From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Can I get even lots to talk about tonight.
Let's do our best with the sixty minutes that we've got to tell you about the other twenty three hours today, We'll do our best.
There's lots around. Thank you so much for watching. Now I'll let you in a little secret. We are getting towards the end of the year.
Sure we don't flip stumps like some radio stations did a couple of weeks ago, or most over at Taxpayer Television will know this week we'll push a little closer to Christmas. But we are starting to look at doing some stuff. That's looking back at the year of which we have all been living. It's not a surprise. It's that time of the year, right, the best of this and the worst of that, and the winner here and
the loser and all the rest of it. But I wanted to and part of that is that I've gone back and.
Had a look at some of the things that happened this year.
Remembering January of this year, the Prime Minister, after a crappy set of numbers in twenty twenty three, particularly after the voice Oh here he was, he was ready for what was referred to at the time as a reset, because you see he was ready to press the reset button. Everything was going to get better this year. Well, how is everything looking at the end of the year for the Prime minister?
How did that reset work?
Well, if you like looking like I do at the bookies, because they were right about the American election when the polls were very wrong about the American election. Tonight, the Coalition favorites to be the next government after the next election, most likely a minority, but.
Still that is what is the suggestion of the bookies.
Right now, Poles are either fifty to fifty or ever so slightly leaning.
The Coalition's way.
And today Peter Dutton was out and about talking with Candadaate so he thinks will be able to take on the Teals. Remember the single biggest hurdle for the opposition to get over before they can get into the minority government game litt alone a majority government game is of course the Teals. I'll explain part of what happened with Peter Dutton today on the northern beaches of Sydney, but there was another piece of information buried in the backbits of the Turnbull Times.
Well, it shows that.
This government is starting to get into Morrison government territory.
And of course that.
Was a government that was onto its third prime minister going for its fourth term. This is the bloke who of course defeated that government. Yet many of the.
Parallels between a government that is about to go and the one that currently does.
Has been noted that just thirty eight percent of Australian voters have confidence in the federal government. This is pretty close to where Morrison was when he was voted out of office with the government in May twenty twenty two. The study has also got deeper concerning issues for the Albanesi government. Seventeen point four percent of respondent said they had no confidence at.
All in the federal government.
For four point eight says not very much, so the extreme bulk.
Doesn't have much confidence.
You put it together with those that have none, you have a clear majority of people who don't have confidence in the current mob. And this is the last round of polling on this subject going into the next federal election. Thirty two percent say quite a lot, but that's basically their primary vote, and just five percent say they have a great deal of confidence because presumably the pastors kept ringing Kiribilly House.
Trust in the federal government is also eroded.
The proportion of total population saying they don't trust the federal government has gone from forty in a bit at the previous election, a change election, to forty eight point one percent as a government is going for its second term. Now, if there was not the tal question, we would very much be talking about the likelihood of a government being tipped. We have to see some data, we have to see
what's happening. But the book you seem to have a clearer vision than maybe the posters and certainly many people who talk professionally about politics. And we all know why this is the case. Apart from all of the many frustrating things about this government, its central purpose for being was the promise that I have shown you every second night for the past three years, the promise that if you voted for the Labor Party then cost of living would get better. I keep showing you this because they
want to hide this. They want to hide that this was their central promise, yet they have not been able to deliver on it. Today in the Australian newspaper we made a quick reference to this in conversation last.
Night, but I want to take the time here.
They publish a thing called the Nationwide Voter Research and it showed the number one issue thirty three percent, is still cost of living. We are going into our third hed Christmas in a row under this cloud of cost of living. I have shown you multiple times that under this government a million people have come to the country of iroent migration, yet barely barely enough houses are being built or approved to be built to even deal with
maybe maybe a third of it. Thirty nine percent of people in this survey said that they struggled to pay their rent or their mortgage. That'd be because, of course, under this government that was going to bring down the cost of living, interest rates have gone up twelve times when it was one under the previous government, the sky was falling on was a full blown cost of living crisis.
Well, what do you say when it's twelve.
Thirty six percent have gone without essentials like food, medicine, or education. Put simply, any government in any other time with numbers like this is a debt duck with an almost certain bleak future in front of it. But because there are a group of people in a group of seats. We are not looking at that as the seemingly inevitable outcome. Now again, if there is a surprise result next year, there is no surprise. The government promised to make life better.
It has got worse. The government turns around and says, well, it would be even worse if we.
Weren't in charge. This was the garbage from Grimjim today.
