Paul Murray Live | 29 July

the flower girls. Wait till forty years time, right, forty years time, when they it's their moment. But it was beautiful. Congrats Nomadic Congrats Toadom and al Jason photos a little later in the week now tonight. Lots to get to, including yes, the shuffling of the deck chairs on the Titanic. The people who will not fail this time despite the fact that they failed last time. I'll show you the data.

White Trump is still winning the presidential race, despite the hype, despite the money, and speaking of what about the bloke who's spent like more than one hundred thousand dollars buying Princess Leia's bikini. It's been a while since it was worn nineteen eighty three, but still he's decided to purchase it for a lot of money. A little bit creepy, but I know it's winter, but it's really freezing at

the moment, isn't it. I don't know about you, but as you've seen sort of, you know, most of us are walking around with slightly sore throats or feel it just like that extra jumper all the rest of it. And it doesn't matter, like when I was in Queensland not that long ago, freezing Victoria of course as always cold, you know, tazzy, you name it cold everywhere, right, So we learned today that there is an eastern frigid cold snap.

It's going to make things even worse for places like Brisbane, where the expectation is that their ten year weather records and temperatures are going to go Canber as always this timing year, but more and longer periods of time under freezing. Of course, we have a weather channel here, so it's helpful to find out why is it so cold this winter?

bar heaters, you probably should replace it by now. But if you've got one of them, please please please make sure that there is nothing If you fell asleep in the chair watching Telly, or if you've got it close to the bed, Please make sure nothing is in contact with the heater. On normal years where there's not huge spikes in the number of lives that are lost during bushfires, there are more people who lose their lives and their

homes during these winter periods of time. So I love you, I need you to be around, Your family needs you to be around. So please be safe with the heaters that are around you because it is very cold.

we know why. But it is kind of amazing when you watch the six PM news or wider political coverage that no one really talks about the reason for the moves that have been made. They get to it eventually, but of course it's the poles now, the polls right now show that in the six months between now and

the most likely next election, the government is behind. Now yes, because of the teals, we don't know what the results going to be, but the almost inevitability of the minority government scenario for labor and deeper minority means more Greens and more crazy is being in charge of things. But poll after Pole News poll has got it. In a

scenario where the coalition's vote is strengthening. Are the polls that one in the Financial Review shows the coalition overtaking the popular vote numbers now fifty one to forty nine for them over in the Resolve poll. Peter Dutton is

edging your head. Why because voters are consistently moving against this government when it comes to the handling of the economy, and it is the only issue, of course, with daylight second, but so little chat about it because of course the PM was out there selling his wares and geez, how brave of him to rearrange his troops, while the rest of the countries is understandably just enjoying the relief that he is watching the Olympics for a couple of weeks.

And I get it, and I thank you for watching us live and certainly listening to us at skynews dot com are you podcast and all the rest of it here, and you are the hardcorese You are the people who have been so loyal to me, to this station for year in, year out, and we've forever thankful. But we know there are millions of people that are just you know, watching diving for the only time they do every four years.

The Prime Minister uses the cover of that distraction to well make the changes that he needed to make because of the underperforming ministers. But the Prime Minister had the stones today to again tell us that up is down and black is white and what is before your very own eyes is a cheap fake like the Biden administration used to say about Joe Biden falling up the stairs. He claims that these major and significant changes, particularly this

significants in and around home affairs. I no changes whatsoever. It's all steady as she goes, it's all continuity. It's all the greatest and most stable government since the best of the Howard years. Of course this isn't true, but that doesn't mean the Prime Minister won't say it.

