Paul Murray Live | 6 April

Pauline's daughter running for the Senate. She's running against Jackie Lambi and Tasmania, so I'm more than happy to give her as much time on the air as possible. Also, what a week we have here on Sky News. On Tuesday night, seven point thirty in prime time, the Prime Minister versus the Alternative Prime Minister in the People's Forum, one hundred undecided voters in Western Sydney. We'll get their chance to ask whatever they want, not what the media

has decided. The next day, again in primetime, Jim Chalmers versus Angus Taylor about the economy, and in the middle of the day via the National Press Club, a conversation about energy with blackout Bowen or the man who would like to send us into a nuclear age at some point in time. Ted O'Brien, three massive days, three debates, full coverage, each and every night here at nine o'clock, which is the same time on the East coast. Now that that daylight saving business has gone for the bin,

I'm glad that you hear. There's an awful lot to get to tonight before I get to the polls. And yes they have strengthened in terms of the government, but as always, devil is in the detail. Let's have a look. Twenty seven days to go, or more importantly, just sixteen until the first votes will be cast in this election. More than half of four people expected to vote early. That's why it matters. That's why the first couple of

weeks particularly matters. I do like how the Prime Minister keeps talking about trying to fend off American style politics and then has a Trump style rally, signs and awe in Brisbane today where unsurprisingly he had more of your money to spend.

But this weekend again at Tasmania. Spend a bit of time there, spend a bit of time in the Northern territory as well. His big announcement today at his election rally. The first of this campaign was to focus on cutting the number of students who are clogging up our immigration system.

about the Prime Minister falling off the stage. I will not pretend that there was not an incident where the alternative Prime Minister was kicking the footy with a bunch of kids. The cameraman got too close and he got bandageges up as if it was some sort of a head wound from a sniper. I'm not sure why such an extensive amount of bandages were needed, but Jesus was a big over cell, wasn't it again. I'm sorry that

somebody got hurt. That's the way that it is. But the idea that we needed to pretend that there was some sort of a gunshot wound a little much anyway. As you've seen many times, I didn't care when it was the Prime Minister falling off the stage. I don't care when it's Peter Don't accidentally kicking your footy to the cameraman. What I do care about is it of course, the Prime Minister lied, remember, went on radio and pretend no, I didn't fall off the stage. No attempt from that.

When it comes to pet it up small things, but it is the way.

were worried about what was going to be happening. There now an event that actually had more rain in certain parts than Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Are the floods that had been thumping, thumping central Queensland. Now the size of Texas is the amount of how much water and how much flood damage is around there. Well, the Prime Minister finally turned up, but it was a week a week after

Peter Dutton was there. Now I thought we had to live in some sort of a scenario where the second even a hint of trouble is coming that the Prime Minister must be there. If not he is not caring. Well, I think that standard's ridiculous, But I also think turning up a week week after the event is taking place is well not good enough. But it didn't. He was there last Monday, and there was a couple of days after we had started talking about what was happening. But

I'm glad that he was there and relatively quickly. Of course, the reality here is that because many of these people are good Queensland folk who probably aren't going to voe labor anytime in their life, and there's not enough population and there wasn't rolling television coverage were the Prime Minister just thought he could put it into the who cares basket,

eventually turning up as he did. But my point is this, The tumbleweeds start rolling when it's a labor politician who's late to turn up to a flood or a fire, but if it's a Libs it's a sign that they don't care. Let's get to the polls. And the latest is striking when it comes to the change that a month has been in Australian politics. Literally the fifth of March is when we were talking about a headline that said that the Coalition was within striking distance of twenty

key marginal seats. Tonight, the sixth of April News poll, Labor extends its pole lead over the coalition and is now edging towards a majority government, not the minority that everyone saw and was basically still the bookie's favorite. But now if they keep this growth up, they're able to improve themselves. Well guess what, there is a chance they