Now Australians would be much worse off, and growth in our economy would be even weaker without our responsible and balanced approach to the budget and without our cost of living support.
But guess what we are worse off.
I know you've heard this a bit tonight, but can I give you some of the info maybe you haven't heard thus far. Here the story today about economic growth was there basically isn't any put Simply, if the Australian economy was a car, it's out of tune and it's idling at best, slightly moving forward, like when you don't have your foot on the break because it's not in tune properly. Or I'll let professional TV people tell you their version.
It grew by just a fraction in the past quarter, the weakest figures in thirty years outside COVID.
National Accounts data revealing a bleak reality, the economy crawling. The economy has slowed to a crawl with the latest GDP figures out today.
Oh the enthusiasm with which they have to bring bad news to people now. Of course, just in case you think it's me trying to find a political way through to twist the numbers and push this in that which I don't do. I just give you the data, bricks and mortar, and the mortar is the opinion. The bricks is always the data. Here's some of the other reviews about just how bad today is. GDP growth surprisingly weak, despite the government spending more money than any government ever before.
Sad economy without hope, deepest hit to living standards on record.
Oh but weren't they going to make everything better?
Their fundamental promise is broken and they made it worse, even taxpayer media. Australia's economy growing at the slowest pace in decades, propped up by government spending, something that the government today was said was a Liberal Party talking point. No, it's the facts. In the Daily Mail, the brutal reality of life under Anthony Albernezi as economy grows at weakest
payace in more than three decades. John keyah excellently writes, there's no amount of lipstick on this pig that can hide economic stagnation.
To give you again, more detail, more.
Information for you when you end up having to fight with what seemingly seems to be a smaller number of people who think, Oh, everything's great, everything's fine, everything's cool. The economy grew zero point three that's it.
I don't know how that looked in reverse.
It made sense to me zero point three percent in the past three months. To give you an idea, since twenty twenty, this is what the Australian economy looks like. Oh but it's all COVID, isn't it, Paul. Now, we shot back after COVID and then we changed the government and it's got worse ever since. Oh but that's a soft landing. What the soft landing of economic growth to zero? That's what's happening right now. But the real story inside all of this is what you are living. What the
opinion polls show us. But what this program and I have been relentlessly focused on because I knew this would be the outcome of this government. I didn't give them a second chance or even a first chance. You knew what was coming with this mob. You knew the a mus that they made that millions of people fell for was a lie.
It was a lie on power prices, It was a lie on cost of living.
Because you see, while the press release today says that Australia is not in a recession, the reality is that per capita, Australia is in a recession and has been now for seven quarters in a row. To give you an idea of how this has worked, it started in the June quarter of twenty twenty three zero point two minus minus zero point three, minus zero point four, minus zero point five minus zero point three put it all together, in the past twelve months, the per capita recession is
minus one and a half percent. Now, the overall economy that the government is going to give itself marks on is one that essentially on the exists in the federal budget. In terms of the people who actually pay for the federal budget being the companies who pay their company tax. There's great difficulties out there from a small business trying to pay its power bills to paying its wages or
to the customers of those businesses. The citizens who are paying a higher percentage of tax than ever before in Australia for services that we know do not increase with the amount of tax take that they have in Canberra. In fact, we know that unless there was the seemingly lucky moment when it came to iron ore and other mining taxes, the government would be deeply in deficit.
Because the plan is, and the Treasury said it themselves.
And I've said it plenty that you can say it back with me, there is a structural deficit in the Australian budget. That means we are going to be in deficit until the twenty sixties, when forty one million people will apparently live in Australia.
But even when we.
Get close to include increasing our population by such a margin, creating all those workers, all of those customers, the government will be wildly spending too much money because they don't even with that amount of extra people have the income
to cover it. But the per capita recession simply means that when two quarters in a row, and now it's been seven, when the value of your dollar goes down, the capacity for you to buy things goes down, and the amount of dollars that you spend also goes down in terms of the effectiveness of that dollar, a point Peter Dutton made today.
The government can sugarcoat all they want, but the fact is, as the Reserve Bank governor keeps pointing out, it's the government's reckless spending that drives up inflation and therefore keeps interest rates.
Higher for longer.
But again, if you ask Jim Chalmers, everything is.
Well. Sorry, that's what he was thinking. This is what he.
Said, rather avoid a hard landing than clean up after one. And we're seeing elements of a soft landing here and that gives us encouragement that acknowledging people are still doing it tough and growth is still weak in the economy. If we'd made the sorts of decisions urged on us by our opponents and our critics, growth would be weaker and people would be getting less help and they'd be worse off.
