Paul Murray Live | 3 September

get to that in a second. Now, you and I of course know that youth crime is a crisis no matter where you happen to live, City regional areas particular. Focus on Queensland at the moment because there's an election where you might be able to do something about it. But over in Lefty Land, nothing to see here, an extraordinary bit of tape I'll have for you in a moment. The Great Nigel Farage joins us from the UK. Yes we'll talk Trump, but we'll also talk about the UK

cracking down on smoking. And he doesn't want them to do it because he says they could end up like Australia. Not good when we're the bad example of the way things are working. But first, yet again, more bad weather and yet again incredible efforts from people who are volunteering to help others and those that are paid to do so. For the past well twenty four hours or so. About nineteen hours of those there was a yacht off New South Wales that was considered to be drifting afloat and

virtually lost at sea. Thankfully, the mayde call ended up getting heard and police ended up making their way towards it. But the nineteen hours were extraordinary. Now, I am not the best person when it comes to sea legs. Even the ferry from Frio to Rottenest Island was a little too much for me, so I can't imagine what this experience was like for them. But thankfully these people have

been saved. It's two people, and police confirmed tonight that the skill of those who go towards people on their worst day, it doesn't matter if it's on land or at sea, the cops will turn up. And that's why we love them on this show.

up Mount Wellington. Now Mount Wellington is one of the great natural beauties of our country. But the idea that, in whether like has been building in Tazzy for the past couple of days, that you go hiking is absolute madness. Well police were able to locate these people in the past day. Extraordinary again that they put their own lives at risk to go and save other people who needlessly

put their lives and their rescuers at risk. And I've got to say, someone agree with the Premier who absolutely has given it to the people who decided to go marching around in pretty awful weather in Tazzy. Here is the premiere today.

going to get you. But if you put yourself above the people who were dealing with other natural disasters, well, while we don't want anyone to get hurt, the idea that the resources get diverted, they become very frustrating. But well done to all the volunteers, all the pros that are out there and helping everyone around the country at this annoying time when it comes to the weather ahead of a very long summer, where as always something will

go wrong. Now today we've got a bit of an insight into just how much money all levels of Australian government have now. Taxation has never been higher. There have been nerver, more people, more people paying their taxes. And of course the single biggest source of revenues that go to the federal government in particular, is not company tax. It's not the GST, it's not the amount of money that they get off for coal or gas. It's off

people who work and the payers you go system. We know that plenty of people do their best to try to get the healthiest tax return they possibly can, because, as Kerry Packer said, why would you end up paying more to people who often waste it? Perfect example Jim Charmers and the way that he has been not managing our economy. They've spent hundreds of millions of dollars on political slogans, not actual solutions to anything, but political slogans.

Twenty five dollars a month credit for power bills on everything from mansions to one bedroom units in the bush. That's just so they can say they're helping two little too late tax cuts which result in just fourteen dollars a week for people who truly need it. At the moment.

And then of course there's the premiers, and the premiere is well, they are spending like drunken salors to the extent right now that they are one of the big driving forces the amount of projects that they have on offer that are currently pushing up inflation and making inflation so difficult to get on top of. But let's have a look at the money that all of these people are getting, that the political class gets and peddles up against the wall every single day, while at the same

time more people are suffering than ever before. It doesn't make sense, does it. Well again, the far right wing thing tank known as the Bureau of Statistics are the ones who can give us an idea here, because have a look at this. This is how much tax has been taken by all three levels of government. Two hundred and twenty six thousand million dollars otherwise known as two hundred and twenty six b four billion dollars. Not two hundred and twenty six million dollars, but two hundred and

twenty six thousand million dollars. Extraordinary, right, that's up seventeen percent the total revenue in terms of government when you put everything together, ends up being about two hundred and seventy million dollars, sorry, billion dollars, that is the revenue that is coming in. The numbers are that big. It is extraordinary the amounts of money that are coming through to the federal and state budgets. But jeez, I know