could end up with seventy six seats or more. As for the primary vote, now, I'm going to compare this to the current primary vote which is up on the News poll site, and compare it to where it was at the last election. Labor Liberal Greens exactly the same vote as it was in the twenty twenty two election. So that was one of the lowest primary votes in Labor history. But clearly it was a bad night for

the Liberal Party, losing a whole collection of seats. If that gets repeated, then again there's a level of status quo. But a couple of things worth noticing here, And I want people to start talking about one nation. Now. One nation got five percent at the last Fed election. It is now up two percent nationally one week into a federal election campaign. And that number is pretty significant that

it is now up two points. Now they're going to say, a margin of era means two points up, two points down. But every poll relentlessly tells us that one nation is doing better than it did three years ago. And if this poll is right, there's no change for the Libs, the Nats or the Greens. The conversation becomes preferences, the preferences of one nation, the role of one nation getting

extra Senate seats, the preferences of the other and independent vote. Now, the Palmer vote is not strong enough yet to know exactly which way it's going to go, but the suggestions are that I think four percent or something close to it at the last election. It's now around two the overall headline though, fifty two forty eight. That is after the first full week of campaigning. Now a lot of people are going to say that's it, game over. There's

no way these things turn around. Well, they always turn around, as Peeder Gredlin very correctly showed you after the twenty ten election the twenty nineteen election, often fifty two to forty eight at the start ends up becoming fifty to fifty and then maybe ever so slightly fifty one forty nine. So this thing is not over. But we cannot pretend that the trend is not the Liberal Party's friend. Instead

it is going okay for the Prime minister. Right now, however, let's actually start to drill down a little deeper, because you know, I like to have a look at this, which is Labour's primary vote in terms of key states, because it's not just that it's not an overall national election. It is one hundred and fifty one separate elections, and then of course there's the elections within the elections. Have a look at this now, I'm going to show you

the primary vote from the last election. This was the national vote, the New so Wales vote, the Victoria vote, the Queensland vote, and the marginal seats. Okay, apparently nothing has changed according to news poll. But something has changed when it comes to the Resolve poll. Now, don't worry. You don't have to remember all of the colors and remember all of the numbers. I've done that for you. This is the latest one. Now, this one is polls

that lead up to March. So if we're to believe the past four weeks, all of these poles have got better for Labor, all of them have got worse for the Libs. But only ever so slightly like one up, one down, but that's enough to start pushing you from fifty to fifty to forty one forty nine. And even if it becomes two points, that's where we end up with fifty two forty eight. But let me give you an idea here, and I'm sorry, I'm going to keep this graphic up for a little while because I need

to use mc glasses to have a look here. Nationally, Labour Party down four points since the election. Labour Party down three points in New South Wales, Labor Party down five points in Victoria, Queensland down two points. The Libs up one point nationally, three in New South Wales, two in Victoria, down one in Queensland. The Green's basically the same or up one nationally and in New South Wales.

Pay attention to one nation because they're up two points nationally, one point in New South Wales, two points in Victoria, five points in Queensland. That's really important for Malcolm Roberts who's going for his Senate spot. But as for the Independence, they're up every where, just one point in Queensland, four points in Victoria, six points in New South Wales and

four points as well. So the picture here is essentially big enough drop for it to be significant when it comes to the Labor Party, where the vote is falling anywhere from two points in Queensland to four points nationally five points in Victoria. Now remember we talk a lot about Victoria because the failure of the local state government is really bleeding into a problem for the Labor brand.