See this, this isn't even like a shell game, you know, they put a p under the thing and work out which one is.
It's not even a three card Monte trick. It's just bs.
The citizens of this country have been in a recession for seven quarters in a row. The Australian economy technically isn't in a recession because point one point two point three point four point two point one oath, which only exists because the federal government is hiring thirty thousand new public servants, giving a pay rise to all public servants, exemplified by the politicians getting not one to three pay
rises since the last election. Other private sector pay rises are being supplemented by the taxpayer baking that money.
Into the budget.
Hence why it goes into deficit for the next forty years.
We effectively are.
In a recession of But the soft landing that he talks about here is this idea that effectively, despite the fact that the citizenry and the household, regardless of what they own and where they live, is going backwards, because we can put out the press release saying that we're still sputtering forward.
Then that's the soft landing.
It's a soft landing for treasury, it's a soft landing for the politicians.
But for normal people, their.
Back is right up against the world and they are on the wall and they are in a world of trouble. And this is part of the problem for the Reserve Bank. You see, despite the fact that the citizenry is in recession, but the press releases are not in recession. They won't cut interest rates. Now that's not me saying I want us to be in a recession. It's just saying we are in a recession. But they won't. They think there's
enough growth there, there's enough real inflation there. Not the bs that gets covered up by twenty five dollars a month to everyone who lives from a mansion to a one bedroom unit in Charters toowers. And I'm not picking on Charter's towers. I'd move there tomorrow. I love the joint, especially the driving. Say gooday to the gang for me next time you go there. Good double features on Friday and Sunday night, Good low prices under ten bucks to good people.
But the reality is is that the government is trying to fiddle the books.
They try to fiddle the books to make it look like they are delivering on promises when you know that they are not. The central promise, of course, that everything would get better, but it's.
Not going to.
Eventually, but it hasn't in the period of time that the people who applied for the job said the reason to give them the job was because it was going to get better in their first tranch of being in the job. We'll discuss whether the Reserve Bank will do something different this month than they have for the many months before. Because while the government plays all of these games, the reality is that there's a people that are in a world of pain otherwise known as us.
Now.
Also when it comes to some of the politics heading into this next election, and tonight again I'm going to talk a little bit about the how the Liberal Party is trying to put together a strategy to get the Teals, what the limits to some of that is, and some of the candidates that are now going to be the ones they're going to be taking them on. Bromwin Bishop very close to some of those one of her old seed of course liberal for ages went Teal. She's going to be part of the effort to try to win
it back. But we'll get to that in a second. Of course, the Poles keep telling that when it comes to the Prime Minister and the alternative Prime Minister, that things are.
Relatively razor thin.
In fact, the latest newspol says that things are as I mentioned before, fifty to fifty, a former Labor senator says that both sides have a chance of forming a minority government. And again today Peter Dudden was on the northern beaches of Sydney where he unveiled two candidates who he thinks will be able to knock off at least one, maybe two of the Teals.
In fact, this is what he said in James and Jamie.
We have two exceptional candidates who I think will do a great job for the local community.
And if we win these seats back, we win.
Government and we can stop the Albanisi government from destroying the livelihoods of many Australians.
We can get our country back on track.
But if there is a minority government that is built of the left, it won't just be lefty Teals. It will of course be the Greens who think that they will be in the driver's seat when it comes to deciding what will happen in the next parliament.
Hopefully not, but still.
Adam Band was out and about in the past couple of days basically saying that he would like to share power if he helps prop up a Labor government.
Now Labor, of course will say no, I will do no formal deals. There will be no formal ministries.
But if you can't pass a single law in the Lower House or the Upper House, then guests who ends up having the power and by default they end up being the ones to decide if the government can achieve anything in the next parliament. Well, here's Adam Band talking himself up in the past couple of days about what his prospects are post a minority government.
As we go to the next election.
The Greens position will be keep Peter Dutton out and push the next government to act on things like health and housing and climate and environmental.
Watch this space. They are not hiding. They are in plane sight.
They think that they can take a couple of seats off the Labor Party. The Labor Party spending billions of dollars trying to stop that from happening, or maybe win one back because they know they're going to lose seats in Western Australia because they didn't expect to win that many. Maybe one in Tasmania because they're in a world of
trouble there. Don't get me started on Queensland and constantly knocking back projects in the Northern territory, as well as having the old spend more time at the tennis than actually going to Alice Springs and talking about the problems there. People remember, they don't forget there's a good chance that they will of course get to that minority based off all of those scenarios, and God to help us all if the Greens end up in the driver's seat or
being the tail that wags the elbow dog. In state politics, the Cruciofoily government in Queensland is now in full swing. Parliament has been sworn in and the first pieces of legislation are making its way through.
