From the sky New Center. This is Paul Murray Live.
Happy Wednesday. All lots to get to tonight. Let's not muck around.
I need the full hour with you now.
Before I get to the news, the politics, the stuff that I know you here for the name meet.
Congratulations to a dear friend of ours, Nicholas Race.
Of course, long time part of what we've done here for years and years and years. As you know, we've agreed on every single issue, and you've cheered on every opinion he's ever had. But no, seriously, he's a good guy. He's been a mate for a very long time. I admire anyone who's willing to come in here and have the debate. But the reason we open the show tonight is Nicholas is now.
The Lord Mayor of Melbourne.
He ascended to the position in a ceremony that took place yesterday and this boy is now very proud as the leader of a great city and a man who I think will do great things.
So congratulations to him.
He's saying, among other things, he wants to get on top of safety in the city and also to literally at times clean it up.
Here is what the Paul Murray Live.
Candidate says now that he is the mayor of Melbourne.
Good on you, Nicholas. It's an extraordinary honor. It's a privilege.
You know, I mentioned I came to Melbourne from another country. I came here as a kid and lived my life here, and my Melbourne story has been a story about a family, working hard, life getting better. And now to be bringing my family up here in the city of Melbourne and to be serving here at town Hall, it's the absolutely honor and privilege.
Of my life. Now.
It's one thing for those of us who talk about politics all the time. It's another things for people like Nicholas who've worked behind the scenes in service of premiers, of labor leaders.
And of course of prime ministers.
But when it is you that history is calling upon, you can see that the enormity of it is well and truly dawning on him. And one more time, congratulations to you, Nicholas.
Look, I think community safety and city cleanliness is going to be at the top of the agenda. I think Melbourne is a safe city, but we can do better and I think the city also can do better in terms of cleanliness.
Now, as you know, we've got a deal which is all Paul Murray Loo viewers do not have to pay parking fines anywhere in Melbourne. Oh no, we haven't formally got that deal yet, but it's on its way never.
Now.
As you know, Australians are absolute We talked about this last night, that the joints headed in the wrong direction. Lots of different reasons, but principally of course, about the government's failure when it comes to cost of living. To give you an idea of where this is. From the start of the Urbanese government, only thirty percent of people think we're in the right place.
That's way down. The number of people who.
Are unsure has basically halved, and the result is twenty seven percent. More than a quarter of people have joined those of us who believe that this government was going to take us in the wrong direction.
It's confirmed fifty four percent of.
Australians believing that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Now, I believe that there are plenty of examples of it and indices of it each and every day, each and every night. The great golf between what was promised and what the reality is, the great golf between what they claim is their priority and the way that they actually behave. But what shifted people in the past couple of weeks since the last time this poll was taken and it
was just below fifty percent. The five point jump in just one pole, Well, it's the reality of the economy that this Prime Minister, this Treasurer and this Labor Party is in charge of.
Now.
To go into a recession, you need to have negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
That's six months.
To give you an idea of just how close we are to starting to go backwards. The Australian economy at last check is growing zero point one percent.
That's it.
It is technically idling with a slight turn of the tires, but that's it. Nothing's really going on. In terms of the inflation rate, it needs to be between two and three percent for the Reserve Bank to do anything. In May, one of the three months that will be counted towards, the inflation rate over the quarter is four percent. It's been going back up. The concern is that with all of this the Reserve Bank will yet again put up interest rates. This matters so desperately for the two thirds
of Australia that is paying off a house. They live in or are paying off a house that is an investment property. I understand for those people who've got money in the bank and savings, higher interstrates is good. There are also flow ons to things like credit cards. So for the majority of Australians, they do not like the news that the rates are going up, and of course they have gone up thirteen times since May twenty twenty two.
Thirteen sorry, twelve of the thirteen under this government, twelve of the thirteen. If the Prime Minister, of course tries to pretend it's everyone's problem, please, if one interistrate reason, one interstrate rise in May of twenty twenty two was the reason to change the government, what do we say after thirteen? We'll get ready now for the magical fourteenth
to drop. Because in the meeting that they had just a couple of weeks ago, the Reserve Bank didn't even talk about cutting it and they barely had to be talked out and just talked out of actually raising interest rates. The reality when it comes to inflation being at four percent or higher and to get it down to between two and three percent means people like John Kierre, writing in the Financial Review says not one, but multiple multiple
interest rate rises are on their way. Now you know this picture, and this is why so many people are feeling right on the edge, and I mean right.
On the edge.