So while Labour might be able to hold on to most of what it's got, maybe three out of the four in Western Australia, it might be able to either lose one or pick one up in South Australia. It'll pretty much be the same when it comes to Queensland unless those Green seats start moving around and there are three of those available. A deterioration in the vote in New South Wales will deliver theoretically based on the mats places like Benelong or Gilmore, so there'd be a couple

that would be moving up there. Potentially in Tasmania that seat of Lions, but we'll all wait and see what happens there. But if the Labor vote is down five, the LIB vote is up to, the one Nation vote is up to in Victoria, well we could be talking about maybe four seats on a bad night, five on a really bad night six. But of course the government would be saying that these are March numbers and everything got better for us. So maybe they hold the line

and only lose four seats or three seats. Anything better than that would be certainly close to an overperformance compared to where the Labour Party has been for the past few years because of what is happening in Victoria. So watch this space. This is the week when we are going to start to learn just how many candidates are on all of the ballots right around the country, because after the rolls close, and I believe that happens tomorrow,

then the candidates lock off. Now that's generally speaking, when someone tries to drop some bad news, particularly against one nation. That's what happens at multiple elections. They're not able to drop their candidates or to move them. But barring that one nation in a pretty interesting position. Look for some conversations about that. We should also start to get a bit of a sense this week, definitely next week, but probably this week about preferences. Does Labor put the Greens

last anywhere? Do they put them second everywhere like they normally do? What does it mean when the Liberal Party turns around and puts the Greens last, meaning they could help Labor in a two way contest between Labor and the Greens, a couple of seats in Victoria, maybe some

of the suburban fringes in Brisbane. So ironically, by taking the principal stance against the Greens, the Libs could end up in a scenario where Labour's going to save a couple of seats and while there's no grand difference in the way they're going to vote between a Green and the Labor Party, when Labour's talking about majority versus minority as the most likely game that we're playing right now, preferences are going to matter in the next little while.

Now let's talk about blokes, because one thing that has apparently changed over the past few weeks and certainly over the past few years is the difference in the sex between men and women and which way they are going to vote. Now, there was a very weird little headline on this that isn't necessarily what's inside the numbers. The Dad vote crucial to Labour's polling rebound. But let's have a look at the polling rebound that has been put

in place now. According to this the Labor vote with blokes has gone from twenty five percent to twenty nine percent, the Liberal vote's gone from forty two to thirty eight, the female vote has gone from twenty seven to twenty nine, and the Liberal vote has gone from thirty four to thirty six. So the headline is the dad vote. Well what about the subheadline of women that the female vote has gone up by two points for the Liberal Party in the polling that has taken place. Now again they've

done this to March. We know there has been a change in the past couple of weeks. Again that one nation number. Have a look at the change. Have a look at the Green's number. They are down two points with women that vote again being split in an increase between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party the Independence. Interestingly, at the start of the year they were going okay, they're now ever so slightly back when it comes to

blokes right now, So pay attention, it's all there. We'll break it all down with these two blokes, the guys who of course we talk to each and every week when it comes to the state of the race. None of them Cos Samarus from the Redbridge Research Organization and with Michael Kroger, of course, a legend of the Liberal Party in Victoria. Gentlemen, Hello, lots to get to, lots of data, lots to dive through. Let us deal with

the obvious first, which is the headline. First, Michael, we know things have been getting worse for the coalition or there I say better for labor. But now we go from a Liberal Party lead in newspoll to a trail. Now you've still got a month to go. Those who say election over have never been through an election before. But your thoughts on News poll first, and then we'll go through all of the permutations we normally do on a Sunday night.

range of issues that we know about. And the basic view of people from the Voice onwards was he's not very good, he's not very strong, and it's a terrible government and that reflected in the polls. Now they're considering a different question, which is about the fact that you know, people think, oh, hang on, didn't I just put this

bloke into office. He's only been there five minutes, which is the perennial question that first of my positions get, which is, but we haven't given this bloke much of a go So the electorate to generis they give nearly every prime minister two goes. They haven't gave gos GoF Whitlam two goes in nineteen seventy four, which was really

you know, General SolV them. So the trick for the coalition, the campaign's skill for the coalition and the next four works is to remind people why over the last eighteen months they basically thought this goverment was no good. And you've seen some negative ads starting today in Victoria and federally very good ads pointing out to people hang on, this blow promised, the earth is delivered hell and it's

time to vote him out. So, as I said, I think that pole, I think the pole reflects people thinking, well, hang on, we've just put.

