Paul Murray Live | 5 November

From the United States. This is Paul Murray, Live geta Australia.

Welcome to Washington, DC, behind us the capital, and today is the day when the United States will make a decision about what step it takes into the future. An extraordinary moment in time that we are all witnessing. And it's the privilege of my career to be able to sit here in Washington and take you through the start of what is going to be a mega day. History will be made in either direction here Donald Trump, who four years ago was.

Swept away from the presidency.

The assumption after the events of January sixth was that he would have no chance back in mainstream politics. He of course made his way and fought his way all the way back to the nomination, a nomination that now sees him on the precipice of returning to the presidency.

This would be the greatest comeback.

Of the twenty first century politically, and one of the greatest in American political history. On the other side, of course, is Kamala Harris, the sitting Vice president, a person who four months ago was trying to get somebody else elected to the presidency. If she wins, she will of course be the first female ever to lead the free world. Either way, history happens, America makes its choice, the world watches on, and we have got one heck of a show for you.

Tonight.

Rallies took place after midnight. It is just about five o'clock in the morning. It is a lot colder in Washington than it was in Dallas. But they were getting ready all the way in the height before game day and then into game day. This was their final pitch after midnight, after the clock had struck and it was officially election day. First, Donald Trump, are you better off now than you were four years ago?

Because over the past four years, Americans have suffered one catastrophic failure, betrayal and humiliation after another.

He was joined on stage by our friend Megan Kelly, who has said that the Trump campaign, particularly after that Madison Square Garden event, was frankly too broish. They weren't reaching out to women. We'll talk to her again later in the week when the results become clearer, but Meghan decided it was time to take the stage to make it clear that there is a path for women to vote for Donald Trump again as president.

I do want to tell you the main reasons. I am voting for Donald Trump. Number one immigration. He mentioned it, and people like Leake and Raley. I'll be thinking about her tomorrow all day. Twenty two years old, killed in Georgia, a young nursing student by an illegal. I'll be thinking about Joscelyn Nungari, twelve years old in Texas, murdered by two Venezuelan illegals. President Trump closed the border. Kamala Harris opened it by choice. It wasn't accidental. She said it

I'd hate to pretend that I know what's going on in anyone else's head, But do you think Donald Trump's going Why wasn't she.

My vice presidential candidate.

She was phenomenal on the stage. We know how great she uses a broadcast. I tell you what, she's got a future in politics if she wants it.

The great.

Megan McCain part of the final rally of Donald Trump for Kamala Harris.

She had multiple rallies, she was late.

Getting to start to the main one, which of course had celebrities like Lady Gaga and all the rest of it. This was her final pitch before grand final day.

Turn the page on a decade of politics that has been driven by fear and division. We are done with that.

We're done, We're exhausted with it.

Among the celebrities who were there was of course, the woman who sat down and helped her when it came to the Democratic National Convention, sat down and helped her when it came to a video town hall, and hopefully is able from her perspective, to be able to give her the same support that she was able to give Barack Obama during his historic run at the presidency. However,

If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again.

Seriously, seriously, you want to know why people end up either in some cases, storming the Capitol or if Trump wins today, riding in.

The streets of DC.

Literally, the local chemists are blocked up as if there was a hurricane about to run through here. That is because both sides of politics just turn it up to eleven. The media will only try to pretend that it's one side. Well, did you just see what was being said to the potential millions of people who may well be disappointed in either direction, but particularly that message the closing from the Democrats.

All right?

This is how Trump wins. If your people vote in the election than did in twenty twenty, that's going to be good for him. Why because the assumption is that his supporters remained just as passionate as sixteen twenty and twenty four Biden, of course one, but was only able to get there on a massive extra surge of voters

Instead, they'll have a leader and they'll be able to build on it.

Also, if Donald Trump is able to increase even by just a couple of points his ethnic minority vote, well he would be able to start to surge towards winning this election. If particularly young black men and Hispanic voters who want legal immigration prioritized over illegal immigration, that's going to get him there. Now, he also has to crack one of the Blue Wall states. He has to get

How does Harris win the.