Well, one of the pieces of data that they look at to work out whether the economy overall is slowing, whether there is less spending going on inside and in part that are the things that can lead into inflation, is what's happening at the shops. Well, today we got from the same people who are telling us inflation is going up, that being the Reserve Bank, and that the
economy is just barely existing, let alone actually moving forward. Well, the end of year's sales are now sort of in the review mirror, and we are now starting to see that there was actually an uptick and the number of people who were buying things from the shops. Now, all of this matters because if the spending keeps going, then the people who've got the money are really putting the pressure on the people who don't have the money who
are paying off their houses. The Reserve Bank looks at these changes like this one today about all the different sectors we're spending is going up, and they put that into the basket of the case for the rise inflation is already there, and now this gets added to it. As you can see, these are ever so slight, but still more spending on food, more spending on household goods, more spending on clothing, less spending in department stores, less spending in cafes.
But overall it went up. And that means we.
Start looking down the barrel of an almost inevitability I hope not, I hope not, but an almost inevitability of another interest rate rise. And with fifty four percent of the country knowing that the government's taken us in the wrong direction, imagine what that number becomes when there's yet another interest rate rise, one that yet again the government will try to blame on anyone else, but of course
will be of their making. The promise was that all of the decisions that were made in the federal budget were not going to affect inflation. We're not going to push the Reserve Bank into raising interest rates again tonight. It's hard to find anyone who thinks that it won't result in an interest rate rise, much sooner rather than later, let alone multiples. Hence why Peter Dutton asks the direct question that the majority of Australians are worried about.
After two years of the Albanezi government decisions driving up inflation. The new loan variable interest rate is six point three percent, costing Australian found was an extra twenty one.
Thousand dollars in after tax dollars.
Why WoT the Prime Minister admit that his three hundred and fifteen billion dollar spending spree is driving homegrown inflation and threatening further interest rate increases into the future.
Will it surprise you?
The de man who was Chris Kenny and Ray Hadley quite correctly point out, is never responsible for anything, doesn't answer a direct question that is the single biggest concern in Australia, no matter where you live.
I thank the Leader of the Opposition for his question, which goes to a comparison of where the Australian economy was in twenty twenty two and where it is now.
Extraordinary.
Remember, inflation was starting to come down, but it was still too high, meaning that things were costing more than they did twelve months ago, and of course they were costing more than twelve months before that. And that's the whole story of the economy under the Albanese government. Pretending that crumbs off the table two little too late tax cuts magically saves everything. Well, how many times can I show you the proof? Because you know it in your heart,
they're not able to pull off the jedimind trick. The BS only works so far. Normal people are frightened about the of the economy right now, and they are frightened of the people who are now in charge of it. They can blame everyone else, but we know it is them. They are the ones who turn around them whenever anything
is mildly okay, it's all their responsibility. Every job that's ever crowded in the country, they're directly linked to well, they of course are directly linked to inflation, and therefore, in my view, they're directly linked to interest rates. Australians know it, they're starting to say it to the pollsters, and it will haunt this government if there is at least one and just one further interest rate rise. Meantime, where people are trying to keep the head above water.
For many people is credit cards, and as you know, that is just a fool's game. Now, I, like many people, when I got one too young, you ring it up and then thankfully you get a tax return. You're able to push it down a little bit and then you ring it up again and it is just a world of pain. So we learned today via The Australian about the amount of debt and it's now dangerous levels of debt that are around when it comes to credit cards.
How's this half eight billion, repeat five hundred million dollars a painful credit card debt has been added to Australian finances in just six months. Why cost of living? If you don't have money in the bank, and we've told you before about nine million people have less than one thousand dollars in the bank, most of that is about two hundred and fifty dollars. Well, you have to find some way to pay for things, so you apply for it, you get a credit card, and we collectively have a
bill that is growing by the minute. The latest Reserve Bank credit card figure show credit card balances occurring interests of jumps from eighteen point one billion dollars now eighteen point five about eighty point six billion dollars, and that since November of twenty twenty three, reversing a long running trend where Australians had been able to have their debts over the past twelve years. But now, of course they supercharge.
People will blame the government because the government is involved, the government is responsible, and the government makes decisions that make it worse just because they try to come up with a way of accounting that makes them look good overall. You know, in your life, the per cap at a recession with the crushing amount of debt that costs more because of the cost of funding that debt or paying it off, be at your home, your credit card, or any other loan.
Enough.
Now, remember they say, oh, well, let's compare well again, let's compare Australia with places like the United Kingdom and the United States, which are planning to get rid of their current governments UK first, most likely US later in the year. Their inflation rate is coas to half of what we currently are. So if that's good enough to dune those governments may be so for this one when
their time comes, hopefully sooner rather than later. Now, normally, you know, I sort of end the overall discussion at the start of the show with something about the United States. But what is happening right now in and around Joe Biden deserves a little more time and a little more prominence. Believe me, you have not heard what you are about to hear here, because this is how I'm spending my day, on top of everything else, trying to watch the little
bits of data. Now, as you know, Biden absolutely blew up his political career at that debate, which is now a week in the rearview mirror. But how many people saw it, how many people won't forget it, And this is the guy who's trying to reapply for the job
for another four years. It's unbelievable. The contest of courses between this guy who we were told was bulletproof and strong versus this guy who, no matter how many times he gets hit, no matter what happens to him, from court rooms to Congress and all the rest of it, he's powering on. Now, as you know, there is the national vote, and lots of polls will talk about national votes.