how to spend it as well. If you've got in a year two hundred and seventy billion dollars going out the door coming in the door, then can somebody explain how you've got the best part of two hundred and eighty five billion that is going out the door. That's what I talk about with the structural deficit, that if the government doesn't increase the amount of money that it gets in revenue, the amount that it is committed to

in spending becomes what we call a structural deficit. Now, the document here it was about in millions of dollars. Two hundred and fifty five thousand million dollars is two hundred and fifty five billion dollars, thirty thousand million is thirty billion dollars. All of it up up, up, But whose life actually changes, Whose life is actually the better off for all of this money going around, Apart from the politicians who, of course, are the ones who make

it seem like it's their money that they're handing out. Oh, we're so grateful to you twenty five dollars a month on power bills that were supposed to go down by two hundred and seventy five dollars. Remember, Oh, but that was that was just a promise to get into an election. Who cares? Now? Interestingly, there was a fact that was

around in I believe a Redbridge pole. The way that I saw it was in an analysis which was obviously strangely pro government, or at the very least anti opposition, written by old Auntie p k over there at the ABC.

But we get to this point. If you think about the fact that this government spans hundreds of billions of dollars, fifty seven percent of people, when asked by Redbridge, had the following answer of no. To this question, can you name something the federal government, led by Anthony Obenezy has done since being elected to make your life better in

any way? Fifty seven percent of the country says no. Now, obviously we start getting into the mid sixties if you break the unsure number in half, but most of the unsure we'll end up at no roughly sixty percent of Australians so they cannot name a single thing the government has done since being elected, not the little too late tax cuts, not twenty five dollars when it comes to power, no changes for this, that and the other fifty seven percent, And that's with the media, that of course gives the

biggest possible version of all of the numbers. Remember how we talked about that in the run up to the two little too late tax cuts, where of course rather than having a look at what they are per week or fortnite or per month, which is how people get paid. Of course, the spin doctors in and around the camera media are doing their bit for the government that they prefer. Well, they were giving the biggest, the annual number, the biggest

possible numbers. Again, despite their efforts, fifty seven percent of people telling a pholster they can't name one thing that's made their lives better. Another example too, about how life is going to get a little tougher at the shops

in the next little while. Now I won't bore you with this, but essentially we got some numbers today about the difference about the amount of money that we spend on importing things into the country versus the amount of money that we made exporting things to the rest of the world. Now, most of what we buy in the shops we know is made somewhere else, which meant that

it has to be imported into the country. And yes, there are many industries that do their best to try to make things here to get them exported to the rest of the world. But surprise, surprise, guess what has happened under the watch of Anthony Albernezi and Grimjim. We have gone from more money being made out of what we send to the world to now spending more money on what comes in from the world. Put simply, this is a surplus which used to be that we made.

We exported twelve point one billion dollars more than we imported before this government came to power, and now we import ten point seven billion dollars more than we export, a turn around of twenty to zero point six b four billion dollars. We import more from the world when

we used to export more to the world. Another thing that has changed on this government's watched, but nobody will talk about it because generally speaking, people only look at the US dollar through the eyes of somebody who may will be traveling overseas. But of course the difference between a higher or lower Australian dollar affects how much the stuff is that we have to buy in US dollars from overseas to come into the country versus of course

what we export. And when we are currently importing financially way more than we are exporting, the bill goes up because the value of the Australian dollar continues to go down. In March, before these people became the government, it was seventy five US cents, now sixty seven US cents. Now again, anyone who's traveling knows the difference between seventy five and sixty seven. Now, imagine if you're importing and you're buying one thousand somethings from somewhere else, or you're trying to

export one thousand somethings from here to somewhere else. Now again, these are the daily data that we get, rather than the spin and the bs that comes from Jim Charmers, not a doctor in economics, but a doctor in the politics of how Paul Keating talked about economics. Well, Jim Charmers, as you know, is trying to pretend that it's all

the Reserve Bank's fault, not his own government's fault. Who remember, along with state and local government, is getting more money than they have ever gotten the history of Australian governments. But they're also spending more even than the record money that is coming in. Well, thankfully people are with me and pushing back on the garbage of this bloke trying to yet again shift blame from his own economic responsibilities.

