From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live Today, Good evening. Haggod, was that West Tiger's win? How many did that Saturday? Right? Haggard? Was that Tiger's win? Okay? Obviously millions of people are not feeling great today, rough night last night and trying to process exactly what went wrong,
what the future may or may not look like. Can I just say at the start of this show, at the start of this next phase of the journey that the country goes on, and the journey that we've been on now for more than fifteen years, this next phase is not in any way about going to be criticizing what we believe. Okay, Will the Greens drop a want for free dental because Adam Bant may or may not lose his seat? Of course not. There are fundamental things
that we believe in. There's a fundament into worldview that we have and it's one that you have every right to hold. The conversation that clearly has to happen. Will happen is to talk about the vessel with which millions of people trusted with their vote yesterday and its capacity to be able to harness that support and grow it into areas that clearly it has lost over a long period of time. Like all good friends, you have to tell the truth, and sometimes those truths are going to
be uncomfortable. But I'm going to make this promise right now, this program, this station will continue to do what every media organization in the country should have as its central purpose each every day, which is to hold powerful people to account. Because a government wins a majority of one seats or one hundred seats does not mean you're never
allowed to criticize them. It doesn't mean that you give them a free parts on every piece of legislation that they introduce, and that you won't focus on the people who are inevitably left behind when a line is drawn this way or that way when it comes to policy. Now, something that I have focused our show on over the past few years is to always give you as much data as possible. So if we've been following these weekly conversations,
there is no surprise about the result. There is a surprise, of course, about the magnitudes, and that's demographics and a whole bunch of stuff that I'll bore you with later. But front and center, this show, this program, this station will do what it has always done and on this program and me as a host, I will show you the data from the Bureau of Statistics that tells us
how many people are working multiple jobs. I'll show you the data from the Bureau of Statistics when the inflation numbers come out that while the headline's going to be good, the amount of money that you're having to pay over insurance has gone through the roof. When there's a report that tells us from the OECD about how our classrooms are some of the most disruptive in the developed world,
I'm going to talk about it. When the napland results tell us that a third a third of Australian kids I'm not hitting the marks of basic literacy and numeracy. I'm going to talk about it now. Will we of course find funny clips of people we disagree with saying and doing stupid things, you bet you, But also we're going to have the conversation that we have had on
this program for fifteen years. And I always talk about how I try to in putting the show together and in sitting in front of the microphone each and every night, is to try to be the most honest show on television and by that I mean, when I'm pissed off, you'll see it. When I'm happy, you'll see it. When there's good news to tell you, I'll tell you it. And when there are tough truths to discuss, we will
do it. I am certainly and absolutely have never been arrogant enough to believe that mine is the only voice in the world, and therefore I'm right about everything. Like any diet, you need lots of ingredients, perhaps for me a few less nuggets, but you get my point. So I get it. Millions of people are really upset today. But the joy of our democracy is regardless of whether you are a person who got the result that they wanted or the one that didn't. We all love this joint.
We all want it to be better, and that's why we get annoyed when we see the signs that it is not. I have gone on and on and on and on and on and on and on during the cost of living stuff about three million people being this close to homelessness. That's the point that is just as valid the day before the election as it is the day after the election. So let's go on the journey for the next little while of trying to work out
what's next. Let us not delude ourselves, and if everyone's just a bit more like us, then everything will be awesome. Let's be serious about how our country has changed. And one of the things that again I've shown you is about the demographics, about the difference about under fifty over fifty male and female, and tonight in the state of the race. We will get into all of that in
a moment or two's time. We'll also have a chat to Tom Connell about the latest results which are showing some pretty tight races in some of the seats that people had claimed last night. Is a privilege to talk to you every day, one I will never take for granted, and one that I hope to repay with honesty, enthusiasm, and at times a little bit of entertainment. So let's get to the five things not about this election, about data. But let's get too so what's next. We all know
what happened last night. I will save you playing five hundred times over speeches you've already heard that have already no doubt probably made you feel a little weird, but still Prime Minister takes his victory lap today. While I was in the room last night in Brisbane one of the most lovely moments. And remember when Kim Beasley lost in two thousand and one, there was a lot of people in his concession speech you said, oh, if that guy had turned up, that'd be the guy who'd win
an election. That's not the point I'm going to make here, but I loved that there was a really human dad moment where the kids turned to him and he turns to the kids. Not for the politics of it all, but for people who knew that their dad may have woken up yesterday with the hope of being the Prime Minister, but ended last night as a person who is now
out of Australian politics. To Peter Dutton, to his wife Kiri Lee, and to those beautiful children they have had to share their father with the entire country for a long time, in fact, for most of their lives. They now have dad back, and I look forward to continuing a friendship with a man who I well and truly do admire. In terms of the gravity and size of things. Again, I could sit here and show you this chart and that chart, but you know all of that. You've seen
all of that. If you're watching now, you were watching every minute of the coverage last night, and I loved our panel and I loved their insights. But I've got to say probably the person who, with good humor and his traditional smile, an old school labor man, Joel Fitzgibbon. He made a point about where things are stark, a little bit frightening, but it's also true.