That doesn't matter in the.
Same way that Australia has safe seats and marginal seats. You need to think about that in terms of the different states. Now, have a look at this map. These are what I referred to as the swing states. That's the brown there. Now those states are starting at the top and moving in a clockwise direction, it's Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and the bottom right then across to Arizona and Nevada.
Right now now, with no indication about who's going to win those seats, you need two hundred and seventy to win the electoral College Republicans Trump to thirty five, Democrats Biden to twenty six. So these are the states that make the decisions well after the debate. There are people who, of course are doing plenty behind the scenes that they are not willing to say publicly, and that of course is to push Biden out of the way.
Now.
Of course they want to push him out of the way because they believe that he cannot win the election. The Biden camp, however, of course, is doing everything they can, including discussing moving up the formal nomination not from the end of August where the convention will take place, but to do it over zoom in maybe the next couple of weeks. So they're trying to fortify and lock themselves in well, just like when a party is trying to
move against a prime minister. In Australia, they talk about polls and internal polls, and there was an attempt from someone inside Biden world to suggest, oh, there's a whole bunch of secret inside polls that show we haven't lost any support since the debate.
But the reality.
Is that they were losing in all of those swing states or most of those swing states. So their argument is trust us, we're losing, but not as badly as you think. That was in Puck, which is an inside political newsletter service, but they had the exclusive about the polling meantime, So polling has come in a place where the Democrats won by a big margin last time, and that's the state of New Hampshire that is now apparently
on the table as a potential swing state. So now according to the inside polling which is being leaked by the Biden campaign on one side to say they're not going backwards, but clearly if you read it, shows they're still losing. Plus some new polling that makes some things even more competitive than anyone thinks. The list of swing states now is, let's go clockwork again, Wisconsin, Michigan. Then right up in the top right hand corner is New Hampshire.
Then it's down to Pennsylvania Virginia, which is the state basically that surrounds Washington, DC. Lots of public servant types there. Then the further you get out from DC, you get into Maga Country, then into Georgia, then into Arizona, than into Nevada. Again, Trump's number stays at two hundred and thirty five, but Biden's number goes from two hundred and twenty six down to two nine. You see what's happening here.
So let's imagine all of the polls that currently exist where Trump is in front are all true, and he wins each and every one of those states. He has to get to two hundred and seventy, but the numbers are even bigger than the margin that he had in twenty and sixteen. Now, he would win New Hampshire, he would win Virginia, sorry, he would win Pennsylvania. He would win Georgia, he would win Arizona, he would win Nevada.
He would also win Michigan. So even if he ran that full table, he's well and truly over and he's still got three states to spare that currently a lion ball Minnesota, a stronghold of the Blue team, Wisconsin, which Biden won last time, and again Virginia. All of this very damn close. And all of this is to try to explain what you've seen with your own eyes. Biden
cannot continue as the candidate, let alone the president. But because of course all of the people around Biden would all lose their jobs if he gave up the presidency, well, all of those people are now trying to do everything they can to rig the system to make sure that he's locked in, and they have no other option than
to go over the cliff Fillmoran Luiz with him. So just like a prime minister, so I say, like Malcolm Turbule, who thinks that the way that he can show how strong he is, which is to call an empty seat chair, That of course exposed how many people in the room are willing to vote against him. And it was the beginning of the inn and he was gone within.
A few days.
So let me explain again from the media that have told us this bloke's okay, nothing to see here. Trump's the big problem. They're looking at the polls and this is what they say about what's happening, both in front and behind the Saints.
I mean, these numbers are atrocious for Joe Biden.
That's the only way you can put.
It, And you know, I just think you have to take back a step and look at where we were four years ago. At this point, Joe Biden was leading Donald Trump by nine points. This is just a completely different race, one in which Donald Trump has led basically continuously, at least during twenty twenty four.
When I look at polls like this and you.
See the first call for Joe Biden to get out of the race from a member of Congress on the Democratic side, I don't think polling like this will stop those calls. I would only expect them to get louder.