Great article in the Financial Review Today opinion section. Here's Steve Hamilton, who was in aus says if only focused a little less on managing political expectations and a little more on managing inflation expectations, we might have avoided this mess in the first place. Charmers is the worst treasurer since Jim Cans. Jim Can's was goth Whitlam's treasurer, and this labor government is the most economically incompetent in half

a century. Now again, I am not, in any way, shape or form somebody would even profess to have any level of expertise beyond the most obvious basic working knowledge of economics. But night after night after night, information that does not come from right wing blogs or think tanks, but comes from the Bureau of Statistics tells us the

reality of Australia's economy. It also via that polling reminds us that despite the noise that comes out of Canberra, if fifty seven percent of Australians cannot tell us a single thing that this has done to make their life better, then this election that is coming up sooner rather than

later is going to be fascinating. Now again, I know the path to seventy six for the opposition is tight, is difficult and almost impossible because of the Teals, But at fifty to fifty with a Labor vote now below where it was last time, with the Greens expected to take multiple seats, if Labor is to be returned, it

will be with a minority government. A minority government that will not just be a minority of one or two, but many more, meaning that it is going to be propped up by the true crazies of Australian politics, some who claim to be independence despite the fact that they all look the same, talk the same, campaign the same and fund their campaigns the same, or those who don't know the difference between profit and turnover. We're in for a wild ride. But right now we haven't even bottomed

out in Australia, and that's with majority government. Tomorrow, we expect to see growth figures that will be barely better than the quarter. Of course, to go into a recession you have to have an economy that is shrinking for two consecutive quarters or six months in total. To give you an idea of the Australian economy and how tight it is. In the past three months we were growing

by zero point one percent. The expectation of the numbers to come out tomorrow is that we may will be growing by a grand total of zero point two percent.

If you are relying on an economy to have public holidays, Taylor Swift or more immigration to be the only difference between a recession and microscopic growth, then you are a country in trouble, a country in trouble with people in charge of the economy who either know what they're doing and they are deliberately making the wrong choices, or people who don't know what they're doing. But amazingly, fifty seven percent of Australians cannot name a single thing that this

government has done to make their life better. Yeah, and apparently it was the Prime Minister's media unit. That was the problem. The boss of that has now gone because it's not at all elbow that's the problem, is it now? Today? In an interview we heard today that Peter Dutton believes that the Liberal Party is closer than many people imagine too.

Look again, I'm not going to say victory because until I see some numbers of the tolls that the Teals are blowing away again, the Opposition is going to be in an incredibly competitive spot compared to where they were when they were, of course flushed from office less than three years ago.

momentum is with us. I think the Prime Minister is showing those signs of improving with time in the saddle.

But clearly what needs to happen is that the Liberal Party has to have the tightest and smartest and well funded machine possible behind the political efforts of what their parliamentary leader Peter Dutton is doing to make the most of the failures of this government, to have the right candidates and the right seats, the right message, the right advertising, the advertising that will be both nationalized state and right

down to the local level via social media. And for that largely it is the state Liberal parties that player role in that as well as yes, a federal campaign. But still states play their part. They have the knowledge, they have the members, they are part of the machine. Well. Of course, the New South Wales Liberal Party is a joke. It has been for a long time. The madness and in fighting and factional nonsense means that you would prefer to care about what's happening inside your party than the

actual enemy of your party. But as you have heard today, the federal branch of the Liberal Party will take the New South Wales Party over after the disgrace of failing to be able to get enough people and fill out the paperwork for people to run a local council. I cannot wait for Holly Hughes, who knows the machine but is certainly not afraid of the machine, to talk about that and a whole lot more. As the evening rolls on,

she'll join us with Joe Hildebrand. Youth crime and crime in general major issue around the country, because God forbid, we will want to live in a safe and undisturbed Australia, because that's the way it has been in the past. It's the way it should be. Now it's way it's