up here and also the others. Again, your thoughts on where we sit compared to your insights about the fact that look, whatever they had lost they have now regained, but they haven't gone forward on where they were in twenty two that being the government.

the News poll. We can see that reflected in our polling we published with the News Limited yesterday and other pulses as well. Flip side to that, the coalition. Okay, so in late twenty twenty two, UAPD registered pulses didn't really remove the question about UOP too, about I reckon the middle part of twenty twenty three, and you really didn't see the full effect of that removal until about

the middle part of twenty twenty three. What happened about time coalition vote started to grow up into the forties, you know, and we well know commenting how they've been able to stabilize their base. Now that's a that's a com' that's really a The reason that happened was because UAP voters were choosing the coalition. Now that Clive is back in the race, three percent that he's picking up in

the polls, it's come straight off the coalition. So the Coalition is now down to thirty six and so the two party preferred vote is favoring labor because of course, once you lose votes to minor parties, you don't get all of the back. So we are still dealing with a very fractured, volatile electorate and of course that's in them before we talk about Victoria.

I think One Nation's offering in twenty five very different than even where it was ten years ago, litt alone, the twenty years ago, littlone, all the way back to the nineties. Because when somebody puts their hand up in a focus group or in one of these groups and says, you know what I'm thinking about one nation, there's a caricature of the one nation voter. But we also know that there is this change, particularly around younger blokes and

younger blokes wanting to be a little bit harder. Have you seen described to me again, have you seen any change in the person who puts their hand up to say one nation? Because that's why I keep talking about this, that if we talk about young blokes and where they might be going, I think a portion, a slice, a little somewhere is going to one nation. That's right.

with the coalition's primary vote at the moment. They're losing these voters if historically got no allegiances to the l ANDP flip side. Of course, the same applies to Labor. You know, they've got a whole bunch of young voters sitting on their pile that equally don't have any law to them. And this is how volatile this next generation is going to be. And why you know, in twenty ten we had eighty odd seats go to preferences. In twenty twenty two we had over a hundre and thirty.

This election is going to be over one hundred and forty and driving that is of course the growth of this generation. Right, So twenty ten there's only like fifteen percent of the voter's roll. They're now up to forty three percent.

right and X is where we are. But basically, if you wanted to put a meat cleaver at the fifty percent zone of the electoral role. It's fifty now basically equal above fifty, equal below. Demographically, yes, the more millennial, but I'm just saying that number there, right, so those who sit wherever you sit, that's the halfway point. Michael. Also, I'm just trying to think about, you know, apart from policy reasons, the type of things where again a younger

bloke might end up in a one nation. Those cartoons have been amazing for years, right, Like they take the proverbial. They've been going for years. I think, if possible, they should be used a lot more as ads during a campaign because at least they're taking the proverbial. But also I remember that conversation that I always bang on about, which was the night before the twenty nineteen election, where

we were talking about preference and preference discipline. Right now, Pauline Hanson is one hundred percent out there saying I can't stand Albo. She's out there saying don't vote Labor. Their game, generally when it comes to how to vote, is just to say, look one for us, and then you do what you want after your preferences are you're right, But what's the mathematical game you play when you see that one nation number. Do you just take the fifty to fifty aud you say it's a bit more sixty forty.