What do all these people have in common other than the fact that they led the Liberal Party at some point Menzies, Holt, Gordon, McMahons, Nevin p Cock, Howard, Yusen, Downer, Nelson, Turnbull, Abbott and Dunton. They all represented seats the Liberal Party no longer represents. Thank god, they've hung on to one.
And Cook that's pretty wild. That's pretty wild, and he's not rubbing sold into the wounds. Is diagnosing the obvious again. Tom Connell, who was the first call at the best call it the man who is top of his game, top of his game, knows it inside, knows it outside, and will always take a random phone call from me, what about this? What about that? Have you thought about this?
What's going on there? Tom Connell is an absolute star, absolute star, and he's going to move his screen a little closer to the man Cave'll talk to him in a moment. Who's time? State of the race? The last one for these Sunday nights that have gone all the way through. But obviously Cos Samarus from Redbridge and Michael Kroger are part of the PM Live family and we will have a chat in such a fashion in a
couple of moments time. So what's next now? Again, I could go through five different things about what happened here in demographic and I'll get to all of that. But you've got to look forward, and you've got to be positive, and you've got to be pragmatic, and you've got to be realistic. So I'm going to ask some questions that maybe I don't have the answer to the day after, but I think is the beginning of the conversation that needs to be had about the political vessel under which
millions of people voted for yesterday. Number One, I want the Liberal Party to take time to be honest about what happened. I don't want a quick review in and out couple of weeks one press conference. I don't want the people at the front of the movement to think that label will eventually drop the ball. And the last person standing will one day become the prime minister. No, it's going to require a lot more work than that.
I'd love to see the Liberal Party have the honesty and openness to not just have one review, but what about multiple reviews, not just chapters inside the reviews. What about about one done by a person under fifty about the issue of under fifty? What about suburban inner suburban ideas out of suburban ideas as well? I should say there should be multiple people of those different flocks who
tell us their views of things. Why not invite the living former prime ministers not to make a submission, but to make it public about what they think the future of the movement is. There's no point or purpose in constantly talking about the numbers that came in on Saturday, but they are the reality and the political reality that we will be living with for the next three years.
I also think that the organization should look to some elements of the corporate sector here, and you're going to maybe think, oh, a little bit lefty here, Paul, No, no, no, there are people who work for massive corporations in this country who are experts in change, and that isn't about diversity, quota, special mentions of this and everyone humming at the sun at midday. These are about people. These are people, I should say, who have incredible insights not just into human
behavior but organizational behavior. And yes they are not of the political flock, but I think there's an opportunity because at an organizational level, and again I bare you by going through it, but think about it. In New South Wales they couldn't fill out a form to get the councilors nominated. In Victoria they couldn't fill out a form to argue the redistributions. There's how many in Western Australia. Queensland's going well at the state level, but clearly at
the federal level we saw what happened. There were seats of Labor Party wouldn't have even privately thought were possible that ended up changing. So there's lots of different areas of expertise and there are lots of people, and there's millions of people who they are able to reach out to, not just a conversation inside quick tick and flic go go on the attack from day one and will eventually
tear him down. That's not going to work. Bill Shorten, Yes, unsuccessful labor leader, he talked about how you did you fix your party, work on the policy, then turn your attention to an election. That's the sort of stuff that I think this organization needs to deal with. Number two in the five things that I think are the insights into the future, don't just learn a lesson, but be
seen to learn a lesson. Now, Australian politics is basically one third Labor, one third Liberal, and one third who are voting for something else, the majority of which are preferencing the Labor Party. Whoever the leader or leadership team is. I hope that in the first months after this election that they go and hold public town halls in every single seat that they lost, not so people can yell, not so we could gnash our teeth and get the
win about, but to hear people. Hear people who were disappointed and went off to the right, disappointed and went off to the left. And no, you don't turn around and say, well, you know, Jenny and Bendigo had this one incredible idea, let's change everything. So Jenny from it's not about that. But slowly but surely, once you have a meeting here, and a meeting there, and a meeting over there, and one back there, and one over there and one off to the side, and yes, the press
will be there. You'll be able to slowly but surely see there two, four, six, eight ten ideas. And then you put that into the process of an organization that's serious about change, that's talking to people about change. And I think that that's how you can modernize. I think that's how you reflect the changes in our country. The third one worth talking about it you've got to meet the people where they are.