should be into the future. But as we know, there are too many people in the judiciary who give people there's seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth chance, and even when ultimately they get some sort of very serious punishment, it is nowhere near what the victims of crime understandably want or we believe they deserve. And this again is starting to turn up in the polls. Earlier this year we saw that a crime backlash was going to potentially play into

problems for the Labor Party at the federal election. Now does the Prime minister have a direct correlation to policing, know, But that was the same when it comes to fighting fires. But people didn't care then and people shouldn't care now either. Of course, it's the prime minister. It's the government that sets the tone, that has the money and has the position to be able to say what is acceptable and

not acceptable in a community. Well, last night on Channel two on their Question and Answer program, there was a question which was delivered by a woman in a suburban

part of Melbourne. Now they seem to be doing this as their current trick at the moment, which used to find Boomer de jour to ask a question of which everyone else rolls their eyes at and basically says, oh, please, please, please, You've just been watching too much of Sky News in prime time as opposed to all of the reality of the stories of crime that not only we mentioned, but you know in your real life. Here is the question.

zero drink driving, we should have zero murder. But watch them all dance around what should be the goal, which is no crime.

But then there is this other way that, particularly in New South Wales, the statistics are reported on, and that is when you have tens of thousands of people who are the victims of sexual assault or domestic violence or common assault. As long as it's not up or down by a couple of thousand, it's just called stable. We saw the nonsense of people saying about crime in places

like Paris. Well it comes with being a big city, of course, in the same way that advocates every day speak with absolute and care passion that the goal should be zero domestic violence, it should be zero for knife crime, zero for robbery, zero for stalking. In you see the difference between your your feelings and what you read in the media. No, no, no, you can't convince people that what is the reality of their life is not the

reality of their life. If people know someone who is a victim of crime, and they do by the tens of thousands every year, then they know that crime is coming closer to them. If you want to turn around and say, well, you know ten to seventeen is a little bit up, but you know eighteen to twenty four is a little bit down, well, what crimes are being committed by ten to seventeen. Zero should be everyone's goal. The reality is you can't get to zero because human

beings are involved, and human beings make stupid decisions. But the idea that you don't just turn around and say to that lady, you know what, you're right, I agree with you. Let's stamp it out, because if the same question was about a specific type of crime, that would

be all of their responses. No one will turn around and say to that lady, well, actually, if you have a look at the statistics, it's ever so slightly this and more people die in accidental falls than the category of crime you're talking about, and that would be unacceptable, as I believe it is unacceptable the way they answer that question last night. But of course, next question, please or do they still say I'll take that as a comment. Stephen Miles is in a world of trouble. You know that.

I know that, and it's all well deserved. He leads a government that should no longer be in power. Should have gone at the last election. It should have been Palachet who was copying it, but she was rolled. He's the one, and he's the one who is going to get absolutely pummeled as the leader of a labor party

at the upcoming election. Crossed. Now, you would think that this bloke would be at least smart enough not to do stupid things with publicly funded planes, because remember earlier in the year, freshly after he became premier named a brand new police commissioner, they took not one but two planes to go around the central and northern parts of Coeensland to talk about how they were going to crack

down on crime. The nonsense of two planes when one would have done cost one hundred and sixty seven thousand dollars. So you think that he would have smartened up now about what he's doing with the private jet weld under Chris Jones and the team of the career mar because have a look at this premier Stephen Miles had an eleven minute taxpayer funded flight so he could hand out a birthday cake to one of his colleagues and announce

a brand new school fence. Premier Stephen Miles used the government jet to make an eleven minute flight from Harvey Bay to Bundenberg, where he celebrated his his birthday and announced a new school fence. In making the short flight short flight, mister Miles and the Health Minister Shannon Fenterman avoided driving on the notoriously dangerous single lane stretch of the Bruce Highway during a week where the quality of

the road has been in the spotlight. Don't you just love these people other people's money, and even when they're caught doing the wrong thing on planes, they turn around and do it again because they either know their toast or they don't care what you think. I think it's probably both, but it's definitely the latter. Two months, two days until the United States election. The things that we know that happen between now and election day is, in

about a week's time, there will be the debate. A few days after that, early voting will start in many of the states. Then Donald Trump will be sentenced potentially to jail to go immediately in the New York case. And then of course there is the run up to the election. Will be in the United States for the election and many days beforehand, but our main focus will be Queensland election first, then into the American election. So

who's winning right now? They've just had labor Day, the end of summer, and this is often when you take the polls to work out who's up who's down, because generally speaking, it doesn't change very much between now and the end, unless, of course, there is a debate, and we all know the media has already decided Kamala Harris has won that debate, regardless of what actually happens or what word salace she brings to it. Now, on the polls, I can show you poles at say Trump's way up.