So, just locking an Australian system, there might be lots of people who want to dump the Prime minister, but somebody's going to be willing to put the hand up to do it. Now, the most likely, the most obvious, would be Biden's Vice president, Kamala Harris. Now, Kamala Harris, on lots of polling for a long period of time, has been more unpopular than Joe Biden. So the assumption being that you have to somehow jump over Kamala Harris
and find somebody else. But the reason why Kamala Harris would be the number one draft pick of the post Biden era is because every dollar that has been raised for Joe Biden has also been raised for Kamala Harris. And under the law, the two hundred and forty million dollars which has already been raised by the Biden campaign automatically would flow to the Harris campaign. But again, under those laws, the two hundred and forty million dollars would not be able to be moved anywhere else.
A quarter of a b billion.
Dollars can't go to another candidate. It's stuck in Biden or Harris. Which brings this to a very important person, a man by the name of James Clyburn. James Clyburn is a legendary figure of the civil rights movement. I'm on South Carolina, and he's a man who, when he endorses you, is able to move the entire political machinery, which has been quite influential over African Americans, to the
candidate that he wants. Now, remember when Biden was first looking week and first looking like the guy who wouldn't even get the Democratic nomination in twenty and twenty, after he got belted in Iowa, destroyed in New Hampshire, it was James Clyburn who decided to put his effort and his support behind Joe Biden. That meant that the southern state of South Carolina voted for Joe Biden, and all of the southern states that followed voted for Joe Biden.
He became the nominee, and that of course set him on a path towards the presidency. What's he saying about anything but Biden or Harris? No muss, he says. If it ain't Joe, it's definitely Carmala.
No, this spider should not in any way do anything to work around miss Harris. We said, do everything we can to bolster her, whether it's the second place or at the top of the ticket.
So now that she becomes a more realistic one, because firstly, that infrastructure that helped get Biden to the White House would presumably fall.
In behind her.
The money that's been raised by Biden would presumably fall in behind her. What do the polls look like, Well, she is still losing. The margin would be ever so slightly less, but according to national polls, and we don't have the breakdown of all of those swing or marginal states, so I can't go any deeper than the headline.
She's still losing to Trump.
Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by six percentage points. But look at this first, as Kamala Harris the vice president, it's just a two point race with no clear leader. So when I look at poles like this and you see the first coll for Joe Biden to get out of the race from a member of Congress on the Democratic side, I don't think polling lies. We'll stop those calls. I would only expect them to get louder if polling like this holes and other surveys.
So if the savior is Harris, because the money and the infrastructure of the African American vote, particularly African American women who will and truly back in Democrats, they don't turn up, you don't win, is all behind Harris. But she's still losing.
Would they be willing to make the change now?
She obviously has to be willing to inherit what Biden won't give up. But the pressure is for Biden to give up because there is no path at this moment for him to be able to win. So let's get back to the debate. Because as many days have passed and the best part of a week, we've gone from
he had a cold, he had a bad night. To now deeper excuses from the Biden campaign about why we all saw what we saw, which was the weakest American president in our lifetime, desperately unable to defend himself little and attack his opposition, let alone state the case for why he deserves another four years. Well, he is blaming how's this international travel for why we all saw what we saw. The only problem is that he returned to the United States eleven days before the debate. Eleven days
he went to Camp David for a week. This was after he had spent two days at his home in Delaware getting rid of the jet lag. If you can't get rid of jet lag in eleven days, how can you even pretend you can be the president of the United States today, let alone go around for another four years. Well, this is an insight into the cluster that was preparing him for the debate and the mask finally slipping for us all to see what we're all known since he was being hidden in the basement, he can't do it.
Have a look at this.
The preparations which took place over six days, never started before eleven am. Mister Biden was also give in time for an afternoon nap every day, so Biden World think they can somehow push it out. Biden World think they can fiddle with the dates, get him locked in, and therefore it doesn't matter anymore. You've got to get in behind him, because just the same way you did when he was the nominee in twenty when he was hiding in the basement in twenty the same would happen again
in twenty four. But I want to show you something that is an example of even the hardest of hardcore supporters of Joe Biden in the media, the ones who said that anyone who said that this guy has got to give it up is a bedweather and doesn't understand and is part of the old school media complex. I turned to a guy who hardcore viewers may remember was a host on the channel MSNBC for a long time. But this is about as hardcore has left his get Keith Oberman.
The day after the debate.
Biden is not dropping out of the presidential rate. And there is a theory now abroad in the land that the entire debate debacle Thursday night may have owed to over the counter cold medication. If he had a cold, and he had cold medication. It could have been the cause of his problems.
All the data, all the reality here, he is to die.
This is an assessment of developments during the day Tuesday. But I think now the president is going to stand down from the ticket and Kamala Harris will replace him as the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party.
I think there's also a fifty to fifty.
Chance that Biden will resign his office before the election.
That's one hell of a turn.
But of course, if Biden he's not fit enough to run for re election, then how is he fit enough to be the president? Which brings me to the most scary piece of news I can possibly give you on this story tonight.
Guess what China did today.
