Paul Murray Live | 27 October

climbed the mountain, slayed the dragon, all of that business. Well, last night I was in the room when David Crucif Foley took to the stage about eleven o'clock Brisbane Times. I was pretty damn late compared to what the expectation was. But I'll give you the tip. The reason why this took so long is because the counting took so long, not because the result was in doubt. I'll have something to say about that a little bit later. But a

new broom and a fresh start David Crucier Fuley. How refreshing is this from a Queensland premier, not the type we've had for the past ten years. Of course, he talked about the choice of hope over fear, and that largely was the election. I'll get into great detail about what the media thought this election was about. What the media thought was happening in the final days of this election. But the Queensland voters, when they voted and how they voted,

has told us what this election clearly was about. Now they're essentially was two tracks here. People have voted on the day, people who voted early. The people who voted early, well, they of course turned around and delivered an absolute thumper year. Now the reason why when we were in that room last night on the LNP and sort of the first hour, okay, maybe they're just getting started the second hour, what's really

going on the third hour? Okay, surely it's known by now. Well, that's because the extreme majority of the vote happened before election day and the way that I understand the queens and Electoral Commission did its counting was that it counted out the election day because all of that was in one box. And after they had done that, that's when they turned to the way bigger box, which had been the early vote. Now the queens and Electal Commission has

to change. They either need more people or they need new leadership, because this is not the first time there's been a problem. And when I say problem, I mean delay or lack of information. There were some seats that weren't getting updated for a couple of hours, and that meant that that couple of hour window was an opportunity for the Labor Party and its spinners to pretend that somehow magically they had held on to government despite losing up to maybe fifteen seats.

one week longer we would have won. How look at the primary vote, Labour went down six point eight percent, the LNP went up by six points, which meant people went from the Team red side of the road and they walked straight across to the LMP. The minor party vote, which i'll explain in greater detail a little bit later, well it didn't appear. I also think people are getting a bit too excited about pretending that the Greens are

dead all across queens and that's not true. But how can I not talk about Giggles Miles the former Premiere of Queensland. Don't that feel good to say the former Premiere of Queensland. Now, he didn't come out and give a speech when it had become clear that not only had he lost government, but the LNP was going to get a majority instead. He was making the most of this awkward moment in the counting. Remember the results aren't changed.

The counting of them was the moment for him to be able to walk out there and pretend that somehow he had had a triumph. I have never seen a person who has been swept from government. Remember they lost thirteen seats, They could end up losing fifteen don swept. Domestos has been applied, stain has been removed yet because the Labor Party lives in this sort of fake world where when they lose they were cheated out of it.

When they win. It's a revolution for the ages that this bloke, who is a hyperpartisan, used the moment when post election you've got to let the air out of the balloon. It's how we don't end up as widely rilled up as places like the United States, when elections are very close and there's a couple of seats in it and there'll be a negotiation for who's going to make the government. Well, I understand why people give speeches to say they're still in with a shot. But the

bloke was rejected. He was rejected as not the preferred premier. He was rejected as not the man with the answers for Queensland. He was rejected for the laughing about youth crime. He was rejected for trying to buy off an electorate that even if they liked some of the buyoffs, they took the money and said now you go and run away. Unlike the KFC, he had what shut up and take my money. It was I'll take your money. Now you

shut up. But Stephen Miles, hyperpartisan to the end, was talking not to the people of Queensland but to the people in the room. This was an opportunity when hundreds of thousands of people were watching across all the different television networks. They were going to read all the coverage in the Korea mal the next day, and this was a moment where theoretically he would be able to begin

the rebuild. But I think he did himself about as much damage as Paul Keating did after the nine to ninety three election, when instantly Australians went I am not interested in you, and they waited for three years and they got rid of him. In this case, he's going to have to work very hard to come back from this as a way of presenting himself when he lost last night.

so little detail of their agenda. This election finishes with many more questions about the LMP's plans than answers.