What's your sense of that, because again I know it's fractions of fractions, but that's the game.

so their preferences spray. The voter is probably a conservative voter, but without a direction, they tend to spray their their votes.

stand there. And now that we've got three weeks of early voting, that they're at all of those centers all of those days. The membership makeup of things like one Nation isn't physically big enough to do that. And because they don't have, say, the lower House representation, you don't get people moving from the safe seat to the vulnerable seat. In previous elections, Palmer has been able to find people

that are willing to do it. But obviously when it comes to the teals, if you've got people coming from hardcore places that are safe and they're not involved, it ends up making it look like they've got thousands of volunteers in each and every one of these local seats. That's part of the game that they play. It's part of why they look sometimes a little more popular than

they actually end up being. But also if every second house has got one up, got a poster up, then you start to think, well, that's the way everyone's going. These are the little mind games that play. All right, lads, you mentioned Victoria, I'll give you what you want. A nice juicy chat about Victoria. AD has just dropped by the Liberal Party, and I'm going to say great, good attack Ads. It's just surprising that it's a week in.

But they are hammering home what we know in the polls, which is that the Allen government is a massive problem for the labor vote. And alban EASi he's part of that Liberal camp which will be rolling out on television, not just online.

And I do think some elements of the press gallery in Canberra got a bit of a blind spot about or really how bad it is for the Lobal brand and Victoria.

Is it offensive to Essendon supporters? No doubt somebody will say, with the exclusivity of red and black, what's your thoughts?

in the rest of Australia. So you know, I don't accept that Labour's primary voting Victoria is thirty three or thirty two.

by Labor on maths. I know you blokes, you know like me, spend too much time in the nerdy end of politics. But if you happen to turn on you know, FM radio, what's the sort of stuff you hear from Labor Because.

Now that's going to be less of a problem for the coalition in seats where the coalitions vote is naturally high. So seat like Chisholm where the Liberal primaries are like close to forty just naturally and they can just pick up three or four percent every one. Seat. Where it's going to be problem for them is in a seat like Hawk for example, where their primary naturally is in the high twenties. Labor could drop six seven percent. It

will spray everywhere and it won't be still enough. So I think on a bad day, Labour still loses enough seats to plunge Elbow into minority government. That's if, of course, Dutton doesn't make any gains in any other part of the country. Really bad day, people just wake up that morning when they're voting, whether they're voting early or whether they're voting on the day or election day, and just go, you know what, I'm going to see a very strong message.

And this is where the negative campaign and that ad is actually aimed at, and that is to basically just keep people's attention focused on an unpopular state Labor government. If they are thinking about that government they're voting, they will deliver more seats to the Coalition than we are discussing. If they are thinking about Dutton, and let's say that Labor campaigns worked, the negative campaign gets done, then that

will be down to about three seats instead. So this is the contest we're in.

of trouble, but only dig deeper, ironically to China. Quick break back with more here on Paul Murray Live, Loss to talk about more with these fellas and then can the door to do what the mum's done for a while, Lee Hanson, she's running for One Nation in Tasmania. Hardcore politics on a Sunday night, Thanks for watching, Thank you so much for watching. Started the race Sunday Night where we just get all hardcore about politics and we love

every second of it. Don't forget what a week we've got to here, People's Forum Tuesday, Treasurers Wednesday, and then the battle around Blackout Bowen on Wednesday. That's ahead of well more pub tests, more fun that we're going to be having and must watch TV each and every night. The analysis starts five o'clock all the way through to reader at eleven. So thank you very much for watching

us during this election. It is when we all come alive and we fire up as we do this evening with Michael Kroger, who is just very comfortable as the sort of daylight Savings Dane. He's just got the chill factory's got the puffa ja get ready to go because it's always twenty two degrees at his joint, always twenty two degrees of imagining there with red Bridge, and they've got more info as always coming in the papers in the next few days. Now, I want to talk to

some degree about the gender stuff. Now, I was fascinated by this pull apart that was done by the nine newspapers. Now they put a pole out only last week, so the idea that they were comparing the male female vote to March when in other factors a little up, a little down. I'm surprised that they sort of held the number there. But again because your sense of these things are things as stark as we've seen in other poles at other times, where basically blokes leading to the right,

women leaning to the left. But again, according to this analysis, the primary vote of the Liberal Party is higher than the primary vote of the Labor Party with women. And I thought they were the ones who had the problem right.

not right. And you know, whether these blokes moved or not, I can almost guarantee you if they have morthed, they didn't move to Labor, they would have moved to one nation or uop from from the Liberal Party. And that's that's the only thing that we're seeing that's actually hitting the Liberal Party in a very big way right now is attrition to its right flank. And that is all that's going on.