Presidential election that plays out across the country and around the world today. She needs women, and she needs more women than Joe Biden got. She needs more women than men to back her in and particularly women of all different ages. There's a lot of focus on the pop stars and young women and women for whom abortion is a number one issue, but she also needs women over sixty five. Now the polls have shown that she does have quite a significant support amongst that group.

Now.

Traditionally people over the age of fifty five they vote Republican, but in this case they may well be heading towards the Democrats. If they do, she will win. The cities, of course, have to swamp the vote that is in the regions. Put simply in population, there are more people that live in a city than live in the outer suburban or regional areas. The way that Biden one in twenty twenty was more people voting in the city than

Now she has to win.

North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona on top of the blue Wall to be able to put this thing away, and to put this.

Thing away in the next twenty four hours.

If it's all down to Pennsylvania and that really is her only path, then we are in four not just a long day, but potentially days of county. But if she can hold the blue Wall, if more women are going to vote than even four years ago, and the dynamics of the city versus the country, that's how she

Why is this really fifty to fifty?

Is this really sort of forty nine point nine to fifty point one?

Yes? Why? Because of the polls.

Now, as we've shown you the polling across the swing states seven swing states, five of them currently are trending towards Trump, two of them are trending towards Harris. Now that would mean that as I said, if he can win a Pennsylvania and she's not able to hold the Blue Wall, then he is going to win this election. If the polls are correct, the averages of the polls, and of course there are dozens and dozens and dozens

Well, of course, what you need.

To understand is that while the electoral college might look like a blowout where somebody gets two ninety three hundred votes, the absolute reality of the situation is the margins by which people are winning these.

States are very very thin. Let me explain that to you now.

Joe Biden won Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. He also won Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. But have a look by the margins total number of votes now in Wisconsin, there were three million votes overall difference twenty thousand, Michigan five point four million, difference, one hundred and fifty four thousand, Pennsylvania almost seven million people, difference less than one hundred thousand. In North Carolina five point four million people were voting Trump on that state

In particular areas.

All right, we'll get back to America in a moment or two's time, including I'll give you an idea about exactly when in our coverage, which is of course well effectively starting right now, but of course picks up again in the.

Morning with the first edition.

It'll be here all day about when poles close and when you're going to start to see some results. But let's talk about the greatest country in the world, and of course that is ours and some of the other news that is around today now. Of course, today was Melbourne Cup day. Congratulations if you were somebody who backed the what's seventy eight to one favorite, well not favorite outsider, And of course it was a day of great drunkenness.

It didn't start without me, did you.

I started three days ago in your poon at Derby Day in Queensland, Queensland.

At the top end. And you haven't stopped.

I haven't stopped. I've had eight hours of sleep in about four days.

But I must I must have missed the bus. You did miss the bus. But I'll tell you what.

The bus doesn't stop until Sunday.

We're going home on Sunday, but don't come for you. Guys got thongs, we got crops. How's that sound, mate?

But the perhaps more significant information, rather than the people who own the winning Melbourne Cup horse, is that, of course interest rates no change. The pain continues swolve. Interest rate rises since how Beneasy became our prime Minister?

Grimm Jim the treasurer.

The pain continues. The media, well this was how they told the story.

Today.

The Reserve keeps interest rates on hold, the only safe bet.

Of the day.

Reserve Bank has left the cash rate unchanged, saying inflation is still too high to give borrowers any relief.

The Reserve Bank has now left the cash rate at four point three five percent for a full year.

So the pain continues.

The banks tell us there's going to be no change until February, and of course that's in and around the time the Prime Minister would like to have an election and change the subject from upgrade Albow. New poll, by the way, showed lots of things today that all of the things that Olbo's done is what Australians don't like. About sixty percent of people don't like all different things when it comes to being an air grade upgrade Albo. They don't like the free upgrades, they don't like the

We sincerely regret and apologize those editing errors in the video clips, including two members of the second Commando Regiment, and that's why we removed the video when it was brought to our attention.