Now.
People who think the politics about an arm wrestle and it's only two sides and that's it. Well, we're not in a cocin Pepsi world anymore. We're not in a Fosters or VB world. Where in a world when have you ever been to a bottle shop. There's a lot of choices out there, and yes, there are two primary ones when it comes to the choice of government right now, but you can't always assume that that's going to be the case. In a place like the UK, the Reform
Party at the council elections and the system's different. It's voluntary voting and it's first past the post, but they got more people elected to more councils across the entire UK than any other party that was running, and they only had just to bear few members of parliament in the Federal Parliament. Nija Faraj is still part of the Polmurray Life family and he'll be back with us sooner rather than later. But he was focused for the past few weeks on a campaign and on a campaign about
being a happy warrior. So again, it's about the people you talk to too. Now you're going to see a lot of inevitable analysis from people who are commercial or ideological rivals, who say, oh, you don't talk to this person, you should only talk to this people. And there's not a strategy of winning that you know. If you do a weekly appearance on radio national, everything will be okay. No,
you go everywhere, you go everywhere. Whoever the next leader is, they should be on those breakfast TV shows every single week. Whoever the leader is should be offering opinion columns regularly in multiple media outlets, of which seventeen people who work for those media outlets could turn around and write the response. But you're still out there. You're still out there talking to maybe even a room where ninety percent of people
may disagree with you. There's also the worlds of social media, non traditional media, sports, media, entertainment, meet there's lots of different places to go, FM, breakfast radio. And I know that I'm not breaking news that you need to do these things, but you don't need to do these things three weeks before an election. You need to do them for the full three years to be part of that conversation,
no matter how far away you are from power. And also, I think that this idea about meeting people where there are, and this is probably as sharp as I'm going to get tonight, which is it's not about putting voters through purity tests or the people that you talk to through purity tests, and unless you fully pass, you know you must be this blue tobaccos. Well, the real is a thirty is red, to thirty is blue, and a thirty's
question mark at the moment. The other thing too, about meeting people where they are is the people generally speaking, they wake up every single day with a smile on their face. The sun comes up, and how good is it be a happy warrior. Perfect example of that is the great Nigel Farage, who is going to be on the show on Tuesday Night, Number four empower the next generation.
This does not mean that the Liberal Party has to automatically go, oh, if we run lots of people looking like gen Z, then gin Z will vote for us. All the millennials will vote for us.
No.
One of the coolest things that happened last night was as I was about to leave the room, it took me about an hour to leave the room because I had these great conversations with young party volunteers. Half a dozen here, half a dozen there, half a dozen next to where we were broadcasting. And I hope that those voices are not just the soldiers who go and do
what head office says. I hope that those people feel like they are part of a process where you're able to say, well, my friends say this, and my friends say that again, not so you just flip and flip and flip, but so you've got real insight. I'd like to see a greater prominence in the policy conversation about the next generation of voices, which does not mean that
the current generation or older generations are irrelevant in the conversation. No, no, no. The coalition of getting yourself to half of the country is that there's lots of different networks that make that up, and one should not have more value than the other. My view is in this process, if done right, you have an ability to have insight into each of those networks, respecting the people who have won and done before taking some risk with the people who think that there might
be a different way of doing something. Every now and then, and finally, most obviously for the Liberal Party, everything is on the table. Everything is on the table. Whoever the next leader is, I think they should basically stand up as soon as next week and say, okay, reset button. Every policy we took. The election gone will decide whether we do or don't recommit to those things. And that's not a conversation about values. That's conversation about policy. You've
got three years to have that conversation. Obviously, with people voting early, you have to have the big ideas out early. But everything's on the table about how to get more people to run and the things that you talk about, the branding, the logo, all of it. Everything should be on the table. So again I say, as one of the millions of people who are disappointed by the result, we continue because when we give up is when they
truly win. All right, let's get to Tom Connell, the man who, as I say, I cannot blow enough smoke and I cannot pump those tires up hard enough. In fact, I think his tires should be so big that they could go onto one of those mining trucks that we saw in Cowgoli last week. Tom Connell, he's a mate, he's a colleague, and he has been kicking as this election. Mate. I know you don't love the public the public praise, but congratulations on the night made.
Very generous.
I mean I bumped into a couple of people at the hotel and they said, oh are you Thomas said yeah. They said, do you know Paul Murray? So you know we all know really where the Sky newsans sit out there.
It's all the family. We love you, we love you. Okay, let's get through some stuff. Latest count now, obviously labor, you know there's still plenty on the table for them to push a little bit higher. What did say one day do because we've got to give credit to the Electric Commission. They actually did have a look into some postal voting today and that's tightened a couple of races.