Has been participating in military simulations of attacking fighter bases owned by the United States.
That's why it matters.
If Biden is not fit enough to run for reelection, then he is not fit enough to be the president.
Today.
What happens with an election, be it Biden or Harris both currently lose to Trump, and between now and when presumably Trump takes office in January of next year, China practices how to blow up American air bases.
Now.
Chris Kenney this afternoon had a lamentable example of one of these idiots that are trying to make the point in and around climate change. But often people will ask, you know, how do people like this get made? This is a perfect example of somebody who is part of the doomsday cold who believes that unless you believe how they believe about the urgency of the need to deal with one percent of the world's climate change emissions, then
somehow you don't get it. Oh yeah, and Australia is on stolen land.
Hi there, everybody, My name is Sky. I'm twenty two. Are you shear their pronounce? And I am currently.
On a tree set.
I'm here on one a real country. I am here for climate justice. So sow it sucks. I mean the continent itself, whatever you won't to call that continent is a very beautiful place. But it's built on extraction. It's built on stolen land. The nation state is built on stolen land. We export nothing but coal, weapons and misery.
Don't get me started on where the clothes come from. Let's not break it to him that the bolt is sorry to them in their nose, didn't grow on a tree. But how do you get to this worldview that everything stuffed in Australia is terrible? Perfect example of it today via the Daily Telegraph that students in public schools in New South Wales, in a specific public school, we're apparently being told not just welcome to country, but also hands on the ground and say always was, always will be
Aboriginal Land. Inside the story, students at Sydney primary schools are being told to put their hands on the ground and repeat always was, always will be Aboriginal Land as part of the acknowledgment of country ceremony before each assembly.
So you want to know how you end up in a place where you say things like that bloke did as part of the doomsday cult, Well it starts here where a movement of people do not care what you and I think because they think you and I will eventually just move away and will be replaced by a whole new group of people who will not need to be brought over to the cause and said it will be seated inside them before they even know they are
part of the cause. How did this happen? Not because of a rogue teacher, but because of the teachers Federation in New South Wales. Now they have had a very strong, very aggressive position which they claim is a very progressive position, which is of course to have more Welcome to Country ceremonies to mainstream them as they have now. The Teachers Federation in New South Wales is not some side group. They are of course the chief union representing public school
teachers in New South Wales. You see them marching for pay and conditions. The same people at the six PM years will often try to turn around and say, well, you know, teachers don't know the iss more money. And generally speaking, most if not all teachers I've interacted with, they aren't part of this nonsense. But there are way too many that are, and there are way too many that are part of those who wish to reshape the country,
not just educate the country. New so World's Teachers Federation led the push to introduce the Welcome to Country acknowledgment since the early two thousands. A leethlet from the union to members outlines how to perform the ceremonies. Teachers are encouraged to consult with the school's Aboriginal Educationation Committee and local Aboriginal organizations to provide the appropriate level of recognition
and the appropriate ceremonies of performance. And if you can't follow that, while not always was, always will be as part of it. Here's one of the leaflets that you can get off their website to teach you about how you can change the subject and how you can get the message.
For the kids.
To believe what you believe, regardless of what their parents or grandparents do. So here's my simple one. If you're a parent and you're enrolling your kid at school, ask what the school's policy is when it comes to welcome the country. If you're at a school assembly and you see they always was, always will be, go and talk to the principal, send them a letter the next day, because if they assume everyone's cool and rite with it,
nothing changes. Don't be abusive, certainly not violent. Don't get in people's faces, don't embarrass your kids, don't embarrass.
Other people's kids. It's not the kid's fault.
It's the people who are teaching the kids what they are supposed to do in a formal setting like assembly. Way back when it was the Lord's prayer. In between, it's been the national anthem. But now this stuff and people wonder why people end up doing what that person was doing on the coal train, and why they say what they say. Can we play them one more time? Listen to what they say about our country with the boltman knows that again didn't come from a tree.
Hi there, everybody, My name is Sky. I'm twenty two.
Are you sar?
They pronounce, and I am currently.
On a tree set.
I'm here on one a real country. I am here for climate justice. So sow it sucks. I mean the continent itself, whatever you want to call that continent is a very beautiful place. But it's built on extraction. It's built on stolen land. The nation state is built on stolen land. We export nothing but coal, weapons and misery.
Well, last thing about the States, before we had off to our great debate, the CV, which I'm looking forward to, Broen, Bishop Joe hilde Brand. It's going to be a fun
one tonight. While Joe Biden is of course falling up the stairs and his political fortunes seemingly well as convincing as his gross motor skills, the Supreme Court, of course made its major decision before it went on holidays, and it was giving total legal immunity to a president for the things they do in the ficial capacity of being president, which brings us to Donald Trump. As you know, he's been found guilty by Manhattan jury in my view, in
a rather slanted trial, thirty four different counts. This was all about the record keeping inside New York. But remember a lot of this story had to do with what was happening post when he became the president of the
United States, where he was signing the checks. If he was doing it in the Oval office, is everything in the oval office and official act well, that is now going to be a reason why Trump, who was due to be sentenced on the eleventh of j Lie, will now be sentenced just before the election.