I hate this.
Tradition of all the speaker doesn't want to be the speaker despite the fact that they really want to be a speaker. They get extra money all the rest of it, so they get dragged to the seat.
But still whatever.
Anyway, David Krustofoley has delivered on the promise that he made all the way through the election and the lead up to it, which was it is time to get serious about youth crime. And that means if you are somebody under the age of eighteen who commits a crime that somebody over the age of eighteen would commit, you're going to jail for just as long.
Just to be clear, we campaigned on adult crime, adult time we campaign that it'd be laws by Christmas.
We will fulfill that now.
It would be impossible for even the most labor loyal spinners in the media in Queensland to say that this government does not just have a majority, but they have a mandate to deal with youth crime front and center everywhere we've gone in Queensland. It is the a one issue. But there are some people who just don't like democracy.
You'd have to think that because despite the fact they knew these laws were not just proposed but endorsed by the people of Queensland, giving a government a majority to be able to pass them in the Parliament unencumbered, they're all out and about trying to tear the laws down before they even make it to being gazetted by the Governor.
Sus just another slick forward slogan from David Crisafurli. Human rights and yet advocacy groups say the policy will do more harm.
Than good strategy at odds with international studies. According to experts.
The threat of increased penalties doesn't work with young people because they're not thinking about the penalties of their behavior.
But the test of a politician is whether they are willing to back their own idea, but also call out the many people who fill the media with their views about why the government is doing the wrong thing. Now again, this government is not a year old, it's not two years old. We'll wait and see whether the lefty judges get the message or whether it's all just about talking about maximums and you need to start doing things about minimums.
But just like Lea Fanukiaro, the Northern Territory Chief Minister, when she was confronted with a collection of protesters who didn't want the many jobs that come with gas projects in the Northern Territory, she said, can you just buger off back to Melbourne because we know the people of the territory didn't just vote for it. They gave us
some majority and they want these particular projects. David Crucifoilie has a message for those who want to ignore what the Queensland people voted for, just.
On some of those commentary.
In many cases it's the same people who led to the same situation for the last decade. We are a different government and we are taking a different approach that puts victims first across the spectrum. And I think if you reflect whilst there will be different views on some elements. There, there's also been some strong views of support about our desire for early intervention.
Now to the future of the country, education, a subject that again committed to talking about all the time. I don't know why use the Royal Wi. You just don't want to say I met me, me, me, me a hundred times, but.
You get the point. I talk about it a lot, not.
Just because my kids are involved with it, but because it is the future of the country. And you may all have seen a collection of stories today around the nap Land tests, the ones that have checked in multiple years about reading, writing, spelling, grammar and.
Mats.
You may have seen things like you know the best results and where to and go onto this website and find out how your local school did. And that's great because today they broke down all of those results by schools.
But there's one thing we have to remember.
Yes, some schools are doing okay, and some public schools are doing better than some private schools, and some co ed schools do better than sing I get it right, but have a look at the overall picture in Australia, because this is tragic. I went for the deep dive
into the national results today. Now there are two categories that basically are the old pass fail sort of under fifty percent mark, and these are people who need additional support, which is code for really struggling or developing, which means not quite the standard yet. Have a look at this about year three, year five, year seven, and year nine.
There are thirty one percent.
Of kids in year three who need help with reading, twenty one percent struggle with writing, thirty seven with spelling, forty four percent with grammar and punctuation, thirty four percent, or I should say forty four percent and thirty four percent with numeracy in year five. I always get nervous, by the way, because when you're trying to get on your high horse about education, if you mispronounce something or something's poorly spelled on the screen.
We all know what people, But my point stands, all right, a.
Small team doing an awful lot of work, all right. In year five, twenty six point nine percent of kids are struggling with reading, thirty point nine with writing, thirty point six with spelling, thirty three point six with grammar and punctuation, and thirty and a half percent of year five kids struggle with basic numeracy. Once you get to high school. How the hell is a third having trouble with reading and writing?
How a quarter having trouble with spelling?
How are thirty seven percent having a problem with grammar and punctuation and again thirty one point three percent with numeracy? So then, okay, maybe there's a little hangover from primary school.
What about year nine?