Yeah, it has.
Let's go through the tally first of all, and where we're at. So this is pre election Labour seventy eight. I want to draw some attention to here Green's four independent, four climates two hundred and six. So when we go right now to the current count Labor eighty seven, pet Trees, the other one that's fallen today with some certainty Coalition thirty eight.
Look, I think they're going.
To win probably three or four more, depending on how things go. Look over here at the moment, the Green's still on zero confirmed.
I think they will.
Win two at least at this stage, but nothing is actually confirmed. The other independent there it Tally Andrew g is set to win Claire. We're just seeing who might finish second or third. And that's the other interesting story I think about this, how many contests are turning into tight ones where we might see an independent of some flavor finishing top two. So Goldstein right now, and I'll
go to that in a moment. You can see climates two hundred ahead in that Monash could be an independent and second Bean is an independent and second Bean in Canberra, Paul.
That's the margin that Camber that Labour has.
There we go to the next page, the next to a Liberal Labor contest, but Bradfield is obviously a Climate two hundred contest. Flinders could end up being Climate two hundred and second. Menzies is a mess and could have an Independent and Fremantle cap Hewlett running very close there as well. The next page I mentioned as well Andrew Clare and Independent. So this could be the other part of the story. The next election, when we get that pendulum, there's going to be a whole chunk.
We'll see how big the cross Bench is.
I think it will be a similar size, maybe even a little bit bigger or a similar size to that sixteen, but there'll be another whole number of seats where they'll be in the two candidate preferred if they run again next time around. So I think that's something really worth thinking about as we think about how much our sort of electoral system and someone has been upended. I wanted to go here, well here i Ama and Marie at Goldstein. I wanted to tell you why Goldstein has changed today. Essentially,
Zoe Daniel thought she'd won last night. This is the margin right now at this stage we don't worry abot that match swing, and so on we go, who's leading, how many votes Zoe Daniel is at the moment about ninety.
Votes ahead of Tim Wilson.
The problem for her is the postal votes that are coming in right now. So here are the postal votes. This is what's come in so far. About ten thousand have come in two party preferred.
Again, don't worry about the swing.
There's a three thousand vote difference to Tim Wilson's advantage. On the postals, there will be about twenty thousand postal votes. Twenty seven thousand applications were issued. You know, we apply a rough for melody rate, not to boy your viewers, but there'll be about another ten thousand, so basically he'll go three thousand ahead last time around Zoe Daniel on the rest of the vote to come that's absent declaration. Pre Pole and Provisional only won by about six hundred.
So I'm just going to look at one more booth to make sure it's still flowing that way. But I don't see a way back right now actually for Zoe Daniel, so just a little bit hesitant because of the way pre Pole and postals gone in this election, and they can be a bit acceptive early.
But it looks like he'll clearly.
Get in front and Zoe Dane you won't be able to make it back. So we're just pause and be a little bit wary because it's not going to change election right now, but it looks like that will be the one climate two hundred seat that will actually fall. The other really interesting one is the seat of Melbourne. So this has been a tricky one because the call by the AEC they have to pick before there's a single vote who will be the candidates, and they didn't
actually initially pick Labor. Well it is Labor. Now look at this margin right now. Don't get carried away by this margin. It's very early on in this count in terms of the match two pp right now it's going to be a match, a much closer contest.
So right now our system is thinking the projected tally.
These are just raw numbers coming in, so it's a bit seat of the pants. The projected tally will have Adam ban On about fifty point five percent.
In other words, it's far too early.
So this is very early on the two party preferred and we just need more votes to come in have any sort of an idea where that contest has gone. So they're redoing account.
Basically, can I just quickly ask about the pace of count in Melbourne, where again lots of places and lots of type places. Is it a slightly slower pace that's coming out of that city And is that because there's this particularly large number of people who might have been in Brisbane for magic round.
Yeah.
Well, when you're somewhere else, you have an absent vote, so that shouldn't affect it.
You know, if you go off and you cast an absent.
Vote, that just means the absent bucket is bigger. I have noticed today and I know some of these prepole booths are getting really big in Melbourne fifteen thousand and so on. So the issue is the bigger the booth along it is the count. We were waiting for one today. In fact, in mensies today, Paul and I thought that there was a possibility that might just get a little bit closer, and it has become today. This was four percent and five percent last night. It's come into one
point eight percent. But on the current numbers, the postal catch up, you can see the gap between the two is a little bit less than three thousand, and that's going to be the problem for Keith Wallerhan, I just want to see one more batch of because my understanding is he ran a postal a direct mail campaign this time he didn't last time. Sometimes late that means they can break really well. I don't expect they will. I don't think he'll win that. And the problem at the
moment is the way those postals are flowing. So think about that gap. Three thousand or so was the gap. You've got ten thousand postals in so far he has made up what thirteen hundred votes, So if there's there is eight thousand votes, thirteen hundred votes he's gaining. Actually that's quite interesting, So that's a better postal. There's actually more votes here. Then when I start the ball, so start bigger catch up. So I'll go and crange some
more numbers. That's a bigger catch up than he was getting because the first four thousand he caught up about three hundred, So the next what four thousand, he's caught up more like a thousand.