He's local reporting from New York.
The judge overseeing former president Donald Trump's hush money criminal case has delayed sentencing Trump until September eighteenth. Trump had been scheduled to be sentenced in.
Just nine days.
Judge Juan Mashan wrote that he will now weigh how the Supreme Court's decision to allow president's immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts affects this case.
To further underline the point, this is what the judge the judge, who of course was very favorable to the prosecution, yelled at the defense as often as possible, put the gag order in all the rest of it, right, the one who lets Stormy Daniels go on on on and on and on about the night that, of course has no relevance to the bookkeeping stuff. But he realizes that the whole thing may well be falling apart. Quote.
The matter is adjourned to September eighth, teenth, twenty twenty four at ten am for the imposition of sentence if such is still necessary, or other proceedings.
Quick break back with more in a moment.
I'm going to tell you why the biggest political story in the country today was whether or not Bob Catter is going to get a portrait at Parliament House. I'll explain why next with Bromin and Joe don't go anyway.
Thank you very much for watching well.
She's to carry out a champ whenever she turns up, but especially here on a Wednesday night. None of than the lovely Bromin Bishop loved to see you, Joe Hildebrand. Of course we can find randomots of places, but let's put the pol house.
Where do we find the podcast. What's it called? How do people find?
Oh, thank you, The Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. You simply find it wherever you get your podcasts on Spotify, Apple, Just go there Real Story with Joe hilder Brand. It tells you everything you need to know behind the scenes. You thought I was candid on this show, I just fully just unzip the light and let it all hang out. So everything you want to know about what's happening behind the scenes. That's next in politics, Well, it's a podcast, so you can't see it.
You just hear an occasional microphone you know, going.
Well, good stuff, all right, So let's talk about an early election. The assumption was straight after the budget that well, this is the best chance for the Labor Party to get up and over things.
But where we sit now is the Prime Minister is not going to NATO.
I did love the excuse, of course, which was on the seven thirty report, which is, well, we're not really a member and it doesn't really matter if you turn up except he'd gone the previous two years, could work there, But basically he was caught between an airbus elbow or a meaningless conference overseas and we know which one he ended up choosing to avoid. So discussion early election, early election, the interest rate thing, it feeds into all of it.
But bromin fifty four percent of the country believe they're headed in the wrong direction right now. So an early election. Should that be after August when it's officially possible. Should it be December, after Queensland has got out of the way. Do you think those things are still live options.
I still think an early election is quite likely, most likely, And I say that because nothing has changed. What we've seen is that the Treasurer has pitied himself against the preserved back and he really isn't anxious to be challenged once litt alone twice. So if there is an increase in August, then it's quite likely there'll be another one as well.
He could go on the seventh.
Of September, he could go on the seventh of December. If he goes on the seventh of September, it's on the old boundaries. He may decide that's an advantage. If he goes on the seventh of December, it's on the new boundaries. And of course, the really interesting thing is that if there's no interest rate rise, in August, then
it makes going earlier even more attractive. But if there's an interest rate rise in August, it's quite likely there'll be a second one, and he doesn't want to be found wanting twice.
So Joe, this is the central question right in terms of the calculation. Look, it's the Prime minister. He makes his decisions. He says he's going full term, right, But the calculus is, is there going to be another interest rate rise? Every indication from the Reserve Bank, every piece of information in and around the Reserve Bank is yes.
Yes. That wasn't their entire picture around the budget that there wouldn't be.
Yeah, look it was.
And obviously they didn't frame the budget anticipating or expecting or attempting to fuel an interest rate rise, although there was plenty of commentary around that, so I can understand that they directly said it wouldn't have. I still don't yeah, I still don't understand the advantage in going early either.
You're going to go, you know, just after people have coppted it in the neck with another rate rise, with the prospect of another one on the way, and the government saying, hey, let us remember who brought you to the dance, then you've still got the problem of Queensland, like they're trying to win back seats from the Greens in Queensland, as if that's going to happen with Steven Miles still as Premier.
I just turned December no book.
I've got to let well, they've got to let Queenslanders get it out of their system. If you look at what happened in Victoria in nineteen ninety three when Keating got a swing to him after there was a massive swing against the Brumby government sorry and the Cane government then became Brumby opposition in October I think it was ninety two. That took about three four months. It was October to March. I think it was at a much different menus and a much much different media.
So I got but let's not get too far out of you can't start three.