in and around Parliament House back in twenty nineteen. But the belligerence of this government is just never had been a mistake. Because if you've never had been a mistake, then you get to turn around and say how stable are we now. You didn't say how effective they were, he didn't say how good they were, He didn't say what they had achieved. It just was all about stability. It's the same logic that says when it comes to our economy. Sure, for five quarters in a row, which

is a year and three months. We have been in a per capita recession. You are suffering. Yet because the government gets more money than they were planning out of things like growing bracket creep or maybe turning around an extra resources, they get to say that they're fantastic economic managers. Because there's a budget surplus. You're supposed to believe that despite the fact that you were going backwards. It had been going back every day since this bloke became Prime minister,

with twelve interest rate rises thirteenth on the way. Oh, but they've got a suplus, which means that they know what they're doing. The two little too late tax cuts were, of course, billions of dollars wasted on a political slogan. The idea that they're paying the power bills of the mansions of this country at the same time as it's the exact same amount as the one bedroom unit tells

you everything. It's all about politics, and amazingly, the people who know that the government is statistically in trouble right now. It has had plenty of problems. It has failed to deliver on its central promise on things like cost of living and interest rates are this close to going up again because inflation is not under control yet. Haven't listen to how most of them spoke today. They spoke as if they were taking it from the perspective of the

Prime minister. Now, occasionally some people might agree because this is their preferred side of politics. But the reason they reshuffled the government is because they are behind in the polls and they are failing to meet their promise. But this stuff could have been written by Albo himself.

I'll get to that in a second. But do you not find it amazing that all of the people who are paid to talk about politics for a living, who clearly preferred this government because this government was a refresh which means they've all started to have their new relationships and so often, and it doesn't matter, by the way, whether we're talking about generally speaking, business journalism, entertainment journalism, sports journalism, or in this case, political journalism, access to

the people in power is vitally important. Why because quite often the media demands fresh, new, exclusive stories, and very

rarely those stories are critical of the government. Instead their little bits of information from the government, or you're able to show look how powerful I am because I can pick up the phone and get a minister to turn up and talk to me, Which is why you get this scenario where rather than just being critical of a government that is on one knee, that is behind in multiple poles, that has failed on multiple fronts, they don't say it, Oh, it's all just a refresher, rebrand shot

in the arm, no admission of any problems whatsoever. And also an example about like anything right and again I talk about politics. Our obsession is politics. But it's the same when a whole bunch of new people are brought in to talk about business, or a whole bunch of new people cover the courts, or a whole bunch of

new people cover the entertainment industry. Is that when people who haven't been around for long enough, well, they don't remember the failures of the past, which in part would be perhaps the reason why there is so little response to Tony Burke being made the Home Affairs and Immigration Minister. Now, this is a bloke who was an immigration minister in

the failed former Labor government. His performance as the migration minister back then was highlighted by the Liberal Party today on social media where six thousand, six and a half thousand illegal arrivals came in and eighty three boats. Those boats were not turned back. They ended up coming to the mainland, they ended up going into detention and after they went through a process they probably got released along with thousands of others by this government under temporary protection VISUS.

Can someone somewhere please explain to me how the solution to the Home Affairs problem is to put back in charge of the blood bank the dracula who had already had his fangs into it. I don't understand now. Again, there are many people around in politics who have not been here for a New York minute, who have seen these things come and go. But where was this point being made? Again? Think about any underperforming minister from any government that you can think of, right team, read team blue,

good guy, bad guy, men, women, whatever, senators, MPs. The idea that somebody who had failed in a portfolio then labor had lost government, Labour comes back to government and the same person who had failed once before gets another crack at it. Thankfully Andrew Hasty was not in the Parliament, but certainly remembers that this blow not all he's cracked up to me.

very strong Muslim vote in Western Sydney. They're very energized around the gaza issue and Tony Burke's under pressure and so this is about giving him a portfolio that has cachet with the migrant community and empowering him so that he can hold this seat.

up to make that point. Meantime, in the real world, now, it doesn't matter whether you are sitting in your dream home on a farm, you've got your favorite dogs around you, you've got your feet up and you're nice and warm, or whether you're in a suburb in a house that is not your dream house, but it's good enough for you because you love it very much. So we are frightened about interest rates right now. Now Australians are very worried about what is going to happen in the next

little while. When it comes to the reserve back Inflation is sitting at a stage where it is starting to go back up. If it keeps going up, they are going to put up interest rates. All of that is going to, of course be a huge problem. Now again, if the reason why we had to have all of the changes in and around the ministry was because obviously some people were underperforming, obviously others were breaking promises, well

what about the scenario in and around the economy. Now, of course it would be madness to suggest that this Prime Minister would make anything as serious as an omission that they're not managing the economy. Well, but Jim Charmers is out and about trying to tell you that everything's okay when it comes to inflation, despite the fact that he and the Reserve Bank agreed it needs to be between two and three percent last month or sorry, I should say, in May. We'll get our numbers for June shortly.