That could get him closer.
Look, that won't breage the gap on those current numbers because it's not there's not a heap of postal in there that will get quite tight. So that will end up being the total two party preferred on this seat will end up being sat more like fifty point five at this rate, and he needs another sort of increase in post will be a competitive but I'll tell you what, I'm going to keep a eye on that one.
Yeah. Can I also ask I've always wanted to do this. Can I ask to have a look at the seat of Bradfield, because again, you know that there's all sort of all the news websites, and then there's the data that you're getting the AAC. Your computer is going to be more powerful than my laptop. Right Apparently that's now under one thousand votes right now, it's assumed that that
is running the Teel way. But again the Prepole and Postal conversation, if that's at around one thousand, that's interesting.
Yeah, it is. Let's have a look.
That's well, that's about eighteen hundred at the moment right now, eighty percent countered. This is always going to be just a case of what vote is to go. I don't think there'll be Prepole left let's double check. No, that's an EAV that's hearing assisted, so they tend to be you know, fifty votes. Postal is the main one left and absent. Absent can actually trend back towards climate two hundred. So you want a lead of five hundred if you're liberal. Okay,
so seven thousand in trending pretty well. Fourteen hundred she's made up so far.
I think that is going to be quite tight.
So I'll go and see exactly how many postals from memory in Bradfield there would be enough to get Giselle Capterian back into the lead.
Just then she needs the hope.
To hang on when the absent come in, and I'll start to come in tomorrow and Tuesday. There's also funny votes called declaration pre pole that's when you vote early, not in your electorate, and provisional when you've got to prove who you are.
So this is what these things can get down to later on.
Provisional is very small, but absent can be a decent amount of votes fifteen hundred two thousand or so, so you can get a decent lead if they sort of break one way on them.
This is amazing. It's like human human Google, human check GPT, where I can just ask Tom and Tom will do the work for us. I love it. I love it all right, let's because you've had a long time, so don't want to hold you for too much longer. But can you give us the quick sweep when it comes to the Senate because the question there is obviously labor is going to end up getting Like in Queensland it was they got remember one at one election, that'll end
up clearly getting two Victoria. They could end up, you know, he be a little bit higher. Give us an idea about because basically the last spot, so we're looking here at your one nations or your family firsts or your trumpets.
Look, I think the two.
Most relevant things obviously who the makeup is, who goes out one nation will be interesting watch. But Labor effectively have twenty five to start with out of the ones we know they'll get here if they can make up three, they get to twenty eight and the Greens will get eleven. That would mean Labor and the Greens pass legislation by not talking to anyone else. I think that's probably the most relevant status. Like, so can labor make up three? So Queensland, top line here is how many were up.
Bottom line is the quota, So you can already see labor makes up one there, that's simple two to the LNP one of the Greens. One nation's in a pretty good position to get that position and win it back.
Courtesy of Malcolm Roberts.
New South Wales is interesting now so far on these numbers, if they held, you'd say label will make up another one two point six to two quotas Liberal Nationals two Greens won, but Labor well ahead of one nation. But so far this amount thirty seven point five percent. That's well above what they're getting at a state house level, and the amount of voting here at the Senate is
about thirty percent. In other words, the vote could actually drop off for Labor and we're we're not going to say, oh, you know, this is locked in.
If these numbers end up like this, Labor would win one.
But if it comes down then they get into a battle with one nation would be their problem. Liberal Nationals as well, they're not going to get above two. Obviously Perin Davy was third on the ticket, so the Deputy Nationals.
Leader will lose her seat as well.
South Australia and Malanowski's power perhaps is powering Labor here.
So two are up two point six to two.
They're a pretty good chance of keeping that because I think this is more representative of the sort of.
Vote they're going to end up with in South Australia. So two will end up Liberal, one Green, two Labor.
I think Labor would get the third at this stage over one nation.
Again, wait to see though.
Because if that gets a bit closer, if it's point four to five versus point five to five, you do often get minor parties preferencing and helping out.
So Labor's in a decent position.
Now we'll see where the vote goes Tasmania to finish with as well, Paul. So we're going to see two Labor, at least one Liberal, at least one Green, two more up for grabs.
Where do they go.