And unsurprisingly, despite the fact that this happened, no one's going to lose their job, No managers, nowhere else accountability of course, when you're on the left, it doesn't apply. Just like a Daniel Andrews when you end up getting a little gold medal, no doubt somebody will get Employee of the month.

Can you believe nobody loses their job. That's pretty serious.

Stuff anyway, well under those that are pushed and pushed hard for truth to finally come out, for it to happen on effectively the National public Holiday of Drunkenness. Pretty low stuff from the ABC. So one more thing about America. Here the poll closing times. So I'm going to do this in Australian eastern summer time. You can do your sums in Queensland or anywhere else around the country, but this is when you're going to start to see closings and then results.

Georgia.

It closes at eleven am North Carolina, eleven thirty am Pennsylvania, Michigan midday Arizona, Wisconsin at one pm, Nevada two pm this morning.

The very latest from the book.

Is is Trump sixty one percent to thirty eight percent chance of winning this thing? The statisticians, they say Harris fifty out of one hundred chances at winning compared to Trump's forty nine exactly the reverse this time again in favor of Harris with the Silver bulletin, despite the fact that when you actually look at their data, it shows that Trump is actually winning all of the significant states that he would need to. But that's how tight they are,

I've believed for the first day we should give a fil a try. I believe America and the whole what needs change we.

Drive from before? Now what happened? We came to zero. Trump is not coming for nothing. Where you're coming for a revenge? Who you're going to vote for? Trumple Harris? Trump? Oh why financialise? That was good? In the end, it all comes down to the economy. That come down to the e kind of Trumple Harris Harris. What do you like about Harris?

I think she's twenty poor?

Poor people.

People say Trump don't people play say trumpet raises against black people.

Don't believe he raised against black people.

I believe he's just trying to make his country about a country.

You know what I'm saying.

We will all find out together watching on as part of a mega coverage here and everyone's sitting out of the park. If you want to keep up with the details, find us on YouTube or obviously go to sky News dot com, dot you or the details. The results will be there. That's your homepage today. Skynews dot com dot au. Ross Greenwood joins us now, of course from New York, where there is so many parts of this story that you are going to be playing out. The reaction to

Well, I'll say what Game Day in New York is going to be really a terrific thing to watch because most of the polling events are in some of the most iconic spots in New York the Metropolitan Museum, for example, the New York Library, which is seen of Ghostbusters for example, if you've never been there. So some of the great buildings in New York are going to be the places where people turn out to vote on this day.

So it's going to be a brilliant day out. And you know, I'm going to tell you that.

You know, even though this is Democrat heartland, there's no doubt there's plenty at state, not only in the congressional races around here, but also there's other that votes that will take place through New York, which leaven be about state. Abortion rights are going to be up for grabs as well, So there's plenty at state for people to vote about.

But as you say, it's interesting just.

To note that the difference mean what the last national polls coming out are about right now swinging back towards Kamala Harris versus the bookies, which are actually right now swinging back towards Donald Trump, and they historically have been a better measure of who ultimately wins this presidential race. So you go to Polymarket you mentioned a little earlier, suggesting sixty one percent to Trump, thirty nine percent to Harris.

But of course it's.

When they break down the individual states to start to see just a little bit of a nuance suggesting that Trump will pick up many of those states, those swing states that you spoke about.

And so that's the key.

New York today is going to be a great place to get a real flavor of.

What's going on. But I want to tell you another story.

While I'm here, Paul, and that is an amazing sort of as you would have picked this up, and that is that migration is one of the absolute keys to this election. People in New York are not happy about the rate of migration coming into here. People who are basically flying across the borders eventually end up in big cities like New York. And so what's happened here is that the mayor Eric Adams has started to turn grand hotels that have been empty into basically shelters for migrants

We're all for immigrants, as long as they're added and a limited amount that we can afford.

There was a good thing for New York and aren't probably not?

Why not? What's your sense about this?