You are one year short of being able to leave school if you want to win Year ten, thirty five percent are in the additional support or developing section of reading, thirty seven in writing, twenty six in spelling, forty three in grammar and punctuation, thirty four percent in numeracy. Now, I have said a thousand times that when it comes to many of the things they test at school, I am as dumb as the bricks that are behind us here, right, I bombed out big in school, and I am a
high functioning dyslexic. All right, you may well notice that sometimes when I'm trying to read, or try to read sometimes without our glasses.
So I know what it's like to struggle at school.
I was one of the kids who in year twelve had to ask for assistance why because my.
Handwriting was so bad? That's my fault.
But my handwriting was so bad it looked like a drunk doctor's handwriting so way back when when they were run by the Commodore sixty four, I had to type things out rather than write them, and even then I still bombed out in my HSC. It's a whole series of wonderful reasons why I get to sit here tonight and use what skills I have to be able to make the arguments that we make each and every night. And I'm proud that I'm able to overcome those things.
But a lot of people don't. And that means that we spend three hundred billion dollars in the past ten years on our schools. But all of those things show us we're going backwards. So great, okay, you're going to be able to double check whether your school went well or otherwise.
But there are plenty of kids in plenty of schools who are.
Going backwards, and we keep wasting money thinking that if we do more of the same, somehow it will change the result. That is the definition of insanity. Couple of quick ones, Commonwealth Bank. We ripped into them last night, and rightly so, because their decision was that they would charge you to walk into their branch to withdraw your money. There was a great conversation between somebody who's had the terrible job of trying to spin this on a current affair last night.
Well done to Ali Langdon.
And her team for basically sort of pulling the wings off the fly. Well, the good news is that within twenty four hours this thing's gone. It has now been put on the backburner. The government's trying to pretend they had a role in it. No, I think there might be something else. I don't think grim Jum was involved in.
That at all.
There's a drug summit happening in New South Wales as we speak. It is being chaired, among others by my mate John Brogden, the former boss of Lifeline, the former opposition leader and a man who would like to obviously see things change for the better in New South Wales. Well, interestingly, there was somebody who spoke not to the conference locally but from afar, and it was the boss of a city in the state of Oregon.
Now, Oregon is one of the most.
Super progressive, super lefty bits of the United States where they kind of legalized everything. When it came to drugs. He had a warning for New South Wales or anywhere else in Australia planning to do the same, because they've actually reversed that policy.
In retrospect, it looks so obvious that if you don't have the treatment resources available, what's the point of even trying to incentivize people into detox or into sobering services if they don't exist. But what the Measure one ten did was it almost completely eliminated law enforcement's role in drug possession situations except their authority issue one hundred dollars cittion.
Now, also, if there are people who are expecting a drug legalization to come from both the libertarian world or the lefty world like it has in the Act, it's not going to be happening in New South Wales. Now the laws have been loosened where some possession charges are being dealt with more via caution and health. But the Health Minister actually well kind of made the conference a little bit useless because he's ruled out the decriminalization of drugs in New South Wales.
Now.
We all know that to Wikipedia not the most reliable source of information, but geez, don't millions.
Of people go to it?
Ever so frequently, and today the list came out about the things that people have been viewing the most on Wikipedia pages around the world. The number one most looked at thing deaths in twenty twenty four forty four point four million people. Then it was Kamala Harris, the American election, the Menendez brothers twenty five million people double checking details about Donald Trump. You'd imagine they would know by now, the ipl jd vance, the movie Deadpool and Wolverine, Terrorble.
Project twenty twenty.
Five, and the Indian election are what people look for on Wikipedia. But Tonight to Night, of course, where we talk to the wonderful Meghan Kelly, So a little primer about some of the American issues happening right now. Pete Hagserth is a man who has served his country in the military. He's worked for many charity since and of course most recently has been on television. He was named in a shock apparently to people, to be the Defense
secretary under Donald Trump. And the problem is lots of people don't like his record, and there's lots of stories about him both personally and well professionally before television, which are now starting to sink his chances. He doesn't exactly look like a guy who is being embraced by the Senate. He looks like he's a naughty boy who's kind of working out that he's not going to be able to play.
With the cool kids.
So if he does not get confirmed, which seems to be a bit likely, there's going to be.
A slam dunk choice.
Apparently, according to the great people at the Wall Street Journal, rond de Santis might be the person who will replace He, of course, served in the Navy.
I think he was a jag lawyer. Was he not well?