Last month in May it was four percent and it started to go back up. Yet he's out there telling everyone, don't worry, we're on top of inflation. The same budget that pumped billions of dollars in a slow, trickled fashion, but still billions of dollars back into the economy for people to spend, which wasn't going to affect you inflation. Still, trust me, because inflation, despite the fact that the evidence

is it's going in the wrong direction. He just thinks he can magically will it in the opposite direction.

hundreds of thousands of people. We learned last week it's about eight hundred thousand people that will move into mortgage stress, on top of the minions more who were already there mortgage stress to find as people literally in the scenario where they are paying too much when it comes to being able to live somewhere and there's not enough left over to pay for the rest of their time and

it's not because they want to live fancy life. It's because there have been twelve interstrate rises since this government came to power. Oh but everything's fine and we're the most consistent government of all time. And the media turn around and basically give a version of the talking points back. Maybe you will pay any attention because the Olympics are

on fed income. But another bit of data about how tough times are right now, and it is all directly linked to another problem that apparently this government was absolutely going to solve, well certainly dramatically solved, to the tune of two hundred and seventy five dollars by next year, and that is power prices. Now. As crippling as power prices are for every family in the country, they are

crippling for business. Think about this about your local chicken shop, real est, that agent, whatever it is, If they've got the lights on, they're sucking in power. The bills that they have to pay are not you know, a few hundred or maybe a thousand dollars a quarter, they are thousands of dollars. That's an awful lot of dumplings and somosas that you have to sell to be able to keep your head above water or obviously that was bread.

But what about the hospitality industry. Well, we learned that the number of businesses that have just gone and could put in the past twelve months is surging compared to the previous year. This is not the responsibility of the former government, but the data about this government. The Australian hospitality and retail industries fail at record numbers in twenty twenty four. Why because cost of living and the cost

of power. Hospitality business has failed at the fastest rates on record in the twenty twenty four financial year as sawing food and energy prices and a pullback and consumer spending pushed cafes and restaurants to the wall. See you know this and I know this, but there's putting people inside government who don't quite understand that there's an actual restaurant on the other end of these things. It's not just magically food is grown inside your phone and then

somebody brings it to your house. Let alone, if you decide not to go back to the office, I'm going to work from home for ever, that the same business that you rely for the coffee, the sausage roll or anything else to be available. The next time you do wander into work once a month, Well, guess what when people aren't going back to work, those businesses don't have

enough income. They hit the wall. The businesses that are trying to desperately hold on know that most people will end up ordering their food through some sort of app that'll take a third of the price. While the cost of insurance keeps going up, the cost of power keeps

going up, the cost of wages keeps going up. But remember, as I have said to you so many times, the whole economic project of the modern left Labor Party is that they will be able to achieve a permanent electoral majority that does not require small business that is contemptuous

of business that has a life outside of government. Now, sure they need you for the company tax, and they'll take that break, but remember the single biggest source of income for the federal government is not the GST, is not company tax, but is the pay as you go

pay packets of each and every Australian worker. The project that we've seen play out in Victoria and in Queensland, Western Australia and other places where labor has been in power for so long is that they hire so many public servants that you are either dependent on the government because you work for the government, they increase so much welfare or handout money that they end up with a scenario where they want you to be dependent on the government to help supplement your wage, or if you are

in business, they want government to be the biggest client. So therefore you will not upset the apple cart. The people who live outside of that system, small business, the very people who are hitting the wall at record numbers. But because most of the people who talk about politics are part of this over reliance and inter reliance on government, they don't pay attention to it. We'll just order from another option on the phone where that app will take up to a third of their moneies. Back to the