Are tending to go to the left. There's a breakdown the two party system here Australia's case as identified, but not in America. Whereas we said the other day, ninety nine percent of people voted for either the Democrats or the Republicans. There are reasons for that, but largely the two party system is still at play there. So they're the things I know for certain. But these mine shifts from one pole to a next with small numbers I tend not to take a huge amount of notice of.

I think most policies of the major parties directed towards the electorate as a whole, such as cost of living et cetera, et cetera, because that's where the votes all.

the past couple of years. But he's done an interview over the weekend suggesting that he's going to add I quote hedges bitch bets when it comes to the Greens, which means the preference world where Labor should be putting them last. And maybe a door is going to be open here because if it ends up in a two way fight between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party for his seat, those Green preferences will matter. Now, Michael, you've been strong on this for the past couple of years.

You've said this is one of those seats that's a littanus test. This week is probably when we start to get a bit of an idea about the how to votes that start to come out ahead of voting in just a couple of weeks time. What did you read into hedging his bets?

on at least one occasion. Burns saying he's going to do fifty to fifty is very damaging to him because he'll lose whatever Jewish voters he's got left if he's signed to say to Jewish voters the Dutton position on the Middle East and the Green's position on the Middle East are morally equivalent. That's what he's trying to tell Jewish voters and just other voters in Macnaum.

you know, four or five percent. Add that together, he's probably down. He's probably down six percent.

that actually showed that. And so they're worried about seats like Wills. They're obviously trying to grab the federal sy to Brisbane back and so they've got other geopolitical considerations to play here, and you know, the calculated decision as well. We'll give them as much of a leeway as we can, but at the end of the day, we've got an election to win. And you know, yes, okay, Josh would like to put the Green's last, but we're not gonna

lead him because we want to win Wills. We want to win Brisbane, we want to win government.

find out why next. I was fascinated to see a couple of days ago that Lee Hanson, the daughter of Pauline, is going to be running for the Senate, running for Pauline Hanson's One Nation at the upcoming federal election. She will be doing so in Tasmania. Now. One Nation's done pretty well there, but it hasn't been able to get a Senate seat for a while. Why the Lamby effect? But I reckon with a Hanson on the ballot, it might be about to change. She joins us now from

our Hobart studio. Lee, good luck, congratulations and welcome to the fight.

I'm a mother myself. I had two young children and unfortunately I am concerned about their future and I don't have confidence in the current politicians and the current system that I feel I actually need to put my hand up.

the ones that people like or dislike. Why is that type of representation what Tasmania doesn't need more of?

for some time. And the fact that I care, the fact that I want to listen, the fact that I will be getting out there and understanding beyond my own experiences, and we have solid policies on offer from one Nation and Taylor making them or tailor make tailoring them to the Tasmania needs is what I have to offer, and that's the point of difference beyond any other candidate that's currently running.

one nascent cut. Fuel excise was one Nation's policy, So that will help reduce the cost of living as well. Removing the bureaucracy, the nineteen billion dollar over bureacracy and governance span through siloed thinking in governant bodies as well, so we have a range of policy that will benefit Tasmania. I ask that people take a look on the One Nation website and I will be putting out those messages over the coming days and weeks as well.

vote cards and polling boots. Or volunteer. Please reach out to my email address, which is Lee dot Hanson at one Nation dot org dot au. Mum's coming back down to the state over the coming weeks and we're going to start coming around the state and speaking at venue, so watch out for those dates. Keep an eye out for the media releases as well.