That, of course would mean that he would have to leave the governor of Florida position. Now watch this for
a little bit of musical chairs. You see, if he goes up to the federal government, then his lieutenant governor, basically the second in charge, would be promoted to become the governor for the rest of the term, and it would be her job to name a successor to Marco Rubio, who was a senator from Florida who is also making his way up to the big table of course, as the Secretary of State, the chief diplomat for the United States, Meaning that if the governor goes and senator goes, then
the Lieutenant governor will have to name a new senator. And that's where Lara Trump comes in. Now, remember, of course, Lara is not just the daughter in law, but also is the boss of the.
Republican Party, a party that won.
She's a proud Floridian and of course you saw that great interview with her and Aaron Mullen available now YouTube and it's sky News dot com dot AU. So that's the primer of the musical chairs which might be happening in and around Florida. Megan Kelly loves Florida, but she doesn't live there, and we'll have her on the show a bit later tonight.
Yeah.
Oh and ugly tan curtains behind her. That really did make it look like something out of the USSR was Have they captured her? Is she where she? Is it Hawaii or is it Moscow? I can't quite tell.
I know now I've got to that stage in my fat Guy for Zeke my dad that when I laugh, Google jiggle.
She's the reason we're an HD.
You can just split screen, but we'll pay a teacher to everything she has to say a little bit later in the show. Great debate coming up Bromen, Bishop Stephen Conroy. So much to get into, from how the lips planning to take on the teals to will the Reserve Bank do anything different than they have during the country being in a per capita recession, just getting started, big hour ahead.
I told you we're doing the best we can with the hour we're got. Thanks for joining us.
Oh, we always love this chat each and every week, none other than the carry out a champ looking resplendent in all of this color.
By the way, Bromwin, Bishop, very pre christmasy.
Of you, very pretty christmasy, and you know things are looking good for the country if we get to change the governor.
She's on message. I love it and always just here to help.
And you always know that he wants to talk about something else when we go on the long history wander.
That's your version of the week, Steven Conroy. That's that I always know that. It's like so well, I will take that.
I would take that as a compliment from you, given how much you love Trump's weave.
Correct I do, and I love you too, mate, no question about all right, So let's talk about Peter Dutton today on the northern beaches of Sydney.
This matters not.
Because it's a Sydney story, but because of course the concentration of Teal seats all across Northern Beaches up into North Sydney, that seat it doesn't exist, then over the road into the eastern suburbs. So that's a pretty big sway of Teal seats that if they can somehow flip them, that would move them closer to the magic number of seventy six when the election takes place. Now, Bromin, one of the people who is trying to take over from you, James Brown, former boss of the RSL like, who seems
to be pretty focused, pretty good. Jamie Rodgers has been announced as the candidate in Worringer.
As well, and she's a delightful lady.
But I just want to ask you what is the indicator that you see in and around the seat that results in anything different than where it was three years ago. Because we know what the Teals are going to do, we know all the volunteers are going to have all the extra posters and all the extra money. But what are you noticing about one of those bricks being moved?
Well, let me tell you what's the most important indicator for me, and that was the no vote. Now the Liberal Party in New South Wales was the discrece It did not back the Liberal Party per se did not back the federal leader. So you had Speakmer not backing it, you had the state executive not backing it, but did mckeller. We had seventy six people who work very very hard. We had good leadership from one of our branches, from the Avalon branch and where people work very hard on prepoles.
The final vote was zero point nine percent away from being fifty percent.
Wow, okay, so we got forty.
Nine point one percent. Every other till seat was a yes vote all.
Over the play. It was a bloodshet.
The work was put in. The work was put in, and the people of Mackella are good, sensible people and they know when someone is looking after their interests. So I think James Bounder is a very good candidate. He's hungry to work, he wants to do the job, and he cares about the people. So I think it's very very good that Peter was there today. Peter Duffin was there today. But I'll tell you an interesting historical fact.
This is your wave. Now you're going on the history.
Well, Keller used to be part of a Wringer. Yes, it's a forty nine ers seat. The person who won the seat of Waringer in nineteen thirty six was Percy Spender, good old Percy and Percy Spender, of course is a legal Spender's grandfather.
Oh wow.
And he wanted it as an independent because he got kdopped off for preselection and he then joined the UAP under Mensies. Right, So there's a nice connection.
It is a lovely connection, all right. I do like the history weaves.
I don't mind him at all. Don't mind him at all, Stephen. I'm not going to let you go to go on one just quickly yet, right? Which is that I want to ask you about. Obviously, part of the theory right about how the Teal seats fall is that if the Labor vote falls, the capacity of Labour's preferences to get these people elected falls with it. Is that something that you will be looking for as the detail of whether this is going to happen or not.