quotes here again. After those hospitality rates and record numbers of shutdowns so far this year, the new data from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission shows that accommodation and food services insolvency appointments rose faster than any other sector

in the past twelve months. The number of collapses had skyrocketed by fifty percent to sixteen hundred and sixty seven, competed to its previous high of about one thousand, the year before retail trade appointments, that being people who had ended up going to the wall. Insolvencies and administrators that

had surged by forty two percent. If all the numbers and all the words are boring to you, here's the graph this year eleven and a bit thousand, the previous year when costant living crisis was still an issue, seven almost eight thousand. These are good, decent people who went all in on their business and their businesses hit the wall. This government could not care less. Meantime, another indiscy here

about how people are doing it tough. The people who are just completely ignored by this government couldn't care less because again, you've got to work for the government, or you've got to be dependent on the government, or your client's got to be the government. And then we can gave about sixty seventy percent of the vote and it doesn't matter what anyone else says. The machine much is on.

What about people with cars? Numbers out today about the number of people who are not making their car repayments. If you're like enough to pay your car off, you're driving around in an old one, well good luck to you. But there are plenty of people who for a whole bunch of ways and different finance options they're trying to

pay one off and car repositions. Guess what they have surged another sign of just how bad things are, so they can give themselves a pat on the back and a gold star and a little tickle on the tummy from the media. The reality in the community is we don't buy the bs that comes out of these people. The automotive auction house Pickles has described a recent spike in a supply of resess vehicles as significant thirteen percent up in the number of repossessed cars in the past

six months, eleven over the past three months. They attribute this to the rise of cost of living pressures and a falling of used car prices which have hindered the ability of vehicle owners to refinance their fast appreciating assets. Automotive arrearsed data show from the banking sector that Australians

are falling behind on their car payments. People who have not paid one for three months or ninety days is now twice as many as it was a year ago, according to the details that are coming out of Westpac and then in the West Australian thousands of people in Western Australia have moved back with their parents. Why cost of living. But this government's amazing, right, give us another three years. We're fantastic. We can be arrogant because the

teals will save us. We've got a teal in Western Australia. Feel free to make a change, send a message. Meantime, a number of people are cutting back on how much they're spending on a wedding. I don't think weddings are probably taken up too much of too many people's wedding this weekend on my wedding was perfect, but you get my point. Lots of people spend too much on this stuff. But it cost living means you it's pulling back. Even the ABC reporting on the number of people who are

making and mending their own clothes. Why because apparently the greatest government of all time ain't the greatest government of all time. But the people who are the guardians of the political galaxy, well, they of course believe the single problem here is no one in the government. It's Peter Dutton chief amongst them, of course, has lefty Laura Tingle there, who remember any attack on her is unhelpful. As she said to her or unhelpful to the ABC. Well, too bad,

We've got the tape. And you think this is a racist country, We are a racist campule.

just keeps on going. She sat down with another hardcore lefty who replaced a previous hardcore lefty on Radio National listened to by hardcore lefties, to yet again talk about Peter Dutton despite everything that I just showed you, data that I just showed you about how the country's going in the wrong direction. She sat down and she had a chat with the blog hosting the late night life

program on Radio National. Don't worry, most of the country doesn't listen to it either, and she sarcastically accused the opposition leader of plugging nuclear power that offers you a future unlike those terrible renewables that the Labour government is offering. The host, then healthy reminded Tingle that listeners, many young young'ins wouldn't have a clue about the nuclear disasters of Chernobyl.

So that's a problem, yeah, Chernobyl. That's the reason why Peter Dutton's the problem, because nuclear power, which is by the way, available in what's that Paris, and they're not canceling the Olympic Games. It's available in Los Angeles where the next Olympic Games. Again, Tingle went on accusing Dunton of using language that's similar to the un Republican presidential

nominee Donald Trump Prize. Of course, the media that is doing their part for the left wing cause, good weekend on the weekend where this was their puff pace and again little tickle on the tummy to the tills, because we've got to get back into that media cycle now, despite the fact that, of course they've had virtually no impact on Australian politics apart from yes, denying the Liberal Party and opportunity to be statistically a chance of what's