But what I'm saying is you can't just go all right November.
Everyone hates labor.
Okay, there you go, got that out of your sistant.
We'll go in to December. I think it needs a bit more time. Remember, and again I think you want we want to wait until just in fact, just the'll be finished one second you want to, I think wait until have the hope that once if there is an interest rate rise, that the next.
Move will be down and so, and that's what they'll be hoping in the first half of it.
That's my starying.
No, no, no, there are two other points, and that very simply that there is a royal visit coming which would be just before December seven, and that would possibly wash over whatever happens up there in Queensland.
You've also got the fact that.
They're going to spend an enormous amount of money advertising how lucky you are to be getting these tax cuts.
They're not going to last till next year.
No, that's it too little to start.
And so all the money that they're spending now, the rebates for your electricity, all the money they're pushing in which is pushing up inflation. Despite the fact that the snake charmer says it's not so, it is in my view still quite likely, most likely, and earlier.
Left all right, well we won't watch and see. But those are the stakes. And again you're super political nerd like us, so we would talk about these things all as the options, which brings me to what I think was one of if not the biggest thing that actually happened in cambrid To day in and around politics, which is, will the governor opposition agree to the idea that Bobcatter
should have his own portrait in the power? Now He's served for a long period of time, and I'm sure there's whole series of things that qualify you for the discussion, But why would he be getting a portrait in particular because there will be a minority government after the next election, meaning that they may well need a certain vote from
a certain person. How loony is my suggestion here, Bromwin, Because again, now again there are things that qualify, and he qualifies as as to be remembered for all times a great representative of his community. But Jesus, isn't it convenient if you can help facilitate a place in history at the same time as plays back in my minority government?
Yeah?
Wow, how works? Or not at all?
I can see that a poor motive on behalf of a poor government which we've got. But I think bobcat is better than that. If they're going to have his portrait painted and hung in the Parliament.
Great, I like Bob Katy, I love.
I'm just saying Jesus, isn't it convenient of all of the long serving MPs the one who we're going to yeah, the one are we going to give a.
Point to two? It has a vote on the minority government and it.
Is just another example to announce it now because it's part of the early election.
And that's and that's that's my point too, Joe, which is that you're seeing right that you saw all of those finance reforms in and around the Teals, which basically we're going to cap how much they could spend not at this election but the next election. All of that's been parked. Why because you may need one or two of them.
On the other side, I think I can exclusively revealed that the government would much rather govern with the confidence of Bob Catter.
Than the Greens and Greens all the Teals.
So that certainly the hope, like the best the best hope for the party now I think among most hardheads is minority government without having to rely on the Greens or the Teals. So I think it's about four others. There's Bob Cartter, Mecca Sharky, maybe Held Hanes. I don't actually counts the Teal or not or another one. But they don't want to go. They don't want to touch the Greens or the.
Teals with it.
But they might think they can buy Bob Catter, but I don't think they can.
But of course I'm not sedesting, and I'm just saying this part of the butter rup right.
As part of the butter I do not they've reached. They've reached into this as a part of the bout.
How is the other side going to form government?
Which brings me to Maths everyone, which is okay, if they're able to have a minority government to say that it's seventy two seats they need seventy six, there is enough of a cross bench before you have to go shopping to Teals or Greens.
Okay, yay.
However, upstairs you can't do anything without the Greens. That's the way it currently works, let alone post and election, which brings us to the whole Fatoma thing. I don't want to talk about the Muslim vote stuff, don't want to talk about the labor ratnus. I want to talk about Maths here and again the power it gives you in the parliament right now. I had a look at this today, which is the long details. If we can guys here which is about the senators that is currently
made up. If I've got my numbers wrong, correct me in any way, you need thirty nine for a majority. Currently Labor has twenty five. This is if Fatima goes, which the expectation is she goes tomorrow. LNP thirty one, Greens eleven one, Nation two. But how's this Lamby, Pocock, Thorpe, the former Lamby Tyrrel is out on our own, and of course Fatima would go out on our own. So how does that work mathematically for Labor get anything done after the midwinter break? They need all of Labor, all
of Greens, and three of the five cross benches. They would most likely always have Thorpe, always have Pocock, always have Lamby right, But there's a bit of shopping around for the opposition though there's basically no path to get anything done. Why because all of their senators, all of one nation and all of the cross bench.
You still need one Green.
So that puts the cross Bench obviously in an incredibly powerful position. But it means whatever games they're going to pretend after the next election, we don't need the Greens to govern and we're not in a coalition. They can't pass a law without them today.
Correct, Correct.
And anybody who says that they're going to be able to have had minority government without Greens participating is having themselves on correct it. If you vote Labor for a minority government, you cop the Greens.
And that's just a fact of life. And the Greens hate Australia.
