp all under first past the post. When people start to believe it, then my slogan vote reform, get reform. If people really believe that, then I tell you something we can and I mean this, go on and win the next general election. And that is what I am absolutely committed to doing. I cannot bear to see this
country going downhill in the way that it is. Someone who's got to stand up, you know, plant that flag. And I am confident that the silent majority of people in our country hate all this wokee left wing nonsense. They believe in proper values, and I'm going to commit myself for the next four years to doing this.
That of course means that you would end up as the prime minister, and I know you don't want to get ahead of yourself, but the goal is clear. And when there's a clear goal and all of the things we've talked about tonight, you start to make your way. When they talk about how all politics is local, right, and you've obviously got now this foothold of local government, does that help better inform you about where you need to be and about what's really happening in the world.
That helps you in the momentum to potentially putting yourself into a place to be a contender for peer.
You know, we're all good at some things in life and bad at others. I'm bad at most things, but the one thing I'm good at, I'm actually quite good at understanding. I'm good at understanding where public opinion is, you know, And I enjoy going out into crowds, meeting people, having little chats and I think, I think that foothold
or big foothold, and don't forget. You know, we are outright controlling ten of the biggest counties in England, some of them that were held by Labor, more that were held.
By the Conservatives.
I think that's going to get me even closer to the ground of where public opinion is on so many issues. People are crying out for principle, crying out for leadership because, frankly, what we've got from the other two parties that have run this country for over one hundred years, frankly a bunch of incompetents who seem to have no idea what they're doing, and they're all panicking. I mean, the Prime Minister said, in response to our win, we're going to
go further and faster. I have no idea what is even talking about. And the Conservatives will have another civil war and probably their seventh leader in the space of four years, and we're just going to crack on now.
I just got a couple of minutes said your reflections on the Australian election and what to say to people who may well have voted for the team that he's half of what the government is now.
Well, obviously it's very disappointing.
I think Peter Dutton is a very decent bloke, but he lacks that bit of spark. He's not a great smiler. I just think that that to invigorate people of a conservative mindset in the modern world, you've got to have that flash, that spark of inspiration. And I'm not saying this to do Dutton down. Obviously the Trump thing wasn't helpful. You know, putting America first has caused some issues for Australia.
But I don't think it's just that. I think I think one can overread, you know, the the Trump effect on Australian politics. I just think that the Australian you know, small Sea cansservative movement just needs to find something a bit more inspiring. And as I say, I don't want to be rude, but that's how I feel about it.
Fair point. Thank you mate, I really do appreciate it. Congratulations and nice to have you back. And wasn't it good to see that some media has worked out that we have a chat each week. I think we've been doing it for a couple of years now, but good on them for working out. Did you know Nigel Farage talks to guide you? Geez, they're on the news, are they They're on the beat? Exactly, love you mate, We'll see it. So there is Nigel Farage kicking backside in
the United States. In the United Kingdom, I should say, of course, my apologies. I turned to the United States because tomorrow night, Meghan Kelly is on the show. For those that are saying quick talk about something else, move on from the Australian election, Well Meghan Kelly, she's been to space. She's been to space, she is an astronaut and she makes us all feel better about ourselves as she rips apart to the wok idiots. And I'm sure she'll have a bit to say about Prince Harry as well.
So Megan Kelly on the show tomorrow night. Thanks for watching. We'll see you again. Then you can always send me in an my politskar News dot com dot are you late? Debate It's next