real Stephen Miles. We saw through the campaign garbage, we saw through the giggles, we saw through the biofs, and the reality was that the nasty bloke who when the mass came off, showed himself to be that nasty bloke on election night is the bloke who we all know

would behave like that behind the scenes. Brutally. It'll be a long road back for the Labor Party, but in a state where they have been in government for much of the past thirty years with one term exception, they've got plenty of mates in the public service that will leak to them. They've got plenty of mates in the unions that went silent about hospitals and crime that are now going to scandalize every single case to make it look like the new government is more chaotic than the

one that has been moved. But I want to show you two examples. But the type of Labor Party that even people who don't vote for the Labor Party but remember a better Labor Party, don't associate with the current Labor Party. Murray, what is again a hyperpartisan? Who was on television today? And if you can't say we lost at the end of the game, then people know you're not telling the truth. You can say you're disappointed, you can say that people got it wrong, if that's your belief.

But this was the reaction of Senator Murray Watt today justifying the behavior of Miles last night.

passive aggressive level, he could deny. Yes, the hyperpartisans, but the people who wanted the result to be a change of government, to make it seen like there hadn't been a tectonic shift in state politics that will not last forever, only of course registered in four year increments, but something big changed in Queensland. Now, compare Stephen, Miles and Murray.

What with our mate rich O? He wouldn't defend this crap last night, and that's old school labor, the people who say that people always get it right even when you lose, graceless as it was pathetic.

that you're won, and that you're lost. You should be a good winner and not rub people's faces in it. And you should be a good loser and recognize that you have lost, that you got it wrong. Thank goodness, we have Richo on nights like last night. All right, So, as always after elections, I tell you the five things that I want you to think about or that I think we've learnt out of the Queensland election. Let's go through them here. Number One, people made their mind up

very early. The election campaign did not change people's opinion. There was a very different number of people who voted on election day than those who had voted early. And in fact, in all of the seats that the LNP has won, have a look at this. They won the seat of Mackay. There was an eighty one percent early vote in Calandra seventy one percent, Harvey Bay sixty six percent, rock Hampton sixty one there Andoa fifty eight, Nicklin fifty four.

Half of all people had voted early in Pine Rivers and Keppel, almost that in Redcliffe Mundingborough and then yes, you get into the forties, but still a significant number of people McKay voted early. They didn't care about the campaign because they knew that the issues of the past four years were the reason that people were making their decision about the next four years, not the distraction of the past four weeks, which brings me to message number two.

Much of the media, especially here in Queensland or they fell for Labour's lives, They fell for the spin about what was going on here. Now the media has a very strong relationship with the Queensland government. I say that because, as I said, with the exception of the Newman era, it's always been Labor governments. Virtually everyone who ends up being a high profile state political reporter ends up working for the Labor Party because that's the job that's on offer.

Many junior people in and around the media they realize they can get a pay rise of an extra five ten twenty five thousand dollars, which is very attractive when you're a young reporter and they all end up working for the government or for the departments. Mount Kuther is where all the TV stations are. It's the highest point

here in Brisbane. There's an awful lot of people who over the past ten years have made a straight march from working covering Queensland politics to becoming participants for one side of Queensland politics, which means they've all got mates back up on the hill. They've all got mates in the newsrooms everywhere, and they've all got mates in the punditory class, which means those of us that are on the television. If we know one of those people will

why wouldn't you, mate? What do you reckon's going on? What can you hear? What can you will? Surprise? Surprise, guess what they have been saying. Oh mate, that's coming back to us. I'm telling you this abortion thing, I mate, it's frightening everyone and you've seen that pop up in the coverage in the past couple of weeks.

election was a lie. You started to see and more and more articles, and more and more intelligence, and more and more spin, which is why you will have seen on this program, even me with the clear eyes of everything that's bad about this government. Well there must be something to this. So you're looking into this data and that data reality was for some it may well have been an issue, but when what was it? In Mackay

eighty one percent of people voted early. It meant the last week of the campaign where the media was reflecting the spin and then sometimes some people on the ground voters we're repeating to the media is see what I mean, it felt like this was a significant issue, but guess what it wasn't. The significant number of seats that changed were outside of Brisbane, and that in and of itself does present a problem for the LMP, but that's four years down the track. Let's not talk about next election.