Look, one of the things if you look at the history of independence in a range of different seats labor and liberal, is that after they win for the first time, the primary vote of the if you call it the third party, it's Labor or Liberal. But the party that wasn't the incumbent before collapses and gets him behind and locks him behind the.
Independence.
So I think that the Labor vote will go down, not because of any attempt deliberately. I think it will actually just go down to make sure that Labor will come third in these seats now, so it'll be really a contest between the incumbent Teel and the Liberal Party, and Labor will finish a distant third. Then you have the Green preferences and a range of other preferences. The key, of course for the Libs to try and get their
primary vote to forty five forty six. If they're not at forty five forty six, they're in trouble even in what is a traditionally safe group of seats, because all those national poles say Labor should.
Already be dead ducks.
What keeps Labor with the hope of forming government is that Dutton will struggle to win back those twals.
Correct, Correct, And that's our analysis. That's going to be our north star about how to interpret the election between now and then. Fascinating to have a look at what the bookies think right now, and again bookies they never lost sight on Trump. Maybe it'll be the same here in Australia. So we talk often about the economy. We know today that we are in this per capital recession
seven quarters in a row. The numbers that they are terrible, and it doesn't matter which section of the media you go searching for your analysis, it all concludes the same, which is.
We are in a world of trouble. But then we have, of course, what the Reserve Bank does now.
Steven, I've got a feeling you're going to think they're in the wrong place right now. But Bromen, do you think that they will do anything different than they have to this point? Because if we've been in a per capita recession for seven of these quarters in a row, you need two to qualify.
So we've done it three times over. We're on our way to our fourth.
At what point does the Reserve Bank say, well, maybe the interest rates are of part of the problem here.
No, I don't think they will because their job is to keep inflation down and everything the government is doing is pushing it up. So you've got to understand and that the snake charmer is doing his darndicity keeps telling us to reinvent capitalism. The only trouble is he's going down the socialist path. So his reinvention of capitalism has become a socialist, which of course is right in line
with elbow. But if you want to see the country restored to prosperity, you've got to have a change of government. It's that simple, Stephen.
If you.
Look at what he's done, Look, I made a little list, well for it. Come on, there's no productivity growth at all, wrecking the economy the liberals and forming inflation, force up wages to.
Relation country in reception all the masses.
By controlling how much electricity they can have.
Contain and tempt to drive.
Yes, absolutely, and this goes on.
I just want to give Stephen a chance to respond, because we're within the sixty second window before we've got to go off to Megan Kelly. Is this if there don't think they're going to? I mean, at some point they have to change their behavior, But I don't think they're going to.
What do you think?
No, I think the Reserve Bank and AW so locked into their failed economic model that they will be incapable admitting over the next four months that they've got it wrong. I've been arguing not just because of the election six months you've known, Paul, I've been arguing this over eighteen months. They've got their modeling wrong. And because they've got that wrong,
they are not going to change now. So I think the governments have come to the conclusion that there will be no interest rate cuts because they've got it wrong. But just on the most fundamental point here, the government is part of the economy where labour should be getting credit today is they have stopped the economy going into recession. Stephen, the economy in recession, there is no private growth, there is no consumption.
Probably there is no consumption. Damn it. Why did I lead with this topic. I should have lead with it. You have no clue there.
You've got no clue on this. See plus in the first year text you yes, I look it up at an economics text.
First this was the time.
Now I'm saying this was the Reserve Bank are crushing the economy.
The Reserve Bank, I destroyed it. Consumption reck you guys do it correct? And the sas now all all right, okay, okay, I call time on this. You have way more time next week. All right, quick break back the more. Megan Kelly joining us from the States is a funny one. I want to.
See our favorite person in the world at favorite time of the week, Megan Kelly loving to see you.
Jeez, didn't a few people notice how last conversation? Thank you, thank you, thank you?
Little did they know we do that every week? They've been missing all the fun.
Correct one hundred percent? All right, Well, I don't know.
I am I supposed to say happy Holidays right now? Or is it happy Thanksgiving or happy you know? In between relo bashes? What's the right way to talk, you know, to a friend giving?
We switch over to Merry Christmas. We say Merry Christmas. Remember that was the report. We say Merry Christmas, and we say.
It that correct.
Medals for anyone who was part of the war on Christmas for those so many years.
All right, let's talk about Hunter Biden. So the pardon is not a surprise.