I'man migrants obviously are coming into New York at a large rate at the moment.

Just explain that's well.

I think tomorrow is going to be really important in that process.

All right, so we'll see what happens.

And it's like, oh, you know, the n mbys not in my backyard.

But I don't know, do you know when people suffering in your one? People starving? I'll see what Paul.

I don't know whether you've picked this up either, but the number of people as we walk around the streets with our sky News microphone and stuff like that, they roll up and just tell us how much they like sky.

News in Australia. That's the thing that's really.

Got me about this.

I thought nobody'd know who the hell we were on the streets, but it really has struck me that sky News in Australia actually resonates through our YouTube channel, through the ways in which people can get it there, and that people actually know who we are when we're walking.

Around the streets. They know some of the people are there. So the funny thing is that the messages that we send out that it does get out in America, and of course they see this as being really you know, it's sort of credible information because they are absorbing so much of this as a part of this election campaign.

Yeah, my Heath, there's so much data, so much color, and you know, from lots of different fun as well, particularly I think readers the ultimate star over here when it comes to left, he's losing it, and plenty of other stuff we do. So I dont quickly ask about the betting markets, right, people need to understand how much money is in that has been bet in this thing. I'm looking here.

One point three billion dollars.

Has been put on Donald Trump, slowly but surely, eight hundred and fifteen million dollars on Kamala Harris. But then there's that other betting market called the stock market. It's been going pretty well of recent months, pushed particularly with AI and the AI bubble. When we hear terms like the market has priced in an election result, what does that mean?

Well, effectively, in this case, it's about the fact that the market had priced in a.

Donald Trump victory.

And so really there was a thing called a Trump trade, and what that meant was a whole bunch of stocks that might have done really well under Donald Trump, affecting people piled into the stocks. Now in the last few days there's just been a few wobbles in some of those is in particular that Iowa poll came out suggesting that Kamala Harris could surprisingly win Iowa. It's kind of

Voting for Donald Trump.

And this is where in many ways it's not just unions and left easm, you know, sort of right wingers on the other side. This has come down to the fundamental view of the future of America. And so that goes to the stock market, that goes to the investment markets. And you even talked about, say the betting markets and the big money there. Well, one guy who is in Europe put thirty million dollars into Donald Trump, big old trader,

The way in which people vote.

They were investigating even those things as a part of this whole election campaign. So as I say, it's really narrow, it's pretty fine. And of course we're going to be right across the streets today and round America. It's going to be a great day out just to see Americans go to the poles today.

All right, do me a favor, Go to your nearest diner.

Get some French toast with extra sausage and bacon for me my friend. Wash it down with the coke and feel American on the inside.

Talk to you soon, Ross.

Good only thanks lot, the very healthy Ross Greenwood, who would no doubt not follow that advice.

At all the food.

He's so bad, but it's so amazing orange cheese.

An international expls in and of itself. All right, quick breakback with Moore.

We'll have a chat to our local panel about big news around Australia today, including to the Reserve Banker, the right or the wrong thing when it came to interest rates, and some more details about upgrade Alvo you need to hear. Then two of the most plugged in detail DC insiders. They know the numbers, they know the Trump campaign and they will join us live in a sect here on Paul Murray Life from Washington on.

Election Day in the United States.

Almost half past five in the morning where we are right now. I hope you're having a great time watching us at home. Thank you for all the feedback, thank you for all the support for all of our teams. News team doing a great job and it's so awesome to be doing this in primetime four year as well. Paulittsgudis dot com that I used the way to stay in touch.

All right, He's always here to help.

Stephen Conroy on a Wednesday, nervously hoping that Team Blue is going to magically sweep its way towards power, cheering on a history as he will have just a little tear hopefully in a few hours time. Henry Pike, of course LMPMP. Well, I'm assuming he's a trump Man here, but we will all find out together in the next little while.

All right, let's talk.

About Australia and what happened today. Reserve Bank it ain't going to move all of the big four banks. They say they're not going to be moving on interest rates until probably February. Stephen, You've had plenty to say over the time about the RBA. What about their decision to do nothing today?