This election and the issues from Townsville and up from the Sunny Coast all the way over to Woomba and even in the southeast was of course about youth crime. Now, crime will always exist, no one is ever going to pretend that it's not going to exist. But you want to make sure that when people do horrible things they are punished for it. Henceway adult Crime Adult Time worked as a message. People are sick of stories that they have seen over four years. In fact, they've seen them

over eighties. In fact, I think they've seen them for the entirety of this government, which was that there are story after story after story that in Queensland, if you're ring triple O, the ambulance may not turn up. And if you do get an ambulance to turn up, you're probably gonna have to sit in the back of an ambulance because there's no room in hospitals This is a huge challenge. This will not be fixed in two weeks.

But the LP has made it absolutely clear that their focus is reduce the number of victims of crime and reduce the chances of triplo not working or sitting in the back of an ambulance. Now, Labor has been in power and promised to do both of those things, but there's only so many times they can promise and underdeliver and things get worse before people turn around and say, you know what, goodbye, see you later. And then the last minute changed to Steven Miles. Oh, that was so

energizing for the Labor Party campaign. Well mate, he was in the sidecar when Anastasia Palichet spun and told lies and did everything that she did to drive this joint into the ground. Her backside saved by COVID and gets Health Minister was so in the in Queenslanders saw what they saw, They saw it for a long time out. They voted early and the Labor Party didn't just lose vibe. They bang see you later, goodbye. A majority, a clear majority will now be in place for the LMP. Number

three focus beat theatrics. David Miles, Sorry, David Miles, that's a friend of mine. Hello. David Stephen Miles and David crucif Foley, they had two very different styles. Miles, buddy, buddy with all the journos, and I'm on a jet ski and give them fresh pictures. Because if I give them fresh pictures, you know, and you get the people who work for you, who used to work for them, they run it and you look all, oh, look at me,

look at me. I'm having so much fun. David cruci fully press conference, press conference, press conference, press conference, and when he did the press conference, he would have an example of what the policy was. Queenslanders, as we can see out of this election, they could not care less if the desperate premier was on the back of a

jet ski firing a money canon at people. They saw in David crucifully and the olymp campaign a fresh start for Queensland excellently done and there would have been maximum pressure on them in the past couple of weeks to change to panic. They didn't and that did cause some problems, like the abortion issue, which was garbage from the start because they stuck to the line that they had was

interpreted by the media as an evasiveness. So then the issue became some sort of insight into the potential premier's character as being evasive. What Queenslanders saw by how they voted was that they knew the thing was a lie and their actual priorities well, they matched up with the people who they're hired to be governed for the next four years. Congratulations to David Crucifillie about how he campaign about how he did not fall for the theatrics and

the lies of the other one. Number four, the Greens flamed out. You know that the Greens had two seats here. They have lost one. They'll probably hold on to the other one that they had, but as always they were talking to big game, We're going to win six seats with ballance of power. Rah. You've also heard here that they're faced a nightmare scenario. Well, the Greens vote in certain seats did go down in other seats that did go up. The statewide number I'll get to in a second,

but I'll give you the tip. The reason they lost one of these seats is because the LNP reversed a stupid decision they made at the last election, which was to deny the Labor Party seats, so they gave preferences to the Greens. The Liberal Party preferences not there. Guess what happened to the Greens. Their true support evaporated and they weren't able to hold onto one of their seats. Fifth and final thing worth mentioning here is, and I'm