Labor could get one, Liberal could get one, Greens could get one or Jackie Lamby.
But in other words, she's not assured right now.
Of returning waiting for more vote, not calling this right now, but she'd be very vulnerable right there trying to win off point four to six given that relatively even spread elsewhere.
So that will be a watch.
I still think, you know, depending on how things go. She's been a pretty strong force in Tasmanian politics, so she's got that recognition when you get to that preference element, but not a strong position to be in right now, so we'll have to wait. They press a magic in the Senate in a few weeks when we find out everything.
But we will get closer to knowing as we get more count in the next few days.
Tom, that could be the favorite fifteen minutes I've done in fifteen years. I love that. I love the chat, I really do. Thank you, mate, Congrats again. I will see you all the day and we'll chat again later in the week. Thank you, Tom Connall. How good is he? How good is it? I'm telling you the ability to get all that picture and you're still seeing on the Sunday night, what's sort of being counter or maybe back
maybe this way? I love it. I love it. We love the numbers of an election, regardless of which way they go. All right, quick break back with more. Let's get back into the final of the state of the race, because we know the race is over. What are the insights, what are the positive conversations, and let's talk about some polling mistakes, including what was being whispered into the liberal parties here. Want to see good? How Good's nerding out
with your numbers out. That's what we should have called that segment. God love Tom Connall. All right, let's get into it right now, fellow number nerds. None of them cost Samaras, who congratulations to his organization, Red Bridge absolutely nailed the changes, the Democrat all of it right. That's a really hard thing to do. Congratulations to you and your colleagues. The wonderful Michael Kroger again, one of the
millions that are disappointed with what's happened here. And we'll get into the future and all the rest of it here. But how are you the day after mate?
Well, we've been here before, Paul is the answer to that. So incredibly disappointed, disappointed for some really good candidates and MPs who have lost, and very disappointed for Peter Dutton. But you saw the best of Peter Dutton a bit late, a bit late. His concession speak last night was what it doesn't it? I mean, I don't know, dun't all that well, to be honest, but what a class act he is. That was That was a that was a
class performance by Peter Dutton. For goodness sake. You know the guy, the guy's an absolutely quality human being and you know regrettably we won't see him as prime minister, but he joins a long pantheon of people. It would have been great prime minister of this country.
But that's the way they rule. It will turns mate.
All right, let's get into again keeping a nerd out on some of the numbers here, because it was fairly obvious about whether the result was going to be the conversation of minority majority was the outside expectations then once it becomes clear majority and obviously there's a way past that. Now, was there a particular result or a seat that as an old school party guy and now the sort of external data guy where he went, wow, that's pretty big. Mine would be the labor result in Queensland.
Yeah, that's right correct. I mean our Casey's track was tracking those seats so like long moon forward, and it was showing pretty good numbers for Labor and I thought, look, it might be a data operation. But we thought no, no, there are our numbers. We're going to publish them. And when they foul, I thought, well, okay, geez, something's going on here.
That's pretty big.
And it's as Queensland seats that took me by surprise. Everything else was as I expected, you know, means's was going to because it was going to play out like I did in Melbourne and Deacon and Goldstink could go back to Tim Wilson and I think it will.
You know.
And Labor was going to be okay in seats in Melbourne, which you know the College were hoping to get because we saw a very significant swing to labor in that stay. But it was Queensland that took me by surprise in a very big way.
Yeah, I mean certainly. Again, you know, we know that when an independent gets re elected, get ready that they have had their feet in wet cement. They are there, all right. We saw with Wilkie in Tasmania, Sharky in South Australia, Catta in Queensland, and that is now the case when it comes to the reelection of the world all bar one of the teams. That Bradfield number is really interesting. Obviously. You know, if they get there, well
that's on the way towards what people predicted. If they don't, we know that that's their second and massive crack at it. And their expectation was to grow the footprint. And if the footprint does retract either with Goldstein or the failure in Bradfield. It'll be really fascinating here. But I want to ask again the question of your cause, which is we know that generally speaking, fifty two forty eight, fifty
three forty seven reality fifty five forty five. Is that a miss or that's the margin of error conversation.
Yeah, so we're projecting in So's pole Bludger projecting that it will land on about fifty four.
Okay, So basically yeah.
Yeah, yeah, And so, I mean we had it at fifty three. It's about one point one percent out, and I think a couple of other pulses as well were within that space as well.
That's pretty good, that's what you want. Yeah, well, well I was just going to say, I was just going to say, is that But also, Michael, the type of polling that I personally think is going to be more instructive for the next three years and probably for the future of the industry. Thank goodness for the national poll, but I don't care. I want to see a pole of twenty seats, the ones that swing and the back
and forth. Because Okay, as we were talking about before the election, Michael was a just hardcore labor vote that was going up in hardcore labor seats. All right, But if you can see in the things that swing what's happening, as well as marry that in with the electoral role, you're going to get pretty damn close, don't you think, Michael, that that has to be the future of insight into the electric.