Look, seriously, if you have a read of what they actually said, they've done a revision and it's a revision that says GDP is going to be lower than we forecast, inflation is going to be with forecast, unemployment's going to be higher than we forecast. And then you start to look at this absurd concept that they have invented called the trim demean which isn't part of their charter. I mean, there's one economist today saying they're actually in breach of

A final kicker.

We're going to be data driven, which means they're going to wait the extra months to see the actual DOTUT because they've been forecasting so badly for the last few years now, wage grows barely hit four percent. It was going to be a wage price spiral. They just got it wrong, wrong, wrong, and they're too stupid and stubborn to admit their wrong and lower interest rates.

Well, I like what you have to say.

I think many of the wrong wrong, wrong also applies to Treasury, but we'll get to that another time. Here is the bosson the Reserve Bank, Michelle Bullock, saying nothing really.

Today, public demand is offsetting a lot of weakness in the private sector side, so we still, with those circumstances, have inflation coming back to target in a reasonable way. My reading, when I speak privately to the Treasurer and when I hear him speak on television and radio, is that he's fully aware of the inflationary implications of his own policies.

Henry wasn't the Prime Minister telling us on the weekend that the worst is behind us. The only problem is part of the worst is twelve interest rate rises.

Absolutely, Paul, They certainly have left that bed out, and certainly we've got a year of really high inflation, and yes it is coming down a bit. But I think the Reserve Bank is quite right in relying on that

Now, there was an interesting bit of speculation daily Mail. I focused in on this today and it's actually part of the Kamala Harris conversation happening here, which is that taxing unrealized gains, we're put simply something that you own, like potentially things like stocks that they are technically worth more money, but you don't actually have access to it. And presumably this means your house may well be that next level of taxation that is coming away from this government, Henry.

They would be.

Stupid to do it. I could see what the political reaction would be instantly. But where does this come from?

Well, we're already seeing this in government policy, Paul. We've already seen this in the new super taxes of the government's bringing in from won July next year. That's going to be a thirty percent increase on taxes for people over three million dollars in their super fund and that's all on unrealized gains. And this is of course a

Often governments politicians can be accused of being small targets trying to be as bige as possible. If they do this, it will be the politics of the blood red kind.

Wouldn't it.

Look an apologist? Henry? I think I left Parliament before you came in. But you actually didn't answer Paul's question, which is where did this come from? I don't take the Daily Mail as a source of anything other than football news for the English EPL, so I'm not taking it as anybody in government has remotely.

Associated come after yourselves with such a proposal. Peebe, I could come after me early wants. It would be, to use a phrase from Yes Minister, A very courageous government decided wanted a tax real life capital gains and I'm I'm you know Treasury might be having a discussion, but I will about even Jim Chalmers didn't say I authorized this one.

Now, Stephen, I want to talk about whatever the four D CHSS is that the greatest Prime Minister of all time is playing here, right? I get you know politicians, when you're having a bad time, you want to change the subject. He has this sort of you know, years style rally. It's like, oh, I see what's happening over there? Can I do that too? And he decided to do

Please?

Well, I think people are reading in a little too much. I mean, I think the fact that you're now talking about this rather than upgrades is a measure of some success the government. We're desperately trying last week to ovid report through and now we're talking about a rally and whether the hall it was in or not was was appropriate rented. So I think tick one to a strategy of getting you happy to.

Talk about about upgrades. If you want, you want to talk about upgrades, let's get well, let's talk about Penny Wong and a three and a bit million dollar house. Let's talk about Penny Wong and to the Bridget for life. Look, if you want to talk about it, Steve, I'm happy to do it.

Bridget McKenzie's got plenty to talk about in the next few days with the fifteen nine upgrades that you forgot about.

Yeah, all right now, Henry.