talking a lot about the queens And election. I'm going to a lot of people watching US on Frederware, particularly in regional Queensland. Not to mention everyone watching US right now, Fox, Tell, Flash and in all the other ways that you can watch US, Air, Samsung, LG, all the different ways that people watch this program. The minor party situation. Now, this basically was a transfer of vote from the MP to

the Labor Party. But if you have a look the Greens vote, they may well have lost a seat, but they remain the same okay, at about nine and a half percent. So all of this they collapsed. That no, the LMP preferences that got them elected didn't get there, and some of their vote was actually up in some suburban seats. So let's not pretend the Greens are dead. As much as you and I would both like it to be the case, one nation held the line, but

sadly haven't been able to get a seat. Congratulations to James James Ashbury for the way that he ran in Keppel and Paul in Hansen for holding onto those numbers. There's no upper House, which means these minor party votes don't get trained into seats in an upper house. KAP basically the same independence down family First. That one point seven percent are also equal preferences, which helped the LNP

legalize cannabis. Now, this statewide number at one point five you're going to think, Paul, what are you talking about here? They only ran in a dozen or so seats, and in some of those seats they got like eight percent of the vote. In fact, in the competition for the last Senate spot after the last federal election, the fight

was between one Nation and legalized cannabis. Now, I'm not speaking up for potsmokers here, I'm not one, right, but this is a little political movement that I think people who may think that the Greens are too wild on social issues, that some of those Green voters, dare I say, to the right of the left of the party. You get my point, They're going to move to legalized cannabis, all right. Legalized cannabis has got people elected in the Victorian,

New South Wales and Western Australian parliaments. I think they're going to crack a Senate seat somewhere at the next election. Could be a silly prediction. We'll all wait and see together, but that's what happened when it came to the minor parties. All right, that's the five things we're talking about out

of the Queensland election. We will discuss it all in a moment or two time here in Brisbane with one of our best mates in Brisbane and the incoming Deputy Premier, because they deserve their moment, they deserve their victory lap and then get on with the job. When everyone is well. The leader and Deputy Leader are sworn in the Morrow Ministry by the end of the week. But a fresh start for Queensan labor. It's been its lives, it's bs,

it's inherent advantages gone great. Queensan gets a wonderful four years fingers crossed. All right, let's talk about some of the other stuff that's around today, including what about Alba In these airline upgrades, now, plenty of people get them, but it's something else when you're a politician. Oh yeah, but I turned around and I declared everything. Surprise, surprise.

The buddy buddy relationship between Albau and Alan Joyce. It resulted in him, basically, apparently according to a new book that's coming out, he had the direct line of the CEO to say, Man, I'm flying over here. Can can I get the upgrade? Oh? Yeah? And what about who else I'm traveling with. The reason all this matters is because Albo, at one point in time when he was getting these gifts, was a transport minister. What would people say if the racing minister was getting gifts from the

racing industry. What would the people say if the planning minister was getting gifts from developers? That's why this is an actual story. And while the Prime Minister can turn around and say, as he has been saying today, nothing to see here. Everything was declared.

So the assumption being that under the bill shorten prime Ministerships Albert would have gone back to being the Transport minister. See why you've got to keep the relationship up. And while all of this may be technically okay, and the rules say technically, as long as you declare it, everything's okay. In Australia there are plenty of politicians who have lost their positions because the rules might have said it's okay,

but the pub test says that it isn't. And while I know the Prime Minister will turn up at a pub for a photo wop, for those of us who actually go to the pub on a Friday Sunday night, have a call to at a club or just like a slap every now and then. Well, we can see what this is, which is a very tight relationship between the people who are the regulator, the minister in this case, and the people they're supposed to be keeping an eye on,

like the referee and the players. There's something weird about this. As I say, I'm not going to suggest full blown scandal and not suggesting it's off to the National Corruption Commission, but there are people who have lost their job for less for their part of the opposition. I think we'll talk about this all week.