Although it depends on how big the pole is.
I mean, you see these rubbish poles occasionally where I mean Chris Bowen, there were some polls showing that he was on nineteen percent and his challenger was on forty percent. You see this push polls, these fake poles which are on small numbers by non credible sources. Take the view that in a federal seat, in the actual seat, I don't want to see a pole less than a thousand voters in a federal seat because that's one percent. It's not a huge number and it can change. But I
prefer to see the bigger the poll, the better. If you're seeing a seat where the pole is one hundred or one hundred and fifty, just put it in the bin, mate, just take my notus.
But it is very hard.
It's very hard to poll individual seats, very hard.
Yeah, there's also a couple of companies I could name, and because we'll probably be happy if I did. But if you know, you know, well you just go okay, radio, goodbye into the not even for the narrative conversation. I'm not going near any of that stuff, all right, So let's talk here as well, in and around polling fresh Water. Okay. Now, they were the most generous to the coalition, they published in the Financial Review, but they were providing the private
insights to the Liberal Party. James Campbell's got a story this afternoon that some of the seat polling and the seat insight into Dixon was allegedly being held back from Peter Dunton. If that's the case, well again, political malpractice from the people who should always tell you what's going on. You don't want to be flying blind. You'll hit you'll hit the cliff. But they came out and have basically as a reputational exercise, defended themselves via the Financial Review tonight.
In amongst other things, they congratulate Cosin Redbridge for getting it bang on the money, which I thought is a good thing to do. But this is what they say about the three things and the three reasons that they miss Labour's landslide. I'm going to read all three of them to you from the people behind the Freshwater Organization. I can get those up, guys. The first quote, first, polling appears to have overestimated labor defectors to the coalition,
particularly those who voted no the voice referendum. Okay, just on this one point, Bob Hawk was simultaneously re elected multiple times while losing multiple referendums. The idea that the referendum equals the result in an election, there's no overlap. But as you can see there number two on what they had to say here. Second, for all the noise about preference flows being different in a way that was
substantially benefit the coalition performance, that outcome simply did not materialize. Now, the one nation vote we're going to talk about this at some points was up around seven, eight, nine, even ten. Looks like at this stage we're sitting at about six and a bit. There was a little bit of junk news that was around because somebody quickly touched a couple of things that you know, the preference flows were running at ninety percent, and therefore if they're up, then the
preference flows go well, that wasn't true. Third thing here, The third was the late swing. Given that all the polsters seem to have underestimated the swing to labor, and everyone's field work would have been over the days in that week, it strongly suggests dot dot that there was a late swing among soft voters. Well, surprise, surprise. I think many last minute undersided voters just go who do they think is going to win? But that's part of
my theory. Michael can't help to talk about the data that's inside the room, the data that was being fed into the machine. Publicly, we saw that it was the most positive of the polling, but it also seems that the spin they were giving to the media, and I think in potentially the candidate was oh, mate, in fifteen seats, we're fifty to fifty. Where fifty to fifty Where the reality was it was fifty two forty eight, And they'd hoped the fifty two forty eight was their way, but it.
Was so mate. Long experience tells me never to listen.
To private polling, private party polling. A senior coalition person said to me during the election, the private polling is very, very good. I said, don't take any natives of it. I know, No, it's very we're very confident in this that and the other seat. And I said, I've actually seen the polling in writing. No any documents or any spreadsheets, anything on zoom or anything. No, I said, so some polsters just said it's very good and you've sallowed that
and gone away. Yes, or so I said, because a lot of if you if you say a lot of a lot of reasons. But one of the reasons is that that out of high level meetings things need to leak out, and then they might leak to people like pests like James Campbell. He keeps writing this stuff with very good, very good columnists. By the way, well he's a brilliant writer, Campbell.
But you know, so you.
Always keep the the the confidence up of everyone. Now, what James has written tonight is is devastating.
If they if they have kept.
From Peter Dutton certain polling in his own seat and in Brisbane. And if that's that's true, that's Dunton would have every reason to be profoundly disappointed with that. But no, I'd never take any notice of private polly and don'ts and people that ring me and say what I think the private polling is saying I said I always say, don't take any notice of it.
Just read cos or news poll or get it.
Get a sense of consensus for these polls, and you know where the thing's going. Otherwise, what you're saying is that the private polling's right and every other pole is wrong.
Well that's just nonsense.
So the private polling isn't isn't terribly relevant, I don't think correct.