They hate the nation state, they hate the people, they hate what we believe in, they.
Hate what we've achieved.
They are a loathsome group of people and they will destroy this nation.
I can't agree more.
And that's why we should vote for Labor for majority government.
I don't think so, Joe, but it is fascinating again the numbers of the mets right. You will see in the next twenty four hours. Should she presumably pull upin on Labor, Oh, the consequence. Look, they've got to path through the Senate now. They can do it with or without her mathematically, That's my point. The value, of course,
is when everything's being negotiated all the time. Afterwards, whatever the price of her vote will end up being, we'll all wait, we'll all see, we'll all hold our hands together, and will all go goodness me.
Well, I just think there's something else to say. I think, looking at the involvement of the vote whisperer, the sudden announcement of the Muslim vote movement, I think this has been going.
On for hell of a lot longer than this question of whether or not she got.
Well, and Elbows kind of said this.
I think, yeah, No, I think it's been reported, and I've had sources tell me that this has been going on for a matter of weeks and that that is just disgraceful treachery no matter what.
But but it isn't.
But again, but I mean, this is what you get, Joe, when you pick a token candidate on your Senate ticket because you think it's smart, have an ethnic woman, and she won't get up anyway, because we won't get three up.
Yeah.
Well, look, I essentially it is. It is just crazy politics.
It's like when we gave preferences to let mister Band into the Lower House.
It was insane.
Yeah, I certainly hope they never made that mistake again. In my position on fatima payment as crystal clear, I think which is an absolute which.
Brings me to preferences at some point, at some point to save the Liberals from the Teals, and to save labor from partition of potential sectarian candidate. Perhaps they should preference each other before.
They start preferening.
I'm going to go to a break. Come on, you know how this works. I'm going to do a break after in a second, Joe Biden. What these guys think are going to happen, not just what should happen on a second, Oh good one tonight, good meaty conversation. I'm gonna feel And we've got a four hour car park session after this as well.
With Jo Hildebrand and with brob and Bishop.
You know, when I've got that glint in mind and data in my head, away we go. So I honestly can't tell you tonight whether Biden is going to get pushed out or whether he's going to break himself in, all right, because clearly all of the people with the power to break himself in would do it for him, and all of the people who say we're losing, we're going to keep losing under this guy, are going to
keep the role ongoing. But if it gets to a convention, the first vote has to be for Biden, with all of the delegates that are hands, so it's all in his favor to basically the decision of crash or crash through.
What's your sense?
I mean, I get the noise, I get the reason, but also the basic ego and there's no greater regor than the president of the United States is do not leave.
Well, here's there's obviously a strong contingent within the Democrat Party that wants to blast him out, and hence the whole scenario of the debate being set up. And I watched CNN straight after that. What's them to a man all repeating the same line. Then you've seen commentator after commentator coming up. The one who is really not wanting to leave the White House is obviously Jill Biden, and the son wants the father to stay there so he
can pardon him. There are definitely two people for locking in, and there will be other people who lose their jobs, but there's going to be a whole lot of people of congressman and senators who see their own seats going and nothing motivated to move more than when they're under threat. So you know, it could come up to the situation like LBG when he said I'm going went to the to the convention.
And all hell broke loose, and of course we've.
Got and ironically it's in the exact same location, sixty hippie skulls.
We can't see how he stays. I can't see how anyone outside his own immediate family wouldn't be saying you have to get.
Out of there.
I have no doubt that Jill has.
You know, they've got all the power stay. They've got all the power to stay.
There is I think some clause that was introduced in twenty sixteen where if someone's deemed not to be of sound mental health, they could blast him out. So they could do that, then there's the CIA. They did it in sixty three people, and you know what I'm talking about it They did not, of course, But the point being, I just thought, I get in trouble if I think that I think that, I think I think he will have to be blasted out. As Brodwan said, always back
self interested selling horse. You note it's really trying.
Thank you very much, guys, I do appreciate it. Look, I know you guys are deeply invested in whether it's
gonna be trumple Biden. And there isn't a place I go in the countryhere people don't say so is Trump gonna So the plan between now and when this happens is to show you all the information, all right, not just about you know, my sizeable gut guessing in which direction, which way or the other my sense Just again, if you're somebody who is wanting a result when it comes to Trump, the worst thing is for Biden to go, because well then there's a new face and all the
rest of it in the media who will have achieved one goal go and try to achieve another. But we all watch and in the meantime, I don't sleep and I watch too much data. Funnily enough, none of it about the UK election because we all know what's going to happen there.
Thank you guys, do appreciate it. We'll see you again tomorrow and night.
Looking forward to Meghan Kelly as our special guest. The late debate is on your Telly all right now, Send me emails anytime you want. Paul Itskuynews dot com dot are you