happening at the next election. Oh but you know, going into politics, that's taught me I have more courage than I thought. Oh the courage it takes to get everyone giving you the preferences and then all of the media not criticizing you, no matter how badly your performance ever happens to be, must be terrible. How old made giggling Stephen Miles, the Premier of Queensland. Now this one's been

on the back burner for a while. But you remember when, just after he announced the brand new police Commissioner he decided to go and tour the parts of queens And that are heavily affected by youth crime. Well, as we pointed out the time, there was a particularly offensive moment when not one but two private jets paid for by the taxpayer, landed in the same place for the same announcement, because apparently they couldn't all work out that they could

all fit on one jet. No, no, that wasn't allowable. We found out that, by the way, in the past couple of days about exactly how much this nonsense cost. One hundred and seventy thousand dollars is what the Queen's Land taxpayer was paying for not one but two private jets, one to take the Premier, one to take the police commissioner. They couldn't possibly fly on the same plane. When pushed on it last week, Steven Miles, well, of course he had an excuse for that, didn't he.

crime Queensland. Come on, you got a chance. I have deep faith in you. But I was, of course, so to put disappointed last time. We'll see what happens when voting happens at the end of October. Plenty more between now and then when it comes to the queens and election. And yeah, I mentioned the Princess Leia bikini. Now, as we know, it's sort of super nerd time at the moment, with Dead Evil and Wolverine number one in the box

office all over the world, comic cons just come. A bloke paid one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars for the as worn Bikini when Princess Layer was captured by Jab of the Hut. Yes, I do understand the resemblance. But I've grown a bid since then. One hundred and seventy five thousand dollars. Okay, that's expensive cosplay. Now let's talk here about the latest when it comes to Trump and Harris. Now, she's raised a lot of money, sure,

huge amount of money, and it does show enthusiasm. Basically, I was looking at some data about this before. Remember about Biden. Democrats were going to vote for them, but they won't particularly enthusiastic about him. Well, now basically the same amount of people who are going to vote Democrat are enthusiastic about the Democrat. But thankfully, the latest numbers show us that the number of people wanting to vote for Trump is basically as high as it's ever been.

It's just the comparison the Democrats. It's now tighter, but the enthusiasm gap is still higher than where the Democrats are. But with this more than two hundred million American dollars which have been raised by the Harris campaign in a week, they're spending it on ads like this, and I've got to say I'm not entirely sure. This is an ad for somebody who's running for president, or it's like an

ad in a movie about someone running for president. Production values are fantastic, but almost too good.

But for its part, the Trump campaign is finding its fate on how to respond now obviously the first week and all of the news and all the rest of it and all of the excitement, but still fundamentally in this race, according to all of the polls, that we have to this moment, all of the betting that we have to this moment. All of the swing state data to this moment is that Trump is still winning. He's winning by small margins in some areas, by the same

big margins in other areas. Currently in the electoral college, remember it needs two hundred and seventy votes to be the president. The current average is that he's over three hundred, which is basically the same margin that Biden had over Trump four years ago. So Trump is still winning. Harris is closer, but fundamentally more people agree with Trump on the economy and on immigration, and messages like this from the Trump campaign are seeking to drive it home.

We'll all find out together quick break back with more we need to talk about here on Paul Murray Live. Let's get into a great conversation. Been looking forward to this one all day. The wonderful Sam Crosby joining me in the man cave right now, and the wonderful Senator Matt Canavan as well. We love these chatel On Monday night, he's joining us, of course from a beautiful North Queensland. So lads, it's all it's all better now, like the government's fine poles will go back. There was no sacking

of anyone the Prime Minister. When asked why was Giles moved or clear Onneil because there was a reshuffle, was his answer. Sam, do you feel like you know there's been a complete revolution?

want people to notice. Look, I think the immigration, as we've talked about many times on this show, immigration become this weeping sow for labor that they needed to quarter ze. They needed to do something to stop the bad news stories and move on. Tony Burke, I think we'll do that, genuinely, I think we'll do that. I'm sure Matt's got a different view, and I'm sure you've got a different view

about his handling of industrial relations within labor. He is seen as an absolute success on this You know, every.