Your reaction on the show is completely correct, which was okay. The only people who didn't see this coming are the same people who had the blinders on, who thought that Kamala was winning. But the devil in the detail is what I wanted to talk to you about. So he's completely off the book from everything from the start of twenty fourteen till a couple of days ago. That means barisma, That means all of the Russian disinformation time, and it also means any crimes while dad was president.
Yeah, it's all been wiped away. There is no way of getting after him whatsoever, at least not with a federal government, and there would be no state government that would be going after him for or would have even jurisdiction over these alleged crimes. But yeah, he's clearly decided that we can't touch anything he did. I believe it Joe Biden's behest I mean, I believe Joe Biden was in on the whole scheme and was not just some you know, poor concerned dad wondering what his drug addult
son was up to. I think he was well aware of what his son was up to. Like, we're going to pretend that as a sitting vice president he didn't have the power to say, Hunter, you may not sit on the board of a Ukrainian energy company while your dad is vice president is the point man for the administration on Ukraine energy. Like you may not. It's a no, of course he could have. He did it because I believe that email was right that they found on the
Hunter Biden laptop ten percent for the big guy. And Joe Biden does have have a nice beach house in Delaware and you know, a nice Porsche, and they don't pay the lawmakers over here very well. So where did his money come from? And I guarantee before we get to him passing the baton to Trump, we're going to see more Biden family pardens, including of his brother Jim Biden was also part of this racket, and he might even try to do the self pardon because I do
think there's more to be found around this story. And unless they're completely insulated, the odds are team Trump will try.
Has anyone explained why, I mean traditionally when stuff like this happens, it happens day of transfer because it'll be buried underneath all of the images of a new president taking the ice. Is there any suggestion as to why this had to happen?
Now?
The speculation is that he didn't want him to get sentenced that once the sentencing, you know, and he was looking at three years on each charge once the sentencing was handed down, it would have been harder to make this look like a nothing.
You know.
Now it's like and it's like he was found guilty, but come on, this is all political. Let's move on as opposed to like he just dodged a six or ten year sentence while everybody else who commits these crimes has to serve that time. So it could be that could be that they didn't want the official convicted felon label to attach, which it does when you get sentenced. So I don't know, but those make sense to me that he like to avoid the sentencing. He had to do an asap.
So let's talk about our dear friend Kamala. We didn't get a chance to talk about it because of the Thanksgiving break. That video where she turned up like frankly as we would say in Australia or a peacet auntie. She was just you could almost hear the bottle rattling somewhere because that was not her finest performance, and of course she could have done a do over. There were no questions why was that so bad?
I do think she looked and sounded drunk. I mean she truly was, like don't she tell anybody. They can't leave you their power. Don't take away your power. It's your power in your dreams and your aspirations. Don't take them away. I believe in you. I'm middle class. It was so crazy. I don't know why they didn't do another take, or four or wait four hours until she'd had some coffee, or maybe she's just exhausted, and this
is how she sounds when she's absolutely exhausted. But then if you got a candidate like this is just another example of how her whole team is so clueless. Why if you have a candidate who is exhausted, let's go with that. Would you put her in a brown suit? Like what? What telegraphs vibrancy less than brown? Can? I like what? And then the hair was like very like drabbing forward. It was like the sort of what Sally Field referred to as like a football helmet in Seal
Magnolia's And like her face was very sad. It was like very downward turning and she could yeah, and the ugly tan curtains behind her that really did make it look like something out of the USSR was like have they captured her? Is she? Where is she? Is it Hawaii or is it you know, Moscow? I can't quite tell. And you would put her on something vibrant, you would like make her seem a little warm. And let me tell you, I'm just not to be too mean, but
I'm given those other things I just said. You would zoom out. Okay, I'm just gonna say it, zoom out, ladies. We've all been there. There are the days we all need to be zoomed out on, just like way back. Yeah, we can take the extreme clothes up, but they're getting fewer and farther between as we get older. Let me tell you, for Kamala Harris, we were at the zoom out portion of this race. So I honestly think this team is either totally clus or mean.
What about So today the campaign is still asking for donations. Now we know that's because they broke They didn't just raise a beany and it was one and a half billion. We know they went into date. But who is still giving money to a case that's been dead for a month.
I don't know, but they deserve it. It's like it's the way we felt when we talked about on your show that Black Lives Matter organizations turning out to be totally corrupt and fraudulent, and they'd been taking all this money and put it in their pockets, like we felt any sympathy at all for the donors, like okay, good, keep defrauding like I love it. Give, Give to help,
Kamala Harris. You should. That should be where you spend your political donations this year, all of you who are inclined to do it, Like I can't believe the grift