Now I'm going to pull in Eddie maguire here causes response after the break, Stay wild, baby, stay wild, stay with us. But plenty more to talk about, including that organizational stuff that I said at the start of the show, and again, part of what we're going to do over the next few weeks, the next few months, and logically over the next three years is got a whole bunch of people on who will offer an answer to some
questions that maybe we don't have the answer to. Doesn't mean they're all going to be right or all going to be wrong, but that's the point, not just to learn a lesson, but to be seen to be learning a lesson as well. Hot to see, all right, we're all in it. Thank you, appreciate that we're here. Of course, don't forget Meg and Kelly Wednesday night Nige or for Urs Tuesday night. And you know, I'm going to be sad face here, not the TikTok sad face that some
people try to put on me. It's not real. By the way, is this state of the race. I've enjoyed these conversations and I look forward to versions of them in the next little while. I really do appreciate, brother of you, and it's lots of stuff and other things to do, but I appreciate cos Sam Marris and Michael Kroger you having these conversations. Because all right, enough of the hold over the Liberal Party private polling and why you think it was so wrong?
Okay, So it's all about how you use the data and interpret the data. So I think, look, their polling would have been fine, but it's when you get served the numbers you've got to actually say to yourself, Okay,
what's set in my piling. So if I'm polling one and I'm using a CADDY, which is what the two majors use, it's a process called the computer aided telephone interview, and that is a call center, a live call center rings into the electric Now, why, I know that trying to ring young people and get them to answer their phone on the maibile is very difficult, right, And so what it does is that under reports the vote of young people, and the types of young people that answer
the phone are sometimes not reflective of that population.
So you grab those numbers, you're going to upweight their short fall and you can content to make the whole sample. This happens right across the board. Both mayors do this now in one and that's going to be pretty accurate. Why Well, because it's an older electorate.
Therefore the liberal polling approach would be quite sound. But you roll it out into a federalcy like Hawk in Melbourne' out of western suburbs where it's very young, you're going to underreport the labor vote because there are more labor young voters there than their own liberal and so as a strategist you've got to go, Okay, these numbers are telling me, you know we're fifty two. I'm going to take three or four percent of that because I know
in my bones that's actually under reporting it. So your advice to the boss being done and would be a boss, this is what they're telling us but a caveat X.
Well, and a perfect example, as you say about those demographic things, is that again at the electoral role, we showed this it was nine thousand more people under fifty than over fifty, So a perfect example in that seat where there is such a stark difference that, Yeah, the methodology falls apart, all right, Michael. I know the answer takes three years and probably much longer to actually answer. But what are the types of questions that you think the Libs need to ask themselves?
So Mata I said you on Thursday night, there's one thing for certain out of this.
Election, which is it will be we will be shocked at the result.
And that's exactly what happened, although I wasn't able to tell you which way we'd be shocked, but there it is. Well, look I distill it down this way. This is simplistic, but it's largely right. You fight elections on your brand equity. You look at the sixteen election and the twenty five election very similar. Yeah, fought basically on one dominant theme, lots of sub themes. Trump and the nuclear one dominant theme in sixteen and twelve. How did labor go one
dominant theme in the nineteen election. How did the Liberal Party go twenty two is different because the government have expired expired, right, it's been there nine years three Prime Minister's fourth term agenda that wasn't one.
Et cetera.
But three of the last four elections have been short on been fought on the party's major brand equities. Labour did tremendously well have it won ninety seats in thirteen. We almost lost in sixteen message there are elbow. Labour fought that on their number one brand equity. They revived that this time with a shocking smear campaign of lives and disinformation, but they got away with it.
Correct.
We fought the nineteen election on tax So what.
Have you got to do.
You've got to wrestle the debate and you've got to be good enough to wrestle the debate on your brand equity. If the elections have fought on the economy, debt, deficit, et cetera, on the fact that in the year's a head mate, the federal government are going to have to make massive cuts everywhere.
Well, it's us all labor.
If Labour keeps spending at this at this level, right, Debt's going from your debt's gone up, the gross death's gone up three hundred billion dollars from nine hundred to one point two trillion in the seven year period from twenty one to twenty two to twenty nine. Right, this bloke charmers is very reckless.
So what's the message.
The message is get back on to the reason people vote for the Little Party, which is your core brand equity, and not policies which are a bit unrelated to your core brand equity, because when you do that, you don't win.
Because I know you've got an appearance with Peter Creedlin and plots, have plenty of other commitments. But can I get you back for the best part of a full hour in maybe the next couple of days because the answer is long and complicated to the very same question. Again, Thank you boys, I really do appreciate it. Thank you for talking you through the election. I look forward to again plenty more chats in the thanks very near future. That's our chef for tonight. We'll see you again tomorrow night.
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