The ABC they have now admitted that there was an alteration to the audio that made it seem like more shots were fired in a story which made a pretty gray valigation against Australian soldiers. The apology comes on Melbourne Cup Day. This is when the metaphorical trash is taken out, when you hope nobody notices. Now, okay, we get that that might be when it's scheduled. But what does it say that at that organization when something that grave happens, no one's going to get sacked.

I was really concerned with what I saw today because I saw an apology. I saw them announce that they'd had an inquiry and that no one was to blame. But it just didn't pass the pub test. How could those sounds be added to a video by accident? It just doesn't make any sense. I want ABC to actually explain that to the Australian people in a way that absolves anyone of blame. To me, it just absolutely cannot make sense. There's no other explanation other than they were

Yeah, this is the boss of the other People's money news network.

We sincerely regret and apologize those editing errors in the video clips, including to members of the Second Commando Regiment, and that's why we removed the video when it was brought to our attention.

All Right, I can't let you go without talking about, of course, what is about to happen today, Stephen, You and I quite often we talk about the numbers and this and that and what's going to happen. We're in this very odd situation where most American elections.

You would know going in. You know, we knew that Trump was going to lose last time.

It was speculative in twenty sixteen, but you could be pretty confident if you're a Trump supporter in and around that election, and we know there's blowouts like you know, a Clinton Dole and a whole collection of others the fifty to fifty nature of it, But the book is a lot clearer in where they think it's going to go.

Yeah.

Look, I mean Biden won electoral college with a very narrow margin in a raft of the key states, haven't course, seventy thousand votes had been different in those key states, Trump would have had a second term. I mean, I look at that small booth that has been already voted and counted. The three votes all sort of said everything except for you. People have forgotten that Biden won at six in the last time. So that's that fifty percent

Yeah, I would be.

Look, we all know what I want as a result out of this, but also we're trying to tell people how things are going to happen, why they might end up happening again. Henry, do you think that we know by this time tomorrow Australian time?

Unfortunately, Paul, I haven't been able to pick a winner in the US presidential election for a number of election cycles.

Now have much better. Don't give us one cup winner. Don't disappoint anyone. I certainly what I think.

We will be waiting a while though, unfortunately, which with a bit of an anti climax, And I'm just looking forward to see how you're going to cover that as we get later into the afternoon and evening, and no result is clear, but it will be wonderful viewing.

I'm looking forward to it, good man, looking forward to it? Or I enjoy your time in Parliament, Stephen. We'll be talking many times between now and when we know all right, quick break back with two blokes who know everything about Trump World, but also about the numbers and how they're playing out right now, more from Washington.

Game Day.

The election is today. We have been looking forward to this day for months. I've been looking forward to this conversation from the second winne we were coming here. Mick mulvaney is a former White House Chief of Staff under President Donald Trump Larry Grossman. He is a man who knows inside the polls. He is, of course with the CT Group and their managing director. Gentlemen, welcome to Game Day morning. We're excited, We're.

Ready to go. Welcome to the center of the interest for today. It feels it doesn't and you can feel that right now.

So both sides have made it very clear that they think they're going to win, right right down to the extent where like their campaign directors are publicly releasing memos saying in this state and this voter in this that Harris people did a whole YouTube.

Video explaining how good they are.

Do you think both sides sitting around are trying to push two dots together to find a way to win, or they actually think they're going to win based off their data.

Larry, I think they're both very confident in that they've run good campaigns with the candidates are doing a good job in this home stratch. And how how do you go into a presidential action without being confident unless the numbers show that you're not? And I think it's too close to kyl will know maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow night, maybe in a week from now. But I think both of the campaigns look back at the past week especially

Yeah.

Mick Peyton Navarro, who is of course part of the Trump administration, He's told stories that in and around the twenty twenty campaign that there would be people who would tell the former president what he'd want to hear about numbers as opposed to this is what's really going on right in and around Trump World. Do you think that he is hearing really what's going on or is he just only hearing, Yeah, where Wilson, we're great ninety six point two percent jans of winning.