of getting it. Let me explain, this Council has put reports out in the past a whole series of demands, many that you and I would disagree with, about separate justice systems and separate child protection systems and essentially sort of a government within a government specifically for Indigenous people. Most of us would have a problem with it, for the government has got it, but it's sort of sitting

on the report and not really responding. So today we read by the US Australian newspaper the Victoria's Truth Telling Body has threatened to haul labor ministers before accountability hearings as it accuses the Allen government of falling short on first peoples who shared their experiences brought on by colonization

and historical injustices. Now, wouldn't that be amazing if, rather than politicians just establishing bodies except taking their report for the photo op and then just sitting on it, that someone would be able to demand accountability that they actually do what was in the report. For example, we still haven't got a formal response from the Australian federal government about the Royal Commission. Remember the Royal Commission report that

was this high into veteran suicide. We still don't know how many of those recommendations they're going to put in place when the stack was that high for the Banking Royal Commission. Again, not many things that were the recommendations actually took place because there's no mechanism to haul people six months or twelve months and he go, hang on

about that thing, what are you doing? Instead? It's left up to people in the media to ask those questions, and of course the politicians know how to move away from it or to distract the rest of the people asking the questions, to say, hey, that one question from that guy over there is really weird. What we're talking you about today is how evil Peter Dutton is. And of course when it comes to accountability in Victoria, there's no greater example of the lack of itn than Andrews

and the behavior in and around COVID. Remember more than seven hundred people died because of the decisions by Andrews and his government around hotel quarantine, and of course no sanctions for anyone. Every single minister or former premier went on to new jobs in the private sector, many of them with jobs of the Grand Prix or all sorts of other places. The only person who didn't get a job was the one who was willing to look at a whistle rather than blow it, and that's the former

health minister. Surprise, surprise, she spoke against the team, so no reward for her and no accountability for everyone else. And as we know, he went on, of course to get a gold medal for, among other things, services to healthcare. Our attention post Queensland is of course all about the United States. We will be there later this week, looking forward to doing shows from there. Now, can I explain to you tonight and I'm going to do this every night until we get there. We are going to talk

about things in America. But the shows are not one hour long America fests, Okay. They will have local guests as you come to expect, like Bromwin and Stephen talking about Australian politics. My editorial will still be the bulk of which about Australian politics. Okay. So if there's something about Albow and the airlines, I'm going to talk about that at the same amount of details I'm going to

talk about stuff in the United States. Okay. So if you see you'll read or see anything on your program guide that we're in the US, don't just assume Wall the war. Paul's going to boor US with data about the US election. We'll have some fun stories and fun things to do in America. We'll have a look at the presidential election. Obviously, on the day it happens, that'll

be the shark. But between now and then, we will keep weaving in the Australian news because that's the reason that you watch us, and I'm so grateful that you always do. So let's talk about what happened since last we spoke. Kamala Harris big rally, thirty thousand people, Beyonce. For some reason, Beyonce did not see She turned out as a mother, not as a performer. Michelle Obama was at another rally, because apparently celebrities distract you from how

terrible the candidate is. Where Michelle Obama said this weird theme, Pamela.

had twenty five million people watch it on YouTube. Millions more have listened to it, either with people ripping it off from YouTube or through Spotify and the podcast version of things, which means the smarter play was to sit down and do an interview that's literally observed by millions of people in a weekend, as opposed to the star studded rallies that really don't have much of an echo. As for the latest numbers, they remain the same all the swing states, So the averages are still in favor

of Trump. In Arizona, he's pretty clear there. However, it's less than a point in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina. If like me, that gives you confidence because they always undercount his vote by a couple of percent, that's why you think that he's about to win. But I do want to put a data point here to tell you why everyone keeps saying that it's close. New York Times poll, Yes, I know, but still let me explain New York Times

pole Nationally it's level. That's great for Trump. Okay, normally the Democrat has to be at least two to three points in front for them to have enough of a way of getting vote in the electoral College. But I do want you to know this. When it comes to men, Trump is beting Harris fifty five to forty one. When it's women and there are more female voters than male voters in the United States, it's fifty four to forty two in favor of Harris. When it comes to young voters,

there's a twelve point advantage for Harris. When it comes to people between the ages of thirty to forty four, there's a five point advantage for Harris. Trump is winning because forty five to sixty four year old are backing him, and they're doing so by the best part of the seven points there and people over the age of sixty five. You'd think this would be Trump's biggest No, it's not Harris winning there. So that's why Democrats think they are still in with a shot. Definitely not in the shots.