I can show you polls that say Harris's way up. But let's try to pick one metric and go all the way through betting markets. Why because that's just an interesting way of looking and clearly unlike people just prognosticating, people have real money that they're willing to win or lose. Gear Currently Trump fifty one percent chance of winning the presidency. Ala Harris forty seven percent. Now, how did that happen?

Because you may all have noticed these seven swing states, there's only two left that are considered to be genuine toss ups right now, the all important Pennsylvania and statistically important but depending on what happens in other parts of the country Nevada on the west coast. So let's have a look here at why Trump is up fifty one percent. According to the bookies, he's an eighty percent chance of winning the Sorry, that's a sixty percent chance of winning.

In North Carolina, he is a fifty eight percent chance of winning. In Georgia, So again according to bookies, I can show your polls in either direction. In Arizona, he again is a fifty nine percent chance of winning there. In Nevada sixty sorry, fifty one percent chance. So that's tight. That's really tight. Sorry, I do have my glasses. I can't even read my own graphics here, I apologize. And in Pennsylvania he is currently leading fifty two percent to

forty eight. There's also an interesting little stat that I can tell you, and I won't get too detailed about this on television, and it's an example of the sort of stuff that I'm looking at off the air to try to get that sense of which way that it is going, which is that in Pennsylvania. Of course, in twenty twenty, mailing voting was one of the main ways people were voting. Now Joe Biden only won the state

of Pennsylvania by from memory, about forty to forty thousand votes. Well, for both Republicans and Democrats, the number of people asking for a mailing ballot is down by a couple of one hundred thousand, either meaning there's a certain series of people who don't want to vote or a bunch of people who will assume and vote in person. Now, the assumption is that Democrats vote early, Republicans vote on time.

So make of that of what you will. But to betting markets tonight, do not play this tape in three years time, third of September East Coast time of Australia and nine to twenty nine at night Trump apparently just in front. We'll talk about that in a whole lot more than Nigel Ferras a little bit later in the show, but looking forward to Holly Hughes about the news of oles Libs and Joe Hildebrand about how Albo saves himself

from Albo. Fifty seven percent of people have no idea and okaynot name one thing the government's done to make their life better. Joe will have a list, but we'll deal with that in a second. Oh, thank you so much for watching Holly Hughes and Joe Hillebrand in the man Cave standing by looking forward to Niger fras from London nine or two times. So let's jump straight to it here. Joe, why do you think Albo is in trouble?

Because Resolve Pole, Essential Pole News poll all say more than half of the country is either dissatisfied, poor, very poor. All of that about his performance right now and the Red Ridge Pole that I just showed that fifty seven percent of people can't name a thing, a single thing the government's done. Why is he in trouble Because it's not like he's got a critical media on him.

rating was exactly the same at minus thirteen. So Peter Dutton is preferred as doing a good job as oppositional lead and the Aberdez you're doing a good job as prime minister. The public is equally dissatisfied both them. I mean, talk about your double haters and.

hand their preferences back. But if enough of that happens in enough seats, we're talking about Greens MPs propping up a minority Labor party as opposed to a couple of independents from you know, Rebecca Sha or anything.

a beer with. They want to elect someone that they think is competent. They want to elect someone who they think will put national security first, who will be looking after their interests, will be making sure that the immigration levels are at a sustainable enough level that they can afford housing, that kids can get a job, that the

economy is working. They don't necessarily elect someone who they want to go and have a beer with, particularly when things are going badly and I think we can all agree things are going badly across the board in the economy particularly, so I just think it's a stupid attack line, but it's one in Labour's DNA.