It is hard to tell the candidate the truth, especially when that candidate is either the former president Nited States or the current vice president United States. There's going to be a little bit of that, but it's always going to be sort of with the sheen of but here's the good news, mister president, here's the good news, missus

Funny talking to people about the election, just in the normal world, not on television, right, which is that it's going to be incredibly obvious after the result about why the result was.

Right, So if Trump lost, it's going to be pretty obvious.

Right, We're going to talk about gender gaps, We're going to talk about maybe a candidacy that to the wider electric was doa after twenty twenty and of course January sixth.

Conversely, if he wins, well, the Democrats were never going to win under Biden.

They were given sort of false hope of a chance here, but the reality of the economy meant they were never going to never going to get out of first gear. But of course what makes it strange on this side is everyone trying to pretend that they have any idea what's happening around the corner and what are the definitive

Well, yeah, I think it's just so closely divided. The neat is that I think you and I are going to be able to dissect this election for almost as long after the election as we were before the election. Were able to go through why Trump last, why Haras last, why the pulsters were wrong, why people did vote, why certain people didn't vote. There's going to be a lot of analysis once this is over.

Yeah, well, Larry, let's get into the pulse, right. I'm not going to ask the stupid question of are they right this time? However they have been wrong twice? Okay, has the polling industry attempted to show working about how it's ever so different, or is the X factor that hardcore Trump is will not pick up the phone, will not respond to the text message, and.

That makes it very difficult to come out with an honest picture.

I think everyone looks at the anecdotes of where the polls were wrong in past elections, whether it was in Wisconsin in the past where there was a huge Trump turnout at the last minute, and so the polsters themselves are going back and looking at the things that work and the things they might.

Need to change.

But all the polls are within the margin of error. You know, of course you have these outliers from time to time, but everything is still within one point two point So you have to question. And then you look at twenty sixteen, you look at twenty twenty, which was within the margin of errors in most places, you have to think that the poles are pretty close, just because they're so much alike such in every case.

And I'm also inevitable for all of these polls, right, which is if you miss, so does your reputation, meaning in four years time, anyone paying attention to what you're trying to say.

So a lot on the line for sort of the industry. You know they're absolutely wrong about that.

This is so too Yeah, in this business you can be wrong most of the time and you can still have your credibility.

I'm wrong more than I'm right on it.

It's like the weather, the traffic.

Everyone wants that snapshot in time. Yeah.

And also and also it's this scenario too, where going into you know, the big game, Super Bowls, Grand Finals, whatever, you can obviously come up with every series of scenarios about what may happen and if this does happen, and if this state and that person in this demo, But of course you don't know to you know that's safe keep watching. Well, we try to have that conversation on the tilly Larry, what of the data that is out

I think if you look at the early voting, which is a telltale of enthusiasm, enthusiasm either for a candidate or against a candidate is really important. But we don't

I'm looking at something a little bit different, which is new registrations, a little different piece of data. In western Pennsylvania, Republicans are up and other parts of the country, young single women are up, and that to.

Me sort of gives an indication as to where the energy is.

To Larry's point, if Kamala Harris wins Kamala Harrison, keep Ruskin asking me.

I'm sorry, I'm with you.

Well, so did the president for the entire time that he was advised.

Yeah, that's why if she wins, there'll be a lot of discussion about whether or not the Taylor Swift endorsement actually counts, because ordinarily celebrity endorsements don't count, but that one celebrity is so powerful within that one demographic group that we may be talking about that a couple of days from now, could we also.

Talk about Yeah, something that's strange for Australians is that, because it's a non compulsory voting system, you need to excite people up to turn up. Now. I understand that there's many ways to do so, but to me, it feels like we are right out on the edge. When Oprah Winfrey last night, Harris Rally says, vote.

Because there's a chance you may never get the chance to do so. Again.

For all the attacks and all of the eye rolling at what Trump has to say, why don't the Dems.

Have a cop it for things like that, vote like your life depends on it.