The Queensland Labor Party goodbye God for at least four years, fingers crossed. We will talk about that I made here in Brisbane, as well as the dipping Premier incoming Jared Bly plus the rest of the days news and some bold predictions for a week again. I'm glad you're here. Big night here in Bristol. All right, let's get right into it now. Linda Scott, she's free to say whatever she wants. She of course is a former counselor in the city of Sydney. She's later to her bootstraps, good

on her coming on this evening. And Lisa Godard is here in Brucebane. She was on the radio with four WEC last night, and of course a doning Media is her company, which I'm sure he's gonna be very busy. And then next sort of while Lisa, what do you think why do you think what happened happened yesterday?

seven seats. People were at the beginning of the Queensland election campaign predicting that kind of wipeout, and so to see the election be so close, to see the LNP win by so few seats and so many still hanging in the balanced Labor looks like maywell win seats back from the LNP and the Greens. It's a remarkable result for Stephen Miles, and I think he really will go down as a Labor legend, given the circumstances under which he came in and the kind of campaign he ran.

the next seat. You start getting up to eight percent around the sort of eight seats that are needed, let alone the ten, let alone the twelve, and then the places that have taken them beyond that in the majority are much bigger margins. So look, if someone somewhere said they're going to be reduced labor's going to be reduced to the size of a torago. Well guess what they have no idea what they were talking about. I'm quickly

scanning my memory. No, don't believe it was me. But still I don't know what they're talking about to get to government because of how bad the last election was. Really they were never a chance of winning twenty five thirty seats because the margins were so.

Let's talk about the Greens. To me, I think the biggest factor, apart from lots of reasons why people are annoyed with them, was that they lost a seat, maybe a second because there's no LNP preferences in those seats. It's like fifteen twenty thousand votes that didn't end up going their way because the Greens as an overall number in Queensland exactly the same vote.

right now you've got Labor preferencing the Greens. Well that's what she's up against, right So she's been out there, she's been fighting the good fight. But it could be Labor preferences that then push the Greens into that seat.

the witch is dead. It ain't. The vote is exactly the same as it was four years ago, and they have thousands of people that they think can mobilize at a federal election. But the reality is is that labor in Queensland is a lot leftier than labor in Cambrey's. So do the Greens have a different offering when they're going up against well, yes, a left wing version of the Labor Party in our but not as far left as they are.

the Greens were predicting. It's really quite remarkable. And they will, still, should they win seats, rely on a complex flow of preferences to get there. So, for example, in the South Brisbane seat that they're still having a look at whether or not they might win, the Greens will rely on one nation flow to get the Liberals higher than Labor in order to get themselves over the line.

tomorrow will be the Deputy Premier of Queensland. He's in the man cave here in Bricebane.

that rubbish from miles last night. You're in government and you will govern with the majority because you have one.

the beginning, all of that. Right, So you're taking on, frankly, an entire establishment, right, So now that you become the government, how do you make sure that there's not sort of a residual of that establishment that's loyal to getting rid of you rather than the people who will help you achieve what people hire you to do.

because of her age. I was copying abuse on the booth yesterday at Palmerstone and so it just makes it more satisfying that not only did we win government, but we won the Sea of Palmerstone off that bullying behavior

from the Union movement. So to all our volunteers, all our members in the Liberal National Party, I've got to say, from the bottom of day, to my heart, David and my heart, thank you because with out your support handing out the head of OKAS, we wouldn't have had the great success we did last night.