other people can. My pick is you're going to see this immigration issue in the next six months, right around the time of the next election, completely fade from from the headlines.

living in fantasyland, aren't we. When if the reason these people had to be moved was because there's a reshuffle, why did the Attorney General keep in their position, why did the ndies minister get me? The whole point was they were underperforming and they had to get moved. Now, the Prime Minister always comes up with a little dance series of words to make it seem like, you know,

going backwards is going forwards. But if this was an area that was hurting, feel free to admit that you were getting it wrong.

fact that it's all there to be seen. Right, you saw what was said, which was a poor metaphor, which was about voting, not about shooting, not about killing, but about voting. He then apologized, Oh, but the Prime Minister was indignant and this was the story of the day and you know all the Karens on the internet going crazy. Right, So, Sam, is this the single greatest reason why Barnaby Jews should be scrubbed from the political record here? Because again, should

you said it? No, But when you apologize, and if you apologize quickly and it was a poor metaphor, then I'm not really going to set my hair on fire for four days about it.

But for heaven's sakes, this is a week after the former president of the United States was shot and you're using a gun metaphor at the best of times, but a protracted gun metaphor where we're talking about loading a magazine of Sure, sure, sure to use your paper on the ballot, but not hillpe hold on, hold on, he's talking about a minister who needs a protection because of the large number of verified threats that he and his family get.

consequence to all of that. But I find nine times out of ten that it's okay to apologize. And I live on this sliding scale. We're not everything equals you know, not everything equals life in jail. Sometimes it's just an awkward day, a slightly embarrassing day, you know, you know, sort of take your medicine sort of stuff. But you know,

we'll see where it all lands anyway. QUI break'll talk about the State's and a whole lot more next with these boys, because I think they will thoroughly agree that Kamala Harris is amazing. Thanks very much for watching. Let's talk American politics now with two blokes who are just as invested in it. But we all know Australia's most awesome place ever. But these two big blokes have got

plenty to say about it, Matt Canavan and Sam Crosby. Matt, I'm going to start with you, okay, Kamala Harris, basically, whatever was holding back the money for Biden. It's surging, right, a couple hundred million dollars, But we're now sort of through a phase where we didn't know what was happening with the polls. There's enough polling to suggest that, of course she's replaced much of the deficit of Biden, but she hasn't overtaken Trump the in the swing states and

on the key issues. As a person who wants Trump up and over the top, how do you feel a week into this, Well, look, it's probably.

belt states. That's where the selection comes down to. And you look at the electoral map, it all comes down to states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, although that's pretty much in the red column now. So the question is does a relatively left wing or the most left wing in some measures, a former senator from California, from San Francisco, be that as it may help the Democrats in those states.

I don't know, We'll She'll have to pull off an amazing level of flexibility that we're not even seeing in the gymnastics at the Olympics to straddle San Francisco to all the way to Cleveland.

Union state, is kind of in the Trump column. Right. So there are a few things that are surprising to this point, regardless of whether it was Biden or Harris. And sure, I get it, there's the relief that you've got somebody to fight. You've got a boxer in the fight. But what's your sense of okay after the first week in the Yay.

but they're also small. You can you can either side can absolutely win without holding those correct you know, I think genuinely the way it will come down to is Pennsylvania. Whoever wins Philly will win, will win the presidency.

if he does actually get it. Mark Kelly's the other one from Arizona Correck, you know. And I think it would be cool to have a former fighter pilot and former astronaut as a vice president.

But the crazy cat lady stuff, which yes, there's a context, and all the rest of her, does it like, is it real as a reason why people would think twice or the reality is if you've already said you for Trump by now, it doesn't matter who's with him.

still priorities. Thank you guys to appreciate it. We'll talk again this time next week and plenty more to talk about on the show tomorrow night. You can as always send me an email. Paul itsguydnews dot com dot you. Thank you to everyone in Newcastle. We had a spectacular time and stand by for the late debate right now.