That's ridiculous, it is, and I guess it works because they've done it now every year since two thousand. I wrote a paper here in the Hill newspaper a couple weeks back about how the Democrats had referred to every Republican since Reagan in some fashion, tying them to Hitler.

That includes, by the way, Mitt Romney, of all people.

So after a while, you do wonder if it falls flat, and you do wonder if half of the country looks at it and says, you know what, I don't like Donald Trump, but I also don't like that crap. I'm voting for the guy just to sort of pop my thumb, and those folks.

Are So do you think that I'm going to ask you about who's going to win unless you want to offer something up. But in terms of Trump and how he presented himself in that last week, right, I agree with what Meghan Kelly said about the Madison Square Garden rally too blokey right to mail.

I think that when she took to the stage, there was.

Almost like, Wow, you've got a future in politics, right, The clarity of the way that she spoke, and certainly being able to reach out the way that the electorate's working. We know that, Okay, this is a great difference between men and women, but the reality is you compare it, it's the same margin as twenty twenty right, ever so slightly, but it's not like there's this massive twenty five point

Then why are you doing four rallies a day.

He does it because he drives energy from it.

He's a true extrovert. He has to do it. He can't sit home and do nothing. He must do this.

But to your point, I don't think either of them really added any votes in the last week. I think they both sort of stumbled to the finish line. He never really did very well after the.

Madison Square Garden. If anything.

Fine, I don't think her closing argument she can't sell hope and change like Barack Obama can, and she's trying to sell to Trump as a threat to democracy.

I always thought that.

Was one of the weakest Democrat arguments. I sort of feel like they're both limping towards the barn, just trying to see what happens.

To name Larry, the sense of a change election, right, we know that the country desperately at one point wanted anyone, But will they have the opportunity to at least change half of that?

I noticed in Kamala Harris's final.

Adds, it's all sort of a new way forward, which is sort of code for change. But how can you be arguing the change conversation when, of course you are the co pilot of the plane that is heading towards the.

Mountain of the data and the polling that's around.

Do we have any insight into who they think represents change.

I don't think so.

I think obviously she's served as vice president for the past four years, and she's certainly now the standard bearer for the Democratic Party. So there's going to be things that will be a continuum. But she is her own person. She will be a different president, and I would imagine that we will see things some on the margins and some very different going forward. It's hard to predict because each president is their own individual character and they'll bring

To keep in mind, at any given time during the four year term, I'm not talking about the elections, So I'll just pick a random day in the middle of a four year term.

Two thirds of America doesn't know who the vice president is. Yeah, okay, so this is the point, right.

So literally four months ago, the Daily Show was doing skits about how weird her speech was right four months later Obama in a pantsuit, right, Like, I don't look and you try to distract people from their own circumstances and emotions. But I've got to say, my sense of anyone voting, regardless of what country you're in, you do make this sober assessment. You can't sort of froth people up.

You do. But here's what's different. I think about this, and curious to what Larry thinks.

Most elections in this country, selections everywhere, binary choices between you and me, between Larry and you.

Whatever. I don't see. I'm done for Larry. I don't see that. I don't see this.

With Donald Trump, twenty twenty was a referendum on Donald Trump. Twenty twenty four is a referendum on Donal Trump. You're not voting for Kamala Harris. You'ither voting for Donald Trump or against Donald Trump. And that's a unique dynamic I think in our system.

Yeah, good point. Is that is that true?

I think it's totally unique. And if you look at the big word about this election is about enthusiasm. Yeah, and you have two different enthusiasms that you have to focus on. One is the enthusiasm against him, and one is the enthusiasm for her. And if you had to put those two things in the balance, the enthusiasm against him would outweigh the enthusiasm.

For good stuff.

But as a Democrat, people are people are excited about her because she's not him, because she's.

Not because he's not him.

We'll think of the block who is going to be sitting in angrily watching the television who does not on the ballot.

Thank you, let's do appreciate it. Can you look forward to it?

Don't forget you coverage all dialogue on scott News and make sure the homepage is scotten New dot com dot au.

It's game day, Election day in the United States. H m hmm.