A fundamental problem that faces Team Red and Team Blue going into this election is that you will have to the left of the Labor Party. The Green's promising everything, literally the Homer Simpson running for city sanitation, We're just.

far in that direction. But the majority, particularly of the Federal Parliamentary Parliamentary team, is conservative. It will always be more conservative than a labor government, especially a Labor Greens government, which I unfortunately think could be where we're headed. You know, it is really important that those that do want to vote for one nation, that want to vote for the UAP or Libertarian party. There are more libertarians, there are

more conservatives, there are more people. I mean, you've only got to look. You know, Babbitt put up emotion the other day around babies that survived failed abortions. There was not one Labor or one Green that supported that motion. That was the right place for the motion to get. There were four liberals that didn't support it. And you know it will forever confound me on that and I was one of the liberals.

give up whatever. We saw that in twenty ten, so all wait, watch and see a couple of other quick things here New So was the Liberal Party takeover again? A lot of people national show that don't particularly care about the granular stuff, but I think it's great that the Federal Party has stepped over the state party because the state party is so beyond dysfunction. What are your thoughts? Is this the right thing that's happened?

darling just can't escape. I did text him and say I wonder if you were asked in the same way Rob Stokes was, and he hasn't replied as yet, so perhaps Chris hasn't been officially asked either, that just thought by putting it in the media, he'll feel inclined to agree. But you know, you made the point not getting in the weeds. Fewer viewers that are concerned about getting a change of government. New South Wales is the biggest state and you need to win the seats there, so it

might seem like you're getting in the weeds. We might say we're making light of it and whatever, but the reality is New South Wales is a state that they need to win the most seats in. I was in Wa next week and I know why Albo's been there this week and everyone else because.

us well done for standing up for smokers. Now, let's be very clear, those of you who have a dart, those of us that have a cigar, stupid, killing ourselves slowly, not good for kids. Give up. We get all of that right, but it does remain a legal product. Now, if it is a legal product, where should you be able to consume it now? This, Nigel, is an interesting point because in the UK any people love a drink and they love a dart with the drink, and it's

pretty liberal to do so. Outside but this new mob look like they're going to get rid of that.

where you've taxed cigarettes to a crazy level. You've made it very difficult to smoke anywhere in the state of Victoria. And now guess what's happened. The tobacco trade is in the hands of the criminals and you've had ninety seven firebombings in the last two years. So I've been warning the government here don't do what they've done in Melbourne. Don't take a legal activity and effectively criminalize it well.

harm the people That there's midways in between. But I always find just from a public policy perspective, it is almost impossible to talk about some of the logic in all of this because any level of discussion is considered advocacy, and advocacy for smokers equals you, sir, are worse than Hitler, as was the joke in the Simpsons.

The World Health Organization have now said there is no safe legal limit for alcohol so they'll becoming for that next And would you believe in the last four days in this country a report out suggests that having just one croissant every morning significantly affects your chances of having a heart attack. So either either we just all give up live on bread and water, or perhaps that won't even work, or you reach your point where, frankly, you disrespect this.

But fascinatingly, we were all supposed to get this massive convention bounce because Oprah was there and Michelle, Obama and Walt. Statistically that hasn't turned up. And even the bedding markets, which yes, at one point had her in front, now have got Trump in front. Now I know there's a whole bunch of stats I can show that go this way or that way. But by this point in time he was supposed to be a dead duck according to all of the media, and guess what he ain't.

just hope he never mentions Joe Biden ever. Again, he got himself a bit stuck with this idea that he wanted to fight Biden and Biden had gone because there was a coup. Well, forget that, You're up against this woman, and it's much harder in politics to criticize and attack all female politician than it is a male politician. So

he just needs to get that balance right. I know this myself from my time in the European Parliament attacking you European commissioners but look, no, the Trump campaign is getting itself back into a better place. And look, I promise you on November the fifth, he is going to win.

have the data to have the debate at home. He's the late debate and I'll see tomorrow with Meghan Kelly